Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

July 7th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)An improvement today as I only lost twice from three picks. I managed to pick 5 winners and 4 losers, but boy oh boy were they some losers. The Reds lost by 21 runs, and I also took the Orioles who managed one hit and walked on to base exactly zero times. At least Kalmar FF came through for me. And so on to the picks.

Rasmus Elm's Brace Sends Malmö To First Home Defeat
Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Malmö FF
Malmö FF took a 1-0 lead into the half. Rasmus Elm scored two second half goals against Malmö FF to lead Kalmar FF to victory. Elm was named to the Starting XI after a strong showing with the Swedish U-21 squad in ithe FIFA Championships and it proved to be the right decision.
``Två kanonskott. Två mål. Rasmus Elm visade att hans lysande insatser i U21-EM inte var någon tillfällighet efter att ha sett till att Kalmar vände och vann med 2-1 borta mot Malmö. "Nu har jag ännu fler bra minnen härifrån", sa matchvinnaren efter de dramatiska slutminuterna."
Read more....Box Score

Phillies Record Most Lopsided Victory Since 1897
Philadelphia Phillies 22 - 1 Cincinnati Reds
21 hits, 22 runs, and every Phillies starter had a hit. Not since the late 19th century had Philadelphia defeated an opponent so heavily. There would be photos of the Phillies here but they were mostly just of men rounding the bases. Over and over again. Definitely one for the books.
``Jimmy Rollins led off Philadelphia's first with a walk and Victorino followed with a liner into the right-field seats. Cueto struck out Utley and Ryan Howard lined out, but the next eight batters reached. Werth singled and Dobbs drove one out to right. Cueto then hit Pedro Feliz and walked Carlos Ruiz before Hamels ripped a double down the right-field line to score both runners. Rollins doubled to left-center, scoring Hamels for a 7-0 lead. Cueto left after he walked Victorino. Danny Herrera came in to face Utley, who hit a towering drive to right-center to make it 10-0. The previous worst defeat for the Reds, baseball's first professional franchise, was 26-6 on July 26, 1892. That also was against the Phillies."
Read more....Box Score

Christ, Baltimore Sucked
Seattle Mariners 5 - 0 Baltimore Orioles
OK, by this point I was just getting frustrated at taking the absolute worst performers in a feeble attempt to extend my streak.
``Jarrod Washburn tossed a one-hitter for his ninth career complete game, leading the Seattle Mariners to a 5-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night. Washburn faced just 28 batters, becoming the second Mariners pitcher in team history with a one-hit shutout with no walks (Jim Beattie, 1983 vs. Royals). Washburn recorded the first one-hitter at Safeco Field and 10th in franchise history."
Read more....Box Score

1) Which Team Will Win Stage 4 Of The Tour De France Team Trial: Astana vs. Any Other Team - Astana
2) St. Patricks @ Cork City - 2 goals or fewer
3) Tampa Bay Rays (v. Blue Jays) vs. Boston Red Sox (v. Athletics) - Boston win margin
4) Kansas City Royals hits off Verlander vs. Justin Verlander strikeouts - Verlander strikeouts
5) Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets - New York
6) Albert Pujols vs. Prince Fielder - Fielder records more total bases
7) New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins - New York
8) Chicago Sky @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
10) Florida Marlins @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco
11) How Many Runs Will Be Scored In The 7th Inning: 0 runs vs. 1 or more - 0 runs


March 13, @Cork City 0 - 1 St. Patricks
May 9, @St Patricks 0 - 3 Cork City
2) St. Patricks Athletic return to Turner's Cross today, the site of their first victory of the season, a 1-0 defeat of Cork City F.C. Conditions were wet on that day in Cork and they look to be wet again today with thunderstorms forecast for the region through the afternoon and evening. Since that time Cork City have earned their revenge with a 3-0 win at Richmond Park in Inchicore. One can see the highlights of that match by following this link. Two of the goals were scored on corner kicks with a third first half goal scored by Faz Kudozovic from a fair distance. Shortly afterwards St. Patricks had a man sent off and the scoring was more or less completed.

Looking at the tables for the League of Ireland one can see the goals scored and allowed for each team. Both Cork City and Saints average 2.4 goals scored, in total, in an average match. At Turner's Cross, however, Cork City are scoring only 0.8 goals per match and allowing 0.6 goals (1.4 total), while away from home St. Patricks are scoring only 0.6 goals and allowing 1.1 (1.7 total). Cork City has professed a desire to play strong defense as an important factor in their ability to win the League championship.

We want to win the league, and we won’t stop in our pursuit of the league title, but the main thing for us at the moment is to keep clean sheets and try to build another run....
---Cork City coach Paul Doolin

Both sides are facing their share of injury concerns. Mark Quigley (Fw, jaw), Mark Leech (Fw, leg), Gary Dempsey (Mf, leg) and Damien Lynch(Df, ankle), and John Lester (Mf, suspension) are all out for St. Patricks who will also see Dave Partridge (Df) and Darragh Ryan (Df) return. Robert Mezeckis (Df, Achilles) and Billy Dennehy (Fw, hamstring) are still sidelined for Cork City, but Shane Duggan (Mf) will return to the lineup.

Overall it would seem that Cork City should be able to win this match, but I do not think they will be able to score from set pieces as well as they did in their 3-0 victory over St. Patrick's. With important offensive components like Quigley and Dempsey out for Saints they should be focused on keeping Cork out of the net as a low scoring draw would be a good result for them at this point in the season.

Click above for larger view. Note, it's rotated on it's side, click here for unrotated image.
4) Well, in terms of K/9 and hits per nine innings (H/9) Justin Verlander is the best pitcher the Royals have faced in their last 15 games. Of the 15 pitchers they've faced they have had more hits than been struck out 11 times. The four pitchers who limited their hits were Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Roy Oswalt, and Armando Galarraga. Looking at the graphs on the right Floyd and Danks had the same number of hits off of them as batters struck out and Galarraga and Oswalt were the only pitchers to win this prop against the Royals. The graphs also show how pitchers fared against the Royals as compared to their season averages. About half of the pitchers Kansas City faced, including 4 of the last 5, gave up fewer hits to the Royals than they have on average. Only about a third of the pitchers have struck out more Royals than they do to the average team they face. To me it would seem this prop will be more about the Royals getting hits more than avoiding strikeouts. Verlander, even on a bad day, should be expected to get 5 or 6 strikeouts tonight and 8 to 10 if he's having a good night. So the question will be, how many hits will he give up? Well, he's given up 6 or more hits in 9 of his 17 starts, so about half the time. 5 to 8 hits seems to be right around par for Verlander over the past month. He's won this prop in 10 of 17 starts and lost in only 5, so while his recent performance this month suggests the result will be close I think he's a bit more likely to record more strikeouts. He's been wicked against right handers this season so one may wish to check Kansas City's lineup to see if they have 4 or 5 right handers in there for the game. Good luck.

Albert Pujols' (red) and Prince Fielder's (blue) total bases over their last 30 games. Click for larger view.
6) The graph to the left shows Pujols' and Fielders' recent total base production. One thing that stuck out to me is that Fielder has only one run of three games with 2 or fewer total bases while Pujols had a couple such runs of three games and a stretch of five games with two or fewer total bases. Pujols also has four multi-homer games in his last 30, and has had just one single in his last two games, so he would seem to be due to go off for a huge game today... or he could rack up another stretch of three games without doing much. Both starting pitchers have been doing well with Adam Wainwright recording a 1.27 WHIP in his last three starts in 22 innings and Yovani Gallardo recording a 1.06 WHIP in 211/3 innings. Fielder is only 5 for 21 against Wainwright in his career, with one home run and four singles, a .381 slugging average while Pujols is 2 for 8 against Gallardo with a home run and a single, a .625 slugging average. Honestly, this is another one where if I were betting money I would have to put it down on Pujols. I am putting faith in Gallardo over Wainwright in picking Fielder here.

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