April 9th, 2009 Picks

1-1-0 again. I started off picking China in curling. The small asterisk in the Curlcast boxscores denotes which team has the last rock advantage in the first end, and in every other end afterwards. China and Denmark traded scoring rocks when they had the advantage but Denmark could not capitalize in the 4^th end and China took a 4-1 advantage after the 5^th. Denmark then made a comeback, keeping China scoreless in the 7^th end and tying it up 4-4 after the 8^th end. China and Denmark each scored two in the next two ends and it was tied 6-6 and went into an 11^th end, with China having the last rock advantage. They made good and won the draw 7-6 over Denmark.

My second pick was the Red Sox over the Rays. This time the Rays struck first with Iwamura scoring after Youkilis committed an error on a throw to second. Youkilis was trying to throw out Bartlett but the ball bounced off Bartlett’s back and into left field, allowing the run to score. Youkilis made up for it in the bottom of the 3rd when he drove in Pedroia to tie the score at 1-1. In the 5^th inning the Rays finally figured out Lester’s stuff. There was a bunt single RBI, SS-2B-3B double play that left the runner at 3B safe to cross home and a Carlos Pena two run homer, his first hit this season.

Evan Longoria extended the lead to 6-1 with a solo home run in the 8^th inning. The Red Sox had an aborted comeback attempt in the bottom of the inning. Bay hit an RBI double and Howell hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases with the tying run coming up to bat. Howell saved the inning with a strikeout leaving all three runners stranded. The Rays got another run in the 9^th inning and Grant Balfour retired the Sox 1-2-3 to finish them off. Tampa Bay won at Fenway 7-2. So on to the picks of another day.

1) Ian Woosnam vs. Chez Reavie – Reavie cards a lower front 9 score
2) South Africa vs. Australia – South Africa
3) Camilo Villegas vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
4) Olympique Marseille @ Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk win
5) Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
6) Tiger Woods vs. Stewart Cink or Jeev Singh – Woods cards a lower 1st round score
7) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
8) Manchester City @ Hamburg SV – Hamburg SV win
9) Bemidji State vs. Miami (OH) – Bemidji State
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
11) New Jersey Devils @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
12) Vermont vs. Boston University – Boston University
13) Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
15) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.

Analysis
1) Ian Woosnam has played in 20 Masters Tournaments in his career, winning his fourth in 1991. Recently he has not been as successful, finishing 44th last year, and missing the cut from 2001 to 2006. He finished 40^th in 2000. This is Chez Reavie’s 2nd Masters, with his only other appearance being in 2002 where he missed the cut with a score of +16. On the front 9 Reavie did not do too terribly, however, scoring +2 in the first round and +3 in the second. Woosnam’s front 9 scores from 2001-2006/2008 are: +1, -1, +2, +3, +3, E, +3, +4, +2, +1, +2, +1, +5, +2, E, and +4. Woosnam’s average and median score is +2, while Reavie’s average and median score is +2.5. As far as 1st round front nines Woosnam has carded: +1, +3, +3, +2, +2, +5, E. Average: +2.29, median: +2. Reavie’s first round average and median is +2. Reavie won the RBC Canadian Open last year. Past winners at the RBC include Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. Reavie made $1.4 million on the PGA Tour in 2008 and finished 71^st on the money list but played in 30 events. Ian Woosnam made just over $200,000 on the Champions Tour (for golfers over 50 years old) and finished 66^th on the money list, but only played in 9 of 29 events.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Villegas’ front 9 scores in 2008 and 2007 were: +1, +4, +3, +6. His first round front 9 scores are +1 and +3. Mickelson has played in 16 Masters before, and from 2008-2001 he has scored: -1, -3, +1, E, +4, +2, E, +4, -1, -1, -2, -2 (won in ‘06), -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, E, -3, +2 (won in ’04), +2, -4, +1, -1, -2, -1, -2, E, -1, -3, -2, -2. Mickelson’s first round front 9 scores were -1, +4, -1, -1, -1, +2, -2, -1. So aside from 2007 where he averaged +2.5 on the front nine Lefty looks like an awesome pick to win with Villegas averaging +3.5 on the front 9’s and +2 in the first round compared to Mickelson’s averages of -0.6 overall and -0.1 in the first round.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) Shakhtar Donetsk play in the Ukrainian Premiere League and have notched 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the UEFA Cup they have played two home matches, one a 2-0 win over CSKA Moscow and the other a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. In December the traveled to Spain and defeated Barcelona 3-2, avenging an earlier home defeat. In their previous home match in the Champions League they defeated FC Basel 5-0. All in all Shakhtar are 4-0-2 (W-D-L) at home in UEFA Cup and Champions League matches, with 12 goals scored and 3 goals against. They will be missing Igor Duljaj who has played well for them in the UEFA Cup but has also been a substitute or missing from some of their more impressive Champions League victories. Olympique Marseille play in the French Lige 1. They have 16 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses domestically. In the UEFA Cup they squeaked past Twente Enschede after a shoot out and only managed to defeat Ajax Amsterdam with an extra-time goal. They will be missing strikers Brandao and Wiltord. Brandao was recently signed away from Shakhtar Donetsk and has come on well for Marseille with a goal in each of Marseille’s previous two domestic matches. Marseille are 2-1-3 in UEFA Cup and Champions League away matches with 5 goals scored and 7 goals against. Odds makers have Shakhtar Donetsk winning at +100, Marseille winning at +250 and a draw at +225.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

8) Hamburg SV are riddled with injuries at the moment and are having difficulty putting together a full 14 man squad. Mladen Petric is fully fit, however, and if Guerrero is able to play that would but Hamburg’s top two goal scorers on the pitch. Ivica Olic is also a probable starter. Petric is Hamburg SV’s leading goal scorer in domestic play and Olic is the leading scorer in UEFA Cup play with 7 goals overall, 5 goals in the past 5 matches, and at least one goal in 4 of the past 5. Manchester City will be without defender Vincent Kompany and midfielder Nigel De Jong. Manchester is a +280 to +300 underdog with a draw at +225 odds. Hamburg has even odds placed on them and some books have them as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

10) Parra has done well against the Giants, pitching in 5 games in 2008 and 2007 with an ERA of 2.95. At AT&T Park Parra has pitched 10²/₃ innings with 3 earned runs allowed for a ERA of 2.53. Parra is 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Cain has pitched 13 innings against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.54. At AT&T Park his ERA against the Brewers was 4.50 in one game which the Giants lost.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Ottawa is riding a 9 game home winning streak and have won their last 3 overall. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. Ottawa is 0-2-1 against New Jersey this season with all three losses coming against Clemmensen in net for the Devils. It is likely to be Brodeur in net for the Devils in this game facing off against Alex Auld. Ottawa is a slight favorite on the money lines.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

13) Dallas is 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their past 5 games while allowing 3.2 goals. Against Colorado this season they are 1-2-0 against the Avalanche this season with the lone win being in a shootout at home. Colorado are even worse lately going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games and 1-4-0 at home recently. They have lost their past 4 games at home as they recently went through an 8 game losing streak. Their past two games have shown a return to form, however. They won at Vancouver 4-1 against Roberto Luongo and a team who had been undefeated in regulation in their last 12 home games. They then lost in San Jose in a shootout. Budaj will start for the Avalanche while Matt Climie is probable to start for Dallas before he returns to the minor leagues.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

15) Kobe Bryant has won this prop in the previous three meetings with the Denver Nuggets this season. The first two matchups were in November and Andrew Bynum was playing. Kobe won 33-17 and 29-20. The third matchup was in February with Bynum out and Kobe won 29-24. Andrew Bynum is reported to be returning to the lineup for this game which could make it much more difficult for Anthony collect rebounds or score. Another scenario is that the Lakers attempt to involve Bynum in the offense immediately, maximizing his touches on each possession leading to Bryant shooting fewer shots and scoring fewer points. I will take Bryant to score more points against a Nuggets team that allows over 100 points per game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less