Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Friday, April 3, 2009

April 3rd, 2009 Picks

Terrible day for my picks yesterday and another 1-1-0 day for me on the Streak. My first pick was the 5 goals or fewer in the Rangers/Hurricanes game. It was a risky pick with the past five games Lundqvist had started on the road for New York going over. The two teams each scored a goal in the first two periods with Cam Ward doing a fine job considering the number of shots New York was getting. Then in the third period the Hurricanes put two in the net about 30 seconds apart with under 8 minutes to go. Carolina won the game 4-2 and the under was blown away.

My next pick of the day was Denver over Utah. Utah got out to an early 11 point lead in the first quarter but had given it all back by the second. Denver went up by 11 by the half and the closest Utah got after that was 6 points. Denver ended up winning 114 to 104 thanks to the incredible performance by J.R. Smith who had 28 points off the bench and went 8 for 13 from behind the arc.

The one game that really surprised me was Real Salt Lake winning 4-1 against Columbus. I knew they were dangerous at home, but 4-1?! Obviously I had to give it up for them by adding them as a favorite team and changing my theme. RomoIsBurning and I picked up another game on arty and JAYJUDD after Phoenix defeated Los Angeles 2-1 with two goals in the third period. Al Montoya picked up his second win in his second NHL game and has a 0.50 GAA to go along with a 97.7 SV%. And now it’s time to go on to the picks.

1) Schalke 04 @ Arminia Bielefeld – Schalke 04 win
2) San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
3) Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
5) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Orlando
6) New Orleans Hornets @ Golden State Warriors – New Orleans
7) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.

1) Arminia Bielefeld is 2-4-2 (W-D-L) in 2009 and 0-3-1 at home. Their lone loss came against VfL Wolfsburg who are tied for 2nd place with Bayern Munich. Their draws were against Hertha Berlin (1st), VfL Bochum (14th), and Eintracht Frankfurt (12th). Schalke 04 is 3-1-4 in 2009 and 1-0-3 on the road. Their lone win was against Eintracht Frankfurt and their three losses were against Hannover 96 (13th), VfL Bochum, and VfL Wolfsburg. Arminia Bielefeld is 15th in the tables and Schalke 04 is 8th. Schalke 04 and Arminia Bielefeld played to a 0-0 draw in a home game for Schalke 04 earlier this season, but Arminia Bielefeld are only 0-2-8 against Schalke 04 going back to 2003. The current European odds have Schalke winning at 44.9% and Arminia Bielefeld winning or drawing at 55.1%.
UPDATE: It’s rather silly, but according to the Arminia homepage the head official for the game today is from Essen which is 6 miles from Gelesenkirchen, where Schalke 04 play. Radim Kucera, a defender for Arminia, was injured in their last match against VfL Wolfsburg on March 21st and won’t play today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Washington has opened as -170 favorites at home and Buffalo as +150 underdogs. Washington is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 3-1-1 at home recently. They are on a two game winning streak and have won their last three at home. Buffalo are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road. They are on a one game losing streak, losing at Atlanta a couple of nights ago. Washington is 2-1-0 against Buffalo this season, winning the only previous meeting in Washington D.C.
Confidence: W8 streak or less

4) Calgary is 5-5-0 in their last 10 games and 2-3-0 on the road recently. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-0-3 at home. Calgary is currently on a one game winning streak after defeating Dallas 2-1 last night and Minnesota is on a one game losing streak. Minnesota is 0-3-2 against Calgary this season with both overtime losses occuring in Minnesota. One of those losses was the second game of a back-to-back for Calgary. Calgary is 2-8-1 in the second night of back-to-back games this season. Niklas Backstrom is a terrific goalie most nights and with Calgary slumping a bit lately this is Minnesota’s best and last chance at defeating Calgary this season. Calgary opened as +100 underdogs and Minnesota as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

7) Over the entire season Yao Ming has been averaging 29.4 points and rebounds compared to 27.3 points for Kobe Bryant. Kobe has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately as well, scoring 22.3 points in his last 10 games and 22.8 points in his last 5 home games. He certainly broke out of it the other night, however, with 30 points in a win at Milwaukee. Yao Ming has been putting up solid numbers lately with 28.8 points and rebounds in his last 10 games and 27.0 points and rebounds in his last 5 away games. He had 20 points and 14 rebounds the other night at Phoenix in a loss. Houston and the Lakers have met three times previously this season. Kobe Bryant won the first matchup 23 to 20, lost the second 33 to 36 and won the third 37 to 22. Houston is a good defensive squad but Kobe is terrific against good defenses and if Ron Artest starts jawing with him again Kobe is likely to go off for 30-plus again.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

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