Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Thursday, September 3, 2009

September 3rd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)2-0-0 today and I finally reached that coveted blue star. Started the day with Jurgen Melzer. I was cringing at the thought of another blown streak when he lost the first set 1-6 but before I knew it he was back on top winning the next three 6-4 6-3 6-4. I avoided the Argentine soccer where Estudiantes held on for a close 2-2 draw. They were up in the first half 2-2 then suddenly around 75 minutes in San Lorenzo equalized. Close call for all those going with the odds. Then I picked up win 10 with Billingsley giving up a double and a home run after taking a no-hitter into the 5th inning. My cable provider blacked out the game right after the double, thanks for removing the anticipation I'm not a fan of watching the snail's pace of baseball anyways. College football starts tomorrow so it's on to the picks. Good luck!

No Last Hurrahs As Safin Falls In First Round
J. Melzer def. M. Safin 1-6 6-4 6-3 6-4
It looked pretty iffy after losing the first set 1-6 but Melzer found his game after that for three straight sets.
``Safin came out in the opening set and looked awe-inspiring, much like he did when he burst on the scene at the 2000 US Open and, at the ripe age of 20, upset the then 13-time Grand Slam winner and seemingly unbeatable Sampras to take his first Grand Slam title. But even as he charged out ahead, you could sense that this might get complicated for Safin. Melzer became scrappier, lengthening the points and forcing Safin to work harder. Serving at 3-4 in the second, 15-15, the two players had a long rally and Safin looked winded. He double faulted on the next point to go down 15-40. While he managed to save the two break points and hold serve, you sensed that Safin was beginning to crack."
Read More....Match Stats

Diamondbacks Four Run Fifth Proves Enough To Trip Up Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks 4 - 1 Los Angeles Dodgers
Billingsley 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 K, 1 BB
Chad Billingsley took a no-hit bid into the fifth inning before giving up four runs.
``Brandon Allen had no doubt the ball was going out this time. Sure enough, his towering drive landed halfway up the right field pavilion. He homered on the first pitch from Chad Billingsley a night after being robbed of a pinch-hit, potential game-winning two-run homer on an outstanding catch by right fielder Andre Ethier. Billingsley was cruising along, having retired the first 13 batters he faced before the D-backs got to him for three consecutive one-out hits in the fifth. Then, with two outs, the right-hander allowed another three hits in a row."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

1) Elena Dementieva (v. Melanie Oudin) vs. Dinara Safina (v. Kristina Barrois) - Dementieva wins by more games
2) Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
3) Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder vs. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday - Pujols and Holliday record more total bases
4) James Blake vs. Olivier Rochus: Blake Wins 3-0 vs. Any Other Result - Blake wins 3-0
5) Tacuary @ Sol de América - Tacuary win or draw
6) South Carolina Gamecocks @ North Carolina State Wolfpack - 47 points or more
7) San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies - San Francisco
8) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - New York
9) New York Giants @ New England Patriots - New England
10) North Texas Mean Green @ Ball State Cardinals, Ball State Scores: 39 Or Fewer vs. 40 Or More - 40 or more
11) Marc Gicquel vs. Andy Roddick - 28 games or fewer played
12) Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
13) Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos - Boise State


Elena Dementieva has better odds to win the U.S. Open crown than Dinara Safina.
1) Here I think Dementieva is just playing better tennis at the moment. She won her first round 6-1 6-2 whil Safina dropped a set in her match. I know Safina can be dangerous and she's world #1 by going deep into tournament after tournament. Last week was not a deep foray, however, as she lost in the first round. In the same tournament Dementieva beat Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova in straight sets to take another championship. SkyBet has Safina at 1/16 (-1600) with a handicap of 6 games and Dementieva at 1/33 (-3300) with a handicap of 6.5 games. Odds favor Dementieva here and I think Barrois could extend Safina's struggles. Dementieva has also won over 61% of her total games in 2009 while Safina has won 59%.

Detroit needs a solid game from Nate Robertson, especially if Carmona pitches at 100%.
2) Detroit is leading the AL Central and at 44-22 wins 2 out of every 3 games at home. Cleveland is 30-39 on the road, not terrible, but not good either. They can play well offensively and are 7th in the majors in runs scored but their pitching, especially relief pitching, has not been a strength this season. Detroit's starter Nate Robertson< has been converted from a relief pitching role in place of Armando Gallarraga. He'll probably only throw 70-80 pitches tonight but fortunately the Tigers have a solid bullpen with guys like Lyon, Rodney, Seay, and Te-Ni. Of course, if Fausto Carmona has a good game, which he does every once in a while, and Robertson folds early Cleveland could definitely pull off the win here.

3) Pujols, Pujols, Pujols. The man is a beast and while he's going to go hitless in a quarter of his games like any other top-level slugger he also leads the majors in home runs. Looking at the graphs to the right one can see spikes in Pujols overall games at 4 and 8 total bases representing his home run and multi-home run games. Those bumps are absent in Holliday's numbers but he does have a nice plateau at 3, 4, and 5 total bases so he gets a good number of extra base hits. For Milwaukee Prince Fielder is the bigger home run threat, but one can also see he goes hitless in over 30% of his games which is poor and probably a result of teams being able to pitch around him. Braun is a bigger threat than Holliday, but if John Smoltz can neutralize the threat from him I feel confident Manny Parra will give up the hits to the Cardinals duo. Braun and Fielder have a combined slugging percentage of 1.146 and Pujols and Holliday combine for a 1.193 slugging percentage, a very slight edge.
Proportions of total games with 'N' total bases.
Click image for larger view.

7) Gah, I have a bad feeling about taking the Giants here. Yes, Tim Lincecum will pitch terrifically, he does that often. The Phillies batters have a lifetime .206 batting average, .361 slugging average and an abysmal .606 OPS. I just have a bad feeling the Giants will fail to muster any run support for the guy. San Francisco is averaging just 3.69 runs per game on the road. Pedro Martinez may be old but he's still keeping Philadelphia in the game. Unless Lincecum can pitch 7 strong innings and the Giants can take a lead into the 8th I think Philadelphia finds away to manufacture a go-ahead run. Very close and I would pick Philadelphia here against any pitcher in the league, except Lincecum.

The Yankees will need those red bats swingin' as it's unlikely Chad Gaudin can shut down the Blue Jays in Toronto.
8) The Yankees have been stellar in the second half of the season, going 34-11 since the All-Star break. The Blue Jays have managed to go only 15-27 in that span. Ricky Romero is a pretty good pitcher when he's on and the Blue Jays are always tough at Rogers Centre where they are 34-32 this season. Still, the Yankees are the best offense in baseball in terms of runs, slugging, on-base, and OPS. Romero is definitely better than Chad Gaudin who has been shuffled in and out of the bullpen by the Yankees and Padres this season. If ever there were a pitching matchup Toronto could take advantage of it would be this one. Toronto has gone 1-1 with Romero pitching against New York, both in NYC and both 1 run games. I'll leave my pick on the Yankees still with Toronto's bullpen facing the Yankees' bats. They'll need 'em to make sure Gaudin doesn't put them in too big a hole.

13) Boise State is favored in this one over at 5dimes.com at -160 odds with Oregon clocking in at +140. Oregon may want revenge for the loss their suffered at the hands of the Broncos in Eugene last season but Boise State should be the better team overall this season. I also like that Boise State plays on blue colored artificial turf. That's got to be distracting if you haven't practiced on it before.

1 comment:

  1. Congratulations on hitting W10! --Me Fail English