July 2nd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-3-0 today and I dipped back below .500 pretty severely. Well, here's to a full two weeks above the red line. I started the day with a loss picking against Federer who looks like he'll take the title in this tournament.. I'm guessing we see a total games prop for the men's final? Pure nuttery. Then won with the Nationals total hits, then lost with Kansas City and their ability to hit into double plays, won with the Braves and finally lost with the Stampeders who were unable to intercept a gimme with the score tied and threw an interception on the comeback drive. Thanks for the shout out from TheStreakMaster.com, also. Prop bets and MLB props especially seem to be my most successful category. So on to the confounded picks.

Recaps

Federer Through Playing Games, Easily Breaks Karlovic For Place In Semifinals

R. Federer def. I. Karlovic 6-3 7-5 7-6 (7-3)

Roger Federer looked scary good against Karlovic. From the way Murray, Haas, and Roddick have been playing it's hard to see where they have a chance of stopping Federer from making history.

``Roger Federer is in such confident form at the 2009 Championships that even staring down the barrel of a gun does not faze him. Required to reduce Ivo Karlovic, the game's most potent hitter, to firing blanks was a task taken in his stride as Wimbledon's five-time champion cruised into the semi-finals with a 6-3, 7-5, 7-6 (7-3) victory in an hour and 43 minutes. It was Federer who proved supreme when it came to serving. He conceded a mere 11 points in the whole match, never faced a break point and was only once threatened by having his delivery taken to deuce. By then it was midway through the third set and the outcome was long beyond conjecture. Even so, Karlovic managed to keep the second set wide open until the 11th game, when another supreme backhand service return winner took Federer to break point, at which Karlovic obliged with a low forehand volley into the net."

Read more... Plus HighlightsMatch StatsFederer Post-Match InterviewKarlovic Post-Match Interview

Marlins' Johnson Exits After 10 Outs But Florida Comes Out On Top Anyways

Florida Marlins 5 - 3 Washington Nationals (Josh Johnson 3.1 IP, 5 H, 3 K)

Somehow, I only gave up one run. I don't like it, but I'll take it.
---Florida Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson

``Florida starter Josh Johnson failed to get out of the fourth inning, his shortest appearance in 34 starts dating to June 23, 2007. Johnson yielded one run and five hits in 3 1/3 innings, with four walks and three strikeouts, and only 49 of his 89 pitches went for strikes. Most oddly, Johnson couldn't get Washington's starter out. Jordan Zimmermann had the first two hits of his career for Washington -- the rookie was hitless in 19 at-bats coming in -- and drove in the Nationals' first run with a second-inning single off Johnson. Zimmermann allowed two runs and six hits in six innings."

Read more....Box ScorePlay-By-Play

Kansas City Outhits Minnesota But Inning Ending Double Plays Spell Doom

Minnesota Twins 5 - 1 Kansas City Royals

Kansas City ended three innings by hitting into double plays, twice with men in scoring position.

``Michael Cuddyer homered leading off the second against Meche, who has surrendered six home runs in his last three starts after allowing only one his first 11. With two on and two outs in the third, Joe Crede hit a routine grounder to second baseman Alberto Callaspo, who let it scoot under his glove for his ninth error as Mauer scored. The Twins added two in the eighth after reliever Robinson Tejada had struck out the first two batters. Denard Span and Matt Tolbert singled, and Mauer was walked intentionally. John Bale relieved and forced in runs with bases-loaded walks to Brian Buscher and Cuddyer."

Read more....Box Score

Jurrjens Takes No-Hitter Into 7th, Braves Deliver With Six Run 5^th

Atlanta Braves 11 - 1 Philadelphia Phillies

Jair Jurrjens was phenomenal and Cole Hamels continued his struggles this season.

``Jurrjens (6-6) began the night with the seventh-lowest run support in the majors, including only five runs in his last four losses. That lack of support ended as the Braves scored seven runs off Cole Hamels (4-5), who left the game after giving up three hits and a walk in the fifth. Jurrjens' bid to become the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter against the Phillies since the Cardinals' Bob Forsch on April 16, 1978, ended with Paul Bako's single with two outs in the seventh. The Braves have won three straight. They are still three games under .500 but trail the first-place Phillies by only three games in the NL East."

Read more....Box Score

Anthony Calvillo And Als Get Revenge By Taking Advantage Of Stampeder Blunders

Montreal Alouettes 40 - 27 Calgary Stampeders

A 17-0 first quarter deficit was not too much to make up for Calgary, but it required some clutch play at the end which they could not muster.

``Avon Cobourne, Kerry Watkins and Chip Cox scored touchdowns for the Als, who were 0-3 versus Calgary last season including the loss in the Grey Cup. Calgary recovered from a horrendous opening quarter to put pressure on Montreal and tie the game at 27-27, but costly turnovers late in the fourth quarter helped end the Stamps' winning streak against the Als. Burris threw the ball into the arms of Montreal's Mark Estelle in the end zone with six minutes remaining. The Calgary pivot then coughed up the ball under pressure from Montreal's Anwar Stewart and Keron Williams and linebacker Chip Williams rumbled 81 yards for a touchdown at 12:45."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) How Many Games Will Be Played Between Serena Williams And Elena Dementieva: 18 or fewer vs. 19 or more - 19 or more
2) Sean O'Hair vs. K.J. Choi - Choi cards the same or lower front 9 score
3) Dinara Safina vs. Venus Williams - Venus Williams wins 2-0
4) FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk @ FK Sutjeska - FK Sutjeska win
5) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds - Arizona
6) Tiger Woods' Front 9 Score: 34 or lower vs. 35 or higher - 34 or lower
7) FC Zestafoni @ Lisburn Distillery - FC Zestafoni win or draw
8) How Many Runs, Hits, and Errors Will There Be (Astros @ Padres): 26 or fewer vs. 27 or more - 27 or more
9) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
10) San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - San Francisco
11) Detroit Shock @ New York Liberty - New York
12) Ryan Braun and Dave Cameron vs. Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano - Lee and Soriano record more total bases
13) Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
14) Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
15) Which Team Will Hit The First HR: Baltimore 1^st or none vs. Los Angeles 1^st - Los Angeles 1^st

Previews

Elena Dementieva and Serena Williams have battled one another over the years, each winning easily and each winning marathon matches. They're both playing at a high level at the moment. Can one really dominate the other?

1) Serena Williams and Elena Dementieva will clash for the third time this in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. The two split their first two meetings, both on hard courts, with Williams winning at the Australian Open 6-3 6-4 and Dementieva winning in Sydney 6-3 6-1. Overall Williams has won 5 of 8 matches against Dementieva since 2003 and of those 8 matches 5 have taken 19 games or more to decide a winner.

Williams v. Dementieva
Year	Surface	Winner	Games
2003	grass	Williams	18
2004	hard	Williams	22
2004	hard	Williams	14
2004	hard	Williams	25
2007	carpet	Dementieva	26
2008	hard	Dementieva	28
2009	hard	Dementieva	16
2009	hard	Williams	19

Both Williams and Dementieva are playing very well at the moment with neither player has lost a set up until this point. Williams has dropped 7 games in a match at most, in the first and third rounds to #154 Neuza Silva and to #53 Roberta Vinci while Dementieva has not dropped more than 5 games in a match. For 19 games to be played both Williams and Dementieva must win at least 7 games and there cannot be an early retirement. I think, given how well they have been playing, it would be a stretch to assume one or the other could take 12 games out of 18.

Keep Up With The Match Score At Wimbledon.Org

Venus Williams has been closed mouthed about the leg brace she has worn throughout Wimbledon. It's a preventative measure for a nagging injury, but she hasn't played as if she were injured in the slightest.

3) Dinara Safina may be ranked #1 in the world, but with five Wimbledon titles to her credit Venus Williams will be the outright favorite to win quickly when she takes the court in the quarterfinals today. Wimbledon has put up a preview of the match in which they paint a fairly bleak picture for Safina. Not only does Venus have several more Grand Slam wins and more experience in these big name tournaments but she's also been more dominant statistically in reaching the quarterfinals. Williams is putting more of her serves in play, recording more aces, fewer double faults, winning more of her first serve points and more of her return points. It's not that Safina has been unable to play with Venus in the past, she is #1 for a reason after all. This will be their fourth matchup all-time with Venus taking two in 2008 and Safina winning one earlier this year on the clay courts at Rome. I think Dinara Safina has been nervous as she's gone further into uncharted territory at Wimbledon. She's been able to control those nerves well enough to advance, but on the big stage against Venus Williams it would not be a surprise to see her struggle with her serve once again. On top of that I imagine Venus remembers vividly losing in three sets to Safina at Rome and will be focused on not letting it happen again. Venus' leg brace could be a cause for concern as any potential injury she's playing through would only get worse as she progressed through the tournament, but she's given no indication it's a bother at all. I think Safina may be able to break Venus' serve, but the reverse is at least as likely. In a tiebreak situation Venus' experience and overall stronger play under pressure should see her through to win the set.

FK Sutjeska - #3 in Prva Crnogorska Liga last season; (home) 14-2-1 28GS:8GA

FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk - #9 in Cempionat; (away) 2-1-3 7GS:12GA

4) Today marks the start of the UEFA's new and improved Cup tournament now under the guise of the Europa League. The first qualifying round takes some of the top teams from the bottom order European domestic leagues and has them play two-leg knockout ties to determine who will join the upper tier clubs in the group stage.

FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk started in 1948 as the sports section of the Minsk Tractor Plant and merged with the Republican Institute for Vocational Eduction (RIPO) in 2002. They play in the Cempionat, the top-flight Belarussian league, and booked a place in the Europa League with their third place finish in the last season which ended on November 16^th. They are 11 matches into the current season and currently lie in ninth place with a 4-2-5 record. Away from home they have been one of the better performers of the Cempionat, but are still only 2-1-3 with 7 goals scored and 12 goals conceded.

I never expected we'd get this far. My only wish was to have a peaceful season, without fear of relegation. Now the players must cope with another kind of pressure. I am looking forward to see how they respond.
---FK Sutjeska coach Nikola Rakojević

FK Sutjeska play in the Prva Crnogorska Liga, the top-flight league in Montenegro. Their season just wrapped up on May 30^th with FK Sutjeska finishing third, capping what was something of a Cinderella season. The '07/'08 season had them fighting off relegation so they were not expected to do much in '08/'09. Part of the reason was their standing from the year before, but also because of the extreme youth of their team, which had only three players over the age of 25 at the start of last season. They built much of their success around strong home match play, with 14 of their 19 victories coming at Stadion Gradski Nikšića. They were 14-2-1 there with 28 goals scored and 8 goals conceded.

Both of these teams are probably long shots to make it to the group stage and while MTZ-RIPO are from a stronger domestic league they are simply not terribly strong away from home. I think playing away from not only their home pitch but also their home nation will be a major factor in this match and FK Sutjeska will be able to take a 2-0 lead into the second leg of the tie.

Lisburn Distillery was 4th last season in the Northern Ireland Premiership; (home) 7-3-6 26GS:19GA

FC Zestafoni - 4th in the Umaglesi Liga; (away) 6-4-5 15GS:13GA

7) This first round qualifier for the Europa League pits two teams who finished in fourth place last season in their respective leagues. Both leagues are currently in their off-seasons and so I would expect each side to be more or less at full strength with their last competitive matches having been played in March for Lisburn Distillery and in May for FC Zestafoni. Looking at Lisburn's home record one sees they were the seventh best home side, with a 7-3-6 record and +7 goal differential. Not a very impressive home record in my opinion, especially considering Northern Ireland's Association football is ranked 46^th of 53. FC Zestafoni play in the Umaglesi Liga in Georgia which is ranked 38^th in Europe. A look at their away record shows FC Zestafoni were one of the better away sides in their league (5^th) with a 6-4-5 record and +2 goal differential. I think FC Zestafoni are a stronger side playing in a stronger league and I think they will win the match outright. SkyBet and BetFair have Zestafoni as slight favorites or even odds to win and adding on the odds for a draw makes this pick a very heavy favorite (about 64% or -200).

Click image for larger version. Houston/San Diego hits, runs, and errors over the past two weeks. Use the zoom tool to get a better view.

8) The Houston Astros and San Diego Padres are averaging a combined 5.45 runs, 12.67 hits, and 0.33 errors per game in their series, for a grand total of 18.45 hits, runs, and errors per game in this series. The greatest total in the series was in the second game where the teams combined for 22 hits, runs, and errors. The chart above shows the runs, hits, and errors for each team in their last 15 games. From the table or the graph one can see that these teams put up their share of 26 to 27 total (13 or more) in about half of their games. On average the Astros record 13.29 runs, hits, and errors and the Padres contribute 12.52 which would favor the 26 or fewer pick with 25.81 total. Their opponents, however, average a combined 28.23 runs, hits, and errors. This prop isn't really about averages though, it's about how well the starting pitchers and bullpen can limit the opponents' ability to hit the ball and score runs.

2009 Pitching Stats
	Rodriguez	Correia
H/6	5.70	5.16
R/6	2.67	2.82
	HOU Bullpen	SD Bullpen
H/3	3.00	2.94
ER/3	1.33	1.31
Totals
	Houston	San Diego
H w/Pitcher	8.70	8.10
Opp. R Season	4.45	4.95
Errors/Gm	0.51	0.48
Totals	13.66	13.53

The table to the left suggests 27.19 runs, hits, and errors will be recorded in this game which does not leave much room for error, but does suggest 27 or more should be slightly favored. Considering none of the games in the series have gone for more than 22 runs, hits, and errors and only one error has been committed by the two teams combined I would say this will most likely end up with 24 to 26 total, but could easily go well over if either pitcher has a poor start. 26 or fewer is the riskier pick in my opinion so I'll switch to 27 or more.

The Angels' John Lackey gives up far fewer home runs (1.01 HR/9) than his coutnerpart, Jeremy Guthrie (1.67 HR/9)

15) Let me start by saying I have a sneaking suspicion the Orioles are going to come away as victors in this game. As for this `Who will hit the first home run' prop I am fairly confident the Angels will win. Jeremy Guthrie is the starting pitcher for Baltimore. Of the pitches Guthrie throws which are put into play 44.3% are fly balls this season and 12.5% of those end up being home runs. 86.7% of Guthrie's pitches that are swung at contact is made so essentially batters have needed only swing at 20 of his pitches to get a home run this season. The picture for John Lackey is not quite as bleak. When the ball is put into play off of one of his pitches it is a flyball 35.6% of the time and of those fly balls only 9.4% go the distance. Contact is made with only 79.2% of his pitches swung at so that on average batters must swing at 38 of his pitches to hit a home run. Overall Guthrie gives up 1.67 home runs per 9 innings pitched while Lackey is giving up 1.01 per 9 this season.

July 1st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-2-0 today as I learned a valuable lesson. Taking the home team in the WNBA is not always a good substitute for a random MLB pick. My WNBA record moved to 2-1-0 today with the Atlanta Dream losing. They won 4 games total last season. They're still looking for win #5 this season. Another day over .500 making this my best run of luck at this game thus far. I lost with Safina, then won with Serena, then lost with Atlanta, and won with... 3 runs or fewa'. And now on to the picks.

Recaps

Dinara Safina Overcomes Early Match Jitters To Book Her Place In The Final Four

D. Safina def. S. Lisicki 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-1

Dinara Safina had 7 double faults in the first set alone. Fortunately Lisicki wasn't flawless on the court herself.

``Safina was to be less fortunate in her second service game. Two double faults presented her opponent with a pair of break points which the Russian promptly saved, but when a third one came, disaster struck. A point had to be replayed after a call was overruled, which meant that Dinara had to go through the chore of serving all over again. A third double-fault later and Lisicki was in the driving seat. At 5-3, all [Lisicki] had to do was serve out for the set, but it was as if she suddenly realised that the pressure was now on her. Safina needed no second bidding, breaking back to 15 then holding her nerve to level at 5-5. The best chance for the six-foot Muscovite to take the set was via another break, but Lisicki got her stroke-making back and the scoreboard announced 6-6. Lisicki soon had three set points [in the tiebreak] only to wobble again, putting an easy volley wide on the second one with the court at her mercy. She challenged the call, and while she may or may not have believed that the ball had clipped the line, it gave Safina an extra 30 seconds to wait before serving. By default or design on Lisicki’s part, it was a masterstroke – Safina double-faulted, as she had done on match point in the final of the French, and handed the set to the teenager."

Read more... Plus HighlightsMatch StatsSafina Post-Match InterviewLisicki Post-Match Interview

Serena Wows, Overpowers Azarenka For Semis Spot

S. Williams def. V. Azarenka 6-2 6-3 (17 games total)

Serena Williams said she felt she could up her intensity yesterday. She can. She feels she'll need to take it up another notch to win this thing they call Wimbledon.

``It was the power and intensity of [Serena's] game that was so stunning, and never mind that once again she was playing with both ankles heavily taped. Azarenka is rarely overawed by anything, and she herself was having a fine time hammering away from the baseline. But such was Serena’s aggression that the Belarusian simply could not stay with her. Serena’s play was littered with dazzling touches – a lovely running crosscourt forehand here, a 120mph serve there. [In the second set] Williams saved one break point with a smash that only just crept over the net. Serena sent a forehand long for another opportunity, but then delivered three aces in a row to rescue the game. At 2-2 Azarenka broke the Williams serve with an excellent return. But in the next game she gave away a string of break points with horrible mistakes, and on the third break point she made another error to put the set back on serve. By now she was leaking errors and Serena forced the conclusive breakthrough for 5-3, before serving out to love to secure her place in the last four."

Read more... Plus HighlightsMatch StatsS. Williams Post-Match InterviewAzarenka Post-Match Interview

Lynx Less Augustus Deny Dream Club Record Fifth Win

Minnesota Lynx 91 - 85 Atlanta Dream

Even the box score is unavailable on this one.

``Candice Wiggins has picked up her production since the Minnesota Lynx lost Seimone Augustus for the season. Wiggins scored 23 points and Nicky Anosike had 20 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Lynx to a 91-85 win over the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday night. Charde Houston added 18 points for Minnesota (7-3), which made 13 3-pointers to win their third straight. Roneeka Hodges had 15 points on 5-for-7 shooting from beyond the arc. Iziane Castro Marques scored a career-high 31 points for the Dream (4-6), who remained one victory from eclipsing last season's total. Chamique Holdsclaw finished with 14 points, shooting 6 for 17 from the floor."

Read more....

Marquis Challenges Billingsley To A Right Old Pitchers' Duel

Colorado Rockies 3 - 0 Los Angeles Dodgers (Rockies 1 - 0 Dodgers after 4^th)

Jason Marquis was absolutely dominating, needing only 86 pitches to completely shut out the Dodgers. He also batted in two runs off of Billingsley to really drive home who was the better of the two tonight. ``Marquis delivered a two-run single at the plate and outpitched Chad Billingsley in a matchup of potential All-Stars. Brad Hawpe homered for the resurgent Rockies, who set a franchise record for wins in a month with 21. The Rockies' 30-year-old right-hander did not issue a walk and retired 19 consecutive batters between James Loney's one-out single in the second and Juan Castro's two-out single in the eighth. Marquis (10-5) tied Kevin Slowey, Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay and Tim Wakefield for the major league lead in wins, facing one batter more than the minimum and throwing just 86 pitches in his third career shutout." Read more....Box Score

Pitching Stats Through 4th Inning
	Billingsley	Marquis
PIP	14.0	10.8
%Strikes	64%	70%
Hits	2	1
Walks	1	0
PIP - pitches per inning pitched

Play-By-Play

Picks
1) What Will Be The Result Between Ivo Karlovic and Roger Federer: Federer Wins 3-0 vs. Any Other Result - Any other result
2) How Many Sets Will Be Played Between Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick: 4 sets vs. 3 or 5 sets - 4 sets
3) Washington Nationals hits off Johnson vs. Josh Johnson strikeouts - Nationals hits off Johnson
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays - Tampa Bay
5) IK Start @ Lillestrøm SK - Lillestrøm SK win
6) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
8) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians - Chicago
9) San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - San Francisco
10) Corinthians SP @ Internacional RS - Internacional RS win
11) Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
12) Montreal Alouettes @ Calgary Stampeders - Calgary

Previews

(top) Josh Johnson strikeouts/hits given up; (bottom) Nationals hits off starter/struck out. Nolasco, Bergesen, Cueto, and Cain are the only pitchers to win this prop this month. Johnson has won this prop in 7 of 16 starts, including once against Washington. Click on graph for large version.

3) Well, the graph on the right will do most of the talking here. Josh Johnson has given up fewer hits than struck out batters in 7 of his 16 starts, including once against Washington. He has been on the losing end of this proposition in only 6 of those 16 starts.

Washington, despite being in the bottom half of the Majors in strikeouts per at bat this month, have only been struck out more by the starting pitcher four times. Nolasco, Bergesen, Cain, and Cueto were the culprits. If those guys can do it then certainly Josh Johnson is capable of it. Keep in mind, however, that Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, and Matt Garza are some of the pitchers who could not get more strikeouts. Josh Johnson is striking out batters at a .210 rate and his bat against average is .227 so it should be a close one as his two previous meetings with Washington have been.


5) IK Start appear to be the stronger side this season in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. They have only lost twice on the road despite their -4 goal differential while Lillestrøm SK have only won twice at home even though they have an even goal differential. If you click on the form table, however, you'll see both of Lillestrøm SK's wins at home have been in their most recent home matches while IK Start's away losses have been in their most recent three matches.

From what I could tell there were no incredibly serious injury concerns for either team. You can click on the logos to the left and try your hand at translating Norwegian. The root for injury or hurt is skade, skadet, skader. Aside from the better recent form Lillestrøm SK have a long and rich tradition of beating IK Start at home. The last time they did not win outright was in 1994 with 7 straight victories in the meantime. I think that tradition and that they may be a better team by season's end may be enough to see them come away from this match with the full three points.

June 30th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-1-0 again today. Had a four game streak and then I got greedy and put it all on the Mets. Why? I cannot say. Will I do it again? You cannot know. Well, OK, yea I probably will though stopping at 2 right per day seems like a good strategy. I'll be going for 6 consecutive days over .500 here. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Karlovic Remains Unbeatable On Serve, Downs Verdasco With 35 Aces

I. Karlovic def. F. Verdasco 7-6 (7-5) 6-7 (4-7) 6-3 7-6 (11-9)

Verdasco never had a break point opportunity as Karlovic won 94% of his first serves.

``The pattern of aces and very few rallies - in which the tiebreaks became all-important - would not have been to the taste of some spectators. It was the giant Croat who had the best of those tiebreaks and he prevailed 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (4-6), 6-4, 7-6 (10-8) in three hours and one minute. With the match locked at 3-3 in the third set, play was suspended to the rain. Resuming just half an hour later, it appeared the first delay of the tournament had sparked Karlovic into action, as he raced to 0-40 on Verdasco’s serve. The Spaniard sent down two thumping serves to peg the score back to 30-40. However Karlovic finally gained the first and only break in the entire match when his 25-year-old opponent pushed a backhand into the net. As if it was ever in doubt, the world No.36 duly served out the set. The fourth set saw a return to the previous pattern and it ended in a tiebreak. When a double fault by Verdacso handed Karlovic a mini-break to lead 3-1, the small gathering of Croatian fans were already celebrating victory. But a terrier-like Verdasco fought back, with a brilliant return helping to level it 3-3. Both players then had opportunities to win the tiebreak. Verdasco had a set point at 8-7 on his own serve but Karlovic took a gamble and ripped a thunderous return winner onto the baseline. Then Karlovic rose and seized the moment at 9-8, sealing a place in the last eight when Verdasco pushed a backhand long"

Read more....Match StatsKarlovic Post-Match Interview

Roddick Moves Into Quarterfinals With A Roar

A. Roddick def. T. Berdych 7-6 (7-4) 6-4 6-3

Roddick was the only Andy looking like they might have a chance in the finals today.

``Roddick turned Berdych’s form upside down in his win. Berdych had come into the last 16 without dropping a set, something he had not achieved in a Grand Slam since 2007. This showed that he was finding his feet again on grass and he might even have fancied his chances of making the quarter-finals. Roddick blew all that away with a strong and accurate hitting performance. Roddick’s victory owed much to the power of his serving. He served 24 aces during the match and did not offer a single break point. Berdych challenged him strongly, as Roddick had anticipated, in the first set in particular but once the American had wrapped that up, the pattern was established. Berdych simply could not come close enough to Roddick for long enough to do any real damage."

Read more....Match StatsRoddick Post-Match Interview

McGehee Gaffe Lets Mets Back In, Grand Slam Boots Them Right Back Out

Milwaukee Brewers 10 - 6 New York Mets

Fernando Nieve gave up 3 runs from 11 hits in 3¹/₃ innings. Maybe Jerry Manuel should have left him in.

``McGehee nearly gave New York a way out after giving the Mets life with starter Braden Looper (6-4) cruising and Milwaukee leading 3-0. With two outs and a man on first in the sixth inning, the Brewers third baseman dropped Fernando Martinez's routine fly ball when it hit the heel of his glove and dropped harmlessly to the ground, putting runners on the corners. Brian Schneider hit the next pitch off the wall for a two-run double to cut it to 3-2, but Looper got out of the jam. In the bottom of the inning, Hardy had his third extra base hit when Martinez tried to make a diving catch on a liner to put men on second and third with one out. After Ryan Braun popped out and Prince Fielder was intentionally walked, McGehee drove a high fastball from reliever Brian Stokes into the Brewers bullpen in left center field to make it 7-2."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Dinara Safina vs. Sabine Lisicki - Safina wins 2-0
2) How Many Games Will Be Played Between Victoria Azarenka vs. Serena Williams - 19 games or fewer
3) AC Omonia Nicosia @ Grasshoppers Zürich - Grasshoppers Zürich win
4) WSOP $50,000 HORSE Event: Will The Winner Be A Bracelet Winner, Yes vs. No - Yes
5) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
6) Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream - Atlanta
7) Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays - Tampa Bay
9) How Many Pitches Will Johan Santana Throw: 104 or fewer vs. 105 or more - 105 or more
10) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers - Los Angeles
11) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
12) Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
13) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5^th Inning: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 3 or fewer

Previews

Johan Santana has a complete game in him. It took half the season (7/4/08) to see the first of four. We're nearing half way through this season.

9) So far this season Johan Santana has thrown 105 or more pitches in only one-third of his 15 starts. He may have been ailing after the 120 pitch game against Washington in which he walked 6 batters, four in one inning. He's had a series of low pitch count starts which is not in line with how he was used last season when he threw at least 105 pitches in 21 of his 35 starts in 2008. He has yet to pitch 8 or more innings so far this season. It took Santana until July 4^th to pitch a full 8 innings, and after that he did it 5 more times, including three complete games. I think the umpire for the day will also play an important role as the single biggest factor adding pitches to a count, aside from foul balls, will be balls and walks. The potential home plate umpires for tonight's game are Cederstrom, O'Nora, and Wolf. One can see their statistics here, through the end of May. Pitchers average nearly twice as many walks with Cederstrom at home plate than with O'Nora and Wolf. One can check the game preview an hour before first pitch to see where the umpires will be. If Cederstrom is umping I would definitely go 105 or more. If O'Nora and Wolf are at home plate I would hesitate, but I think Santana may go for a full 8 innings this game with the bullpen having pitched 15²/₃ innings since his last start. Of course, Feliciano, Rodriguez, and Troncoso rested yesterday so there is no real need for Santana to pitch deep into the game.

13) Jason Marquis and Chad Billingsley have started 15 and 16 games this season, respectively. The scoring has totaled 4 or more runs in 7 of Marquis' games and 8 of Billingsley's games, or about 50% of the time. The graph below sums up whether it was Marquis or Billingsley giving up the runs or their own team scoring the runs. One can see that most of the time when the score went over 3 runs it was due to the Rockies or the Dodgers scoring. Marquis has had some awful games, but Billingsley has very rarely given up more than 2 runs in the first four innings (twice in 16 starts). I do think if there is a pair of pitchers who can keep the scoring down to start the game it is these pitchers. One should note, however, that the total runs scored was 4 or more in both pitchers' previous start against the opposition but that both times it was the `other' pitcher (not Marquis or Billingsley) who gave up all of the runs in those games.

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June 29th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-1-0 today as David Huff followed a gem against Pittsburgh with a straight up bad start against the Reds. Owings was solid for Cincy too. Then got my streak back up to two with a couple of WNBA picks. Go home team! So on to the raccafracas picks.

Recaps

Micah Owings Finds His Groove As Phillips, Reds, Knock Around The Tribe

Cincinnati Reds 8 - 1 Cleveland Indians

Owings got bombed and Huff threw a gem their last times out so of course Huff is the poor pitcher who gets bombed and Owings is the unhittable one today. Should have seen that one coming a mile away.

``Micah Owings (5-8) gave up one run and five hits over six innings for only his second win in eight starts since May 21. Brandon Phillips broke out of a 1-for-16 slump with three hits, three runs and three RBIs as the Reds took two of three from their Ohio rivals to move back to .500 overall. Phillips had a two-run single in a four-run third inning off David Huff (3-3). He had an RBI single and scored on Jonny Gomes' homer in the fifth, then singled, stole second and scored on a single by Hernandez against Rafael Perez in the seventh. Ramon Hernandez also had three hits and three RBIs for Cincinnati. The Indians had two runners on base against Owings in the third, fourth and sixth and could not deliver. The Indians dropped further into last place in the AL Central with their 10th loss in 12 games."

Read more....Box Score

Shock Rock Monarchs Early To Give Mahorn First `W' As Coach

Detroit Shock 86 - 72 Sacramento Monarchs

Apparently Bill Laimbeer was sick of coaching a losing WNBA team so they got Rick Mahorn to coach.

``Shavonte Zellous scored 18 points to lead the Detroit Shock to an 86-72 victory over the Sacramento Monarchs on Sunday night, giving Rick Mahorn his first win as a head coach. Detroit took control by outscoring the Monarchs 23-11 in the second quarter to take a 47-28 halftime lead. The Shock outshot Sacramento 46 percent to 21 percent in the period and had an 11-2 edge from the free-throw line. The Monarchs pulled to 66-60 with 7:24 left, but Detroit scored the next four points and cruised to the win."

Read more....Box Score

Los Angeles Defense Sparks Route Over Storm

Los Angeles Sparks 82 - 55 Seattle Storm

Los Angeles kicked Seattle's ass after losing in Seattle a couple of days ago.

``Playing their third game without injured three-time league MVP Lisa Leslie, five players scored in double figures for Sparks (3-5). Betty Lennox had 14 points, Vanessa Hayden scored 12, DeLisha Milton-Jones 11 and Noelle Quinn 10 for the Sparks. Shannon Bobbitt had a season-high eight assists. The Sparks used an aggressive defensive effort and outhustled the Storm in the second quarter to take a 41-30 halftime lead. [Los Angeles] made a season-high 19 free throws and had a season-high 23 assists. They held the Storm to a season low in points and forced them to commit a season-high 22 turnovers."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Fernando Verdasco vs. Ivo Karlovic - Karlovic
2) Dinara Safina vs. Amelie Mauresmo - Mauresmo
3) Juan Carlos Ferrero vs. Gilles Simon - Ferrero
4) Tomas Berdych vs. Andy Roddick - Roddick
5) England (U21) vs. Germany (U21) - Germany
6) New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers - New York
7) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians - Chicago
8) San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
9) Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics - Detroit

Previews

Ivo Karlovic (bottom) has yet to lose a service game on grass this year and leads the Tour in aces. Fernando Verdasco (top) hopes to avenge a loss at Nottingham last year to Karlovic.

1) Ivo Karlovic faces #8 Fernando Verdasco in the fourth round at Wimbledon. Both players are seeking a place in the quarterfinals here at SW19 for the first time in their careers. Verdasco has had a good run of quarterfinal appearances in tournaments this year and has shot up in the rankings to be rated one of the top 10 players in the world coming into Wimbledon. He should face a stern challenge from the 6'10" Croatian Karlovic who leads the ATP Tour this year in aces by a wide margin. Karlovic has been sensational on grass this year as well. He has already served over 100 aces and has not had his serve broken once at Wimbledon. In fact, he has held service 100% of the time on grass courts this year. It is for these reasons he is being billed as `The Man No One Wants To Face'.

Verdasco is one of those who wishes he might have avoided Karlovic in the draw. Verdasco is 1-2 against Karlovic in their careers, including a hard fought loss to him last year on the grass courts at Nottingham. Looking at their stats from this year it is clear that Karlovic dominates on service but that if there is a man to break the Croat it might be Verdasco. Verdasco has converted 44% of his break point opportunities and has won 42% of his receiving points.

Both players have done well so far with neither dropping more than one set in any single match in the first three rounds. Looking at their profiles and playing activity one can see Karlovic has done a bit better on grass this season with a quarterfinals appearance at Queen's Club before losing to Andy Roddick. Verdasco has lost twice on grass this year and both times to opponents ranked lower than Karlovic. He's looked good in this tournament so far, however, and I have a sneaking suspicion he may break Karlovic's serve early and win easily as the match unravels from there. If Karlovic can continue to hold service like he has, however, he should be able to win the match with one or two break points.

Dinara Safina (left) is the #1 player in the world but has yet to win a Grand Slam. Will an in-form Amelie Mauresmo (right) extend her wait another few months?

2) World #1 Dinara Safina has made it into the second week of Wimbledon for the first time in her career having bowed out in the third round or earlier for the past six years. Her opponent today will be Amelie Mauresmo, currently ranked #17 and winner of Wimbledon in 2006. Mauresmo has been this far at Wimbledon four times in the past, with two semifinal appearances to go along with her champion effort in '06. Dinara Safina has played well so far having yet to drop a set or been forced in to a tie break situation. Mauresmo struggled a bit in the first round, but from there has been nearly as good as her top seeded counterpart.

One aspect where Safina has done better is in her first serve percentage and double faults. Mauresmo has double faulted on 20 of 209 of her serves (9.6%) while Safina has only failed to bring the ball into play on 11 of 197 serves (5.6%). Mauresmo does have a slightly more powerful serve than Safina, however, and has recorded 25 aces in the tournament to 11 for Safina. Head to head Mauresmo holds the advantage having won 4 matches and lost 2 over the years with Safina taking their most recent encounter in 2008 on the hard courts in Moscow. On grass courts this year Mauresmo defeated #7 Vera Zvonareva at Eastbourne prior to this event and Safina made a run through a series of top 75 ranked opponents at 'S-Hertogenbosch before losing to #47 Tamarine Tanasugarn.

Well, I think I played pretty good match. I was really ‑‑ a little bit I got tight in the first set because it was a little bit close. Like she had set point in the first set. But once I had set behind, I think I played much better in the second set.
---Dinara Safina regarding her play in round 3

Dinara Safina is ranked #1 in the world for a reason and that reason is that wherever the tournament, on whatever surface, one finds her there amongst the last remaining. She is a very skilled player, but she has yet to win a Grand Slam title and has had problems in the past performing under pressure. In an interview after her third round match against Kirsten Flipkens Safina mentioned feeling the pressure and not having fun and playing well until she had taken the first set. I think Mauresmo is finding the form that saw her through to the semifinals three years in a row from 2004 to 2006 and if she can break Safina's serve early will be able to take advantage of Safina's stiff play. On the other hand, if Safina breaks Mauresmo early I think Mauresmo will remain calm and still have a chance to win.

England played Germany to a 1-1 draw with a drastically different side than the one that saw them through to the final. They'll have to make do without Joe Hart, Agbonlahor, and Frazier Campbell once again.

5) Germany and England are set to clash in Malmo for the UEFA Under-21 Championship. The two sides have met once already in this tournament in the Group stage with the result being a 1-1 draw. That match was played after England had secured their place in the semifinals and coach Stuart Pearce had made a number of changes to the Starting XI. Pearce will have to fiddle around with those eleven for this championship match as well with bookings in their semifinal against Sweden leading to the suspensions of Frazier Campbell, Gabriel Agbonlahor, and keeper Joe Hart for this match. England tried to appeal the booking of Hart for unsportsmanlike behavior during the penalty shootout with Sweden, but the appeal has been rejected. Pearce will not say whether Scott Loach or Joe Lewis will get the start against Germany, but either keeper would be a decent replacement. Germany will be without Ashkan Dejagah who is suspended, while Marko Marin may also miss due to the injury he sustained against Italy in the semifinals.

Success is not coming away as a gallant loser. We feel we have had no success yet. The only way we will deem to have success is if we win.
---Stuart Pearce, England U-21 head coach

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Title On The Line (preview)
Germany Believes
England U-21 Has Had The Upper Hand
Höwedes To Give All For Glory
Walcott Central To England's Tactics

UEFA.com features the best coverage of the match. Theo Walcott looks to feature in a central attack role with Campbell and Agbonlahor out. It is a position he was not entirely unfamiliar with, though Arsene Wenger did not generally place him in the lead strike position at Arsenal. England is the more talented team and even with Agbonlahor and Campbell out they still have extremely talented players like Micah Richards and James Milner available. I think the loss of Joe Hart in goal may prove to be a costly one, however, as he is much more capable of defending the net in a penalty shootout should the match come down to it. Additionally, Pearce is forced to move players out of position up front and while this is not always a detriment it can hamper efficiency and may well be the difference between a well played cross leading to a goal and a late cross being cleared out. As long as Germany can defend strongly on England's set pieces I think they will emerge victorious.

This final will be a completely open game. The English have a few suspended players, but we don't really care about that.
---Germany's Andreas Beck

England (probable, 4-1-4-1): Loach (Watford); Cranie (Portsmouth), Richards (Manchester City), Onouha (Manchester City), Gibbs (Arsenal); Muamba (Bolton); Milner (Aston Villa), Cattermole (Wigan), Noble (West Ham), Johnson (Middlesbrough); Walcott (Arsenal)

Germany (probable, 4-4-2): Neuer (Schalke); Beck (Hoffenheim), Howedes (Schalke), Boateng (Hamburg), Boenisch (Werder Bremen); Castro (Bayer Leverkusen), Khedira (Stuttgart), Aogo (Hamburg), Marin (Borussia Moenchengladbach); Wagner (Bayern Munich), Ozil (Werder Bremen)

8) You know, I really hate picking against Tim Lincecum. Not only is he an incredible pitcher but he's also got a certain likableness about him. When you see him walk to the dugout with a grizzled veterans arm about his shoulders you can't help but marvel that this kid is the best pitcher in his league. As for his skill as a pitcher consider he has two complete games in his last three starts and pitched for 8 innings in the third. Over those 26 innings he's given up 4 earned runs from a single homer, 22 hits, and 3 walks while striking out 29 batters. That's a 1.38 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP along with an incredible 9.7 K/BB ratio. Let those numbers sink in for a bit. .... .... .... .... OK, now consider that Lincecum has won all of his starts against the Cardinals and went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA against them last season.

Keep your eye on the ball Redbirds. Pujols, Duncan, Rasmus, Molina. These are just a few of the Cardinals who need to regain their form from last season.

That's not to say St. Louis has not been able to hit off of or score on Lincecum. Skip Schumaker, Albert Pujols, and Chris Duncan have all batted .333 or better off of Lincecum in their limited plate appearances against him.

The problem is they will need more than a few hits from a few spots in the order to score runs. One major contributor who has been MIA for a while this season is Khalil Greene. Greene is second on the team this month, behind Pujols, in home runs per fly ball, yet his batting average on balls in play is an atrocious .125, he's simply grounding out or fouling out when he bats the ball onto the field. Perhaps fortunatley for St. Louis Greene has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with social anxiety disorder. In his stead the Cardinals will need right handers Brian Barden, Mark DeRosa, and Albert Pujols to step up and send one or two out of the park as that will be the only reliable way to score runs against Lincecum who has yet to give up a home run to a right handed batter. After all, Lincecum has to give up a home run to a righty eventually.

Overall, I think the Cardinals have the offensive power to score 3 or 4 runs on Lincecum. If their lineup played as they did last year they would not be struggling to score, but this is this year and it may be a little too much to expect everyone to break out of a slump at once, and against The Freak. Brad Thompson is filling in for Kyle Lohse and this will be his last start. He's done well in the rotation and has been a solid contact pitcher with a stellar ground ball to fly ball ratio of over 2.50 as a starter. I think Thompson can keep St. Louis in the game, it's only a question of whether St. Louis can score at all. San Francisco has a fairly good bullpen with a 3.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP overall so if St. Louis struggles to get on base versus Lincecum I would expect them to struggle throughout the game. The Cardinals are a gut instinct pick, and that is all.