Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

click it

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

April 8th, 2009 Picks

1-1-0 today. It all started off nicely as I finally strung together consecutive wins for the 2nd time this round when I picked the Red Sox over the Rays. It started off well when Pedroia hit a solo home run in the bottom of the first. The Rays tied things up in the third off a sacrifice fly. Boston retook the lead immediately as Pedroia and Youkilis got on third and first base with one out and the Sox batted in three runs with their next three at bats. Boston had a tough time scoring in the next few innings and left more than one runner on third base stranded, but Jason Varitek had a solo home run in the sixth to extend their lead to 5-1. In the 8th inning Bartlett and Iwamura both batted onto base and stole third and second respectively. An Evan Longoria single netted two runs and Boston went into the 9th inning up 5-3. Papelbon had two strikeouts in the ninth to finish the save and Boston won 5-3. Josh Beckett had a terrific outing with 10 strikeouts in 7 innings and an ERA of 1.29.

My second pick of the day was the Miami Heat. It was looking bad when Miami went into the half down 40-30 to the Hornets. That’s right, the Hornets scored all of 40 points in the first half and still had a 10 point lead. The Heat battled back behind the fantastic play of Dwyane Wade, including an incredible assist as he drove to the basket and dished out to James Jones in traffic. Jones swished the three pointer to put the Heat up 76-72. David West cut the deficit to 2 for the Hornets with 42 seconds remaining. Miami ran the clock down as far as they possibly could and Michael Beasley drew a foul with no time on the shot clock.

Beasley went to the line and knocked down both to put the Heat back up 78-74. Chris Paul drove coast to coast and cut the lead back down to 2 with 13 seconds remaining. Dwyane Wade was fouled quickly and went to the line where he missed the first free throw and made the second, giving the Hornets a chance to tie the game. Rasual Butler mishandled the pass on the ensuing possession but managed to track it down and threw up a 30 footer with no time on the clock and two defenders in his face. It went in and the game went to overtime. New Orleans took a four point lead but Miami tied it back up at 87-87 with a three pointer by Wade. David West made a jumper and Dwyane Wade fumbled the dribble away with two seconds remaining. The Hornets made their free throws down the stretch and ended up winning 93-87. Wade ended up getting ejected and picking up another technical after he was tossed. So on to the picks.

1) Denmark vs. China – China
2) Ivan Ljubicic vs. Frederico Gil – Gil
3) Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins – 5 or more runs through the 4th inning
4) Chelsea @ Liverpool – Liverpool win
5) Luca Toni vs. Thierry Henry – Toni gets more goals and assists
6) Masters Par 3 Contest: American winner vs. Non-American winner – American winner
7) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
8) Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
10) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – New York
11) Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks – Detroit
12) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Cleveland
13) Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks – Utah
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland
15) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee

1) China is currently 2-5 in this years World Championships and Denmark is 4-3. Denmark’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 11-17 (0.393 win pct.) while China’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 6-8 (0.429 win pct.). The teams who have defeated Denmark have a record of 10-11 (0.476 win pct.) and the teams who have defeated China have a record of 22-13 (0.629 win pct.). Last year in the Worlds China finished 3rd with a bronze medal and Denmark finished tied for 9th place. China defeated Team Canada 6-5 in that competition and defeated Denmark 8-5 as well. The teams are composed of the same players as last year but the Denmark club has rearranged the positions each man plays. The Chinese curlers do so as a full-time job while the Danish curling club is part time. The article I mentioned the other day says China has a chance of being in the top 4 and making the playoffs while Denmark is a long shot to make the playoffs and “…should finish in the bottom four.”
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) The Florida Marlins have had their bats cracking against the hapless Nationals pitchers in the first two games this season. In the first game John Lannan had given up 6 runs to the Marlins by the end of the third inning and in the second game Scott Olsen had given up 8 runs. Over the past three years Lannan and Olsen have both done much better with Lannan having given up 9 runs in 30 innings and Olsen having given up 36 runs in 89 innings pitched. That means on average Lannan was allowing one run in 4 innings and Olsen was giving up 1 to 2 runs in that time. Daniel Cabrera has a 4.66 ERA in the past three Aprils and Volstad has never pitched in April but has a 2.88 ERA overall. That comes out to 3 to 4 runs being scored through 4 innings, but with the way the Marlins have been hitting there should be 5 or more runs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) In the past 2 years Liverpool and Chelsea have played 10 times with 5 Premiere League matches, 4 Champions League face offs, and a Carling Cup tilt. Liverpool’s record in those 10 is 4-3-3 (W-D-L), with their record at Anfield being 3-2-0. Liverpool are 5-0-0 in their past five matches in all competitions while Chelsea are 3-1-1 with a loss at Tottenham Hotspur and a draw at Juventus. This year Liverpool are 2-0-0 against Chelsea in the Premiere League. In the first game at Stamford Liverpool won 1-0 after Chelsea scored an own goal. In the second game at Anfield Chelsea’s Frank Lampard was sent off in the 60th minute with the score at 0-0. Liverpool’s Fernando Torres scored two goals on the 10-man Chelsea, one in the 89th minute, and on in the third minute of injury time. In one of the draws Chelsea had at Anfield Liverpool was leading 1-0 after a Dirk Kuyt goal in the 43rd minute. Then in the fifth minute of injury time at the end of the game Riise accidentally headed in a shot in his own goal and Chelsea came out with a miracle draw. Liverpool has been nearly unbeatable at home even for Chelsea, but in this rivalry anything can and has happened.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) The par 3 contest is where Masters participants, past par 3 contest winners, and ‘Honorary Invitees’ compete on a 9 hole par 3 course. In the past participants have had their children caddie for them and even take putts on the green for them. Tiger Woods will not be participating and Phil Mickelson probably will. I have not been able to find a list of participants.
Confidence: W0 streak or less

9) Aside from the Red Sox being one of the more heavily favored teams to win in Vegas out of the 15 MLB games being played today you have Jon Lester on the mound. Over the past 3 years Lester has a 6-1 record at Fenway against the Rays with a 2.54 ERA in 39 innings pitched. Scott Kazmir is 3-5 at Fenway in that time with a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings. Kazmir has pitched 19 scoreless innings in three games at Fenway but the Rays are only 1-2 in those games.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

12) Texas are -110 favorites at home making after winning the first game against Cleveland 9-1 two nights ago. Carmona is pitching for Cleveland and he is 2-3 overall with a 4.39 ERA in 28.67 innings pitched. At Rangers Ballpark Carmona has pitched 14 innings over the past 3 years and he has allowed 13 hits and zero runs. His ERA against Texas in Texas is 0.00 with a record of 2-0. In the past 3 years Padilla has an ERA of 7.46 against the Indians and a 1-4 record. At home Padilla has an ERA of 8.81 against the Indians and an 0-3 record. That sounds pretty good for Cleveland but if their bats are missing like two nights ago they’ll have a hard time winning.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

13) Utah has won only once this season on the road against a team with a record above .500, two nights ago in New Orleans. Deron Williams and the Jazz have been fairly dominant against Chris Paul and the Hornets since they entered the league so the win may or may not be a breakthrough games in terms of finding a way to win on the road. C.J. Miles is out injured for the Jazz and Andrei Kirilenko is starting in his place. The Mavericks are coming off an incredible 140-116 win at home over the Suns where Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for 3rd all-time in assists. I can see them having a bit of a let-down after that game. It will be up to Kirilenko to slow down the incredibly athletic Josh Howard and for Ronnie Brewer to take advantage of an incredible mismatch a shooting guard any time Dallas attempts to play J.J. Barea or Jason Terry alongside Kidd. Dirk Nowitzki should be able to score easily around Carlos Boozer since the Jazz can ill-afford to move Kirilenko onto Nowitzki with Howard on the court.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

15) The San Francisco Giants are slightly favored in Vegas to win at home after winning the first game 10-6. Last year, in 6 games, the Brewers outscored the Giants by an average score of 8.17 to 3.00, and were 6-0 against the Giants. Using Bill James’ pythagorean expectation and last years’ stats the Brewers have a 90.5 percent expectation to win, but from the score of the last game the Giants have an 80 percent expectation. Yovani Gallardo has a 1-1 record against the Giants with a 7.72 ERA, though at AT&T Park Gallardo is 0-1 with an ERA of 15.00. Randy Johnson is 0-2 against the Brewers in the past three years and has a 17.17 ERA at AT&T Park against the Brewers in 3.67 innings pitched.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

No comments:

Post a Comment