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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Friday, March 6, 2009

March 6th, 2009 Picks

Ahhh, my first sub-.500 day of the month as far as my picks go, and the first day I’ve avoided picking any losers! I only got 2 picks in today as the NBA game got off to a late start. I learned my lesson about picking against the player with the higher point per shot total, Derrick Brown and Chris Wright each took 9 shots, Brown had more points from those shots, just as one might expect. Over/under was off by quite a bit, I think if Arizona misses their threes down the stretch, they don’t foul, and under may have won out. I also appeared on the monthly leaderboard for a moment after the Paul victory but fell off again after Penn State won. Just one strong day and I should be ensconced! So on to the picks.

1) Miguel Jiminez vs. Justin Rose – Jiminez cards a lower front 9 score
2) Charlie Wi vs. J.J. Henry – Wi cards a lower front 9 score
3) Willem II Tilburg @ Sparta Rotterdam – Sparta Rotterdam wins
4) Southern Illinois @ Bradley – Southern Illinois
5) William & Mary @ James Madison – James Madison
6) Calgary Flames @ Carolina Hurricanes – Calgary
7) Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
8) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics – Cleveland
9) Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
10) Chauncy Billups vs. Mehmet Okur – Okur scores more points

*yawn* Well, as far as Jiminez and Wi go they shot well on the front 9 yesterday and did well overall. The golf matches should end after 2.5 hours, assuming they unlock after the front 9 are finished. So I’ll go Jiminez, Wi, Sparta, and then probably Calgary or Toronto, followed by Anaheim or Okur. Good luck!

3) In the first game these two teams played this season Willem won 3 – 2 over Sparta. Sparta Rotterdam had many more injuries than Willem, while in this match it is Willem who has been bit by the injury bug. According to the match preview Willem will be missing Boutahar, with Demouge possible. According to the Willem II Tilburg homepage Akgun, Schenkel, Deul, Mathijssen, and Quasten are also injured, and van Eijden and Demouge are in doubt. That makes 3 of their top 5 goal scorers out for this match, and if Demouge also misses the game it would be 4 out of 5. Demouge is huge for them as he has scored 46.4% of their goals this season. Willem II Tilburg has lost their last 6 matches. Wapenaar will be out for Sparta Rotterdam and he is their starting goalie. Their backup, Cassio, has done well for them with two clean sheets in six games, and 8 goals allowed overall. I think Sparta Rotterdam will win this 2 – 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

5) It’s tough to make a pick on two teams one knows as little about as these two. One thing I do know is that James Madison has already beaten William & Mary twice this season, once at home and once on the road, and both by 9 points. This one will be on a neutral court, and while Harrisburg is over twice as close to Richmond as Williamsburg they will have equal numbers of tickets reserved for either school. Both of the games were close and Williams & Mary had the early lead both times, so this won’t be an automatic victory for James Madison.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Calgary is really pushing their luck going for their seventh road victory in a row. It’s a back-to-back situation for them here as well, and Carolina is a good team. Calgary’s road record is 17-11-2 and Carolina’s home record is 17-13-1. With the addition of Jokinen and Leopold and with Kiprusoff in the net it’s hard to pick against them.
UPDATE: Kiprusoff is being replaced by McIlhenny in net tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) Miami has lost their last six meetings to Toronto. This will be their first meeting since the trade that sent Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon to Miami in exchange for Shawn Marion. I expect O’Neal and Moon to have above average games against their former team, but I also expect the same from Marion. Dwyane Wade tends to save his best games for the best competition, which Toronto is not. If Wade scores over 40 points there is a good chance it’s because O’Neal, Moon, Haslem and other members of the Heat are not having good games. If Bosh and Calderon have good games along with Marion it would negate a terrific game by Wade, or a good game by all the Heat.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

8) The Celtics defeated Cleveland at home in the first game of the season. It was Mo Williams’ first regular season game with the team he’d just been traded to in the offseason. It was a close game, with Boston holding a four point lead going into the fourth quarter. At Cleveland, later in the season, the Cavaliers were missing Zydrunas Ilgauskas. They won another close game, but had a 12 point lead going into the fourth quarter. This game is in Boston, but now Mo Williams has truly integrated himself into the Cavaliers as their point man, Ilgauskas is back and playing well, and Kevin Garnett is missing for the Celtics.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

10) Superficially Bilups should win this easily. He’s averaged 25.2 points in his last five games, and 25.8 points in his last 5 road games. Okur has only averaged 19.2 in his last 5, and 18.4 in his last 5 at home. The kicker for me is that Billups is averaging 14.9 points on the second night of a back-to-back this season and 12.0 in the last 5 of those. The only real problem here is that the Jazz have so many other offensive weapons that can step up and score 15 or more, C.J. Miles, Harpring, Korver, Brewer, Millsap, Boozer, Williams, even Kirilenko. So in the end I’ll take Okur. Utah Jazz forver!
Confidence: W8 streak or less

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