July 29th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Gah, I knew I shouldn't have drowned that baby kitten the other day as I'm currently being raped by karma for it. 0-2-0 today with the Braves and Blue Jays. Two walk off hits, two losses. Whether it was a home run or a single chipped off the dirt (check out the Mariners video to see the hit) the team I picked against got what it needed. Oh well, I'm going to drown a baby kitten tomorrow anyways. Take that karma!

Recaps

Glooooaaaaad!!

Florida Marlins 4 - 3 Atlanta Braves

Gload pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth and gave Rafael Soriano his second blown save in 18 tries this season. This kind of thing just happens.

``Starters Jair Jurrjens and Ricky Nolasco departed with the score 2-2. Jurrjens pitched six innings, Nolasco seven. Atlanta's Garret Anderson hit a go-ahead homer to lead off the top of the ninth against Leo Nunez (3-3). Pinch-hitter Ross Gload hit a two-run homer with one out in the bottom of the ninth, and the Florida Marlins rallied past the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Tuesday night. Cody Ross walked against Rafael Soriano (1-2) to start the ninth and advanced on a sacrifice. Gload pulled a 3-1 pitch into the right-field seats and was mobbed by teammates when he reached the plate. Soriano blew a save for only the second time in 16 chances."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Ichirroooooo!!

Seattle Mariners 4 - 3 Toronto Blue Jays

First off, I can't believe Ichiro hasn't had a walk-off hit before today. Second of all, check the 'read more' link. What a great hit. I still think baseball players are the least athletic of any sport though. Look at the medium trot the Blue Jays fielders use to try and get to that one. Plops down right between them.

``Ichiro Suzuki dumped an 0-2 pitch from Toronto reliever Scott Downs into center field with two outs in the ninth inning to score Rob Johnson, and the Seattle Mariners snapped their four-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. Suzuki golfed the pitch nearly off the dirt and served it over the head of shortstop Marco Scutaro and in front of center fielder Vernon Wells. It was the first game-ending hit of Suzuki's career. Seattle loaded the bases with no outs in the ninth off Downs. He got two quick outs, but couldn't sneak the last pitch past the league leader in hits."

Read More....Box Score

Picks
1) Boca Juniors vs. Manchester United - Manchester United win
2) AC Milan @ Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich win
3) Zach Duke vs. Matt Cain - Duke pitches more innings
4) Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City
5) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
6) Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
7) Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers - Detroit
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
9) Everton vs. MLS All-Stars - MLS All-Stars win
10) Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Philadelphia
11) Result Of Ryan Howard's 2^nd Plate Appearance: Hit or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Hit or walk

Previews

This shows how often Duke and Cain have pitched a certain number of innings. Note: `6' is 6 to 6.2 innings. Click image for larger view.

3) The graph on the right is a histogram showing how often Zach Duke and Matt Cain have pitched a certain number of innings. They've each started 20 games this season. Matt Cain's starts add up to 19 because he has one start where he pitched 1²/₃ innings and had to leave after being struck in the arm with a line drive. That was on July 11^th and since then he's come back to pitch two games for 7 innings so he's fine, health-wise. Aside from that one game Cain is averaging 6.8 innings per start while Duke is averaging 7 innings per start. The graph shows that Cain has a couple more complete games under his belt but that Duke has finished 8 innings six times while Cain has gone through the 8^th in only those three complete games. San Francisco has shown a greater willingness to let Cain finish games but Duke has shown a greater ability to get through innings efficiently.

Duke really is a more economical pitcher and that is the main reason I give him the nod in this prop. So far this season batters are swinging at 29% of his pitches outside the zone and making contact with 69% of those pitches. Compare that with Cain who is getting batters to chase on only 25.3% of his pitches. Batters are only making contact with 59.5% of those pitches. Overall, Duke gets batters to put the ball into play with fewer pitches then and with a 1.23 WHIP those are generally turning into outs. One can also look at each team's plate discipline. The Giants are `tops' in the league when it comes to swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. The Pirates aren't great but nowhere near as bad as the Giants. The last time Duke pitched against San Francisco he used up 82 pitches to complete 7 innings. Matt Cain also pitched 7 innings in that game but it took him 107 pitches to get there. The one danger picking Duke is that Pittsburgh likes to relieve Duke early in his pitch count, especially in close games. They have a lot of faith in the bullpen.