April 17th, 2009 Picks

Yuck, 2-2-1 on the day. My first pick was for Johnson or Immelman to card a lower first 9 score. It started off well enough with Johnson and Immelman keeping pace with Villegas as each player had a bogey in the first two holes. Over the next five holes Immelman and Johnson had two birdies apiece while Villegas saved par time and again with excellent long putts, but failed to pick up birdies with not so excellent short putts. Johnson and Immelman were each up two strokes on Villegas going into the penultimate hole of the prop. Villegas hit par again while Johnson bogeyed and Immelman picked up his third birdie of the round. On the final hole, a par 4, Villegas missed the green with his second shot and two-putted from 10 feet away to card his second bogey to go along with 7 pars while Immelman carded his fourth birdie to finish five strokes ahead of Villegas and four strokes ahead of Johnson.

My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.

My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7^th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.

My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9^th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.

My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.

1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Paços de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora – Paços de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona

Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less