Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

click it

Thursday, March 5, 2009

March 5th, 2009 Picks

Well another 50%+ day, but another 3-0 day ruined, this time by a Marcus Camby migraine. I know Rudy Gay had a great chance of winning either way, but it would have been nice to see it play out. I also knew Boston College wouldn’t out rebound N.C. State again. I should’ve changed my pick here in my blog when I saw N.C. State had higher shooting percentages on the season. It’s too bad McNeal couldn’t make his last open three for the win and had his shot blocked for the push. Other than that things went well. I took Sampdoria, which was a great game to watch. Their goalie, Castellazzi, was amazing. Then it was the Sabres, and finally Marcus Camby. I was on the monthly wins leaderboard briefly yesterday and hopefully can get back up there today. So on to the picks.

1) Ernie Els vs. Camilo Villegas – Villegas cards a lower first round score
2) Robert Allenby vs. Boo Weekley – Allenby cards a lower first round score
3) York City @ Weymouth – 2 goals or fewer
4) Calgary Flames @ Philadelphia Flyers – Calgary
5) Tennessee @ South Carolina – South Carolina
6) Providence @ Villanova – Providence score more three pointers
7) Dirk Nowitzki pts. and reb. vs. Chris Paul pts. and ast. – Paul pts. and ast.
8) Illinois @ Penn State – Illinois
9) Chris Wright vs. Derrick Brown – Wright pts.
10) California @ Arizona – 147 points or less

Good luck tomorrow everybody, I’ll try and add some analysis before too late. I’ll be taking Villegas in the morning then under in soccer, then probably Paul over Nowitzki and then under in PAC-10 action. Well scratch the soccer pick, and I think I may take Calgary instead of Paul, but I want to see if new acquisition Jokinen will be playing for them.

3) Well, I spent a lot of time looking at these teams’ past results to determine the most likely number of goals to be scored was 2. Then I dug deeper and discovered the reason Weymouth lost 9 to 0 to Rushden & Diamond was because they were playing their Under-18 squad. They had to play the teenagers because they hadn’t paid their senior players for a couple of months and the vast majority of them quit the team. Weymouth has found a potential financial backer now and have some new senior players, but these guys have only played one game together, the 2 to 0 loss to York City on February 28th. So be careful picking this one, the Weymouth team out there will be entirely different from the one who played before 2/21/09, but at least they are (mostly) senior players.
UPDATE: This match has been postponed due to the field at Wessex being waterlogged from melting snow.
Confidence: Does it matter?

5) South Carolina and Tennessee are tied for second place in the SEC. South Carolina is 7-0 at home in conference play and Tennessee is 4-3 on the road. In their previous matchup Tennessee won by 3 even though they had 22 turnovers to 11 for South Carolina. Tennessee had one of their best shooting games of the season that night. South Carolina has forced more turnovers than they’ve given up in all 7 home games they’ve won. Tennessee will probably out rebound them and has a better inside scoring presence. They will have to have another fantastic shooting night to defeat the Gamecocks tonight as South Carolina will have the advantage in turnovers again. South Carolina should also expect to shoot better on threes having shot 40 or better their past three home games. Tennessee will have to shoot over 70% on free throws which they’ve done in only 2 of their 7 road games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

6) Providence appears to have the same advantages over Villanova that Texas Tech had over Kansas. They shoot more threes (21.4 to 17.8), and make a bit more too (6.897 to 6.433). Tech shoots a lower percentage than Kansas, and Providence shoots a lower percentage than ‘Nova (32.2% to 36.2%). Providence should be playing from behind, which I don’t like since that usually means taking more bad shots, rather than getting three pointers from the offense. I think this will be a lot closer than yesterday’s prop, but with the stats favoring Providence I’ve got to go with them.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

7) It’s basically a tossup when one averages together recent performance overall, at home/away, and season totals, with Dirk averaging 31.5 points and rebounds and Paul averaging 31.0 points and assists. Nowitzki is playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. The last time these teams met Dallas was on the second night of a back-to-back in Dallas and Paul won 44 to 33.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

9) Derrick Brown averages 1.5 points per shot attempted compared to 1.35 points per shot attempted for Chris Wright. Brown is also at home. Chris Wright is averaging 3.4 more points in their last 5 games, 0.2 more points in his last 5 away games compared to Brown’s last 5 home games, and 0.5 fewer points overall. It’s really not leaning one way or the other for either player. Usually I’ll go with the one with the higher point per shot statistic, but here I’ll go with Wright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

10) These two teams combined for 124 points in their last meeting, which is quite a bit under 148. Even with points added to their projected total based on assists and turnovers the total score I estimate is under. At most they’ll score 146. Unless of course it goes to triple overtime, then the over looks pretty good. I think I’ll take that chance.
Confidence: W12 streak or less

No comments:

Post a Comment