September 5th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Wow, just a horrid day for my picks, I'm lucky to have picked up two wins. Started out with Verplank mauling the front 9. One eagle and a few birdies later he was 5-under. Of course Cabrera was three strokes better on the back 9 to even things up after he lost the front 9 prop. I then lost with Woody Austin getting onto the green in 3 strokes and putting in from close. After that I won with Serena Williams being taken to 21 games. Then it was back to losing when Phil Mickelson missed a five footer for birdie. Things continued to be ridiclously shitty when Wienerwright [sic] got lit up in the 5^th inning to the tune of 6 runs. He got pulled after that and finished with 5 strikeouts, one away from winning the prop. Fortunately, I ended the day on a high note with the Seattle Mariners picking up another win on the road. So on to the picks of tomorrow!

Picks
1) Ian Poulter vs. Stewart Cink - Poulter cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Macedonia @ Scotland - 2 goals or fewer
3) Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Syracuse Orange - Paulus throws 0 or 1 touchdown passes
4) Navy @ Ohio State vs. Kentucky @ Miami(OH) - Kentucky and Miami(OH) score more combined points
5) Jie Zheng @ Nadia Petrova - Petrova
6) Steve Stricker vs. Tiger Woods - Stricker cards a lower or equal front 9 score
7) John Isner vs. Andy Roddick - Roddick wins 3-0
8) Baylor Bears @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Baylor
9) Georgia Bulldogs @ Oklahoma State Cowboys - Oklahoma State
10) Matt Cain vs. Yovani Gallardo - Gallardo records more strikeouts
11) Carl Edwards vs. Mike Vickers - Edwards has a better final position
12) Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros - Houston
13) BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners - Longest touchdown is 59 yards or more
14) Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
15) Alabama @ Virginia Tech - Alabama scores more 1^st half points
16) El Salvador @ United States - United States wins by 2 goals or more
17) Brazil @ Argentina - Brazil win or draw
18) LSU Tigers @ Washington Huskies - LSU winning margin

September 4th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)I got a little reckless today and ended up dumping my streak on Dementieva. Definitely underestimated Melanie Oudin who ended up beating Dementieva in a huge upset. Safina dropped the first set of her match against Barrois but came back to take the next two sets 6-3 apiece. I got back on track with Pujols and Holliday and then capped the day off with a Yankees win in Toronto. We've got a ton of picks tomorrow and if you're not going for the monthly I recommend staying off the front 9 golf props and maybe going with some straight up MLB. Good luck and on to the picks.

Picks
1) Angel Cabrera vs. Scott Verplank - Cabrera cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Woody Austin's Score On The Par 5 18^th: Par (5) vs. Any Other Score - Par (5)
3) Serena Williams vs. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez - 17 games or more played
4) Y.E. Yang vs. Zach Johnson - Johnson cards a lower front 9 score
5) Nicolas Almagro vs. Robby Ginepri - Ginepri
6) Phil Mickelson's Score On The Par 5 18^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Birdie (4)
7) New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun - Connecticut
8) Strikeouts Recorded By Adam Wainwright (Cardinals @ Pirates): 5 Or Fewer vs. 6 Or More - 6 or more
9) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - New York
10) Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota
11) Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Tulane Green Wave - 64 points or fewer
12) Nicolas Kiefer vs. Rafael Nadal - 28 games or fewer played
13) San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
14) Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics - Seattle
15) Atlanta Dream @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
16) Montreal Alouettes @ B.C. Lions - 55 points or more

Previews

Mickelson		Austin
2007	2008	2003	2004	2007	2008
5	5	5	8	4	5
3	4	5	5	5	4
4	4	--	--	5	4
4	--	--	--	4	4
Gray scores are 'any other result'.

2/6) Here's some scores on that par 5 18^th for Mickelson and Woody Austin. The gray scores indicate 'any other result', i.e. non-birdies for Mickelson and non-pars for Austin. One can see Mickelson birdied this hole in 4 of 7 rounds while Austin scored par in 6 of 12 rounds.

5) Robby Ginepri is 1-0 in his career against Nicolas Almagro, winning on the hard courts in Sydney in 2007. It was a very close match with the final score being 4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3. BetFair has Ginepri as a slight favorite at -111 to +108 while SkyBet puts both men at -120 apiece.

The Pirates are 19th in the Majors with a 5.39 PASO.

8) Adam Wainwright has averaged 5.86 strikeouts in 28 starts this season and has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in exactly 50% of those games. Wainwright has faced Pittsburgh twice this season, striking out 7 on April 6^th, and striking out 6 on August 8^th. The Pirates are in the bottom half of the league in terms of plate appearances per strikeout at 5.39, 19^th worst in Major League Baseball. They're averaging 6.96 strikeouts per game, so they'll have to strike out a bit more than usual for Wainwright to win this prop. I think he can handle it though, Pittsburgh probably won't chase him giving Wainwright plenty of chances to record strikeouts.

9) The Yankees look to take another game in Toronto after winning yesterday 7-5. They grabbed a first inning 4-0 lead but from there had difficulty scoring. Twice in the latter innings they failed to score a runner on third with one out and for the game as a whole New York struck out a whopping 13 times. They probably won't jump out to such a lead against Toronto ace Roy Halladay, but with Joba Chamberlain pitching I do feel they'll be able to stay in the game. Clicking on Halladay's name here one can see his game log. Halladay has given up 4, 7, and 4 earned runs in his last three starts. He pitched a complete game against the Yankees near the beginning of the season, a win for Toronto. Since then he's pitched Toronto to a couple of losses, most recently on August 4^th where he conceded 4 earned runs. As long as Chamberlain stays steady I think the Yankees will be able to either chase Halladay and win big or stay in the game and win a close one. Even the Yankees slump offensively, but I don't see it happening tonight.

The BC Lions have one of the worst offenses in the CFL, can they stop league leaders Montreal?

16) I have seen lines for this game at 53.5, 54, and 54.5 which would imply the under is slightly favored here. I still like 55 or more points to be scored however. Last season Montreal and B.C. combined for 70 points in B.C. and scored 55 points between themselves in the game at Montreal. So far this season 55 or over has won 3 out of 4 games in B.C. with their opponents scoring most of the points. Montreal is 3-1-0 away from home and leads the league in overall scoring with 271 points in 8 games. I'm hoping they can tack on 40 points or so on their own.

September 3rd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-0-0 today and I finally reached that coveted blue star. Started the day with Jurgen Melzer. I was cringing at the thought of another blown streak when he lost the first set 1-6 but before I knew it he was back on top winning the next three 6-4 6-3 6-4. I avoided the Argentine soccer where Estudiantes held on for a close 2-2 draw. They were up in the first half 2-2 then suddenly around 75 minutes in San Lorenzo equalized. Close call for all those going with the odds. Then I picked up win 10 with Billingsley giving up a double and a home run after taking a no-hitter into the 5^th inning. My cable provider blacked out the game right after the double, thanks for removing the anticipation I'm not a fan of watching the snail's pace of baseball anyways. College football starts tomorrow so it's on to the picks. Good luck!

No Last Hurrahs As Safin Falls In First Round

J. Melzer def. M. Safin 1-6 6-4 6-3 6-4

It looked pretty iffy after losing the first set 1-6 but Melzer found his game after that for three straight sets.

``Safin came out in the opening set and looked awe-inspiring, much like he did when he burst on the scene at the 2000 US Open and, at the ripe age of 20, upset the then 13-time Grand Slam winner and seemingly unbeatable Sampras to take his first Grand Slam title. But even as he charged out ahead, you could sense that this might get complicated for Safin. Melzer became scrappier, lengthening the points and forcing Safin to work harder. Serving at 3-4 in the second, 15-15, the two players had a long rally and Safin looked winded. He double faulted on the next point to go down 15-40. While he managed to save the two break points and hold serve, you sensed that Safin was beginning to crack."

Read More....Match Stats

Diamondbacks Four Run Fifth Proves Enough To Trip Up Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks 4 - 1 Los Angeles Dodgers
Billingsley 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 K, 1 BB

Chad Billingsley took a no-hit bid into the fifth inning before giving up four runs.

``Brandon Allen had no doubt the ball was going out this time. Sure enough, his towering drive landed halfway up the right field pavilion. He homered on the first pitch from Chad Billingsley a night after being robbed of a pinch-hit, potential game-winning two-run homer on an outstanding catch by right fielder Andre Ethier. Billingsley was cruising along, having retired the first 13 batters he faced before the D-backs got to him for three consecutive one-out hits in the fifth. Then, with two outs, the right-hander allowed another three hits in a row."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Elena Dementieva (v. Melanie Oudin) vs. Dinara Safina (v. Kristina Barrois) - Dementieva wins by more games
2) Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
3) Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder vs. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday - Pujols and Holliday record more total bases
4) James Blake vs. Olivier Rochus: Blake Wins 3-0 vs. Any Other Result - Blake wins 3-0
5) Tacuary @ Sol de América - Tacuary win or draw
6) South Carolina Gamecocks @ North Carolina State Wolfpack - 47 points or more
7) San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies - San Francisco
8) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - New York
9) New York Giants @ New England Patriots - New England
10) North Texas Mean Green @ Ball State Cardinals, Ball State Scores: 39 Or Fewer vs. 40 Or More - 40 or more
11) Marc Gicquel vs. Andy Roddick - 28 games or fewer played
12) Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
13) Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos - Boise State

Previews

Elena Dementieva has better odds to win the U.S. Open crown than Dinara Safina.

1) Here I think Dementieva is just playing better tennis at the moment. She won her first round 6-1 6-2 whil Safina dropped a set in her match. I know Safina can be dangerous and she's world #1 by going deep into tournament after tournament. Last week was not a deep foray, however, as she lost in the first round. In the same tournament Dementieva beat Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova in straight sets to take another championship. SkyBet has Safina at 1/16 (-1600) with a handicap of 6 games and Dementieva at 1/33 (-3300) with a handicap of 6.5 games. Odds favor Dementieva here and I think Barrois could extend Safina's struggles. Dementieva has also won over 61% of her total games in 2009 while Safina has won 59%.

Detroit needs a solid game from Nate Robertson, especially if Carmona pitches at 100%.

2) Detroit is leading the AL Central and at 44-22 wins 2 out of every 3 games at home. Cleveland is 30-39 on the road, not terrible, but not good either. They can play well offensively and are 7^th in the majors in runs scored but their pitching, especially relief pitching, has not been a strength this season. Detroit's starter Nate Robertson< has been converted from a relief pitching role in place of Armando Gallarraga. He'll probably only throw 70-80 pitches tonight but fortunately the Tigers have a solid bullpen with guys like Lyon, Rodney, Seay, and Te-Ni. Of course, if Fausto Carmona has a good game, which he does every once in a while, and Robertson folds early Cleveland could definitely pull off the win here.

3) Pujols, Pujols, Pujols. The man is a beast and while he's going to go hitless in a quarter of his games like any other top-level slugger he also leads the majors in home runs. Looking at the graphs to the right one can see spikes in Pujols overall games at 4 and 8 total bases representing his home run and multi-home run games. Those bumps are absent in Holliday's numbers but he does have a nice plateau at 3, 4, and 5 total bases so he gets a good number of extra base hits. For Milwaukee Prince Fielder is the bigger home run threat, but one can also see he goes hitless in over 30% of his games which is poor and probably a result of teams being able to pitch around him. Braun is a bigger threat than Holliday, but if John Smoltz can neutralize the threat from him I feel confident Manny Parra will give up the hits to the Cardinals duo. Braun and Fielder have a combined slugging percentage of 1.146 and Pujols and Holliday combine for a 1.193 slugging percentage, a very slight edge.

Proportions of total games with 'N' total bases. Click image for larger view.

7) Gah, I have a bad feeling about taking the Giants here. Yes, Tim Lincecum will pitch terrifically, he does that often. The Phillies batters have a lifetime .206 batting average, .361 slugging average and an abysmal .606 OPS. I just have a bad feeling the Giants will fail to muster any run support for the guy. San Francisco is averaging just 3.69 runs per game on the road. Pedro Martinez may be old but he's still keeping Philadelphia in the game. Unless Lincecum can pitch 7 strong innings and the Giants can take a lead into the 8^th I think Philadelphia finds away to manufacture a go-ahead run. Very close and I would pick Philadelphia here against any pitcher in the league, except Lincecum.

The Yankees will need those red bats swingin' as it's unlikely Chad Gaudin can shut down the Blue Jays in Toronto.

8) The Yankees have been stellar in the second half of the season, going 34-11 since the All-Star break. The Blue Jays have managed to go only 15-27 in that span. Ricky Romero is a pretty good pitcher when he's on and the Blue Jays are always tough at Rogers Centre where they are 34-32 this season. Still, the Yankees are the best offense in baseball in terms of runs, slugging, on-base, and OPS. Romero is definitely better than Chad Gaudin who has been shuffled in and out of the bullpen by the Yankees and Padres this season. If ever there were a pitching matchup Toronto could take advantage of it would be this one. Toronto has gone 1-1 with Romero pitching against New York, both in NYC and both 1 run games. I'll leave my pick on the Yankees still with Toronto's bullpen facing the Yankees' bats. They'll need 'em to make sure Gaudin doesn't put them in too big a hole.

13) Boise State is favored in this one over at 5dimes.com at -160 odds with Oregon clocking in at +140. Oregon may want revenge for the loss their suffered at the hands of the Broncos in Eugene last season but Boise State should be the better team overall this season. I also like that Boise State plays on blue colored artificial turf. That's got to be distracting if you haven't practiced on it before.

September 2nd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-0-1 today. I took Bohemians to win by more than Derry City but I was fairly sure both teams would lose. Neither team has been able to string together four wins in a row this season reliably. Then I took Manny Ramirez to make an out with his second plate appearance, which he did. Now I'm bearing down on a W10 once again. This time I'll just keep picking like I have been rather than skipping a day waiting for something nice looking but ultimately wrong to come along. A number of solid picks to extend your streaks are up on the board tomorrow. I'll try and throw out some quick rationale for each pick rather than posting lengthy-ish previews or nothing at all. Good luck and on to the picks.

Picks
1) Jurgen Melzer vs. Marat Safin - Melzer
2) Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
3) Estudiantes La Plata @ San Lorenzo - Estudiantes La Plata win or draw
4) Richard Gasquet vs. Rafael Nadal - 28 games or more played
5) San Diego Padres (v. Nationals) vs. Oakland Athletics (vs. Royals) - Athletics have a larger victory margin
6) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - Los Angeles
7) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
8) Serena Williams vs. Melinda Czink - Williams loses 5 games or fewer
9) New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies - 10 runs or more scored
10) How Many Earned Runs Will Chad Billingsley Allow (Diamondbacks @ Dodgers): 0 or 1 vs. 2 Or More - 2 or more

Previews
1) Melzer vs. Safin: With this one the odds simply favor Melzer at 8/11 (-137.5) to evens (+100) for Safin. Throw in that Melzer is 3-1 all-time against Safin and it looks like as good a bet as any straight up tennis pick.

2) Mark Buehrle just hasn't been his old self against the Twins lately. He's pitched against them four times this season and had very different results of late. At The Cell he's given up 2 runs in 13¹/₃ innings in two games, both in the first half of the season and both wins for the Sox. At the Metrodome, however, he gave up 13 runs in 9²/₃ innings over two games, both losses. The White Sox have been slumping lately and recently traded away Jim Thome. They're only 28-39 on the road as well, while Minnesota is 39-29 at home.

5) Felix Hernandez is easily in the top 3 AL pitchers but that does not really matter when facing the L.A. Angels. He's pitched against them once already this season, a 6-5 loss where King Felix gave up 6 earned runs. Last night rookie pitcher Doug Fister held the Angels down for 1 run and the Mariners won 2-1, so clearly the Angels are not invincible. I would say they have the game to lose, however. If they're batting well it doesn't matter who's pitching against them.

10) Chad Billingsley has allowed 2 or more earned runs in 21 of his 27 starts this season. Sounds pretty good, but the main caveat is that one of those 6 games allowing zero or one earned run was against the Diamondbacks, a 1-0 win on June 3^rd in Los Angeles.

September 1st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-0-0 today as I picked up wins with Barçelona and the L.A. Angels. Streak for the cash may be riddled with unforeseen upsets but today it was a good idea to go with the better teams. Tomorrow looks to be a little tougher than today was with games between cellar dwelling K.C. at Oakland but there it's probably a good idea to just go with the home team. Good luck and on to the picks!

No Henry, No Messi, No Problem For Ibra And Mates

FC Barçelona 3 - 0 Sporting Gijon

Barçelona was missing a number of key players, but then so were Sporting Gijon. The Nou Camp visitors started 5 off-season signings.

``Keita, Bojan and Maxwell all started in a new-look Barcelona side, as Thierry Henry and Yaya Toure were left on the bench and Rafa Marquez and Andres Iniesta - on their way back from injury - watched on from the stands, along with new signing Dmitro Chygrynsky. Sporting came into this game with five players missing through injury and coach Manuel Preciado opted to field all five summer signings from the start. It was proving something of a frustrating evening for [Ibrahimovic], but he finally got his reward eight minutes from time when he was left all alone to finish with ease at the back post after Sporting had once again failed to deal with a Barca corner. The Barca striker looked to be in an offside position, but he will hardly care now that he is off the mark for his new club."

Read More....Box ScoreHighlights

Guerrero, Angels Still Have That Scoring Touch

Los Angeles Angels 10 - 0 Seattle Mariners

The Angels were something like 4-7 lately so one had to assume they'd put together a winning streak of some sort. A one game streak is good enough for me.

``Vladimir Guerrero hit two home runs, one a monster shot into the upper deck, teammate Juan Rivera added a three-run homer and the Los Angeles Angels reminded the Seattle Mariners who rules the AL West with a 10-0 runaway victory on Monday night. In the meantime, the results were predictable against Joe Saunders. He improved to 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three starts against Seattle this season. Saunders (11-7) allowed the AL's lowest-scoring team just three hits over seven innings in his second start following a three-week hiatus for shoulder inflammation. The only Mariner to reach second on anything other than a walk was Josh Wilson. The fill-in third baseman doubled in the sixth off Saunders. French allowed a season-high seven runs and 10 hits in five innings. It was his sixth and by far worst start since French joined Seattle in the Jarrod Washburn trade a month ago."

Read More....Box ScorePhotos

Picks
1) Jarkko Nieminen vs. Fabio Fognini - Nieminen
2) Dinara Safina vs. Olivia Rogowska - 16 games or fewer played
3) Derry City (v. Galway United) vs. Bohemians Dublin (@ Sligo Rovers) - Bohemians larger margin of victory
4) Who Will Score First: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers - Toronto scores first
5) Tszvetana Pironkova vs. Maria Sharapova - Sharapova loses 6 games or fewer
6) Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
7) Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins - Atlanta
8) Phoenix Mercury @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
9) Connecticut Sun @ Sacramento Monarchs - Connecticut
10) Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
11) Manny Ramirez's Second Plate Appearance: Hit Or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Any other result

August 31st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)I didn't get a chance to make the full slate of picks yesterday but I was very fortunate to pick up a win with Everton and the Braves scoring the first run of their game. Everton won on a last minute penalty kick while the Braves lost the game but scored in the top of the 1^th with Martin Prado going yard. Tomorrow has some tough ones but hopefully a couple that one can count on to boost their streak. And so on to the picks!

Picks
1) Giovanni Lapentti vs. Simon Greul - Lapentti
2) Roger Federer vs. Devin Britton: How Many Games Will Federer Lose, 4 Or Fewer vs. 5 Or More - 5 or more
3) Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
4) Leicester City @ Newcastle United - 2 goals or fewer
5) Sporting Gijon @ FC Barçelona - FC Barçelona wins by 2 goals or more
6) Vera Dushevina vs. Venus Williams - 16 games or more played
7) How Many Runs Scored In 1^st Inning (Yankees @ Orioles): 0 or 1 run vs. 2 or more runs - 2 or more runs
8) Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans - Houston
9) What Will Be The First Score Of The Game (Vikings @ Texans): Touchdown vs. Field Goal or Safety - Touchdown
10) Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
11) Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres - Washington
12) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - Los Angeles
13) Runs Scored In Innings 4 Through 6 (Diamondbacks @ Dodgers): 2 Runs Or Fewer vs. 3 Runs Or More - 3 or more

August 29th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Yesterday was a bit of an up and down day for me on the Streak. I started out picking up a win with Sergio Garcia aided by Padraig's double bogey on that long par-5 eighth. Then I made the mistake of picking Mainz to win or draw at Borussia Monchengladbach instead of taking Tiger to hit worse than -3 to par. I got a win back when I randomly took the over on that WNBA game. There were 114 points scored in the first half alone! Finally, ended the day with a losing streak thanks to Felix Hernandez being less than perfect. Ah well, one good day and it's a whole new streak so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Arsenal @ Manchester United - Arsenal win or draw
2) Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions - Indianapolis
3) Detroit Shock @ San Antonio Silver Stars - San Antonio
4) Toronto FC @ Seattle Sounders FC - Toronto FC win or draw
5) New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders - Oakland
6) Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers - Tampa Bay
7) Who Will Win The 140^th Travers Stakes: Quality Road or Hold Me Back vs. Any Other Horse - Any other horse
8) Which Team Will Score The Games First Run: San Diego Padres vs. Florida Marlins - Florida
9) Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles - Baltimore
10) Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
11) Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 18 points or more scored in the 1^st half
12) San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons - Touchdown is the first scoring play
13) New York Jets @ New York Giants - Giants
14) Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco
15) Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
16) Chivas USA @ Los Angeles Galaxy - Los Angeles win