A Bleak Look At Cash

Saturday, June 13, 2009

June 13th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)Man, fuck this bull jive picking sheeat. 0-1-1 for me today even with a 7-4-1 blog record. Yea, not only did I fail to build my streak to a lousy 4 games but I lost it altogether. I had Mickelson for the win until some bodacious wind and hail blew 'em out of there. Then I took the Red Wings. I could have won with either of the props, but no. Ah well, congratulations to the Penguin compatriots. It was a sweet win for all 'dem. And so we blast on to the weekend with some more picks.

Recaps

Mickelson, Padraig Blown Away Late

Phil Mickelson -2, Padraig Harrington E (through 15)

A storm with lightning, winds in excess of 70mph and 1" diameter hail stones blew into Memphis and tossed the PGA Tour right out.

``Play was halted and fans and players were cleared from the TPC Southwind course when the horn sounded 10 minutes before thunder could be heard on Friday. Tornado sirens then went off approximately 40 minutes after play was stopped with the storm tossing equipment around the course and knocking power out in parts of town. Phil Mickelson was at 4 under with three birdies and a bogey in his first event since announcing his wife Amy has breast cancer. This is a tuneup for the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black, and his preparation showed when he pulled an iron instead of driver or a wood on the tee a couple of times"

Fleury, Talbot, Penguins Puff Up, Deny Red Wings Second Straight Stanley Cup

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings (win series 4-3)

``Slide over Super Mario and make room on the Stanley Cup for a new batch of Pittsburgh Penguins. Max Talbot scored two second-period goals, and the Penguins overcame the loss of captain Sidney Crosby and a whole lot of history to beat the defending champion Detroit Red Wings 2-1 on Friday night in Game 7 and win the Stanley Cup for the third time. Evgeni Malkin, who led the playoffs with 36 points, earned the Conn Smythe Trophy as the postseason MVP. He assisted on Talbot's first goal. Marc-Andre Fleury was stellar in making 23 saves -- none bigger than the two he made in the final seconds, the last as he dived across the crease and knocked away a shot by Niklas Lidstrom."

Picks
1) Tenerife @ Girona - Girona win or draw
2) Arkansas vs. CS Fullerton - CS Fullerton
3) New York Mets @ New York Yankees - N.Y. Yankees
4) Rich `Ace' Franklin vs. Wanderlei `The Axe Murderer' Silva - Franklin
5) LSU vs. Virginia - Virginia
6) Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia
7) New York Liberty @ San Antonio Silver Stars - San Antonio
8) Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Houston
9) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Busch has a better finishing position
10) Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants - Oakland

Previews

With one more point Club Deportivo Tenerife will secure their return to La Liga.

Girona F.C. achieved safety a week ago and now hope to give a good result in their final match at Estadi Montilivi this season.

1) C.D. Tenerife make the 1600 mile journey from the Canary Islands to Girona in their penultimate match of the season. Tenerife nearly wrapped up their promotion to La Liga last week with a 2-0 win at home against Xerez. Tenerife still require one point from their last two matches to absolutely guarantee their place in the top flight, but based on this reaction to their victory over Xerez they are fairly confident in their chances of promotion. Looking at the homepages for Tenerife and Girona injury information and team selection was not easily come back, but you can check them out yourself and put your Catalan and Español to the test if you like.

Girona	Tenerife
@Eibar (2:2)	Xerez (2:0)
Gimnastic de Tarragona (2:1)	@Sevilla Atletico (0:4)
@Castellon (1:2)	Alavés (3:0)
@Elche (2:1)	@Hercules (3:1)
Xerez (0:2)	Murcia (3:1)
All scores in (home:away) format

As far as their recent form goes the result of their last 5 matches are shown in the table to the right. Not surprisingly Tenerife have been in better form as they are the better team. This bit of data was contributed from user BigBadMo: ``Against the bottom 11 teams in the league, Tenerife is 13-3-5 with a +23 goal differential, while Girona is 4-8-7 against the top 11 teams with a -11 goal differential." One should keep in mind Girona are one of the best teams of the bottom 11, however, and have only lost 3 matches at Estadi Montilivi this season. Against teams with 4 or fewer losses at their home ground Tenerife are a less impressive 2-4-2 (W-D-L) with a -2 goal differential. I think this is a tough match to read because Girona are clearly not one of the elite teams in the league but they are also not a bottom feeder. Girona were defeated by Tenerife on the road by a score of 4-1 earlier in the season, which sounds convincing, but Girona have also been difficult for teams to earn the double on. They defeated Hercules 1-0 at home, and drew away at Xerez 2-2, with Real Zaragoza being the only top 5 team to double. I think Tenerife has the quality to win this game easily, but if they are distracted by their nearly assured promotion I can see them mailing in a 1-1 draw in this game to accomplish their goal.

Friday, June 12, 2009

June 12th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)Well, 1-0-0 is all I eked out today with the Nationals coming through in the end. Incredibly an error at the end of a game worked in my favor and a Nationals reliever earned a save. I definitely missed out by passing on Mickelson, Livorno, and the Canadian hurdlers though. But who the fuck cares, right mate? So on to the picks.

Recaps

Phillips Error Nullfies Zimmerman Gaffe, Biemel Secures His First Save The Season

Washington Nationals 3 - 2 Cincinnati Reds

Phillips' error nullified an earlier one made by Ryan Zimmerman that allowed Gonzalez score from second on an infield single to put the Reds up 1-0.

``With the bases loaded and one out, Ryan Zimmerman bounced a slow grounder to shortstop Alex Gonzalez, who flipped to Phillips to force Alberto Gonzalez. As Anderson Hernandez crossed the plate with the tying run, Phillips threw wildly to first, allowing Guzman to score. The win was the third in 16 games for the Nationals, who left 12 runners on base before the eighth. Julian Tavarez (2-4) pitched two scoreless innings in relief of John Lannan and Joe Biemel got his first save of the year, pitching a scoreless ninth."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Brian Gay vs. Charles Howell III - Gay cards a lower front 9 score
2) Phil Mickelson vs. Padraig Harrington - Mickelson cards a lower 2^nd round score
3) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs - Minnesota
4) Los Angeles Spark @ Indiana Fever - Los Angeles
5) New York Mets @ New York Yankees - N.Y. Yankees
6) Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings - Detroit
8) Goals Scored In 1^st Period: 0 or 1 vs. 2 or more - 0 or 1 goal
9) Will Sidney Crosby Have Any Points: No (0) vs. Yes (1 or more) - No (0)
10) Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies - Colorado
11) Phoenix Mercury @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
12) San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Angels - San Diego

Previews
1) Brian Gay is the leader at The St. Jude Classic after 18 holes. Gay marauded through the front 9 in the afternoon with a 31 even though the conditions were a bit windy as compared with the morning. That 4 under from four birdies and five pars is quite a bit better than Charles Howell III's even par 35 earned through one birdie, a bogey, and seven pars. Historically, neither golfer has been significantly more successful than the other. Gay has two top 5 finishes, once in 2004 (T-5^th) and in 2007 (4^th). Howell III has only played in this event twice in the last five years before this year, and finished tied for 9^th in 2004 and missed the cut in 2008. Of the eight rounds Howell III has played at TPC Southwind in the last five years then he has carded scores under par in 4 of them (50%) while Gay has played 19 rounds in the past five years, carding scores under par in 7 of them (37%). You can compare histograms of their front 9 scores by clicking here.

Brian Gay lines up a putt on #9. Gay had four birdies on the front 9 yesterday afternoon.

Although Brian Gay had a much better first round than did Charles Howell III both golfers are having one of their most successful years on the Tour to date. Comparing Gay's 2009 Tour stats and Howell III's 2009 Tour stats one sees that both have placed well in events this year, with Gay earning around $121,000 per event and Howell III earning around $87,500 per event. Brian Gay is also a bit better statistically in terms of scoring average, sand save percentage, driving accuracy, Greens-In-Regulation percentage, birdie average, and putting average.

``My neck is still tight and sore. I don't know if there's something else going on in there or not. I don't think it's bothering me as far as swinging the club, but just kind of a pain in the neck."
---Brian Gay on how he felt during round 1

Lately, however, Gay has had to deal with a number of minor injuries including soreness in his neck, a rib injury, and back problems. In an interview following the first round Gay said his ribs and back are better but he still has soreness in his neck. Obviously, that did not affect his game too greatly in the first round, but it remains a concern as he continues to play.

With a win at TPC Southwind Brian Gay would qualify for the U.S. Open next weekend, though he may be looking forward to having a weekend off. I think he will approach the following rounds the same as any other and just try and play well and play the same as usual. Charles Howell III is likely to make the cut if he can shoot even par and would make the cut if they culled the field before the start of today's round. He should not be feeling too much pressure to make up ground. Considering Gay's 31 is his best front 9 score at Southwind in the past 5 years it seems likely he will shoot a few strokes worse, a 34 or 35. Howell III, however, is not likely to improve drastically and I see a 2 under 33 as the best he would most likely do and a 34 or 35 as his result. There is no clear favorite here, but with Gay already playing better this weekend and slightly better overall in 2009 I would favor him to win this matchup today.

[[==▌▌ Follow Their Round On Shottracker ▌▌==]]

2) Aside from Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson is quite possibly the best golfer in the world this year.

Mickelson misses a putt but played a solid round overall.

Although his 2 under 68 left him 4 strokes off of the top spot after the first round he already has two Tour wins from 10 events, earning an average of $320,000 from each. His group partner, Padraig Harrington, has not seen nearly the same success, missing the cut in 2 of his last 4 events, and earning a `paltry' $400,000 from 11 PGA Tour events. On the European Tour he has been more successful, earning $380,000 from 6 events and being one of the top 10 players in strokes per round.

Much has been made of the distraction provided Mickelson by his wife's recent breast cancer diagnosis. Mickelson was able to field some questions on that matter in his post-round interview yesterday.

Q. Phil, was this as tough a round of golf as you've ever played with everything that's been going on?
PHIL MICKELSON: ``I thought the pairing I had, playing with Padraig and Cameron was a perfect pairing to make the day lighthearted. We talked about a number of things that were not related to what's been going on, and so it's been really good."

With a great grouping it seems Mickelson will be able to keep focused on golf and having fun, and I think that will make enough of a difference here to ensure he stays 4 strokes in front of Harrington through this round.

▐▀▌╦╬╧╤╧╤ Follow Their Round With Shottracker ╤╧╤╧╬╦▐▀▌

Click on image to see a preview of each hole at TPC Southwind.

3) The Minnesota Twins reopen interleague play with their first trip to Wrigley Field in eight years, so the experience will be a new one for most of the players on their roster. It will be a three game series at Wrigley, over the weekend, with all three games being in the day. Minnesota is a dismal 5-15 in day games this season. Today's game won't be an easy one either, not with Randy Wells pitching for the Cubs.

The Twins go south for a matinee against Randy the Kid.

Wells may have an 0-2 record but his stats this season, pitching-wise at least, eclipse even Carlos Zambrano's. He has a 2.23 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 64²/₃ innings this season, 26 of them with AAA Iowa, meaning he has pitched even better for the Cubs than he did in the minors. He's coming off one of his lesser starts of the season, a 6²/₃ inning 7 hit effort in which he gave up 2 earned runs to the Reds. Prior to that he pitched for a full 7 innings against the Braves, allowing only 2 hits, one a home run, his only of the season. His 0-2 record then represents the weakness of Chicago's offense, at least when he's been pitching. The Cubs are 0-2 when Wells is pitching having scored 20 runs in his 6 starts, less than 4 per game with many of those runs coming late in the game.

"It's like, 'Man, you didn't get the win again,' [I'm like] hey, I lived it."
---Randy Wells on the messages he receives after games

His counterpart, Kevin Slowey, has not had the same issues with run support. Although he has a 4.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP his record is 8-2 making him one of the winningest pitchers in baseball this season. A big part of his success has been the offense Minnesota provides, but another major component has been his excellent command of the strike zone. Through 72²/₃ innings this season Slowey has walked a total of 9 batters. That his WHIP is still at 1.43 shows he is very hittable, but with a lack of free base runners he is able to keep men from advancing and scoring too often. Of course, when teams hit off of him like Seattle did in his last start - three home runs in 4²/₃ innings - they are going to score runs. That he got out of that game with only 4 earned runs against is a small miracle.

Despite some amazing stuff Randy Wells is still seeking his first win in seven starts.

Being that Wells throws right and many of the Twins' sluggers bat left I can see Wells giving up 2 or 3 runs in this game. The question then is will Slowey's luck continue to hold in preventing runs by the Cubs or will Fukudome, Soriano, Lee, and the many other potential offensive weapons have a field day? Chicago is batting .248 with a .393 slugging average in their last three games, almost exactly their batting numbers for the season as a whole. Unless they can improve on that I don't see them stringing together enough hits to effectively score runs in this game. Even if Wells does pitch a gem, with 7 shutout innings, I think Minnesota will be able to do some damage against the Cubs relievers such as Marmol, Heilmann, and Gregg. There are so many factors favoring Chicago, playing at Wrigley, the Twins' lack of success in day games, Wells on the mound, etcetera that it's hard to pick against them, but I see Wells as having a bit of a let down today and that will be enough to give the Twins the victory.

6) Two of the best teams in Major League baseball will clash tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Both teams are wrapping up tough stretches in the schedule and both teams have seen success through those stretches. Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 games and just finished up a three game sweep of the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. They will be starting Jon Lester who is coming off a pair of very impressive starts in which he has racked up 23 strikeouts over 15 innings while allowing 2 earned runs from 5 hits. His opponents were no walk overs either, as he shut down Texas at Fenway and Toronto at the Rogers Centre. Joe Blanton, for Philadelphia, has not done so badly himself after a rocky start to the season and is coming off 6 inning, 1 earned run against outing against the Dodgers in L.A. Boston has been hitting the ball better in their past three games, but the Phillies have averaged more total bases per hit overall this season. Lester will be a difficult prospect, but at Citizens Bank Park I favor the Phillies. I also don't think Lester will be striking out 10+ for a third consective game. Finally, Madson should have at least as good a chance of preserving a lead as Brad Lidge who is currently on the disabled list.

9) NHL Playoff hockey already has a reputation for placing a premium value on disciplined, conservative, defensive play. If that is the case then one might expect Game 7 of the Stanley Cup to be the epitome of that style. If previous games between these two are any indication the Penguins will have their work cut out for them. Including the regular season the Penguins have scored 7, 0, 1, 1, 4, 4, 0, and 2 goals in 8 games against Detroit. It was a game in November which saw the Penguins win 7-6 in overtime at Detroit, with Chris Osgood in goal no less. In their other three games at Joe Louis Arena, all in 2009, the Penguins have not scored more than 1 goal. Clicking here one can see Sidney Crosby's point production in all 8 games this season. The shaded areas represent games in Detroit. One can see that the Penguins have scored 19 goals in 8 games against Detroit this season, with Crosby accumulating 6 points (2 goals and 4 assists). That means Crosby has had a hand in less than ¹/₃ of the Penguins' goals this season. I think Pittsburgh could very well be held to under 3 goals in this game and given these numbers it would seem Crosby is more likely to be shut out in that situation.

12) Well, it's getting on in the day and so I'll just post a quick link to some raw stats. Looking over these stats I'm thinking the Padres are due to have a good game offensively with a large number of extra base hits. I also think Palmer will have to pitch a gem to allow the Angels to win this game. He could, certainly, but the Angels' bullpen may blow it in any case. For a base runs analysis and a link to an explanation of `Base Runs' click here. For a look at pitching stats, timeline of quality starts, links to recent performances, and simple batting and bullpen statistics click here.

UPDATE: Sorry, but it appears the links in these documents are not being converted correctly into flash movies so Adobe Reader will be required to view them.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

June 11th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)First off I'd like to thank anyone who's slogged through the changes to the blog the past couple of weeks, hopefully it's still been semi-useful. Second I'd like to point out a couple of features. First, the (skip recaps) next to the post title. Clicking on that will scroll past the recaps and straight to the picks. Clicking on bold picks will scroll directly to the previews for those picks. And clicking on the #'s like 1), 2), etc. will scroll back up to the picks. Then there's the hulu widget on the side. If the overlay windows are working for box scores and the like then you'll be able to watch hulu in one of those windows as well. Third, the chart up top in the "And So It Goes..." section shows my picks' win % for the past 2 weeks. Red is under 50% and green is over, and the lines mark out 25/50/75%. I want this page to be more about being an interactive resource for people than for telling people what picks to make. If I can give you the same information I've got and make it easy to find and examine, and you come to a different conclusion than I have here that is great! And if you win on your own conclusion it's even better!

As for myself, went 2-0-0 yesterday thanks to Sri Lanka and Tampa Bay. And so on to the picks.

Recaps

Sri Lanka Takes 1^st Place In `Group Of Death'

Sri Lanka 197/5 - West Indies 172/5

West Indies made a bit of a run early, but Muralitharan, Mendis, and Malinga put a stop to that.

``Ramnaresh Sarwan lofted Ajantha Mendis towards the long-on boundary where Angelo Mathews tried to get into position to take the catch. As the ball began its descent, Mathews braced himself right on the boundary's edge and caught the ball. He realised, however, that his momentum, and that of the ball, was going to take him over the rope and so he threw the ball in the air and then fell over outside the boundary. Looking up, he saw that the ball would land outside the boundary, resulting in a six, and so picked himself up, jumped desperately and was in the air as he slapped the ball over the rope and back into play. The jury was out on whether it should have been a six, but the West Indian batsmen only got the three runs they had run."

Lackey Lacking In Loss To Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Rays 9 - 5 Los Angeles Angels

The runs came in bunches with the vine a bit longer for the Rays.

``The Tampa Bay Rays were hardly concerned about their poor history against John Lackey. ``That was another time," manager Joe Maddon said Wednesday night after Carlos Pena and Willy Aybar homered to help the defending AL champions beat Lackey and the Los Angeles Angels 9-5. ``That was against the Devil Rays." Aybar also had an RBI single during a five-run second during which the Rays began the inning with four straight hits, three of them well-placed grounders that got through the right side of the infield."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Phil Mickelson vs. Padraig Harrington - Mickelson cards a lower back 9 score
2) St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins - Florida
3) Grosseto @ Livorno - Livorno win
4) Sergio Garcia vs. Retief Goosen - Garcia cards a lower first round score
5) Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox - Detroit
6) Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals - Washington
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
8) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox - Boston
9) Nationality Of 100m Hurdles Winner: Canada vs. U.S.A. or Jamaica - Canada
10) Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers - Texas
11) Usain Bolt's 100m Time: 9.76s or faster vs. 9.77s or slower - 9.77s or slower
12) Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic - Orlando
13) Which Quarter Will See More Points Scored: 3^rd vs. 4^th - 3^rd quarter

Previews
1) Padraig Harrington has not had a terrifically successful year thus far on the Tour. He has entered 11 events, missing the cut in 4 of them, has not finished in the top 10 to date and has come away with a `meager' $400,000. On the other side of this matchup is Phil Mickelson who has been one of the best of the best, with two wins in 10 events and three other top 10 finishes he has earned over $3 million on the Tour this year. Comparing their stats one can see Mickelson has a lower scoring average, putting average, and higher birdie average by fairly significant margins, which is no surprise.

Phil Mickelson's concern will be for his wife, who was recently diagnosed with breast cancer.

Mickelson, who has taken a few weeks off from the Tour recently while he and his wife waited for a full diagnosis of her breast cancer, will be playing golf for the next two weeks until she is ready to begin treatment. Some might think this would be a distraction for Mickelson and they would be right, but I think golf will provide more of a refuge from his worrisome thoughts than most people might think.“I’m looking forward to that. Forward to having a four- or five-hour mental break where I force myself to focus on something else." said Mickelson at a pre-tournament press conference yesterday. Neither player has much experience in Tour events at TPC Southwind, though Harrington has the more recent experience having played this event in 2008 and 2007. He finished 4^th last year, but missed the cut in 2007 while Mickelson last played here in 2001, missing the cut in that event. As for their back 9 scores, Harrington carded scores of 36, 36, 32, and 34 last year on the par-35 back half. He carded a 38 and 36 in 2007. Mickelson carded scores of 37 and 35 in 2001. Given the success Mickelson has had this year he is an obvious favorite to perform better in this tournament than the Dubliner and I am going to say that golf will provide him the escape from his worries he has probably needed for a long while.

||==__Follow Their Group With Shottracker__==||

2) The Fish and the Redbirds wrap up a three game series today at Landshark Stadium after having split the first two in opposite fashions. Jeremy Hermida hit a walk off home run to lead off the 9^th inning in the first game while St. Louis dominated the second game, scoring 13 runs from 18 hits. With that performance the Cardinals have raised their three game batting average to .297 along with a .450 slugging average. Florida has been nearly as good in their last three with a .278 batting and .423 slugging average. Based on their performance over the season one would expect the Cardinals to be the stronger offensive team, but interestingly the Marlins score runs on fewer total bases, and score only 0.7% fewer of their men on base. That indicates the Marlins tending to get hits in clusters more often and having stronger base running than the Cardinals.

The Marlins rarely take a series against St. Louis. Will today be any different?

Jorge Cantu has been a large part of Florida's success recently, and on the season, along with Hanley Ramirez. Unfortunately for the Marlins both will be missing out in this game. That means players like rookie Chris Coghlan, Jeremy Hermida, and Dan Uggla will have to step up their games, which has not been easy for them all season. Florida will also be depending on Andrew Miller to turn in another quality start, and preferably a gem. He's coming off a 4 hit, 1 earned run start against the Giants over 5²/₃ innings and the Marlins would be happy to see another one like that. Miller has given up only 1 home run this season and has done a great job inducing ground outs with a 1.03 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Even though the Cardinals just had their highest scoring game of the season yesterday Miller seems like a good pitcher to put them back to their low scoring ways.

St. Louis will have Todd Wellemeyer on the mound, who has a 5.32 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Unlike Miller he's not done well lately, giving up 9 earned runs in his past two starts, including 6 runs in 6 innings to the Colorado Rockies most rcently. He's more likely to give up extra base hits than Miller, but has been successful against Florida in the past allowing their lineup, including Ramirez and Cantu, to net a .302 slugging average over 43 at bats. He should do even better with those two out of the lineup today. With the Cardinals having a superior bullpen they should reamin in the game, even if they're down by a run or two. I do think Miller will perform well for the Marlins, but without Ramirez and Cantu it's hard to see them generating enough offense to win this convincingly. I'll go with Florida at home to win by 1 run.

3) Well, I really did not have enough time to look deeply into this and a cursory glance at each team's home page shows a general lack of in-depth analysis for the match readily available. You can check out Livorno's homepage as well as that of Grosseto U.S. A look at the Serie B tables shows Livorno are 7-10-4 (W-D-L) at home this season with a +10 goal differential while Grosseto are 5-5-11 away this season with a -20 goal differential.

A.S. Livorno are in a must win situation down 2-0 in aggregate in their promotion playoff battle with Grosseto.

That would seem to imply Grosseto are heavy underdogs, but they are not. Grosseto was not in the running for the promotion playoffs midway through the season before sacking their manager and hiring a new one. He has made a difference as they have stormed back to reach 6^th place. They won the first leg of the semifinal 2-0 at home and now must simply hold on to that lead in the second leg at Livorno. Because of their -20 goal differential away from home and their 2-0 lead in aggregate I can see Grosseto focusing heavily on the defensive aspects of their play. Livorno will be desperate to claw back and take their place in the promotion final. It would be incredibly disappointing for Livorno to miss out after achieving 3^rd place in the tables. Unfortunately for il Biancorossi they have not won a home match outright since February 7^th, a 2-1 win over Piacenza. Based on recent form Grosseto are the clearly superior side, but I think Livorno will have enough drive to at least eke out a 1 goal win in this single match.

||\/\/~~Click Here To Watch The Match Live~~\/\/||

9) The grand folks at rotoanalysts.com have put together a preview of this matchup. I like what I read so I'll repost it here:

There are 8 entrants in this event, two of which are Canadian and 6 total from the other two countries. The Jamaicans are pretty much non-factors as their personal bests are all about a quarter of a second slower than anyone else. Americans hold the best two times in the field at 12.44 and 12.45, but the best Canadian is right behind at 12.49. Americans Damu Cherry and Virginia Powell set their marks a couple of years ago and Cherry finished just behind ace Canadian Priscilla Lopes-Schliep at the Olympics. Lopes-Schliep is also on the improve as she set her mark earlier this year. I think Canada is the right play.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

June 10th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)1-3-0 today... had a good run a couple weeks back and have just not been able to see the winners lately. Florida got me my one win of the day, just figured Carpenter couldn't keep up what he'd been doing... though it wouldn't have surprised me to see him throw 7 shutout innings. Poland's goalie was real bad I guess, the translated news I read criticized him harshly, it was a third string or fourth string goalie, just a prospect really and he did not impress. Shelbourne was a man down for most of the 2^nd half, but really that one was not close. Crumlin scored on a penalty kick, without that it was 1 goal scored. Finished with Billingsley... damn, 4 hits in the first inning alone. Top of the order killed him, and having Gwynn back is really helping the Padres' lineup. Too bad for them Young gave up 4 home runs. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Poland Manages Disappointing Draw In Meaningless Game Against Iraq

Poland 1 - 1 Iraq

Poland fielded a number of prospective inclusions to their World Cup qualifying squad.

``One very inaccurate shot by Raphael Murawskiego. One corner and a free kick - both shot off target by Jack Krzynówka. The assessment that the ten day trip to Africa was completely devoid of meaning has not changed, however. Poland did get to preview the eventual composition of their team. Beenhakker, for various reasons (injuries, family) did not to name several key players such as Błaszczykowski, Brożek, Jeleń, Wasilewski, Boruc, M. Lewandowski."

Crumlin United Nearly Pull Off Shocker, Replay Next Monday At Tolka Park

Crumlin United 1 - 1 Shelbourne

``Trailing to Danny Loughran’s penalty lead, McAllister eased the nerves of ten-man Shels as he volleyed home from the edge of the area on 67 minutes after Crumlin failed to properly clear Derek Doyle’s long throw. Loughran’s lead goal [pictured right] came nine minutes earlier when a swift counterattack caught Shels on the back foot. Racing onto Stephen Larkin’s through ball, striker Tony Griffiths was tugged back by Robbie Hedderman. Referee Paul Tuite duly pointed to the spot and sent off central defender Hedderman for what was his second booking. Loughran scored emphatically from the spot, sending keeper Dean Delaney the wrong way."

Read more....Box Score

Ethier, Kemp, Hudson Go Long To Deliver A Shaky Billingsley The Win

Los Angeles Dodgers 6 - 4 San Diego Padres

Chad Billingsley gave up 4 hits in the first inning alone, but Chris Young gave up four home runs to help L.A. win the game.

``Andre Ethier homered his first two times up, Matt Kemp hit a go-ahead shot, and Orlando Hudson also went deep against Chris Young to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 6-4 victory over the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. Chad Billingsley (8-3) overcame a shaky start to tie Johan Santana, Jason Marquis and Matt Cain for the NL lead in wins. The right-hander threw 117 pitches over 5 2/3 innings, allowing three runs and eight hits."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Australia (v. Bahrain) vs. Japan (v. Qatar) - Japan win margin
2) Sri Lanka vs. West Indies - Sri Lanka
3) Norway @ Netherlands - 2 goals or fewer
4) Alex Rodriguez/Mark Teixeira vs. Kevin Youkilis/Jason Bay - Youkilis/Bay record more total bases
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets - New York
7) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros - Chicago
8) Chivas USA @ Houston Dynamo - Chivas USA win or draw
9) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
10) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - 5 runs or more
11) Result Of Adrian Gonzalez's 3^rd Plate Appearance: Hit/Walk vs. Other - Hit/Walk

Previews
1) First off it might be helpful to look at the World Cup Qualifying results for Australia and Japan's group thus far. Then a glance at an in-depth preview of Australia's match with Bahrain and Japan's match with Qatar should provide some additional insight. Here's a spoiler, goal.com predicts a 2-0 win for Australia and a 3-0 win for Japan.

Japan and Australia seek to maintain their good form after having qualified for the World Cup.

Australia Injury News

``Veteran centre-back Craig Moore headlines a list of some big-name injury victims for the Socceroos, with the former Newcastle United man having been recently diagnosed with testicular cancer. He is joined on the sidelines by first-choice duo Brett Emerton and Vince Grella, who both picked up injuries whilst on duty with English Premier League club Blackburn Rovers. Celtic striker Scott McDonald and FC Nurnberg defender Matthew Spiranovic have similarly been ruled out through injury, as has Newcastle Jets man Mark Milligan, who was called into the squad to replace Moore.

Japan Injury News

``Japan will be without suspended Wolfsburg midfielder Makoto Hasebe, red carded late in the game in Tashkent though Okada does not appear to have any new selection headaches."

West Indies may have to do without captain Chris Gayle in this near meaningless match.

Sri Lanka and West Indies are simply trying to maintain their momentum after disposing of Australia to advance to the Super Eight.

As always the CricInfo faithful have put together a terrific preview of the match. They note that Sri Lanka are a top heavy batting side so that if Taylor and Edwards (West Indies bowlers) can get some early wickets it will put a major dent in Sri Lanka's game. Chris Gayle is considered to be a serious doubt for the match, but from his comments it seems he would like to play so long as the swelling in his knee has gone down. Without Gayle the West Indies side have less talent, but still some competent batsmen who could put in a good showing. Sri Lanka's bowlers will make it difficult for West Indies in any case, with or without Gayle. SkyBet has Sri Lanka favored at 4/7 to 11/8 for West Indies. In terms of money lines that would put Sri Lanka at -175 and West Indies at +135.

"I'm carrying a bit of an injury so I don't know if I'm playing [against Sri Lanka]. After batting [against Australia] I didn't feel it, but the next day I couldn't walk properly. It had swollen and bruised a lot. I'm trying to get back into stride."
---West Indies captain Chris Gayle whose 88 runs from 50 helped defeat Australia

3) The Netherlands booked their place to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa on June 6^th with a 2-1 victory away at Iceland. Norway sit four points off of second place Scotland with four matches remaining and a game in hand. They are not eliminated at this point, but considering they have earned only three points from four matches their position is not good.

The Netherlands are the first European side to have qualified for the World Cup.

Looking at the World Cup qualifying results for their group one can see Netherlands have been fairly dominant at home, defeating Iceland 2-0, Scotland 3-0 and Macedonia 4-0. Away, Norway has been good but not good enough with two 0-0 draws against Macedonia and Scotland. Netherlands have had 16 goals scored in their 6 matches, 14 for and 2 against, scoring just over 2¹/₃ goals per match. Norway have had 5 goals scored in 4 matches, 3 for and 4 against, scoring ³/₄ goals per match. So in terms of goals scored they combine for just over 3 goals per match, but in terms of goals against allow just over 1 goal per match combined. Goal.com carries a preview of the match and predict a 1-1 draw to be the final result. They note the Netherlands will be fielding some young prospective inclusions to their World Cup squad. They also note the Norwegians play a disciplined defensive style of football. Considering Nederlans will be fielding a weaker side than while they were qualifying and that the reverse fixture in Norway ended as a 1-0 victory for Netherlands I like 2 goals or fewer to be scored in this match.

6) The Phillies dropped the first game of their series at Citi Field to the Mets thanks to some power hitting by Beltran, Wright, and Church cutting the Phillies' lead in the NL East to 2 games. New York will hope to cut into that lead even further with Mike Pelfrey on the mound, who has two wins against the Phillies already this season. The first was a 7-4 win at Citizens Bank Park on May 1^st with Delgado out of the lineup and Reyes going 0-for-4.

"For the past two years, they've been choke artists. That's kind of what we believed, and I think we're always going to believe that until they prove us wrong."
---Cole Hamels on New York radio station WFAN last December

The second was on May 7^th, a 7-5 win at Citi Field, with Reyes and Delgado both contributing significantly. Pelfrey struck out exactly zero batters in each game, but only gave up a total of 6 earned runs from 15 hits. Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park were the losing pitchers for the Phillies.

The Mets will not have the assistance of Reyes or Delgado in this game and will be facing a higher caliber of pitcher in Cole Hamels tonight. Hamels is coming off a complete game shutout of the Dodgers in L.A. It will be his first game pitching against the Mets this season who, without Delgado and Reyes, are batting .259 with a .459 slugging average over their careers against the young left hander.

The New York Mets, without Delgado or Reyes, will hope Pelfrey can secure a third straight victory over their division leading rivals.

Hamels is a terrific strikeout pitcher and his 5.5 K/BB ratio is one of the tops in the Majors, but he does give up his fair share of home runs with 10 already this season. Pelfrey, with a 1.22 ground ball to fly ball ratio, has given up only 4 this season in 2 more innings pitched. Pelfrey had his worst start of the season against the Pirates 5 days ago, giving up 8 earned runs in just 3²/₃ innings pitched, but I expect he will do much better in tonight's game. One factor that will definitely favor Philadelphia is their strong bullpen and the use of Madson as their closer over Brad Lidge, who is worst in the bullpen in terms of ERA. With Madson I think the Phillies faithful can breathe a little easier and he should be able to hold on to any lead he inherits, but with Hamels and Pelfrey likely to do worse and better, respectively, than in their previous starts and the Mets being at home I favor New York to win this game ever so slightly.

11) The venn diagram above shows results for Adrian Gonzalez's last 51 plate appearances. 29 of those 51 plate appearances have resulted in a hit or a walk, and 19 of 51 have been with a runner in scoring position (RISP). Of those 19 plate appearances Gonzalez has walked 13 times (68% of the time). He has reached base with a hit or a walk in 19 of 28 plate appearances occuring in the 5^th inning of a game or later as well. Simply put, he will most likely be walked if there is a runner in scoring position in the latter half of the game, especially if the score is close. His batting average is only .241 in those 11 games, so a walk would be his most likely means of reaching base.

Against Clayton Kershaw he has not done well at all, batting .167 in 12 at bats with a .286 on base percentage. That includes such 'other results' as hitting into fielder's choice or being hit by a pitch so he has hit or walked against Kershaw in less than 28.6% of his plate appearances. I have hit or walk as the pick here because he has been so good at taking walks, and by his third plate appearance should be facing Kershaw near the end of his pitch count. I think Gonzalez is well overdue to hit a home run and his position in the order with Gwynn especially in front of him means he is fairly likely to bat with a runner in scoring position.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

June 9th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)And right back into it with a 1-2-0 day and my baseball picks being perfectly wrong. That will change. Took the White Sox to start off, errors, balks, and walks doomed them. Then Texas for a win, and ended with the Diamondbacks' weak lineup not being able to keep up with San Diego with Reynolds and Upton out of the lineup. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Fucking Tigers Win Fucking Game, South Siders Slide Off Pace Of Detroit

Detroit Tigers 5 - 4 Chicago White Sox

``If this was the 1980s, [none] of these guys would be in the big leagues right now, because if you hit .210-.230 and you can't execute, I don't think you should be out here. When you can't bunt, hit-and-run, squeeze and move the guy over, you better hit 40 home runs and drive in 140."
---White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen

The White Sox committed three errors and Richard walked in a run in this one.

``Miguel Cabrera opened the ninth by reaching on third baseman Josh Fields' error. Marcus Thames followed with an infield single off shortstop Alexei Ramirez's glove. Inge then grounded a single into left field off Scott Linebrink (2-3), scoring pinch-runner Josh Anderson from second base. Chicago starter Clayton Richard lost his control in the fifth with two outs. Magglio Ordonez singled before Richard walked three straight batters, including Inge to force in a run, and put Detroit ahead 3-1."

Read more....Box Score

Texas Longhorns Advance To College World Series

Texas Longhorns 5 - 2 TCU Horned Frogs

``Freshman Taylor Jungmann allowed two hits over six innings Monday night and top-seeded Texas earned its first trip to the College World Series since 2005 with a 5-2 win over TCU. Jungmann got himself out of his only jam in the sixth inning. A single and hit batter put two runners on with no outs. But Jungmann got the next two hitters to ground right back to the mound. The first he threw to third for the first out of the inning. The second started a double play that ended it. TCU finally scored in the top of the eighth. Pinch hitter Hunt Woodruff doubled and scored on Coret Steglich's single to center. The Horned Frogs added another in the ninth when Matt Vern tripled off Wood and scored on Bryan Holaday's single that sent Wood to the bench. Ruffin replaced Wood with one out in the ninth and picked up his second save."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Poland vs. Iraq - Poland win
2) Shelbourne @ Crumlin United - 3 goals or more
3) Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever - Seattle
4) Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals - Cincinnati
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins - Florida
6) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox - Boston
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Pittsburgh
8) Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
9) Which Quarter Will See More Points: 1^st quarter vs. 2^nd quarter - 1^st quarter
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic - Orlando
11) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
12) San Diego Padres total hits vs. Chad Billingsley strikeouts - Billingsley strikeouts

Picks
2) Crumlin United currently lie in 7^th place of Division 1A (the 2^nd tier) of the Northern Amateur League._link They are 16 points off promotion to the Premier of the NAL and realistically will not be promoted this season. That means their best chance of success lies in the national Cup tournaments. They already won the FAI Umbro Intermediate Challenge Cup, the 2^nd tier cup to the FAI Ford Senior Challenge Cup which today's match is involved in. Their homepage is absent of any news regarding this match, but that is most likely due to a part-time webmaster than a nonchalant attitude towards the match.

Shelsbourne have more pressing concerns, such as promotion into the Irish Premier.

Crumlin, winners of the FAI Intermediate Cup, will not be promoted to the Premier of the Northern Amateur League and are focused on today's match.

The players of Shelbourne know Crumlin will be up for this match.

There is no injury news for Crumlin United, so I assume they will put out their strongest side, while Shelbourne have three first team injuries to contend with. Defender Damien Brennan and midfielders Richie Baker and Mark O'Brien are all likely to miss out for this match. Looking at their respective league tables one sees Crumlin has played 28 matches and there have been a total of 100 goals scored in them. Shelbourne have played 13 matches with only 28 goals scored in total. Because Shelbourne are a professional side while Crumlin are an intermediate club Shelbourne are overwhelming favorites at 2/9 compared to 11/1 for Crumlin at some books. Crumlin may take an all-out defensive approach to this game, though their attack has proven effective against more senior clubs than themselves at earlier stages of this competition. Even if Crumlin play defensively it may not be enough to keep Shelbourne out of the goal, but I can certainly see the game being played to a low score and am just hoping Crumlin can scratch a goal out.

"When you play junior or intermediate clubs in the cup you know that the minimum you will get is a battle. Their focus will be totally on this game and we have to match them."
---Shelbourne defender Kevin Doherty

San Diego Padres' Total Hits Minus Opposing Starters' Strikeouts

The Padres generally have more hits than batters struck out by the opposing team's starter, but have failed to do so twice against Billingsley this season.

12) The San Diego Padres visit Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. Los Angeles are 22-8 at Dodger Stadium this season, leading the Majors in home winning percentage. San Diego has not had much luck there themselves, being swept in a 3 game series earlier this season. In those three games they had 4, 3, and 6 total hits, well below their season average of 7.9 hits per game. In their other four games against the Dodgers, in San Diego, they had 5, 6, 3, and 7 hits. Looking at the graph above one can see Chad Billingsley had more strikeouts than the Padres had hits both times he started against them this season. Obviously, the Dodgers' starting pitching is solid, but it's their bullpen that has kept teams down. Over 199 innings they have given up a total of 176 hits, or 0.88 per inning.

Proportion of Padres' games with 'N' hits or less. Notice they have 7 or fewer runs in 50.9% of their games.

With Billiingsley giving up 0.78 hits per inning himself the Padres can't expect to get much relief from the Dodgers' relievers.

To the right we have a graph showing the proportion of Padres games where San Diego gets 'N' hits or fewer. One can see they have gotten 7 hits or fewer in 50.9% of their games. With Billingsley averaging 7.3 strikeouts through 12 starts this season he would appear to have a 50/50 chance of at least tying the Padres' total hits in this game. I favor Billingsley to get more strikeouts in Dodger Stadium, however, where the Padres have averaged 4.3 hits per game this season.

A Bleak Look At Cash

And So It Goes....

Saturday, June 13, 2009

June 13th, 2009 Picks

Friday, June 12, 2009

June 12th, 2009 Picks

Thursday, June 11, 2009

June 11th, 2009 Picks

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

June 10th, 2009 Picks

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

June 9th, 2009 Picks

About

How To Play

Full Details

Click Here To Play The Game!

Together We Face A Brighter Tomorrow....

Blog Archive

A Bleak Look At Cash

And So It Goes....

Saturday, June 13, 2009

June 13th, 2009 Picks

Friday, June 12, 2009

June 12th, 2009 Picks

Thursday, June 11, 2009

June 11th, 2009 Picks

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

June 10th, 2009 Picks

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

June 9th, 2009 Picks

Subscribe To

About

How To Play Full Details

Click Here To Play The Game!

Together We Face A Brighter Tomorrow....

Blog Archive

How To Play

Full Details