A Bleak Look At Cash

Friday, July 3, 2009

July 3rd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)4-1-0 today as my picks rebounded very well.. now to break .750... hah. Started out well with Serena and Dementieva playing an epic match that lasted over 150 minutes and took 39 games to complete. I guess I got psyched out from that, convincing myself Venus might actually drop a set. It wasn't even close and I ended up picking a loser with FK Sutjeska who drew against MTZ-RIPO. Got back on the winning track with Zestafoni, then continued with the New York Liberty, and finished off the day with the Angels hitting the first home run of the game. And so it's on to the picks.

Recaps

Serena Down Early Wills Herself To Final Round Match Against Sister Venus

S. Williams def. E. Dementieva 6-7(4) 7-5 8-6 (39 games played)

This was an epic match where Dementieva was perhaps a millimeter away from winning.

``Serena Williams battled through to the women's singles final by defeating Russia's Elena Dementieva 6-7 7-5 8-6. At two hours 49 minutes it was the longest women's semi-final at Wimbledon in the era of Open tennis. Dementieva, the Olympic champion, went into the match a clear underdog, despite a superior recent record against the American. But her beefed-up serve, her relentlessly accurate groundstrokes and her fighting spirit extended Williams to the very limit. The Russian applied pressure that Serena has certainly not seen in this tournament, or indeed for a long while. But, champion that she is, the response was there in the end, four games after she had fought off that match point with one of her more outrageous slices of good fortune, a forehand volley winner off the top of the net."

FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk 1 - 1 FK Sutjeska

There's not a lot that can be said here as these teams aren't the most popular even in their home nations. It was 0:0 at the half, Sutjeska scored early in the second half and MTZ-RIPO equalized with about 15 minutes remaining. I was fortunate to find highlights of the goals being scored. MTZ-RIPO's goal looked better I think.

Match MinutesHighlights

Banged Up Distillery Gets Knocked About By Georgian Outfit Zestafoni

FC Zestafoni 5 - 1 Lisburn Distillery

I guess Lisburn Distillery never really had a chance in this match.

``Things looked distinctly ominous and although Andy Kilmartin forced Zurab Mamaladze into a save on 29 minutes — before he also stopped Stephen Shaw's follow up — worse was to come for the Whites. Irakli slipped a superb ball over the defence on 34 minutes and Gelashvili turned back inside to fire home from 12-yards out. Four minutes later the nightmare continued, the Distillery defence failed to clear and Grigalashvili cracked a 20-yard drive into the bottom corner. Two minutes before the break, Mamaladze made a good stop, springing to his left to keep out Philip Simpson's header before the shell-shocked Whites trooped off at the break."

Read more...Box ScorePlay-By-Play

Picks
1) How Many Sets Will Be Played Between Roger Federer And Tommy Haas: 3 sets vs. 4 or 5 sets - 3 sets
2) Tiger Woods' Second Round Score: 67 or lower vs. 68 or higher - 67 or lower
3) ODI Cricket: West Indies vs. India - India
4) How Many Sets Will Be Played Between Andy Roddick And Andy Murray: 3 sets vs. 4 or 5 sets - 3 sets
5) Anthony Kim vs. Jim Furyk - Kim cards a lower front 9 score
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs - Milwaukee
7) Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
8) Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox - Seattle
9) Washington Mystics @ Atlanta Dream - Atlanta
10) Chicago Sky @ San Antonio Silver Stars - San Antonio
11) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Busch has a better finishing position
12) San Jose Earthquakes @ Real Salt Lake - Real Salt Lake win
13) Los Angeles Dodgers (v. Padres) vs. Baltimore Orioles (v. Angels) - Orioles score more runs

Previews

Roger Federer (left) and Tommy Haas (right) are each playing some of their best tennis here at the end of the tournament. Can Haas duplicate his Roland Garros effort where he took a 2-0 lead on Federer?

1) Tommy Haas will face Roger Federer once again in a major tournament. Their last meeting was at this years Roland Garros, in the fourth round, a match where Haas took a 2-0 lead before Federer came storming back to win three sets in dominating fashion (6-4 6-0 6-2).

It's no surprise to see [Haas] here. He played great in Paris and he will be even tougher here as he prefers grass and hard courts to clay. I’ve trained with him a lot recently and

we often go out to get something to eat together.
---Roger Federer

Overall Federer is 9-2 against Haas over his career and has won 22 of 32 sets (68.8%) played between them. Federer has won 18 of 23 sets (78.2%) since the Australian Open in 2002, however, which was near the peak of Haas' success. A look at each man's run through the tournament shows that Federer has been absolutely dominant against all challengers, dropping only one set, in a tiebreak, to #32 Philipp Kohlschreiber. Haas has managed to kick his play up a few notches entering into the second week with his only straight sets victory coming against #26 Igor Andreev and a handy 4 set victory over Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Both men are playing in top form right now and Haas took Federer to five sets only a month ago. I think Federer will have that on his mind and will work to make sure he does not fall behind again. Federer is on a mission and he has the skill and ability to match and overwhelm Haas' serve and volley game. It may not be easy but I think Federer can and will take three sets as he bears down on history and his 15^th Grand Slam title.

Andy Roddick is 2-6 against Andy Murray with all but one of their matches being decided in straights sets, including a 3 set victory for Murray here at Wimbledon in 2006.

4) Andy Murray is only 22 years old and yet even in his short professional career he's managed to amass a 6-2 record against Andy Roddick. Murray was 20 years old when he recorded his first victory over Roddick, a straight sets win on the hard courts in San Jose. In fact, all but one of their eight matches have been decided in straight sets, including a 2006 victory for Murray at Wimbledon in 2006 (7-6(4) 6-4 6-4), though one of those matches ended early with a retirement by Roddick.

I'm just going to pretend when they say, ‘C'mon, Andy’, that they mean me.
---Andy Roddick

Obviously Roddick, along with Karlovic, is one of the best servers in the game. So against Roddick I'll obviously need to return very well.
---Andy Murray

Wimbledon has put together a decent preview of the match. They point out specifically that Roddick has served up over 130 aces and has been winning 81% of his first serve points. Those are fairly overwhelming numbers and suggest Murray will have a difficult time breaking Roddick's serve, which he would surely need to do at least once to win in straight sets; three straight tiebreak set wins is incredibly rare. Roddick is playing very well but has not really put together a complete match up to this point, aside from his straight sets victory over Tomas Berdych in the fourth round. Murray has had some difficult matches, against Stanislas Wawrinka and Robert Kendrick, but other than that has won each of his matches in straight sets. I think Murray has a difficult time against some of the big serve players, and Roddick is certainly that. I also think a break point here and there could hand the match to one player or the other, in straight sets. My recommendation would be to go for 4 or 5 sets, but as for myself I would pick 3 sets in continuing the tradition of one Andy or the other taking the match in that fashion.

Anthony Kim hoists the trophy at the AT&T National last year. He was three strokes in the lead after the first round. Jim Furyk has finished tied for third the past two years.

5) Defending AT&T National champion Anthony Kim has been billed as the next great American golfer after Tiger Woods. He shot a course record 8-under par 62 yesterday to take a three stroke lead so it's easy to believe he is exactly that. The round one recap details some of the other more impressive aspects of Kim's game. One that jumped out at me was that he's played 40 holes on the Blue Course at Colonial without carding a bogey. Kim's threesome includes Davis Love III and Jim Furyk. Furyk has finished tied for 3^rd in both of the two years of this events existence so he's no stranger to success on the Blue Course. Furyk has also been more successful than Kim on the Tour this year earning nearly twice as much money thus far. Kim currently holds a four stroke lead on Furyk at this particular event, however, and his 6-under par 29 on the front 9

literally blew away all other competition, including Jim Furyk who carded a 2-under 33.

After yesterday's round both Furyk and Kim have nine rounds completed at the Blue Course in this event. Furyk has carded front 9 scores under par in 6 of his rounds with his best score being a 32 which he has achieved twice. Kim has carded front 9 scores under par in 7 of his rounds with his best score obviously being the 29 he shot yesterday. Kim also has carded 32 and on four separate occasions. Although Furyk has been better on the Tour overall this year Kim has proven to be on his game this weekend. The danger with picking Anthony Kim in this matchup is that he has been erratic within tournaments, both this year and in years past. For example, in 2007 Anthony Kim shot a pair of 32's on the front 9 on Thursday and Friday and then proceeded to card scores of 37 and 41 on Saturday and Sunday. That was an outstanding turn of events, however, and I would not even bet on Kim reverting back to even par. Instead, I'm thinking this is a close matchup where Kim wins with a 33 to Furyk's 34.

==--~~Follow The Round With ShotTracker~~--==

Felix Hernandez goes for his eighth straight quality start against Tim Wakefield and the Red Sox.

8) The Seattle Mariners are moving along in their East coast trip. After taking 1 of 3 games against the Yankees they'll move on to Fenway Park to match skills against the Boston Red Sox. The Mariners have been playing better baseball lately with Ryan Lagerhans taking the place of Wladimir Balentien. Balentien has struggled lately and is also a right-handed batter while Lagerhans is a left-handed batter. Wakamatsu should be choosing Lagerhans to bat against right-handed knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. The Mariners are batting .294 in their past three games, compared to the Red Sox who are batting .303 who are also getting more total bases with a bit better baserunning. With Wakefield and Felix Hernandez on the mounds for their respective teams it should be a bit of a pitchers' duel.

Both pitchers give up a home run every 60 or so pitches swung at and the wind is will be blowing in from right field. If it has any effect on the flight path of pitches it will be to put the ball on the outside of the plate for left-handed batters, making this a lefty friendly environment. For the Mariners their best batters, Ichiro Suzuki and Russel Branyan are both left-handed batters, while the Red Sox will be relying on Ellsbury, Kotsay, and David Ortiz for their offense as they have a generally righty heavy lineup. This right here leads me to favor the Mariners in this game. Hernandez has pitched seven quality or gem starts in a row so one might expect him to have a poor outing. I would as well, except that for last season he put together a string of eight quality and gem starts, beginning at the end of May and finishing in the middle of July.

I think Tim Wakefield's knuckleball will thrive in an environment with constantly shifting wind and so he should do well tonight. Hernandez has the more favorable platoon split, however, so I would give the Mariners a better chance of hitting the home run. Both bullpens are quite good and so this will probably come down to who can take a lead into the seventh inning. If left-handed Mike Carp happens to get the start tonight I would certainly favor Seattle. Even if he does not I think Seattle has a good chance of winning this first game.

Recent Results
Real Salt Lake	San Jose
Toronto FC (3:0)	Los Angeles (2:1)
Houston (1:1)	Seattle Sounders FC (2:1)
Los Angeles (0:2)	Dallas (2:2)
Colorado (1:1)	Real Salt Lake (2:1)
San Jose (2:1)	Columbus (2:1)
Scores reported as (home:away)

12) The San Jose Earthquake are in last place in the Western Conference of Major League Soccer but have been in decent form lately with a 2-1-2 (W-D-L) record. Looking at the table to the right one sees neither of those wins came away from home and indeed San Jose is 0-1-6 on the road this season having conceded 17 goals while scoring only 6 of their own. Their defense has been a major concern, especially considering San Jose was one of the better defensive sides last season. They have already conceded 7 goals from set pieces which suggests it's not just the keeper who needs to step up their game.

Real Salt Lake lead the league with a +11 goal differential at home but will be playing without their starting midfield. Will they still have enough to put away basement-dwelling San Jose?

They will be facing a very strong home side in Real Salt Lake (RSL). Real Salt Lake are 4-2-1 at home and lead the league with 18 goals scored there and with 7 goals conceded at Rio Tinto Stadium are one of the top half defensive home sides. Unfortunately RSL will be missing their top three midfield starters for this match as Kyle Beckerman, Will Johnson and Jean Alexandre are all with their national teams for the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Real Salt Lake feel they have the depth to cope with that problem and they know they won't be able to take a win for granted as San Jose already defeated RSL in San Jose 2-1 this season. The only goal scorer for Real Salt Lake in that match was Robbie Findlay, who has been out of action since June 6^th. Findlay has been in full training the past week but is still unlikely to figure in the Starting XI. Clearly, RSL have their work cut out for them and it will be just as difficult for them to come away with the full three points as for San Jose. If their reserve midfielders are not up to the task RSL will have difficulty scoring goals. It will be their defense that will have to step up so look to see if Javier Morales is in the Starting XI for Real.

13) There's essentially two ways the Dodgers can win this prop. One, Manny Ramirez has a terrific return, belts out a multi-run homer, and gets at least one other extra base hit. The other way is for Ervin Santana (7.47 ERA and 1.85 WHIP) finally has a decent start and gives up three or four runs. Other than that I think the Dodgers are facing the more formidable pitching staff and the Orioles have a comparable offense which surprised me as well. One thing, Baltimore is scoring nearly a full run less on the road than at home while the Dodgers actually score nearly 0.3 more runs on the road this season. They're scoring less than 2 runs per game in their last five games, but there's a good chance they will snap out of it if 'score fast and early' Gaudin shows up. Good luck with this one.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

July 2nd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-3-0 today and I dipped back below .500 pretty severely. Well, here's to a full two weeks above the red line. I started the day with a loss picking against Federer who looks like he'll take the title in this tournament.. I'm guessing we see a total games prop for the men's final? Pure nuttery. Then won with the Nationals total hits, then lost with Kansas City and their ability to hit into double plays, won with the Braves and finally lost with the Stampeders who were unable to intercept a gimme with the score tied and threw an interception on the comeback drive. Thanks for the shout out from TheStreakMaster.com, also. Prop bets and MLB props especially seem to be my most successful category. So on to the confounded picks.

Recaps

Federer Through Playing Games, Easily Breaks Karlovic For Place In Semifinals

R. Federer def. I. Karlovic 6-3 7-5 7-6 (7-3)

Roger Federer looked scary good against Karlovic. From the way Murray, Haas, and Roddick have been playing it's hard to see where they have a chance of stopping Federer from making history.

``Roger Federer is in such confident form at the 2009 Championships that even staring down the barrel of a gun does not faze him. Required to reduce Ivo Karlovic, the game's most potent hitter, to firing blanks was a task taken in his stride as Wimbledon's five-time champion cruised into the semi-finals with a 6-3, 7-5, 7-6 (7-3) victory in an hour and 43 minutes. It was Federer who proved supreme when it came to serving. He conceded a mere 11 points in the whole match, never faced a break point and was only once threatened by having his delivery taken to deuce. By then it was midway through the third set and the outcome was long beyond conjecture. Even so, Karlovic managed to keep the second set wide open until the 11th game, when another supreme backhand service return winner took Federer to break point, at which Karlovic obliged with a low forehand volley into the net."

Marlins' Johnson Exits After 10 Outs But Florida Comes Out On Top Anyways

Florida Marlins 5 - 3 Washington Nationals (Josh Johnson 3.1 IP, 5 H, 3 K)

Somehow, I only gave up one run. I don't like it, but I'll take it.

---Florida Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson

``Florida starter Josh Johnson failed to get out of the fourth inning, his shortest appearance in 34 starts dating to June 23, 2007. Johnson yielded one run and five hits in 3 1/3 innings, with four walks and three strikeouts, and only 49 of his 89 pitches went for strikes. Most oddly, Johnson couldn't get Washington's starter out. Jordan Zimmermann had the first two hits of his career for Washington -- the rookie was hitless in 19 at-bats coming in -- and drove in the Nationals' first run with a second-inning single off Johnson. Zimmermann allowed two runs and six hits in six innings."

Read more....Box Score

Jurrjens Takes No-Hitter Into 7th, Braves Deliver With Six Run 5^th

Atlanta Braves 11 - 1 Philadelphia Phillies

Jair Jurrjens was phenomenal and Cole Hamels continued his struggles this season.

``Jurrjens (6-6) began the night with the seventh-lowest run support in the majors, including only five runs in his last four losses. That lack of support ended as the Braves scored seven runs off Cole Hamels (4-5), who left the game after giving up three hits and a walk in the fifth. Jurrjens' bid to become the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter against the Phillies since the Cardinals' Bob Forsch on April 16, 1978, ended with Paul Bako's single with two outs in the seventh. The Braves have won three straight. They are still three games under .500 but trail the first-place Phillies by only three games in the NL East."

Read more....Box Score

Anthony Calvillo And Als Get Revenge By Taking Advantage Of Stampeder Blunders

Montreal Alouettes 40 - 27 Calgary Stampeders

A 17-0 first quarter deficit was not too much to make up for Calgary, but it required some clutch play at the end which they could not muster.

``Avon Cobourne, Kerry Watkins and Chip Cox scored touchdowns for the Als, who were 0-3 versus Calgary last season including the loss in the Grey Cup. Calgary recovered from a horrendous opening quarter to put pressure on Montreal and tie the game at 27-27, but costly turnovers late in the fourth quarter helped end the Stamps' winning streak against the Als. Burris threw the ball into the arms of Montreal's Mark Estelle in the end zone with six minutes remaining. The Calgary pivot then coughed up the ball under pressure from Montreal's Anwar Stewart and Keron Williams and linebacker Chip Williams rumbled 81 yards for a touchdown at 12:45."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) How Many Games Will Be Played Between Serena Williams And Elena Dementieva: 18 or fewer vs. 19 or more - 19 or more
2) Sean O'Hair vs. K.J. Choi - Choi cards the same or lower front 9 score
3) Dinara Safina vs. Venus Williams - Venus Williams wins 2-0
4) FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk @ FK Sutjeska - FK Sutjeska win
5) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds - Arizona
6) Tiger Woods' Front 9 Score: 34 or lower vs. 35 or higher - 34 or lower
7) FC Zestafoni @ Lisburn Distillery - FC Zestafoni win or draw
8) How Many Runs, Hits, and Errors Will There Be (Astros @ Padres): 26 or fewer vs. 27 or more - 27 or more
9) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
10) San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - San Francisco
11) Detroit Shock @ New York Liberty - New York
12) Ryan Braun and Dave Cameron vs. Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano - Lee and Soriano record more total bases
13) Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
14) Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
15) Which Team Will Hit The First HR: Baltimore 1^st or none vs. Los Angeles 1^st - Los Angeles 1^st

Previews

Elena Dementieva and Serena Williams have battled one another over the years, each winning easily and each winning marathon matches. They're both playing at a high level at the moment. Can one really dominate the other?

1) Serena Williams and Elena Dementieva will clash for the third time this in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. The two split their first two meetings, both on hard courts, with Williams winning at the Australian Open 6-3 6-4 and Dementieva winning in Sydney 6-3 6-1. Overall Williams has won 5 of 8 matches against Dementieva since 2003 and of those 8 matches 5 have taken 19 games or more to decide a winner.

Williams v. Dementieva
Year	Surface	Winner	Games
2003	grass	Williams	18
2004	hard	Williams	22
2004	hard	Williams	14
2004	hard	Williams	25
2007	carpet	Dementieva	26
2008	hard	Dementieva	28
2009	hard	Dementieva	16
2009	hard	Williams	19

Both Williams and Dementieva are playing very well at the moment with neither player has lost a set up until this point. Williams has dropped 7 games in a match at most, in the first and third rounds to #154 Neuza Silva and to #53 Roberta Vinci while Dementieva has not dropped more than 5 games in a match. For 19 games to be played both Williams and Dementieva must win at least 7 games and there cannot be an early retirement. I think, given how well they have been playing, it would be a stretch to assume one or the other could take 12 games out of 18.

Keep Up With The Match Score At Wimbledon.Org

Venus Williams has been closed mouthed about the leg brace she has worn throughout Wimbledon. It's a preventative measure for a nagging injury, but she hasn't played as if she were injured in the slightest.

3) Dinara Safina may be ranked #1 in the world, but with five Wimbledon titles to her credit Venus Williams will be the outright favorite to win quickly when she takes the court in the quarterfinals today. Wimbledon has put up a preview of the match in which they paint a fairly bleak picture for Safina. Not only does Venus have several more Grand Slam wins and more experience in these big name tournaments but she's also been more dominant statistically in reaching the quarterfinals. Williams is putting more of her serves in play, recording more aces, fewer double faults, winning more of her first serve points and more of her return points. It's not that Safina has been unable to play with Venus in the past, she is #1 for a reason after all. This will be their fourth matchup all-time with Venus taking two in 2008 and Safina winning one earlier this year on the clay courts at Rome. I think Dinara Safina has been nervous as she's gone further into uncharted territory at Wimbledon. She's been able to control those nerves well enough to advance, but on the big stage against Venus Williams it would not be a surprise to see her struggle with her serve once again. On top of that I imagine Venus remembers vividly losing in three sets to Safina at Rome and will be focused on not letting it happen again. Venus' leg brace could be a cause for concern as any potential injury she's playing through would only get worse as she progressed through the tournament, but she's given no indication it's a bother at all. I think Safina may be able to break Venus' serve, but the reverse is at least as likely. In a tiebreak situation Venus' experience and overall stronger play under pressure should see her through to win the set.

FK Sutjeska - #3 in Prva Crnogorska Liga last season; (home) 14-2-1 28GS:8GA

FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk - #9 in Cempionat; (away) 2-1-3 7GS:12GA

4) Today marks the start of the UEFA's new and improved Cup tournament now under the guise of the Europa League. The first qualifying round takes some of the top teams from the bottom order European domestic leagues and has them play two-leg knockout ties to determine who will join the upper tier clubs in the group stage.

FC MTZ-RIPO Minsk started in 1948 as the sports section of the Minsk Tractor Plant and merged with the Republican Institute for Vocational Eduction (RIPO) in 2002. They play in the Cempionat, the top-flight Belarussian league, and booked a place in the Europa League with their third place finish in the last season which ended on November 16^th. They are 11 matches into the current season and currently lie in ninth place with a 4-2-5 record. Away from home they have been one of the better performers of the Cempionat, but are still only 2-1-3 with 7 goals scored and 12 goals conceded.

I never expected we'd get this far. My only wish was to have a peaceful season, without fear of relegation. Now the players must cope with another kind of pressure. I am looking forward to see how they respond.

---FK Sutjeska coach Nikola Rakojević

FK Sutjeska play in the Prva Crnogorska Liga, the top-flight league in Montenegro. Their season just wrapped up on May 30^th with FK Sutjeska finishing third, capping what was something of a Cinderella season. The '07/'08 season had them fighting off relegation so they were not expected to do much in '08/'09. Part of the reason was their standing from the year before, but also because of the extreme youth of their team, which had only three players over the age of 25 at the start of last season. They built much of their success around strong home match play, with 14 of their 19 victories coming at Stadion Gradski Nikšića. They were 14-2-1 there with 28 goals scored and 8 goals conceded.

Both of these teams are probably long shots to make it to the group stage and while MTZ-RIPO are from a stronger domestic league they are simply not terribly strong away from home. I think playing away from not only their home pitch but also their home nation will be a major factor in this match and FK Sutjeska will be able to take a 2-0 lead into the second leg of the tie.

Lisburn Distillery was 4^th last season in the Northern Ireland Premiership; (home) 7-3-6 26GS:19GA

FC Zestafoni - 4^th in the Umaglesi Liga; (away) 6-4-5 15GS:13GA

7) This first round qualifier for the Europa League pits two teams who finished in fourth place last season in their respective leagues. Both leagues are currently in their off-seasons and so I would expect each side to be more or less at full strength with their last competitive matches having been played in March for Lisburn Distillery and in May for FC Zestafoni. Looking at Lisburn's home record one sees they were the seventh best home side, with a 7-3-6 record and +7 goal differential. Not a very impressive home record in my opinion, especially considering Northern Ireland's Association football is ranked 46^th of 53. FC Zestafoni play in the Umaglesi Liga in Georgia which is ranked 38^th in Europe. A look at their away record shows FC Zestafoni were one of the better away sides in their league (5^th) with a 6-4-5 record and +2 goal differential. I think FC Zestafoni are a stronger side playing in a stronger league and I think they will win the match outright. SkyBet and BetFair have Zestafoni as slight favorites or even odds to win and adding on the odds for a draw makes this pick a very heavy favorite (about 64% or -200).

Click image for larger version. Houston/San Diego hits, runs, and errors over the past two weeks. Use the zoom tool to get a better view.

8) The Houston Astros and San Diego Padres are averaging a combined 5.45 runs, 12.67 hits, and 0.33 errors per game in their series, for a grand total of 18.45 hits, runs, and errors per game in this series. The greatest total in the series was in the second game where the teams combined for 22 hits, runs, and errors. The chart above shows the runs, hits, and errors for each team in their last 15 games. From the table or the graph one can see that these teams put up their share of 26 to 27 total (13 or more) in about half of their games. On average the Astros record 13.29 runs, hits, and errors and the Padres contribute 12.52 which would favor the 26 or fewer pick with 25.81 total. Their opponents, however, average a combined 28.23 runs, hits, and errors. This prop isn't really about averages though, it's about how well the starting pitchers and bullpen can limit the opponents' ability to hit the ball and score runs.

2009 Pitching Stats
	Rodriguez	Correia
H/6	5.70	5.16
R/6	2.67	2.82
	HOU Bullpen	SD Bullpen
H/3	3.00	2.94
ER/3	1.33	1.31
Totals
	Houston	San Diego
H w/Pitcher	8.70	8.10
Opp. R Season	4.45	4.95
Errors/Gm	0.51	0.48
Totals	13.66	13.53

The table to the left suggests 27.19 runs, hits, and errors will be recorded in this game which does not leave much room for error, but does suggest 27 or more should be slightly favored. Considering none of the games in the series have gone for more than 22 runs, hits, and errors and only one error has been committed by the two teams combined I would say this will most likely end up with 24 to 26 total, but could easily go well over if either pitcher has a poor start. 26 or fewer is the riskier pick in my opinion so I'll switch to 27 or more.

The Angels' John Lackey gives up far fewer home runs (1.01 HR/9) than his coutnerpart, Jeremy Guthrie (1.67 HR/9)

15) Let me start by saying I have a sneaking suspicion the Orioles are going to come away as victors in this game. As for this `Who will hit the first home run' prop I am fairly confident the Angels will win. Jeremy Guthrie is the starting pitcher for Baltimore. Of the pitches Guthrie throws which are put into play 44.3% are fly balls this season and 12.5% of those end up being home runs. 86.7% of Guthrie's pitches that are swung at contact is made so essentially batters have needed only swing at 20 of his pitches to get a home run this season. The picture for John Lackey is not quite as bleak. When the ball is put into play off of one of his pitches it is a flyball 35.6% of the time and of those fly balls only 9.4% go the distance. Contact is made with only 79.2% of his pitches swung at so that on average batters must swing at 38 of his pitches to hit a home run. Overall Guthrie gives up 1.67 home runs per 9 innings pitched while Lackey is giving up 1.01 per 9 this season.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

July 1st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-2-0 today as I learned a valuable lesson. Taking the home team in the WNBA is not always a good substitute for a random MLB pick. My WNBA record moved to 2-1-0 today with the Atlanta Dream losing. They won 4 games total last season. They're still looking for win #5 this season. Another day over .500 making this my best run of luck at this game thus far. I lost with Safina, then won with Serena, then lost with Atlanta, and won with... 3 runs or fewa'. And now on to the picks.

Recaps

Dinara Safina Overcomes Early Match Jitters To Book Her Place In The Final Four

D. Safina def. S. Lisicki 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-1

Dinara Safina had 7 double faults in the first set alone. Fortunately Lisicki wasn't flawless on the court herself.

``Safina was to be less fortunate in her second service game. Two double faults presented her opponent with a pair of break points which the Russian promptly saved, but when a third one came, disaster struck. A point had to be replayed after a call was overruled, which meant that Dinara had to go through the chore of serving all over again. A third double-fault later and Lisicki was in the driving seat. At 5-3, all [Lisicki] had to do was serve out for the set, but it was as if she suddenly realised that the pressure was now on her. Safina needed no second bidding, breaking back to 15 then holding her nerve to level at 5-5. The best chance for the six-foot Muscovite to take the set was via another break, but Lisicki got her stroke-making back and the scoreboard announced 6-6. Lisicki soon had three set points [in the tiebreak] only to wobble again, putting an easy volley wide on the second one with the court at her mercy. She challenged the call, and while she may or may not have believed that the ball had clipped the line, it gave Safina an extra 30 seconds to wait before serving. By default or design on Lisicki’s part, it was a masterstroke – Safina double-faulted, as she had done on match point in the final of the French, and handed the set to the teenager."

Serena Wows, Overpowers Azarenka For Semis Spot

S. Williams def. V. Azarenka 6-2 6-3 (17 games total)

Serena Williams said she felt she could up her intensity yesterday. She can. She feels she'll need to take it up another notch to win this thing they call Wimbledon.

``It was the power and intensity of [Serena's] game that was so stunning, and never mind that once again she was playing with both ankles heavily taped. Azarenka is rarely overawed by anything, and she herself was having a fine time hammering away from the baseline. But such was Serena’s aggression that the Belarusian simply could not stay with her. Serena’s play was littered with dazzling touches – a lovely running crosscourt forehand here, a 120mph serve there. [In the second set] Williams saved one break point with a smash that only just crept over the net. Serena sent a forehand long for another opportunity, but then delivered three aces in a row to rescue the game. At 2-2 Azarenka broke the Williams serve with an excellent return. But in the next game she gave away a string of break points with horrible mistakes, and on the third break point she made another error to put the set back on serve. By now she was leaking errors and Serena forced the conclusive breakthrough for 5-3, before serving out to love to secure her place in the last four."

Lynx Less Augustus Deny Dream Club Record Fifth Win

Minnesota Lynx 91 - 85 Atlanta Dream

Even the box score is unavailable on this one.

``Candice Wiggins has picked up her production since the Minnesota Lynx lost Seimone Augustus for the season. Wiggins scored 23 points and Nicky Anosike had 20 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Lynx to a 91-85 win over the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday night. Charde Houston added 18 points for Minnesota (7-3), which made 13 3-pointers to win their third straight. Roneeka Hodges had 15 points on 5-for-7 shooting from beyond the arc. Iziane Castro Marques scored a career-high 31 points for the Dream (4-6), who remained one victory from eclipsing last season's total. Chamique Holdsclaw finished with 14 points, shooting 6 for 17 from the floor."

Read more....Box Score

Pitching Stats Through 4^th Inning
	Billingsley	Marquis
PIP	14.0	10.8
%Strikes	64%	70%
Hits	2	1
Walks	1	0
PIP - pitches per inning pitched

Play-By-Play

Picks
1) What Will Be The Result Between Ivo Karlovic and Roger Federer: Federer Wins 3-0 vs. Any Other Result - Any other result
2) How Many Sets Will Be Played Between Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick: 4 sets vs. 3 or 5 sets - 4 sets
3) Washington Nationals hits off Johnson vs. Josh Johnson strikeouts - Nationals hits off Johnson
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays - Tampa Bay
5) IK Start @ Lillestrøm SK - Lillestrøm SK win
6) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
8) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians - Chicago
9) San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - San Francisco
10) Corinthians SP @ Internacional RS - Internacional RS win
11) Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
12) Montreal Alouettes @ Calgary Stampeders - Calgary

Previews

(top) Josh Johnson strikeouts/hits given up; (bottom) Nationals hits off starter/struck out. Nolasco, Bergesen, Cueto, and Cain are the only pitchers to win this prop this month. Johnson has won this prop in 7 of 16 starts, including once against Washington. Click on graph for large version.

3) Well, the graph on the right will do most of the talking here. Josh Johnson has given up fewer hits than struck out batters in 7 of his 16 starts, including once against Washington. He has been on the losing end of this proposition in only 6 of those 16 starts.

Washington, despite being in the bottom half of the Majors in strikeouts per at bat this month, have only been struck out more by the starting pitcher four times. Nolasco, Bergesen, Cain, and Cueto were the culprits. If those guys can do it then certainly Josh Johnson is capable of it. Keep in mind, however, that Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, and Matt Garza are some of the pitchers who could not get more strikeouts. Josh Johnson is striking out batters at a .210 rate and his bat against average is .227 so it should be a close one as his two previous meetings with Washington have been.

5) IK Start appear to be the stronger side this season in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. They have only lost twice on the road despite their -4 goal differential while Lillestrøm SK have only won twice at home even though they have an even goal differential. If you click on the form table, however, you'll see both of Lillestrøm SK's wins at home have been in their most recent home matches while IK Start's away losses have been in their most recent three matches.

From what I could tell there were no incredibly serious injury concerns for either team. You can click on the logos to the left and try your hand at translating Norwegian. The root for injury or hurt is skade, skadet, skader. Aside from the better recent form Lillestrøm SK have a long and rich tradition of beating IK Start at home. The last time they did not win outright was in 1994 with 7 straight victories in the meantime. I think that tradition and that they may be a better team by season's end may be enough to see them come away from this match with the full three points.

A Bleak Look At Cash

And So It Goes....

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