August 2nd, 2009 Picks

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Picks
1) England U19 @ Ukraine U19 - Ukraine U19 win or draw
2) FC Midtjylland @ Brøndby IF - Brøndby IF win
3) Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets - New York
4) Buick Open Winning Score: 22 under or lower vs. 21 under or higher - 21 under or higher
5) Kurt Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Edwards has a better final position
6) New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
8) Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics - Indiana
9) Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - Toronto
10) Chicago Cubs @ Florida Marlins - Florida
11) Connecticut Sun @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
12) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta

Random Notes
First off, check out Chad Billingsley's game log. In the past month and more he's got a couple of nice quality starts... against Cincinnati and the Padres. Against St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee he was knocked around, badly. 6 walks against the Cards? 5 outs to 6 earned runs against the Astros? With Jurrjens pitching and Manny in an ever longer slump Atlanta seems like a good pick there.
Same with the Marlins. The Cubs were expected to contend and win the NL Central but Dempster is not the most reliable pitcher to roll with if you're calling a road win. Nolasco, on the other hand, has done well lately. Well enough to make this a close game through 6 innings.
I do like Toronto on the road as Vin Mazzaro has been shown to be quite hittable. The Athletics have been rock solid offensively scoring 5+ runs in each of their last 5 games. Plus Toronto's bullpen is never a safe bet to hold a lead. I'm almost talking myself out of this one but am counting on Ricky Romero to go deep in the game.
Weaver's right handed. If he's not 100% on with his stuff today Mauer, Morneau, and the rest, could take advantage. Seriously.
Damn you SM, are you seriously going to leave this Mets game locked through a rain delay? Inconsistent much?

August 1st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)3-1-0 today. Finally had a real solid day on the blog. The previews of the matchups have been rather sparse lately and that's a combination of being busy with other things like differential equation proofs (I know they work for real world problems but the Ivories like a bit more rigor). That will probably be the case for a few days but I'll try and get up some bare bones previews at least. Started off with Tiger Woods' incredible start on the back 9, then SV Ried disappointed themselves and me, but Volstad and the Marlins got me back on track followed by the Phillies breaking out of their funk (kind of) just in time to give Cliff Lee the win. And so it's on to a new month and a new day of picks. Good luck you monthly maniacs!

Tiger Roars Back Up The Leader Board With 63, John Senden Takes Weekend Lead

Tiger Woods' First 9 Holes: 30

Tiger Woods was just in a career best kind of mood to start the day. I really think his early morning start helped out while his afternoon start hurt him in the first round and will limit his success in the third round.

``Tiger Woods had the best five-hole start of his career, chipping in for eagle and making four birdies. Woods finished with a season-low 9-under 63 Friday in the Buick Open to shoot up the leaderboard. The round was his best round in relation to par in four years. Woods was coming off what he said was probably the worst putting day of his career on Thursday, leading to a lackluster 71 in his first competitive round since missing the cut at the British Open. He quickly clawed back into contention with his birdie-birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie tear and finished the day 10 under for the tournament. John Senden shot a 66 to take the second-round lead at 14 under, two shots ahead of Michael Letzig (65) and another stroke in front of Vaughn Taylor (68) and Bill Lunde (65). Woods entered the weekend four strokes back in a pack of six, including Kevin Stadler, who shot his second straight 67. Senden is shooting for his second PGA TOUR title and first in three years. The Australian has four top-10 finishes this season, including a pair of fourth-place ties."

Read More....LeaderboardPhotosTiger's Round HighlightsOther Highlights

Newcomers SC Magna Put SV Ried's Six Match Streak To An End

SC Magna Wiener Neustadt 2 - 1 SV Josko Ried

SV Ried had some golden opportunities slip by such as Jonathon taking a shot with no defenders except the keeper in front of goal. He booted it right to the goalie. "Unglaublich!" (unbelievable!) cried the announcers. Bummer for them.

It was a nerve-wracking end to the game. It was an extremely important victory because we were exposed by Graz [last week]. Now we're back in the championship race. ---SC Magna Wiener Neustadt coach Helmut Kraft
I can't really criticize our effort. Our defense appeared to be a little arrogant. Their offense was just of a higher quality. ---SV Ried coach Paul Gludovatz
It was a great game. We turned things around and I got a shot on goal. We showed character today. We'll try to take the first half also next game. ---Diego Viana, SC Magna
I had faith I could score a goal even when I was on the sidelines. We showed we can succeed even without the lead and win a game. We're sure better at home than away. ---Tomas Simkovic, SC Magna
We were inattentive to their counter attack and that's something you can't afford away from home. They were two careless goals. We may as well have made the goals for them. We had the game wrapped up and have only ourselves to blame for the loss. ---Herwig Drechsel, SV Ried

Quotes & CommentarySC Magna RecapSV Ried Recap

Marlins Wrestle One Away From Cubs

Florida Marlins 5 - 2 Chicago Cubs

Chris Volstad was solid and the Cubs relievers were uncharacteristically poor. Volstad at home was the main reason for taking the Marlins here I thought.

``Volstad retired the first 12 batters and took a shutout into the seventh, but Jake Fox's two-out, two-run homer tied the score at 2-all. The hit brought a roar from the crowd of 25,024, with many of the fans clad in Cubs blue. It was the 22nd homer allowed by Volstad, who went 6 ²/₃ innings. The score was 2-all when Carlos Marmol (2-2) came into the game in the eighth with a scoreless streak of 8 1/3 innings, but he walked the first two batters. Dan Uggla scored from second on Baker's hit, and Helms doubled to hike his average as a pinch-hitter to .387. Florida won despite striking out 13 times, stranding nine runners and committing an error for the first time in nine games."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Stellar Cliff Lee Completes Game In First Start With Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies 5 - 1 San Francisco Giants

Thankfully Philadelphia finally managed to get a hit with men on base sometime in the latter stages of the game. Ibañez and Howard were still slugs though. Thankfully Lee was practically unhittable.

``Jayson Werth homered to put Philadelphia ahead early and added a two-run single in the seventh, Raul Ibanez drew a bases-loaded walk in the seventh for an insurance run and Lee did the rest. Lee pitched a four-hitter, carrying a no-hit bid into the sixth inning and even adding two hits with the bat, and the Philadelphia Phillies felt an immediate impact two days after acquiring the left-hander from Cleveland, beating the San Francisco Giants 5-1 on Friday night. Lee doubled in the eighth for his first career extra-base hit and that gave him his first multihit game; he doubled his previous career hit total. Fittingly, it was Ben Francisco -- who also came to the Phillies from the Indians on Wednesday -- whose sacrifice fly helped Lee score his first career run."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) FC Sion Sitten @ Neuchâtel Xamax FC - Neuchâtel Xamax FC win
2) New Zealand @ South Africa - South Africa
3) Winnipeg @ Toronto - 44 points or fewer
4) Tiger Woods' 3^rd Round Score: 66 or lower vs. 67 or higher - 67 or higher
5) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
6) New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox - New York
7) Carl Edwards vs. Brad Keselowski - Edwards has a better finishing position
8) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
9) Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets - Arizona
10) Toronto F.C. @ New England Revolution - Toronto F.C. win or draw
11) Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
12) Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers - Seattle
13) Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Calgary Stampeders - Saskatchewan wins or loses by 9 or less points
14) Los Angeles Sparks @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento

July 31st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-2-0 again today. Started off on the wrong foot with Scott Verplank. Then took the Santana pick in lieu of the two Audi Cup games. It was nice to have one in the bag early on rather than going through two penalty kick situations though I would have had two wins out of it instead one. I waited until the evening to take the 55 points or over and this one turned out like so many other tease-ems with the scoring amping up in the final minutes of the game only to fall three points short. My picks have been way off lately. After the past few weeks of heavy favorites winning practically every game I've been slow to adjust back to the norm of actual 50/50 toss ups where the apparent underdog pulls off the win fairly often. And so on to the picks.

Steve Lowry Makes Early Morning Run To Top Leaderboard At -9, Tiger Woods Outside Cut For Now

Front 9 Scores: S. Appleby 35, S. Verplank 36

I really figured Verplank, with a series of top 10 finishes the past few weekends, would outhit Appleby who hadn't played at Warwick Hills since 2005. Mid-range putting is such a big factor towards your final score.

``Two weeks ago in the British Open, Woods was 7 over during a six-hole span and ended up missing a cut for the first time in three years. If Woods fails to break 70 in the second round on Friday, he will put himself in danger of missing cuts in consecutive tournaments for the first time as a pro. It's too early, though, to count him out for the weekend at Warwick Hills even though the cut is usually 3 or 4 under. He opened the 2005 Buick Open with a 71, bounced back with a course-record tying 61 and finished tied for second. Lowery took advantage of perfect conditions -- smooth, receptive greens and calm winds -- in the morning by tying a course record with a 29 on the front nine and finishing 9-under 63. John Senden also did, making five straight birdies in the morning and finishing with nine to end up only a shot off the lead. Y.E. Yang, James Nitties, Vaughn Taylor, Brian Vranesh were two strokes back with 65s."

Read More....LeaderboardPhotosHighlights

Rockies Remain Feeble In New York As Santana Joins 12-Win Club

New York Mets 7 - 0 Colorado Rockies

Colorado finally won a game in New York in the second game of the doubleheader, so they're something like 4-24 now in their last 28 in New York against the Mets.

``Santana (12-8) struck out eight and walked one in his first career outing against Colorado, allowing just four hits. The two-time Cy Young Award winner closed out July with a 3-2 record and a sparkling 1.82 ERA in five starts. Bobby Parnell and Tim Redding each pitched an inning to finish the four-hitter. New York, posted its highest run total in a Santana start since they beat the Nationals 7-4 on June 27. The Rockies have lost three straight for the first time since they dropped four in a row from May 31-June 3. They haven't scored since Clint Barmes' solo homer in the fifth inning of Monday night's 7-3 loss in the series opener. Ian Stewart narrowly missed a grand slam with a long foul ball off Santana in the fourth, then struck out to end the inning."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Ray Stamps Out Alouettes' Perfect Season

Edmonton Eskimos 33 - 19 Montreal Alouettes

Things got off to an ominous start for anyone hoping these teams combine for 55+ points. Montreal marched down the field on their first two possessions only to be stopped once they got within striking distance.

``Montreal efficiently marched the ball up the field on its first two possessions, but Edmonton held them to a pair of Damon Duval field goals. Eskimos kicker Noel Prefontaine responded with a field goal of his own and the Alouettes held a 6-3 lead after the opening quarter. Montreal recorded its first touchdown of the game with 7:40 to play after a 39-yard punt return by Larry Taylor eventually led to a one-yard TD run by Avon Cobourne to cut the score to 26-16. The Eskimos looked like they were going to restore their lead after a 65-yard kick return from Arkee Whitlock, but Ray was picked off at the Alouettes 15 by Jerald Brown. A 31-yard field goal by Duval to cut the lead to a converted touchdown with three and a half minutes to play. However the Eskimos rebounded under pressure as Ray was able to hit a wide-open Stamps for a 48-yard TD pass with two minutes remaining to put Edmonton back ahead with a comfortable margin."

Read More....Box Score

Picks
1) Tiger Woods' Score On The Back 9: 33 or lower vs. 34 or higher - 33 or lower
2) West Indies vs. Bangladesh - Bangladesh
3) Y.E. Yang vs. Jim Furyk - Yang cards a lower or equal front 9 score
4) SV Josko Ried @ SC Magna Wiener Neustadt - SV Josko Ried win or draw
5) Will A MotoX Rider Land A Front Flip: Yes vs. No - No
6) Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles - Boston
7) Chicago Cubs @ Florida Marlins - Florida
8) Minnesota Lynx @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
9) Julio Diaz vs. Victor Manuel Cayo - Cayo
10) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
11) New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
12) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
13) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants - Philadelphia
14) Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland records more hits in innings 4 through 6

July 30th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-2-0 today with Man U doing right by me but then just pure patheticry. First the danger in picking Duke I pointed out, they like to pull him early, was spot on. 7 shutout innings, 87 pitches, 6 hits. I guess that's not the kind of pitcher you want to keep in, not when you can pinch hit for them with two outs and nobody on base. Cain got a complete game shutout and a no-decision. Sad. Philadelphia then decided to celebrate the acquisition of Cliff Lee by tickling one another's taints in the dugout while spazzing out at bat, allowing Yusmeiro Petit to dominate them. I guess they figure pitching is their strength now. Hahah, but seriously nice one Petit, way to save your job. And on to the picks.

Recaps

Anderson, Valencia Tally First Career Red Devils Goals In Defeat Of Boca

Manchester United 2 - 1 Boca Juniors

Manchester United showed they'll still be a tough club with or without Ronaldo and Tevez though Alex Ferguson did express some concern over their play.

``Anderson, whose 75 senior appearances for United have so far produced not a single goal, ended his barren run, albeit in a non-competitive fixture, with a curling left-foot free-kick on 23 minutes of this Audi Cup clash in the Allianz Arena. Had Ronaldo still been a United player, it is unlikely that Anderson would have been allowed anywhere near the set-piece, yet the former Porto midfielder displayed rare accuracy to send the ball past the statuesque goalkeeper Roberto Abbondanzieri. Ferguson has conceded that expecting Valencia to prove a direct replacement for Ronaldo would be a tall order, but the 23 year-old was bright and positive before he extended United's lead with a long range strike on 42 minutes. Having received the ball from Wayne Rooney 40 yards from goal, Valencia raced past two Boca defenders before aiming a right-foot effort goalwards from the edge of the penalty area. Abbondanzieri should have saved comfortably, but ball squirmed under the Argentina No 1's body, enabling Valencia to claim a welcome debut goal."

Read More....`Boca Were The Better Team In The Second Half'Manchester RecapBoca RecapHighlights

See Anderson's 1^st Goal
See Valencia Put ManU Up 2-0

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Cain Misses Chance For 13^th Win As Giants Finally Tally In The Tenth

San Francisco Giants 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Pirates (in 10)
M. Cain 9 IP, 0 ER; Z. Duke 7 IP, 0 ER

It's difficult to truly criticize Pittsburgh for pulling Duke after 87 pitches even though he had not given up a run. His replacement, Grabow, pitched two perfect innings before Capps blew it in the 10^th.

``Randy Winn lined an RBI single down the first-base line with two outs in the 10th inning and the San Francisco Giants beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 1-0 on Wednesday for a three-game sweep. Cain, named an NL All-Star but unable to participate because of an arm injury, struck out four and walked two in an impressive 111-pitch outing. He hasn't lost in six starts since a June 26 defeat at Milwaukee. Pirates left-hander Zach Duke hung tough with Cain, working out of some tough jams to keep the game scoreless. The Giants squandered scoring chances in the second, fourth, fifth and seventh innings."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Phucking Phillies Dominated By Yusmeiro

Arizona Diamondbacks 4 - 0 Philadelphia Phillies

Petit is a guy who got chased by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 4¹/₃ innings in his last start. This kind of shit really happens in baseball. 9 runs in one inning against Cueto one day, zero runs in 9 innings against YPet the next.

``Facing the potent Phillies lineup, Petit gave up a leadoff single to Jimmy Rollins, then began to cruise. He allowed a single to Raul Ibanez leading off the second before retiring 15 of the next 16 batters, including 13 straight at one point. `It feels good, especially against that team,' Petit said through an interpreter. `It's a strong and pretty good-hitting club. It makes you feel good about yourself.' After Ryan Howard singled and Ibanez doubled to open the seventh, Petit left to a standing ovation from the Chase Field crowd. Juan Gutierrez came on and struck out Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs before walking Carlos Ruiz to load the bases. Gutierrez escaped the jam by retiring pinch-hitter Pedro Feliz on a fly to center. `To come out of that unscathed is pretty much the story of the game in that one inning,' Arizona manager A.J. Hinch said."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Stuart Appleby vs. Scott Verplank - Verplank cards a lower front 9 score
2) Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets - New York
3) Boca Juniors vs. AC Milan - Boca Juniors
4) Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City
5) Tiger Woods' Score On The Four Par 5's: 18 strokes or fewer vs. 19 strokes or more - 18 or fewer
6) Larry Mize vs. Tom Watson - Watson cards a lower first round score
7) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
8) Manchester United @ Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich
9) Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream - Phoenix
10) Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
11) Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos - 55 points or more
12) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants - Philadelphia
13) How Many Runs Will Be Scored In Innings 4 Through 6 (Philles @ Giants): 2 or less vs. 3 or more - 3 or more

Previews

Tiger Woods' Par 5 Scores
2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
17	19	19	20	17
16	14	20	16	19
19	17	16	17	18
17	16	16	19	18

5) Tiger Woods has played this course each year from 2002 to 2006, making the cut all four years, and winning the tournament twice. This is his first year playing the Buick Open since then, however. In those five years he played 20 rounds and managed to complete the four par 5's in 18 strokes or fewer 13 times. In 2003 he took 14 strokes on the par 5's one round, carding two eagles and two birdies. In the five first rounds he played he took 18 or fewer strokes only twice, however. The par 5's on this course are all fairly easy with the most difficult of them being the 13^th most difficult over the past 24 years. The average score on all four par 5's over those 24 years is under par. One might wish to look at completed rounds on the leaderboard to get a sense of how many players are taking 18 or fewer strokes on these holes but I imagine that list will include players who are not even going to make the cut. In other words, it won't take Tiger being Tiger to go under here today.

July 29th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Gah, I knew I shouldn't have drowned that baby kitten the other day as I'm currently being raped by karma for it. 0-2-0 today with the Braves and Blue Jays. Two walk off hits, two losses. Whether it was a home run or a single chipped off the dirt (check out the Mariners video to see the hit) the team I picked against got what it needed. Oh well, I'm going to drown a baby kitten tomorrow anyways. Take that karma!

Recaps

Glooooaaaaad!!

Florida Marlins 4 - 3 Atlanta Braves

Gload pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth and gave Rafael Soriano his second blown save in 18 tries this season. This kind of thing just happens.

``Starters Jair Jurrjens and Ricky Nolasco departed with the score 2-2. Jurrjens pitched six innings, Nolasco seven. Atlanta's Garret Anderson hit a go-ahead homer to lead off the top of the ninth against Leo Nunez (3-3). Pinch-hitter Ross Gload hit a two-run homer with one out in the bottom of the ninth, and the Florida Marlins rallied past the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Tuesday night. Cody Ross walked against Rafael Soriano (1-2) to start the ninth and advanced on a sacrifice. Gload pulled a 3-1 pitch into the right-field seats and was mobbed by teammates when he reached the plate. Soriano blew a save for only the second time in 16 chances."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Ichirroooooo!!

Seattle Mariners 4 - 3 Toronto Blue Jays

First off, I can't believe Ichiro hasn't had a walk-off hit before today. Second of all, check the 'read more' link. What a great hit. I still think baseball players are the least athletic of any sport though. Look at the medium trot the Blue Jays fielders use to try and get to that one. Plops down right between them.

``Ichiro Suzuki dumped an 0-2 pitch from Toronto reliever Scott Downs into center field with two outs in the ninth inning to score Rob Johnson, and the Seattle Mariners snapped their four-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. Suzuki golfed the pitch nearly off the dirt and served it over the head of shortstop Marco Scutaro and in front of center fielder Vernon Wells. It was the first game-ending hit of Suzuki's career. Seattle loaded the bases with no outs in the ninth off Downs. He got two quick outs, but couldn't sneak the last pitch past the league leader in hits."

Read More....Box Score

Picks
1) Boca Juniors vs. Manchester United - Manchester United win
2) AC Milan @ Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich win
3) Zach Duke vs. Matt Cain - Duke pitches more innings
4) Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City
5) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
6) Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
7) Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers - Detroit
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
9) Everton vs. MLS All-Stars - MLS All-Stars win
10) Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Philadelphia
11) Result Of Ryan Howard's 2^nd Plate Appearance: Hit or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Hit or walk

Previews

This shows how often Duke and Cain have pitched a certain number of innings. Note: `6' is 6 to 6.2 innings. Click image for larger view.

3) The graph on the right is a histogram showing how often Zach Duke and Matt Cain have pitched a certain number of innings. They've each started 20 games this season. Matt Cain's starts add up to 19 because he has one start where he pitched 1²/₃ innings and had to leave after being struck in the arm with a line drive. That was on July 11^th and since then he's come back to pitch two games for 7 innings so he's fine, health-wise. Aside from that one game Cain is averaging 6.8 innings per start while Duke is averaging 7 innings per start. The graph shows that Cain has a couple more complete games under his belt but that Duke has finished 8 innings six times while Cain has gone through the 8^th in only those three complete games. San Francisco has shown a greater willingness to let Cain finish games but Duke has shown a greater ability to get through innings efficiently.

Duke really is a more economical pitcher and that is the main reason I give him the nod in this prop. So far this season batters are swinging at 29% of his pitches outside the zone and making contact with 69% of those pitches. Compare that with Cain who is getting batters to chase on only 25.3% of his pitches. Batters are only making contact with 59.5% of those pitches. Overall, Duke gets batters to put the ball into play with fewer pitches then and with a 1.23 WHIP those are generally turning into outs. One can also look at each team's plate discipline. The Giants are `tops' in the league when it comes to swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. The Pirates aren't great but nowhere near as bad as the Giants. The last time Duke pitched against San Francisco he used up 82 pitches to complete 7 innings. Matt Cain also pitched 7 innings in that game but it took him 107 pitches to get there. The one danger picking Duke is that Pittsburgh likes to relieve Duke early in his pitch count, especially in close games. They have a lot of faith in the bullpen.

July 28th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-0-0 today with The Freak, The Franchise, Timothy LeRoy Lincecum. With picks like that there's no limit to how high a streak might go. It was a pretty easy day for the Streak with all the majority picks winning except the Rockies who continued their futility in New York against the Mets (I think they're 2-19 in their last 21 there). Most of the picks won easily like with this Lincecum pick. Tomorrow looks like it might be a bit tougher. I'll wager Felix and the M's would have garnered a high percentage today against Ricky Romero. Think Washburn can do better? Good luck y'all, and on to the picks.

Lincecum Earns First Win Since All-Star Break With 15 Strikeouts San Francisco Giants 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Pirates Tim Lincecum 9 IP, 15 K

King Felix Gives Up 7 In Worst Start Of Season As Toronto Heats Up For West Coast Trip Toronto Blue Jays 11 - 4 Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez 52/3 IP, 2 K

Tim Lincecum pitched a complete game, striking out his first batter faced and his last along with 13 others in between. ``Tim Lincecum looked like his old self, pitching a four-hitter and bouncing back from a rough outing with a career-high 15 strikeouts in the San Francisco Giants' 4-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night. The hard-throwing right-hander earned his fourth complete game this season and sixth of his career, finishing his 115-pitch gem in 2 hours, 6 minutes. This marked the sixth time this season and 17th in his career that Lincecum struck out 10 or more." Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Ouch. Felix Hernandez matched his season low for strikeouts as the Blue Jays got to him early and often, finally chasing him in the 6th inning with four earned runs. ``Marco Scutaro matched his career high with four hits and the Toronto Blue Jays took advantage of Felix Hernandez's worst start of the season, beating the slumping Seattle Mariners 11-4 on Monday night. Lyle Overbay and Rod Barajas homered for the Blue Jays, who finished with 15 hits. Ricky Romero (9-4) pitched six innings for his sixth win in seven decisions. Counted on to stop any Seattle skids, Hernandez (11-4) allowed seven runs and 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. He had won a career-best seven consecutive decisions and was 10-2 with a 1.94 ERA following a Mariners loss this season." Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Dynamo Dresden @ SV Wehen Wiesbaden - SV Wehen Wiesbaden win
2) Benjamin Becker vs. John Isner - Isner
3) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - New York
4) Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins - Atlanta
5) Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun - Connecticut
6) Seattle Storm @ San Antonio Silver Stars - San Antonio
7) Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs - Houston
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
9) Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners - Toronto

Previews

SV Wehen Wiesbaden were relegated from 2. Bundesliga last season after finishing in last place. They'll try to turn their 3. Liga campaign around at BRITA-Arena against Dynamo Dresden tonight.

1) The second week of Germany's third-tier 3.Liga football gets underway today and Dynamo Dresden make their way to BRITA-Arena to take on SV Wehen Wiesbaden (SVWW). SV Wehen Wiesbaden were relegated from the 2.Bundesliga last season after finishing dead last at 5-12-17 (W-D-L). Clearly, they weren't up to the competition in the second-tier Bundesliga and may enjoy more success in the third-tier league. Unfortunately, their season got off to a rough start with a 1-2 loss away at FC Carl Zeiss Jena. They went down a goal early in the second half and then conceded a second from a direct free kick just outside the box. They manged to pull within one goal in the 74^th minute, but despite numerous chances they were unable to equalize. SVWW's coach, Hans-Werner Moser, was still pleased with the way his team fought after going down by two goals on the road. FC Carl Zeiss Jena were one of the lesser teams in the 3.Liga last season, however, making this an unimpressive result even if it was on the road.

Dynamo Dresden also got off to a rough start with a 0-1 loss at home to VfB Stuttgart II (Stuttgart reserves). VfB Stuttgart II were a middle of the pack team last season. Unlike SV Wehen Wiesbaden, Dynamo Dresden did not put forth a good effort as the media and their coach felt they were more or less outplayed on their home pitch. They failed to create any serious goal opportunities and manager Ruud Kaiser was disappointed in their overall effort though he went on to say it would just be a matter of time for the squad to develop the discipline to make their tactics work.

This is a matchup where the odds indicate picking Dynamo Dresden, hands down. With the sportsbooks profits accounted for and converted into moneylines these odds from BetFair indicate SV Wehen Wiesbaden are a +140 underdog against the win/draw combined. Both teams are trying to integrate new players into their sides as they try and improve. They each also have to deal with some top level talent moving on to larger teams during the offseason. They may be going through a transition period here at the beginning of the season but with SVWW in better form, scoring on the road and creating goal opportunities, I favor them to pick up a win at home.

July 27th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)It was a terrible day for my blog picks today, but I managed to wring a 2-0-0 day out of them with Cavendish and the Phillies. I really did not look at the picks too closely and just went with odds for the most part and as the results from yesterday showed that's not always the best way to pick winners. I don't know if sportsbooks hand out these kinds of stats, but I imagine for favorites up to -200 or -250 the win% is around 50-55%, kind of like the win% for popular favorites on `Streak'. The Dodgers might need to rethink Jason Schmidt as a regular rotation man after the Marlins throttled him. Kershaw, Billinsgley, Wolf, Kuroda, Weaver, seems like a perfectly fine staff to me though lacking a true ace. Tomorrow looks like some solid MLB picks, the risky ones, to me, are Philadelphia @ Arizona and the Yankees @ Tampa. The Phillies have been fantastic on the road though and Moyer has been pretty good lately. Good luck and on to the picks.

Alberto Contador Takes 2009 Tour de France Crown

Stage 21 Results: 1. M. Cavendish 4h 02' 18"; 2. M. Renshaw 4h 02' 18"; 3. T. Farrar 4h 02' 18"

Team Columbia executed the lead out so well for Mark Cavendish that one of his teammates (Renshaw) finished second.

``Contador finished a comfortable four minutes, 11 seconds ahead of Team Saxo Bank's Schleck in the overall standings, solidifying his place as one of the Tour's most dominant competitors - and putting him in place to be Armstrong's successor as the perennial favorite. Then again, Armstrong might not be ready to pass him the mantle just yet. In 2010, all bets are off. After a year of playing the good soldier, Armstrong has announced he will bolt team Astana for his own newly-formed squad, Team RadioShack, for another run at yellow. British sprinter Mark Cavendish won Sunday's 21st and final stage, along the Champs-Elysees in Paris, his sixth stage win this year, though he fell short of the green jersey - given to the Tour's best sprinter. Cavendish finished second to Thor Hushovd of Norway."

Read More....StandingsCommentaryHighlightsCavendish: Mission Accomplished

Two Run Shots Abound As Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez Break Cardinals' Backs

Philadelphia Phillies 9 - 2 St. Louis Cardinals

The recap kind of paints it like Wellemeyer was taken out early, but he really did a pretty good job for the first few innings. When Philly's on, they're on and offense like that is going to carry them far with the pitching staff overachieving, seemingly.

``Blanton has been Philadelphia's most dependable starter the last two months and put a slow start way behind him. He's lost only once since May 9 (6-1) and the Phillies are now 20-12 in Blanton's 32 starts since he was acquired from Oakland last season. He received a huge standing ovation from another sellout crowd when he struck out Matt Holliday to end the eighth inning. It matched his longest outing of the season. Holiday's sacrifice fly in the first and DeRosa's fourth homer of the year in the fifth were the only runs off Blanton. No matter who pitches for the Phillies, the big bats are usually out. The Phillies wasted little time rocking righty starter Todd Wellemeyer (7-9). Wellemeyer continues to struggle and lasted only 5 2/3 innings when the Cardinals could have used a longer outing to give the bullpen a needed break. Instead, Utley, Howard and Rollins all took him deep to build a 7-2 lead before he was yanked in the sixth. Ibanez made it 9-2 in the seventh when he hit his 26th homer of the season off Blake Hawksworth. Ibanez moved into second place in the NL in homers and the Phillies lead the league with 138 homers."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) AGF Aarhus @ Randers FC - AGF Aarhus win or draw
2) Lyon vs. FC Porto - Lyon
3) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
4) Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets - Colorado
5) Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Philadelphia
7) Felix Hernandez (v. Blue Jays) vs. Tim Lincecum (v. Pirates) - Lincecum records more strikeouts

Previews

AGF Aarhus visit Essex Stadium to take on Europa League participants Randers FC. Randers play Hamburg SV in the third qualifying round on Thursday.

1) Randers FC will try again to start their SAS-Ligæn season off on the right foot after losing 0-1 away at SønderjyskE in the first match of the season last week. That match came sandwiched between the two legs of their Europa league second round qualifying tie against Lithuanian club FK Suduva. Fortunately, they made up for their loss against SønderjyskE by taking a 1-1 draw against Suduva, good enough to advance to the third qualifying round where they will host Hamburg SV this Thursday. Before that, however, they'll take on local rivals AGF Aarhus (the two clubs are located only 25 miles apart). AGF Aarhus started their season off right with a 1-0 victory at home against AaB Aalborg. Peter Graulund scored 16 seconds in to the match and from there Aarhus were able to hold on for the win. Unfortunately for Aarhus Kim Madsen was forced to leave the game early with an injury and will miss the match against Randers today. Aarhus will also be without regular starter Jeremiah White at midfield who returned to the U.S. for personal reasons. On the plus side Michael Lumb (D) played the full 90 minutes against Aalborg after being out since last December with a knee injury.

Randers F.C. will have a full squad to choose from but with a huge match against Hamburg SV looming they may choose to rest some of their regular starters though I think it is unlikely. Against SønderjyskE they played Berg and Nygaard up front along with their starting midfield choosing only to rest Bobbie Friberg da Cruz and Allan Jepsen from the team their fielded against FK Suduva. I think that with such a big name opponent coming up and after losing their first league game Randers will be looking for a big win to build confidence and so will want to field their best team. Still, the way Randers performed against SønderjyskE is a concern. They started the match well, but after they went down a goal their aggressiveness disappeared and they never really threatened to score from that point on. Whether they lacked intensity because of a preoccupation with their Europa league tie or because they were on the road is tough to say but they struggled to create offense even with their regular attack on the field.

Last season Randers played at home twice against Aarhus, winning 3-1 one game and drawing 1-1 the other. It's very difficult to say who will be the more aggressive team in this match. The odds from BetFair currently have Randers F.C. as the favorite to win, but when considering a draw as a loss for them they are +125 underdogs. I think it's safest to assume Randers will field a full strength squad until there's news otherwise (there isn't at the moment) but with Peter Graulund and Nando Rafael leading the attack along with Benny Feilhaber at midfield I like Aarhus to pull off a draw. Randers just needs to play more confidently, keep possession, and eventually they'll find their way into the net, but until then it's tough to pick with them.

Olympique Lyonnais purchased FC Porto stars Lisandro López and Cissokho in the offseason, now they will get a chance to face their former team.

2) The 12-team 2009 Peace Cup got under way over the weekend with FC Porto sitting out of the action. Defending Peace Cup champions Lyon played their first match in their four team group against Turkish Super League club Beşiktaş to a 1-1 draw. FC Porto were the Portuguese Super Liga and Cup winners last season while Lyon finished third in Ligue 1. in France so one might expect the Dragons (Porto) to be favorites in this match. While neither team is greatly favored it is Lyon being given slightly better odds, as for example at WilliamHill where they are +130 to +170 for Porto. A big reason for that probably has to do with the transfer of Porto stars Lisandro and Cissokho away to Lyon which you can read about here. With the addition of two of Porto's best offensive players I would have to make Lyon the more dangerous team on the attack. Of course, this being a preseason tournament the best players on either side, including Porto's striker Hulk (remember him?), will likely see 45 to 65 minutes of play at most. With the opportunity of the push the odds of not losing ones streak are fairly good, say -200 for a pick with Lyon and -160 for a pick with Porto.

Strikeouts by start, 2009. (inset) Number of games with a certain K/9. Click image for larger view.

7) This prop asks which pitcher will record more strikeouts, Tim Lincecum (against the Pirates) or Felix Hernandez (against the Blue Jays). Right off the bat one might favor Lincecum as he sports a K/9 near 11 while Felix Hernandez's K/9 is just below 9. Lincecum also averages about 1.5 more strikeouts per game started (8.4 to 6.9). The graph on the left shows the number of strikeouts for each pitcher in every game they've started this season. One can see that in 13 of 20 starts Lincecum has recorded more strikeouts. The inset shows the number of games each player has put up a K/9 within a certain range: 0-5, >5-10, >10-15, and >15. Lincecum is striking out at least one batter per inning in ²/₃ of his starts while Hernandez is striking out fewer than one per inning in ²/₃ of his starts. The only factor that might tip the scales in favor of King Felix is the opponent each pitcher faces. Looking at how often the Pirates and Blue Jays strike out, however, shows the Blue Jays are the 2^nd best team in the league at avoiding strikeouts while the Pirates are 19^th in the league. It doesn't help that Pittsburgh play in the National League where the pitcher is part of the batting order. It won't be all that hot and humid this evening in San Francisco so I think Lincecum will do well to strike out at least 8 while Hernandez might top out at 6 against Toronto.

Notes
NYY @ TB - A.J. Burnett gives up fewer hits than Shields but has a bigger issue with his control, giving up more walks. Their ERA's are comparable (near 3.50) but Burnett has better career numbers against the Rays. He's already pitched a gem against Tampa Bay this season while Shields has yet to face the Yankees. The Yankees have a better offense but Tampa Bay is always tough to beat in their humid home.