click it
A bit better on the day at 2-0-1. My first pick was Davis Love III to card a lower front 9 score. Davis Love III took a lead early as he set himself up with a 30 foot chip for eagle that became a three foot putt for birdie on the 2nd hole. Boo Weekley hit a bogey on the 3rd to go down two strokes. Both bogeyed the 4th hole, and Weekley hit a birdie on the 5th. Love III extended his lead to three strokes nonetheless by making a 26 foot putt for eagle. Going into the 8th hole Weekley was still down three strokes. He was in position to hold par but a two-putt from 8 feet out on the 8th, and a four-putt on the 9th lead to a bogey and double bogey. Davis Love III finished with a pair of pars and carded a 2-under 34 on the front nine, while Weekley finished with a 4-over 40. As a side-note Weekley carded a back 9 one stroke better than Love III.
My second pick was Paul Casey to card a lower 2nd round score. It was a very close match with Casey hitting two birdies, three bogeys, and 7 pars through the first 12 holes and Zach Johnson hitting two birdies, a bogey, a double bogey, and 8 pars through the first 12. From there Zach Johnson began to falter as he dropped behind a stroke or more on 5 of the final 6 holes. Casey hit two birdies, one on the par-5 15th and one on the par-4 18th as he finally started to drop his shorter putts. Zach Johnson hit into the water on the 14th hole to score a double bogey to go along with two other bogeys. Casey finished with a 70 while Johnson finished the round with a 76.
My final pick was the Flyers to score more goals than the Hurricanes in their respective games. The Flyers scored 1 goal in the first period, but the Hurricanes put in a final minute goal to also score in the 1st of their game. The Hurricanes were held scoreless thereafter but the Devils could not get past Cam Ward. Philadelphia scored early in the 3rd period for their second goal, but gave up a late power play goal to the Penguins. Both games went into overtime with the Flyers having scored 2 to 1 goal for the Hurricanes. Philadelphia was hit with a couple of penalties and could not stand firm against the Penguins in the resulting 5 on 3 situation. Carolina was aggressive from the start in their OT, and coupled with two injuries to the Devils’ front lines were able to score a goal to win their game. The prop ended in a push with both teams scoring two goals. So, we find ourselves again at the time where we go to the picks.
1) Aaron Baddeley vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bolton Wanderers vs. Portsmouth – Portsmouth win
3) Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
4) Derrick Rose vs. Paul Pierce – Pierce pts.
5) Brian Gay vs. Todd Hamilton – Gay cards a lower third round score
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Mo Williams – Hamilton pts.
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins – Los Angeles
9) Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
10) Jeff Gordon vs. Tony Stewart – Gordon has a better final position
11) Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
12) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Detroit
13) Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers – Portland
14) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann – Soszynski
Analysis
1) Both of these players have won this event in the past, Aaron Baddeley in 2006 and Justin Leonard in 2002. Leonard is 8-5-1 in this prop against Baddeley from 2006-present, yet he has placed lower than Baddeley consistently. That suggests to me it is the back 9 which Leonard has problems with. Looking at Baddeley’s second round he hit quite a few mid-to-long range iron shots to within 10 feet of the hole. That is very good, but even for Tiger Woods is considered lucky to happen on consecutive holes. I think Leonard will do better sinking his mid-range putts and Baddeley will be forced to two-putt for par more often. Each player’s median score is -1 on the front 9 from rounds played in the years 2001-present. Baddeley’s average score is -1.3 and he has carded scores ranging from -6 to +2. Leonard’s average score is -1.0 and his scores range from -5 to +2. I think Baddeley scores -2 at best while Leonard has a good chance to score -2 or -3. Assuming Baddeley has better odds of hitting 2 under, but worse odds of hitting any other score between -4 and +2, I’d say Baddeley’s chances of winning are 40.6%, Leonard’s chances are 41.8%, and the probablity of a push are 17.6%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Portsmouth sit at even odds to win this game, while a win or a draw for Bolton Wanderers are at 25% and 29%, respectively. That gives Bolton Wanderers a slight edge odds-wise, though either golf pick holds better odds for not losing. Both teams are at full strength though Danny Shittu is a major doubt for Bolton on defense. Bolton will not want to find themselves down at half time as they have not won or drawn a match on the road when in that position. Bolton Wanderers are 0-2-3 (W-D-L) in their past 5 away matches, drawing to West Bromwich Albion and Blackburn Rovers, while losing to Stoke City, Chelsea, and Everton. Portsmouth are 2-1-2 in their past 5 home matches, defeating Everton and Manchester City, while losing to Chelsea and Liverpool and drawing to West Bromwich Albion. Bolton were missing Glenn Johnson on defense and Sean Davis up front in the West Brom match. Both players have started 24 to 25 matches this season. I think Portsmouth has strong victories against stronger teams than Bolton, while Bolton have not managed to win on the road at all recently, managing draws against sides with worse home form than Portsmouth.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Derrick Rose averaged 23.1 points and assists during the regular season and had a very nice finish with a number of terrific games. He averaged 18.7 points and 7.6 assists in the last 10 games of the season. Paul Pierce averaged 20.5 points during the season and 21.9 points in the last 10 games he played. During the season the Bulls and the Celtics played one another three times. Rose had 19 points and assists in all three meetings and Pierce had 14, 16, and 37 points. In the low scoring games Kevin Garnett played and Pierce was in for less than 35 minutes in big victories for the Celtics. He played 39 minutes without Kevin Garnett in the 37 point game. Pierce is the leader of the Celtics and their number one scoring option without Garnett on the floor. This is Rose’s first playoff game and there is a chance his inexperience could lead to turnovers and forcing bad shots. Rajon Rondo is a good defender with playoff experience so the 19 points and assists for Rose against the Celtics could be his ceiling.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Brian Gay and Todd Hamilton have hit rounds of 66, 66, 67, and 68 between them so far at Harbour Town this year. The 68 and 66 are the best Hamilton has ever scored in playing this event from 2004 till now. Gay has carded a round of 66 once before and 67 three times from 2001 till now. Gay’s average score is 71.1 and his median score is 71. Hamilton’s average score is 72.8 and his median score is 73.5. This year and in 2008 Gay has missed the cut in 11 events, finished in the top 10 seven times and won 1 event. In that same time Hamilton has missed the cut in 18 events and has not finished in the top 10 a single time. Gay has proven he has the potential to play at this level in the past two years. Hamilton looks to be overachieving, where even if he hits a 75 today he looks to put in his best performance of the past two years.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) What can I say here other than that the team with home court advantage has a great advantage in Game 1. Maybe it’s that the road team knows they’ll have another chance at stealing the next game and even then can even the series up at home and ride that momentum to a road win in Game 5. Whatever it is Dallas’ best chance lies in outstanding play by Jason Terry and Josh Howard. If Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea can add strong games on top of that they could win here. The Spurs are missing Manu Ginobili but it is not an unfamiliar position for them to be in and they’ve won without him plenty during the season. More likely than not Dallas’ younger players will have so-so games in a loss.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) The pitching matchup in this game features Edwin Jackson for the Tigers and Erik Bedard for the Mariners. Jackson has pitched 131/3 innings this year and given up 5 earned runs, 4 to the Texas Rangers, and 1 to the Toronto Blue Jays. Bedard has pitched 131/3 innings and given up 3 earned runs, all to the Minnesota Twins. Last year Bedard had an ERA of 1.80 against the Tigers and Jackson had an ERA of 0.60 against the Mariners and both pitchers won the decisions when they pitched. The batter v. pitcher stats show the Mariners with a career slugging average of .442 against Jackson and the Tigers with a slugging average of .458. Jackson’s strikeout to walk ratio is 4.0 against the Mariners while Bedard’s is 2.0 against the Tigers. It will be difficult for the Tigers to win on the road in this game against Mariners team improved from last year but Jackson is the pitcher on the mound to do it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) In the Western Conference the team with home court advantage ends up winning the series something like 75% of the time. That team wins game 1 at least that often. The Blazers are continuing to play their best basketball of the season. Yao Ming will provide matchup problems, as he does for any opponent. Scola, Battier, and Artest will need to have great nights offensively to keep up with Portland’s offense, and a strong defensive night will help with that. In the end it will probably be Portland’s bench that extends their leads and keeps the game out of reach for the Rockets, even if the Rockets play an exceptional game.
Confidence: W7 streak or les
And So It Goes....
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
April 17th, 2009 Picks
Yuck, 2-2-1 on the day. My first pick was for Johnson or Immelman to card a lower first 9 score. It started off well enough with Johnson and Immelman keeping pace with Villegas as each player had a bogey in the first two holes. Over the next five holes Immelman and Johnson had two birdies apiece while Villegas saved par time and again with excellent long putts, but failed to pick up birdies with not so excellent short putts. Johnson and Immelman were each up two strokes on Villegas going into the penultimate hole of the prop. Villegas hit par again while Johnson bogeyed and Immelman picked up his third birdie of the round. On the final hole, a par 4, Villegas missed the green with his second shot and two-putted from 10 feet away to card his second bogey to go along with 7 pars while Immelman carded his fourth birdie to finish five strokes ahead of Villegas and four strokes ahead of Johnson.
My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.
My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.
My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.
My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Paços de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora – Paços de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.
My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.
My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.
My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Paços de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora – Paços de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Thursday, April 16, 2009
April 16th, 2009 Picks
2-1-0 today. My first pick was 20 games or more played. The match was a bit iffy at first as Lapentti lost his first service game and was down 2-0. He came back, however, and forced a tie break on the first set which he won. When Safin won the first game of the second set it was all but over, with 14 games having been played and Lapentti needing to win 6 to end the match. In the end Safin won the second set 6-2 and lost the match to Lapentti 6-7 in the third set, with 34 games having been played.
My second pick was the Cleveland Indians. They went up early 1-0 when Sizemore hit a single to drive Gaffanino home. Another single by Garko in the top of 6th put Cleveland up 2-0. The lead was brief as DeJesus grounded out in the bottom of the 6th but allowing Crisp to make the run from third base to home. Cleveland relieved Laffey at that point and after a strikeout put in Jensen Lewis as their second reliever. Lewis made the unfortunate mistake of walking the first two batters he faced to load the bases and walking the next batter to put another run in for the Royals. The Indians were fortunate to get out of the inning with the score tied 2-2. Kansas City went to their bullpen in the 7th inning and Cleveland was able to knock in three more runs. An RBI in the 7th and a solo home run for Kansas City made the score 5-4 but Kerry Wood was able to retire three straight in the 9th inning and Cleveland held on to win 5-4.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. It was a bad pick to say the least. Baltimore was up 3-1 going into the bottom of the 3rd and it all went downhill from there. Kinsler hit a solo home run and Byrd and Blalock had a pair of RBI’s to give the Rangers a 4-3 lead. In the 4th inning Andrus scored on an error at home, and Byrd recorded another RBI as Hendrickson was relieved with the bases loaded at that point. Cruz hit a grand slam with the next at bat, Andrus hit a triple for another RBI, and Kinsler batted in another run as the Rangers raced out to a 12-3 lead. There was no relief for the Orioles as Byrd hit his 4th RBI of the night in the next inning. In the end Kinsler, Cruz, and Byrd recorded 13 RBI’s on the night and the Orioles went down in flames 19-6. So on to the picks.
1) Villegas vs. Johnson or Immelman – Johnson or Immelman card a lower first 9 score.
2) Paris Saint-Germain @ Dynamo Kiev – 2 goals or fewer
3) Jim Furyk vs. Aaron Baddeley – Baddeley cards a lower first round score
4) Adam Wainwright SO vs. Chicago Cubs hits off Wainwright – Wainwright SO
5) Hamburg SV @ Manchester City – Hamburg SV win or draw
6) Boston Bruins win margin vs. Detroit Red Wings win margin – Boston win margin
7) Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Chicago
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers record fewer errors
10) Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more
Analysis
1) This is a prop to see who will card a lower score on the first 9 holes, which is the back 9 for this group. The course is Harbour Town. Villegas has an average back 9 score on this course of +1.2 and a median score of +2. Johnson’s average back 9 score is +0.9 with a median score of +0.5. Immelman has an average back 9 score of -0.1 with a median score of even par. As far as the range of scores carded Villegas has shot between -3 and +4, Johnson between -2 and +5, and Immelman between -2 and +2. Johnson’s scoring average in all events this year is 70.01, while Villegas’ is 70.64 and Immelman’s is 71.78. Villegas just got done with a solid four rounds at Augusta while Johnson and Immelman both missed the cut at the Masters. Overall this year Villegas has three top 10 finishes, while missing 2 of 8 cuts. Johnson has 3 top 10 finishes including a 1st place finish, while missing 3 of 9 cuts. Immelman hasn’t finished in the top 10 so far this year but has only missed one cut in 7 events. I like the historical performance of Immelman and Johnson on this course over the recent performance of Villegas at the Masters. I would say there is a 12.2% chance for a push, a 35.7% for a Villegas win and a 52.1% chance for a win by Johnson or Immelman.
UPDATE: Thanks GoKings for the heads up, Immelman did make the cut at this years Masters, he finished at 2 under, in 20th place.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) These two sides played the first leg of their UEFA Cup tie to a 0-0 draw in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain have conceded 1 goal in their last 7 UEFA cup matches. Dynamo Kiev have conceded 5 goals in their last 5 Cup matches. Both sides will be trying to score, but after the first goal that side will defend their lead tenaciously. Paris Saint-Germain will be missing strikers Mateja Kezman who was a substitute in the last match against Dynamo Kiev, but will return Sylvain Armand on defense. Dynamo Kiev’s captain, Taras Mikhalik, will be missed at midfield as he was the first line of defense and Kiev may be particularly vulnerable. Carlos Correa is also a doubt for the match, though he has not been an integral part of their flow on the field. Other injuries or doubts for this match involve players who did not play in the 0-0 draw previously.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) So far this year Adam Wainwright has pitched in two games. In the first he struckout 7 batters while the Pittsburgh Pirates got 4 hits off of him. In the second game Wainwright struck out 4 batters while the Houston Astros got 4 hits off of him. Last season Wainwright pitched two games against the games, one at Wrigley Field. In both games he struckout 5 batters while giving up 4 hits. One thing to keep in mind is that a batter reaching base on fielder’s choice is not recorded as a hit. Against starting pitchers this season the Cubs have 41 hits in 401/3 innings, but have averaged 1 hit or less against those pitchers in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Cubs have only struck out more than they have hit against a starting pitcher once this season. Thanks to fredbailey for pointing out that last fact.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) I like the Bruins in this one because the same factors favoring Pittsburgh winning by more goals yesterday also favor Boston here, but even more so. First are the goalie matchups. Boston starts Tim Thomas who has a nice 2.10 GAA with 93.3 SV%. Montreal starts Carey Price with a 2.83 GAA and 91.5 SV%. Boston averages a goal scored for every 9.15 shots taken on goal and Montreal averages a goal for every 9.88 shots. Boston outscored Montreal by 10 goals in going 5-0-1 during the regular season. Detroit is looking to start Chris Osgood with a 3.09 GAA and 88.7 SV%. Columbus starts Steve Mason with a 2.29 GAA and 91.6 SV%. Detroit averages a goal for every 10 shots taken while Columbus averages a goal for every 10.5 shots taken. During the regular season Detroit outscored Columbus by 1 goal while going 3-2-1 in those matchups. That number is so small because they suffered an 8-2 defeat to the Blue Jackets in Detroit with Osgood giving up 7 of those goals on 23 shots. In their victories Detroit’s average margin of victory was 3 goals.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) The Chicago White Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008. In two of those games John Danks pitched, recording an ERA of 0.69 in thirteen innings pitched. The White Sox won both games by scores of 6-0 and 5-1. In all four games against the Rays, including the playoffs, Danks had an ERA of 2.42 in 26 innings pitched and the Sox were 3-1. In the third game the Sox won at Tropicana Field last year Jeff Niemann pitched 3.1 innings and gave up 7 runs, five of them earned runs. The Sox hit two home runs, and Niemann walked in another run by hitting a batter with a pitch and the bases loaded. The Sox won that game 9-2. So far this season Niemann has a 10.13 ERA in 51/3 innings pitched, but keep in mind his ERA was 45.00 in the first inning he pitched and 2.08 over the next 41/3 innings. Danks has a 0.00 ERA so far this season in 6 innings pitched. Evan Longoria is out for the Rays for this game as he is still attending to personal matters.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) Anaheim and San Jose have played one another 6 times this season with 5 goals or fewer being scored 5 times. They played each other twice in the last week of the season with 7 and 5 goals being scored. Anaheim won 5-2 in San Jose and the Sharks won 3-2 in Anaheim. Jonas Hiller was in net for Anaheim in both games while Nabokov and Boucher were in net for the Sharks in the first and second games, respectively. Anaheim closed out the season strong scoring 3.9 goals per game in their final 10 games. Hiller will be starting for the Ducks in this first playoff game after strong performances in the regular season while the Sharks will rely primarily on Evgeni Nabokov. Both goalies average better than .915 on saves and under 2.5 on goals against.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My second pick was the Cleveland Indians. They went up early 1-0 when Sizemore hit a single to drive Gaffanino home. Another single by Garko in the top of 6th put Cleveland up 2-0. The lead was brief as DeJesus grounded out in the bottom of the 6th but allowing Crisp to make the run from third base to home. Cleveland relieved Laffey at that point and after a strikeout put in Jensen Lewis as their second reliever. Lewis made the unfortunate mistake of walking the first two batters he faced to load the bases and walking the next batter to put another run in for the Royals. The Indians were fortunate to get out of the inning with the score tied 2-2. Kansas City went to their bullpen in the 7th inning and Cleveland was able to knock in three more runs. An RBI in the 7th and a solo home run for Kansas City made the score 5-4 but Kerry Wood was able to retire three straight in the 9th inning and Cleveland held on to win 5-4.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. It was a bad pick to say the least. Baltimore was up 3-1 going into the bottom of the 3rd and it all went downhill from there. Kinsler hit a solo home run and Byrd and Blalock had a pair of RBI’s to give the Rangers a 4-3 lead. In the 4th inning Andrus scored on an error at home, and Byrd recorded another RBI as Hendrickson was relieved with the bases loaded at that point. Cruz hit a grand slam with the next at bat, Andrus hit a triple for another RBI, and Kinsler batted in another run as the Rangers raced out to a 12-3 lead. There was no relief for the Orioles as Byrd hit his 4th RBI of the night in the next inning. In the end Kinsler, Cruz, and Byrd recorded 13 RBI’s on the night and the Orioles went down in flames 19-6. So on to the picks.
1) Villegas vs. Johnson or Immelman – Johnson or Immelman card a lower first 9 score.
2) Paris Saint-Germain @ Dynamo Kiev – 2 goals or fewer
3) Jim Furyk vs. Aaron Baddeley – Baddeley cards a lower first round score
4) Adam Wainwright SO vs. Chicago Cubs hits off Wainwright – Wainwright SO
5) Hamburg SV @ Manchester City – Hamburg SV win or draw
6) Boston Bruins win margin vs. Detroit Red Wings win margin – Boston win margin
7) Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – Chicago
8) Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers record fewer errors
10) Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks – 6 goals or more
Analysis
1) This is a prop to see who will card a lower score on the first 9 holes, which is the back 9 for this group. The course is Harbour Town. Villegas has an average back 9 score on this course of +1.2 and a median score of +2. Johnson’s average back 9 score is +0.9 with a median score of +0.5. Immelman has an average back 9 score of -0.1 with a median score of even par. As far as the range of scores carded Villegas has shot between -3 and +4, Johnson between -2 and +5, and Immelman between -2 and +2. Johnson’s scoring average in all events this year is 70.01, while Villegas’ is 70.64 and Immelman’s is 71.78. Villegas just got done with a solid four rounds at Augusta while Johnson and Immelman both missed the cut at the Masters. Overall this year Villegas has three top 10 finishes, while missing 2 of 8 cuts. Johnson has 3 top 10 finishes including a 1st place finish, while missing 3 of 9 cuts. Immelman hasn’t finished in the top 10 so far this year but has only missed one cut in 7 events. I like the historical performance of Immelman and Johnson on this course over the recent performance of Villegas at the Masters. I would say there is a 12.2% chance for a push, a 35.7% for a Villegas win and a 52.1% chance for a win by Johnson or Immelman.
UPDATE: Thanks GoKings for the heads up, Immelman did make the cut at this years Masters, he finished at 2 under, in 20th place.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) These two sides played the first leg of their UEFA Cup tie to a 0-0 draw in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain have conceded 1 goal in their last 7 UEFA cup matches. Dynamo Kiev have conceded 5 goals in their last 5 Cup matches. Both sides will be trying to score, but after the first goal that side will defend their lead tenaciously. Paris Saint-Germain will be missing strikers Mateja Kezman who was a substitute in the last match against Dynamo Kiev, but will return Sylvain Armand on defense. Dynamo Kiev’s captain, Taras Mikhalik, will be missed at midfield as he was the first line of defense and Kiev may be particularly vulnerable. Carlos Correa is also a doubt for the match, though he has not been an integral part of their flow on the field. Other injuries or doubts for this match involve players who did not play in the 0-0 draw previously.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) So far this year Adam Wainwright has pitched in two games. In the first he struckout 7 batters while the Pittsburgh Pirates got 4 hits off of him. In the second game Wainwright struck out 4 batters while the Houston Astros got 4 hits off of him. Last season Wainwright pitched two games against the games, one at Wrigley Field. In both games he struckout 5 batters while giving up 4 hits. One thing to keep in mind is that a batter reaching base on fielder’s choice is not recorded as a hit. Against starting pitchers this season the Cubs have 41 hits in 401/3 innings, but have averaged 1 hit or less against those pitchers in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Cubs have only struck out more than they have hit against a starting pitcher once this season. Thanks to fredbailey for pointing out that last fact.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) I like the Bruins in this one because the same factors favoring Pittsburgh winning by more goals yesterday also favor Boston here, but even more so. First are the goalie matchups. Boston starts Tim Thomas who has a nice 2.10 GAA with 93.3 SV%. Montreal starts Carey Price with a 2.83 GAA and 91.5 SV%. Boston averages a goal scored for every 9.15 shots taken on goal and Montreal averages a goal for every 9.88 shots. Boston outscored Montreal by 10 goals in going 5-0-1 during the regular season. Detroit is looking to start Chris Osgood with a 3.09 GAA and 88.7 SV%. Columbus starts Steve Mason with a 2.29 GAA and 91.6 SV%. Detroit averages a goal for every 10 shots taken while Columbus averages a goal for every 10.5 shots taken. During the regular season Detroit outscored Columbus by 1 goal while going 3-2-1 in those matchups. That number is so small because they suffered an 8-2 defeat to the Blue Jackets in Detroit with Osgood giving up 7 of those goals on 23 shots. In their victories Detroit’s average margin of victory was 3 goals.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) The Chicago White Sox were 3-4 at Tropicana Field in 2008. In two of those games John Danks pitched, recording an ERA of 0.69 in thirteen innings pitched. The White Sox won both games by scores of 6-0 and 5-1. In all four games against the Rays, including the playoffs, Danks had an ERA of 2.42 in 26 innings pitched and the Sox were 3-1. In the third game the Sox won at Tropicana Field last year Jeff Niemann pitched 3.1 innings and gave up 7 runs, five of them earned runs. The Sox hit two home runs, and Niemann walked in another run by hitting a batter with a pitch and the bases loaded. The Sox won that game 9-2. So far this season Niemann has a 10.13 ERA in 51/3 innings pitched, but keep in mind his ERA was 45.00 in the first inning he pitched and 2.08 over the next 41/3 innings. Danks has a 0.00 ERA so far this season in 6 innings pitched. Evan Longoria is out for the Rays for this game as he is still attending to personal matters.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) Anaheim and San Jose have played one another 6 times this season with 5 goals or fewer being scored 5 times. They played each other twice in the last week of the season with 7 and 5 goals being scored. Anaheim won 5-2 in San Jose and the Sharks won 3-2 in Anaheim. Jonas Hiller was in net for Anaheim in both games while Nabokov and Boucher were in net for the Sharks in the first and second games, respectively. Anaheim closed out the season strong scoring 3.9 goals per game in their final 10 games. Hiller will be starting for the Ducks in this first playoff game after strong performances in the regular season while the Sharks will rely primarily on Evgeni Nabokov. Both goalies average better than .915 on saves and under 2.5 on goals against.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
April 15th, 2009 Picks
0-1-1 today. Yes, 0-1-1. I avoided picking Safin, the White Sox game was postponed due to rain and I avoided picking Bayern Munich. My next pick was for the Islanders/Avalanche/Thrashers to win the #1 draft pick in the NHL draft lottery. I switched my pick just before 6pm to the 76ers. Oh man, what a mistake. On the up side the very fact that I avoided picking the morning games meant I only lost a 3 game streak with that pick rather than a 5 game streak. The down side is that I could easily have built my streak up to 7 today.
The Sixers played like a team that did not belong in the playoffs. Boston’s offense was fluid with players moving from side-to-side on the court, setting screens to one another, and moving the ball around through crisp passing rather than dribbling. That is the kind of offense that leads to easy baskets for wide open men. The Sixers’ tended to stand around on the offensive end and wait for the ball to be passed to them before they began to move around. Most of their offense was created in one-on-one situations, with players creating their own shot.
At the end of the half the Celtics appeared to lose interest in the game and began to give up a wide variety of wide open slam dunks and fast break points off of turnovers. The Sixers took a 58-50 lead into the half and maintained a 5 point lead through the third quarter. Paul Pierce did a terrific job keeping Boston in the game as he went 7 for 9 from the three point line. Boston erased their deficit and took a lead early in the 4th quarter as Philadelphia went over the foul limit with 9 minutes remaining. The game was close down the stretch and with 19 seconds to go Philadelphia got possession of the ball and down a point. Miller inbounded the ball to Iguodala who dribbled the clock down to 5 seconds before attempting a drive to the hoop which Pierce and Marbury headed off. Iguodala ended up lobbing up a one handed fall away shot while moving to his left which missed and the Celtics held on to win 100-98. So away from this and on to the next. Day of picks.
1) Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Lapentti – 20 games or more
2) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Cleveland
3) Manchester United @ FC Porto – FC Porto win or draw
4) Villarreal @ Arsenal – 2 goals or fewer
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
7) Washington Capitals win margin vs. Pittsburgh Penguins win margin – Pittsburgh
8) Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks – Houston
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – Baltimore
10) St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks – 5 goals or fewer
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
12) Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers – Portland
20+ for the morning, with an L1 streak what have I got to lose?
Analysis
1) Marat Safin is ranked #21 in the world right now on the ATP Tour. He has not won a single match in 2009 in under 20 games as of yet. He always could pick up his first such match tomorrow against Lapentti. Nicolas Lapentti is currently ranked #98 in the world. He has lost in straight sets and in 19 games or fewer to players lower ranked than himself in 2009 (#142 Mikhail Kukushkin for one). He has also won matches against players ranked higher than Safin in 20 games or more; his round of 64 match against #15 Radek Stepanik which he won on Monday is a good example. In the end if one of these players is having a bad day on the court and the other is in the zone it could easily go over, but I like that Lapentti is playing well in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Currently Kansas City is favored at -115 with the odds on Cleveland being +105, which is pretty close. Sidney Ponson is starting for the Royals in this game. Last year he averaged fewer than one strikeout every 2 innings pitched and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.2. The Indians’ rotation has taken 49 turns at the bat against Ponson and hit 3 home runs, 3 doubles, and 15 singles while batting in 16 runs. In his first start of the season Ponson gave up 4 runs in 6 innings pitched. Aaron Laffey will be pitching for the Indians and he turns 24 today. Against the Royals’ batters he has given up 2 doubles, 12 singles and 3 RBIs in 64 at bats while striking out 11 batters and walking only 6. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.4 last year while having a 4.23 ERA. Not a terrific pitcher but if Cleveland can break out of their hitting slump and score runs against a pitcher they have had success against previously they should have the advantage.
Confidence: W2 streak
3) Manchester United is a terrific side and they will be returning Rio Ferdinand in the back field to pair with Nemanja Vidic on defense. They have not played many games with both players starting in the past month or so and in that time their form has dipped considerably. A 17’ sending off of Paul Scholes led to a 0-2 defeat at Fulham and they have had to rely on late game winners from 17 year old Federico Macheda to win their last two Premier League matches. Adding Ferdinand to the mix will help but it will be difficult for them to transform themselves into the side they will need to be to win this match overnight. FC Porto head the Portuguese Liga and have not lost at home in that league except for once to Leixoes when they had a reserve keeper in the net. FC Porto have never lost to an English team at home in their history as a football club. Manchester United will be looking to equalize the away goal count with at least 2 and will be playing to win but FC Porto knows they only have to outscore Manchester United by one goal to advance to the semi-finals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Evan Longoria will be missing the game tonight for the Rays to attend to some personal matters. The lines opened very close on this game with some books having the matchup at even odds while others had Tampa Bay at -110 and New York at +100. The starting pitchers will be two Andys, Pettite for the Yankees and Sonnanstine for the Rays. They have each started one game so far this season. Sonnanstine recorded a 12.60 ERA in a loss and Pettite had a 1.96 ERA in a win. Historically Pettite has done better against the Rays’ batters than Sonnanstine. Pettite has given up 3 home runs and 16 RBIs in 174 at bats for the Rays while Sonnanstine has been homered 4 times along with 10 runs being batted in in 86 at bats for the Yankees. Pettite gives up more hits on average than Sonnanstine does. Sonnanstine gives up 0.465 total bases per at bat compared to 0.379 total bases per at bat for Pettite. Last year Sonnanstine had a 10.61 ERA against the Yankees with a record of 1-0 and Pettite had a 4.13 ERA against the Rays with a record of 2-2.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Houston is playing to win the Southwest Division title over the San Antonio Spurs, something they have not done in a long time. Dallas will want to end the season on a winning note and possibly move into the 6 seed which would give them home court in the second round of the playoffs should the Hornets win their series in the first round. Houston and Dallas have played once this season since McGrady was injured and Alston was traded. The game was played in Houston and the Rockets won 93-86. Dallas is playing great basketball right now with the return of Josh Howard revitalizing them. I don’t see either team resting players a great deal, though Jason Kidd may see some of his minutes given to J.J. Barea. Barea is not much of a drop off except in the rebounding department as he is a remarkably good defender for someone his size. If Yao Ming can have a dominating performance and Battier, Brooks, and Artest are making a decent number of their attempts the Rockets have a terrific chance to take this game on the road against their possible first round opponent.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mark Hendrickson has had a good start to his season pitching a 1.69 ERA in a win in his first start this season. Last April he was pretty good to, going 4-0 with an overall ERA of 2.56. Benson had a 12.60 ERA in his first start of the season this year in a loss. The Orioles have had 49 at bats against Benson had gotten 17 hits and 5 RBI’s against him. In 42 at bats against Hendrickson the Rangers have had only 11 hits, but 6 of those were doubles and they batted in 5 runs. So the Rangers’ Hendrickson gives up more hits to the Orioles on average, but Benson is giving up just as many runs. Neither pitcher had any experience against their opposition last season. I like the Orioles to win this based on Benson having a poor first start and Hendrickson playing well and doing well in April overall. The lines on this game opened up with Texas as the slightest of favorites, but more or less even odds.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Bettors really love Portland at home in this game. A typical money line in Vegas has Portland as the favorite at -320 and Denver as the underdog at +250. The spread is 7.0 points in favor of Portland. Both teams may or may not rest players, but it hardly matters as each team have deep benches with players who have been major contributors in their wins this season. Denver is playing well right now but Portland is playing their best basketball of the season lately. Home court, bench play, and recent form favor Portland in my opinion.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
The Sixers played like a team that did not belong in the playoffs. Boston’s offense was fluid with players moving from side-to-side on the court, setting screens to one another, and moving the ball around through crisp passing rather than dribbling. That is the kind of offense that leads to easy baskets for wide open men. The Sixers’ tended to stand around on the offensive end and wait for the ball to be passed to them before they began to move around. Most of their offense was created in one-on-one situations, with players creating their own shot.
At the end of the half the Celtics appeared to lose interest in the game and began to give up a wide variety of wide open slam dunks and fast break points off of turnovers. The Sixers took a 58-50 lead into the half and maintained a 5 point lead through the third quarter. Paul Pierce did a terrific job keeping Boston in the game as he went 7 for 9 from the three point line. Boston erased their deficit and took a lead early in the 4th quarter as Philadelphia went over the foul limit with 9 minutes remaining. The game was close down the stretch and with 19 seconds to go Philadelphia got possession of the ball and down a point. Miller inbounded the ball to Iguodala who dribbled the clock down to 5 seconds before attempting a drive to the hoop which Pierce and Marbury headed off. Iguodala ended up lobbing up a one handed fall away shot while moving to his left which missed and the Celtics held on to win 100-98. So away from this and on to the next. Day of picks.
1) Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Lapentti – 20 games or more
2) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Cleveland
3) Manchester United @ FC Porto – FC Porto win or draw
4) Villarreal @ Arsenal – 2 goals or fewer
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
7) Washington Capitals win margin vs. Pittsburgh Penguins win margin – Pittsburgh
8) Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks – Houston
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – Baltimore
10) St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks – 5 goals or fewer
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
12) Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers – Portland
20+ for the morning, with an L1 streak what have I got to lose?
Analysis
1) Marat Safin is ranked #21 in the world right now on the ATP Tour. He has not won a single match in 2009 in under 20 games as of yet. He always could pick up his first such match tomorrow against Lapentti. Nicolas Lapentti is currently ranked #98 in the world. He has lost in straight sets and in 19 games or fewer to players lower ranked than himself in 2009 (#142 Mikhail Kukushkin for one). He has also won matches against players ranked higher than Safin in 20 games or more; his round of 64 match against #15 Radek Stepanik which he won on Monday is a good example. In the end if one of these players is having a bad day on the court and the other is in the zone it could easily go over, but I like that Lapentti is playing well in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Currently Kansas City is favored at -115 with the odds on Cleveland being +105, which is pretty close. Sidney Ponson is starting for the Royals in this game. Last year he averaged fewer than one strikeout every 2 innings pitched and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.2. The Indians’ rotation has taken 49 turns at the bat against Ponson and hit 3 home runs, 3 doubles, and 15 singles while batting in 16 runs. In his first start of the season Ponson gave up 4 runs in 6 innings pitched. Aaron Laffey will be pitching for the Indians and he turns 24 today. Against the Royals’ batters he has given up 2 doubles, 12 singles and 3 RBIs in 64 at bats while striking out 11 batters and walking only 6. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.4 last year while having a 4.23 ERA. Not a terrific pitcher but if Cleveland can break out of their hitting slump and score runs against a pitcher they have had success against previously they should have the advantage.
Confidence: W2 streak
3) Manchester United is a terrific side and they will be returning Rio Ferdinand in the back field to pair with Nemanja Vidic on defense. They have not played many games with both players starting in the past month or so and in that time their form has dipped considerably. A 17’ sending off of Paul Scholes led to a 0-2 defeat at Fulham and they have had to rely on late game winners from 17 year old Federico Macheda to win their last two Premier League matches. Adding Ferdinand to the mix will help but it will be difficult for them to transform themselves into the side they will need to be to win this match overnight. FC Porto head the Portuguese Liga and have not lost at home in that league except for once to Leixoes when they had a reserve keeper in the net. FC Porto have never lost to an English team at home in their history as a football club. Manchester United will be looking to equalize the away goal count with at least 2 and will be playing to win but FC Porto knows they only have to outscore Manchester United by one goal to advance to the semi-finals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Evan Longoria will be missing the game tonight for the Rays to attend to some personal matters. The lines opened very close on this game with some books having the matchup at even odds while others had Tampa Bay at -110 and New York at +100. The starting pitchers will be two Andys, Pettite for the Yankees and Sonnanstine for the Rays. They have each started one game so far this season. Sonnanstine recorded a 12.60 ERA in a loss and Pettite had a 1.96 ERA in a win. Historically Pettite has done better against the Rays’ batters than Sonnanstine. Pettite has given up 3 home runs and 16 RBIs in 174 at bats for the Rays while Sonnanstine has been homered 4 times along with 10 runs being batted in in 86 at bats for the Yankees. Pettite gives up more hits on average than Sonnanstine does. Sonnanstine gives up 0.465 total bases per at bat compared to 0.379 total bases per at bat for Pettite. Last year Sonnanstine had a 10.61 ERA against the Yankees with a record of 1-0 and Pettite had a 4.13 ERA against the Rays with a record of 2-2.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Houston is playing to win the Southwest Division title over the San Antonio Spurs, something they have not done in a long time. Dallas will want to end the season on a winning note and possibly move into the 6 seed which would give them home court in the second round of the playoffs should the Hornets win their series in the first round. Houston and Dallas have played once this season since McGrady was injured and Alston was traded. The game was played in Houston and the Rockets won 93-86. Dallas is playing great basketball right now with the return of Josh Howard revitalizing them. I don’t see either team resting players a great deal, though Jason Kidd may see some of his minutes given to J.J. Barea. Barea is not much of a drop off except in the rebounding department as he is a remarkably good defender for someone his size. If Yao Ming can have a dominating performance and Battier, Brooks, and Artest are making a decent number of their attempts the Rockets have a terrific chance to take this game on the road against their possible first round opponent.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mark Hendrickson has had a good start to his season pitching a 1.69 ERA in a win in his first start this season. Last April he was pretty good to, going 4-0 with an overall ERA of 2.56. Benson had a 12.60 ERA in his first start of the season this year in a loss. The Orioles have had 49 at bats against Benson had gotten 17 hits and 5 RBI’s against him. In 42 at bats against Hendrickson the Rangers have had only 11 hits, but 6 of those were doubles and they batted in 5 runs. So the Rangers’ Hendrickson gives up more hits to the Orioles on average, but Benson is giving up just as many runs. Neither pitcher had any experience against their opposition last season. I like the Orioles to win this based on Benson having a poor first start and Hendrickson playing well and doing well in April overall. The lines on this game opened up with Texas as the slightest of favorites, but more or less even odds.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Bettors really love Portland at home in this game. A typical money line in Vegas has Portland as the favorite at -320 and Denver as the underdog at +250. The spread is 7.0 points in favor of Portland. Both teams may or may not rest players, but it hardly matters as each team have deep benches with players who have been major contributors in their wins this season. Denver is playing well right now but Portland is playing their best basketball of the season lately. Home court, bench play, and recent form favor Portland in my opinion.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
April 14th, 2009 Picks
A terrific turnaround as I divorced myself from the past two days to go 3-0-0. My first pick was Ipswich Town to win or draw. The first half ended in a 0-0 scoreless draw but Bristol City midfielder Marvin Elliott received an excellent through ball from Michael McIndoe 6 yards from the goal and booted a goal home. Ipswich Town were completely unable to muster up any offense for most of the game until the striker Giovanni was substituted into the game. Ipswich Town were still unable to find the goal as the match entered injury time, but just before the whistle Bristol City committed a penalty. Giovanni converted the penalty kick and the match ended with Ipswich receiving a miracle point in a 1-1 draw.
My second pick was the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox went up early in the 2nd inning with back to back homers by Dye and Konerko to lead off. The Tigers gained a run back in the bottom of the inning but Quentin, Konerko, and Ramirez batted in four runs in the third inning. The Tigers gained back three runs on a home run by Santiago in the bottom of that inning. The White Sox had an answer again in the fourth inning when Quentin hit a two run homer. The Tigers kept clawing back but the theme of the game was the White Sox scoring after every inning in which the Tigers scored. Quentin and Konerko led the Sox with 4 RBI’s apiece and the White Sox won 10-6.
My third pick was the Milwaukee Bucks. When I originally posted my blog I was under the impression Dwight Howard would be playing limited minutes so when Stan Van Gundy revealed Howard would not dress for the game I locked in the pick. The Magic had a 6 point lead after the first quarter but from there the Bucks grabbed the lead and slowly extended it throughout the game. The Bucks had 25 assists on 35 field goals made while the Magic had 13 assists on 25 field goals. The Bucks also went 8 for 21 from three point range while the Magic went 2 for 18. Marcin Gortat had 10 points and 18 rebounds for the Magic in 43 minutes of playing time. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Safin has more aces
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Barcelona @ Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win or draw
4) Liverpool @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
7) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
8) New York, Atlanta, Colorado vs. Any Other Team – NY, ATL, COL win the lottery
9)) Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati
10) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – 11 runs or more
11) Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics – Jack Cust records more total bases
Analysis
1) Marat Safin generally has a stronger serve averaging 0.758 aces per service game played in 2009. Lleyton Hewitt averages 0.489 aces per service game this year. The match today will be played on a clay surface where fewer aces are generally served. Hewitt and Safin have played twice before on a clay surface, once in 2002 and once in 2001. In 2001 Hewitt had 3 aces to 2 for Safin in their match, while Safin out-aced Hewitt 5-1 in their 2002 match. Safin has generally out-aced Hewitt by large margins in their other matches. Hewitt just finished winning a clay court tournament in Houston on Sunday before traveling to Monaco for this event. Safin is taller and has a greater reach so he may be able to get his racket on the serve even if he does not return it, limiting the number of aces for Hewitt. Here are the ATP Tour profiles and statistics for these two. Peruse at your leisure.
Hewitt's stats.
Safin's stats.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Chicago is the favorite here at -120 with Detroit an underdog at home at +110. The run line favors Detroit at -155 to +135 for Chicago. That puts the chances of a Chicago win by 1 run at 12.2% which is more than reasonable when overall 15% of a teams games are wins by 1 run. John Danks has had a good start with 5 scoreless innings pitched so far this year. Last year he had a great start in April as well but for a shelling at the hands of the Twins. This is Rick Porcello’s second major league start where he has an ERA of 7.20 in five innings against Toronto so far. Against the Tigers’ batters Danks has 8 times as many strikeouts as walks in 106 at bats. He has given up only 2 home runs, or one in 53 batters faced. He had a 2-0 record and 2.41 ERA against Detroit last season.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
3) FC Barcelona dominated Bayern Munich for 45 minutes in taking a 4-0 lead into the half of their first draw in Barcelona. Both sides adjusted their game at the half and the second half ended with the score 4-0. That is evidence of the kind of game Barcelona will play with a 4 goal lead. Bayern Munich return Phillip Lahm, Lucio and possibly Daniel van Buyton, all crucial to their defense. FC Barcelona will be missing Thierry Henry unless the fever keeping him out of practice the day before abates quickly. Barcelona will also be missing Rafael Márquez after he picked up his fifth yellow card in competition. Messi, Eto’o, Xavi, Puyol, and Toure were all rested in their domestic match against Recreativo Huelva so they could all be fairly expected to start in this match. Even with them starting I see Barcelona being unable to match the focus and intensity of a Bayern side playing at home and looking to erase any trace of that 4-0 1st half drubbing.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Currently Philadelphia are a 5.5 point favorite with the money lines having them a favorite at anywhere from -220 to -270. Everybody is working with the assumption Doc Rivers will limit the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and Rondo or perhaps not play them at all. At -200 bettors were picking Philadelphia overwhelmingly. One casino put Philadelphia at -280 and a flood of money poured in on Boston to win with the profit greater than 3:1 for a Celtics win. Four minutes later they adjusted it to -270 for the Sixers. I’ll wait until the pre-game press conference before picking for sure. The Celtics will undoubtedly end up facing the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and after being completely non-competitive with Cleveland on Sunday may be looking to prove they can win. Watch out if Pierce, Rondo, and Allen end up playing major minutes.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) New York, Atlanta, and Colorado have combined odds of 49.9% of being selected to receive the #1 draft pick. NHL rules stipulate a team may only move up 4 spots in the draft from their regular season finish. That means the Los Angeles Kings and Tampa Bay Lightning are the only ‘other teams’ who can possibly get the #1 pick. Their odds of winning are a combined 27.7% chance. At 72.3% the odds of winning this are nearly as good as a -275 money line pick, but do you want to risk your streak on a truly random event?
UPDATE: The wording of the prop has been ‘fixed’ so that it is who will win the lottery meaning the odds are back to 49.9% for ATL, COL, NYI.
UPDATE2: The wording on the prop has been changed back to “who will win the #1 pick” giving you a 73% chance of winning with ATL, COL, and NYI. Be careful as they’ve changed to wording on this back and forth more than once now.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Milwaukee is favored to win at -135 and Cincinnati is the underdog at +120. Cincinnati is favored in the run line at -175 to +155 for Milwaukee. That puts the odds on a win by 1 run for Milwaukee at 17.7% which is a bit high and favors a win by Cincinnati. Milwaukee is starting Manny Parra who has not done well against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting a home run for every 13 batters facing Parra. Parra had an 8.27 ERA against the Reds last season and has started this season with a poor outing against San Francisco. Bronson Arroyo has a large amount of experience against the Brewers with a home run rate about half of Parra’s against the Reds. Arroyo had a 3.65 ERA against the Brewers last season, but gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Mets in his first start of the season. Both pitchers are capable of throwing strikes, Arroyo struck out 3 times as many batters as he walked last season and Parra struck out twice as many.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Jack Cust has recorded 6 total bases in 8 at bats against Daisuke Matsuzaka with a home run and two singles. David Ortiz has recorded 1 total base in 2 at bats against Eveland. So far this year Ortiz is batting .208, recording 5 total bases in 24 at bats. Jack Cust is batting .381 with 15 total bases recorded in 21 at bats. Matsuzaka has an ERA of 6.50 in one start this season against Tampa Bay and Eveland has an ERA of 4.50 in his sole start against the Angels.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
My second pick was the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox went up early in the 2nd inning with back to back homers by Dye and Konerko to lead off. The Tigers gained a run back in the bottom of the inning but Quentin, Konerko, and Ramirez batted in four runs in the third inning. The Tigers gained back three runs on a home run by Santiago in the bottom of that inning. The White Sox had an answer again in the fourth inning when Quentin hit a two run homer. The Tigers kept clawing back but the theme of the game was the White Sox scoring after every inning in which the Tigers scored. Quentin and Konerko led the Sox with 4 RBI’s apiece and the White Sox won 10-6.
My third pick was the Milwaukee Bucks. When I originally posted my blog I was under the impression Dwight Howard would be playing limited minutes so when Stan Van Gundy revealed Howard would not dress for the game I locked in the pick. The Magic had a 6 point lead after the first quarter but from there the Bucks grabbed the lead and slowly extended it throughout the game. The Bucks had 25 assists on 35 field goals made while the Magic had 13 assists on 25 field goals. The Bucks also went 8 for 21 from three point range while the Magic went 2 for 18. Marcin Gortat had 10 points and 18 rebounds for the Magic in 43 minutes of playing time. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Safin has more aces
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Barcelona @ Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win or draw
4) Liverpool @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
7) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
8) New York, Atlanta, Colorado vs. Any Other Team – NY, ATL, COL win the lottery
9)) Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati
10) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – 11 runs or more
11) Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics – Jack Cust records more total bases
Analysis
1) Marat Safin generally has a stronger serve averaging 0.758 aces per service game played in 2009. Lleyton Hewitt averages 0.489 aces per service game this year. The match today will be played on a clay surface where fewer aces are generally served. Hewitt and Safin have played twice before on a clay surface, once in 2002 and once in 2001. In 2001 Hewitt had 3 aces to 2 for Safin in their match, while Safin out-aced Hewitt 5-1 in their 2002 match. Safin has generally out-aced Hewitt by large margins in their other matches. Hewitt just finished winning a clay court tournament in Houston on Sunday before traveling to Monaco for this event. Safin is taller and has a greater reach so he may be able to get his racket on the serve even if he does not return it, limiting the number of aces for Hewitt. Here are the ATP Tour profiles and statistics for these two. Peruse at your leisure.
Hewitt's stats.
Safin's stats.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Chicago is the favorite here at -120 with Detroit an underdog at home at +110. The run line favors Detroit at -155 to +135 for Chicago. That puts the chances of a Chicago win by 1 run at 12.2% which is more than reasonable when overall 15% of a teams games are wins by 1 run. John Danks has had a good start with 5 scoreless innings pitched so far this year. Last year he had a great start in April as well but for a shelling at the hands of the Twins. This is Rick Porcello’s second major league start where he has an ERA of 7.20 in five innings against Toronto so far. Against the Tigers’ batters Danks has 8 times as many strikeouts as walks in 106 at bats. He has given up only 2 home runs, or one in 53 batters faced. He had a 2-0 record and 2.41 ERA against Detroit last season.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
3) FC Barcelona dominated Bayern Munich for 45 minutes in taking a 4-0 lead into the half of their first draw in Barcelona. Both sides adjusted their game at the half and the second half ended with the score 4-0. That is evidence of the kind of game Barcelona will play with a 4 goal lead. Bayern Munich return Phillip Lahm, Lucio and possibly Daniel van Buyton, all crucial to their defense. FC Barcelona will be missing Thierry Henry unless the fever keeping him out of practice the day before abates quickly. Barcelona will also be missing Rafael Márquez after he picked up his fifth yellow card in competition. Messi, Eto’o, Xavi, Puyol, and Toure were all rested in their domestic match against Recreativo Huelva so they could all be fairly expected to start in this match. Even with them starting I see Barcelona being unable to match the focus and intensity of a Bayern side playing at home and looking to erase any trace of that 4-0 1st half drubbing.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Currently Philadelphia are a 5.5 point favorite with the money lines having them a favorite at anywhere from -220 to -270. Everybody is working with the assumption Doc Rivers will limit the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and Rondo or perhaps not play them at all. At -200 bettors were picking Philadelphia overwhelmingly. One casino put Philadelphia at -280 and a flood of money poured in on Boston to win with the profit greater than 3:1 for a Celtics win. Four minutes later they adjusted it to -270 for the Sixers. I’ll wait until the pre-game press conference before picking for sure. The Celtics will undoubtedly end up facing the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and after being completely non-competitive with Cleveland on Sunday may be looking to prove they can win. Watch out if Pierce, Rondo, and Allen end up playing major minutes.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) New York, Atlanta, and Colorado have combined odds of 49.9% of being selected to receive the #1 draft pick. NHL rules stipulate a team may only move up 4 spots in the draft from their regular season finish. That means the Los Angeles Kings and Tampa Bay Lightning are the only ‘other teams’ who can possibly get the #1 pick. Their odds of winning are a combined 27.7% chance. At 72.3% the odds of winning this are nearly as good as a -275 money line pick, but do you want to risk your streak on a truly random event?
UPDATE: The wording of the prop has been ‘fixed’ so that it is who will win the lottery meaning the odds are back to 49.9% for ATL, COL, NYI.
UPDATE2: The wording on the prop has been changed back to “who will win the #1 pick” giving you a 73% chance of winning with ATL, COL, and NYI. Be careful as they’ve changed to wording on this back and forth more than once now.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Milwaukee is favored to win at -135 and Cincinnati is the underdog at +120. Cincinnati is favored in the run line at -175 to +155 for Milwaukee. That puts the odds on a win by 1 run for Milwaukee at 17.7% which is a bit high and favors a win by Cincinnati. Milwaukee is starting Manny Parra who has not done well against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting a home run for every 13 batters facing Parra. Parra had an 8.27 ERA against the Reds last season and has started this season with a poor outing against San Francisco. Bronson Arroyo has a large amount of experience against the Brewers with a home run rate about half of Parra’s against the Reds. Arroyo had a 3.65 ERA against the Brewers last season, but gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Mets in his first start of the season. Both pitchers are capable of throwing strikes, Arroyo struck out 3 times as many batters as he walked last season and Parra struck out twice as many.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Jack Cust has recorded 6 total bases in 8 at bats against Daisuke Matsuzaka with a home run and two singles. David Ortiz has recorded 1 total base in 2 at bats against Eveland. So far this year Ortiz is batting .208, recording 5 total bases in 24 at bats. Jack Cust is batting .381 with 15 total bases recorded in 21 at bats. Matsuzaka has an ERA of 6.50 in one start this season against Tampa Bay and Eveland has an ERA of 4.50 in his sole start against the Angels.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Monday, April 13, 2009
April 13th, 2009 Picks
0-2-1 today which is pretty terrible in my opinion when I had winners picked in my blog in 3 of the 4 time windows for the day. My first pick was Kevin Sutherland to card a lower front 9 score. Sutherland started his round off with a bogey to go behind Weir by a stroke but he promptly gained it back with a birdie on the second hole. The two remained all square until Sutherland lost another stroke with a bogey on the fifth hole. Weir birdied the par 3 sixth hole to take a two stroke lead with three holes remaining. Weir gave back a stroke on the next hole, a par 5, with a bogey. Sutherland was down a stroke on the last hole but managed to save a push with a birdie. Rory McIlroy was the only other golfer of the 50 competing to score a birdie on #9.
My next pick was Nick Watney to card a lower front 9. Watney and Ames each hit par for the course except for a birdie on #2 to put things all square through four holes. Ames hit a bogey on the par 4 fifth hole to go down a stroke. Watney kept that one stroke lead for one more hole until he put in one the worst finishes at Augusta on the front 9. Watney gave back his lead with a bogey on the seventh hole, went down a stroke with a bogey on the next hole and failed to save a push when Ames bogeyed the ninth hole when he bogeyed it himself. Watney was the only player to card three consecutive holes over par in the final round and only the third to do so after the cut.
My third and final pick was the Philadelphia Flyers. Henrik Lundqvist was a late decision to start with most sources stating Tellqvist would start as goalie. The Flyers still struck quickly scoring a goal in their first three shots. A puck over the glass penalty gave the Rangers a power play which they converted at the end. The Flyers converted their first power play but made one of the more dreaded mistakes when they not only failed to convert their next power play and gave up a short handed goal. The Flyers took an early lead in the second period but were unable to hold on as the Rangers scored two of their own in the first half of the final period. The Flyers ended up losing 4-3.
Other notable events: Johan Santana losing his first game started since last June despite recording a 0.00 ERA, and Kenny Perry bogeying the final two holes at the Masters to set up a playoff which Angel Cabrera won. And now on to the picks.
1) Ipswich Town @ Bristol City – Ipswich Town win or draw
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Philadelphia
4) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
5) San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – New York
6) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks – Milwaukee
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – St. Louis
Analysis
1) Wow, I just completely forgot to write something about this last night but with English Championship League soccer who really cares right? Ipswich and Bristol are 3 points removed in the tables. Ipswich have more away wins (8) than Bristol have home wins (7). Bristol are missing three key starting defenders. I generally say do not pick against the win/draw option unless the team with the win option is far far ahead in the standings.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) The Detroit Tigers are -120 favorites but the White Sox are only +110 underdogs. Road dogs have been doing fairly well so far in this young season, especially when they are heavy favorites to cover a 1.5 run spread. In this case Chicago is favored to cover at -180 to +160 for Detroit. Zach Miner had a 9.00 ERA last April and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He gives up hits and home runs at slightly higher rates to the White Sox batters than Gavin Floyd does to the Tigers’ batters. Gavin Floyd had a 3.16 ERA last April and a 3.68 ERA against Detroit. He has struck out three times as many of Detroit’s batters as he has walked.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) The Mets are -200 favorites in many casinos this morning and are even odds to cover the spread of 1.5 runs. Silva is new to the league this year and in his first game had only one strikeout compared to four walks, but gave up more than a few grounders leading to two double plays. Pelfrey had a strong finish to the season in 2008 but April has been one of his weaker months. His ERA against the Padres in 122/3 innings is 2.13 but the Padres have gotten 11 hits, including two home runs, in 31 at bats against Pelfrey.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Orlando is without Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu for tonight’s game and Stan Van Gundy has been reported as saying he’ll be looking to limit Dwight Howard’s minutes with the season coming to an end and no chance for Orlando to move up or down in the seeding. Look for Marcin Gortat to pick up those minutes and for a slew of other players to get their first meaningful minutes of the season. Vegas casinos are not putting lines out on the NBA at this point in the season but the online oddsmakers have Milwaukee winning by anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 points.
UPDATE: Vegas has opened books for this game with the spread at 3.5 points favoring Milwaukee
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was Nick Watney to card a lower front 9. Watney and Ames each hit par for the course except for a birdie on #2 to put things all square through four holes. Ames hit a bogey on the par 4 fifth hole to go down a stroke. Watney kept that one stroke lead for one more hole until he put in one the worst finishes at Augusta on the front 9. Watney gave back his lead with a bogey on the seventh hole, went down a stroke with a bogey on the next hole and failed to save a push when Ames bogeyed the ninth hole when he bogeyed it himself. Watney was the only player to card three consecutive holes over par in the final round and only the third to do so after the cut.
My third and final pick was the Philadelphia Flyers. Henrik Lundqvist was a late decision to start with most sources stating Tellqvist would start as goalie. The Flyers still struck quickly scoring a goal in their first three shots. A puck over the glass penalty gave the Rangers a power play which they converted at the end. The Flyers converted their first power play but made one of the more dreaded mistakes when they not only failed to convert their next power play and gave up a short handed goal. The Flyers took an early lead in the second period but were unable to hold on as the Rangers scored two of their own in the first half of the final period. The Flyers ended up losing 4-3.
Other notable events: Johan Santana losing his first game started since last June despite recording a 0.00 ERA, and Kenny Perry bogeying the final two holes at the Masters to set up a playoff which Angel Cabrera won. And now on to the picks.
1) Ipswich Town @ Bristol City – Ipswich Town win or draw
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Philadelphia
4) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
5) San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – New York
6) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks – Milwaukee
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – St. Louis
Analysis
1) Wow, I just completely forgot to write something about this last night but with English Championship League soccer who really cares right? Ipswich and Bristol are 3 points removed in the tables. Ipswich have more away wins (8) than Bristol have home wins (7). Bristol are missing three key starting defenders. I generally say do not pick against the win/draw option unless the team with the win option is far far ahead in the standings.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) The Detroit Tigers are -120 favorites but the White Sox are only +110 underdogs. Road dogs have been doing fairly well so far in this young season, especially when they are heavy favorites to cover a 1.5 run spread. In this case Chicago is favored to cover at -180 to +160 for Detroit. Zach Miner had a 9.00 ERA last April and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He gives up hits and home runs at slightly higher rates to the White Sox batters than Gavin Floyd does to the Tigers’ batters. Gavin Floyd had a 3.16 ERA last April and a 3.68 ERA against Detroit. He has struck out three times as many of Detroit’s batters as he has walked.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) The Mets are -200 favorites in many casinos this morning and are even odds to cover the spread of 1.5 runs. Silva is new to the league this year and in his first game had only one strikeout compared to four walks, but gave up more than a few grounders leading to two double plays. Pelfrey had a strong finish to the season in 2008 but April has been one of his weaker months. His ERA against the Padres in 122/3 innings is 2.13 but the Padres have gotten 11 hits, including two home runs, in 31 at bats against Pelfrey.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Orlando is without Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu for tonight’s game and Stan Van Gundy has been reported as saying he’ll be looking to limit Dwight Howard’s minutes with the season coming to an end and no chance for Orlando to move up or down in the seeding. Look for Marcin Gortat to pick up those minutes and for a slew of other players to get their first meaningful minutes of the season. Vegas casinos are not putting lines out on the NBA at this point in the season but the online oddsmakers have Milwaukee winning by anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 points.
UPDATE: Vegas has opened books for this game with the spread at 3.5 points favoring Milwaukee
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Sunday, April 12, 2009
April 12th, 2009 Picks
A very disappointing 1-2-1 day today. It started out with my five game streak screeching to a halt when Hull City came out flat and sloppy in their match away at Middlesbrough. ‘Boro struck first, and early, as Afonso Alves took a shot from just outside the box which was saved by Matt Duke. The shot rebounded and Tuncay Sanli was in position to rocket the ball past Duke. Six minutes later Hull City were awarded a corner kick and Manucho made the best of it by heading a shot into the goal to tie things up 1-1. Twenty minutes later Middlesbrough had a corner kick and were able to set up Matthew Bates for a strike from two yards out. Middlesbrough took a 2-1 lead into the half. Hull City tried to apply pressure in the second half but were mostly unable to earn any real scoring opportunities. Middlesbrough was playing to stay out of relegation and Hull City looked like a team who felt they had nothing to play for. The two played scoreless until Marlon King found the net from 12 yards out giving ’Boro the badly needed three points with a 3-1 victory.
My next pick was Phil Mickelson to card a lower front 9 score. Ogilvy and Mickelson were all square through six holes but Ogilvy hit consecutive bogeys on the 6th and 7th holes. A birdie from Mickelson on the 8th hole give him a nearly insurmountable three stroke lead with only the 9th hole remaining. Mickelson hit par and Ogilvy ended up losing by three strokes.
My third pick was the Florida Marlins. The Marlins were having trouble hitting against Hernandez’s mid-70 mph knuckle balls. When they did advance batters to third they stranded those batters. In one inning Uggla was making a run to home plate but Hernandez made a miracle catch, throw to first, and the throw to home was just in time to tag Uggla out for the double play to end the inning. The Mets were having an easier time getting on base against Nolasco and picked up a run in the 3rd inning and three more in the 5th. Nolasco was relieved for the 6th inning but Miller gave up another run. The Mets tried to come back, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, but Penn gave up three more to the Mets in the 8th. The Marlins were down 8-2 in the bottom of the 9th and scored two runs in the 9th but by then they were hitting through the bottom of their order and Rodriguez completed the save for the Mets. Final score, Mets 8, Florida 4.
My final pick was Chivas USA to win. There was no scoring in the first half but plenty of yellow cards being issued. Just before the end of the half Chivas’ Paulo Nagamuro was given his second yellow card and sent off meaning Chivas USA would play a man down for the 2nd half. The Galaxy applied pressure and made substitutions for offense but Chivas USA were able to deflect their attacks. Donovan had a nifty pass leading to a goal waved off for offsides at one point and it seemed only a matter of time before L.A. scored. Alan Gordon for L.A. was awarded two yellow cards in the space of three minutes and sent off to even things up. 8 minutes later Eskandario beat the last defender and was about to break away towards the goal before Gregg Berhalter of L.A. committed a flagrant foul by grabbing the neck of Eskandario’s jersey and dragging him down to the ground. Since it was outside the penalty box there was no penalty kick awarded. Berhalter was sent off and L.A. survived a still timid Chivas attack for 11 minutes and barely staved off defeat in injury time after Chivas finally got it in their heads they had a tremendous advantage, were in no danger of being scored upon, and should try to score themselves. I was getting into soccer but I’m not interested in supporting a sport where flagrant fouls can reward the team who commits them. In the end it was a 0-0 draw and I received a push. So on to the picks.
1) Everton @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
2) Kevin Sutherland vs. Mike Weir – Sutherland cards a lower front 9 score
3) Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
4) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Nick Watney vs. Stephen Ames – Watney cards a lower front 9 score
6) Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 4th round score
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Detroit
8) Angel Cabrera vs. Kenny Perry – Cabrera cards a lower front 9 score
9) Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams – Williams points
10) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors – Philadelphia
13) A. Soriano and D. Lee vs. R. Braun and P. Fielder – Soriano and Lee more total bases
Analysis
1) Aston Villa and Everton have each had some tough results lately with Everton losing away at Portsmouth and Villa having lost on a late injury time goal by Macheda in his Manchester United debut. I think Aston Villa will be riled up by that and want to prove they really are in the same class as the Big Four by dominating Everton. Tim Howard is playing with a sore hamstring so he may aggravate it during the match and if not he may have trouble jumping off of that leg to make saves, making one side of the goal more vulnerable to attack. The home and road records would definitely support taking the ‘and draw’ option here but the little things that imply which side will be playing a sharper, cleaner game favor Aston Villa
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Kevin Sutherland has not played in the Masters since 2003 where he finished tied for 33rd with a 7 over 72-hole score. In that round he improved his front 9 score by four strokes from the 3rd to the 4th round so he can handle the increased difficulty. Mike Weir has played in every Masters from 2001 forward. Last year he hit 2 over par on the front nine in the final round. He has tended to worsen his performance on the front 9 in the final round. In 33 rounds of golf at Augusta since 2001 Weir has carded many rounds under par, but he has only hit better than 2 under once. I can see Sutherland hitting anywhere from 3 under to 4 over and Weir hitting anywhere from 2 under to 4 over. I think that is generous for Weir considering he has hit even par, 3 over, and 4 over so far this year at Augusta. With those ranges of scores and assuming each score is equally probable Sutherland is the favorite at 50% with Weir having a 37.5% chance of winning and a push at 12.5%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Dallas defeated New Orleans in Dallas two days ago making this a home-and-away series. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding to increase their odds of advancing through the first round. Dallas is playing terrific since Josh Howard came back from injury while New Orleans has been playing poorly lately. It’s very difficult to win back-to-back games against an opponent and especially when the second game is on their home court. New Orleans is favored by 3 points and I think Dallas is just not quite superior enough to take both games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Stephen Ames has golfed in every Masters from 2005-present. He has never scored better than 2 over par in the 4th round on the front 9 even after hitting under par in the 3rd round. He has never improved his score from the 3rd round either. This is only Watney’s second Masters tournament but in that time he has carded even par or better on the front 9 in 7 of 9 rounds. His worst front 9 score has been 2 over par. I very much like the chances of Watney, whose worst performance on the front 9 is equal to or better than the best performance Ames has had in the 4th round, to win in this prop. Generously considering Ames has a good chance of hitting one under par and conservatively considering Watney has a good chance of hitting five over par I calculated Watney winning at 55.6%, Ames winning at 33.3% and a push at 11.1%.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Angel Cabrera and Kenny Perry are tied at 11 under par going into the final round at Augusta so whoever wins this prop may very well be wearing the green jacket at the end. This is Perry’s first Masters since 2005 and the first time he has carded two rounds under 70. His best fourth round score was a 69 back in 1995. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive Masters and his first time carding three rounds under 70. His previous best fourth round score was a 68 in 2006. I give Perry the advantage here because he has been steadier with all three rounds being 68 or 69. In 31 rounds of play at Augusta since 2001 his average score is 72 and his median score is 72.5. In the 15 rounds Perry has played in that time his average and median scores are 74.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mo Williams and the Cavaliers are at home against the Celtics today. Williams has outscored Ray Allen in all three previous meetings between the two teams. Ray Allen’s season high is 36 points and he has scored 30 or more three times this season. Mo Williams’ season high is 44 and he has scored 30 or more points four times.
12) The odds in Vegas for this game are currently even. Toronto is eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago but Philadelphia can’t afford to lose games down the stretch if they want to avoid Cleveland and Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide including losing their last 4 on the road but they have won in Toronto before this season, back in November, and have beaten the Lakers and Portland on the road in the past month.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My next pick was Phil Mickelson to card a lower front 9 score. Ogilvy and Mickelson were all square through six holes but Ogilvy hit consecutive bogeys on the 6th and 7th holes. A birdie from Mickelson on the 8th hole give him a nearly insurmountable three stroke lead with only the 9th hole remaining. Mickelson hit par and Ogilvy ended up losing by three strokes.
My third pick was the Florida Marlins. The Marlins were having trouble hitting against Hernandez’s mid-70 mph knuckle balls. When they did advance batters to third they stranded those batters. In one inning Uggla was making a run to home plate but Hernandez made a miracle catch, throw to first, and the throw to home was just in time to tag Uggla out for the double play to end the inning. The Mets were having an easier time getting on base against Nolasco and picked up a run in the 3rd inning and three more in the 5th. Nolasco was relieved for the 6th inning but Miller gave up another run. The Mets tried to come back, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, but Penn gave up three more to the Mets in the 8th. The Marlins were down 8-2 in the bottom of the 9th and scored two runs in the 9th but by then they were hitting through the bottom of their order and Rodriguez completed the save for the Mets. Final score, Mets 8, Florida 4.
My final pick was Chivas USA to win. There was no scoring in the first half but plenty of yellow cards being issued. Just before the end of the half Chivas’ Paulo Nagamuro was given his second yellow card and sent off meaning Chivas USA would play a man down for the 2nd half. The Galaxy applied pressure and made substitutions for offense but Chivas USA were able to deflect their attacks. Donovan had a nifty pass leading to a goal waved off for offsides at one point and it seemed only a matter of time before L.A. scored. Alan Gordon for L.A. was awarded two yellow cards in the space of three minutes and sent off to even things up. 8 minutes later Eskandario beat the last defender and was about to break away towards the goal before Gregg Berhalter of L.A. committed a flagrant foul by grabbing the neck of Eskandario’s jersey and dragging him down to the ground. Since it was outside the penalty box there was no penalty kick awarded. Berhalter was sent off and L.A. survived a still timid Chivas attack for 11 minutes and barely staved off defeat in injury time after Chivas finally got it in their heads they had a tremendous advantage, were in no danger of being scored upon, and should try to score themselves. I was getting into soccer but I’m not interested in supporting a sport where flagrant fouls can reward the team who commits them. In the end it was a 0-0 draw and I received a push. So on to the picks.
1) Everton @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
2) Kevin Sutherland vs. Mike Weir – Sutherland cards a lower front 9 score
3) Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
4) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Nick Watney vs. Stephen Ames – Watney cards a lower front 9 score
6) Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 4th round score
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Detroit
8) Angel Cabrera vs. Kenny Perry – Cabrera cards a lower front 9 score
9) Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams – Williams points
10) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors – Philadelphia
13) A. Soriano and D. Lee vs. R. Braun and P. Fielder – Soriano and Lee more total bases
Analysis
1) Aston Villa and Everton have each had some tough results lately with Everton losing away at Portsmouth and Villa having lost on a late injury time goal by Macheda in his Manchester United debut. I think Aston Villa will be riled up by that and want to prove they really are in the same class as the Big Four by dominating Everton. Tim Howard is playing with a sore hamstring so he may aggravate it during the match and if not he may have trouble jumping off of that leg to make saves, making one side of the goal more vulnerable to attack. The home and road records would definitely support taking the ‘and draw’ option here but the little things that imply which side will be playing a sharper, cleaner game favor Aston Villa
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Kevin Sutherland has not played in the Masters since 2003 where he finished tied for 33rd with a 7 over 72-hole score. In that round he improved his front 9 score by four strokes from the 3rd to the 4th round so he can handle the increased difficulty. Mike Weir has played in every Masters from 2001 forward. Last year he hit 2 over par on the front nine in the final round. He has tended to worsen his performance on the front 9 in the final round. In 33 rounds of golf at Augusta since 2001 Weir has carded many rounds under par, but he has only hit better than 2 under once. I can see Sutherland hitting anywhere from 3 under to 4 over and Weir hitting anywhere from 2 under to 4 over. I think that is generous for Weir considering he has hit even par, 3 over, and 4 over so far this year at Augusta. With those ranges of scores and assuming each score is equally probable Sutherland is the favorite at 50% with Weir having a 37.5% chance of winning and a push at 12.5%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Dallas defeated New Orleans in Dallas two days ago making this a home-and-away series. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding to increase their odds of advancing through the first round. Dallas is playing terrific since Josh Howard came back from injury while New Orleans has been playing poorly lately. It’s very difficult to win back-to-back games against an opponent and especially when the second game is on their home court. New Orleans is favored by 3 points and I think Dallas is just not quite superior enough to take both games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Stephen Ames has golfed in every Masters from 2005-present. He has never scored better than 2 over par in the 4th round on the front 9 even after hitting under par in the 3rd round. He has never improved his score from the 3rd round either. This is only Watney’s second Masters tournament but in that time he has carded even par or better on the front 9 in 7 of 9 rounds. His worst front 9 score has been 2 over par. I very much like the chances of Watney, whose worst performance on the front 9 is equal to or better than the best performance Ames has had in the 4th round, to win in this prop. Generously considering Ames has a good chance of hitting one under par and conservatively considering Watney has a good chance of hitting five over par I calculated Watney winning at 55.6%, Ames winning at 33.3% and a push at 11.1%.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Angel Cabrera and Kenny Perry are tied at 11 under par going into the final round at Augusta so whoever wins this prop may very well be wearing the green jacket at the end. This is Perry’s first Masters since 2005 and the first time he has carded two rounds under 70. His best fourth round score was a 69 back in 1995. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive Masters and his first time carding three rounds under 70. His previous best fourth round score was a 68 in 2006. I give Perry the advantage here because he has been steadier with all three rounds being 68 or 69. In 31 rounds of play at Augusta since 2001 his average score is 72 and his median score is 72.5. In the 15 rounds Perry has played in that time his average and median scores are 74.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mo Williams and the Cavaliers are at home against the Celtics today. Williams has outscored Ray Allen in all three previous meetings between the two teams. Ray Allen’s season high is 36 points and he has scored 30 or more three times this season. Mo Williams’ season high is 44 and he has scored 30 or more points four times.
12) The odds in Vegas for this game are currently even. Toronto is eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago but Philadelphia can’t afford to lose games down the stretch if they want to avoid Cleveland and Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide including losing their last 4 on the road but they have won in Toronto before this season, back in November, and have beaten the Lakers and Portland on the road in the past month.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
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