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Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Wednesday, March 4, 2009

March 4th, 2009 Picks

Continued my run of over 50% picks correct in March, it must be getting close to St. Patrick’s Day. Went 2-1 overall and have 8 wins on the month so far, but I figure one needs at least 3 wins per day on average to be in the running for the monthly prize. That Michigan State game was brutal to me, they started out scoring at ease. I go to dinner and come back in the middle of Michigan State shooting bricks and just in time to watch both teams combine for one point over at least three minutes. The lesson today: I am not very good at picking college basketball, at least not today. So on to the picks.

1) Inter Milan @ Sampdoria – Sampdoria wins
2) Manchester United @ Newcastle – 3 goals or more
3) Boston College @ North Carolina State – Boston College
4) North Carolina @ Virginia Tech – 156 points or more
5) Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
6) Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat – Miami
7) McNeal and Matthews vs. Young and Blair – McNeal and Matthews pts.
8) San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks – San Antonio
9) Oklahoma @ Missouri – Missouri
10) Florida @ Mississippi State – Mississippi State
11) Kansas @ Texas Tech – Kansas has more three pointers
12) Rudy Gay pts. + ast. vs. Marcus Camby pts. + reb. – Camby pts. + reb.

The picks are finalized and I’m looking forward to the day’s matchups. Let me know if you have a question about one of the matchups without analysis. Good luck!

1) This is frighteningly similar to the Juventus @ Lazio match yesterday. Both teams are missing a defender, a goalie, and a striker from their squads that played to a 1 – 1 draw at the beginning of the season. Fortunately for Sampdoria their goalie in that match, Mirante, has been replaced by Castellazzi for most of the season and that is who they’ll have in net for today’s match. Inter Milan will be leaving Julio César back home and their backup goalie, Toldo, has only played in two matches this season. Inter Milan will also be missing striker Ibrahimovic, midfielder Figo, and defenders Samuel and Chivu. Aside from defender Lucchini Sampdoria will return the side which beat AC Milan 2 – 1 on Sunday. It should be a wet and rainy day in Genoa so expect the unexpected with a few more goals than usual.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

2) Newcastle United are a wholly different squad than the one which pulled a 1 – 1 draw against Manchester United in the first game of the season. Only 4 of the players starting in that game are available to play in this game. Looking at recent goals scored/allowed, season-long goals scored/allowed, and performance against the top-flight/bottom-rung teams I got that the teams would combine for – get this – 2.503 goals. Well, it’s closer to 3 than it is to 2 so I’ll go with the over here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) On paper these two teams match up fairly well. North Carolina State is a 2 to 3 point favorite by virtue of their being at home. In their game at Boston College the Eagles out rebounded the Wolf Pack 40 to 24, and had 19 offensive rebounds. Other than that the teams were nearly equal in every statistical category. Boston College won with a few more threes and a couple more free throws. Boston College will have to dominate the boards again to win this one, unless the Wolf Pack have a poor shooting night. If Boston College shoots poorly, however, they’re doomed.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) McNeal and Matthews are averaging 0.6 less than Blair and Young in their past 5 games. Recently at home, however, Blair and Young have been below their season average. McNeal and Matthews’ points per shot average is 1.50 while Blair and Young’s points per shot average is 1.37. Blair and Young generally play fewer minutes than McNeal and Matthews and are more prone to getting into foul trouble.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

9) Defensively, Missouri will have no answer for Blake Griffin, with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons doing their best to stop the powerhouse. Missouri has also yet to lose at home this season, and it will be the final home game for Carroll and Lyons who are seniors. Missouri is a four point home favorite in this game, which is kind of surprising to me. It will be a hard fought game and Missouri should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Some people might think that since Texas is playing from behind they’ll be shooting a lot of threes and have more chances at making them. It’s true they’ll be forcing a lot of threes, and missing a lot, trying to come back. Kansas will have gotten their lead partly by getting good looks at threes, however. I think Texas Tech shoots below their average and Kansas hits theirs. Texas Tech shoots 37.1% on the season, Kansas shoots 39.0%. Texas Tech makes 7.07 threes and shoots 19.07 per game, Kansas makes 6.52 and shoots 16.72 on average. Kansas and Texas Tech each have three players averaging over 1.0 three point make per game, but Kansas also has another player hitting nearly 1.0.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

12) Camby averages more points and rebounds than Gay averages points and assists. In their past five games Camby is averaging more than Gay, and Camby averages more in his recent home games than Gay in his recent away games. Rudy Gay really doesn’t get many assists, that 6 against the Lakers last night are the most he’s had all season. He turns the ball over more than he gets assists. I also like that Camby can get rebounds on the offensive and defensive ends of the court, while Gay can only get assists on offense. Whether or not Randolph plays Camby will get his. Gay has won this prop in their previous two matchups which is why the confidence isn’t higher on this.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

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