June 10th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)1-3-0 today... had a good run a couple weeks back and have just not been able to see the winners lately. Florida got me my one win of the day, just figured Carpenter couldn't keep up what he'd been doing... though it wouldn't have surprised me to see him throw 7 shutout innings. Poland's goalie was real bad I guess, the translated news I read criticized him harshly, it was a third string or fourth string goalie, just a prospect really and he did not impress. Shelbourne was a man down for most of the 2^nd half, but really that one was not close. Crumlin scored on a penalty kick, without that it was 1 goal scored. Finished with Billingsley... damn, 4 hits in the first inning alone. Top of the order killed him, and having Gwynn back is really helping the Padres' lineup. Too bad for them Young gave up 4 home runs. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Poland Manages Disappointing Draw In Meaningless Game Against Iraq

Poland 1 - 1 Iraq

Poland fielded a number of prospective inclusions to their World Cup qualifying squad.

``One very inaccurate shot by Raphael Murawskiego. One corner and a free kick - both shot off target by Jack Krzynówka. The assessment that the ten day trip to Africa was completely devoid of meaning has not changed, however. Poland did get to preview the eventual composition of their team. Beenhakker, for various reasons (injuries, family) did not to name several key players such as Błaszczykowski, Brożek, Jeleń, Wasilewski, Boruc, M. Lewandowski."

Read more (Polish)....(Translation)Highlights (Poland scores)(Iraq scores)

Crumlin United Nearly Pull Off Shocker, Replay Next Monday At Tolka Park

Crumlin United 1 - 1 Shelbourne

``Trailing to Danny Loughran’s penalty lead, McAllister eased the nerves of ten-man Shels as he volleyed home from the edge of the area on 67 minutes after Crumlin failed to properly clear Derek Doyle’s long throw. Loughran’s lead goal [pictured right] came nine minutes earlier when a swift counterattack caught Shels on the back foot. Racing onto Stephen Larkin’s through ball, striker Tony Griffiths was tugged back by Robbie Hedderman. Referee Paul Tuite duly pointed to the spot and sent off central defender Hedderman for what was his second booking. Loughran scored emphatically from the spot, sending keeper Dean Delaney the wrong way."

Read more....Shelbourne Point Of View

Hermida's First Delivers Win For Marlins

Florida Marlins 4 - 3 St. Louis Cardinals

``He hung a slider a little bit and I was able to get the barrel on it and keep it fair. All I was thinking was, `Ballgame.'"
---Jeremy Hermida on his walk off home run

``Hermida hit a 1-1 pitch from reliever Jason Motte (2-2) into the right-field seats. It came after Matt Lindstrom (2-1) pitched a scoreless ninth for the Marlins, who rallied from an early three-run hole. Carpenter allowed three runs in six innings after having given up three runs in his first six starts combined. His ERA rose from 0.79 to 1.23. Josh Johnson has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts."

Read more....Box Score

Ethier, Kemp, Hudson Go Long To Deliver A Shaky Billingsley The Win

Los Angeles Dodgers 6 - 4 San Diego Padres

Chad Billingsley gave up 4 hits in the first inning alone, but Chris Young gave up four home runs to help L.A. win the game.

``Andre Ethier homered his first two times up, Matt Kemp hit a go-ahead shot, and Orlando Hudson also went deep against Chris Young to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 6-4 victory over the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. Chad Billingsley (8-3) overcame a shaky start to tie Johan Santana, Jason Marquis and Matt Cain for the NL lead in wins. The right-hander threw 117 pitches over 5 2/3 innings, allowing three runs and eight hits."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Australia (v. Bahrain) vs. Japan (v. Qatar) - Japan win margin
2) Sri Lanka vs. West Indies - Sri Lanka
3) Norway @ Netherlands - 2 goals or fewer
4) Alex Rodriguez/Mark Teixeira vs. Kevin Youkilis/Jason Bay - Youkilis/Bay record more total bases
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets - New York
7) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros - Chicago
8) Chivas USA @ Houston Dynamo - Chivas USA win or draw
9) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
10) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - 5 runs or more
11) Result Of Adrian Gonzalez's 3^rd Plate Appearance: Hit/Walk vs. Other - Hit/Walk

Previews
1) First off it might be helpful to look at the World Cup Qualifying results for Australia and Japan's group thus far. Then a glance at an in-depth preview of Australia's match with Bahrain and Japan's match with Qatar should provide some additional insight. Here's a spoiler, goal.com predicts a 2-0 win for Australia and a 3-0 win for Japan.

Japan and Australia seek to maintain their good form after having qualified for the World Cup.

Australia Injury News

``Veteran centre-back Craig Moore headlines a list of some big-name injury victims for the Socceroos, with the former Newcastle United man having been recently diagnosed with testicular cancer. He is joined on the sidelines by first-choice duo Brett Emerton and Vince Grella, who both picked up injuries whilst on duty with English Premier League club Blackburn Rovers. Celtic striker Scott McDonald and FC Nurnberg defender Matthew Spiranovic have similarly been ruled out through injury, as has Newcastle Jets man Mark Milligan, who was called into the squad to replace Moore.

Japan Injury News

``Japan will be without suspended Wolfsburg midfielder Makoto Hasebe, red carded late in the game in Tashkent though Okada does not appear to have any new selection headaches."

West Indies may have to do without captain Chris Gayle in this near meaningless match.

2)

Sri Lanka and West Indies are simply trying to maintain their momentum after disposing of Australia to advance to the Super Eight.

As always the CricInfo faithful have put together a terrific preview of the match. They note that Sri Lanka are a top heavy batting side so that if Taylor and Edwards (West Indies bowlers) can get some early wickets it will put a major dent in Sri Lanka's game. Chris Gayle is considered to be a serious doubt for the match, but from his comments it seems he would like to play so long as the swelling in his knee has gone down. Without Gayle the West Indies side have less talent, but still some competent batsmen who could put in a good showing. Sri Lanka's bowlers will make it difficult for West Indies in any case, with or without Gayle. SkyBet has Sri Lanka favored at 4/7 to 11/8 for West Indies. In terms of money lines that would put Sri Lanka at -175 and West Indies at +135.

"I'm carrying a bit of an injury so I don't know if I'm playing [against Sri Lanka]. After batting [against Australia] I didn't feel it, but the next day I couldn't walk properly. It had swollen and bruised a lot. I'm trying to get back into stride."
---West Indies captain Chris Gayle whose 88 runs from 50 helped defeat Australia

3) The Netherlands booked their place to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa on June 6^th with a 2-1 victory away at Iceland. Norway sit four points off of second place Scotland with four matches remaining and a game in hand. They are not eliminated at this point, but considering they have earned only three points from four matches their position is not good.

The Netherlands are the first European side to have qualified for the World Cup.

Looking at the World Cup qualifying results for their group one can see Netherlands have been fairly dominant at home, defeating Iceland 2-0, Scotland 3-0 and Macedonia 4-0. Away, Norway has been good but not good enough with two 0-0 draws against Macedonia and Scotland. Netherlands have had 16 goals scored in their 6 matches, 14 for and 2 against, scoring just over 2¹/₃ goals per match. Norway have had 5 goals scored in 4 matches, 3 for and 4 against, scoring ³/₄ goals per match. So in terms of goals scored they combine for just over 3 goals per match, but in terms of goals against allow just over 1 goal per match combined. Goal.com carries a preview of the match and predict a 1-1 draw to be the final result. They note the Netherlands will be fielding some young prospective inclusions to their World Cup squad. They also note the Norwegians play a disciplined defensive style of football. Considering Nederlans will be fielding a weaker side than while they were qualifying and that the reverse fixture in Norway ended as a 1-0 victory for Netherlands I like 2 goals or fewer to be scored in this match.

6) The Phillies dropped the first game of their series at Citi Field to the Mets thanks to some power hitting by Beltran, Wright, and Church cutting the Phillies' lead in the NL East to 2 games. New York will hope to cut into that lead even further with Mike Pelfrey on the mound, who has two wins against the Phillies already this season. The first was a 7-4 win at Citizens Bank Park on May 1^st with Delgado out of the lineup and Reyes going 0-for-4.

"For the past two years, they've been choke artists. That's kind of what we believed, and I think we're always going to believe that until they prove us wrong."
---Cole Hamels on New York radio station WFAN last December

The second was on May 7^th, a 7-5 win at Citi Field, with Reyes and Delgado both contributing significantly. Pelfrey struck out exactly zero batters in each game, but only gave up a total of 6 earned runs from 15 hits. Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park were the losing pitchers for the Phillies.

The Mets will not have the assistance of Reyes or Delgado in this game and will be facing a higher caliber of pitcher in Cole Hamels tonight. Hamels is coming off a complete game shutout of the Dodgers in L.A. It will be his first game pitching against the Mets this season who, without Delgado and Reyes, are batting .259 with a .459 slugging average over their careers against the young left hander.

The New York Mets, without Delgado or Reyes, will hope Pelfrey can secure a third straight victory over their division leading rivals.

Hamels is a terrific strikeout pitcher and his 5.5 K/BB ratio is one of the tops in the Majors, but he does give up his fair share of home runs with 10 already this season. Pelfrey, with a 1.22 ground ball to fly ball ratio, has given up only 4 this season in 2 more innings pitched. Pelfrey had his worst start of the season against the Pirates 5 days ago, giving up 8 earned runs in just 3²/₃ innings pitched, but I expect he will do much better in tonight's game. One factor that will definitely favor Philadelphia is their strong bullpen and the use of Madson as their closer over Brad Lidge, who is worst in the bullpen in terms of ERA. With Madson I think the Phillies faithful can breathe a little easier and he should be able to hold on to any lead he inherits, but with Hamels and Pelfrey likely to do worse and better, respectively, than in their previous starts and the Mets being at home I favor New York to win this game ever so slightly.

11) The venn diagram above shows results for Adrian Gonzalez's last 51 plate appearances. 29 of those 51 plate appearances have resulted in a hit or a walk, and 19 of 51 have been with a runner in scoring position (RISP). Of those 19 plate appearances Gonzalez has walked 13 times (68% of the time). He has reached base with a hit or a walk in 19 of 28 plate appearances occuring in the 5^th inning of a game or later as well. Simply put, he will most likely be walked if there is a runner in scoring position in the latter half of the game, especially if the score is close. His batting average is only .241 in those 11 games, so a walk would be his most likely means of reaching base.

Against Clayton Kershaw he has not done well at all, batting .167 in 12 at bats with a .286 on base percentage. That includes such 'other results' as hitting into fielder's choice or being hit by a pitch so he has hit or walked against Kershaw in less than 28.6% of his plate appearances. I have hit or walk as the pick here because he has been so good at taking walks, and by his third plate appearance should be facing Kershaw near the end of his pitch count. I think Gonzalez is well overdue to hit a home run and his position in the order with Gwynn especially in front of him means he is fairly likely to bat with a runner in scoring position.

June 9th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)And right back into it with a 1-2-0 day and my baseball picks being perfectly wrong. That will change. Took the White Sox to start off, errors, balks, and walks doomed them. Then Texas for a win, and ended with the Diamondbacks' weak lineup not being able to keep up with San Diego with Reynolds and Upton out of the lineup. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Fucking Tigers Win Fucking Game, South Siders Slide Off Pace Of Detroit

Detroit Tigers 5 - 4 Chicago White Sox

``If this was the 1980s, [none] of these guys would be in the big leagues right now, because if you hit .210-.230 and you can't execute, I don't think you should be out here. When you can't bunt, hit-and-run, squeeze and move the guy over, you better hit 40 home runs and drive in 140."
---White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen

The White Sox committed three errors and Richard walked in a run in this one.

``Miguel Cabrera opened the ninth by reaching on third baseman Josh Fields' error. Marcus Thames followed with an infield single off shortstop Alexei Ramirez's glove. Inge then grounded a single into left field off Scott Linebrink (2-3), scoring pinch-runner Josh Anderson from second base. Chicago starter Clayton Richard lost his control in the fifth with two outs. Magglio Ordonez singled before Richard walked three straight batters, including Inge to force in a run, and put Detroit ahead 3-1."

Read more....Box Score

Texas Longhorns Advance To College World Series

Texas Longhorns 5 - 2 TCU Horned Frogs

``Freshman Taylor Jungmann allowed two hits over six innings Monday night and top-seeded Texas earned its first trip to the College World Series since 2005 with a 5-2 win over TCU. Jungmann got himself out of his only jam in the sixth inning. A single and hit batter put two runners on with no outs. But Jungmann got the next two hitters to ground right back to the mound. The first he threw to third for the first out of the inning. The second started a double play that ended it. TCU finally scored in the top of the eighth. Pinch hitter Hunt Woodruff doubled and scored on Coret Steglich's single to center. The Horned Frogs added another in the ninth when Matt Vern tripled off Wood and scored on Bryan Holaday's single that sent Wood to the bench. Ruffin replaced Wood with one out in the ninth and picked up his second save."

Read more....TCU's RecapBox Score

Peavy Recovers From 1 Inning Start To Lead Padres To Victory; Kouzmanoff Wasn't Bad Neither

San Diego Padres 6 - 3 Arizona Diamondbacks

Peavy was the better pitcher here, striking out 8 and walking 1, while Garland walked 5 and struck out 1.

``Kevin Kouzmanoff tied his career-high with four RBIs and Jake Peavy bounced back from the shortest start of his career to lead the San Diego Padres to a 6-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night. Peavy (6-6), bothered recently by tendinitis in his right ankle, appeared to be limping as he walked to the dugout after the top of the seventh inning and after laying down a sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the fifth. Kouzmanoff chased Garland when his two-out double in the seventh dropped in just beyond the glove of Eric Byrnes, who was trying to run it down in left-center. Gwynn was aboard on a walk and Gonzalez had been intentionally walked ahead of Kouzmanoff."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Poland vs. Iraq - Poland win
2) Shelbourne @ Crumlin United - 3 goals or more
3) Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever - Seattle
4) Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals - Cincinnati
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins - Florida
6) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox - Boston
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Pittsburgh
8) Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
9) Which Quarter Will See More Points: 1^st quarter vs. 2^nd quarter - 1^st quarter
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic - Orlando
11) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
12) San Diego Padres total hits vs. Chad Billingsley strikeouts - Billingsley strikeouts

Picks
2) Crumlin United currently lie in 7^th place of Division 1A (the 2^nd tier) of the Northern Amateur League._link They are 16 points off promotion to the Premier of the NAL and realistically will not be promoted this season. That means their best chance of success lies in the national Cup tournaments. They already won the FAI Umbro Intermediate Challenge Cup, the 2^nd tier cup to the FAI Ford Senior Challenge Cup which today's match is involved in. Their homepage is absent of any news regarding this match, but that is most likely due to a part-time webmaster than a nonchalant attitude towards the match.

Shelsbourne have more pressing concerns, such as promotion into the Irish Premier.

Crumlin, winners of the FAI Intermediate Cup, will not be promoted to the Premier of the Northern Amateur League and are focused on today's match.

The players of Shelbourne know Crumlin will be up for this match.

There is no injury news for Crumlin United, so I assume they will put out their strongest side, while Shelbourne have three first team injuries to contend with. Defender Damien Brennan and midfielders Richie Baker and Mark O'Brien are all likely to miss out for this match. Looking at their respective league tables one sees Crumlin has played 28 matches and there have been a total of 100 goals scored in them. Shelbourne have played 13 matches with only 28 goals scored in total. Because Shelbourne are a professional side while Crumlin are an intermediate club Shelbourne are overwhelming favorites at 2/9 compared to 11/1 for Crumlin at some books. Crumlin may take an all-out defensive approach to this game, though their attack has proven effective against more senior clubs than themselves at earlier stages of this competition. Even if Crumlin play defensively it may not be enough to keep Shelbourne out of the goal, but I can certainly see the game being played to a low score and am just hoping Crumlin can scratch a goal out.

"When you play junior or intermediate clubs in the cup you know that the minimum you will get is a battle. Their focus will be totally on this game and we have to match them."
---Shelbourne defender Kevin Doherty

San Diego Padres' Total Hits Minus Opposing Starters' Strikeouts

The Padres generally have more hits than batters struck out by the opposing team's starter, but have failed to do so twice against Billingsley this season.

12) The San Diego Padres visit Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. Los Angeles are 22-8 at Dodger Stadium this season, leading the Majors in home winning percentage. San Diego has not had much luck there themselves, being swept in a 3 game series earlier this season. In those three games they had 4, 3, and 6 total hits, well below their season average of 7.9 hits per game. In their other four games against the Dodgers, in San Diego, they had 5, 6, 3, and 7 hits. Looking at the graph above one can see Chad Billingsley had more strikeouts than the Padres had hits both times he started against them this season. Obviously, the Dodgers' starting pitching is solid, but it's their bullpen that has kept teams down. Over 199 innings they have given up a total of 176 hits, or 0.88 per inning.

Proportion of Padres' games with 'N' hits or less. Notice they have 7 or fewer runs in 50.9% of their games.

With Billiingsley giving up 0.78 hits per inning himself the Padres can't expect to get much relief from the Dodgers' relievers.

To the right we have a graph showing the proportion of Padres games where San Diego gets 'N' hits or fewer. One can see they have gotten 7 hits or fewer in 50.9% of their games. With Billingsley averaging 7.3 strikeouts through 12 starts this season he would appear to have a 50/50 chance of at least tying the Padres' total hits in this game. I favor Billingsley to get more strikeouts in Dodger Stadium, however, where the Padres have averaged 4.3 hits per game this season.

June 8th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)2-1-0 today with my blog picks breaking out of a slump. Congratulations to Roger Federer on his 14^th career Grand Slam. By dominating the first set, intimidating Soderling, and holding serve 100% of the time you have become a legend and ended my streak, haha! That's fine, the Cubs paid off by winning in the 14^th inning, then the Phillies romping to a 7-2 win behind three home runs. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Federer Takes 14^th Grand Slam Title, First At Roland Garros

R. Federer def. R. Soderling 6-1 7⁷-6¹ 6-4

Roger Federer won nearly 90% of his first serves and intimidated Soderling whose second serves were nearly 12mph slower than in his semifinal against Gonzalez.

``The tennis gods brewed up a storm around Roland Garros on Sunday afternoon as they prepared to welcome a new member into their midst. Roger Federer repelled the rain, thunder, and a certain Robin Soderling to take his rightful place among the immortals of the game. The Swiss produced a near-flawless display, delighting his fans with the full range of shots that have made him arguably the greatest player of his era, to sweep aside Robin Soderling 6-1 7-6(1) 6-4 and seal his first-ever French Open title. The triumph enabled Federer to become only the sixth man in history to win all four Grand Slam tournaments, and also saw him equal Pete Sampras’ record of 14 majors."

Read more....Box ScoreThe Significance Of Federer's Win Today

Cubs Soar Over Reds Behind Soriano's Extra Innings Home Run, Wells Remains Winless

Chicago Cubs 6 - 3 Cincinnati Reds (in 14)

"I had a tough three weeks, but I haven't lost confidence, I am just trying to stay healthy and play hard. I made a good swing and hit the ball hard."
---Cubs left fielder Alfonso Soriano on his 14^th inning blast

Randy Wells was robbed of a victory as Marmol and Heilmann could not hold off the Reds, but Soriano, and the rest of the order made sure the Cubs did not go down.

``Soriano led off the 14th inning with a home run and the Cubs beat the Cincinnati Reds 6-3 on Sunday to win their weekend series. Soriano hit Mike Lincoln's first pitch into the seats in right-center for his 14th homer. He was 0-for-5 before the clutch drive and 10-for-64 (.156) in his previous 15 games."

Read more....Box Score

Ruiz, Victorino, Howard Combine For Three Home Runs As Phillies Win Big

Philadelphia Phillies 7 - 2 Los Angeles Dodgers

Brad Lidge was not needed in this game to the relief of Phillies fans. Rollins also batted .500 from the 6 spot.

``Ruiz and Victorino homered against Randy Wolf (3-2). The left-hander, who pitched for the Phillies from 1999-06, gave up six runs and eight hits in 6 1-3 innings and has a 5.61 ERA over his last four outings. The loss was his first in 12 starts since April 7, when the Padres beat him 4-2 at San Diego in his season debut. Rollins, who came in batting .219 and was hitless in his previous 14 at-bats with runners in scoring position, was 2 for 4 with an opposite-field single that helped build a run in the second inning."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Australia vs. Sri Lanka - Sri Lanka
2) Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
3) TCU @ Texas - Texas
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - Tampa Bay
5) Los Angeles Spark @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
6) Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers - Texas
7) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - Arizona

Previews
1) Australia come into this match in the ICC World Twenty20 tournament on the verge of being bounced after a

(close)
Gayle terrorizes
WIND 172-169 AUS w25br

disastrous defeat at the hands of Chris Gayle (88 from 50) and West Indies. Their -2.41 net run rate from the match mean they will need to defeat Sri Lanka soundly to advance to the Super Eight stage of the tournament with a loss all but assuring their first round exit.

"It was a bit down yesterday because we suffered a defeat but I know once we have a team meeting and reassess our goals all the boys will be very very positive. We're a very tight knit group."
---Australia batsman David Hussey on their recent defeat to West Indies

That defeat came on the heels of the news that Andrew Symonds had been dismissed from Australia's squad after violating his contract with the team barring him from drinking in public. Australia are still trying to recover from the loss of one of their best mid-order batsmen in a short play Twenty20 format that makes it difficult to do so. David Hussey and captain Rick Ponting believe they can do so, though they recognize the challenges Sri Lanka poses.

Sri Lanka can dismiss Australia from the tournament with a victory today.

For his part Sri Lankan captain Kumar Sangakkara believes his side are loaded with enough talent to depose the Australians. ``There is [Nuwan] Kulasekera, who is no. 1 in the world, Murali, Ajantha [Mendis], Thilan Thushara and Lasith Malinga who has come back so strongly. It's a great mix but at the end of the day it doesn't matter what you have, you've got to walk the walk basically to really get on the field and perform well,". Sangakkara also thinks their batting has the ability to perform in Twenty20 matches though it has been their batting which has been a concern leading up to this tournament.

The fellows over at CricInfo have put together a nice preview of this match, noting the must-win nature of it for the Australians and Sri Lanka knowing a victory will book their place with the Super Eight. They also note Australia defeated Sri Lanka in their only previous Twenty20 encounter, in September of 2007, by 10 wickets with 58 balls remaining and that Australia are on a 4 game losing streak in the format, their worst ever. Oddsmakers have Australia as the favorites, despite the loss of Symonds and Brett Lee's expensive bowling in their last match, at 8/13 (-160) with Sri Lanka receiving odds at 5/4 (+125).

Andrew Symonds has been banned from Cricket Australia following his public drinking violation. The mid-order batsman's loss is a serious blow to Australia.

2) The Chicago White Sox host the Detroit Tigers in a doubleheader today, the first game of which is a makeup for a rained out game earlier this season. Detroit currently leads the AL Central by 4¹/₂ games and with this 5 game series at U.S. Cellular the White Sox could take the division lead with a sweep. Chicago will be depending on an aura of success against the Tigers at the Cell and the pitching of Clayton Richard, whose spot as 5^th starter is in jeopardy after giving up 3 home runs in a losing effort against Oakland and with Jose Contreras returning to the team. Richard has a 3.97 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his five previous starts after being moved from his role as a relief pitcher when Contreras was sent down. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.00 and has been even higher over the other half of his short career and considering he gave up a total of 5 home runs in 127²/₃ innings last year in the minors, I don't see Detroit going for more than one long ball in today's game, though the return of Marcus Thames to the lineup could force me to eat those words. Detroit is also batting .227 in their past three games with a .309 slugging average, just 1.36 total bases per hit when they have averaged 1.56 over the course of the season.

The White Sox look to make up ground on Detroit in their doubleheader today.

Detroit will start Armando Galarraga who, after enduring a rocky start to the season, has been much improved. In his last start, against the Red Sox, Galarraga pitched for 7 innings, giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs though he only struck out two batters while walking two. Galarraga has two starts against the White Sox this season, one in Detroit and the other at the Cell. At Detroit he verily shut down the South Siders, giving up zero earned runs from 4 hits over 6¹/₃ innings, but in Chicago he was bombed for 6 earned runs from 6 hits, including two homers, in just 6 innings of play.

The Tigers will need Galarraga at his best to defeat Chicago at U.S. Cellular where they have gone 6-13 over the past two seasons and the beginning of this one. The White Sox have been batting terribly at their home park recently, with a .167 and .267 batting and slugging average, respectively, in their past three games. Those numbers are low enough to almost expect a break out performance by the Sox. The White Sox have a stronger bullpen than the Tigers so if Galarraga goes out behind after 6 innings I think the White Sox can hold on for a win.

4) Andy Sonnanstine was a decent pitcher last season with a 4.38 ERA over 193¹/₃ innings. This season has been a bit of a different story as he struggled out of the gate. Although he's coming off a quality start against Kansas City his ERA for the season is at 7.07 along with a 1.68 WHIP. Those are the kinds of numbers that will take a pitcher out of the starting rotation. Surprisingly, it's been a couple of starts against the Yankees that have kept his numbers at a barely acceptable level.

"I've been talking to Ken Ravizza a little bit, and he's really been helping me out, just kind of, 'Next pitch, next pitch.' If something bad happens in the field, let it go. Don't let it kind of build up into a big inning. I've had three starts where it's really built up and gotten out of my control. I'm looking to stay aggressive."
---Tampa Bay starting pitcher Andy Sonnanstine

Sonnanstine has pitched 12¹/₃ innings against New York, over half of them at Yankee Stadium, and has a 2.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP out of it. His performance at Yankee Stadium is especially surprising considering he has a 10.87 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in his other 6 road starts this season. So which will win out today, Sonnanstines success against New York's batting order, or his overall ineffectiveness on the road this season? Well, over 134 at bats the Yankees' roster is batting .246 with a .433 slugging average against Sonnanstine, so perhaps he'll find a less than desirable medium today, giving up 3 or 4 runs on 8 or 9 hits. Tampa Bay have to be slightly buoyed at least by the fact they are 5-2 in Sonnanstine's last 7 starts.

Tampa Bay has also batted decently, but not great for them, in their last three games with a .235 batting average and .398 slugging average en route to scoring 15 runs. Over their careers the Rays' batters have a pretty solid .270 batting average against Pettite who is coming off a poor start against Texas where he gave up 4 earned runs and walked 6 batters in 5 innings. It was his first start since complaining of back pains in a previous start against Cleveland and it appeared to be a distraction for him against the Rangers. Pettite will have to hope he's not feeling the pain today at Yankees Stadium, where he has recorded a 5.79 ERA in 6 starts, compared to his 4.33 ERA overall this season. In his lone home start against Tampa Bay this season he gave up 5 earned runs from 9 hits over 6 innings, which is pretty good considering he was hit for 4 home runs.

Andy Sonnanstine needs another good outing against the Yankees to avoid a stint in the minors.

Pettite can rest a little easier knowing he'll have Alex Rodriguez providing some run support in this game, however. New York is 20-8 since Rodriguez returned to the lineup form hip surgery during the off season. Rodriguez is batting .275 with 8 home runs and 23 RBIs in those games and the Yankees slugger is improving every day which will make Sonnanstine's job all the more difficult. Neither club's bullpen has been particularly strong this season, each posting ERA's of over 4.00 and each giving up home runs at higher than the league average which is just below 1 home run every 9 innings. With Sonnanstine and Pettite both likely to give up several runs today and with the bullpens particularly susceptible to giving up runs to high powered offenses such as will be on the field today it seems this will come down to who can hit a home run behind the most base runners. I favor Tampa Bay by the slightest of margins with Sonnanstine being successful against the Yankees this season and Pettite having his troubles against the Rays.

7) Jon Garland and Jake Peavy will both be counted on to pitch deep into this game after the two teams depleted their bullpens in a behemoth 18 inning game yesterday which the Diamondbacks won 9-6 off a Mark Reynolds home run. The prospects of each pitcher doing so seem pretty good, considering they each went 7 innings the last time they faced off on May 6^th. Garland got the upper hand in that one as he pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing only 3 hits by the Padres. Peavy allowed only 4 hits in 7 innings, but gave up a 2 run homer to Justin Upton who added another run with a homer off of reliever Duaner Sanchez. The two starters may be needed to pitch even further in this game, however.

The Diamondbacks face an ailing Jake Peavy who will be needed to pitch deep after their 18 inning marathon yesterday.

Garland has been up and down and all around this season, recording gems such as his game against the Padres, as well as downright awful starts such as this 2²/₃ inning mugging by the Braves in which he gave up 8 earned runs. Garland has been working on his mechanics, however, and presumably it's showing results based on his last start, against the Dodgers, who he held to 1 earned run from 4 hits over 6 innings. It remains to be seen whether he was just having a good game or if his work off the field will lead to a string of quality starts.

Jake Peavy has been battling a viral infection as well as tendonitis in his ankle. Both factors played a role in the shortest outing of his career, a 1 inning effort against Philadelphia giving up 4 earned runs and walking two batters. Padres' manager Bud Black has said Peavy is fully recovered but amended his comments on Saturday to say there were some slight issues with his ankles. I think it's safe to say Peavy will be recovered enough to avoid an outing like he had against the Phillies.

``Last game, I think I gave up on myself. It wasn't there, and I didn't dig deep enough and go find it. I pretty much made up my mind from right after that game that it wouldn't happen to me again the rest of my career."
---Arizona starting pitcher Jon Garland

As for the offenses the Diamondbacks and Padres are in different spots at the moment. Arizona is batting .272 and slugging .419 in this series even through 8 innings of scoreless baseball yesterday. The Padres are batting .187 and slugging .276 in the three games. Overall this season the Diamondbacks have been the better offensively so while they are facing Peavy they still should be able to generate one or two runs of offense. Considering the Padres' lack of offense for long stretches it would not be surprising to see them struggle against Garland who, recall, shut them out for 7 innings a month ago. Adrian Gonzalez may break out of his slump, but with Hairston on the disabled list they will surely need Kouzmanoff or Gwynn to also step up.

June 7th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)The losing continued for a bit when Kuznetsova wiped away Safina without a second thought and Azerbaijan failed to hold Wales scoreless, no surprise they failed to score themselves though. Then got back on track with the Mariners and Red Wings, the first being a close one and the latter being a nice little blowout. And so on to the picks.

Recaps

Kuznetsova Powers Past Safina For Her 2^nd Grand Slam Title 6-4 6-2

``I came out there and said, ‘Everything's great, I'm just doing my thing I love. I'm enjoying. It's my passion, what I'm doing. It's my job. And I cannot ask for more.”
-- 2009 French Open Champion Svetlana Kuznetsova

``It was the pressure I put on myself because I really wanted to win. I just didn't handle it, I was a little bit desperate on the court, and didn't do the things that I had to do. Didn't stay tough mentally.”
-- 2009 French Open runner up Dinara Safina

An impressive performance by Svetlana Kuznetsova lands her the title at Roland Garros.

``For Svetlana Kuznetsova, a career which promised so much when she won the US Open at the age of 19 only to stutter ever since is now definitively back on track. Dinara Safina meanwhile will go back to being known as “Marat’s little sister” and “No. 1 without winning a Slam” until she can silence her critics – and more importantly the doubting voices inside her own head – and finally prove her worth in the final of a Major."

Read more....Box ScoreThoughts From The Players...

Red Dragons World Cup Hopes Linger With Victory At Baku

Wales 1 - 0 Azerbaijan

Although they will require some cooperation from Germany and Russia to qualify for the World Cup Wales are still in contention with a win today.

``Wolves' Dave Edwards' second international goal was enough for a young and depleted Wales side to secure a narrow World Cup qualifying win in Baku. The Wolves midfielder made the most of panic in the box three minutes before the break to fire into an empty net. He was free to strike as the Azerbaijan defence failed to deal with Robert Earnshaw's right-wing cross. From then on he and his team-mates battled for every inch to produce a victory. There were only 79 Wales fans in this stadium and, having had their tickets given to them free by the Football Association of Wales, they must have loved every minute."

Read more from BBC....Read more from Observer...Box Score

RBI Doubles By Griffey, Ichiro Enough To Stop Twins

Seattle Mariners 2 - 1 Minnesota Twins

``A day after his club-record 27-game hitting streak ended, Suzuki went 3 for 4 against the Twins, including a two-out RBI double in the fifth that tied it at 1. Suzuki also sparked Seattle's winning rally in the eighth, chopping a leadoff single over the head of left hander Sean Henn. Russell Branyan struck out and Adrian Beltre popped up before Ken Griffey Jr. came up with his tiebreaking hit. Griffey drove in Ichiro Suzuki with a two-out double in the eighth inning and the Seattle Mariners edged the Minnesota Twins 2-1 on Saturday."

Read more....Box Score

Wings 2nd Line, Osgood, Step Up To Blank Pens, Take 3-2 Series Lead

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Wow, a true manhandling of Pittsburgh by a veteran Detroit team. Their power play was unstoppable.

``After watching their two-game lead in the Stanley Cup finals disappear in Pittsburgh, the defending champions returned to the friendly confines of Joe Louis Arena and blew away the supposedly fresher Penguins 5-0 in Game 5 on Saturday night. Chris Osgood, on the verge of his fourth Stanley Cup championship -- third as the Red Wings starting goalie -- made 22 saves for his 15^th playoff shutout. He earned an assist on Valtteri Filppula's goal for his fifth career playoff point, and improved to 11-4 in the finals."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling - 4 or 5 sets played
2) Ian Poulter vs. Charley Hoffman - Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
3) East Carolina vs. North Carolina - North Carolina
4) Elche C.F. @ Levante U.D. - Elche C.F. win or draw
5) Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds - Chicago
6) Tiger Woods' Finish At The Memorial: Tied for 3^rd or better vs. 4^th or worse - T-3 or better
7) Tony Stewart vs. Jeff Gordon - Stewart has a better finishing position
8) Virginia @ Ole Miss - Virginia
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
10) Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
11) San Francisco Giants @ Florida Marlins - Florida
12) Southern Miss @ Florida - Southern Miss
13) Dwight Howard vs. Pau Gasol - Gasol pts.
14) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia
15) Clemson @ Arizona State - Arizona State

Previews
1) Well, the final match of Roland Garros 2009 is here, featuring 13 time Grand Slam winner Roger Federer against first time Grand Slam finalist Robin Soderling. A win today would see Federer tie Pete Sampras' all-time record with 14 Grand Slam titles, and would make him the first since Andre Agassi in 1999 to win all four Grand Slam titles and on four different surfaces no less. Soderling has never advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam tournament before this year's French Open so his success has been an incredible storyline and a win today would be an incredible achievement and step forward in his career.

Robin Soderling's serve will surely make Federer hang his head at times, but in the end it will be Roger's yell bouncing off the walls at Roland Garros.

Federer is an impressive 9-0 against Soderling over their careers, and has lost just one set to him in those 9 matches, back in 2005 on grass. Federer was also 5-0 against Juan Martin del Potro and had never lost a set to him, but despite that del Potro took Federer to 5 sets. Tommy Haas also took him to 5 sets, while Jose Acasuso and Paul Henri-Mathieu each took him to 4 sets. Against those three he was 14-2 all time and had previously dropped a total of 9 out of 40 (22.5%) sets played against them before dropping 4 out of 13 (30.8%) in this tournament. All told Federer has won 2 of his 6 matches in straight sets while Soderling has won 3 of his 6 matches in straight sets. Both players would seem to have struggled enough against lesser players than one another to be defeated in straight sets, and yet that would be a mutually exclusive event leaving a win for one or the other in 4 or 5 sets as the only choice left over. There are a great number of previews

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ATP Tour
Roland Garros
ESPN
KC Star
Reuters
AP
Comcast
Forbes

being written on this match, so I encourage you to read them. Most 'experts' agree this will be a highly competitive match, with Federer holding the advantage in overall skill and variety of shots, and Soderling having a power advantage as well as having less pressure stacked on his shoulders.

||←←¦¦ΞΞ==----Watch The Match Live Right Here----==ΞΞ¦¦→→||

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Levante Unión Deportiva will miss the services of top goal scorer Geijo (10) in today's match with Elche C.F.

4)

Elche C.F. make the trip to Valencia to avenge their January 2-0 defeat at home to Levante.

Levante Unión Deportiva will host Elche C.F. today at Ciudad de Valenica with nothing but pride and that winning feeling on the line. With only 9 points left available this season both clubs sit within the safety zone and well off of promotion. A quick look at the Segunda Liga tables shows Levante (8^th) 6 points above Elche (11^th) despite having a -2 goal differential on the season compared to Elche's +7 differential. At home Levante has a +10 differential and 11-3-5 (W-D-L) record while Elche's differential is 0 with a 5-7-7 record on the road. As for their recent form Elche C.F. has been quite good on the road, defeating Rayo Vallecano (5^th) and drawing against Cordoba (15^th) and U.D. Salamanca (7^th) in their last three away matches. Levante has not been quite as good, defeating Rayo Vallecano and Alicante (20^th), but losing to U.D. Salamanca in their last 3 home matches.

Levante face a few injury concerns though Rubén Suárez, tied for top goal scorer this season, is thankfully not among them after picking up a slight knock earlier in the week. Levante will be without forwards Alvaro del Moral and Geijo, as well as defender Robusté with Manolo Reina a major doubt. Geijo will be a big loss for the team as he is their other top goal scorer and scored their only non-penalty goal in their away match against Elche in January, which they won, 2-0. Elche C.F.'s homepage is down at the moment so news is difficult to come by for them, but I can only assume they have most of the side they have had which has led them to win or draw their past three away matches against teams higher up on the tables than Levante. Based on their recent form and Levante's less than intimidating goal differential at home I would favor Elche C.F. to come away with a draw in this match if not win it outright. So long as they do not have a man sent off mid-way through the second half that is.

13) The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a 100-75 win over the Orlando Magic in Game 1 of their NBA Finals series and could take a commanding 2-0 lead tonight with another strong performance.

(left) Gasol knows he's money with his mid-range jumper; (center) Howard is blinded by Gasol on a shot attempt; (right) Howard attempts to drive through Andrew Bynum.

The biggest doubt for the Lakers in that respect is whether they can maintain their defensive intensity to such a high level and whether the Orlando Magic will continue to cooperate. Orlando shot 29.9% from the field in Game 1 and only 34.8% from three point range. The Lakers are a good defensive team, one of the best in the league, but clearly Orlando was also a little off on their shooting to score only 75 points. A big question then is what adjustments will Stan Van Gundy make offensively to remedy that situation. I'm not an NBA coach but I'm guessing one strategy he will employ is to try and take higher percentage shots. In other words, Orlando will be trying to pound the ball in the middle, will try and run screen and rolls, and will try and run trailer plays, all designed to get open layups and dunks. That would certainly seem to imply Howard will make more than one field goal and score more than 12 points. As for the Lakers, having won by 25 points they are more likely to continue doing what they have been doing, and that's get Andrew Bynum involved in the game, let Kobe take over at times, and play solid inside out offense to get open shots from any distance.

Looking at the graph below it's difficult to see where either player has much of an advantage. Howard has scored more points in a single game this year, on the road no less, than Pau Gasol has scored in any game at home. Howard is also averaging 18 points in three games against the Lakers, while Gasol is averaging only 13 points in those games. Gasol did outscore Howard 16-12 in Game one of this series, however, and Howard has scored fewer than 15 points in 16 of 48 road games (33.3%) this year so it wasn't an exceptionally poor game for the big man. Gasol, on the other hand, has scored fewer than 15 points in only 11 of 51 (21.6%) home games this year. Howard has a much bigger problem with getting into foul trouble, and has less range on his shot than Pau Gasol who is deadly to at least 12 feet out. I think Howard is more than capable of blowing up for 30 plus points in Game 2, but I also think the Lakers are capable of locking down on him defensively, fouling him hard to make him work for points at the line, and frustrating him in general by exaggerating contact and drawing offensive fouls on him. I think it will be extremely close, but in the end Gasol outscores Howard in this game, something like 18 points to 17 points.

Howard has averaged 18 points in three games against L.A. this year compared to 13 points for Gasol, though Pau did outscore Superman 16 to 12 in Game 1.

June 6th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)Fuckin' ugly day, going 0-3-1 with Gonzalez teasing with a comeback only to drop 5 straight games to lose the match, Arkansas game being suspended so even though they won 9-2 eventually I got a push only, Kansas City falling hard for their 8th straight loss, and Ichiro Suzuki having zero success against Liriano.

Today's a little bare bones, but tomorrow will be meatier and with some projects finishing the picks will improve.

Recaps

Soderling Advances To His First Grand Slam Final Over Gonzalez In 5 Sets

6-3 7-5 5-7 4-6 6-4

``In the fourth set, the 28-year-old Gonzalez blew his top in the ninth game over a questionable line call. After a Soderling groundstroke fell close to the line with the Chilean serving, Gonzalez battled with both the chair umpire and the lineperson, indicating that the latter was pointing to the wrong mark. After losing the battle, he sat down on the clay and wiped out the mark with his backside, possibly an Open Era first. But instead of completely losing his cool, grew even more motivated Gonzalez managed to hold to 5-4 and then broke the Swede to win the set when Soderling hit a forehand wide."

Overall Soderling outplayed Gonzalez and you can see some evidence of that in their serve statistics, especially their second serve speed. Soderling was confident enough to remain aggressive on his while Gonzalez pulled back.
Read more....Serve Stats Box Score

Arkansas One Game Away From College World Series

Arkansas Razorbacks 9 - 2 Florida State Seminoles

Rather bogus turn of events here as anyone who picked Arkansas got a push rather than a win, with the rain delays forcing the game on into the evening.

``A patient Arkansas squad took the game's largest lead in the top of the seventh inning when it scored three runs on no hits. A leadoff walk to Andy Wilkins was followed by another walk and then a hit batter, loading the bases with no outs. Brett Eibner followed with another walk to bring in Wilkins and James McCann's sacrifice fly to deep right-center field scored Bigham. Arkansas' third came across on a finely executed safety squeeze by Collin Kuhn, making it a 5-2 game. The Hogs tacked on two additional runs in the eighth to make it a 7-2 game capitalizing this time on three Florida State errors."

Read more....Box Score

Greinke Gets Bombed, Gives Up 6 Earned Runs In First 3 Innings

Toronto Blue Jays 9 - 3 Kansas City Royals

Greinke's streak of innings without a home run came to a crashing halt today.

``Seeking to join Toronto's Roy Halladay as the only nine-game winners in baseball, Greinke (8-2) was instead tagged for a season high seven runs -- five earned -- and nine hits in five innings. He walked one and struck out three. The right-hander dropped to 1-4 with a 7.07 ERA in his career at Rogers Centre. ``He wasn't as sharp to both sides of the plate," Royals manager Trey Hillman said. ``Specifically today, he needed to pitch inside a little bit more. He tried to get in there a couple of times and left it out over the plate.""

Read more....Box Score

Ichiro's Hit Streak Ends At 27 Games, Mariners Lose In Extra Innings

Minnesota Twins 2 - 1 Seattle Mariners (in 10)

Ichiro's hitting streak also come to a halt today.

``Pinch-hitter Ken Griffey Jr. fouled out against Twins closer Joe Nathan before Suzuki -- with the crowd of 35,808 of chanting, pleading "Eee-chee-ro!" -- struck out for the final out, ending his team-record hitting streak. Francisco Liriano pitched six strong innings to perhaps save his place in the rotation and help the Twins win for the fourth time in five games. Matt Gurrier (2-0) allowed one hit in 1 2-3 innings, and Nathan finished for his 11th save in 13 chances."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Stuart Appleby - Appleby cards a lower front 9 score
2) Dinara Safina vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3 sets played
3) Wales @ Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan win or draw
4) Tiger Woods' 3rd Round Score - 69 or lower
5) Virginia @ Ole Miss - Ole Miss
6) East Carolina @ North Carolina - East Carolina
7) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - New York
8) Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
9) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
10) Where Will `Mine That Bird' Finish: 1^st or 2^nd vs. 3^rd or worse - 3^rd or worse
11) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros - Pittsburgh
12) Brad Keselowski vs. Jason Leffler - Keselowski has a better finishing position
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings - Detroit
14) Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics - Baltimore
15) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - San Diego

Previews

Azerbaijan has yet to score a goal in 4 World Cup qualifiers.

3) For Azerbaijan this is essentially a match against an injury ravaged Wales side with both teams being all but eliminated from the World Cup. Wales will be missing Craig Bellamy, Simon Davies, James Collins, Gareth Bale, Rhys Williams, and Carl Robinson. This article from Setanta Sports puts a posistive spin on it for the Welsh pointing out their strong youth players. Azerbaijan has yet to score a goal in their 4 World Cup qualifying matches and failed to score at Millenium Stadium in Wales where they lost 1-0 from an 83' goal by Samuel Vokes after having a man sent off at 68'. It would be remarkable for Azerbaijan to hold Wales scoreless, but after doing so for 83', and a man down for part of that time, I think they are capable of it.