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2-1-0 yesterday. My first pick was Rory McIlroy to card a lower front 9 score. Joe Durant played a very solid round, hitting most of his fairways and rarely having to scramble to score par. McIlroy routinely found himself hitting his second shot from the rough but managed to stick his shot fairly close to the hole most of the time. The winner of this prop was decided by who had the best mid-range putting game. Durant hit his 10 foot putt on #2 for birdie while McIlroy missed his and ended up with par. Durant missed a 7 foot putt for par and ended up with a bogey on #3. McIlroy missed a 6-foot putt on #6 and ended up with a bogey on that hole. On the par-4 8th hole Joe Durant sank a 12 foot putt for birdie and went up two strokes on McIlroy. McIlroy was able to hit a 5 foot putt on #9 to gain a stroke back but it was not enough as Durant carded a 34 to McIlroy’s 35.
My second pick of the day was for Brian Gay to win the Verizon Open. Gay started out well with a birdie on the first hole and only got better from there. On the par-5 second hole he hit his second shot on to the green 57 feet from the hole and proceeded to sink that monster for an eagle. He had opened up a six stroke lead at that point and went on to hit two more birdies on the front 9 while hitting par on the rest of the holes. His first bogey came on #12 when he missed a 9 foot putt for par. At that point he had a seven stroke lead and it hardly mattered. He hit three more birdies on the next four holes and had a 10 stroke lead on the rest of the field with two holes remaining. He hit par on #17 and #18 to take the tournament with a record 20 under par. His 10 stroke lead on the rest of the field was also a record at Harbour Town. Gay bogeyed two times in the 72 holes he played in the event, also a record.
My third pick was the Vancouver Canucks. The St. Louis Blues took the lead three minutes into the game on a David Backes goal. The Canucks held on from there and in the second period scored a couple of power play goals two minutes apart. Andy McDonal equalized things at 2-2 with four minutes remaining and the score stood heading into the third period. A roughing penalty assessed at the very end of the period would prove costly for the Blues as Vancouver scored on the resulting power play less than two minutes into the third. Vancouver would hold on to win 3-2 to go up 3 games to none in the series. Vancouver converted 3 of their 5 power plays and killed all 6 Blues power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot vs. Ryan Hall – Cheruiyot finishes with a faster time
2) Sheffield United @ Burnley – Burnley win
3) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – New York
4) Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees – 2 home runs or less hit in the game
5) Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals – Washington
6) Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Florida
7) Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros – Cincinnati
8) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – Calgary
9) Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts. and reb.
10) Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Colorado
Analysis
1) Robert Cheruiyot is an overwhelming favorite to win this race in the eyes of the bookies and bettors. Cheruiyot has +150 on him while Ryan Hall is anywhere from +350 to +500. Cheruiyot has won the Boston Marathon for the past three years and set the all-time record at the Boston Marathon in 2006 with a time of 2:07:14. Ryan Hall qualified for the Boston Marathon with his 2:06:17 5th place finish at the London Marathon in 2008. This is Hall’s first entry into the Boston Marathon. Here is a story about that London Marathon that makes me think Cheruiyot will win finish ahead of Hall if not win the race: “On that note I came across the results from the London Marathon this past weekend and Ryan Hall kicked ass. He finished in 5th place (behind 4 Kenyans) with a time of 2:06:17, which is the 3rd best American marathon finish ever. I think the coolest thing I read about the race is that sometime in the middle of the race, Hall in the lead pack rolled up to the front of the Kenyans and told them to pick up the pace, they were running too slow. Granted that may not have been the best move as the Kenyans picked up the pace to 4:30/mile (insanity) and dared him to keep up, not much of a chance.” I think Cheruiyot will be able to match and exceed any pace Hall decides to set but a year of training could surprise everyone.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Sheffield United stands 3rd in the tables with 76 points, 4 points off of automatic promotion to the Premier League. Burnley stands 6th place with 69 points, one point clear of dropping out of the promotion playoffs. Burnley defeated Sheffield United away 3-2 on December 6th, 2008. Sheffield United last lost an away match October 19th, 2008, to Sheffield Wednesday 0-1. Since then they are undefeated in 15 away matches. Burnley lost at home to Sheffield Wednesday 2-4 on February 28th, 2009 and since then have won three straight home matches. Striker Steven Thompson is likely to be missing from Burnley today with injury and fellow striker Martin Paterson is probable to be a substitute rather than a starter. Sheffield United will be without defender Matthew Kilgallon who suffered a knock in during a 1-0 away win at Reading. They will also miss attacking midfielder Brian Howard. With Burnley being at home and desperately needing at least one point to stay in the race for promotion I think they will be more motivated to avoid a loss, while Sheffield United would be satisfied with a draw.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) This game has been postponed.
5) The Washington Nationals are 1-11 this season. They simply have to start winning some games at some point because teams just do not finish the season with 14 wins. They will be starting Jordan Zimmerman who is a highly touted prospect. The Braves will counter with Derek Lowe who has a strong track-record against the Nationals. Lowe has an ERA of 2.81 in three starts this season, having given up 5 runs in 16 innings. Last season he fairly dominated the Nationals with a 0.56 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) in 13 innings and an ERA of 1.13. The Braves look like a lock here, but with Washington due for a win and the potential of Zimmerman they could easily lose a low scoring game.
UPDATE: The 5-year $45 milion deal was for 3B Ryan Zimmerman, unrelated to Jordan Zimmerman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Dirk Nowtizki averaged 34.3 points and rebounds during the season while Tim Duncan averaged 30.0 points and rebounds. In the last 5 games of the season where Duncan played meaningful minutes he averaged 32.8. Nowitzki also stepped up his game, averaging 40.2 rebounds and points in his last 5 games of the regular season. In three meetings during the regular season Nowtizki won this prop once in San Antonio, 37-34 and once in Dallas, 36-31. Duncan won once in Dallas 46-45 and did not play in the third game of the season series. In Game 1 of this series Nowtizki had 19 points and 8 rebounds. Tim Duncan had 27 points and 9 rebounds. Last year against the Hornets Nowitzki averaged 34.8 points and rebounds while going down in 5 games. In the Spurs’ series against the Hornets that same year Duncan averaged 27.1 points and rebounds while winning a 7 game series. After losing Game 1 of this series I think Duncan, out of the two, will be the one to step up his game which was already more than enough to out pace Nowitzki in points and rebounds. Nowitzki has the greater potential to win this prop but I’m inclined to go with the player who won in the previous game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) The starting pitchers in this game are Jon Garland for the Diamondbacks and Jason Marquis for the Rockies. Garland has a year-to-date ERA of 8.44 and is 1-1 in decisions. He’s also struck out 2 batters while walking 8 which is poor for him when he struck out 1.5 times as many batters as he walked last year. Marquis has a 1.93 ERA so far this year and has a 2-0 record in decisions. Both he and Garland have been around 4.50 in ERA for most of their careers. I like Colorado in this game because of how cold the Diamondbacks have been when it comes to hitting the ball recently. They have a .126 batting average in their last 3 games, including a .167 slugging average against Sanchez on Friday night, a pitcher against whom their batting order has a career slugging average of .680 against. Colorado has been only slightly better with a .214 batting average in their past 3 games. At least Colorado has scored 10 runs in those games, whereas Arizona has been limited to 4 runs. Marquis has been pitching well compared to Garland so far this season as well.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Monday, April 20, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
April 19th, 2009 Picks
One of the worst 2-2-0 days I can remember. If you avoided my NBA picks there’s a good chance you went 4-0-0 today. Oy. My first pick of the day was Justin Leonard to card a lower front 9 score. Leonard raced to a two stroke lead after three by birdying the first three holes. He stuck the ball within four feet of the hole for birdie putts on the first two holes and sank a 12 foot putt for birdie on the third. Baddeley and Leonard hit par on the next three holes and Leonard took a three stroke lead with his fourth birdie on the par-3 #7. Leonard hit into a green-side bunker on #8 and took two strokes to get himself out of it. He sank a 10 foot putt for bogey to avoid giving back two strokes. Baddeley hit his second birdie on #9 but Leonard hit par to preserve a one stroke lead. Baddeley was 2 under while Leonard was 3 under.
My next pick was Paul Pierce to score more points. Derrick Rose showed why he is the Rookie of the Year in spectacular fashion. He would have won the prop easily even without including his 11 assists. He had 20 points by half time while Pierce had only taken 4 shots by the half and scored 4 points. By the time the Bulls had pulled of the upset victory in overtime Rose had 36 points, tying the record for most points by a rookie in their first playoff game set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Wilt Chamberlain is second on that list with 35 in his first playoff game. That Rose is a guard makes it all the more remarkable.
My third pick was the Chicago Cubs. St. Louis took an early lead when Ryan Dempster walked the first two batters at the bottom of the Cardinals’ order to start off the third inning. He gave up two more hits and walked another batter and the Cardinals took a 3-0 lead. The Cubs got a run back in the bottom of the inning but Khalil Greene put St. Louis back on top with a lead-off solo home run in the fourth. By the middle of the 8th inning the score was tied 5-5 and it remained that way until the bottom of the 11th whenl Aramis Ramirez had his first hit of the day, a home run, to score two for the Cubs and win the game 7-5.
My last pick of the day was the Portland Trailblazers. Yao Ming was stellar as he made every shot he attempted in the game, scoring 24 points in 24 minutes of play. Brandon Roy had a good game, but got no support from LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw. Houston started to run away with things as the first half ended and continued in that vein throughout the second half, eventually winning Game 1, on the road, 108-81. So on to the picks.
1) Joe Durant vs. Rory McIlroy – McIlroy cards a lower front 9 score
2) Marseille @ Lorient – Marseille win
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – New York
4) Brian Gay vs. Rest of Field – Gay wins the tournament
5) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
6) Deron Williams vs. Pau Gasol – Williams pts. and ast.
7) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
8) Andre Iguodala vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Iguodala pts., reb., and ast.
9) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – Vancouver
10) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Johnson pts. and ast.
11) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – St. Louis
12) Albert Pujols vs. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano hits, runs, and RBIs
13) Chris Paul vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
Analysispicks
1) Joe Durant has plenty of experience on this course. He’s played 27 rounds from 2001-present. His average front 9 score in that time is -0.3, with a median score of even par and a range of scores of (-5 to +4). This is Rory McIlroy’s first appearance in this event. He has carded scores of even par, 1 under, and 1 over. There are a couple of par-5’s McIlroy has birdied in two consecutive rounds. All of his bogeys have been on different holes. He double bogeyed #7 today after laying his tee shot up short into the water. He also bogeyed #4 by hitting into the water. Durant also has bogeys sprinkled on all different holes through the first three rounds so he’s not likely to bogey on any particular hole. He picked up his only two birdies on the front nine in the tournament today on #2 and #9. It’s close but McIlroy is more likely to continue to birdie those par 5’s and is not likely to pick up penalty strokes again. Durant could sink one or more 10 foot putts this time, however, and push or win by a stroke.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Marseille are the current leaders of the French Ligue 1 with 61 points. Lorient currently lie in 11th place with 38 points. The 25 point lead for Marseille is more than enough reason to choose against Lorient at home with the ‘draw’ option. Marseille were knocked out of the UEFA Cup by Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday so their only hope for a trophy out of this season comes from winning their domestic league title. They are 1 point ahead of Lyon and will be motivated to come out of this game with a victory and three points. Marseille will be missing striker Mamadou Niang and defender Taye Taiwo along with midfielder Julien Rodriguez. The absence of these players may be a concern against stronger competition, but not here. Lorient will be missing Marchal, Boutruche, and Soro on defense, with Marchal being the most notable absence. Le Pen and Pinard in the fore field will also miss, though they have few starts this season to begin with. Notable results, Lorient lost at home to Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 on March 9th. Marseille defeated Paris Saint-Germain away 3-1 on March 15th.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Brian Gay currently sits at 13 under with a three stroke lead over the rest of the field. Wilkinson, Janzen, Hamilton, Briny Baird, and Davis Love III are the main threats with Wilkinson at 10 under par and Baird and Love III at 7 under par. Davis Love III should be considered the main threat here. The other challengers are playing above themselves and have already carded rounds of 66 or 65 which they’re not likely to do again in this event. All should hit 69 or worse. Davis Love III’s best round thus far has been a 67, but in the past 5 years his best final round at Harbour Town has been 69. Gay missed the cut in this event last year and his final round scores the two years previous were 73 and 70. That 73 came after hitting a 67 in the 3rd round. 70 or 71 are likely from Gay, but 72 or 73 are just as likely. There is a pretty good chance Gay wins this one with the players below him being unlikely to mount a run.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Silence is the norm for the Diamondbacks and Giants recently, as in the crack of the bat is not heard too often. In the first two games of the series between these teams there have been 4 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are averaging 3.4 runs in their past 5 games and the Giants have averaged 2 runs in their last 5. Randy Johnson and Max Scherzer are the starting pitchers today. Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA in 5 innings pitched against St. Louis this season. Randy Johnson has an 11.42 ERA in 82/3 innings pitched this season, 5 against the Brewers and 32/3 against the Dodgers. Johnson has recorded 12 strikeouts in those 82/3 innings compared to 4 walked. Scherzer has walked two batters and struck out only one in his first start. These teams have not faced these pitchers very much in their careers. Johnson’s opponents, however, have a slugging percentage of 0.707 in 82/3 innings. The Cardinals had a slugging percentage of .364 against Scherzer. Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio is impressive at 3.0, especially compared to Scherzer’s 0.5 ratio. With the bats being quiet Johnson’s propensity for giving up big hits seems less important than his ability to strike out batters. The bullpen for the Giants is not too strong however, and with their bats being quiet as well it will be difficult for them to maintain a lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) I haven’t looked at the stats behind this one, the story behind the prop if you will. All I know is this is Hedo Turkoglu’s first game back from injury and limited production offensively on return from injury is the rule in basketball, even for the most talented players in the league.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Dwyane Wade averages 30.2 points on the year compared to 27.2 points and assists for Joe Johnson. Wade has averaged 27.0 points in his last 5 road games. Johnson has averaged 25.8 points and assists in his last 5 home games. In their three meaningful head to head matchups during the regular season Wade scored 21, 35, and 21 points. Johnson had 24 points, 4 assists, 21 points, 3 assists, and 24 points, 5 assists, winning this prop 2 out of 3 times this season. Last year Wade averaged 23.5 points in the playoffs and Johnson averaged 24.0 points and assists. Wade is the more consistent of the two, but if Johnson is on his game he should win easily. I like Johnson at home to be on his game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) This matchup has been cancelled.
13) During the season Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony each averaged 22.8 points per game. Last year in the playoffs Paul averaged 25.4 points in home games and 22.2 points away. In the past two years in the playoffs Anthony has averaged 23.5 points at home 26.0 points away. It looks like Paul thrives on his home court more than on the road, whereas Anthony is the type who steps up his game more on the road. In the regular season Paul averaged 26.0 points at Denver compared to Carmelo who averaged 23.0 points at home against the Hornets. Both players are capable of scoring 30-plus, especially in the playoffs. I have to give Chris Paul the advantage here as his last 5 road games of the season he has averaged 29.2 points, scoring 26, 9, 42, 26, and 43 points. Anthony averaged 24.4 points in his last 5 home games. On the other hand, Paul will likely try to build his teammates’ confidence in Game 1.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was Paul Pierce to score more points. Derrick Rose showed why he is the Rookie of the Year in spectacular fashion. He would have won the prop easily even without including his 11 assists. He had 20 points by half time while Pierce had only taken 4 shots by the half and scored 4 points. By the time the Bulls had pulled of the upset victory in overtime Rose had 36 points, tying the record for most points by a rookie in their first playoff game set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Wilt Chamberlain is second on that list with 35 in his first playoff game. That Rose is a guard makes it all the more remarkable.
My third pick was the Chicago Cubs. St. Louis took an early lead when Ryan Dempster walked the first two batters at the bottom of the Cardinals’ order to start off the third inning. He gave up two more hits and walked another batter and the Cardinals took a 3-0 lead. The Cubs got a run back in the bottom of the inning but Khalil Greene put St. Louis back on top with a lead-off solo home run in the fourth. By the middle of the 8th inning the score was tied 5-5 and it remained that way until the bottom of the 11th whenl Aramis Ramirez had his first hit of the day, a home run, to score two for the Cubs and win the game 7-5.
My last pick of the day was the Portland Trailblazers. Yao Ming was stellar as he made every shot he attempted in the game, scoring 24 points in 24 minutes of play. Brandon Roy had a good game, but got no support from LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw. Houston started to run away with things as the first half ended and continued in that vein throughout the second half, eventually winning Game 1, on the road, 108-81. So on to the picks.
1) Joe Durant vs. Rory McIlroy – McIlroy cards a lower front 9 score
2) Marseille @ Lorient – Marseille win
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – New York
4) Brian Gay vs. Rest of Field – Gay wins the tournament
5) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
6) Deron Williams vs. Pau Gasol – Williams pts. and ast.
7) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
8) Andre Iguodala vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Iguodala pts., reb., and ast.
9) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – Vancouver
10) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Johnson pts. and ast.
11) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – St. Louis
12) Albert Pujols vs. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano hits, runs, and RBIs
13) Chris Paul vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
Analysispicks
1) Joe Durant has plenty of experience on this course. He’s played 27 rounds from 2001-present. His average front 9 score in that time is -0.3, with a median score of even par and a range of scores of (-5 to +4). This is Rory McIlroy’s first appearance in this event. He has carded scores of even par, 1 under, and 1 over. There are a couple of par-5’s McIlroy has birdied in two consecutive rounds. All of his bogeys have been on different holes. He double bogeyed #7 today after laying his tee shot up short into the water. He also bogeyed #4 by hitting into the water. Durant also has bogeys sprinkled on all different holes through the first three rounds so he’s not likely to bogey on any particular hole. He picked up his only two birdies on the front nine in the tournament today on #2 and #9. It’s close but McIlroy is more likely to continue to birdie those par 5’s and is not likely to pick up penalty strokes again. Durant could sink one or more 10 foot putts this time, however, and push or win by a stroke.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Marseille are the current leaders of the French Ligue 1 with 61 points. Lorient currently lie in 11th place with 38 points. The 25 point lead for Marseille is more than enough reason to choose against Lorient at home with the ‘draw’ option. Marseille were knocked out of the UEFA Cup by Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday so their only hope for a trophy out of this season comes from winning their domestic league title. They are 1 point ahead of Lyon and will be motivated to come out of this game with a victory and three points. Marseille will be missing striker Mamadou Niang and defender Taye Taiwo along with midfielder Julien Rodriguez. The absence of these players may be a concern against stronger competition, but not here. Lorient will be missing Marchal, Boutruche, and Soro on defense, with Marchal being the most notable absence. Le Pen and Pinard in the fore field will also miss, though they have few starts this season to begin with. Notable results, Lorient lost at home to Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 on March 9th. Marseille defeated Paris Saint-Germain away 3-1 on March 15th.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Brian Gay currently sits at 13 under with a three stroke lead over the rest of the field. Wilkinson, Janzen, Hamilton, Briny Baird, and Davis Love III are the main threats with Wilkinson at 10 under par and Baird and Love III at 7 under par. Davis Love III should be considered the main threat here. The other challengers are playing above themselves and have already carded rounds of 66 or 65 which they’re not likely to do again in this event. All should hit 69 or worse. Davis Love III’s best round thus far has been a 67, but in the past 5 years his best final round at Harbour Town has been 69. Gay missed the cut in this event last year and his final round scores the two years previous were 73 and 70. That 73 came after hitting a 67 in the 3rd round. 70 or 71 are likely from Gay, but 72 or 73 are just as likely. There is a pretty good chance Gay wins this one with the players below him being unlikely to mount a run.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Silence is the norm for the Diamondbacks and Giants recently, as in the crack of the bat is not heard too often. In the first two games of the series between these teams there have been 4 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are averaging 3.4 runs in their past 5 games and the Giants have averaged 2 runs in their last 5. Randy Johnson and Max Scherzer are the starting pitchers today. Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA in 5 innings pitched against St. Louis this season. Randy Johnson has an 11.42 ERA in 82/3 innings pitched this season, 5 against the Brewers and 32/3 against the Dodgers. Johnson has recorded 12 strikeouts in those 82/3 innings compared to 4 walked. Scherzer has walked two batters and struck out only one in his first start. These teams have not faced these pitchers very much in their careers. Johnson’s opponents, however, have a slugging percentage of 0.707 in 82/3 innings. The Cardinals had a slugging percentage of .364 against Scherzer. Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio is impressive at 3.0, especially compared to Scherzer’s 0.5 ratio. With the bats being quiet Johnson’s propensity for giving up big hits seems less important than his ability to strike out batters. The bullpen for the Giants is not too strong however, and with their bats being quiet as well it will be difficult for them to maintain a lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) I haven’t looked at the stats behind this one, the story behind the prop if you will. All I know is this is Hedo Turkoglu’s first game back from injury and limited production offensively on return from injury is the rule in basketball, even for the most talented players in the league.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Dwyane Wade averages 30.2 points on the year compared to 27.2 points and assists for Joe Johnson. Wade has averaged 27.0 points in his last 5 road games. Johnson has averaged 25.8 points and assists in his last 5 home games. In their three meaningful head to head matchups during the regular season Wade scored 21, 35, and 21 points. Johnson had 24 points, 4 assists, 21 points, 3 assists, and 24 points, 5 assists, winning this prop 2 out of 3 times this season. Last year Wade averaged 23.5 points in the playoffs and Johnson averaged 24.0 points and assists. Wade is the more consistent of the two, but if Johnson is on his game he should win easily. I like Johnson at home to be on his game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) This matchup has been cancelled.
13) During the season Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony each averaged 22.8 points per game. Last year in the playoffs Paul averaged 25.4 points in home games and 22.2 points away. In the past two years in the playoffs Anthony has averaged 23.5 points at home 26.0 points away. It looks like Paul thrives on his home court more than on the road, whereas Anthony is the type who steps up his game more on the road. In the regular season Paul averaged 26.0 points at Denver compared to Carmelo who averaged 23.0 points at home against the Hornets. Both players are capable of scoring 30-plus, especially in the playoffs. I have to give Chris Paul the advantage here as his last 5 road games of the season he has averaged 29.2 points, scoring 26, 9, 42, 26, and 43 points. Anthony averaged 24.4 points in his last 5 home games. On the other hand, Paul will likely try to build his teammates’ confidence in Game 1.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Saturday, April 18, 2009
April 18th, 2009 Picks
A bit better on the day at 2-0-1. My first pick was Davis Love III to card a lower front 9 score. Davis Love III took a lead early as he set himself up with a 30 foot chip for eagle that became a three foot putt for birdie on the 2nd hole. Boo Weekley hit a bogey on the 3rd to go down two strokes. Both bogeyed the 4th hole, and Weekley hit a birdie on the 5th. Love III extended his lead to three strokes nonetheless by making a 26 foot putt for eagle. Going into the 8th hole Weekley was still down three strokes. He was in position to hold par but a two-putt from 8 feet out on the 8th, and a four-putt on the 9th lead to a bogey and double bogey. Davis Love III finished with a pair of pars and carded a 2-under 34 on the front nine, while Weekley finished with a 4-over 40. As a side-note Weekley carded a back 9 one stroke better than Love III.
My second pick was Paul Casey to card a lower 2nd round score. It was a very close match with Casey hitting two birdies, three bogeys, and 7 pars through the first 12 holes and Zach Johnson hitting two birdies, a bogey, a double bogey, and 8 pars through the first 12. From there Zach Johnson began to falter as he dropped behind a stroke or more on 5 of the final 6 holes. Casey hit two birdies, one on the par-5 15th and one on the par-4 18th as he finally started to drop his shorter putts. Zach Johnson hit into the water on the 14th hole to score a double bogey to go along with two other bogeys. Casey finished with a 70 while Johnson finished the round with a 76.
My final pick was the Flyers to score more goals than the Hurricanes in their respective games. The Flyers scored 1 goal in the first period, but the Hurricanes put in a final minute goal to also score in the 1st of their game. The Hurricanes were held scoreless thereafter but the Devils could not get past Cam Ward. Philadelphia scored early in the 3rd period for their second goal, but gave up a late power play goal to the Penguins. Both games went into overtime with the Flyers having scored 2 to 1 goal for the Hurricanes. Philadelphia was hit with a couple of penalties and could not stand firm against the Penguins in the resulting 5 on 3 situation. Carolina was aggressive from the start in their OT, and coupled with two injuries to the Devils’ front lines were able to score a goal to win their game. The prop ended in a push with both teams scoring two goals. So, we find ourselves again at the time where we go to the picks.
1) Aaron Baddeley vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bolton Wanderers vs. Portsmouth – Portsmouth win
3) Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
4) Derrick Rose vs. Paul Pierce – Pierce pts.
5) Brian Gay vs. Todd Hamilton – Gay cards a lower third round score
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Mo Williams – Hamilton pts.
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins – Los Angeles
9) Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
10) Jeff Gordon vs. Tony Stewart – Gordon has a better final position
11) Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
12) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Detroit
13) Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers – Portland
14) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann – Soszynski
Analysis
1) Both of these players have won this event in the past, Aaron Baddeley in 2006 and Justin Leonard in 2002. Leonard is 8-5-1 in this prop against Baddeley from 2006-present, yet he has placed lower than Baddeley consistently. That suggests to me it is the back 9 which Leonard has problems with. Looking at Baddeley’s second round he hit quite a few mid-to-long range iron shots to within 10 feet of the hole. That is very good, but even for Tiger Woods is considered lucky to happen on consecutive holes. I think Leonard will do better sinking his mid-range putts and Baddeley will be forced to two-putt for par more often. Each player’s median score is -1 on the front 9 from rounds played in the years 2001-present. Baddeley’s average score is -1.3 and he has carded scores ranging from -6 to +2. Leonard’s average score is -1.0 and his scores range from -5 to +2. I think Baddeley scores -2 at best while Leonard has a good chance to score -2 or -3. Assuming Baddeley has better odds of hitting 2 under, but worse odds of hitting any other score between -4 and +2, I’d say Baddeley’s chances of winning are 40.6%, Leonard’s chances are 41.8%, and the probablity of a push are 17.6%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Portsmouth sit at even odds to win this game, while a win or a draw for Bolton Wanderers are at 25% and 29%, respectively. That gives Bolton Wanderers a slight edge odds-wise, though either golf pick holds better odds for not losing. Both teams are at full strength though Danny Shittu is a major doubt for Bolton on defense. Bolton will not want to find themselves down at half time as they have not won or drawn a match on the road when in that position. Bolton Wanderers are 0-2-3 (W-D-L) in their past 5 away matches, drawing to West Bromwich Albion and Blackburn Rovers, while losing to Stoke City, Chelsea, and Everton. Portsmouth are 2-1-2 in their past 5 home matches, defeating Everton and Manchester City, while losing to Chelsea and Liverpool and drawing to West Bromwich Albion. Bolton were missing Glenn Johnson on defense and Sean Davis up front in the West Brom match. Both players have started 24 to 25 matches this season. I think Portsmouth has strong victories against stronger teams than Bolton, while Bolton have not managed to win on the road at all recently, managing draws against sides with worse home form than Portsmouth.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Derrick Rose averaged 23.1 points and assists during the regular season and had a very nice finish with a number of terrific games. He averaged 18.7 points and 7.6 assists in the last 10 games of the season. Paul Pierce averaged 20.5 points during the season and 21.9 points in the last 10 games he played. During the season the Bulls and the Celtics played one another three times. Rose had 19 points and assists in all three meetings and Pierce had 14, 16, and 37 points. In the low scoring games Kevin Garnett played and Pierce was in for less than 35 minutes in big victories for the Celtics. He played 39 minutes without Kevin Garnett in the 37 point game. Pierce is the leader of the Celtics and their number one scoring option without Garnett on the floor. This is Rose’s first playoff game and there is a chance his inexperience could lead to turnovers and forcing bad shots. Rajon Rondo is a good defender with playoff experience so the 19 points and assists for Rose against the Celtics could be his ceiling.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Brian Gay and Todd Hamilton have hit rounds of 66, 66, 67, and 68 between them so far at Harbour Town this year. The 68 and 66 are the best Hamilton has ever scored in playing this event from 2004 till now. Gay has carded a round of 66 once before and 67 three times from 2001 till now. Gay’s average score is 71.1 and his median score is 71. Hamilton’s average score is 72.8 and his median score is 73.5. This year and in 2008 Gay has missed the cut in 11 events, finished in the top 10 seven times and won 1 event. In that same time Hamilton has missed the cut in 18 events and has not finished in the top 10 a single time. Gay has proven he has the potential to play at this level in the past two years. Hamilton looks to be overachieving, where even if he hits a 75 today he looks to put in his best performance of the past two years.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) What can I say here other than that the team with home court advantage has a great advantage in Game 1. Maybe it’s that the road team knows they’ll have another chance at stealing the next game and even then can even the series up at home and ride that momentum to a road win in Game 5. Whatever it is Dallas’ best chance lies in outstanding play by Jason Terry and Josh Howard. If Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea can add strong games on top of that they could win here. The Spurs are missing Manu Ginobili but it is not an unfamiliar position for them to be in and they’ve won without him plenty during the season. More likely than not Dallas’ younger players will have so-so games in a loss.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) The pitching matchup in this game features Edwin Jackson for the Tigers and Erik Bedard for the Mariners. Jackson has pitched 131/3 innings this year and given up 5 earned runs, 4 to the Texas Rangers, and 1 to the Toronto Blue Jays. Bedard has pitched 131/3 innings and given up 3 earned runs, all to the Minnesota Twins. Last year Bedard had an ERA of 1.80 against the Tigers and Jackson had an ERA of 0.60 against the Mariners and both pitchers won the decisions when they pitched. The batter v. pitcher stats show the Mariners with a career slugging average of .442 against Jackson and the Tigers with a slugging average of .458. Jackson’s strikeout to walk ratio is 4.0 against the Mariners while Bedard’s is 2.0 against the Tigers. It will be difficult for the Tigers to win on the road in this game against Mariners team improved from last year but Jackson is the pitcher on the mound to do it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) In the Western Conference the team with home court advantage ends up winning the series something like 75% of the time. That team wins game 1 at least that often. The Blazers are continuing to play their best basketball of the season. Yao Ming will provide matchup problems, as he does for any opponent. Scola, Battier, and Artest will need to have great nights offensively to keep up with Portland’s offense, and a strong defensive night will help with that. In the end it will probably be Portland’s bench that extends their leads and keeps the game out of reach for the Rockets, even if the Rockets play an exceptional game.
Confidence: W7 streak or les
My second pick was Paul Casey to card a lower 2nd round score. It was a very close match with Casey hitting two birdies, three bogeys, and 7 pars through the first 12 holes and Zach Johnson hitting two birdies, a bogey, a double bogey, and 8 pars through the first 12. From there Zach Johnson began to falter as he dropped behind a stroke or more on 5 of the final 6 holes. Casey hit two birdies, one on the par-5 15th and one on the par-4 18th as he finally started to drop his shorter putts. Zach Johnson hit into the water on the 14th hole to score a double bogey to go along with two other bogeys. Casey finished with a 70 while Johnson finished the round with a 76.
My final pick was the Flyers to score more goals than the Hurricanes in their respective games. The Flyers scored 1 goal in the first period, but the Hurricanes put in a final minute goal to also score in the 1st of their game. The Hurricanes were held scoreless thereafter but the Devils could not get past Cam Ward. Philadelphia scored early in the 3rd period for their second goal, but gave up a late power play goal to the Penguins. Both games went into overtime with the Flyers having scored 2 to 1 goal for the Hurricanes. Philadelphia was hit with a couple of penalties and could not stand firm against the Penguins in the resulting 5 on 3 situation. Carolina was aggressive from the start in their OT, and coupled with two injuries to the Devils’ front lines were able to score a goal to win their game. The prop ended in a push with both teams scoring two goals. So, we find ourselves again at the time where we go to the picks.
1) Aaron Baddeley vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bolton Wanderers vs. Portsmouth – Portsmouth win
3) Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
4) Derrick Rose vs. Paul Pierce – Pierce pts.
5) Brian Gay vs. Todd Hamilton – Gay cards a lower third round score
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Mo Williams – Hamilton pts.
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins – Los Angeles
9) Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
10) Jeff Gordon vs. Tony Stewart – Gordon has a better final position
11) Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
12) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Detroit
13) Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers – Portland
14) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann – Soszynski
Analysis
1) Both of these players have won this event in the past, Aaron Baddeley in 2006 and Justin Leonard in 2002. Leonard is 8-5-1 in this prop against Baddeley from 2006-present, yet he has placed lower than Baddeley consistently. That suggests to me it is the back 9 which Leonard has problems with. Looking at Baddeley’s second round he hit quite a few mid-to-long range iron shots to within 10 feet of the hole. That is very good, but even for Tiger Woods is considered lucky to happen on consecutive holes. I think Leonard will do better sinking his mid-range putts and Baddeley will be forced to two-putt for par more often. Each player’s median score is -1 on the front 9 from rounds played in the years 2001-present. Baddeley’s average score is -1.3 and he has carded scores ranging from -6 to +2. Leonard’s average score is -1.0 and his scores range from -5 to +2. I think Baddeley scores -2 at best while Leonard has a good chance to score -2 or -3. Assuming Baddeley has better odds of hitting 2 under, but worse odds of hitting any other score between -4 and +2, I’d say Baddeley’s chances of winning are 40.6%, Leonard’s chances are 41.8%, and the probablity of a push are 17.6%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Portsmouth sit at even odds to win this game, while a win or a draw for Bolton Wanderers are at 25% and 29%, respectively. That gives Bolton Wanderers a slight edge odds-wise, though either golf pick holds better odds for not losing. Both teams are at full strength though Danny Shittu is a major doubt for Bolton on defense. Bolton will not want to find themselves down at half time as they have not won or drawn a match on the road when in that position. Bolton Wanderers are 0-2-3 (W-D-L) in their past 5 away matches, drawing to West Bromwich Albion and Blackburn Rovers, while losing to Stoke City, Chelsea, and Everton. Portsmouth are 2-1-2 in their past 5 home matches, defeating Everton and Manchester City, while losing to Chelsea and Liverpool and drawing to West Bromwich Albion. Bolton were missing Glenn Johnson on defense and Sean Davis up front in the West Brom match. Both players have started 24 to 25 matches this season. I think Portsmouth has strong victories against stronger teams than Bolton, while Bolton have not managed to win on the road at all recently, managing draws against sides with worse home form than Portsmouth.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Derrick Rose averaged 23.1 points and assists during the regular season and had a very nice finish with a number of terrific games. He averaged 18.7 points and 7.6 assists in the last 10 games of the season. Paul Pierce averaged 20.5 points during the season and 21.9 points in the last 10 games he played. During the season the Bulls and the Celtics played one another three times. Rose had 19 points and assists in all three meetings and Pierce had 14, 16, and 37 points. In the low scoring games Kevin Garnett played and Pierce was in for less than 35 minutes in big victories for the Celtics. He played 39 minutes without Kevin Garnett in the 37 point game. Pierce is the leader of the Celtics and their number one scoring option without Garnett on the floor. This is Rose’s first playoff game and there is a chance his inexperience could lead to turnovers and forcing bad shots. Rajon Rondo is a good defender with playoff experience so the 19 points and assists for Rose against the Celtics could be his ceiling.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Brian Gay and Todd Hamilton have hit rounds of 66, 66, 67, and 68 between them so far at Harbour Town this year. The 68 and 66 are the best Hamilton has ever scored in playing this event from 2004 till now. Gay has carded a round of 66 once before and 67 three times from 2001 till now. Gay’s average score is 71.1 and his median score is 71. Hamilton’s average score is 72.8 and his median score is 73.5. This year and in 2008 Gay has missed the cut in 11 events, finished in the top 10 seven times and won 1 event. In that same time Hamilton has missed the cut in 18 events and has not finished in the top 10 a single time. Gay has proven he has the potential to play at this level in the past two years. Hamilton looks to be overachieving, where even if he hits a 75 today he looks to put in his best performance of the past two years.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) What can I say here other than that the team with home court advantage has a great advantage in Game 1. Maybe it’s that the road team knows they’ll have another chance at stealing the next game and even then can even the series up at home and ride that momentum to a road win in Game 5. Whatever it is Dallas’ best chance lies in outstanding play by Jason Terry and Josh Howard. If Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea can add strong games on top of that they could win here. The Spurs are missing Manu Ginobili but it is not an unfamiliar position for them to be in and they’ve won without him plenty during the season. More likely than not Dallas’ younger players will have so-so games in a loss.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) The pitching matchup in this game features Edwin Jackson for the Tigers and Erik Bedard for the Mariners. Jackson has pitched 131/3 innings this year and given up 5 earned runs, 4 to the Texas Rangers, and 1 to the Toronto Blue Jays. Bedard has pitched 131/3 innings and given up 3 earned runs, all to the Minnesota Twins. Last year Bedard had an ERA of 1.80 against the Tigers and Jackson had an ERA of 0.60 against the Mariners and both pitchers won the decisions when they pitched. The batter v. pitcher stats show the Mariners with a career slugging average of .442 against Jackson and the Tigers with a slugging average of .458. Jackson’s strikeout to walk ratio is 4.0 against the Mariners while Bedard’s is 2.0 against the Tigers. It will be difficult for the Tigers to win on the road in this game against Mariners team improved from last year but Jackson is the pitcher on the mound to do it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) In the Western Conference the team with home court advantage ends up winning the series something like 75% of the time. That team wins game 1 at least that often. The Blazers are continuing to play their best basketball of the season. Yao Ming will provide matchup problems, as he does for any opponent. Scola, Battier, and Artest will need to have great nights offensively to keep up with Portland’s offense, and a strong defensive night will help with that. In the end it will probably be Portland’s bench that extends their leads and keeps the game out of reach for the Rockets, even if the Rockets play an exceptional game.
Confidence: W7 streak or les
Friday, April 17, 2009
April 17th, 2009 Picks
Yuck, 2-2-1 on the day. My first pick was for Johnson or Immelman to card a lower first 9 score. It started off well enough with Johnson and Immelman keeping pace with Villegas as each player had a bogey in the first two holes. Over the next five holes Immelman and Johnson had two birdies apiece while Villegas saved par time and again with excellent long putts, but failed to pick up birdies with not so excellent short putts. Johnson and Immelman were each up two strokes on Villegas going into the penultimate hole of the prop. Villegas hit par again while Johnson bogeyed and Immelman picked up his third birdie of the round. On the final hole, a par 4, Villegas missed the green with his second shot and two-putted from 10 feet away to card his second bogey to go along with 7 pars while Immelman carded his fourth birdie to finish five strokes ahead of Villegas and four strokes ahead of Johnson.
My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.
My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.
My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.
My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Pa̤os de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora РPa̤os de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.
My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.
My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.
My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Pa̤os de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora РPa̤os de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Thursday, April 16, 2009
April 16th, 2009 Picks
2-1-0 today. My first pick was 20 games or more played. The match was a bit iffy at first as Lapentti lost his first service game and was down 2-0. He came back, however, and forced a tie break on the first set which he won. When Safin won the first game of the second set it was all but over, with 14 games having been played and Lapentti needing to win 6 to end the match. In the end Safin won the second set 6-2 and lost the match to Lapentti 6-7 in the third set, with 34 games having been played.
My second pick was the Cleveland Indians. They went up early 1-0 when Sizemore hit a single to drive Gaffanino home. Another single by Garko in the top of 6th put Cleveland up 2-0. The lead was brief as DeJesus grounded out in the bottom of the 6th but allowing Crisp to make the run from third base to home. Cleveland relieved Laffey at that point and after a strikeout put in Jensen Lewis as their second reliever. Lewis made the unfortunate mistake of walking the first two batters he faced to load the bases and walking the next batter to put another run in for the Royals. The Indians were fortunate to get out of the inning with the score tied 2-2. Kansas City went to their bullpen in the 7th inning and Cleveland was able to knock in three more runs. An RBI in the 7th and a solo home run for Kansas City made the score 5-4 but Kerry Wood was able to retire three straight in the 9th inning and Cleveland held on to win 5-4.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. It was a bad pick to say the least. Baltimore was up 3-1 going into the bottom of the 3rd and it all went downhill from there. Kinsler hit a solo home run and Byrd and Blalock had a pair of RBI’s to give the Rangers a 4-3 lead. In the 4th inning Andrus scored on an error at home, and Byrd recorded another RBI as Hendrickson was relieved with the bases loaded at that point. Cruz hit a grand slam with the next at bat, Andrus hit a triple for another RBI, and Kinsler batted in another run as the Rangers raced out to a 12-3 lead. There was no relief for the Orioles as Byrd hit his 4th RBI of the night in the next inning. In the end Kinsler, Cruz, and Byrd recorded 13 RBI’s on the night and the Orioles went down in flames 19-6. So on to the picks.
1) Villegas vs. Johnson or Immelman – Johnson or Immelman card a lower first 9 score.
2) Paris Saint-Germain @ Dynamo Kiev – 2 goals or fewer
3) Jim Furyk vs. Aaron Baddeley – Baddeley cards a lower first round score
4) Adam Wainwright SO vs. Chicago Cubs hits off Wainwright – Wainwright SO
5) Hamburg SV @ Manchester City – Hamburg SV win or draw
6) Boston Bruins win margin vs. Detroit Red Wings win margin – Boston win margin
7) Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Chicago
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers record fewer errors
10) Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more
Analysis
1) This is a prop to see who will card a lower score on the first 9 holes, which is the back 9 for this group. The course is Harbour Town. Villegas has an average back 9 score on this course of +1.2 and a median score of +2. Johnson’s average back 9 score is +0.9 with a median score of +0.5. Immelman has an average back 9 score of -0.1 with a median score of even par. As far as the range of scores carded Villegas has shot between -3 and +4, Johnson between -2 and +5, and Immelman between -2 and +2. Johnson’s scoring average in all events this year is 70.01, while Villegas’ is 70.64 and Immelman’s is 71.78. Villegas just got done with a solid four rounds at Augusta while Johnson and Immelman both missed the cut at the Masters. Overall this year Villegas has three top 10 finishes, while missing 2 of 8 cuts. Johnson has 3 top 10 finishes including a 1st place finish, while missing 3 of 9 cuts. Immelman hasn’t finished in the top 10 so far this year but has only missed one cut in 7 events. I like the historical performance of Immelman and Johnson on this course over the recent performance of Villegas at the Masters. I would say there is a 12.2% chance for a push, a 35.7% for a Villegas win and a 52.1% chance for a win by Johnson or Immelman.
UPDATE: Thanks GoKings for the heads up, Immelman did make the cut at this years Masters, he finished at 2 under, in 20th place.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) These two sides played the first leg of their UEFA Cup tie to a 0-0 draw in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain have conceded 1 goal in their last 7 UEFA cup matches. Dynamo Kiev have conceded 5 goals in their last 5 Cup matches. Both sides will be trying to score, but after the first goal that side will defend their lead tenaciously. Paris Saint-Germain will be missing strikers Mateja Kezman who was a substitute in the last match against Dynamo Kiev, but will return Sylvain Armand on defense. Dynamo Kiev’s captain, Taras Mikhalik, will be missed at midfield as he was the first line of defense and Kiev may be particularly vulnerable. Carlos Correa is also a doubt for the match, though he has not been an integral part of their flow on the field. Other injuries or doubts for this match involve players who did not play in the 0-0 draw previously.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) So far this year Adam Wainwright has pitched in two games. In the first he struckout 7 batters while the Pittsburgh Pirates got 4 hits off of him. In the second game Wainwright struck out 4 batters while the Houston Astros got 4 hits off of him. Last season Wainwright pitched two games against the games, one at Wrigley Field. In both games he struckout 5 batters while giving up 4 hits. One thing to keep in mind is that a batter reaching base on fielder’s choice is not recorded as a hit. Against starting pitchers this season the Cubs have 41 hits in 401/3 innings, but have averaged 1 hit or less against those pitchers in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Cubs have only struck out more than they have hit against a starting pitcher once this season. Thanks to fredbailey for pointing out that last fact.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) I like the Bruins in this one because the same factors favoring Pittsburgh winning by more goals yesterday also favor Boston here, but even more so. First are the goalie matchups. Boston starts Tim Thomas who has a nice 2.10 GAA with 93.3 SV%. Montreal starts Carey Price with a 2.83 GAA and 91.5 SV%. Boston averages a goal scored for every 9.15 shots taken on goal and Montreal averages a goal for every 9.88 shots. Boston outscored Montreal by 10 goals in going 5-0-1 during the regular season. Detroit is looking to start Chris Osgood with a 3.09 GAA and 88.7 SV%. Columbus starts Steve Mason with a 2.29 GAA and 91.6 SV%. Detroit averages a goal for every 10 shots taken while Columbus averages a goal for every 10.5 shots taken. During the regular season Detroit outscored Columbus by 1 goal while going 3-2-1 in those matchups. That number is so small because they suffered an 8-2 defeat to the Blue Jackets in Detroit with Osgood giving up 7 of those goals on 23 shots. In their victories Detroit’s average margin of victory was 3 goals.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) The Chicago White Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008. In two of those games John Danks pitched, recording an ERA of 0.69 in thirteen innings pitched. The White Sox won both games by scores of 6-0 and 5-1. In all four games against the Rays, including the playoffs, Danks had an ERA of 2.42 in 26 innings pitched and the Sox were 3-1. In the third game the Sox won at Tropicana Field last year Jeff Niemann pitched 3.1 innings and gave up 7 runs, five of them earned runs. The Sox hit two home runs, and Niemann walked in another run by hitting a batter with a pitch and the bases loaded. The Sox won that game 9-2. So far this season Niemann has a 10.13 ERA in 51/3 innings pitched, but keep in mind his ERA was 45.00 in the first inning he pitched and 2.08 over the next 41/3 innings. Danks has a 0.00 ERA so far this season in 6 innings pitched. Evan Longoria is out for the Rays for this game as he is still attending to personal matters.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) Anaheim and San Jose have played one another 6 times this season with 5 goals or fewer being scored 5 times. They played each other twice in the last week of the season with 7 and 5 goals being scored. Anaheim won 5-2 in San Jose and the Sharks won 3-2 in Anaheim. Jonas Hiller was in net for Anaheim in both games while Nabokov and Boucher were in net for the Sharks in the first and second games, respectively. Anaheim closed out the season strong scoring 3.9 goals per game in their final 10 games. Hiller will be starting for the Ducks in this first playoff game after strong performances in the regular season while the Sharks will rely primarily on Evgeni Nabokov. Both goalies average better than .915 on saves and under 2.5 on goals against.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My second pick was the Cleveland Indians. They went up early 1-0 when Sizemore hit a single to drive Gaffanino home. Another single by Garko in the top of 6th put Cleveland up 2-0. The lead was brief as DeJesus grounded out in the bottom of the 6th but allowing Crisp to make the run from third base to home. Cleveland relieved Laffey at that point and after a strikeout put in Jensen Lewis as their second reliever. Lewis made the unfortunate mistake of walking the first two batters he faced to load the bases and walking the next batter to put another run in for the Royals. The Indians were fortunate to get out of the inning with the score tied 2-2. Kansas City went to their bullpen in the 7th inning and Cleveland was able to knock in three more runs. An RBI in the 7th and a solo home run for Kansas City made the score 5-4 but Kerry Wood was able to retire three straight in the 9th inning and Cleveland held on to win 5-4.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. It was a bad pick to say the least. Baltimore was up 3-1 going into the bottom of the 3rd and it all went downhill from there. Kinsler hit a solo home run and Byrd and Blalock had a pair of RBI’s to give the Rangers a 4-3 lead. In the 4th inning Andrus scored on an error at home, and Byrd recorded another RBI as Hendrickson was relieved with the bases loaded at that point. Cruz hit a grand slam with the next at bat, Andrus hit a triple for another RBI, and Kinsler batted in another run as the Rangers raced out to a 12-3 lead. There was no relief for the Orioles as Byrd hit his 4th RBI of the night in the next inning. In the end Kinsler, Cruz, and Byrd recorded 13 RBI’s on the night and the Orioles went down in flames 19-6. So on to the picks.
1) Villegas vs. Johnson or Immelman – Johnson or Immelman card a lower first 9 score.
2) Paris Saint-Germain @ Dynamo Kiev – 2 goals or fewer
3) Jim Furyk vs. Aaron Baddeley – Baddeley cards a lower first round score
4) Adam Wainwright SO vs. Chicago Cubs hits off Wainwright – Wainwright SO
5) Hamburg SV @ Manchester City – Hamburg SV win or draw
6) Boston Bruins win margin vs. Detroit Red Wings win margin – Boston win margin
7) Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Chicago
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers record fewer errors
10) Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more
Analysis
1) This is a prop to see who will card a lower score on the first 9 holes, which is the back 9 for this group. The course is Harbour Town. Villegas has an average back 9 score on this course of +1.2 and a median score of +2. Johnson’s average back 9 score is +0.9 with a median score of +0.5. Immelman has an average back 9 score of -0.1 with a median score of even par. As far as the range of scores carded Villegas has shot between -3 and +4, Johnson between -2 and +5, and Immelman between -2 and +2. Johnson’s scoring average in all events this year is 70.01, while Villegas’ is 70.64 and Immelman’s is 71.78. Villegas just got done with a solid four rounds at Augusta while Johnson and Immelman both missed the cut at the Masters. Overall this year Villegas has three top 10 finishes, while missing 2 of 8 cuts. Johnson has 3 top 10 finishes including a 1st place finish, while missing 3 of 9 cuts. Immelman hasn’t finished in the top 10 so far this year but has only missed one cut in 7 events. I like the historical performance of Immelman and Johnson on this course over the recent performance of Villegas at the Masters. I would say there is a 12.2% chance for a push, a 35.7% for a Villegas win and a 52.1% chance for a win by Johnson or Immelman.
UPDATE: Thanks GoKings for the heads up, Immelman did make the cut at this years Masters, he finished at 2 under, in 20th place.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) These two sides played the first leg of their UEFA Cup tie to a 0-0 draw in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain have conceded 1 goal in their last 7 UEFA cup matches. Dynamo Kiev have conceded 5 goals in their last 5 Cup matches. Both sides will be trying to score, but after the first goal that side will defend their lead tenaciously. Paris Saint-Germain will be missing strikers Mateja Kezman who was a substitute in the last match against Dynamo Kiev, but will return Sylvain Armand on defense. Dynamo Kiev’s captain, Taras Mikhalik, will be missed at midfield as he was the first line of defense and Kiev may be particularly vulnerable. Carlos Correa is also a doubt for the match, though he has not been an integral part of their flow on the field. Other injuries or doubts for this match involve players who did not play in the 0-0 draw previously.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) So far this year Adam Wainwright has pitched in two games. In the first he struckout 7 batters while the Pittsburgh Pirates got 4 hits off of him. In the second game Wainwright struck out 4 batters while the Houston Astros got 4 hits off of him. Last season Wainwright pitched two games against the games, one at Wrigley Field. In both games he struckout 5 batters while giving up 4 hits. One thing to keep in mind is that a batter reaching base on fielder’s choice is not recorded as a hit. Against starting pitchers this season the Cubs have 41 hits in 401/3 innings, but have averaged 1 hit or less against those pitchers in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Cubs have only struck out more than they have hit against a starting pitcher once this season. Thanks to fredbailey for pointing out that last fact.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) I like the Bruins in this one because the same factors favoring Pittsburgh winning by more goals yesterday also favor Boston here, but even more so. First are the goalie matchups. Boston starts Tim Thomas who has a nice 2.10 GAA with 93.3 SV%. Montreal starts Carey Price with a 2.83 GAA and 91.5 SV%. Boston averages a goal scored for every 9.15 shots taken on goal and Montreal averages a goal for every 9.88 shots. Boston outscored Montreal by 10 goals in going 5-0-1 during the regular season. Detroit is looking to start Chris Osgood with a 3.09 GAA and 88.7 SV%. Columbus starts Steve Mason with a 2.29 GAA and 91.6 SV%. Detroit averages a goal for every 10 shots taken while Columbus averages a goal for every 10.5 shots taken. During the regular season Detroit outscored Columbus by 1 goal while going 3-2-1 in those matchups. That number is so small because they suffered an 8-2 defeat to the Blue Jackets in Detroit with Osgood giving up 7 of those goals on 23 shots. In their victories Detroit’s average margin of victory was 3 goals.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) The Chicago White Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008. In two of those games John Danks pitched, recording an ERA of 0.69 in thirteen innings pitched. The White Sox won both games by scores of 6-0 and 5-1. In all four games against the Rays, including the playoffs, Danks had an ERA of 2.42 in 26 innings pitched and the Sox were 3-1. In the third game the Sox won at Tropicana Field last year Jeff Niemann pitched 3.1 innings and gave up 7 runs, five of them earned runs. The Sox hit two home runs, and Niemann walked in another run by hitting a batter with a pitch and the bases loaded. The Sox won that game 9-2. So far this season Niemann has a 10.13 ERA in 51/3 innings pitched, but keep in mind his ERA was 45.00 in the first inning he pitched and 2.08 over the next 41/3 innings. Danks has a 0.00 ERA so far this season in 6 innings pitched. Evan Longoria is out for the Rays for this game as he is still attending to personal matters.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) Anaheim and San Jose have played one another 6 times this season with 5 goals or fewer being scored 5 times. They played each other twice in the last week of the season with 7 and 5 goals being scored. Anaheim won 5-2 in San Jose and the Sharks won 3-2 in Anaheim. Jonas Hiller was in net for Anaheim in both games while Nabokov and Boucher were in net for the Sharks in the first and second games, respectively. Anaheim closed out the season strong scoring 3.9 goals per game in their final 10 games. Hiller will be starting for the Ducks in this first playoff game after strong performances in the regular season while the Sharks will rely primarily on Evgeni Nabokov. Both goalies average better than .915 on saves and under 2.5 on goals against.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
April 15th, 2009 Picks
0-1-1 today. Yes, 0-1-1. I avoided picking Safin, the White Sox game was postponed due to rain and I avoided picking Bayern Munich. My next pick was for the Islanders/Avalanche/Thrashers to win the #1 draft pick in the NHL draft lottery. I switched my pick just before 6pm to the 76ers. Oh man, what a mistake. On the up side the very fact that I avoided picking the morning games meant I only lost a 3 game streak with that pick rather than a 5 game streak. The down side is that I could easily have built my streak up to 7 today.
The Sixers played like a team that did not belong in the playoffs. Boston’s offense was fluid with players moving from side-to-side on the court, setting screens to one another, and moving the ball around through crisp passing rather than dribbling. That is the kind of offense that leads to easy baskets for wide open men. The Sixers’ tended to stand around on the offensive end and wait for the ball to be passed to them before they began to move around. Most of their offense was created in one-on-one situations, with players creating their own shot.
At the end of the half the Celtics appeared to lose interest in the game and began to give up a wide variety of wide open slam dunks and fast break points off of turnovers. The Sixers took a 58-50 lead into the half and maintained a 5 point lead through the third quarter. Paul Pierce did a terrific job keeping Boston in the game as he went 7 for 9 from the three point line. Boston erased their deficit and took a lead early in the 4th quarter as Philadelphia went over the foul limit with 9 minutes remaining. The game was close down the stretch and with 19 seconds to go Philadelphia got possession of the ball and down a point. Miller inbounded the ball to Iguodala who dribbled the clock down to 5 seconds before attempting a drive to the hoop which Pierce and Marbury headed off. Iguodala ended up lobbing up a one handed fall away shot while moving to his left which missed and the Celtics held on to win 100-98. So away from this and on to the next. Day of picks.
1) Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Lapentti – 20 games or more
2) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Cleveland
3) Manchester United @ FC Porto – FC Porto win or draw
4) Villarreal @ Arsenal – 2 goals or fewer
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
7) Washington Capitals win margin vs. Pittsburgh Penguins win margin – Pittsburgh
8) Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks – Houston
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – Baltimore
10) St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks – 5 goals or fewer
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
12) Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers – Portland
20+ for the morning, with an L1 streak what have I got to lose?
Analysis
1) Marat Safin is ranked #21 in the world right now on the ATP Tour. He has not won a single match in 2009 in under 20 games as of yet. He always could pick up his first such match tomorrow against Lapentti. Nicolas Lapentti is currently ranked #98 in the world. He has lost in straight sets and in 19 games or fewer to players lower ranked than himself in 2009 (#142 Mikhail Kukushkin for one). He has also won matches against players ranked higher than Safin in 20 games or more; his round of 64 match against #15 Radek Stepanik which he won on Monday is a good example. In the end if one of these players is having a bad day on the court and the other is in the zone it could easily go over, but I like that Lapentti is playing well in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Currently Kansas City is favored at -115 with the odds on Cleveland being +105, which is pretty close. Sidney Ponson is starting for the Royals in this game. Last year he averaged fewer than one strikeout every 2 innings pitched and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.2. The Indians’ rotation has taken 49 turns at the bat against Ponson and hit 3 home runs, 3 doubles, and 15 singles while batting in 16 runs. In his first start of the season Ponson gave up 4 runs in 6 innings pitched. Aaron Laffey will be pitching for the Indians and he turns 24 today. Against the Royals’ batters he has given up 2 doubles, 12 singles and 3 RBIs in 64 at bats while striking out 11 batters and walking only 6. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.4 last year while having a 4.23 ERA. Not a terrific pitcher but if Cleveland can break out of their hitting slump and score runs against a pitcher they have had success against previously they should have the advantage.
Confidence: W2 streak
3) Manchester United is a terrific side and they will be returning Rio Ferdinand in the back field to pair with Nemanja Vidic on defense. They have not played many games with both players starting in the past month or so and in that time their form has dipped considerably. A 17’ sending off of Paul Scholes led to a 0-2 defeat at Fulham and they have had to rely on late game winners from 17 year old Federico Macheda to win their last two Premier League matches. Adding Ferdinand to the mix will help but it will be difficult for them to transform themselves into the side they will need to be to win this match overnight. FC Porto head the Portuguese Liga and have not lost at home in that league except for once to Leixoes when they had a reserve keeper in the net. FC Porto have never lost to an English team at home in their history as a football club. Manchester United will be looking to equalize the away goal count with at least 2 and will be playing to win but FC Porto knows they only have to outscore Manchester United by one goal to advance to the semi-finals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Evan Longoria will be missing the game tonight for the Rays to attend to some personal matters. The lines opened very close on this game with some books having the matchup at even odds while others had Tampa Bay at -110 and New York at +100. The starting pitchers will be two Andys, Pettite for the Yankees and Sonnanstine for the Rays. They have each started one game so far this season. Sonnanstine recorded a 12.60 ERA in a loss and Pettite had a 1.96 ERA in a win. Historically Pettite has done better against the Rays’ batters than Sonnanstine. Pettite has given up 3 home runs and 16 RBIs in 174 at bats for the Rays while Sonnanstine has been homered 4 times along with 10 runs being batted in in 86 at bats for the Yankees. Pettite gives up more hits on average than Sonnanstine does. Sonnanstine gives up 0.465 total bases per at bat compared to 0.379 total bases per at bat for Pettite. Last year Sonnanstine had a 10.61 ERA against the Yankees with a record of 1-0 and Pettite had a 4.13 ERA against the Rays with a record of 2-2.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Houston is playing to win the Southwest Division title over the San Antonio Spurs, something they have not done in a long time. Dallas will want to end the season on a winning note and possibly move into the 6 seed which would give them home court in the second round of the playoffs should the Hornets win their series in the first round. Houston and Dallas have played once this season since McGrady was injured and Alston was traded. The game was played in Houston and the Rockets won 93-86. Dallas is playing great basketball right now with the return of Josh Howard revitalizing them. I don’t see either team resting players a great deal, though Jason Kidd may see some of his minutes given to J.J. Barea. Barea is not much of a drop off except in the rebounding department as he is a remarkably good defender for someone his size. If Yao Ming can have a dominating performance and Battier, Brooks, and Artest are making a decent number of their attempts the Rockets have a terrific chance to take this game on the road against their possible first round opponent.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mark Hendrickson has had a good start to his season pitching a 1.69 ERA in a win in his first start this season. Last April he was pretty good to, going 4-0 with an overall ERA of 2.56. Benson had a 12.60 ERA in his first start of the season this year in a loss. The Orioles have had 49 at bats against Benson had gotten 17 hits and 5 RBI’s against him. In 42 at bats against Hendrickson the Rangers have had only 11 hits, but 6 of those were doubles and they batted in 5 runs. So the Rangers’ Hendrickson gives up more hits to the Orioles on average, but Benson is giving up just as many runs. Neither pitcher had any experience against their opposition last season. I like the Orioles to win this based on Benson having a poor first start and Hendrickson playing well and doing well in April overall. The lines on this game opened up with Texas as the slightest of favorites, but more or less even odds.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Bettors really love Portland at home in this game. A typical money line in Vegas has Portland as the favorite at -320 and Denver as the underdog at +250. The spread is 7.0 points in favor of Portland. Both teams may or may not rest players, but it hardly matters as each team have deep benches with players who have been major contributors in their wins this season. Denver is playing well right now but Portland is playing their best basketball of the season lately. Home court, bench play, and recent form favor Portland in my opinion.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
The Sixers played like a team that did not belong in the playoffs. Boston’s offense was fluid with players moving from side-to-side on the court, setting screens to one another, and moving the ball around through crisp passing rather than dribbling. That is the kind of offense that leads to easy baskets for wide open men. The Sixers’ tended to stand around on the offensive end and wait for the ball to be passed to them before they began to move around. Most of their offense was created in one-on-one situations, with players creating their own shot.
At the end of the half the Celtics appeared to lose interest in the game and began to give up a wide variety of wide open slam dunks and fast break points off of turnovers. The Sixers took a 58-50 lead into the half and maintained a 5 point lead through the third quarter. Paul Pierce did a terrific job keeping Boston in the game as he went 7 for 9 from the three point line. Boston erased their deficit and took a lead early in the 4th quarter as Philadelphia went over the foul limit with 9 minutes remaining. The game was close down the stretch and with 19 seconds to go Philadelphia got possession of the ball and down a point. Miller inbounded the ball to Iguodala who dribbled the clock down to 5 seconds before attempting a drive to the hoop which Pierce and Marbury headed off. Iguodala ended up lobbing up a one handed fall away shot while moving to his left which missed and the Celtics held on to win 100-98. So away from this and on to the next. Day of picks.
1) Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Lapentti – 20 games or more
2) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Cleveland
3) Manchester United @ FC Porto – FC Porto win or draw
4) Villarreal @ Arsenal – 2 goals or fewer
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
7) Washington Capitals win margin vs. Pittsburgh Penguins win margin – Pittsburgh
8) Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks – Houston
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – Baltimore
10) St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks – 5 goals or fewer
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
12) Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers – Portland
20+ for the morning, with an L1 streak what have I got to lose?
Analysis
1) Marat Safin is ranked #21 in the world right now on the ATP Tour. He has not won a single match in 2009 in under 20 games as of yet. He always could pick up his first such match tomorrow against Lapentti. Nicolas Lapentti is currently ranked #98 in the world. He has lost in straight sets and in 19 games or fewer to players lower ranked than himself in 2009 (#142 Mikhail Kukushkin for one). He has also won matches against players ranked higher than Safin in 20 games or more; his round of 64 match against #15 Radek Stepanik which he won on Monday is a good example. In the end if one of these players is having a bad day on the court and the other is in the zone it could easily go over, but I like that Lapentti is playing well in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Currently Kansas City is favored at -115 with the odds on Cleveland being +105, which is pretty close. Sidney Ponson is starting for the Royals in this game. Last year he averaged fewer than one strikeout every 2 innings pitched and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.2. The Indians’ rotation has taken 49 turns at the bat against Ponson and hit 3 home runs, 3 doubles, and 15 singles while batting in 16 runs. In his first start of the season Ponson gave up 4 runs in 6 innings pitched. Aaron Laffey will be pitching for the Indians and he turns 24 today. Against the Royals’ batters he has given up 2 doubles, 12 singles and 3 RBIs in 64 at bats while striking out 11 batters and walking only 6. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.4 last year while having a 4.23 ERA. Not a terrific pitcher but if Cleveland can break out of their hitting slump and score runs against a pitcher they have had success against previously they should have the advantage.
Confidence: W2 streak
3) Manchester United is a terrific side and they will be returning Rio Ferdinand in the back field to pair with Nemanja Vidic on defense. They have not played many games with both players starting in the past month or so and in that time their form has dipped considerably. A 17’ sending off of Paul Scholes led to a 0-2 defeat at Fulham and they have had to rely on late game winners from 17 year old Federico Macheda to win their last two Premier League matches. Adding Ferdinand to the mix will help but it will be difficult for them to transform themselves into the side they will need to be to win this match overnight. FC Porto head the Portuguese Liga and have not lost at home in that league except for once to Leixoes when they had a reserve keeper in the net. FC Porto have never lost to an English team at home in their history as a football club. Manchester United will be looking to equalize the away goal count with at least 2 and will be playing to win but FC Porto knows they only have to outscore Manchester United by one goal to advance to the semi-finals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Evan Longoria will be missing the game tonight for the Rays to attend to some personal matters. The lines opened very close on this game with some books having the matchup at even odds while others had Tampa Bay at -110 and New York at +100. The starting pitchers will be two Andys, Pettite for the Yankees and Sonnanstine for the Rays. They have each started one game so far this season. Sonnanstine recorded a 12.60 ERA in a loss and Pettite had a 1.96 ERA in a win. Historically Pettite has done better against the Rays’ batters than Sonnanstine. Pettite has given up 3 home runs and 16 RBIs in 174 at bats for the Rays while Sonnanstine has been homered 4 times along with 10 runs being batted in in 86 at bats for the Yankees. Pettite gives up more hits on average than Sonnanstine does. Sonnanstine gives up 0.465 total bases per at bat compared to 0.379 total bases per at bat for Pettite. Last year Sonnanstine had a 10.61 ERA against the Yankees with a record of 1-0 and Pettite had a 4.13 ERA against the Rays with a record of 2-2.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Houston is playing to win the Southwest Division title over the San Antonio Spurs, something they have not done in a long time. Dallas will want to end the season on a winning note and possibly move into the 6 seed which would give them home court in the second round of the playoffs should the Hornets win their series in the first round. Houston and Dallas have played once this season since McGrady was injured and Alston was traded. The game was played in Houston and the Rockets won 93-86. Dallas is playing great basketball right now with the return of Josh Howard revitalizing them. I don’t see either team resting players a great deal, though Jason Kidd may see some of his minutes given to J.J. Barea. Barea is not much of a drop off except in the rebounding department as he is a remarkably good defender for someone his size. If Yao Ming can have a dominating performance and Battier, Brooks, and Artest are making a decent number of their attempts the Rockets have a terrific chance to take this game on the road against their possible first round opponent.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mark Hendrickson has had a good start to his season pitching a 1.69 ERA in a win in his first start this season. Last April he was pretty good to, going 4-0 with an overall ERA of 2.56. Benson had a 12.60 ERA in his first start of the season this year in a loss. The Orioles have had 49 at bats against Benson had gotten 17 hits and 5 RBI’s against him. In 42 at bats against Hendrickson the Rangers have had only 11 hits, but 6 of those were doubles and they batted in 5 runs. So the Rangers’ Hendrickson gives up more hits to the Orioles on average, but Benson is giving up just as many runs. Neither pitcher had any experience against their opposition last season. I like the Orioles to win this based on Benson having a poor first start and Hendrickson playing well and doing well in April overall. The lines on this game opened up with Texas as the slightest of favorites, but more or less even odds.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Bettors really love Portland at home in this game. A typical money line in Vegas has Portland as the favorite at -320 and Denver as the underdog at +250. The spread is 7.0 points in favor of Portland. Both teams may or may not rest players, but it hardly matters as each team have deep benches with players who have been major contributors in their wins this season. Denver is playing well right now but Portland is playing their best basketball of the season lately. Home court, bench play, and recent form favor Portland in my opinion.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
April 14th, 2009 Picks
A terrific turnaround as I divorced myself from the past two days to go 3-0-0. My first pick was Ipswich Town to win or draw. The first half ended in a 0-0 scoreless draw but Bristol City midfielder Marvin Elliott received an excellent through ball from Michael McIndoe 6 yards from the goal and booted a goal home. Ipswich Town were completely unable to muster up any offense for most of the game until the striker Giovanni was substituted into the game. Ipswich Town were still unable to find the goal as the match entered injury time, but just before the whistle Bristol City committed a penalty. Giovanni converted the penalty kick and the match ended with Ipswich receiving a miracle point in a 1-1 draw.
My second pick was the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox went up early in the 2nd inning with back to back homers by Dye and Konerko to lead off. The Tigers gained a run back in the bottom of the inning but Quentin, Konerko, and Ramirez batted in four runs in the third inning. The Tigers gained back three runs on a home run by Santiago in the bottom of that inning. The White Sox had an answer again in the fourth inning when Quentin hit a two run homer. The Tigers kept clawing back but the theme of the game was the White Sox scoring after every inning in which the Tigers scored. Quentin and Konerko led the Sox with 4 RBI’s apiece and the White Sox won 10-6.
My third pick was the Milwaukee Bucks. When I originally posted my blog I was under the impression Dwight Howard would be playing limited minutes so when Stan Van Gundy revealed Howard would not dress for the game I locked in the pick. The Magic had a 6 point lead after the first quarter but from there the Bucks grabbed the lead and slowly extended it throughout the game. The Bucks had 25 assists on 35 field goals made while the Magic had 13 assists on 25 field goals. The Bucks also went 8 for 21 from three point range while the Magic went 2 for 18. Marcin Gortat had 10 points and 18 rebounds for the Magic in 43 minutes of playing time. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Safin has more aces
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Barcelona @ Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win or draw
4) Liverpool @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
7) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
8) New York, Atlanta, Colorado vs. Any Other Team – NY, ATL, COL win the lottery
9)) Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati
10) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – 11 runs or more
11) Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics – Jack Cust records more total bases
Analysis
1) Marat Safin generally has a stronger serve averaging 0.758 aces per service game played in 2009. Lleyton Hewitt averages 0.489 aces per service game this year. The match today will be played on a clay surface where fewer aces are generally served. Hewitt and Safin have played twice before on a clay surface, once in 2002 and once in 2001. In 2001 Hewitt had 3 aces to 2 for Safin in their match, while Safin out-aced Hewitt 5-1 in their 2002 match. Safin has generally out-aced Hewitt by large margins in their other matches. Hewitt just finished winning a clay court tournament in Houston on Sunday before traveling to Monaco for this event. Safin is taller and has a greater reach so he may be able to get his racket on the serve even if he does not return it, limiting the number of aces for Hewitt. Here are the ATP Tour profiles and statistics for these two. Peruse at your leisure.
Hewitt's stats.
Safin's stats.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Chicago is the favorite here at -120 with Detroit an underdog at home at +110. The run line favors Detroit at -155 to +135 for Chicago. That puts the chances of a Chicago win by 1 run at 12.2% which is more than reasonable when overall 15% of a teams games are wins by 1 run. John Danks has had a good start with 5 scoreless innings pitched so far this year. Last year he had a great start in April as well but for a shelling at the hands of the Twins. This is Rick Porcello’s second major league start where he has an ERA of 7.20 in five innings against Toronto so far. Against the Tigers’ batters Danks has 8 times as many strikeouts as walks in 106 at bats. He has given up only 2 home runs, or one in 53 batters faced. He had a 2-0 record and 2.41 ERA against Detroit last season.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
3) FC Barcelona dominated Bayern Munich for 45 minutes in taking a 4-0 lead into the half of their first draw in Barcelona. Both sides adjusted their game at the half and the second half ended with the score 4-0. That is evidence of the kind of game Barcelona will play with a 4 goal lead. Bayern Munich return Phillip Lahm, Lucio and possibly Daniel van Buyton, all crucial to their defense. FC Barcelona will be missing Thierry Henry unless the fever keeping him out of practice the day before abates quickly. Barcelona will also be missing Rafael Márquez after he picked up his fifth yellow card in competition. Messi, Eto’o, Xavi, Puyol, and Toure were all rested in their domestic match against Recreativo Huelva so they could all be fairly expected to start in this match. Even with them starting I see Barcelona being unable to match the focus and intensity of a Bayern side playing at home and looking to erase any trace of that 4-0 1st half drubbing.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Currently Philadelphia are a 5.5 point favorite with the money lines having them a favorite at anywhere from -220 to -270. Everybody is working with the assumption Doc Rivers will limit the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and Rondo or perhaps not play them at all. At -200 bettors were picking Philadelphia overwhelmingly. One casino put Philadelphia at -280 and a flood of money poured in on Boston to win with the profit greater than 3:1 for a Celtics win. Four minutes later they adjusted it to -270 for the Sixers. I’ll wait until the pre-game press conference before picking for sure. The Celtics will undoubtedly end up facing the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and after being completely non-competitive with Cleveland on Sunday may be looking to prove they can win. Watch out if Pierce, Rondo, and Allen end up playing major minutes.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) New York, Atlanta, and Colorado have combined odds of 49.9% of being selected to receive the #1 draft pick. NHL rules stipulate a team may only move up 4 spots in the draft from their regular season finish. That means the Los Angeles Kings and Tampa Bay Lightning are the only ‘other teams’ who can possibly get the #1 pick. Their odds of winning are a combined 27.7% chance. At 72.3% the odds of winning this are nearly as good as a -275 money line pick, but do you want to risk your streak on a truly random event?
UPDATE: The wording of the prop has been ‘fixed’ so that it is who will win the lottery meaning the odds are back to 49.9% for ATL, COL, NYI.
UPDATE2: The wording on the prop has been changed back to “who will win the #1 pick” giving you a 73% chance of winning with ATL, COL, and NYI. Be careful as they’ve changed to wording on this back and forth more than once now.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Milwaukee is favored to win at -135 and Cincinnati is the underdog at +120. Cincinnati is favored in the run line at -175 to +155 for Milwaukee. That puts the odds on a win by 1 run for Milwaukee at 17.7% which is a bit high and favors a win by Cincinnati. Milwaukee is starting Manny Parra who has not done well against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting a home run for every 13 batters facing Parra. Parra had an 8.27 ERA against the Reds last season and has started this season with a poor outing against San Francisco. Bronson Arroyo has a large amount of experience against the Brewers with a home run rate about half of Parra’s against the Reds. Arroyo had a 3.65 ERA against the Brewers last season, but gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Mets in his first start of the season. Both pitchers are capable of throwing strikes, Arroyo struck out 3 times as many batters as he walked last season and Parra struck out twice as many.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Jack Cust has recorded 6 total bases in 8 at bats against Daisuke Matsuzaka with a home run and two singles. David Ortiz has recorded 1 total base in 2 at bats against Eveland. So far this year Ortiz is batting .208, recording 5 total bases in 24 at bats. Jack Cust is batting .381 with 15 total bases recorded in 21 at bats. Matsuzaka has an ERA of 6.50 in one start this season against Tampa Bay and Eveland has an ERA of 4.50 in his sole start against the Angels.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
My second pick was the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox went up early in the 2nd inning with back to back homers by Dye and Konerko to lead off. The Tigers gained a run back in the bottom of the inning but Quentin, Konerko, and Ramirez batted in four runs in the third inning. The Tigers gained back three runs on a home run by Santiago in the bottom of that inning. The White Sox had an answer again in the fourth inning when Quentin hit a two run homer. The Tigers kept clawing back but the theme of the game was the White Sox scoring after every inning in which the Tigers scored. Quentin and Konerko led the Sox with 4 RBI’s apiece and the White Sox won 10-6.
My third pick was the Milwaukee Bucks. When I originally posted my blog I was under the impression Dwight Howard would be playing limited minutes so when Stan Van Gundy revealed Howard would not dress for the game I locked in the pick. The Magic had a 6 point lead after the first quarter but from there the Bucks grabbed the lead and slowly extended it throughout the game. The Bucks had 25 assists on 35 field goals made while the Magic had 13 assists on 25 field goals. The Bucks also went 8 for 21 from three point range while the Magic went 2 for 18. Marcin Gortat had 10 points and 18 rebounds for the Magic in 43 minutes of playing time. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Safin has more aces
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Barcelona @ Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win or draw
4) Liverpool @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
7) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
8) New York, Atlanta, Colorado vs. Any Other Team – NY, ATL, COL win the lottery
9)) Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati
10) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – 11 runs or more
11) Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics – Jack Cust records more total bases
Analysis
1) Marat Safin generally has a stronger serve averaging 0.758 aces per service game played in 2009. Lleyton Hewitt averages 0.489 aces per service game this year. The match today will be played on a clay surface where fewer aces are generally served. Hewitt and Safin have played twice before on a clay surface, once in 2002 and once in 2001. In 2001 Hewitt had 3 aces to 2 for Safin in their match, while Safin out-aced Hewitt 5-1 in their 2002 match. Safin has generally out-aced Hewitt by large margins in their other matches. Hewitt just finished winning a clay court tournament in Houston on Sunday before traveling to Monaco for this event. Safin is taller and has a greater reach so he may be able to get his racket on the serve even if he does not return it, limiting the number of aces for Hewitt. Here are the ATP Tour profiles and statistics for these two. Peruse at your leisure.
Hewitt's stats.
Safin's stats.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Chicago is the favorite here at -120 with Detroit an underdog at home at +110. The run line favors Detroit at -155 to +135 for Chicago. That puts the chances of a Chicago win by 1 run at 12.2% which is more than reasonable when overall 15% of a teams games are wins by 1 run. John Danks has had a good start with 5 scoreless innings pitched so far this year. Last year he had a great start in April as well but for a shelling at the hands of the Twins. This is Rick Porcello’s second major league start where he has an ERA of 7.20 in five innings against Toronto so far. Against the Tigers’ batters Danks has 8 times as many strikeouts as walks in 106 at bats. He has given up only 2 home runs, or one in 53 batters faced. He had a 2-0 record and 2.41 ERA against Detroit last season.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
3) FC Barcelona dominated Bayern Munich for 45 minutes in taking a 4-0 lead into the half of their first draw in Barcelona. Both sides adjusted their game at the half and the second half ended with the score 4-0. That is evidence of the kind of game Barcelona will play with a 4 goal lead. Bayern Munich return Phillip Lahm, Lucio and possibly Daniel van Buyton, all crucial to their defense. FC Barcelona will be missing Thierry Henry unless the fever keeping him out of practice the day before abates quickly. Barcelona will also be missing Rafael Márquez after he picked up his fifth yellow card in competition. Messi, Eto’o, Xavi, Puyol, and Toure were all rested in their domestic match against Recreativo Huelva so they could all be fairly expected to start in this match. Even with them starting I see Barcelona being unable to match the focus and intensity of a Bayern side playing at home and looking to erase any trace of that 4-0 1st half drubbing.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Currently Philadelphia are a 5.5 point favorite with the money lines having them a favorite at anywhere from -220 to -270. Everybody is working with the assumption Doc Rivers will limit the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and Rondo or perhaps not play them at all. At -200 bettors were picking Philadelphia overwhelmingly. One casino put Philadelphia at -280 and a flood of money poured in on Boston to win with the profit greater than 3:1 for a Celtics win. Four minutes later they adjusted it to -270 for the Sixers. I’ll wait until the pre-game press conference before picking for sure. The Celtics will undoubtedly end up facing the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and after being completely non-competitive with Cleveland on Sunday may be looking to prove they can win. Watch out if Pierce, Rondo, and Allen end up playing major minutes.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) New York, Atlanta, and Colorado have combined odds of 49.9% of being selected to receive the #1 draft pick. NHL rules stipulate a team may only move up 4 spots in the draft from their regular season finish. That means the Los Angeles Kings and Tampa Bay Lightning are the only ‘other teams’ who can possibly get the #1 pick. Their odds of winning are a combined 27.7% chance. At 72.3% the odds of winning this are nearly as good as a -275 money line pick, but do you want to risk your streak on a truly random event?
UPDATE: The wording of the prop has been ‘fixed’ so that it is who will win the lottery meaning the odds are back to 49.9% for ATL, COL, NYI.
UPDATE2: The wording on the prop has been changed back to “who will win the #1 pick” giving you a 73% chance of winning with ATL, COL, and NYI. Be careful as they’ve changed to wording on this back and forth more than once now.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Milwaukee is favored to win at -135 and Cincinnati is the underdog at +120. Cincinnati is favored in the run line at -175 to +155 for Milwaukee. That puts the odds on a win by 1 run for Milwaukee at 17.7% which is a bit high and favors a win by Cincinnati. Milwaukee is starting Manny Parra who has not done well against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting a home run for every 13 batters facing Parra. Parra had an 8.27 ERA against the Reds last season and has started this season with a poor outing against San Francisco. Bronson Arroyo has a large amount of experience against the Brewers with a home run rate about half of Parra’s against the Reds. Arroyo had a 3.65 ERA against the Brewers last season, but gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Mets in his first start of the season. Both pitchers are capable of throwing strikes, Arroyo struck out 3 times as many batters as he walked last season and Parra struck out twice as many.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Jack Cust has recorded 6 total bases in 8 at bats against Daisuke Matsuzaka with a home run and two singles. David Ortiz has recorded 1 total base in 2 at bats against Eveland. So far this year Ortiz is batting .208, recording 5 total bases in 24 at bats. Jack Cust is batting .381 with 15 total bases recorded in 21 at bats. Matsuzaka has an ERA of 6.50 in one start this season against Tampa Bay and Eveland has an ERA of 4.50 in his sole start against the Angels.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
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