July 20th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Suh-weet, 2-0-0 today with Boo Weekley and the women's softball team limiting their slaughter of Australia to 8 runs. Of course, the day I determine to keep from going pick-happy is the day I couldn't miss. Ya better believe I'll be hoping for just one tomorrow. And on to the picks.

Recaps

Tom Watson Misses Clincher And Bows Out To Cink In Playoff

Front 9 Scores: Boo Weekley 35, Angel Cabrera 36

Boo Weekley got his game under control and managed to avoid bogeying three out of the last four holes on the front 9 as he did in the third round. Angel Cabrera wasn't too bad himself, he just couldn't manage the one birdie that separated his score from Weekley's. Of course, with the and draw option Cabrera would have needed two birdies on a front 9 that was killing the field.

Tourney Wrap Up & NewsLeaderboardHighlightsPhotos

United States Advances To Championship Game With Eight Run Mercy Win

United States 8 - 0 Australia (in 5)

This one could have easily been even worse for the Aussies. I think it was the third inning the US had runners on second and third with one out so Australia opted to intentionally walk the bases loaded. Unfortunately the Australian pitcher hit the next batter to walk in a run and then threw four balls to walk in another. Australia went with an 18 year old rookie who then gave up a grand slam to make it 7-0. 10 runs or under looked bad when the same rookie pitcher found herself in the same situation, bases loaded with one out. This time, however, she induced an inning ending double play and from there it was smooth sailing!

``Ashley Hansen clubbed a grand slam and Jennie Finch threw a two-hit shutout as the U.S. advanced to the World Cup of Softball championship game with a 8-0 win against Australia on Sunday."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Halmstad BK @ Malmö FF - Halmstad BK win or draw
2) San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
3) Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies - Chicago
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
5) Will Australia Score Any Runs (USA vs. Australia): No, they are shutout vs. Yes, they score - No, shutout
6) Florida Marlins @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
7) Joey Votto vs. Manny Ramirez - Ramirez records more total bases

Previews

Proportion of games with 'N' total bases. Click image for timeline of total bases by game for each player since Manny's return and larger view of both graphs.

7) Joey Votto (.588 slugging in 216 at bats) and Manny Ramirez (.622 slugging in 135 at bats) would be two of the slugging leaders in the Majors if they had the minimum number of at bats required. Looking at the graph on the right one sees that Votto has had enough at bats to have developed a relatively normal looking total bases curve. It is a bit unusual for him to have more games with zero at bats than any other number, most players have a few more games with singles. Votto has a large number of games with 3 or more total bases, however, so that games when he does hit he tends to get more than one hit, including an extra base hit. Manny Ramirez's curve still looks rather jagged as he's only played in 40 games this season. Assuming his curve will tend to normalize he is going to have more games with at least one hit than not, but will have quite a few lone singles games (i.e. 1 total base). Overall this graph tells me Ramirez is more likely to get one total base and that Votto is more likely to get one or zero total bases.
Clicking on the graph one can see the total bases each player has gotten in each game played since Manny returned from suspension. One sees that both players have been very productive and have tended to alternate games with 4-plus total bases and games with 0 or 1 total base. Votto has had 4, 0, 0, and 2 total bases in his last four games while Ramirez has had 1, 0, 2, and 0 total bases. This graph here suggests both players are due for a home run, or a couple of doubles. I think Manny Ramirez is just a bit more due, however, especially playing at his home park.
Finally, I think the pitching matchup favors Manny Ramirez to get a big hit and rack up the total bases. Jason Schmidt is returning to the lineup for the Dodgers after sitting out most of the past two seasons with a shoulder injury. He's been pitching in AAA with the Albuquerque Isotopes for the past month and a half and has done semi-decent, racking up a 4.18 ERA in 32¹/₃ innings with a 1.30 WHIP. That's fairly comparable to Micah Owings' 4.94 ERA and 1.58 WHIP earned in the major leagues. Where I favor Schmidt to do a better job pitching is in terms of HR/9. Before Schmidt was injured he gave up quite a few home runs, but he was far more likely to concede one to a right handed batter, while Joey Votto bats left. That was in 2007, but he had given up 3 home runs in his AAA rehab stint so one might assume he's not pitching lobs to the plate. Micah Owings also gives up more home runs to right handers, which is the side of the plate Manny Ramirez bats from. The Dodgers' bullpen should be able to limit Votto far more than the Reds' bullpen can limit Ramirez as well.