Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Wednesday, September 2, 2009

September 2nd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-0-1 today. I took Bohemians to win by more than Derry City but I was fairly sure both teams would lose. Neither team has been able to string together four wins in a row this season reliably. Then I took Manny Ramirez to make an out with his second plate appearance, which he did. Now I'm bearing down on a W10 once again. This time I'll just keep picking like I have been rather than skipping a day waiting for something nice looking but ultimately wrong to come along. A number of solid picks to extend your streaks are up on the board tomorrow. I'll try and throw out some quick rationale for each pick rather than posting lengthy-ish previews or nothing at all. Good luck and on to the picks.

1) Jurgen Melzer vs. Marat Safin - Melzer
2) Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
3) Estudiantes La Plata @ San Lorenzo - Estudiantes La Plata win or draw
4) Richard Gasquet vs. Rafael Nadal - 28 games or more played
5) San Diego Padres (v. Nationals) vs. Oakland Athletics (vs. Royals) - Athletics have a larger victory margin
6) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - Los Angeles
7) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
8) Serena Williams vs. Melinda Czink - Williams loses 5 games or fewer
9) New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies - 10 runs or more scored
10) How Many Earned Runs Will Chad Billingsley Allow (Diamondbacks @ Dodgers): 0 or 1 vs. 2 Or More - 2 or more

1) Melzer vs. Safin: With this one the odds simply favor Melzer at 8/11 (-137.5) to evens (+100) for Safin. Throw in that Melzer is 3-1 all-time against Safin and it looks like as good a bet as any straight up tennis pick.

2) Mark Buehrle just hasn't been his old self against the Twins lately. He's pitched against them four times this season and had very different results of late. At The Cell he's given up 2 runs in 131/3 innings in two games, both in the first half of the season and both wins for the Sox. At the Metrodome, however, he gave up 13 runs in 92/3 innings over two games, both losses. The White Sox have been slumping lately and recently traded away Jim Thome. They're only 28-39 on the road as well, while Minnesota is 39-29 at home.

5) Felix Hernandez is easily in the top 3 AL pitchers but that does not really matter when facing the L.A. Angels. He's pitched against them once already this season, a 6-5 loss where King Felix gave up 6 earned runs. Last night rookie pitcher Doug Fister held the Angels down for 1 run and the Mariners won 2-1, so clearly the Angels are not invincible. I would say they have the game to lose, however. If they're batting well it doesn't matter who's pitching against them.

10) Chad Billingsley has allowed 2 or more earned runs in 21 of his 27 starts this season. Sounds pretty good, but the main caveat is that one of those 6 games allowing zero or one earned run was against the Diamondbacks, a 1-0 win on June 3rd in Los Angeles.

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