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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Thursday, April 2, 2009

April 2nd, 2009 Picks

Ah, missed out on the Suns so it was a 1-1-0 day today for me. My first pick was Turkey to win or draw. Senturk scored an easy tap in on an empty net after Casillas failed to hold on to or clear a shot and Turkey went into the half up 1-0. Spain had a corner kick and Ibrahim Uzulmez blocked the resulting shot partially with his arm. Since he was inside the box it was a penalty and Xabi Alonso easily converted it to even the score at 1-1. Turkey held strong and the teams traded scoring opportunities down the stretch but just over a minute into injury time Spain lofted a long pass to Guiza who made a swift pass to Alberto Riena. Riena had plenty of space and hit a side-footed shot past Demirel to save a 2-1 victory over Turkey.

My second pick was Atlanta over Buffalo. Buffalo scored first but the Thrashers evened things up less than two minutes later. Atlanta went ahead 2-1 in the second period but two penalties on Bogosian and Exelby for roughing put Atlanta in a 3 on 5 situation and they were very fortunate to come out of it with the score only 2-2. The 3rd period saw nobody find the net so the game went into overtime. With 30 seconds left Ilya Kovalchuk scored and handed Ryan Miller and the Sabres a 3-2 loss. Atlanta won for the fourth time over Buffalo this season, all four being decided on a shootout or in overtime.

In another matchup Jozy Altidore netted a hat trick for Team USA against Trinidad & Tobago as the United States won 3-0. Altidore very nearly had 4 goals in the game but tapped a shot from a yard out over the net. So on to the new picks.

1) Davis Love III vs. Andres Romero – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Ebbsfleet United @ Eastbourne Borough – Eastbourne Borough win
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Stuart Appleby – Appleby cards a lower 1st round score
4) Sergio Garcia vs. Henrik Stevenson – Garcia cards a lower front 9 score
5) Baylor vs. Penn State – Baylor
6) New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – 5 goals or fewer
7) LeBron James vs. Antawn Jamison – Jamison pts., reb., and ast.
8) Columbus @ Real Salt Lake – Columbus win or draw
9) Los Angeles Kings @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
10) Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets – Denver

1) Davis Love III and Andres Romero have played in four of the same events this year and Davis Love III had a lower front 9 score in the first round three of the four times. At Doral, however, the most recent tournament they both played in, Romero was five strokes better on the front 9 in the first round. Davis Love III has a lower putting average, higher driving accuracy, and a higher percentage of greens in regulation this year but all by small amounts. Just flip a coin.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Ebbsfleet United is a really cool fan-owned team so I’d like to take them here. Unfortunately, they haven’t won a road game in 2009, losing to Grays Athletic 1-3, Woking 0-1, Salisbury City 0-1, and Kettering Town 1-2. Eastbourne Borough is 3-1-3 (W-D-L) at home in 2009. They drew against Salisbury City (#12 in the tables), lost to Burton Albion (#1), Mansfield Town (#14), and Oxford United (#8), and defeated Crawley Town (#9), Wrexham (#10), and York City (#20). Currently Eastbourne Borough are #13 in the tables and Ebbsfleet United are #19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) Baylor outpaces Penn State in nearly every statistical category except rebounding margin, field goal and three point percentage defense, and assist to turnover ratio. Notre Dame is one of the worst teams in the nation in terms of empty possessions because they miss a lot of shots and don’t create more opportunities for themselves by forcing turnovers or blocking shots. Baylor shoots a higher percentage, forces turnovers, and blocks shots at a high rate. It’s really a matter of opinion if you feel they have been overachieving of late or if they were underachieving during Big 12 play in the regular season. I like Baylor’s offensive efficiency to carry the day in a fairly easy win over Penn State.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

9) Phoenix is a -120 favorite at home and the Kings are +110 underdogs. Phoenix is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and are on a two game winning streak. L.A. is 2-6-2 and are on a two game losing streak. Phoenix is 4-0-1 at home recently, winning their last three while Los Angeles is 1-3-1 on the road having lost their most recent game. Ilya Bryzgalov should be well rested for the Coyotes and ready to play tonight. Phoenix is 2-3-0 at home on the second night of a back to back this season.
UPDATE: The Coyotes look to start Al Montoya in net tonight after he shut out the Colorado Avalanche last night. The Los Angeles Kings have been nearly as poor as the Avalanche on offense lately scoring 1.6 goals per game in their last 10.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

10) The Nuggets have opened up as only 3.5 point favorites at home. The Utah Jazz, my favorite team, have lost every single game against teams with records above .500 this season. Having watched most of those games I can say the Jazz have rarely come close to winning in these games and have only shown the barest inkling of being capable of it. This is one time I’d definitely pick against Utah.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

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