September 4th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)I got a little reckless today and ended up dumping my streak on Dementieva. Definitely underestimated Melanie Oudin who ended up beating Dementieva in a huge upset. Safina dropped the first set of her match against Barrois but came back to take the next two sets 6-3 apiece. I got back on track with Pujols and Holliday and then capped the day off with a Yankees win in Toronto. We've got a ton of picks tomorrow and if you're not going for the monthly I recommend staying off the front 9 golf props and maybe going with some straight up MLB. Good luck and on to the picks.

Picks
1) Angel Cabrera vs. Scott Verplank - Cabrera cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Woody Austin's Score On The Par 5 18^th: Par (5) vs. Any Other Score - Par (5)
3) Serena Williams vs. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez - 17 games or more played
4) Y.E. Yang vs. Zach Johnson - Johnson cards a lower front 9 score
5) Nicolas Almagro vs. Robby Ginepri - Ginepri
6) Phil Mickelson's Score On The Par 5 18^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Birdie (4)
7) New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun - Connecticut
8) Strikeouts Recorded By Adam Wainwright (Cardinals @ Pirates): 5 Or Fewer vs. 6 Or More - 6 or more
9) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - New York
10) Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota
11) Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Tulane Green Wave - 64 points or fewer
12) Nicolas Kiefer vs. Rafael Nadal - 28 games or fewer played
13) San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
14) Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics - Seattle
15) Atlanta Dream @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
16) Montreal Alouettes @ B.C. Lions - 55 points or more

Previews

Mickelson		Austin
2007	2008	2003	2004	2007	2008
5	5	5	8	4	5
3	4	5	5	5	4
4	4	--	--	5	4
4	--	--	--	4	4
Gray scores are 'any other result'.

2/6) Here's some scores on that par 5 18^th for Mickelson and Woody Austin. The gray scores indicate 'any other result', i.e. non-birdies for Mickelson and non-pars for Austin. One can see Mickelson birdied this hole in 4 of 7 rounds while Austin scored par in 6 of 12 rounds.

5) Robby Ginepri is 1-0 in his career against Nicolas Almagro, winning on the hard courts in Sydney in 2007. It was a very close match with the final score being 4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3. BetFair has Ginepri as a slight favorite at -111 to +108 while SkyBet puts both men at -120 apiece.

The Pirates are 19th in the Majors with a 5.39 PASO.

8) Adam Wainwright has averaged 5.86 strikeouts in 28 starts this season and has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in exactly 50% of those games. Wainwright has faced Pittsburgh twice this season, striking out 7 on April 6^th, and striking out 6 on August 8^th. The Pirates are in the bottom half of the league in terms of plate appearances per strikeout at 5.39, 19^th worst in Major League Baseball. They're averaging 6.96 strikeouts per game, so they'll have to strike out a bit more than usual for Wainwright to win this prop. I think he can handle it though, Pittsburgh probably won't chase him giving Wainwright plenty of chances to record strikeouts.

9) The Yankees look to take another game in Toronto after winning yesterday 7-5. They grabbed a first inning 4-0 lead but from there had difficulty scoring. Twice in the latter innings they failed to score a runner on third with one out and for the game as a whole New York struck out a whopping 13 times. They probably won't jump out to such a lead against Toronto ace Roy Halladay, but with Joba Chamberlain pitching I do feel they'll be able to stay in the game. Clicking on Halladay's name here one can see his game log. Halladay has given up 4, 7, and 4 earned runs in his last three starts. He pitched a complete game against the Yankees near the beginning of the season, a win for Toronto. Since then he's pitched Toronto to a couple of losses, most recently on August 4^th where he conceded 4 earned runs. As long as Chamberlain stays steady I think the Yankees will be able to either chase Halladay and win big or stay in the game and win a close one. Even the Yankees slump offensively, but I don't see it happening tonight.

The BC Lions have one of the worst offenses in the CFL, can they stop league leaders Montreal?

16) I have seen lines for this game at 53.5, 54, and 54.5 which would imply the under is slightly favored here. I still like 55 or more points to be scored however. Last season Montreal and B.C. combined for 70 points in B.C. and scored 55 points between themselves in the game at Montreal. So far this season 55 or over has won 3 out of 4 games in B.C. with their opponents scoring most of the points. Montreal is 3-1-0 away from home and leads the league in overall scoring with 271 points in 8 games. I'm hoping they can tack on 40 points or so on their own.