July 1st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-2-0 today as I learned a valuable lesson. Taking the home team in the WNBA is not always a good substitute for a random MLB pick. My WNBA record moved to 2-1-0 today with the Atlanta Dream losing. They won 4 games total last season. They're still looking for win #5 this season. Another day over .500 making this my best run of luck at this game thus far. I lost with Safina, then won with Serena, then lost with Atlanta, and won with... 3 runs or fewa'. And now on to the picks.

Recaps

Dinara Safina Overcomes Early Match Jitters To Book Her Place In The Final Four

D. Safina def. S. Lisicki 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-1

Dinara Safina had 7 double faults in the first set alone. Fortunately Lisicki wasn't flawless on the court herself.

``Safina was to be less fortunate in her second service game. Two double faults presented her opponent with a pair of break points which the Russian promptly saved, but when a third one came, disaster struck. A point had to be replayed after a call was overruled, which meant that Dinara had to go through the chore of serving all over again. A third double-fault later and Lisicki was in the driving seat. At 5-3, all [Lisicki] had to do was serve out for the set, but it was as if she suddenly realised that the pressure was now on her. Safina needed no second bidding, breaking back to 15 then holding her nerve to level at 5-5. The best chance for the six-foot Muscovite to take the set was via another break, but Lisicki got her stroke-making back and the scoreboard announced 6-6. Lisicki soon had three set points [in the tiebreak] only to wobble again, putting an easy volley wide on the second one with the court at her mercy. She challenged the call, and while she may or may not have believed that the ball had clipped the line, it gave Safina an extra 30 seconds to wait before serving. By default or design on Lisicki’s part, it was a masterstroke – Safina double-faulted, as she had done on match point in the final of the French, and handed the set to the teenager."

Read more... Plus HighlightsMatch StatsSafina Post-Match InterviewLisicki Post-Match Interview

Serena Wows, Overpowers Azarenka For Semis Spot

S. Williams def. V. Azarenka 6-2 6-3 (17 games total)

Serena Williams said she felt she could up her intensity yesterday. She can. She feels she'll need to take it up another notch to win this thing they call Wimbledon.

``It was the power and intensity of [Serena's] game that was so stunning, and never mind that once again she was playing with both ankles heavily taped. Azarenka is rarely overawed by anything, and she herself was having a fine time hammering away from the baseline. But such was Serena’s aggression that the Belarusian simply could not stay with her. Serena’s play was littered with dazzling touches – a lovely running crosscourt forehand here, a 120mph serve there. [In the second set] Williams saved one break point with a smash that only just crept over the net. Serena sent a forehand long for another opportunity, but then delivered three aces in a row to rescue the game. At 2-2 Azarenka broke the Williams serve with an excellent return. But in the next game she gave away a string of break points with horrible mistakes, and on the third break point she made another error to put the set back on serve. By now she was leaking errors and Serena forced the conclusive breakthrough for 5-3, before serving out to love to secure her place in the last four."

Read more... Plus HighlightsMatch StatsS. Williams Post-Match InterviewAzarenka Post-Match Interview

Lynx Less Augustus Deny Dream Club Record Fifth Win

Minnesota Lynx 91 - 85 Atlanta Dream

Even the box score is unavailable on this one.

``Candice Wiggins has picked up her production since the Minnesota Lynx lost Seimone Augustus for the season. Wiggins scored 23 points and Nicky Anosike had 20 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Lynx to a 91-85 win over the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday night. Charde Houston added 18 points for Minnesota (7-3), which made 13 3-pointers to win their third straight. Roneeka Hodges had 15 points on 5-for-7 shooting from beyond the arc. Iziane Castro Marques scored a career-high 31 points for the Dream (4-6), who remained one victory from eclipsing last season's total. Chamique Holdsclaw finished with 14 points, shooting 6 for 17 from the floor."

Read more....

Marquis Challenges Billingsley To A Right Old Pitchers' Duel

Colorado Rockies 3 - 0 Los Angeles Dodgers (Rockies 1 - 0 Dodgers after 4^th)

Jason Marquis was absolutely dominating, needing only 86 pitches to completely shut out the Dodgers. He also batted in two runs off of Billingsley to really drive home who was the better of the two tonight. ``Marquis delivered a two-run single at the plate and outpitched Chad Billingsley in a matchup of potential All-Stars. Brad Hawpe homered for the resurgent Rockies, who set a franchise record for wins in a month with 21. The Rockies' 30-year-old right-hander did not issue a walk and retired 19 consecutive batters between James Loney's one-out single in the second and Juan Castro's two-out single in the eighth. Marquis (10-5) tied Kevin Slowey, Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay and Tim Wakefield for the major league lead in wins, facing one batter more than the minimum and throwing just 86 pitches in his third career shutout." Read more....Box Score

Pitching Stats Through 4th Inning
	Billingsley	Marquis
PIP	14.0	10.8
%Strikes	64%	70%
Hits	2	1
Walks	1	0
PIP - pitches per inning pitched

Play-By-Play

Picks
1) What Will Be The Result Between Ivo Karlovic and Roger Federer: Federer Wins 3-0 vs. Any Other Result - Any other result
2) How Many Sets Will Be Played Between Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick: 4 sets vs. 3 or 5 sets - 4 sets
3) Washington Nationals hits off Johnson vs. Josh Johnson strikeouts - Nationals hits off Johnson
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays - Tampa Bay
5) IK Start @ Lillestrøm SK - Lillestrøm SK win
6) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
8) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians - Chicago
9) San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - San Francisco
10) Corinthians SP @ Internacional RS - Internacional RS win
11) Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
12) Montreal Alouettes @ Calgary Stampeders - Calgary

Previews

(top) Josh Johnson strikeouts/hits given up; (bottom) Nationals hits off starter/struck out. Nolasco, Bergesen, Cueto, and Cain are the only pitchers to win this prop this month. Johnson has won this prop in 7 of 16 starts, including once against Washington. Click on graph for large version.

3) Well, the graph on the right will do most of the talking here. Josh Johnson has given up fewer hits than struck out batters in 7 of his 16 starts, including once against Washington. He has been on the losing end of this proposition in only 6 of those 16 starts.

Washington, despite being in the bottom half of the Majors in strikeouts per at bat this month, have only been struck out more by the starting pitcher four times. Nolasco, Bergesen, Cain, and Cueto were the culprits. If those guys can do it then certainly Josh Johnson is capable of it. Keep in mind, however, that Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, and Matt Garza are some of the pitchers who could not get more strikeouts. Josh Johnson is striking out batters at a .210 rate and his bat against average is .227 so it should be a close one as his two previous meetings with Washington have been.


5) IK Start appear to be the stronger side this season in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. They have only lost twice on the road despite their -4 goal differential while Lillestrøm SK have only won twice at home even though they have an even goal differential. If you click on the form table, however, you'll see both of Lillestrøm SK's wins at home have been in their most recent home matches while IK Start's away losses have been in their most recent three matches.

From what I could tell there were no incredibly serious injury concerns for either team. You can click on the logos to the left and try your hand at translating Norwegian. The root for injury or hurt is skade, skadet, skader. Aside from the better recent form Lillestrøm SK have a long and rich tradition of beating IK Start at home. The last time they did not win outright was in 1994 with 7 straight victories in the meantime. I think that tradition and that they may be a better team by season's end may be enough to see them come away from this match with the full three points.