July 15th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)A decent 5-2-0 day for my actual Streak picks though it seemed like I did a lot worse. Started off with a loss at the hands of Young Boys then got back on track quickly with the Sparks and Sun scoring in flurries at the ends of the first and second quarters. Obama got me back to W2. The camera angle made it difficult to see where the pitch went but it looked good on the delivery. Apparently Pujols had to move up a bit and scoop it up before it hit the ground. Tim Lincecum was shaky for the NL to start and the fielding on display was poor for regular players, let alone all-stars. Got three wins in a row to finish though with zero runs in the third, the AL scoring more in the fifth, and the final out being a pop out or ground out. And so on to the picks.

Recaps

Young Boys' Doumbia Collects All Three Points From The Spot

BSC Young Boys 3 - 2 FC Zürich

FC Zürich started out strong but soon Young Boys were in control of the match as they scored two early on in the first half. FC Zürich fought back to tie the game 2-2 but a penalty on Zürich keeper Andrea Guatelli gave Young Boys a penalty kick and with the quality of strikers on their side it was as much as a guaranteed goal.

``Zürich startete stark in die Partie und erarbeitete sich schon in den ersten Minuten mehrere gute Möglichkeiten. Entgegen dem Spielverlauf waren es jedoch die Berner, die für die ersten Tore besorgt waren. Hätten die Young Boys Doumbia noch mehr in ihr Spiel integriert, der FCZ hätte noch mehr Schwierigkeiten bekommen. Aber als der FCZ nach dem 0:2-Rückstand mit dem 2:2 ins Spiel zurückgefunden hatte, foulte der Torhüter Guatelli den durchgebrochenen Degen (75.). Doumbia verwertete den Penalty zum 3:2-Siegtreffer für die Berner."

Read more....FC Zürich Point Of View & PhotosYoung Boys Point Of View & LineupsEvents

American League Win 13^th Straight All-Star Game

American League 4 - 3 National League (Obama's pitch to Pujols' glove; First to score: AL, 2 runs top 1^st)
3^rd Inning: 0 runs scored; 5^th Inning: AL 1 - 0 NL; Final out: M. Tejada pops out

Tim Lincecum started for the National League and got off to a rocky start. Ichiro Suzuki led off with a chopped infield single and Derek Jeter followed by getting on base after Lincecum struck his left hand with the ball. Jeter was OK but the National League was not. Joe Mauer hit the ball directly into the dirt in front of Yadier Molina who hesitated a second, unsure if the ball was fair or foul, before making a fine toss to David Wright at third base for the out. Wright tried to convert the double play but tossed it wide to Albert Pujols who made the catch but had to take his foot of the base. Mark Teixeira hit a grounder on the next play but Pujols was screened by Mauer, failed to see the ball, and kicked it to commit the error allowing Derek Jeter to score. In the third inning Rich Franklin and Mark Buehrle did not allow a single baserunner. Then in the fifth inning it was Chad Billingsley's turn for the NL. He allowed Crawford to get on base before forcing Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter to ground into fielder's choice, but with two outs he gave up an RBI double to Joe Mauer. Edwin Jackson pitched the bottom of the fifth for the AL and he did better getting Molina, Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez to hit out in a row. The final out of the game was a Miguel Tejada pop fly to second base as he faced off against Mariano Rivera and with that the American League took the win and home field in the World Series."

``Crawford pulled back a home run with a leaping grab an inning before Curtis Granderson tripled and scored the tiebreaking run in the eighth, giving the AL a 4-3 victory Tuesday night at the new Busch Stadium."

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Argentina vs. England - Argentina
2) How Many Cyclists Will Finish Ahead Of Mark Cavendish: Cavendish In Top 3 vs. 3 Or More - Cavendish top 3
3) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Washington Mystics - Washington
4) Stabæk IF @ KF Tirana - Stabæk IF win
5) Jodie Meeks vs. Joe Alexander - Meeks pts.
6) How Many Points Will DeMar DeRozan Score: 15 or fewer vs. 16 or more - 15 or fewer
7) Estudiantes de la Plata @ Cruzeiro MG - 3 goals or more
8) Jerryd Bayless vs. Joey Dorsey - Dorsey pts. + reb.
9) Detroit Shock @ Seattle Storm: Storm win by 10 or more vs. Shock lose by 9 or less or win - Storm win by 10+
10) International League vs. Pacific Coast League - International League

Previews

Five time Champions Trophy medalists Argentina are huge favorites to defeat England today.

1) To start with I know absolutely nothing about field hockey and especially women's field hockey. The closest I've come to seeing a field hockey game is that scene in `Clerks' where they play on the roof. The one thing I do know after searching around for information on this match is that women's field hockey players are actually pretty attractive. The other thing I found out was that Argentina should win this match.

Looking at the standings one sees Argentina is 2-0-0 while England is 0-1-1. OK, so maybe the English team has just played the harder competition at this early stage. Argentina won the Gold at this competition last year, however, and are favorites to repeat or at least finish in the top three. England has never won a medal at the Champions Trophy competition and are not expected to this year either. English betting site BetFair has odds on the match favoring Argentina immensely. Converting to moneyline odds Argentina is a -320 favorite while England is a +620 underdog with the draw being given +410 odds. Aside from Argentina's overall superiority they will be playing a young English squad as England tries out players in preparation for the World Cup. Said English assistant coach Karen Brown, ``This tournament we’re using it for development, we’ve brought a pretty young squad." The match preview gives a host of statistical tidbits such as the fact that England has not scored against Argentina in a competitive match since 1998 when they scored twice in a 4-2 loss. It would be a big upset for England to win and the worst case scenario it would seem for Argentina would be to come away with a draw, which would at least preserve your streak.

Perennial Albanian Champions League entrants host Stabæk IF in the second qualifying round today.

4) The 2008 Norwegian Tippeligæn champions Stabæk IF have arrived and trained in Tiranë in preparation for their match against KF Tirana today. They finished first in the league last season after a one year spell in the second division during the 2004/2005 season. They rose to the top of the Tippeligæn behind the strength of foreign internationals Alanzinho, Veigar Páll Gunnarsson, Somen Tchoyi and Daniel Nannskog. Unfortunately some hard decisions faced the club and the choice was made to upgrade Telenor Stadium leaving them short of funds to hold on to their stars. Of the four mentioned prior only Daniel Nannskog remains with the team and as a result Stabæk now find themselves in 5^th place two-thirds through the season. Interestingly, the fourth and last remaining star of the 2008 championship team, Daniel Nannskog, is slated to start today's match on the bench. Rising star Frederik Berglund, who has scored 6 goals in Stabæk's two most recent matches, will start in his place at the tip of a 4-1-4-1 formation.

KF Tirana, as reigning champions of the Kategoria Superiore (Albania's top-flight soccer league), and winners of the league 24 times over, will be making yet another foray into the Champions League. They have never progressed into the group stage of the competition and have yet to make it past the second qualifying round since UEFA implemented the current format in 1992. Although they are currently in the off-season of their domestic league KF Tirana are still beset with a few injury concerns, while Stabæk IF are bringing a fully healthy and full strength squad. Toni Pezo (M), Ansi Agolli (M), and Migen Memelli (F) will all miss the match for Tirana. Laurent Mohellebi (M), Igor Gal (D) and Arber Abilaliaj (F) have been called up to fill in the roles vacated by Pezo, Agolli, and Memelli which are some fairly big shoes to fill according to Tirana trainer Alban Tafaj.

There was one English-language preview I was able to find that seemed to favor even a weaker Stabæk side given their fine recent form in domestic play and the fact they have a few months of competitive play under their belts while KF Tirana have only been able to fit in a few friendlies in that time. This is Stabæk IF's first Champions League entry and the players will be nervous with rumors swirling of Albanian crowds throwing rocks and even knives at visiting foreign teams. KF Tirana, on the other hand, have plenty of Champions League experience though they have found victory or even draws few and far between. They lost both legs of their ties the past two years they have participated, against NK Domzale (Slovenia) in '07 and against CSKA Sofia (Bulgaria) in '05. In terms of how competitive the Norwegian and Albanian leagues are in relation to one another Norway has the better talent. The Tippeligæn is ranked 18^th amongst UEFA nations while the Kategoria Superiore is ranked 43^rd. The club coefficients for each team are given by UEFA which take into account their past success in UEFA competitions (66%) and their domestic league's rating (33%). KF Tirana has a coefficient of 0.799 while Stabæk IF has a coefficient of 3.760 which reflects Norway's overall success in Europe more than Stabæk's. It will be interesting to see how Stabæk's players deal with playing an intimidating foreign environment but overall I think they will have the talent to come away with a victory today and in the return leg in Norway.

Jodie Meeks has got the shooting edge (.600 FG%) but Joe Alexander has a bigger inside game (23 FTA).

5) The Milwaukee Bucks have to be happy to have a couple of incredible athletes like Joe Alexander and Jodie Meeks playing for them in the NBA Summer League this year. Joe Alexander was a candidate for the slam dunk competition last season while Jodie Meeks was the driving force behind the Kentucky Wildcats' limited success. So far they have each played in 3 games for Milwaukee averaging around 30 minutes per game each. The Bucks are 3-0 with their help and look to continue that success against the Chicago Bulls tonight.

In those three games Meeks is averaging slightly more in the points department with 14, 16, and 20 points for an average of 16.7 while Joe Alexander has scored 14, 8, and 24 for an average of 15.3 points. The main difference between these two is in how those points have been scored. Meeks is shooting 21/35 from the field (60%) including 3/5 from three point range but has only made 5/6 free throws. Joe Alexander is shooting 13/36 from the field (33%) including 1/1 from three point range but has taken 23 free throws, making 19 of them. Joe Alexander is more active down low and has been able to get to the free throw line often but is barely half the shooter that Jodie Meeks is. In terms of points per shot (PTS/FGA) Meeks is at 1.43 and Alexander is at 1.21. I favor Meeks here as he has not had to rely on being fouled and making free throws to score his points and has been much more efficient with his shots overall.

DeMar DeRozan averaged 13.9 points in 33.4 minutes per game in one season with USC.

6) The fans in Toronto are trying to get as excited as they possibly can about the arrival of DeMar DeRozan. Toronto desperately needs to meet with success, both in the regular season and the playoffs, if they want to keep the franchise in the city. Essentially they need every new addition to the club to exceed all expectations which can be difficult when hopes are so high. DeRozan is a young player who will turn 21 years old early next month and completed one season at USC. While at USC he averaged 13.9 points per game in 33.4 minutes. His FG% was over .500 and he managed 1.32 points per shot. So far in the summer league he has played in three games and is averaging near 34 minutes per game, but his FG% is only .435 while his points per shot have been a truly sub par 0.98 meaning he's taking a field goal for every point scored. Part of the reason for that is he's not been getting to the line too often and has settled for jump shots against the tougher defensive competition he's faced. In the three games he's played he's scored 10 points on 12 shots, 20 points on 20 shots, and 15 points on 14 shots, not exactly a model of efficiency. If he can start taking better shots and making a higher percentage he would be a lethal scoring threat, but as it stands he's just one of four players averaging double figures for Toronto. As long as he works to get layups and lays off the jumpers he should score 16 or more, but he's young and I don't think he'll have the patience for it just yet.

Cruzeiro look to retain the Copa Libertadores against challengers Estudiantes de la Plata after a 0-0 draw in La Plata.

7) Brazilian side Cruzeiro will host Argentine squad Estudiantes de la Plata for the second and deciding leg of the Copa Libertadores final this evening. Cruzeiro are the defending champions and being as this is the most prestigious competition in South America both teams will be running on all cylinders to win this, and extremely wary of losing. Evidence for this can be found in the first leg at La Plata where the two teams played to a 0-0 draw. This after the two clashed in the Group Stage with Cruzeiro winning 3-0 in Belo Horizonte and Estudiantes winning 4-0 in La Plata. Both teams average between 2.1 and 2.6 goals scored plus allowed for Estudiantes and Cruzeiro in their respective domestic leagues. Given the low scoring nature of soccer in general and that fewer than half of the matches for either team involve 3 or more goals being scored in domestic or Cup competitions 2 or fewer is the smarter pick. I think the only way this goes over is if either side makes a costly mistake, such as an own goal. If the match is tied 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time they will enter into two 15 minute halves of extra time which would give either side more chances to score a third goal. I do not believe the match will remain scoreless through the 90 minutes of regulation. It's crunch time and the first to score will probably win.

The Detroit Shock are 1-4 on the road with all four defeats coming by at least 10 points.

9) The line on this game has the Seattle Storm being given 9.5 points at -110 and the Detroit Shock being given -110 odds of covering 9.5 points. So it's a 50/50 proposition whether Detroit will win by double digits according to these oddsmakers. I see this more as a prop regarding whether the Seattle Storm will win, however, as the Detroit Shock have yet to lose on the road by single digits. Even at home half of Detroit's losses have come by 10 or more. The odds of Seattle winning outright are much more favorable as they are -550 favorites while the Shock are +425 underdogs. Detroit has been beaten by 20, 12, 10, and 16 points on the road and I think 10 is a fairly conservative estimate for Seattle to win today. That's not to say there are not close WNBA games, but blowouts are just as common.

July 14th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Terrible, terrible 0-3-0 day today. Woke up to Denis Istomin having been taken down in straight sets, then took Trelleborgs FF who lost 0-1. The bulk of the picks were in the evening and I ended up taking Pujols or Howard to win the home run derby. Bad choice, though both of them did well in the second round they just had too big of a mountain to climb with Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder hitting 11 apiece in the first round. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Crivoi Advances After Making The Most Of 14 Break Points

V. Crivoi def. D. Istomin 6-0 6-4

Denis Istomin was a bit off in the first set as Victor Crivoi broke his serve three times to take the set in a sweep, 6-0. Istomin was a bit better in the second set but was still unable to win 60% or better of his first serve points, which is pretty bad even for a mediocre player like Istomin. You can check out the stats yourself by clicking on `match stats' and then clicking on `Today's Results' and going back to 7-13-09 there. Crivoi double faulted five times to once for Istomin but it wasn't much to put him in danger as he was winning 69% of his first serves and 50% of his second serves. This was another tennis match where the money line favorite ended up winning the match.

Match Stats

Depleted Trelleborgs Sunk At Home By Örebro SK

Örebro SK 1 - 0 Trelleborgs FF

Trelleborgs FF had not lost at home since July 20^th of last year, but all good things must come to an end. They were missing a number of players from their core Starting XI and Trelleborgs long run of futility against Örebro continued.

``Dock var det Örebro som fick matchens första riktigt heta målchans men Viktor Noring stod bra placerad och kunde parera långskottet. TFF vaskade fram några halvchanser innan ett till synes helt ofarligt örebroanfall blev betydligt giftigare genom en olycklig passning från trotjänaren Mattias Thylander. Roni Porokara tackade och tog emot och med en tungt skott längs marken pricksköt finnen in de svartvitas ledningsmål"

Read more....Box Score

Prince Fielder Crowned 2009 Home Run Derby Champion

Final Round: P. Fielder 6, N. Cruz 5

Prince Fielder certainly deserved to win this one. Of all the participants he, along with Nelson Cruz, were the only ones who seemed to consistently be able to jam the ball way out to the 450' mark and beyond. Cruz had a bit of a let down starting in the second round, but Fielder seemed to be able to get behind just about every hit he had.

``This year's All-Star festivities were supposed to belong to Pujols in his home ballpark. But Fielder snatched the spotlight in the annual warmup for Tuesday night's Midsummer Classic. With three outs remaining in the final round, Fielder smacked a drive onto the grassy hill in center field to clinch the crown. He posed for a moment with his bat held high, then embraced Brewers teammate Ryan Braun near home plate. Pujols, who leads the majors with 32 homers, needed a late rally just to avoid elimination in the first round. With one out to work with, he connected on consecutive swings to force a three-player swing-off for the final spot in round 2, sending the red-clad crowd of 45,981 into a high-fiving frenzy. Looking tired, he managed six homers next time up for a two-round total of 11, easily surpassed by Fielder, Cruz and Howard, the 2006 derby champ. `I wish I would have put a better show for our fans,' Pujols said. `I was nervous a little bit.'"

Read more....ResultsPhotos

Picks
1) Who Will Win Stage 10 Of The Tour de France: Mark Cavendish vs. Any Other Cyclist - Any other cyclist
2) Nuria Llagostera Vives vs. Masa Zec Peskiric - Peskiric
3) Alla Kudryavtseva vs. Nicole Vaidisova - Vaidisova
4) BSC Young Boys @ FC Zürich - FC Zürich win
5) Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun - Connecticut
6) How Many Points Will Be Scored In The First Half: 69 or fewer vs. 70 or more - 70 or more
7) Where Will President Obama's First Pitch Land First: The Ground vs. Albert Pujols' Glove - Pujols' glove
8) Which Team Will Score The First Run: American League All-Stars vs. National League All-Stars - NL All-Stars
9) American League All-Stars vs. National League All-Stars - AL All-Stars
10) How Many Runs Will Be Scored In The Third Inning: 0 runs vs. 1 or more runs - 0 runs
11) Which Team Will Score More Runs In The 5^th Inning: American League vs. National League - AL All-Stars more runs or tie
12) Jonathon Papelbon vs. Mariano Rivera - Rivera allows fewer hits
13) What Will Be The Final Out Of The Game: Strikeout vs. Ground Out or Fly Out - Ground out or fly out

Previews

Defending league champions FC Zürich take on runners up Young Boys Bern at Letzigrund today.

4) FC Zürich begin their title defense today in the Axpo-Swiss Super League against runners up Young Boys Bern. FC Zürich won the league last season by six points with two more victories than Young Boys. They'll be playing at Zürich's home ground, Letzigrund, where they defeated the Young Boys twice last season by scores of 3-0 and 2-1. FC Zürich will have a fully healthy squad and have added Swiss national team striker Jonathan Vonlanthen. Vonlanthen has some scoring punch but his specialty is fine passing as he amassed 36 assists in 34 matches for the Swiss national team. Young Boys will be without Mario Raimondi (M, Achilles) and Thierry Doubaï (M) for today's match but are otherwise healthy. Raimondi was their second leading goal scorer last season. This is essentially a rematch of the sides who dominated on their home grounds and were dominated away from home, except Young Boys are a bit weaker and FC Zürich have added Verlonthen so I have to favor FC Zürich.

July 13th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-1-0 today so it wasn't so bad, but it could've been better with say a Danica Patrick pick or the Cubs with Zambrano. Started out with Darron Stiles who was fortunate Steve Stricker hadn't begun to pick up the pace until later in the day. Then I went with Buehrle and the White Sox. Buehrle was bad, just plain bad. Even the Twins were remarking about how many pitches Buehrle was leaving up over the plate. I finished the day with the St. Louis Cardinals to finish with a W1. In other news The Thoroughbred picked up another game on me to put me down by two. Tomorrow's looking pretty sparse so my rally may have to wait. And on to the picks.

Recaps

Stricker Continues Strong Play To Pick Up Win At TPC Deere Run

Round 3 Front 9 Scores: Darron Stiles 34, Steve Stricker 34

Steve Stricker was only -1 through the first nine holes but kept his head down and put together some strong play over the next 27 holes to win the John Deere Open by three strokes. It's his sixth Tour win in his career and his second this year alone. Nice one Steve!

Wrap UpLeaderboardPhotosStricker InterviewTranscriptHighlights

Gomez Takes Point On Buehrle Bombing Run

Minnesota Twins 13 - 7 Chicago White Sox

Wow. Games like this happen to just about every pitcher in the majors, but still. Wow.

``The only people more surprised by White Sox ace Mark Buehrle's clunker of an outing against Minnesota on Sunday were the Twins themselves. Carlos Gomez drove in a career-high five runs and Minnesota had an unusually productive afternoon against Buehrle in a 13-7 victory over Chicago. Buehrle (9-3) gave up eight runs and 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings, his shortest outing of the season. `He left a few balls up and over the middle of the plate,' said Brendan Harris, who went deep and doubled twice in three at-bats against Buehrle. `That's more than I've seen in the six or seven times I've faced him.'"

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Rich Franklin Catches Cubs Looking To Pick Up Save 21

St. Louis Cardinals 4 - 2 Chicago Cubs

Randy Wells pitched a terrific game against the Cardinals save Ryan Ludwick who homered twice off the young rookie.

``Cubs starter Randy Wells (4-4) handled Albert Pujols in the nightcap, but couldn't get out Ludwick. Wells got Pujols to hit into a doubleplay with runners on first and second and no outs in the first inning. Ludwick followed with a two-run shot to center. Ludwick also had a double in the eighth to finish the doubleheader 5 for 8 with four RBIs. He had four extra base hits on the day. Ludwick is batting .455 during a nine-game hitting streak. Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin struck out the side in the ninth for his 21st save in 22 chances. Wainwright (10-5) allowed two runs and scattered seven hits. He struck out five and walked three as the Cardinals split the four-game series."

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Victor Crivoi vs. Denis Istomin - Istomin
2) Örebro SK @ Trelleborgs FF - Trelleborgs FF win
3) Who Will Win The Home Run Derby: Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard vs. Any Other Contestant - Pujols or Howard
4) Maximum Home Runs Hit By 1 Player In A Single Round: 15 or fewer vs. 16 or more - 15 or fewer
5) How Many Points Will Blake Griffin Score (Summer League, Lakers vs. Clippers): 14 or fewer vs. 15 or more - 15 or more
6) How Many Home Runs Will The Winner Hit In The Final Round: 5 or fewer vs. 6 or more - 6 or more
7) Brandon Jennings vs. Tyreke Evans - Evans pts. + ast.

Previews

Image and copyright owned by Charles Fazzino.

3) Albert Pujols has participated in the home run derby twice since 2000 and has yet to win it. In 2003 he came in second after losing by one home run to Garrett Anderson in the final round. In 2007 he was eliminated in the second round by Vladimir Guerrero. Although they both had 9 home runs in that round Pujols had only 13 homers in the competition up to that point while Guerrero had accumulated 14. Pujols had totaled 16 home runs in the regular season by the All-Star break in 2007. This season he has 32.

Ryan Howard has also participated in the home run derby twice since 2000, winning it in 2006 with 5 home runs in the final round and being eliminated in the first round in 2007 with three. Howard has 22 home runs at this point in the season.

Regular Season Stats
	ABHR
Pujols	9.59
Howard	15.05
Fielder	14.00
A. Gonzalez	12.83
Pena	12.96
Cruz	13.50
Mauer	16.07
Inge	14.24
ABHR - at bats per home run

The contestants in this years home run derby are, from the National League, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. From the American League Carlos Pena, Nelson Cruz, Joe Mauer, and Brandon Inge will participate. Of these other six players only Prince Fielder has participated before, bowing out in the first round in 2007 with three home runs. So Pujols and Howard have four years of home run derby experience with a win and runner up finish between the two while the other six have one total year of experience and that was a first round exit. The table to the left shows Albert Pujols is far and away the best home run hitter participating with better than a home run every 10 at bats. At bats and not plate appearances were used since here the batters will not be thrown balls and will be seeing easier to hit pitches than in the average game. Albert Pujols has yet to win this contest and I think today may be the day for it.

4) For this and the other home run derby prop my main source was Baseball Almanac's home run derby results from 2000 to 2008. The format for the each round of the derby is that each player is given 10 'outs', with an out being any hit that does not result in a home run. So here we're asking whether a player will hit 16 home runs before they hit 10 non-home runs. The first time it happened this decade was in 2005. Bobby Abreu hit 24 home runs in the first round and David Ortiz hit 17 in the first round. In 2006 David Wright hit 16 in the first round. Then, last year, Josh Hamilton hit 28 in the first round. So, in 126 attempts the feat of 16 home runs in a single round has been accomplished 4 times. Yea, it could happen again, but it's not very likely.

Past Winners Final Round Total
Year	Winner	Total
2008	Morneau	5
2007	Guerrero	3
2006	Howard	5
2005	Abreu	11
2004	Tejada	5
2003	Anderson	9
2002	Giambi	7
2001	L. Gonzalez	6
2000	Sosa	9

6) The vast majority of people currently picking this matchup believe there will be at least 6 home runs hit by the winner of the competition. There's quite a bit more precedent for this than for 16 or more home runs in a single round being hit as five of the last nine winners have had 6 or more homers in the final round. It hasn't happened in three years, however, ever since Rafael Palmeiro became the first major leaguer to be penalized for steroid use on August 1^st, 2005. Five is the most home runs that have been hit in the final round in those three years.

July 12th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Aw hell, terrible day at 1-3-0 which might help explain why it seemed like all of my picks were losing even though they ended up at 8-8-0. Started out with Woody Austin who played a decent front 9 at 1-under but it wasn't near enough against a solid Mark Calcavecchia. Then I picked Grasshoppers knowing that FC Aarau was the better pick. Looking at the highlights Grasshoppers had some great chances but just couldn't capitalize. I got my lone win of the day with the Angels. 14 runs, a couple homers, a few doubles, a triple, and I guess that qualifies as 'pesky' according to the douchebags at ESPN. Then it was back to a loss as Millwood was left in one inning too many. He gave up a single, a home run, and a double that was scored later in the inning before he was relieved without getting a single out. And so on to the picks.

Recaps

Darron Stiles Takes Three Stroke Lead Into Final Day Despite Stricker's Course Record 61

Front 9 Scores: Mark Calcavecchia 31, Woody Austin 34 (misses cut)

It all started in the first round when Mark Calcavecchia and Michael Bradley made a pair of birdie putts from just under nine feet out. Woody Austin had an eight footer of his own for birdie but failed to make it and thus began a run of nine holes where Calcavecchia was just a bit better. There was one bogey on the front 9 between the members of the threesome, by Michael Bradley on the 8^th hole, but otherwise it was all birdies and pars. Calcavecchia sank a sweet 14' 6" putt on the par-3 seventh and an even sweeter 32 foot putt on the ninth hole to end the front 9 three strokes in front of Austin. Both Calcavecchia and Austin went on to bogey a couple of holes on the back 9 but only Calcavecchia had the wiggle room to avoid missing the cut.

Wrap UpLeaderboardStroke-By-StrokePhotosHighlights

Grasshoppers Miss Out On Chances As New Aarau Captain Sandro Burki Makes His Mark

FC Aarau 1 - 0 Grasshoppers Club

F.C. Aarau had a corner kick in the first half. They got off a headed shot that was saved, cleared out poorly, then shot back towards goal again, bounced off the cross bar and then finally Burki caught the rebound and booted it in from up close.

``Aarau hatte allerdings auch das Glück, dass bereits die erste Torchance verwertete werden konnte. Nach einem Eckball und einem misslungenen Befreiungsschlag von Paulo Menezes, der auf diese Saison hin von Aarau zu GC gewechselt hat, traf Aaraus neuer Captain Sandro Burki zum 1:0 (22.). Danach konnte der FCA ganz seinen kämpferischen Tugenden und seiner Kontertaktik vertrauen."

Read more....Box ScorePhotosHighlights

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Yankees' Five Home Runs Falls Six Runs Short Of Angels

Los Angeles Angels 14 - 8 New York Yankees

Los Angeles was just too much offensively for the Yankees to handle for the second day in a row.

``For the seventh time in the Angels' last eight games, they fell behind by at least four runs. And for the fourth time, they won -- including Friday night's 10-6 victory, when they overcame a 5-1 deficit against Joba Chamberlain. It's the first time they have won four games in this fashion on one homestand in the franchise's 49-year history. The Angels lead the majors with 26 comeback wins, one more than the Yankees. Mike Napoli hit a go-ahead two-run double off reliever David Robinson during a seven-run fifth inning and added a solo homer in the seventh, leading the Angels to a 14-8 victory on Saturday after the Yankees tied a season high with five home runs, including two from Alex Rodriguez. Brandon Wood, a perennial prospect recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake on Friday, hit a two-run homer during the fifth-inning rally and Howie Kendrick capped it with a two-run single. Former Yankees outfielder Bobby Abreu had three RBIs."

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Mariners Pitchers Maul Rangers Bats

Seattle Mariners 4 - 1 Texas Rangers

Millwood was at 100 pitches but I guess Texas wanted one more inning from him. Rob Johnson took advantage to get his first home run of the season.

``Ichiro Suzuki added an RBI single later in the inning and Russell Branyan hit his 22nd home run in the third. Jarrod Washburn (6-6) gave up a run on Ian Kinsler's double in the third, and allowed only four hits in seven innings."

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Steve Stricker vs. Darron Stiles - Stiles cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) James Blake vs. Marin Cilic - Blake
3) Danica Patrick vs. James Wheldon - Patrick has a better finishing position
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
5) Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets - Cincinnati
6) Who Will Win The Women's U.S. Open: Cristie Kerr vs. Rest Of Field - Kerr
7) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
8) Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - Chicago
9) Cork City @ Sligo Rovers - Sligo Rovers win or draw
10) Atlético MG @ Cruzeiro - Atlético MG
11) Minnesota Lynx @ San Antonio Silver Stars - Minnesota
12) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - St. Louis

Previews

Will the Cubs' bats show up against Kyle Lohse? They do have a BAA of .381 life-time against him.

4) The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up the first half of the season with a doubleheader at Wrigley Field today. They've given the start in the day game to last season's superstar Kyle Lohse. Lohse has posted some terrific numbers this season, a 3.99 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts, but has had to deal with an unprecedented amount of adversity. He's been hit by pitches three times while trying to bunt, once during his most recent minor league rehab stint, he's injured his knee twice while fielding the ball, he's had a start shortened to two innings by rain, and he's had to pitch with the flu. Today will be his first major league start in over a month and comes off of two rehab starts over the past couple of weeks. His most recent start was with the AAA Memphis Redbirds and he turned in a fairly commanding performance, pitching for 6 innings and allowing only 2 hits while striking out 6 and walking 2.

Facing off against Lohse will be the Chicago Cubs' mercurial Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano has been a solid starter for the Cubs, racking up a 3.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 15 starts. He's typically good to limit a team for under three earned runs in 6 or more innings as well. The one major blip on that record came against, you guessed it, the St. Louis Cardinals. On that day in April Zambrano pitched for 7 innings against the Cards, gaving up 7 earned runs from 9 hits, including three homers! The Cubs still won the game 8-7 and the Cardinals' lineup is only batting .252 with a .472 slugging average against him so I doubt the damage will be as bad this time around. One concern, however, is Zambrano's fastball which has lost some velocity in a big way recently. In his last two start's Big Z's fastball has averaged at or below 90mph.

Both teams are batting around their season average recently with a bit of a reduction in power so I would not be surprised to see two or three home runs in this game. I think Lohse, coming back from injury, will still be a little rusty and I think he'll continue to struggle against a team that has had his number in the past. Zambrano's worst game of the season so far was against St. Louis and I expect he'll also be touched up some in this game, especially if he continues to deliver 85mph fast balls. Alfonso Soriano needs to wake up for a big game to give the Cubs a good chance of winning this one and Chicago will probably need to take a lead of two or three runs at least into the latter innings. If they're behind I would certainly favor the Cardinals' bullpen to hold on to that lead. It won't be an easy one for the Cubs but I think they'll have enough offensive firepower to win a close one.

Sligo Rovers are 0-1-1 (W-D-L) against Cork City in league play and recently knocked them out of the FAI Cup with a 2-1 replay victory at The Showgrounds.

9) Cork City F.C. will visit The Showgrounds today to play Sligo Rovers for the third time in just over a month. They were knocked out of the FAI Cup by Sligo Rovers after a 2-2 draw at home followed by a 2-1 loss at The Showgrounds a week later. That brings Cork City's overall record against Sligo Rovers to 1-2-1 during this campaign and 1-1-0 (W-D-L) in league play. Each team has scored 5 goals in those four matches.

Sligo are a good squad and I don’t think people always remember that. They have some very good players and they are now an established Premier Division side, and will cause problems for any team.
---Cork City coach Paul Doolin

Cork City F.C. are trying to fight through a period of inconsistency as they have struggled to avoid losses lately which tend to nullify their wins. They still have a chance to leapfrog Derry City for third place in the tables if they win today, however. In terms of home and away records Cork City are the 4^th best team in the league with a 5-2-2 record away from home and 14 goals scored to 7 conceded. Sligo Rovers, on the other hand, are the worst team in the tables when it comes to home record with a 2-3-4 record there and 8 goals scored to 12 conceded. If it weren't for Sligo Rovers success against Cork City this season along with their strong showing last season (they finished in 4^th, two points ahead of Cork City) this would be a lopsided matchup.

Home/Away Results For Sligo/Cork
Sligo Rovers	Cork City F.C.
Drogheda United (2:2)	Galway United (2:0)
Derry City (0:1)	Drogheda United (1:2)
Galway United (2:0)	Bray Wanderers (2:0)

Both sides are relatively free of injury concerns for this match. Sligo Rovers will be missing Stephen Parkhouse(F, knee) and Owen Morrison(F) and Gavin Peers(D) will face late fitness tests. For Cork City Robert Mezeckis(D, Achilles) and Billy Dennehy(M, hamstring) are both still sidelined while Joe Gamble(M) is a doubt. If Morrison misses the match for Sligo it will blunt their attacking prowess though they will still have plenty of options. If Gamble remains out along with Mezeckis, along with Mezeckis it will hurt Cork City's attack more. Both of these sides play tough defense with Sligo Rovers allowing 1.3 goals per home match and Cork City allowing 0.8 goals per away match so I expect this to be a low scoring affair. Odds on the match have Cork City at evens, Sligo Rovers at + 240, and the draw at +225 which comes out to the win or draw being given a 54.6% chance. I think Cork City's best chance for a win is a clean sheet and they can do it, but I don't think they will here.

July 11th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-1-0 today, picked up a win with Carpenter and the Cards then took the Chicago Sky on a random pick. I figured I've had 9 streaks of five or better now, I can get back to W6 easy enough. And that's what I'm faced with now as the Sky lost in a pathetic effort. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick Have A Delightful Day At Wrigley

St. Louis Cardinals 8 - 3 Chicago Cubs

Chris Carpenter gave up a three run homer to Derrek Lee but otherwise the Cubs did not really threaten to score.

``Harden (5-6) threw 101 pitches in five innings, giving up seven hits and four runs. Aaron Heilman relieved in the sixth and the Cardinals quickly added four more runs. St. Louis loaded the bases on a single and two walks and Ludwick delivered a two-run single that put St. Louis up 6-3. Rick Ankiel walked to reload the bases and the Cards got another run when Cubs left fielder Alfonso Soriano couldn't hold Yadier Molina's shallow fly. No error was charged on the play because Soriano picked the ball up and was able to force Ankiel at second. Heilman then threw a wild pitch to allow the fourth run to cross."

Read more....Box Score

The Sky Is Falling, Indiana Extend Winning Streak To Nine

Indiana Fever 83 - 54 Chicago Sky

Typical WNBA blowout.

``The Sky (6-7) took their fourth straight loss and first at home. Chicago shot only 22.9 (8 of 35) in the opening half and its 54 points were a season low. The torrid pace eased after Indiana used a 9-0 run to build a 42-11 lead early in the second period. The Fever shot 52 percent (9 of 17) in the period on the way to a 54-23 halftime lead as Murphy hit all five of her shots for 11 points. The Fever also set team records for most points in an opening quarter and most first-half points and first-half point margin on the road."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Mark Calcavecchia vs. Woody Austin - Austin cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Grasshoppers @ FC Aarau - Grasshoppers win
3) Paula Creamer vs. Cristie Kerr - Kerr cards a lower third round score
4) Houston Dynamo @ Seattle Sounders FC - Houston win or draw
5) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
6) Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics - Washington
7) Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - Chicago
8) Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty - New York
9) Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty - Gugerty
10) Kyle Busch vs. Tony Stewart - Busch has a better finishing position
11) Columbus Crew @ Chicago Fire - Chicago win
12) Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies - Atlanta
13) Phoenix Mercury @ Sacramento Monarchs - Phoenix
14) Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners - Texas
15) Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping - Bisping
16) Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir - Mir

Previews

2) It's the first game of the new season of the Axpo Super League in Switzerland featuring the ever-popular Grasshoppers Club at F.C. Aarau's Brügglifeld. Last season Grasshoppers finished in 4^th place with a 12-14-10 (W-D-L) record with 57 goals scored and 48 goals conceded. They were also the 4^th best team in terms of away record. FC Aarau finished in 5^th place with an 11-11-14 record and 35 goals scored with 51 goals conceded. They also had the 5^th best home record. Grasshoppers were 1-2-1 against FC Aarau last season with the only victory being a 3-0 trouncing of Aarau at Brügglifeld.

Overall it would seem Grasshoppers are not much more dominant than Aarau, certainly they weren't last season. Indeed, oddsmakers have Grasshoppers at +135 to win the match with FC Aarau at +175 and the draw at +220 so that overall the Aarau win or draw is being given a 61.4% chance of occuring. FC Aarau have lost a number of players to off-season transfers, however, including Kristian Nushi, Mario Mutsch, Cristian Ianu, Rogerio and Frédéric Page. Rogerio was their most efficient offensive player in terms of goals and assists per minute and he made the move to Grasshoppers. Grasshoppers will have to do without their top goal man Vincenzo Rinnella who is still recovering from off-season knee surgery. They will also be missing offensive midfielder Alain Schultz and defender Boris Smiljanic. It will be the debut of new Grasshoppers head coach Ciriaco Sforza, their ninth coach in the six years since winning the title in 2003. A lot is being made of his arrival and hopes are high around Grasshoppers Club. Honestly, I think FC Aarau will still have the quality to at least secure a draw and Grasshoppers is my pick only because I'm a fan and would like to see them start the season off with a bang.

July 10th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)3-0-0 today as I stretched my streak out to five games for the ninth time this round. Started out with Daniel Chopra who simply had to play par golf to jump ahead of Charley Hoffman and hang on for the win. From there I took Randers F.C. to beat up on Northern Ireland's Linfield, and they did. I missed out on taking 27 or more hits, runs, or errors in the Phillies/Reds game but I did get in Tim Lincecum's strikeouts. It was a close one but Lincecum got one last strikeout before being relieved. I'll be taking on TheThoroughbred's blog here for the next week so check it out for the additional insight! And on to the picks.

Recaps

Janzen, Stiles Take Lead With Pair Of 64's, Kenny Perry 4 Strokes Back

Front 9 Scores: Daniel Chopra 34, Charley Hoffman 38

Daniel Chopra, who ended the day tied for 11^th, went up a stroke on the first hole as Charley Hoffman bogeyed. The lead for Chopra increased when Hoffman hit into a water hazard on #2 and ended the hole with a double bogey. Chopra never looked back as the two played mostly par golf for the rest of the front nine. Chopra came back a stroke on the eighth hole with a bogey but made up for it by sticking his approach shot within three feet on the ninth hole for birdie.

Wraup UpLeaderboardHighlightsPhotos

Randers Dismantle Linfield To Advance 7-0 On Aggregate

Randers F.C. 3 - 0 Linfield

The Belfast media are none too happy with this one, no pictures of celebrating Randers players.

``Randers took the lead on 20 minutes against the run of play. The Linfield defence allowed a dangerous cross to come in from the right and Olsen blasted past Blayney from six yards. The Blues should have equalised on 21 minutes. Michael Carvill fed the ball through to Philip Lowry inside the box but he couldn’t find the target and the ball went just wide. Randers had an opportunity to go further ahead on 28 minutes but centre forward Nygaard’s goal bound shot was blocked by a Linfield defender. It was 3-0 on the night after 82 minutes after some poor Linfield defending. O’Kane lost possession and allowed Berg to dribble through on goal and blast the ball home from close range."

Read more....MinutesDanish Commentary

Lincecum's No-Hitter Bid Unravels Quickly As Giants Run Away With Win

San Francisco Giants 9 - 3 San Diego Padres (Tim Lincecum 8 K, Josh Geer 7 H)

This was a little too close for comfort as Lincecum nabbed a final strikeout before walking two batters and being relieved.

``Tim Lincecum carried a no-hit bid into the seventh inning and won his fourth straight start, baffling San Diego with his nasty changeup and a curveball nearly as impressive in the San Francisco Giants' 9-3 victory over the Padres on Thursday night. Lincecum's scoreless innings streak ended at 29, third-longest in San Francisco history. Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry pitched 40 straight scoreless innings in 1967 and then went 39 in a row in 1970. Bengie Molina hit a two-run homer in the first to stake Lincecum to an early lead. Travis Ishikawa and Juan Uribe added back-to-back solo shots in the team's four-run fifth, the first time this season the Giants have hit consecutive homers. Lincecum followed with a single to left."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Mark Calcavecchia vs. Woody Austin - Austin cards a lower or identical front 9 score
2) Lorena Ochoa vs. Paula Creamer - Ochoa cards a lower second round score
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - St. Louis
4) Galway United @ St. Patrick's Athletic - Galway United win or draw
5) Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles - Baltimore
6) Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets - New York
7) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
8) Brad Keselowski vs. Joey Logano - Keselowski has a better finishing position
9) Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
10) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
11) Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners - Texas

Previews

Can Rich Harden pitch to a strong offense at Wrigley Field?

3) The Chicago Cubs will hope a return to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field will help them regain some semblance of an offense. Against the Atlanta Braves they mustered up only 6 runs total in the three game series while batting .237 as a team with a .355 slugging average. Maybe the return of Aramis Ramirez to the lineup can help out. He wasn't able to turn things around for the Cubs in the series against Atlanta but he is sure to continue to improve as he gets more playing time. Unfortunately for Chicago they will be facing former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter in today's game. Carpenter has battled with injury this season but has been generally dominant while healthy. He has a 2.32 ERA through 77²/₃ innings this season with a 0.82 WHIP. He's been dominant with a wide array of ptiches as well, relying on his fastball only 50% of the time where most pitchers put on the heat at least 75% of the time. Carpenter has given up more than 5 hits in a start only three times this season with his only poor start coming on June 30^th against the Giants where he gave up 5 earned runs from 11 hits in only 5 innings. The only real caveat with Carpenter is that he has struggled in the past against three Cubs sluggers in particular: Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano. Looking at the table to the left one can see Soriano especially has had Carpenter's number. Of course, those stats are built up over long careers. The last time Carpenter faced Chicago he shut them out for 5 innings, allowing only three hits. Lee and Soriano combined to go 1 for 8 in that game with a lone single between them.

Cubs Big Bats Against Carpenter
	D. Lee	A. Ramirez	A. Soriano
AB	40	39	31
Bat	.325	.282	.387
Slg	.375	.436	.871

Chicago will counter with Rich Harden who has a 5.35 ERA and 1.49 WHIP through 13 starts this season. Harden has been very up and down this season, though he has yet to shut any team out during a start he has limited a few to two runs or less through 6 innings. At Wrigley Field, however, he has not been even that reliable. He's given up 13 earned runs in his last two starts there and 19 earned runs in his last 19 innings pitched there. Especially against heavier hitting teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Houston has Harden struggled against. He's given up at least one home run in 11 of his 13 starts and has given up two home runs in 3 of his last 5.

Overall I'd say one would have to favor Carpenter and the Red Birds in this matchup. The Cubs have a lot of good batters who just haven't been performing too well this season, and they could potentially score some big hits off of Carpenter. If the Cardinals are unable to generate runs in support of Carpenter then of course Chicago is going to have a chance to win. I think St. Louis' bullpen is more likely to secure a win for their starter however, and I think the Cubs are more likely to be playing from behind once the bullpens come into play. Keep in mind, Carpenter has had more than 3 runs of support in a game only once this season.

St. Patrick's Athletic have struggled at Richmond Park all season, but not as badly as Galway United have struggled away recently.

4) Galway United visit Richmond Park in Inchicore in an attempt to take a third straight victory from St. Patrick's Athletic this season. They defeated St. Patrick's 3-0 at Richmond Park in the first game of the season as Saints coach Jeff Kenna inserted seven off-season signings into the starting lineup. They picked up a second win against Saints at home 2-1, giving up a goal on a penalty and scoring twice from free kicks around the box.

Looking at the tables shows St. Patrick's have been a bit better side this season, but are one of the lesser teams at home (7^th) while Galway are one of the lesser teams (8^th) on the road. Galway United have struggled away recently losing their last three matches by a combined score of 5-0. St. Patrick's have actually improved at home despite winning only one of their past three matches, a 3-1 win against Bohemians FC, one of the stronger sides in the Irish Premier. Personally, I feel St. Patrick's should be much higher in the tables than they are, that they have the talent for that. They are a much different team than they were from last season, however, and they have yet to gel more than half-way through to the final match. If they have yet to find the consistency, discipline, and team spirit to win 18 matches in then they may be faced with the prospect that they do not have the right group of players.

Home/Away Results For Saints/Galway
St. Patrick's	Galway Utd.
Shamrock Rovers (1:2)	Shamrock Rovers (0:1)
Bohemian FC (3:1)	Bohemian FC (0:2)
Bray Wanderers (1:1)	Sligo Rovers (0:2)

There are some fairly large injury concerns for both sides. Galway United will most likely be missing Derek O'Brien(M) who is recovering from a hamstring injury. O'Brien scored a brace in the 3-0 away win at St. Patrick's earlier this season. Galway will be bolstered, however, by the return of Dave Cooke(M), Sean Kelly(M), Alan Murphy(M), and possibly Shane Fitzgerald(M). St. Patrick's will be without Mark Quigley(F, jaw), Gints Friemanis(M, hand), Mark Leech(F, leg) and Gary Dempsey(M, leg), but should see the return of Damian Lynch(D) and John Lester(M). Overall the injuries facing St. Patrick's are more critical to their success. Still, both of these sides play an open style of play, are susceptible to counter attacks, and are capable of scoring from set pieces. I think Galway United's defense is more disciplined as they have been playing together for a longer period of time so I would give them the advantage here to at least draw in a low scoring game. St. Patrick's have the talent to defeat any team in the league, however, so I can't say they don't have a chance to win outright.