April 16th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. My first pick was 20 games or more played. The match was a bit iffy at first as Lapentti lost his first service game and was down 2-0. He came back, however, and forced a tie break on the first set which he won. When Safin won the first game of the second set it was all but over, with 14 games having been played and Lapentti needing to win 6 to end the match. In the end Safin won the second set 6-2 and lost the match to Lapentti 6-7 in the third set, with 34 games having been played.

My second pick was the Cleveland Indians. They went up early 1-0 when Sizemore hit a single to drive Gaffanino home. Another single by Garko in the top of 6^th put Cleveland up 2-0. The lead was brief as DeJesus grounded out in the bottom of the 6^th but allowing Crisp to make the run from third base to home. Cleveland relieved Laffey at that point and after a strikeout put in Jensen Lewis as their second reliever. Lewis made the unfortunate mistake of walking the first two batters he faced to load the bases and walking the next batter to put another run in for the Royals. The Indians were fortunate to get out of the inning with the score tied 2-2. Kansas City went to their bullpen in the 7^th inning and Cleveland was able to knock in three more runs. An RBI in the 7^th and a solo home run for Kansas City made the score 5-4 but Kerry Wood was able to retire three straight in the 9^th inning and Cleveland held on to win 5-4.

My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. It was a bad pick to say the least. Baltimore was up 3-1 going into the bottom of the 3^rd and it all went downhill from there. Kinsler hit a solo home run and Byrd and Blalock had a pair of RBI’s to give the Rangers a 4-3 lead. In the 4^th inning Andrus scored on an error at home, and Byrd recorded another RBI as Hendrickson was relieved with the bases loaded at that point. Cruz hit a grand slam with the next at bat, Andrus hit a triple for another RBI, and Kinsler batted in another run as the Rangers raced out to a 12-3 lead. There was no relief for the Orioles as Byrd hit his 4^th RBI of the night in the next inning. In the end Kinsler, Cruz, and Byrd recorded 13 RBI’s on the night and the Orioles went down in flames 19-6. So on to the picks.

1) Villegas vs. Johnson or Immelman – Johnson or Immelman card a lower first 9 score.
2) Paris Saint-Germain @ Dynamo Kiev – 2 goals or fewer
3) Jim Furyk vs. Aaron Baddeley – Baddeley cards a lower first round score
4) Adam Wainwright SO vs. Chicago Cubs hits off Wainwright – Wainwright SO
5) Hamburg SV @ Manchester City – Hamburg SV win or draw
6) Boston Bruins win margin vs. Detroit Red Wings win margin – Boston win margin
7) Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Chicago
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers record fewer errors
10) Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more

Analysis
1) This is a prop to see who will card a lower score on the first 9 holes, which is the back 9 for this group. The course is Harbour Town. Villegas has an average back 9 score on this course of +1.2 and a median score of +2. Johnson’s average back 9 score is +0.9 with a median score of +0.5. Immelman has an average back 9 score of -0.1 with a median score of even par. As far as the range of scores carded Villegas has shot between -3 and +4, Johnson between -2 and +5, and Immelman between -2 and +2. Johnson’s scoring average in all events this year is 70.01, while Villegas’ is 70.64 and Immelman’s is 71.78. Villegas just got done with a solid four rounds at Augusta while Johnson and Immelman both missed the cut at the Masters. Overall this year Villegas has three top 10 finishes, while missing 2 of 8 cuts. Johnson has 3 top 10 finishes including a 1st place finish, while missing 3 of 9 cuts. Immelman hasn’t finished in the top 10 so far this year but has only missed one cut in 7 events. I like the historical performance of Immelman and Johnson on this course over the recent performance of Villegas at the Masters. I would say there is a 12.2% chance for a push, a 35.7% for a Villegas win and a 52.1% chance for a win by Johnson or Immelman.
UPDATE: Thanks GoKings for the heads up, Immelman did make the cut at this years Masters, he finished at 2 under, in 20^th place.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

2) These two sides played the first leg of their UEFA Cup tie to a 0-0 draw in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain have conceded 1 goal in their last 7 UEFA cup matches. Dynamo Kiev have conceded 5 goals in their last 5 Cup matches. Both sides will be trying to score, but after the first goal that side will defend their lead tenaciously. Paris Saint-Germain will be missing strikers Mateja Kezman who was a substitute in the last match against Dynamo Kiev, but will return Sylvain Armand on defense. Dynamo Kiev’s captain, Taras Mikhalik, will be missed at midfield as he was the first line of defense and Kiev may be particularly vulnerable. Carlos Correa is also a doubt for the match, though he has not been an integral part of their flow on the field. Other injuries or doubts for this match involve players who did not play in the 0-0 draw previously.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) So far this year Adam Wainwright has pitched in two games. In the first he struckout 7 batters while the Pittsburgh Pirates got 4 hits off of him. In the second game Wainwright struck out 4 batters while the Houston Astros got 4 hits off of him. Last season Wainwright pitched two games against the games, one at Wrigley Field. In both games he struckout 5 batters while giving up 4 hits. One thing to keep in mind is that a batter reaching base on fielder’s choice is not recorded as a hit. Against starting pitchers this season the Cubs have 41 hits in 40¹/₃ innings, but have averaged 1 hit or less against those pitchers in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Cubs have only struck out more than they have hit against a starting pitcher once this season. Thanks to fredbailey for pointing out that last fact.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) I like the Bruins in this one because the same factors favoring Pittsburgh winning by more goals yesterday also favor Boston here, but even more so. First are the goalie matchups. Boston starts Tim Thomas who has a nice 2.10 GAA with 93.3 SV%. Montreal starts Carey Price with a 2.83 GAA and 91.5 SV%. Boston averages a goal scored for every 9.15 shots taken on goal and Montreal averages a goal for every 9.88 shots. Boston outscored Montreal by 10 goals in going 5-0-1 during the regular season. Detroit is looking to start Chris Osgood with a 3.09 GAA and 88.7 SV%. Columbus starts Steve Mason with a 2.29 GAA and 91.6 SV%. Detroit averages a goal for every 10 shots taken while Columbus averages a goal for every 10.5 shots taken. During the regular season Detroit outscored Columbus by 1 goal while going 3-2-1 in those matchups. That number is so small because they suffered an 8-2 defeat to the Blue Jackets in Detroit with Osgood giving up 7 of those goals on 23 shots. In their victories Detroit’s average margin of victory was 3 goals.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

7) The Chicago White Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008. In two of those games John Danks pitched, recording an ERA of 0.69 in thirteen innings pitched. The White Sox won both games by scores of 6-0 and 5-1. In all four games against the Rays, including the playoffs, Danks had an ERA of 2.42 in 26 innings pitched and the Sox were 3-1. In the third game the Sox won at Tropicana Field last year Jeff Niemann pitched 3.1 innings and gave up 7 runs, five of them earned runs. The Sox hit two home runs, and Niemann walked in another run by hitting a batter with a pitch and the bases loaded. The Sox won that game 9-2. So far this season Niemann has a 10.13 ERA in 5¹/₃ innings pitched, but keep in mind his ERA was 45.00 in the first inning he pitched and 2.08 over the next 4¹/₃ innings. Danks has a 0.00 ERA so far this season in 6 innings pitched. Evan Longoria is out for the Rays for this game as he is still attending to personal matters.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

10) Anaheim and San Jose have played one another 6 times this season with 5 goals or fewer being scored 5 times. They played each other twice in the last week of the season with 7 and 5 goals being scored. Anaheim won 5-2 in San Jose and the Sharks won 3-2 in Anaheim. Jonas Hiller was in net for Anaheim in both games while Nabokov and Boucher were in net for the Sharks in the first and second games, respectively. Anaheim closed out the season strong scoring 3.9 goals per game in their final 10 games. Hiller will be starting for the Ducks in this first playoff game after strong performances in the regular season while the Sharks will rely primarily on Evgeni Nabokov. Both goalies average better than .915 on saves and under 2.5 on goals against.
Confidence: W1 streak or less