September 10th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Today was full of down to the last second props with Belgium scoring in injury time, the last shot of the game putting Poland/Turkey over, the Yankees going up 4-2 with 4 runs in the eighth though by now we're used to the Rays bullpen blowing leads. They're at 4 or 5 leads blown in a row now. I continued my streak with that Euro basketball over/under then picked up another win with an easy Nationals hitting Cliff Lee prop. Today looks like some decent picks but I'm still hoping we get some soccer on the board. So on with the picks!

Picks
1) David Toms vs. Ernie Els - Toms cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto
3) Phil Mickelson's Score On The Par 5 15^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Birdie (4)
4) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets - Florida
5) Fernando Gonzalez vs. Rafael Nadal - 4 or 5 sets played
6) Jonathan Dwyer's Rushing Yards (Clemson @ Georgia Tech): 114 Or Fewer vs. 115 Or More - 114 or less
7) Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
8) Derek Lowe vs. Roy Oswalt - Oswalt allows fewer hits
9) Chris Johnson vs. Willie Parker - Johnson records more total yards
10) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
11) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - 8 runs or fewer

September 9, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Lost my meager three game streak yesterday on that European Basketball Championship over/under but did manage to get back a couple wins with Marin Cilic defeating Andy Murray and the Yankees walking off with Nick Swisher's second home run of the game. I can already tell those two soccer matches are trying to trick me into losing my streak while attempting to get two picks in for the price of one. By lucky charms I'll have some sort of winning streak come 7pm. And so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Belgium @ Armenia - 2 goals or fewer
2) Poland vs. Turkey - 156 points or more
3) Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - 26 hits+runs+errors or fewer
5) Netherlands @ Scotland - Netherlands win
6) Novak Djokovic vs. Fernando Verdasco - 40 games or more played
7) Melanie Oudin vs. Caroline Wozniacki - Wozniacki wins 2-0
8) Cliff Lee's strikeouts vs. Washington Nationals' Hits Off Lee - Nationals hits off Lee
9) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees - Rays win or lose by 1
10) United States @ Trinidad & Tobago - Trinidad & Tobago win, tie, or lose by 1
11) Detroit Shock @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
12) Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros - Houston
13) Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling - Federer loses 13 games or fewer
14) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
15) Who Will Score More Runs In Innings 4 Through 6 (Dodgers @ Diamondbacks) - Arizona

Previews
1) I like 2 goals or fewer since Belgium defeated Armenia 2-0 in Belgium and now they're on the road so I would expect them to either win 1-0, 2-0, or draw 1-1, or lose 1-0. The only 3 goal or plus scoreline I see having a chance of occurring here is a 2-1 Belgium win. The odds at Skybet have under at -137.5 (8/11) and the over at even odds (+100).

3) The Cubs are 30-40 on the road while Pittsburgh is 36-33 at home. Carlos Zambrano is a pretty solid pitcher, but his ERA is only 4.60 in day games this season compared to 3.17 in night games. Kevin Hart has given up 3 or more earned runs in all 6 of his starts since being acquired by Pittsburgh from the Cubs. He has also made it out of the 6^th inning three times. Chicago actually looks like a decent pick here, I just don't like their losing record on the road.

Click image for larger view.

8) Looking at the graph on the right one sees Cliff Lee has been causing NL teams to strike out more often relative to their season average than AL teams. The red line represents strikeouts in relation to season average while the black line represents hits per strikeout in that particular game. Whenever the black line is over the red line it represents a loss in the context of this prop. Wins are when the red line is over the black line. One can then see that overall Lee is 8-17 with one push so far this season and has lost three in a row after dominating the NL for four games after being traded to Philadelphia. The Nationals are at the top of the bottom third of MLB in terms of plate appearances per strikeout though at 5.27; they also average 4.33 plate appearances per hit, which is poor overall. The Angels lead the MLB in plate apperances per hit with one every 3.91 while the worst team is San Diego with one every 4.69 plate appearances, so Washington's 4.33 is closer to the bottom. Cliff Lee could dominate Washington and win the prop 4 to 3, but I think Washington will get at least 6 hits and strike out no more than 6 times.

September 8th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)I got to celebrate Labor Day with some manual labor, helped a friend move their furniture. Topped the day off with some curry and steak. As for my picks they went pretty poorly. I would have reversed my position relative .500 if I'd just stuck with my gut on tennis matches. So I'll stick with it today and on to the picks!

Picks
1) Germany vs. Russia - 140 points or less
2) York City @ Barrow AFC - Barrow AFC win or draw
3) Marin Cilic vs. Andy Murray - Murray will lose 14 games or more
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - New York
5) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets - Florida
6) Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty - New York
7) River Plate @ Rosario Central - River Plate win or draw
8) Gael Monfils vs. Rafael Nadal - 41 games or fewer played
9) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - Seattle
10) San Antonio @ Los Angeles - 147 points or more

September 7th, 2009 Happy Labor Day!!

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(skip to picks)Let me just say the Rays bullpen is an embarrassment right now, and Joe Maddon is way too far down the Sabermetrics hole if he can't figure out who's actually pitching well on a given day rather than who the stats say should pitch well. Three straight games the Rays have blown a lead to Detroit in the final innings. This one was especially awful as Lance Cormier had just struck out a batter to start off the 9^th. Maddon replaces him and dude walks a man on first, next relief pitcher walks his first batter. Maddon puts in another reliever and he gives up a single, a grand slam, and a triple before finally Choate gets in the game and gets two outs with a man on third. So I lost my 5 game streak and just got it back to one with the Dodgers losing to San Diego 4-3. Labor Day looks to have some easier picks than Sunday, so good luck and on to the picks!

Picks
1) Phil Mickelson's Front 9 Score: 35 or lower vs. 36 or higher - 35 or lower
2) Robin Soderling vs. Nikolay Davydenko - Davydenko
3) Yankees' Hits Off Garza vs. C.C. Sabathia's Strikeouts - Sabathia's strikeouts
4) Deutsche Bank Championship Winner: Stricker, Goosen, or Harrington vs. Rest Of Field - Stricker, Goosen, or Harrington
5) Melanie Oudin vs. Nadia Petrova - Petrova
6) Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox - Boston
7) Monaghan @ Saint Patrick's - 3 goals or more
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
9) Cincinnati Bearcats @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Rutgers
10) Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 47 points or more
11) Caroline Wozniacki vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - Kuznetsova
12) Ricky Ray vs. Henry Burris - Ray passes for more yards
13) Miami(FL) Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles - Touchdown scored first
14) Miami(FL) Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles - 24 points or more scored in the 2^nd half

Previews

Soderling (-155) is favored and is 4-2 against Davydenko (+135), but only 1-2 against him on hard courts.

2) Well, it looks like both Robin Soderling and Nikolay Davydenko have had a bit of trouble defeating top tier opponents lately. Soderling has been knocked out of his past 3 events by #42 Lleyton Hewitt, #6 Juan Martin del Potro, and #40 Nicolas Almagro. Davydenko has been sent off by #23 Sam Querrey, #9 Gilles Simon, and #3 Andy Murray so that overall I would say Davydenko has been in better form. Head to head Soderling is 4-2 over Davydenko, but is 1-2 against him on hard courts. Checking on 5dimes.com Soderling is a -155 favorite while Davydenko is +135. The odds favor Soderling, but history and form favor Davydenko in my book.

Opponents' strikeout rate vs. Sabathia compared to average rate for season. Click image for larger view.

3) The graph on the left shows how poorly teams bat against C.C. Sabathia in terms of how often they strike out. If a team has a strikeout for every 5 batters faced and they strike out every 2.5 batters faced when Sabathia pitches then they are marked at 200% for that game. One can see teams are striking out 1.5 times to twice as often against Sabathia over the past month. One can also see that teams have struck out progressively more often each time they face Sabathia.

Tampa Bay struck out at 80% their season average against C.C. the first time they faced him and at 106% the second time. It would not be a stretch to see them strike out at 150% their average rate in today's game. Looking at this chart one sees Tampa Bay are the 3^rd worst team in terms of plate appearances per strikeout at 4.97, which would give Sabathia 6 strikeouts if he faces 30 batters. If he is pitching well he could double that rate, as he has done in 4 of his past 5 starts.

As for Matt Garza he has given up 4, 5, and 8 hits to the Yankees in three starts this season. If Sabathia can reach 10 strikeouts I think he'll win this prop and that's even if Garza has a bad game. The main caveat is Sabathia's day/night split. His K/9 is 8.41 in night games and only 5.9 in day games. I still like the strikeouts here as Garza's median number of hits given up in 27 starts this season is only 5.5.

4) There are 12 players at -10 to par or better with Stricker and Goosen at -13 and Harrington at -12. Stricker and Goosen have three wins between them this year. The other nine players have three wins between them. I like that the most experienced at winning are tied for the top spot going into this round.

5) I had Melanie Oudin up here originally because I saw she was a slight favorite on 5dimes, something like -110 to -105. Here on SkyBet they have both at -110, so there's money down on both sides. The thing is, Oudin is unseeded and is on a major cinderella run after defeating Dementieva and Sharapova. Nadia Petrova is still better and I find myself believing in Oudin less. These tournaments can be draining and I think Petrova will be a wall Oudin will fail to climb. Good luck.

St. Patrick's replay their fourth round draw home at Richmond Park after last month's fixture at Monaghan ended in a 0-0 draw.

7) This is a replay of a 4^th round Ford FAI Cup match between Monaghan United and St. Patrick's Athletic. The first match was played at Monaghan's home park and ended in a 0-0 draw. Reading a match report from stpatsfc.com one gets the impression scoring opportunities were to be had but none materialized. RTE carries a nice preview of the match. They note that St. Patrick's recently lost to Steaua Bucuresti 5-1 in aggregate and with their dropping to 7^th in the tables their only realistic avenue back into the major UEFA competitions next summer is through a Ford FAI Cup victory. The article mentions some injury concerns for St. Patrick's, with Ryan and Harris out on defense and O'Connor out at midfield. Looking at FAI Cup results for St. Patrick's one can see 10 of their 17 matches in the past 5 years have had 3 or more goals scored. One can also read a short match preview from the Monaghan point of view on their homepage. Note they lost 0-3 at home to First Division side Shelbourne in their most recent match. I think St. Patrick's could achieve a similar scoreline.

8) Max Scherzer won his last start against the Dodgers, in L.A., pitching 7²/₃ innings and allowing only 1 run. The Diamondbacks won that game 4-1. The last game Vicente Padilla pitched was against the Diamondbacks. Padilla allowed 1 run in 5¹/₃ innings and the Dodgers won 4-3. Right now Arizona is producing more on offense - 5.2 runs in their last 10, 5-5 record compared to L.A. who are scoring 3.5 runs in their last 10 with a 5-5 record. Being at home I think Scherzer can pull off another solid performance and win for Arizona in a close game.

September 6th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Pretty glad to get back on track after that awful Friday picking around 30%. I went 4-0-0 on my picks today. I started out with Ian Poulter threatening to break my streak. Stewart Cink eagled #2 and then Poulter missed a 3' putt and a 6' putt, both of which would have brought him level with Cink and won the prop. Fortunately, on the final hole, Poulter sank a 61-foot putt. Incredible! After that I decided to let it ride and picked up another win with Gregg Paulus throwing only one TD pass. My third win of the day came with Yovani Gallardo fanning 6 batters to 5 for Matt Cain. Then I wrapped it all up with Brazil winning convincingly 3-1. There look to be few gimmes tomorrow so best of luck feeling out the upsets and favorites. And on to the picks!

Picks
1) Kenya @ Mozambique - Kenya win or draw
2) Morocco @ Togo - Morocco win or draw
3) Sean O'Hair vs. Jim Furyk - O'Hair cards a lower or equal 3^rd round score
4) Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
5) San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
6) Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
7) Kim Clijsters vs. Venus Williams - Clijsters
8) Mississippi Rebels @ Memphis Tigers - 54 points or fewer
9) Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Saskatchewan Roughriders - 51 points or fewer
10) Kyle Busch vs. Mark Martin - Martin has a better finish
11) San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers - 8 runs or fewer
12) Taylor Dent vs. Andy Murray - 28 games or more played

September 5th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Wow, just a horrid day for my picks, I'm lucky to have picked up two wins. Started out with Verplank mauling the front 9. One eagle and a few birdies later he was 5-under. Of course Cabrera was three strokes better on the back 9 to even things up after he lost the front 9 prop. I then lost with Woody Austin getting onto the green in 3 strokes and putting in from close. After that I won with Serena Williams being taken to 21 games. Then it was back to losing when Phil Mickelson missed a five footer for birdie. Things continued to be ridiclously shitty when Wienerwright [sic] got lit up in the 5^th inning to the tune of 6 runs. He got pulled after that and finished with 5 strikeouts, one away from winning the prop. Fortunately, I ended the day on a high note with the Seattle Mariners picking up another win on the road. So on to the picks of tomorrow!

Picks
1) Ian Poulter vs. Stewart Cink - Poulter cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Macedonia @ Scotland - 2 goals or fewer
3) Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Syracuse Orange - Paulus throws 0 or 1 touchdown passes
4) Navy @ Ohio State vs. Kentucky @ Miami(OH) - Kentucky and Miami(OH) score more combined points
5) Jie Zheng @ Nadia Petrova - Petrova
6) Steve Stricker vs. Tiger Woods - Stricker cards a lower or equal front 9 score
7) John Isner vs. Andy Roddick - Roddick wins 3-0
8) Baylor Bears @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Baylor
9) Georgia Bulldogs @ Oklahoma State Cowboys - Oklahoma State
10) Matt Cain vs. Yovani Gallardo - Gallardo records more strikeouts
11) Carl Edwards vs. Mike Vickers - Edwards has a better final position
12) Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros - Houston
13) BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners - Longest touchdown is 59 yards or more
14) Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
15) Alabama @ Virginia Tech - Alabama scores more 1^st half points
16) El Salvador @ United States - United States wins by 2 goals or more
17) Brazil @ Argentina - Brazil win or draw
18) LSU Tigers @ Washington Huskies - LSU winning margin

September 4th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)I got a little reckless today and ended up dumping my streak on Dementieva. Definitely underestimated Melanie Oudin who ended up beating Dementieva in a huge upset. Safina dropped the first set of her match against Barrois but came back to take the next two sets 6-3 apiece. I got back on track with Pujols and Holliday and then capped the day off with a Yankees win in Toronto. We've got a ton of picks tomorrow and if you're not going for the monthly I recommend staying off the front 9 golf props and maybe going with some straight up MLB. Good luck and on to the picks.

Picks
1) Angel Cabrera vs. Scott Verplank - Cabrera cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Woody Austin's Score On The Par 5 18^th: Par (5) vs. Any Other Score - Par (5)
3) Serena Williams vs. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez - 17 games or more played
4) Y.E. Yang vs. Zach Johnson - Johnson cards a lower front 9 score
5) Nicolas Almagro vs. Robby Ginepri - Ginepri
6) Phil Mickelson's Score On The Par 5 18^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Birdie (4)
7) New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun - Connecticut
8) Strikeouts Recorded By Adam Wainwright (Cardinals @ Pirates): 5 Or Fewer vs. 6 Or More - 6 or more
9) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - New York
10) Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota
11) Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Tulane Green Wave - 64 points or fewer
12) Nicolas Kiefer vs. Rafael Nadal - 28 games or fewer played
13) San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
14) Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics - Seattle
15) Atlanta Dream @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
16) Montreal Alouettes @ B.C. Lions - 55 points or more

Previews

Mickelson		Austin
2007	2008	2003	2004	2007	2008
5	5	5	8	4	5
3	4	5	5	5	4
4	4	--	--	5	4
4	--	--	--	4	4
Gray scores are 'any other result'.

2/6) Here's some scores on that par 5 18^th for Mickelson and Woody Austin. The gray scores indicate 'any other result', i.e. non-birdies for Mickelson and non-pars for Austin. One can see Mickelson birdied this hole in 4 of 7 rounds while Austin scored par in 6 of 12 rounds.

5) Robby Ginepri is 1-0 in his career against Nicolas Almagro, winning on the hard courts in Sydney in 2007. It was a very close match with the final score being 4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3. BetFair has Ginepri as a slight favorite at -111 to +108 while SkyBet puts both men at -120 apiece.

The Pirates are 19th in the Majors with a 5.39 PASO.

8) Adam Wainwright has averaged 5.86 strikeouts in 28 starts this season and has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in exactly 50% of those games. Wainwright has faced Pittsburgh twice this season, striking out 7 on April 6^th, and striking out 6 on August 8^th. The Pirates are in the bottom half of the league in terms of plate appearances per strikeout at 5.39, 19^th worst in Major League Baseball. They're averaging 6.96 strikeouts per game, so they'll have to strike out a bit more than usual for Wainwright to win this prop. I think he can handle it though, Pittsburgh probably won't chase him giving Wainwright plenty of chances to record strikeouts.

9) The Yankees look to take another game in Toronto after winning yesterday 7-5. They grabbed a first inning 4-0 lead but from there had difficulty scoring. Twice in the latter innings they failed to score a runner on third with one out and for the game as a whole New York struck out a whopping 13 times. They probably won't jump out to such a lead against Toronto ace Roy Halladay, but with Joba Chamberlain pitching I do feel they'll be able to stay in the game. Clicking on Halladay's name here one can see his game log. Halladay has given up 4, 7, and 4 earned runs in his last three starts. He pitched a complete game against the Yankees near the beginning of the season, a win for Toronto. Since then he's pitched Toronto to a couple of losses, most recently on August 4^th where he conceded 4 earned runs. As long as Chamberlain stays steady I think the Yankees will be able to either chase Halladay and win big or stay in the game and win a close one. Even the Yankees slump offensively, but I don't see it happening tonight.

The BC Lions have one of the worst offenses in the CFL, can they stop league leaders Montreal?

16) I have seen lines for this game at 53.5, 54, and 54.5 which would imply the under is slightly favored here. I still like 55 or more points to be scored however. Last season Montreal and B.C. combined for 70 points in B.C. and scored 55 points between themselves in the game at Montreal. So far this season 55 or over has won 3 out of 4 games in B.C. with their opponents scoring most of the points. Montreal is 3-1-0 away from home and leads the league in overall scoring with 271 points in 8 games. I'm hoping they can tack on 40 points or so on their own.