July 13th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-1-0 today so it wasn't so bad, but it could've been better with say a Danica Patrick pick or the Cubs with Zambrano. Started out with Darron Stiles who was fortunate Steve Stricker hadn't begun to pick up the pace until later in the day. Then I went with Buehrle and the White Sox. Buehrle was bad, just plain bad. Even the Twins were remarking about how many pitches Buehrle was leaving up over the plate. I finished the day with the St. Louis Cardinals to finish with a W1. In other news The Thoroughbred picked up another game on me to put me down by two. Tomorrow's looking pretty sparse so my rally may have to wait. And on to the picks.

Recaps

Stricker Continues Strong Play To Pick Up Win At TPC Deere Run

Round 3 Front 9 Scores: Darron Stiles 34, Steve Stricker 34

Steve Stricker was only -1 through the first nine holes but kept his head down and put together some strong play over the next 27 holes to win the John Deere Open by three strokes. It's his sixth Tour win in his career and his second this year alone. Nice one Steve!

Wrap UpLeaderboardPhotosStricker InterviewTranscriptHighlights

Gomez Takes Point On Buehrle Bombing Run

Minnesota Twins 13 - 7 Chicago White Sox

Wow. Games like this happen to just about every pitcher in the majors, but still. Wow.

``The only people more surprised by White Sox ace Mark Buehrle's clunker of an outing against Minnesota on Sunday were the Twins themselves. Carlos Gomez drove in a career-high five runs and Minnesota had an unusually productive afternoon against Buehrle in a 13-7 victory over Chicago. Buehrle (9-3) gave up eight runs and 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings, his shortest outing of the season. `He left a few balls up and over the middle of the plate,' said Brendan Harris, who went deep and doubled twice in three at-bats against Buehrle. `That's more than I've seen in the six or seven times I've faced him.'"

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Rich Franklin Catches Cubs Looking To Pick Up Save 21

St. Louis Cardinals 4 - 2 Chicago Cubs

Randy Wells pitched a terrific game against the Cardinals save Ryan Ludwick who homered twice off the young rookie.

``Cubs starter Randy Wells (4-4) handled Albert Pujols in the nightcap, but couldn't get out Ludwick. Wells got Pujols to hit into a doubleplay with runners on first and second and no outs in the first inning. Ludwick followed with a two-run shot to center. Ludwick also had a double in the eighth to finish the doubleheader 5 for 8 with four RBIs. He had four extra base hits on the day. Ludwick is batting .455 during a nine-game hitting streak. Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin struck out the side in the ninth for his 21st save in 22 chances. Wainwright (10-5) allowed two runs and scattered seven hits. He struck out five and walked three as the Cardinals split the four-game series."

Read more....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Victor Crivoi vs. Denis Istomin - Istomin
2) Örebro SK @ Trelleborgs FF - Trelleborgs FF win
3) Who Will Win The Home Run Derby: Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard vs. Any Other Contestant - Pujols or Howard
4) Maximum Home Runs Hit By 1 Player In A Single Round: 15 or fewer vs. 16 or more - 15 or fewer
5) How Many Points Will Blake Griffin Score (Summer League, Lakers vs. Clippers): 14 or fewer vs. 15 or more - 15 or more
6) How Many Home Runs Will The Winner Hit In The Final Round: 5 or fewer vs. 6 or more - 6 or more
7) Brandon Jennings vs. Tyreke Evans - Evans pts. + ast.

Previews

Image and copyright owned by Charles Fazzino.

3) Albert Pujols has participated in the home run derby twice since 2000 and has yet to win it. In 2003 he came in second after losing by one home run to Garrett Anderson in the final round. In 2007 he was eliminated in the second round by Vladimir Guerrero. Although they both had 9 home runs in that round Pujols had only 13 homers in the competition up to that point while Guerrero had accumulated 14. Pujols had totaled 16 home runs in the regular season by the All-Star break in 2007. This season he has 32.

Ryan Howard has also participated in the home run derby twice since 2000, winning it in 2006 with 5 home runs in the final round and being eliminated in the first round in 2007 with three. Howard has 22 home runs at this point in the season.

Regular Season Stats
	ABHR
Pujols	9.59
Howard	15.05
Fielder	14.00
A. Gonzalez	12.83
Pena	12.96
Cruz	13.50
Mauer	16.07
Inge	14.24
ABHR - at bats per home run

The contestants in this years home run derby are, from the National League, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. From the American League Carlos Pena, Nelson Cruz, Joe Mauer, and Brandon Inge will participate. Of these other six players only Prince Fielder has participated before, bowing out in the first round in 2007 with three home runs. So Pujols and Howard have four years of home run derby experience with a win and runner up finish between the two while the other six have one total year of experience and that was a first round exit. The table to the left shows Albert Pujols is far and away the best home run hitter participating with better than a home run every 10 at bats. At bats and not plate appearances were used since here the batters will not be thrown balls and will be seeing easier to hit pitches than in the average game. Albert Pujols has yet to win this contest and I think today may be the day for it.

4) For this and the other home run derby prop my main source was Baseball Almanac's home run derby results from 2000 to 2008. The format for the each round of the derby is that each player is given 10 'outs', with an out being any hit that does not result in a home run. So here we're asking whether a player will hit 16 home runs before they hit 10 non-home runs. The first time it happened this decade was in 2005. Bobby Abreu hit 24 home runs in the first round and David Ortiz hit 17 in the first round. In 2006 David Wright hit 16 in the first round. Then, last year, Josh Hamilton hit 28 in the first round. So, in 126 attempts the feat of 16 home runs in a single round has been accomplished 4 times. Yea, it could happen again, but it's not very likely.

Past Winners Final Round Total
Year	Winner	Total
2008	Morneau	5
2007	Guerrero	3
2006	Howard	5
2005	Abreu	11
2004	Tejada	5
2003	Anderson	9
2002	Giambi	7
2001	L. Gonzalez	6
2000	Sosa	9

6) The vast majority of people currently picking this matchup believe there will be at least 6 home runs hit by the winner of the competition. There's quite a bit more precedent for this than for 16 or more home runs in a single round being hit as five of the last nine winners have had 6 or more homers in the final round. It hasn't happened in three years, however, ever since Rafael Palmeiro became the first major leaguer to be penalized for steroid use on August 1^st, 2005. Five is the most home runs that have been hit in the final round in those three years.