Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Monday, July 6, 2009

July 6th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-4-0 yesterday as I continue to fail at ticking a box. If I'd been able to pick all 5 MLB games I'd have been 5-0. Went down with 3 sets for the Federer/Roddick match. Yea sure Federer started flicking shots wide in the first set and Roddick gave up a 5-1 lead in the second set tiebreak but that was an epic match that would never have gone straight sets without some ridiculous luck. Roddick represented his coach, his nation, and himself and I hope we get to see him in the finals of some more Slams in the near future. I thought Roddick played very well, not just using his power, but also softer shots, slices and the like, to work Federer around the court. He broke Federer more often than he was broken and I think if he had won we'd be talking about how much he deserved to win. Certainly nobody deserved to lose that match.

My next loss came with Gefle IF and from what I can gather from Swedish-language news they were inches away from victory as Jonatan Berg hit the crossbar on two separate occasions. Then got a win with Minnesota, followed by a loss with both WNBA home teams losing. Detroit was a tough overtime loss but the Sparks just failed at playing basketball, gave up over 100 points. Yikes. So then, on to the picks.

Federer Makes History In Epic Fashion
R. Federer def. A. Roddic 5-7 7-6(6) 7-6(5) 3-6 16-14
Andy Roddick's disappointment was palpable and nobody could fault him for that. It was almost a shame Federer's record setting victory had to come at such a price, and yet it feels most fitting that such an amazing effort were required to become amazing.
``Federer's discomfort at being so brashly challenged on a court he has come to regard as his own was beginning to show as the second set moved into a tiebreak. As the Centre Court audience roared in disbelief, two errors by the Swiss left Roddick with four points for a two-set lead. Now was the time for Federer to unveil the genius that had stood him such good stead in previous Wimbledon finals - and he responded in brilliant fashion, winning the next six points in a row as, for the first time, Roddick's nerves betrayed him."
Read more....Match StatsFederer InterviewRoddick InterviewRoddick's Bitter MisstepPhotos

Jonatan Berg Is Twice Denied Victory By The Crossbar
Gefle IF 1 -1 BK Häcken
After BK Häcken scored they let off the gas and let Gefle dominate. Jonatan Berg scored on a free kick and had two other shots rebound off the crossbar and BK Häcken held on for the draw. BK Häcken have never lost to Gefle IF in something like 7 matches.
``Jonatan Berg var matchens klart bästa spelare i kvällens oavgjorda match mellan Gefle och Häcken. Geflespelaren svarade för lagets kvitteringsmål med en läcker frispark och var vid två tillfällen en hårsmån från att skjuta samtliga tre poäng i hamn, men båda gångerna var ribban i vägen."
Read more....Box Score

Blackburn Nearly Records Complete Game Shutout Of First Place Tigers
Minnesota Twins 6 - 2 Detroit Tigers
Rick Porcello was pretty solid but for one inning, and the defense didn't help him out there either.
``Nick Blackburn (7-4) took a shutout into the ninth inning before left fielder Denard Span dropped a line drive for an error and Brandon Inge followed with a two-run home run, his 19th. Blackburn won for only the second time in his last six turns, but he's been pitching plenty well. Establishing himself this season as Minnesota's best starter, Blackburn has yielded three earned runs or less in each of his last nine appearances and completed six innings or more each time. This was his third complete game in his last four starts. He gave up seven hits and struck out six. The Twins scored all of their runs in the fourth against rookie Rick Porcello (8-6), who threw seven shutout innings at them during a defeat in Detroit on May 5th."
Read more....Box Score

Broxton, Smith Miss Chance To Eclipse Sun
Connecticut Sun 95 - 92 Detroit Shock (OT)
Kara Broxton missed a pair of free throws and Katie Smith missed a shot with 10 seconds to go. The Sun made their shots when they counted most and won the game.
``Mike Thibault never doubted his decision to leave a roster spot open for Sandrine Gruda. She immediately proved her coach right, scoring a career-high 23 points in her season debut and Erin Phillips scored six of her 19 points in overtime as the Connecticut Sun beat the Detroit Shock 95-92 on Sunday night."
Read more....Box Score

Phoenix Passes Century Mark In Second Half Blowout Of L.A.
Phoenix Mercury 104 - 89 Los Angeles Sparks
Wow, impressive effort by Phoenix or pathetic effort by L.A., either way 100 points in 40 minutes is pretty good.
``Los Angeles held a 53-45 lead with 38 seconds gone in the second half, but Bonner had 12 points and six rebounds in the third quarter. The Mercury led 81-70 at the end of the period. Phoenix began the fourth quarter with an 11-0 spurt. The Mercury also made 31 of 37 free throws in the game. Parker, who gave birth to a daughter on May 13, had six points and four rebounds in 20 minutes."
Read more....Box Score

1) Kalmar FF @ Malmö FF - Kalmar FF win or draw
2) How Many Home Runs Will Be Hit (Blue Jays @ Yankees): 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 4 or more
3) Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs - Atlanta
4) Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies - Cincinnati
5) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros - Houston
6) San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
7) Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
8) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore
9) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5th Inning (Marlins @ Giants): 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 3 or fewer


1) Kalmar FF visit the Swedbank Stadion to take on Malmö FF with a win for either side elevating them in the tables. Kalmar FF are currently two points ahead of Malmö FF, in 8th and 9th place, respectively. Though Malmö have traditionally been one of the best teams in the Allsvenskan it has been Kalmar which has seen the most recent success finishing 1st in the Allsvenskan last season. They will be playing in the Champions League qualification round next week while Malmö will simply focus on righting ship domestically.

Kalmar FF had gotten off to a terrible start after their breakthrough season last year picking up only two points from their first five matches. They've managed to turn things around since then and are currently one of the better teams in the Allsvenskan on the road with a 1-3-2 (W-D-L) record and +1 goal differential (10 GS:9 GA). Malmö FF were expected to be a strong side this season but have defied those experts' predictions and are yet waiting to break into the upper half of the table. At home they have yet to lose a game outright, but have also failed to win all three points more often than not. Malmö FF have a 2-4-0 (W-D-L) record with a +4 differential (8 GS:4 GA) at Swedbank Stadion this season.

Recent Form
Malmö FFKalmar FF
GAIS Göteborg (2:2)GAIS Göteborg (2:2)
Örebro SK (0:0)IFK Göteborg (1:2)
Helsingborgs IF (0:1)Hammarby IF (4:1)
Malmö FF (home); Kalmar FF (away)

Looking at the table to the left one can see that neither side has been terribly successful lately with Kalmar FF doing well to pick up draws on the road and Malmö FF continuing to struggle to win at home. As far as injury concerns go both teams will face some significant players from their midfield. For Malmö FF Miljan Mutavdzic(M) and Jimmy Durmaz(M) are still injured while Robert Åhman-Persson(M) is doubtful. Kalmar FF will have to do without Mikael Eklund(D), Marcus Lindberg(D), Tobias Carlsson(D), Erik Israelsson(M) and winter acquisition Lourival Assis(M) who all remain injured except for Carlsson who is ill.

(potential) Malmö FF Starting XI (4-4-1-1): Jonas Sandqvist; Ulrich Vinzents, Jimmy Dixon, Gabriel, Ricardinho; Guillermo Molins, Robert Åhman-Persson, Daniel Andersson, Jiloan Hamad; Wilton Figueiredo; Agon Mehmeti
(potential) Kalmar FF Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Petter Wastå; Emin Nouri, Joachim Lantz, Stefan Larsson, Petter Lennartsson; Tobias Eriksson, Henrik Rydström; Daniel Sobralense, Rasmus Elm, Abiola Dauda; David Elm

I feel Kalmar FF are the stronger side this season and with so many injuries to the midfield of each team I expect the offenses to generate few goals.

Prediction: Malmö FF 1 - 1 Kalmar FF

Graph showing total home runs at Yankee Stadium when Pettitte started. Table showing home run production for NYY and TOR over the past week, and general stats for the season.
Click for larger view.
2) Essentially it would be an exceptional game for Andy Pettitte and Ricky Romero to start, pitch 6 or 7 innings apiece, and combine for 4 home runs conceded, even at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte is giving up a home run every 42 pitches swung at on average and Romero is conceding a home run every 30 pitches swung at. Batters are swinging at less than half of their pitches this season, however. Romero has given up 9 home runs in 12 starts this season, and five of those were in two games where he was returning from a right adductor strain. Pettitte has given up 12 home runs in 16 starts, though 10 of those have been in 9 starts at Yankee Stadium. Overall, I think 3 home runs are most likely but have a gut feeling Toronto will be able to belt off an extra one.

Mike Hampton pitches against San Diego on June 30th after returning from a minor groin injury. He'll look to continue that success against Pittsburgh tonight (0.90 career ERA, 3-0 record against this season).
5) The Houston Astros will host the last place Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at Minute Maid Park after finally managing to score some runs against the Giants in their last series. Facing Sadowski, Lincecum, and Randy Johnson the Astros managed to bat only .175 with a .309 slugging average. That slugging average is fairly impressive considering but was due mainly to the three home runs they hit off of Johnson in the final game. They'll hope that was not simply a poor performance on Johnson's part and I'm inclined to agree. They may have just broken out of a slump, but it's tough to avoid slumping when going up against Lincecum and, apparently, against Sadowski who's debuted in the Majors with 13 scoreless innings pitched.

Houston will be starting Mike Hampton tonight and they have to be pleased he's recovered from a groin injury in time to face his personal whipping boys. Houston is 6-3 against Pittsburgh this season with three of those wins coming with Hampton pitching. Hampton has a 4-5 record along with a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season, but against the Pirates he has a 3-0 record, a 0.90 ERA, and a 0.75 WHIP. It's not just this season either. Over his career he is 13-3 (.813) with and a 2.44 ERA.

Virgil Vasquez will be making his third start for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in the spot vacated by the disgruntled Ian Snell. Vasquez has been fairly good in his first two starts this season, giving up two earned runs to Kansas City in his first start and three earned runs, including two homers, to the Chicago Cubs in his second. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up at AAA Indianapolis, except that he is walking more batters and giving up more home runs, just limiting the runs as he did in AAA. I imagine at some point, and soon, he will be unable to keep his opponent from having a huge inning. Judging by Hampton's success against the Pirates over the years Houston may not need that to happen to earn victory tonight, but it sure wouldn't hurt. As long as Hampton can do his thing the Astros should be fine tonight.

It looks like the real wildcard here is Sean West who can be either rock solid or solid shit.
Click for larger version.

Ouch, Cueto failed me big time and the Phillies are hitting as if they just made a deal with the devil. Good luck with the evening picks. Bergesen is something like 5-2 and I don't expect the Mariners to keep hitting as well as they have been, but who knows eh?


  1. Huh. The 3 home runs WAS most likely.

    BTW, Bruney continues to suck, making Phil Hughes' return to starting more problematic for the Yankee manager. The Bomber starters have too many starts in the 3-4-5 inning range not to have a quality mid-relief guy who can go 3 innings (or more), and Hughes is looking like that guy, if not the pure 8th-inning setup man Bruney was supposed to be.

  2. I would've guessed 4+ home runs for certain if someone from the future had told me Hinske and MacDonald would each bomb one. ARod and Teix royally blew... scary they still nearly won.

  3. Nice pick on the Reds. Misread that one... =P