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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Tuesday, March 3, 2009

March 3rd, 2009 Picks

Overall a good day, going 3-2-1 with my picks. New Orleans proved to have too much firepower for Philly with Posey and West having big games. The Sixers played poorly with the exception of Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala. New Orleans improves to 3-7 on the road in the second half of a back-to-back. I also failed to consider what would happen if Notre Dame had trouble holding onto the ball. They led, and probably still lead, the nation in terms of fewest numbers of turnovers per game. I also didn’t expect them to shoot 50% from the line, but that’s what happens when it’s your worst free throw shooters drawing fouls. Once they fell behind by 5 it was over. At least Braga, the Islanders, and Texas delivered. So on to today’s picks.

1) Chelsea (@Portsmouth) vs. Arsenal (@West Bromwich Albion) – Arsenal scores more goals
2) Juventus @ Lazio – Lazio wins
3) Florida Panthers @ Atlanta Thrashers – Florida
4) Michigan State @ Indiana – 130 points or more
5) Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
6) Oklahoma State vs. Georgetown – Georgetown has a greater winning margin
7) Wake Forest @ Maryland – Maryland
8) Auburn @ Alabama – Alabama
9) Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings – Indiana
10) Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks – 5 goals or fewer

1) Chelsea did score 4 goals on Portsmouth in the first game of the season, and Arsenal scored only 1 goal on West Bromwich Albion. It’s fairly common for those scores to change in the second meeting of the Barclay’s Premier League campaign.
Against the bottom 6 teams in terms of goals allowed Chelsea has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 9 matches and Arsenal has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 7 matches. West Bromwich has averaged 2.75 goals allowed in 8 matches against the top 5 goal scoring teams, and Portsmouth has averaged 1.571 goals allowed in 7 matches. Averaging with goals scored/allowed in the past five games, the past five games at home/away, total goals scored/allowed, total goals scored/allowed at home/away, I came up with Arsenal scoring 1.763 goals and Chelsea scoring 1.603 goals. Basically two goals for each is most likely with Arsenal slightly more likely to score 2. So I pick Arsenal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

2) Juventus played at Lazio earlier in the season and it was a 1-1 draw. This time around the game is at home for Lazio again, and both sides have roughly the same squads taking the field. The few injuries each have suffered are adequately made up for by their capable reserves. Lazio has more to play for in this game as the Coppa Italia title would grant them a berth in the UEFA Cup next year. That desire plays big in football and should be enough to power them to a win. Again, however, I would not be surprised if this were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

3) This reminds me of a recent matchup, Carolina at Atlanta. In that game Carolina had a 3 to 1 lead in the third period and gave up four straight goals to lose 5 – 3. Florida is a better team and have better goalies in the net, whether it’s Vokoun or Anderson. They should be able to avoid such a meltdown. Florida is 15-15-3 on the road and Atlanta is 11-17-2 at home.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

4) Just the stats here. Combined Romo average points allowed: 130.2, combined Romo average points scored: 127.3. Adjusted Romo average points allowed: 147.1. The adjusted points allowed takes turnovers and assists into account and has been tuned based on past over/under results. These two teams scored 122 points in their last meeting, but Michigan State was missing Raymar Morgan. In conference Michigan State scores more on the road than at home and Indiana scores more at home than on the road.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

6) Kansas State is a pretty good team. Oklahoma State has beaten Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M at home by an average of 7 points. Kansas State has defeated Texasm A&M and Texas on the road by an average of 4.5 points. Kansas State should play a competitive game against the Cowboys. Georgetown had a bad stretch losing to Seton Hall and Cincinnati on the road, but they’ve also beaten UCONN and Villanova on the road. I see them blowing out St. John’s.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

8) One should almost always go with the home team in the in-state rivalry game, especially when it’s senior night for the home team.
Confidence: W14 streak or less

10) San Jose and Dallas have gone under in three of their four previous meetings this season. Dallas has gone under in 67% of their last 15 games. San Jose has gone under in 53% of their last 15 games. Nabokov might be coming back in net for San Jose, but Boucher is capable as well as both have over 90% save percentages.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

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