Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Monday, July 20, 2009

July 21st, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Today was a sparse day for the picks and I went along with the suggestion going 1-0-0 with the Atlanta Braves. Tomorrow looks like things are picking up a bit and I'm sure by Thursday we'll have a dozen or more to choose from. After a 12-4-0 day yesterday it was nice to stay above .500 though not by much. So let's get on to the picks then.

Rookie Hanson Remains Unbeaten As Braves Beat Up On Giants Pen
Atlanta Braves 11 - 3 San Francisco Giants
Sanchez and Hanson took an inning or two to settle down but once they did it was 1-2-3 through both ends of the innings.
``Hanson struck out 11 to remain unbeaten, Chipper Jones hit a two-run homer, and the Atlanta Braves beat the San Francisco Giants 11-3 on Monday night in Jonathan Sanchez's first start since his no-hitter. Matt Diaz had a tiebreaking two-run triple in Atlanta's six-run seventh inning, helping the Braves snap a five-game skid against San Francisco. Sanchez struck out eight over six solid innings in his first game since his gem against San Diego on July 10. He gave up three runs and four hits. Sergio Romo (2-1) replaced Sanchez and failed to record an out, allowing four runs and four hits. Casey Kotchman had an RBI single after Diaz tripled, and pinch-hitter Ryan Church greeted Justin Miller with a two-run homer. Brian McCann added a run-scoring single."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

1) Nationality Of Tour de France Stage 16 Winner: French, Italian, or Spanish vs. Other - French, Italian, or Spanish
2) Spain U19 vs. Turkey U19 - Turkey U19 win or draw
3) Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics - Washington
4) San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves - San Francisco
5) Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
6) D.C. United @ Rochester Rhinos - D.C. United win by 2 goals or more
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros - Houston
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox - Tampa Bay
9) Houston Dynamo @ Seattle Sounders F.C. - Seattle Sounders F.C. advance
10) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - Minnesota
11) Result Of Manny Ramirez's Second At Bat: Hit, Walk, Or Strikeout vs. Any Other Result - Hit, walk, or strikeout
12) Inter Milan @ Chelsea - Chelsea win


Stage 16 elevation profile (inset: final 5km).
1) Looking at the elevaton profile for this stage one can see this stage is going to the king of the mountains. Clicking on `climber' next to the polka-dot jersey in the standings one can see that Franco Pellizotti is currently king of the mountains and that 14 of the top 15 cyclists in the mountain climbing points standings are Spanish, Italian, or French.
Tour de France - Stage 16 - Odds
A. SchleckLuxembourg16/1
10 other riders with worse than 20/1 and better
than 30/1 odds, 3 of 10 from Spain, Italy, or France

To the left is a list of the riders given better than 20/1 odds at SkyBet. Only four of those nine riders are from Spain, Italy, or France but all four are in the top 25 in the climber points standings. Only Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans from the other nations are in the top 25. Essentially the 'favorites' to perform well in a mountain stage are from Spain, Italy, and France but a strong showing by another rider like Andy Schleck could steal this particular stage win. Any other nation is a mild underdog in this case. Considering only the odds on these nine riders the odds are -120 for the winner being from France, Italy, or Spain and +120 for the other nations.

11) Manny Ramirez passed Mickey Mantle for 15th all-time in home runs last night with number 537 in his second at bat of the night. That's a good omen if you're betting on Manny to hit, strikeout, or walk in his second at bat in tonight's game. In his other three plate appearances Manny struck out once, hit a single, and flied out to right field. Over the course of the season Ramirez has managed to hit, walk, or strikeout in 61.5% of his plate appearances ([47H+33BB+27SO]/174PA). Tonight he'll more than likely be facing Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey by the time he gets up to bat for the second time. In five starts this season, spanning just 28 innings, Bailey has walked, struck out, or given up hits to 48.4% of his batters faced, so on his side of the equation this is more of a tossup.

Homer Bailey may look goofy on his delivery but it still may be enough to strike out Manny Ramirez.

Where I think we see that Bailey is better than 50% likely to give up a hit, strike out, or walk Manny is in his platoon splits. First off, whether facing right or left handed batters his BB/9 is at or above 6.0, a number most starters can't survive. When it comes to striking batters out he's also at 6.0, but the bulk of those strikeouts are coming against right handers with a K/9 of nearly 9.0. Clicking on batting average on balls in play (BABIP) shows he tends to give up more hits to right handers when they make contact with the ball as well. Ramirez is a right handed batters. For Manny his strikeout rate, walk rate, slugging percentage, and batting average are all greater against right handed pitchers such as Homer Bailey. Overall Manny is going to hit, walk, or strikeout more often than not and Bailey is going to give up a hit, walk, or strike out a right hander like Manny more often than not. Obviously with a one-play-prop like this anything can happen but the 'any other' result is less than likely.

1 comment:

  1. Hey! Check your email if you want to join that Fantasy Football league!

    Thanx for the Manny advise, btw.