June 10th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)1-3-0 today... had a good run a couple weeks back and have just not been able to see the winners lately. Florida got me my one win of the day, just figured Carpenter couldn't keep up what he'd been doing... though it wouldn't have surprised me to see him throw 7 shutout innings. Poland's goalie was real bad I guess, the translated news I read criticized him harshly, it was a third string or fourth string goalie, just a prospect really and he did not impress. Shelbourne was a man down for most of the 2^nd half, but really that one was not close. Crumlin scored on a penalty kick, without that it was 1 goal scored. Finished with Billingsley... damn, 4 hits in the first inning alone. Top of the order killed him, and having Gwynn back is really helping the Padres' lineup. Too bad for them Young gave up 4 home runs. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Poland Manages Disappointing Draw In Meaningless Game Against Iraq

Poland 1 - 1 Iraq

Poland fielded a number of prospective inclusions to their World Cup qualifying squad.

``One very inaccurate shot by Raphael Murawskiego. One corner and a free kick - both shot off target by Jack Krzynówka. The assessment that the ten day trip to Africa was completely devoid of meaning has not changed, however. Poland did get to preview the eventual composition of their team. Beenhakker, for various reasons (injuries, family) did not to name several key players such as Błaszczykowski, Brożek, Jeleń, Wasilewski, Boruc, M. Lewandowski."

Read more (Polish)....(Translation)Highlights (Poland scores)(Iraq scores)

Crumlin United Nearly Pull Off Shocker, Replay Next Monday At Tolka Park

Crumlin United 1 - 1 Shelbourne

``Trailing to Danny Loughran’s penalty lead, McAllister eased the nerves of ten-man Shels as he volleyed home from the edge of the area on 67 minutes after Crumlin failed to properly clear Derek Doyle’s long throw. Loughran’s lead goal [pictured right] came nine minutes earlier when a swift counterattack caught Shels on the back foot. Racing onto Stephen Larkin’s through ball, striker Tony Griffiths was tugged back by Robbie Hedderman. Referee Paul Tuite duly pointed to the spot and sent off central defender Hedderman for what was his second booking. Loughran scored emphatically from the spot, sending keeper Dean Delaney the wrong way."

Read more....Shelbourne Point Of View

Hermida's First Delivers Win For Marlins

Florida Marlins 4 - 3 St. Louis Cardinals

``He hung a slider a little bit and I was able to get the barrel on it and keep it fair. All I was thinking was, `Ballgame.'"
---Jeremy Hermida on his walk off home run

``Hermida hit a 1-1 pitch from reliever Jason Motte (2-2) into the right-field seats. It came after Matt Lindstrom (2-1) pitched a scoreless ninth for the Marlins, who rallied from an early three-run hole. Carpenter allowed three runs in six innings after having given up three runs in his first six starts combined. His ERA rose from 0.79 to 1.23. Josh Johnson has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts."

Read more....Box Score

Ethier, Kemp, Hudson Go Long To Deliver A Shaky Billingsley The Win

Los Angeles Dodgers 6 - 4 San Diego Padres

Chad Billingsley gave up 4 hits in the first inning alone, but Chris Young gave up four home runs to help L.A. win the game.

``Andre Ethier homered his first two times up, Matt Kemp hit a go-ahead shot, and Orlando Hudson also went deep against Chris Young to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 6-4 victory over the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. Chad Billingsley (8-3) overcame a shaky start to tie Johan Santana, Jason Marquis and Matt Cain for the NL lead in wins. The right-hander threw 117 pitches over 5 2/3 innings, allowing three runs and eight hits."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Australia (v. Bahrain) vs. Japan (v. Qatar) - Japan win margin
2) Sri Lanka vs. West Indies - Sri Lanka
3) Norway @ Netherlands - 2 goals or fewer
4) Alex Rodriguez/Mark Teixeira vs. Kevin Youkilis/Jason Bay - Youkilis/Bay record more total bases
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets - New York
7) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros - Chicago
8) Chivas USA @ Houston Dynamo - Chivas USA win or draw
9) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
10) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - 5 runs or more
11) Result Of Adrian Gonzalez's 3^rd Plate Appearance: Hit/Walk vs. Other - Hit/Walk

Previews
1) First off it might be helpful to look at the World Cup Qualifying results for Australia and Japan's group thus far. Then a glance at an in-depth preview of Australia's match with Bahrain and Japan's match with Qatar should provide some additional insight. Here's a spoiler, goal.com predicts a 2-0 win for Australia and a 3-0 win for Japan.

Japan and Australia seek to maintain their good form after having qualified for the World Cup.

Australia Injury News

``Veteran centre-back Craig Moore headlines a list of some big-name injury victims for the Socceroos, with the former Newcastle United man having been recently diagnosed with testicular cancer. He is joined on the sidelines by first-choice duo Brett Emerton and Vince Grella, who both picked up injuries whilst on duty with English Premier League club Blackburn Rovers. Celtic striker Scott McDonald and FC Nurnberg defender Matthew Spiranovic have similarly been ruled out through injury, as has Newcastle Jets man Mark Milligan, who was called into the squad to replace Moore.

Japan Injury News

``Japan will be without suspended Wolfsburg midfielder Makoto Hasebe, red carded late in the game in Tashkent though Okada does not appear to have any new selection headaches."

West Indies may have to do without captain Chris Gayle in this near meaningless match.

2)

Sri Lanka and West Indies are simply trying to maintain their momentum after disposing of Australia to advance to the Super Eight.

As always the CricInfo faithful have put together a terrific preview of the match. They note that Sri Lanka are a top heavy batting side so that if Taylor and Edwards (West Indies bowlers) can get some early wickets it will put a major dent in Sri Lanka's game. Chris Gayle is considered to be a serious doubt for the match, but from his comments it seems he would like to play so long as the swelling in his knee has gone down. Without Gayle the West Indies side have less talent, but still some competent batsmen who could put in a good showing. Sri Lanka's bowlers will make it difficult for West Indies in any case, with or without Gayle. SkyBet has Sri Lanka favored at 4/7 to 11/8 for West Indies. In terms of money lines that would put Sri Lanka at -175 and West Indies at +135.

"I'm carrying a bit of an injury so I don't know if I'm playing [against Sri Lanka]. After batting [against Australia] I didn't feel it, but the next day I couldn't walk properly. It had swollen and bruised a lot. I'm trying to get back into stride."
---West Indies captain Chris Gayle whose 88 runs from 50 helped defeat Australia

3) The Netherlands booked their place to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa on June 6^th with a 2-1 victory away at Iceland. Norway sit four points off of second place Scotland with four matches remaining and a game in hand. They are not eliminated at this point, but considering they have earned only three points from four matches their position is not good.

The Netherlands are the first European side to have qualified for the World Cup.

Looking at the World Cup qualifying results for their group one can see Netherlands have been fairly dominant at home, defeating Iceland 2-0, Scotland 3-0 and Macedonia 4-0. Away, Norway has been good but not good enough with two 0-0 draws against Macedonia and Scotland. Netherlands have had 16 goals scored in their 6 matches, 14 for and 2 against, scoring just over 2¹/₃ goals per match. Norway have had 5 goals scored in 4 matches, 3 for and 4 against, scoring ³/₄ goals per match. So in terms of goals scored they combine for just over 3 goals per match, but in terms of goals against allow just over 1 goal per match combined. Goal.com carries a preview of the match and predict a 1-1 draw to be the final result. They note the Netherlands will be fielding some young prospective inclusions to their World Cup squad. They also note the Norwegians play a disciplined defensive style of football. Considering Nederlans will be fielding a weaker side than while they were qualifying and that the reverse fixture in Norway ended as a 1-0 victory for Netherlands I like 2 goals or fewer to be scored in this match.

6) The Phillies dropped the first game of their series at Citi Field to the Mets thanks to some power hitting by Beltran, Wright, and Church cutting the Phillies' lead in the NL East to 2 games. New York will hope to cut into that lead even further with Mike Pelfrey on the mound, who has two wins against the Phillies already this season. The first was a 7-4 win at Citizens Bank Park on May 1^st with Delgado out of the lineup and Reyes going 0-for-4.

"For the past two years, they've been choke artists. That's kind of what we believed, and I think we're always going to believe that until they prove us wrong."
---Cole Hamels on New York radio station WFAN last December

The second was on May 7^th, a 7-5 win at Citi Field, with Reyes and Delgado both contributing significantly. Pelfrey struck out exactly zero batters in each game, but only gave up a total of 6 earned runs from 15 hits. Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park were the losing pitchers for the Phillies.

The Mets will not have the assistance of Reyes or Delgado in this game and will be facing a higher caliber of pitcher in Cole Hamels tonight. Hamels is coming off a complete game shutout of the Dodgers in L.A. It will be his first game pitching against the Mets this season who, without Delgado and Reyes, are batting .259 with a .459 slugging average over their careers against the young left hander.

The New York Mets, without Delgado or Reyes, will hope Pelfrey can secure a third straight victory over their division leading rivals.

Hamels is a terrific strikeout pitcher and his 5.5 K/BB ratio is one of the tops in the Majors, but he does give up his fair share of home runs with 10 already this season. Pelfrey, with a 1.22 ground ball to fly ball ratio, has given up only 4 this season in 2 more innings pitched. Pelfrey had his worst start of the season against the Pirates 5 days ago, giving up 8 earned runs in just 3²/₃ innings pitched, but I expect he will do much better in tonight's game. One factor that will definitely favor Philadelphia is their strong bullpen and the use of Madson as their closer over Brad Lidge, who is worst in the bullpen in terms of ERA. With Madson I think the Phillies faithful can breathe a little easier and he should be able to hold on to any lead he inherits, but with Hamels and Pelfrey likely to do worse and better, respectively, than in their previous starts and the Mets being at home I favor New York to win this game ever so slightly.

11) The venn diagram above shows results for Adrian Gonzalez's last 51 plate appearances. 29 of those 51 plate appearances have resulted in a hit or a walk, and 19 of 51 have been with a runner in scoring position (RISP). Of those 19 plate appearances Gonzalez has walked 13 times (68% of the time). He has reached base with a hit or a walk in 19 of 28 plate appearances occuring in the 5^th inning of a game or later as well. Simply put, he will most likely be walked if there is a runner in scoring position in the latter half of the game, especially if the score is close. His batting average is only .241 in those 11 games, so a walk would be his most likely means of reaching base.

Against Clayton Kershaw he has not done well at all, batting .167 in 12 at bats with a .286 on base percentage. That includes such 'other results' as hitting into fielder's choice or being hit by a pitch so he has hit or walked against Kershaw in less than 28.6% of his plate appearances. I have hit or walk as the pick here because he has been so good at taking walks, and by his third plate appearance should be facing Kershaw near the end of his pitch count. I think Gonzalez is well overdue to hit a home run and his position in the order with Gwynn especially in front of him means he is fairly likely to bat with a runner in scoring position.