March 8th, 2009 Picks

I’m suspending the results entries, it’s a lot of time and pretty superfluous when one can just check the recaps and match reports. Carwin proved he’s for real with another early knockout. Overton slipped by with a win when Yang duffed a 7-foot putt for birdie. Doni killed AS Roma when he punched away a shot he could have caught, giving Udinese another shot instead of clearing the ball out. Ruoff hurt WVU by airballing a couple of threes at the end of that game. On the bright side Ottawa took out Buffalo on the second night of a back to back for the Sabres. Vancouver continued their hot streak with a win over San Jose. The UW/WSU over/under was close, but a couple of missed free throws ensured it stayed under. Personally, I went 2-3-0 on the day so I’m surprised only one monthly leader gained a game on me. I’ve got to start making up ground, however, so I’ll be gunnin’ for 5-0-0 tomorrow! On to the picks.

1) Atalanta @ AC Milan – 2 goals or fewer
2) Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
3) Chris Barnes/Rhino Page vs. Mika Koivuniemi/Mike Scroggins – Koivuniemi/Scroggins
4) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Orlando
5) Yang, Overton, or Klauk vs. Rest of Field – Yang, Overton, or Klauk win
6) Carl Edwards vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
7) Phoenix Coyotes @ New York Islanders – New York Islanders
8) Shaquille O’Neal vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts.
9) Middle Tennessee State vs. North Texas – Middle Tennessee State
10) Henderson and Singler vs. Hansbrough and Green – Hansbrough and Green pts.
11) Carlos Lee vs. Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez records more total bases
12) Montreal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
13) David Wright vs. Bobby Abreu – Abreu records more total bases
14) South Alabama vs. Troy – Troy

I’ll be taking the under in soccer, Koivuniemi/Scroggins, NY Islanders, Montreal, and Troy… oooorrrrr under in soccer, Rangers, Hansbrough/Green, Troy… OK, after some more thought Carey Price is going to get served by Dallas’ offense, so I’ll go with the Stars.

Analysis
1) First off, Atalanta have scored more than one goal in seven of their 26 games this season. Of those they have accomplished this only once on the road, scoring two goals against Palermo. Floccari and Pinto scored one goal each, and Floccari is out for this game, along with top goal scorers Doni and Vieri. AC Milan are ravaged by injuries, with Borriello and Ronaldinho out in the front, Kaka, Gattuso, and Ambrosini out at midfield, and Nesta, Gattuso, Kaladze, and Favalli out on defense. I think they will score between two and three goals, with the most likely score being Atalanta 1 – 1 AC Milan. So I will take the under here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

2) The Boston Bruins have never split a back to back in their 12 this season. They’ve won both games nine times and lost both games three times. If Thomas or Rask is in net it would boost my personal confidence in this continuing since Fernandez has lost his last four games. Rask has only played once this year but shut out the Rangers in Boston. They lost their first and only match in Madison Square Garden this year, 3-2 in a shootout and have won once in New York in their last seven games there. If Fernandez is the goalie for Boston I would probably take the Rangers.
UPDATE: Fernandez is probable for the Bruins
Confidence: W4 streak or less (for Boston if Thomas/Rask in net, for NYR if Fernandez in net).

3) I like Koivuniemi and Scroggins here because they have scored significantly more in the previous rounds of the tournament than Barnes and Rhino. The format will be a three game, single elimination run-off. The lowest scoring player in each game will be eliminated. It should take approximately 1.5 hours for all three games and the matchup could potentially end after 1 hour with one side or the other being eliminated in the first two games.
Confidence: W2 streak or less (i.e. 75% confident)

8) Shaq has been on a scoring run recently, putting up big numbers. Tim Duncan averages more per game at home than Shaquille O’Neal does on the road. Tim Duncan has won this prop in their past three meetings 32-15, 25-23, and 20-13. I would take this matchup except for that Duncan seems to still be battling a minor knee injury which kept him sidelined for a week at the end of February.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

10) Singler and Henderson have been scoring more, recently, but Hansbrough and Green have been scoring more at home. Singler and Henderson outscored the Tarheels duo when they played at Duke earlier in the year. Hansbrough and Green have a 1.495 points per shot average compared to 1.325 for Henderson and Singler. I definitely have to go with the home duo who score more for each shot taken. Of course, there’s always the possibility one or the other side will be sidelined with fouls or by injury.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

14) Troy has beaten Southern Alabama twice this season, once at home and once away. Both schools need to win to have a chance at making the NCAA tournament. Troy won the first game in Alabama by 24 with an 18 point lead at half time. They won the second game at home by five. Both wins were mainly due to shooting a higher percentage across the board than Southern Alabama. Over the course of the season both schools shoot nearly the same average. South Alabama looks like they could be a good upset pick, but I think Troy’s defense is the reason South Alabama has shot poorly against Troy.
Confidence: W2 streak or less