Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

July 22nd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-0-0 today with the Tigers as I kept to my strict regimen of one pick a day, at least during the week. Overall it looks like my picks will be right around .500 for the day. The day started with two players sitting at 25 wins, the longest streaks we've seen in seven months of playing. One of them went down with a missed pick on Allsvenskan soccer of all things. The other is looking good to reach 26 wins as the Sounders just went up 2-1 in extra time of their U.S. Open Cup match. My bet is that 25 to 28 wins will be the range containing the top 7 streaks in December, but hey, maybe someone with a big streak will get ballsy and hit 35 or 40 with a big run on a stunt day. Until then, it's on with the picks.

Magglio Ordoñez Grand Slam Helps Detroit Defeat Feisty M's
Detroit Tigers 9 - 7 Seattle Mariners
Detroit and Porcello got me the win though it looks like it was a much harder fight than the 8-1 score after the 2nd inning suggested.
``Seattle's Jack Hannahan hit two of the seven home runs in the game. Miguel Cabrera, Placido Polanco also homered for Detroit. Wladimir Balentien and Ryan Langerhans connected for Seattle. Seattle starter Garrett Olson (3-4) allowed seven runs in 1 1/3 innings while [Tigers] rookie Rick Porcello (9-6) got the win despite allowing five runs on nine hits and a walk in five innings. The Mariners went up 1-0 in the first on Jose Lopez's RBI single, but the Tigers quickly took command with five in the bottom half and three in the second. Curtis Granderson led off with a single and scored on Polanco's double. Olson walked Cabrera and Marcus Thames to load the bases, and Ordonez gave the Tigers a 5-1 lead with his first grand slam in seven years."
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Picks(skip to notes)
1) Where Will Lance Armstrong Finish: 1st, 2nd, or 3rd vs. Any Other Place - Any other place
2) (Darts) Dennis Priestly vs. Denis Ovens - Priestly
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Milwaukee
4) Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies - Chicago
5) FC Lucerne @ FC Sion Sitten - FC Lucerne win or draw
6) Florida Marlins @ San Diego Padres - Florida
7) San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
8) New York Mets @ Washington Nationals - Washington
9) Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers - Seattle
10) Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers - Boston
11) Dustin Pedroia vs. Ian Kinsler - Pedroia records more total bases
12) Deportes Savio @ CD Motagua - CD Motagua win
13) How Many Runs Scored In Innings 4 through 7: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 3 or fewer


(top) Proportion of games this season recording 'N' total bases. (bottom) Total bases in last 20 games played.
Click image for larger version.
11) This prop pits second basemen Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox and Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers against one another to see who will record more total bases. Total bases are simply bases earned from a hit. So if a player grounds into fielders choice and the defense makes a play at second the batter reaching first does not get a hit and does not get a total base. If a player hits a double to deep center and stretches it into a triple they earn two total bases since the fielding is what allowed the third base to be reached.

Of the two players considered here Ian Kinsler is the better power hitter with a .491 slugging average compared to Pedroia's .422 slugging average. The bottom graph on the right shows each players' total bases in their last 20 individual games. Surprisingly (or not) the bulk of the middle of the graph shows Pedroia recording more total bases in most games while the most recent games and the games three weeks ago show the two recording identical numbers. Looking at the splits for each player one can see that Pedroia has a .595 slugging average over the past two weeks while Kinsler has slumped a bit with a .421 slugging average in that same time. Those numbers will normalize at some point with Pedroia hitting fewer doubles and Kinsler getting some more home runs, but I'm not sure it will be in this game.

The starting pitchers in the game are projected to be Clay Buchholz for the Red Sox and Vicente Padilla for the Rangers. Kinsler is 0-for-3 against Buchholz in his career while Pedroia is 0-for-2 against Padilla. I somewhat expect both batters to be shut down by the starters again today. Pedroia, Kinsler, Buchholz, and Padilla are all right handed when batting or pitching. In general right handed pitchers do well against right handed batters as they are releasing pitches at the inside of the plate. Clay Buchholz doesn't have much experience in the Majors but in his 19 starts plus 2 relief efforts he has shown a typical platoon split, with lefties slugging .443 off of him and rightys slugging .386. Over the past three years Vicente Padilla shows the same trend with lefties/rightys slugging .498/.372 off of him. One reason I favor Pedroia in a matchup with few total bases is that he hits right handers about as well as left handers while Kinsler excels against left handers but struggles against righties. Looking at the top graph to the right one can see that both players are getting zero hits in a high proportion of their games (30% is a lot for a star player). Pedroia is recording 1 to 3 total bases in 56% of his games while Kinsler is recording 1 to 3 total bases in 41% of his games. Kinsler has many more games than Pedroia with 4 or more total bases so normally I'd favor the slugger, but with these pitchers I like the more consistent hitter, Pedroia.

12) CD Motagua is one of the staples of Honduran soccer having won the league championship 6 times since 1997. Last season was not their most successful but they did defeat Deportes Savio on the road last season 2-0. It's the very beginning of the Apertura portion of the season and I haven't looked to see what changes each team has made to their side. Motagua is favored to win the game but not by much and generally I'd stay away from these season opening sorties unless it's a league you're very familiar with.

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