July 10th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)3-0-0 today as I stretched my streak out to five games for the ninth time this round. Started out with Daniel Chopra who simply had to play par golf to jump ahead of Charley Hoffman and hang on for the win. From there I took Randers F.C. to beat up on Northern Ireland's Linfield, and they did. I missed out on taking 27 or more hits, runs, or errors in the Phillies/Reds game but I did get in Tim Lincecum's strikeouts. It was a close one but Lincecum got one last strikeout before being relieved. I'll be taking on TheThoroughbred's blog here for the next week so check it out for the additional insight! And on to the picks.

Recaps

Janzen, Stiles Take Lead With Pair Of 64's, Kenny Perry 4 Strokes Back

Front 9 Scores: Daniel Chopra 34, Charley Hoffman 38

Daniel Chopra, who ended the day tied for 11^th, went up a stroke on the first hole as Charley Hoffman bogeyed. The lead for Chopra increased when Hoffman hit into a water hazard on #2 and ended the hole with a double bogey. Chopra never looked back as the two played mostly par golf for the rest of the front nine. Chopra came back a stroke on the eighth hole with a bogey but made up for it by sticking his approach shot within three feet on the ninth hole for birdie.

Wraup UpLeaderboardHighlightsPhotos

Randers Dismantle Linfield To Advance 7-0 On Aggregate

Randers F.C. 3 - 0 Linfield

The Belfast media are none too happy with this one, no pictures of celebrating Randers players.

``Randers took the lead on 20 minutes against the run of play. The Linfield defence allowed a dangerous cross to come in from the right and Olsen blasted past Blayney from six yards. The Blues should have equalised on 21 minutes. Michael Carvill fed the ball through to Philip Lowry inside the box but he couldn’t find the target and the ball went just wide. Randers had an opportunity to go further ahead on 28 minutes but centre forward Nygaard’s goal bound shot was blocked by a Linfield defender. It was 3-0 on the night after 82 minutes after some poor Linfield defending. O’Kane lost possession and allowed Berg to dribble through on goal and blast the ball home from close range."

Read more....MinutesDanish Commentary

Lincecum's No-Hitter Bid Unravels Quickly As Giants Run Away With Win

San Francisco Giants 9 - 3 San Diego Padres (Tim Lincecum 8 K, Josh Geer 7 H)

This was a little too close for comfort as Lincecum nabbed a final strikeout before walking two batters and being relieved.

``Tim Lincecum carried a no-hit bid into the seventh inning and won his fourth straight start, baffling San Diego with his nasty changeup and a curveball nearly as impressive in the San Francisco Giants' 9-3 victory over the Padres on Thursday night. Lincecum's scoreless innings streak ended at 29, third-longest in San Francisco history. Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry pitched 40 straight scoreless innings in 1967 and then went 39 in a row in 1970. Bengie Molina hit a two-run homer in the first to stake Lincecum to an early lead. Travis Ishikawa and Juan Uribe added back-to-back solo shots in the team's four-run fifth, the first time this season the Giants have hit consecutive homers. Lincecum followed with a single to left."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Mark Calcavecchia vs. Woody Austin - Austin cards a lower or identical front 9 score
2) Lorena Ochoa vs. Paula Creamer - Ochoa cards a lower second round score
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - St. Louis
4) Galway United @ St. Patrick's Athletic - Galway United win or draw
5) Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles - Baltimore
6) Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets - New York
7) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
8) Brad Keselowski vs. Joey Logano - Keselowski has a better finishing position
9) Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
10) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
11) Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners - Texas

Previews

Can Rich Harden pitch to a strong offense at Wrigley Field?

3) The Chicago Cubs will hope a return to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field will help them regain some semblance of an offense. Against the Atlanta Braves they mustered up only 6 runs total in the three game series while batting .237 as a team with a .355 slugging average. Maybe the return of Aramis Ramirez to the lineup can help out. He wasn't able to turn things around for the Cubs in the series against Atlanta but he is sure to continue to improve as he gets more playing time. Unfortunately for Chicago they will be facing former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter in today's game. Carpenter has battled with injury this season but has been generally dominant while healthy. He has a 2.32 ERA through 77²/₃ innings this season with a 0.82 WHIP. He's been dominant with a wide array of ptiches as well, relying on his fastball only 50% of the time where most pitchers put on the heat at least 75% of the time. Carpenter has given up more than 5 hits in a start only three times this season with his only poor start coming on June 30^th against the Giants where he gave up 5 earned runs from 11 hits in only 5 innings. The only real caveat with Carpenter is that he has struggled in the past against three Cubs sluggers in particular: Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano. Looking at the table to the left one can see Soriano especially has had Carpenter's number. Of course, those stats are built up over long careers. The last time Carpenter faced Chicago he shut them out for 5 innings, allowing only three hits. Lee and Soriano combined to go 1 for 8 in that game with a lone single between them.

Cubs Big Bats Against Carpenter
	D. Lee	A. Ramirez	A. Soriano
AB	40	39	31
Bat	.325	.282	.387
Slg	.375	.436	.871

Chicago will counter with Rich Harden who has a 5.35 ERA and 1.49 WHIP through 13 starts this season. Harden has been very up and down this season, though he has yet to shut any team out during a start he has limited a few to two runs or less through 6 innings. At Wrigley Field, however, he has not been even that reliable. He's given up 13 earned runs in his last two starts there and 19 earned runs in his last 19 innings pitched there. Especially against heavier hitting teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Houston has Harden struggled against. He's given up at least one home run in 11 of his 13 starts and has given up two home runs in 3 of his last 5.

Overall I'd say one would have to favor Carpenter and the Red Birds in this matchup. The Cubs have a lot of good batters who just haven't been performing too well this season, and they could potentially score some big hits off of Carpenter. If the Cardinals are unable to generate runs in support of Carpenter then of course Chicago is going to have a chance to win. I think St. Louis' bullpen is more likely to secure a win for their starter however, and I think the Cubs are more likely to be playing from behind once the bullpens come into play. Keep in mind, Carpenter has had more than 3 runs of support in a game only once this season.

St. Patrick's Athletic have struggled at Richmond Park all season, but not as badly as Galway United have struggled away recently.

4) Galway United visit Richmond Park in Inchicore in an attempt to take a third straight victory from St. Patrick's Athletic this season. They defeated St. Patrick's 3-0 at Richmond Park in the first game of the season as Saints coach Jeff Kenna inserted seven off-season signings into the starting lineup. They picked up a second win against Saints at home 2-1, giving up a goal on a penalty and scoring twice from free kicks around the box.

Looking at the tables shows St. Patrick's have been a bit better side this season, but are one of the lesser teams at home (7^th) while Galway are one of the lesser teams (8^th) on the road. Galway United have struggled away recently losing their last three matches by a combined score of 5-0. St. Patrick's have actually improved at home despite winning only one of their past three matches, a 3-1 win against Bohemians FC, one of the stronger sides in the Irish Premier. Personally, I feel St. Patrick's should be much higher in the tables than they are, that they have the talent for that. They are a much different team than they were from last season, however, and they have yet to gel more than half-way through to the final match. If they have yet to find the consistency, discipline, and team spirit to win 18 matches in then they may be faced with the prospect that they do not have the right group of players.

Home/Away Results For Saints/Galway
St. Patrick's	Galway Utd.
Shamrock Rovers (1:2)	Shamrock Rovers (0:1)
Bohemian FC (3:1)	Bohemian FC (0:2)
Bray Wanderers (1:1)	Sligo Rovers (0:2)

There are some fairly large injury concerns for both sides. Galway United will most likely be missing Derek O'Brien(M) who is recovering from a hamstring injury. O'Brien scored a brace in the 3-0 away win at St. Patrick's earlier this season. Galway will be bolstered, however, by the return of Dave Cooke(M), Sean Kelly(M), Alan Murphy(M), and possibly Shane Fitzgerald(M). St. Patrick's will be without Mark Quigley(F, jaw), Gints Friemanis(M, hand), Mark Leech(F, leg) and Gary Dempsey(M, leg), but should see the return of Damian Lynch(D) and John Lester(M). Overall the injuries facing St. Patrick's are more critical to their success. Still, both of these sides play an open style of play, are susceptible to counter attacks, and are capable of scoring from set pieces. I think Galway United's defense is more disciplined as they have been playing together for a longer period of time so I would give them the advantage here to at least draw in a low scoring game. St. Patrick's have the talent to defeat any team in the league, however, so I can't say they don't have a chance to win outright.