Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Monday, August 3, 2009

August 3rd, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-2-0 today. Started off nicely with win courtesy of Ukraine in Donetsk but I overslept the Brondby pick. I took the Mets hoping they'd continue to streak but they reverted back into impotent form. A lot of poor plate discipline allowed Garland to take a complete game easily. Really my baseball picks were shytt yesterday so Atlanta had no chance. Billingsley dominated and Jurrjens got blown up in the 5th. It was no good unless you're a Dodgers fan in which case it was good to see Billingsley kicking ass again. I think he'll be fine too, just a cramp. And so on to the picks.

Ukraine Jumps On England Early Once Again To Claim Under-19 Euro Championship
Ukraine U-19 2 - 0 England U-19
The sentiment here seems to be Ukraine just played a better game and may well have the more talented team.
``Ukraine became the first team to win the UEFA European Under-19 Championship on home soil as a goal early in each half from Denys Garmash and Dmytro Korkishko earned a clinical victory against England in Donetsk. As they had done in their semi-final, Yuriy Kalitvintsev's team made the perfect start with Garmash – whose double against Serbia on Thursday sealed Ukraine's place in the final – supplying another assured finish to Korkishko's near-post corner in the fifth minute. Provider turned scorer five minutes after half-time, Korkishko's perfectly-executed free-kick putting the home team in complete command and inflicting more final misery on England."
Read More....England RecapCoaches' CommentsUkraine's Korkishko CommentsMinutesPhotos

Garland Dominates Mets In Complete Game
Arizona Diamondbacks 5 - 2 New York Mets
So much for that blip of offense the Mets had managed to muster this past week.
``Jon Garland pitched his first complete game in more than a year and Chad Tracy hit a two-run double, leading the Arizona Diamondbacks to a 5-2 victory over the New York Mets on Sunday. With streaking slugger Mark Reynolds getting a scheduled rest, Augie Ojeda started at third base for the Diamondbacks and reached base safely all five times up from the No. 8 spot in the lineup. Jeff Francoeur homered for the Mets (50-54), who had won six of eight. David Wright grounded into two double plays and finished 0 for 4, ending an 11-game hitting streak."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Dodgers Find Their Groove To Take Series In Atlanta
Los Angeles Dodgers 9 - 1 Atlanta Braves
Billingsley was on a major roll when he left the game with a leg cramp. Chances are it's nothing.
``Kemp had three hits, including a three-run homer in the fifth and a two-run single in the eighth as the Dodgers outhit the Braves 19-5. Andre Ethier and James Loney also had three hits. Chad Billingsley (11-6) threw five scoreless innings before leaving with a cramp in his right hamstring. Billingsley gave up only two hits with one walk and nine strikeouts in five innings. After leaving a combined five runners on base in the third and fourth innings, Jurrjens' luck ran out in the fifth. After leaving a combined five runners on base in the third and fourth innings, Jurrjens' luck ran out in the fifth."
Read More....Box ScorePhotos

1) Kurt Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Edwards has a better final position
2) Jeff Gordon vs. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has a better final position

3) Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
4) Djugården @ Gefle IF - Gefle IF win
5) Dan Haren (v. Mets) vs. Justin Verlander (v. Orioles) - Verlander records more strikeouts
6) Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds - Chicago
7) Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres - Atlanta
8) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland

1,2) More or less just going by these odds from BetUs. Edwards seems to be favored quite a bit more than Kurt most places I've looked at while Hamlin and Gordon is predicted to be much closer. Here's the lineup for the race as well. Busch starts 4th, Edwards 5th, Jeff Gordon is 3rd and Hamlin is 6th.

Plate appearances per strikeout through August 2nd, 2009.
Click image for larger view.
5) Looking at this matchup it seems to be a fairly close one. Dan Haren has an 8.88 K/9 and averages 6.95 strikeouts per game. Justin Verlander has a 10.65 K/9 and averages 7.82 strikeouts per game. That's especially impressive for Verlander considering he's pitching against a designated hitter each time out while Haren gets a couple shots at the pitcher each game. Combine that with the fact that Haren is pitching on the road against the Mets while Verlander is at home and I have to give the advantage to Verlander, hands down. Looking at the graph on the right the Mets take more plate appearances to strike out than any other team in the league. The Orioles are right up there as well but for the past month alone the Orioles are down to 5.56 PA/SO while the Mets are still league leaders at 7.06. Even if the Orioles hadn't been striking out more often I still wouldn't bet on the Mets swinging and missing or watching the ball slide into the zone more often than Baltimore. Of course, Verlander could possibly get chased early by Baltimore and end up with a low strikeout count but I think Haren will have to pitch a complete game to get more than 6.

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