June 30th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-1-0 again today. Had a four game streak and then I got greedy and put it all on the Mets. Why? I cannot say. Will I do it again? You cannot know. Well, OK, yea I probably will though stopping at 2 right per day seems like a good strategy. I'll be going for 6 consecutive days over .500 here. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Karlovic Remains Unbeatable On Serve, Downs Verdasco With 35 Aces

I. Karlovic def. F. Verdasco 7-6 (7-5) 6-7 (4-7) 6-3 7-6 (11-9)

Verdasco never had a break point opportunity as Karlovic won 94% of his first serves.

``The pattern of aces and very few rallies - in which the tiebreaks became all-important - would not have been to the taste of some spectators. It was the giant Croat who had the best of those tiebreaks and he prevailed 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (4-6), 6-4, 7-6 (10-8) in three hours and one minute. With the match locked at 3-3 in the third set, play was suspended to the rain. Resuming just half an hour later, it appeared the first delay of the tournament had sparked Karlovic into action, as he raced to 0-40 on Verdasco’s serve. The Spaniard sent down two thumping serves to peg the score back to 30-40. However Karlovic finally gained the first and only break in the entire match when his 25-year-old opponent pushed a backhand into the net. As if it was ever in doubt, the world No.36 duly served out the set. The fourth set saw a return to the previous pattern and it ended in a tiebreak. When a double fault by Verdacso handed Karlovic a mini-break to lead 3-1, the small gathering of Croatian fans were already celebrating victory. But a terrier-like Verdasco fought back, with a brilliant return helping to level it 3-3. Both players then had opportunities to win the tiebreak. Verdasco had a set point at 8-7 on his own serve but Karlovic took a gamble and ripped a thunderous return winner onto the baseline. Then Karlovic rose and seized the moment at 9-8, sealing a place in the last eight when Verdasco pushed a backhand long"

Read more....Match StatsKarlovic Post-Match Interview

Roddick Moves Into Quarterfinals With A Roar

A. Roddick def. T. Berdych 7-6 (7-4) 6-4 6-3

Roddick was the only Andy looking like they might have a chance in the finals today.

``Roddick turned Berdych’s form upside down in his win. Berdych had come into the last 16 without dropping a set, something he had not achieved in a Grand Slam since 2007. This showed that he was finding his feet again on grass and he might even have fancied his chances of making the quarter-finals. Roddick blew all that away with a strong and accurate hitting performance. Roddick’s victory owed much to the power of his serving. He served 24 aces during the match and did not offer a single break point. Berdych challenged him strongly, as Roddick had anticipated, in the first set in particular but once the American had wrapped that up, the pattern was established. Berdych simply could not come close enough to Roddick for long enough to do any real damage."

Read more....Match StatsRoddick Post-Match Interview

McGehee Gaffe Lets Mets Back In, Grand Slam Boots Them Right Back Out

Milwaukee Brewers 10 - 6 New York Mets

Fernando Nieve gave up 3 runs from 11 hits in 3¹/₃ innings. Maybe Jerry Manuel should have left him in.

``McGehee nearly gave New York a way out after giving the Mets life with starter Braden Looper (6-4) cruising and Milwaukee leading 3-0. With two outs and a man on first in the sixth inning, the Brewers third baseman dropped Fernando Martinez's routine fly ball when it hit the heel of his glove and dropped harmlessly to the ground, putting runners on the corners. Brian Schneider hit the next pitch off the wall for a two-run double to cut it to 3-2, but Looper got out of the jam. In the bottom of the inning, Hardy had his third extra base hit when Martinez tried to make a diving catch on a liner to put men on second and third with one out. After Ryan Braun popped out and Prince Fielder was intentionally walked, McGehee drove a high fastball from reliever Brian Stokes into the Brewers bullpen in left center field to make it 7-2."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Dinara Safina vs. Sabine Lisicki - Safina wins 2-0
2) How Many Games Will Be Played Between Victoria Azarenka vs. Serena Williams - 19 games or fewer
3) AC Omonia Nicosia @ Grasshoppers Zürich - Grasshoppers Zürich win
4) WSOP $50,000 HORSE Event: Will The Winner Be A Bracelet Winner, Yes vs. No - Yes
5) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
6) Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream - Atlanta
7) Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays - Tampa Bay
9) How Many Pitches Will Johan Santana Throw: 104 or fewer vs. 105 or more - 105 or more
10) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers - Los Angeles
11) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
12) Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
13) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5^th Inning: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 3 or fewer

Previews

Johan Santana has a complete game in him. It took half the season (7/4/08) to see the first of four. We're nearing half way through this season.

9) So far this season Johan Santana has thrown 105 or more pitches in only one-third of his 15 starts. He may have been ailing after the 120 pitch game against Washington in which he walked 6 batters, four in one inning. He's had a series of low pitch count starts which is not in line with how he was used last season when he threw at least 105 pitches in 21 of his 35 starts in 2008. He has yet to pitch 8 or more innings so far this season. It took Santana until July 4^th to pitch a full 8 innings, and after that he did it 5 more times, including three complete games. I think the umpire for the day will also play an important role as the single biggest factor adding pitches to a count, aside from foul balls, will be balls and walks. The potential home plate umpires for tonight's game are Cederstrom, O'Nora, and Wolf. One can see their statistics here, through the end of May. Pitchers average nearly twice as many walks with Cederstrom at home plate than with O'Nora and Wolf. One can check the game preview an hour before first pitch to see where the umpires will be. If Cederstrom is umping I would definitely go 105 or more. If O'Nora and Wolf are at home plate I would hesitate, but I think Santana may go for a full 8 innings this game with the bullpen having pitched 15²/₃ innings since his last start. Of course, Feliciano, Rodriguez, and Troncoso rested yesterday so there is no real need for Santana to pitch deep into the game.

13) Jason Marquis and Chad Billingsley have started 15 and 16 games this season, respectively. The scoring has totaled 4 or more runs in 7 of Marquis' games and 8 of Billingsley's games, or about 50% of the time. The graph below sums up whether it was Marquis or Billingsley giving up the runs or their own team scoring the runs. One can see that most of the time when the score went over 3 runs it was due to the Rockies or the Dodgers scoring. Marquis has had some awful games, but Billingsley has very rarely given up more than 2 runs in the first four innings (twice in 16 starts). I do think if there is a pair of pitchers who can keep the scoring down to start the game it is these pitchers. One should note, however, that the total runs scored was 4 or more in both pitchers' previous start against the opposition but that both times it was the `other' pitcher (not Marquis or Billingsley) who gave up all of the runs in those games.

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