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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Sunday, June 7, 2009

June 7th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)The losing continued for a bit when Kuznetsova wiped away Safina without a second thought and Azerbaijan failed to hold Wales scoreless, no surprise they failed to score themselves though. Then got back on track with the Mariners and Red Wings, the first being a close one and the latter being a nice little blowout. And so on to the picks.

Recaps


Kuznetsova Powers Past Safina For Her 2nd Grand Slam Title 6-4 6-2
``I came out there and said, ‘Everything's great, I'm just doing my thing I love. I'm enjoying. It's my passion, what I'm doing. It's my job. And I cannot ask for more.”
-- 2009 French Open Champion Svetlana Kuznetsova
``It was the pressure I put on myself because I really wanted to win. I just didn't handle it, I was a little bit desperate on the court, and didn't do the things that I had to do. Didn't stay tough mentally.”
-- 2009 French Open runner up Dinara Safina
An impressive performance by Svetlana Kuznetsova lands her the title at Roland Garros.
``For Svetlana Kuznetsova, a career which promised so much when she won the US Open at the age of 19 only to stutter ever since is now definitively back on track. Dinara Safina meanwhile will go back to being known as “Marat’s little sister” and “No. 1 without winning a Slam” until she can silence her critics – and more importantly the doubting voices inside her own head – and finally prove her worth in the final of a Major."
Read more....Box ScoreThoughts From The Players...

Red Dragons World Cup Hopes Linger With Victory At Baku
Wales 1 - 0 Azerbaijan
Although they will require some cooperation from Germany and Russia to qualify for the World Cup Wales are still in contention with a win today.
``Wolves' Dave Edwards' second international goal was enough for a young and depleted Wales side to secure a narrow World Cup qualifying win in Baku. The Wolves midfielder made the most of panic in the box three minutes before the break to fire into an empty net. He was free to strike as the Azerbaijan defence failed to deal with Robert Earnshaw's right-wing cross. From then on he and his team-mates battled for every inch to produce a victory. There were only 79 Wales fans in this stadium and, having had their tickets given to them free by the Football Association of Wales, they must have loved every minute."
Read more from BBC....Read more from Observer...Box Score

RBI Doubles By Griffey, Ichiro Enough To Stop Twins
Seattle Mariners 2 - 1 Minnesota Twins
``A day after his club-record 27-game hitting streak ended, Suzuki went 3 for 4 against the Twins, including a two-out RBI double in the fifth that tied it at 1. Suzuki also sparked Seattle's winning rally in the eighth, chopping a leadoff single over the head of left hander Sean Henn. Russell Branyan struck out and Adrian Beltre popped up before Ken Griffey Jr. came up with his tiebreaking hit. Griffey drove in Ichiro Suzuki with a two-out double in the eighth inning and the Seattle Mariners edged the Minnesota Twins 2-1 on Saturday."
Read more....Box Score

Wings 2nd Line, Osgood, Step Up To Blank Pens, Take 3-2 Series Lead
Detroit Red Wings 5 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins
Wow, a true manhandling of Pittsburgh by a veteran Detroit team. Their power play was unstoppable.
``After watching their two-game lead in the Stanley Cup finals disappear in Pittsburgh, the defending champions returned to the friendly confines of Joe Louis Arena and blew away the supposedly fresher Penguins 5-0 in Game 5 on Saturday night. Chris Osgood, on the verge of his fourth Stanley Cup championship -- third as the Red Wings starting goalie -- made 22 saves for his 15th playoff shutout. He earned an assist on Valtteri Filppula's goal for his fifth career playoff point, and improved to 11-4 in the finals."
Read more....Box Score



Picks
1) Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling - 4 or 5 sets played
2) Ian Poulter vs. Charley Hoffman - Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
3) East Carolina vs. North Carolina - North Carolina
4) Elche C.F. @ Levante U.D. - Elche C.F. win or draw
5) Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds - Chicago
6) Tiger Woods' Finish At The Memorial: Tied for 3rd or better vs. 4th or worse - T-3 or better
7) Tony Stewart vs. Jeff Gordon - Stewart has a better finishing position
8) Virginia @ Ole Miss - Virginia
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
10) Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
11) San Francisco Giants @ Florida Marlins - Florida
12) Southern Miss @ Florida - Southern Miss
13) Dwight Howard vs. Pau Gasol - Gasol pts.
14) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia
15) Clemson @ Arizona State - Arizona State

Previews
1) Well, the final match of Roland Garros 2009 is here, featuring 13 time Grand Slam winner Roger Federer against first time Grand Slam finalist Robin Soderling. A win today would see Federer tie Pete Sampras' all-time record with 14 Grand Slam titles, and would make him the first since Andre Agassi in 1999 to win all four Grand Slam titles and on four different surfaces no less. Soderling has never advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam tournament before this year's French Open so his success has been an incredible storyline and a win today would be an incredible achievement and step forward in his career.


Robin Soderling's serve will surely make Federer hang his head at times, but in the end it will be Roger's yell bouncing off the walls at Roland Garros.

Federer is an impressive 9-0 against Soderling over their careers, and has lost just one set to him in those 9 matches, back in 2005 on grass. Federer was also 5-0 against Juan Martin del Potro and had never lost a set to him, but despite that del Potro took Federer to 5 sets. Tommy Haas also took him to 5 sets, while Jose Acasuso and Paul Henri-Mathieu each took him to 4 sets. Against those three he was 14-2 all time and had previously dropped a total of 9 out of 40 (22.5%) sets played against them before dropping 4 out of 13 (30.8%) in this tournament. All told Federer has won 2 of his 6 matches in straight sets while Soderling has won 3 of his 6 matches in straight sets. Both players would seem to have struggled enough against lesser players than one another to be defeated in straight sets, and yet that would be a mutually exclusive event leaving a win for one or the other in 4 or 5 sets as the only choice left over. There are a great number of previews

being written on this match, so I encourage you to read them. Most 'experts' agree this will be a highly competitive match, with Federer holding the advantage in overall skill and variety of shots, and Soderling having a power advantage as well as having less pressure stacked on his shoulders.


||←←¦¦ΞΞ==----Watch The Match Live Right Here----==ΞΞ¦¦→→||



Levante Unión Deportiva will miss the services of top goal scorer Geijo (10) in today's match with Elche C.F.
4)

Elche C.F. make the trip to Valencia to avenge their January 2-0 defeat at home to Levante.
Levante Unión Deportiva will host Elche C.F. today at Ciudad de Valenica with nothing but pride and that winning feeling on the line. With only 9 points left available this season both clubs sit within the safety zone and well off of promotion. A quick look at the Segunda Liga tables shows Levante (8th) 6 points above Elche (11th) despite having a -2 goal differential on the season compared to Elche's +7 differential. At home Levante has a +10 differential and 11-3-5 (W-D-L) record while Elche's differential is 0 with a 5-7-7 record on the road. As for their recent form Elche C.F. has been quite good on the road, defeating Rayo Vallecano (5th) and drawing against Cordoba (15th) and U.D. Salamanca (7th) in their last three away matches. Levante has not been quite as good, defeating Rayo Vallecano and Alicante (20th), but losing to U.D. Salamanca in their last 3 home matches.

Levante face a few injury concerns though Rubén Suárez, tied for top goal scorer this season, is thankfully not among them after picking up a slight knock earlier in the week. Levante will be without forwards Alvaro del Moral and Geijo, as well as defender Robusté with Manolo Reina a major doubt. Geijo will be a big loss for the team as he is their other top goal scorer and scored their only non-penalty goal in their away match against Elche in January, which they won, 2-0. Elche C.F.'s homepage is down at the moment so news is difficult to come by for them, but I can only assume they have most of the side they have had which has led them to win or draw their past three away matches against teams higher up on the tables than Levante. Based on their recent form and Levante's less than intimidating goal differential at home I would favor Elche C.F. to come away with a draw in this match if not win it outright. So long as they do not have a man sent off mid-way through the second half that is.

13) The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a 100-75 win over the Orlando Magic in Game 1 of their NBA Finals series and could take a commanding 2-0 lead tonight with another strong performance.


(left) Gasol knows he's money with his mid-range jumper; (center) Howard is blinded by Gasol on a shot attempt; (right) Howard attempts to drive through Andrew Bynum.
The biggest doubt for the Lakers in that respect is whether they can maintain their defensive intensity to such a high level and whether the Orlando Magic will continue to cooperate. Orlando shot 29.9% from the field in Game 1 and only 34.8% from three point range. The Lakers are a good defensive team, one of the best in the league, but clearly Orlando was also a little off on their shooting to score only 75 points. A big question then is what adjustments will Stan Van Gundy make offensively to remedy that situation. I'm not an NBA coach but I'm guessing one strategy he will employ is to try and take higher percentage shots. In other words, Orlando will be trying to pound the ball in the middle, will try and run screen and rolls, and will try and run trailer plays, all designed to get open layups and dunks. That would certainly seem to imply Howard will make more than one field goal and score more than 12 points. As for the Lakers, having won by 25 points they are more likely to continue doing what they have been doing, and that's get Andrew Bynum involved in the game, let Kobe take over at times, and play solid inside out offense to get open shots from any distance.

Looking at the graph below it's difficult to see where either player has much of an advantage. Howard has scored more points in a single game this year, on the road no less, than Pau Gasol has scored in any game at home. Howard is also averaging 18 points in three games against the Lakers, while Gasol is averaging only 13 points in those games. Gasol did outscore Howard 16-12 in Game one of this series, however, and Howard has scored fewer than 15 points in 16 of 48 road games (33.3%) this year so it wasn't an exceptionally poor game for the big man. Gasol, on the other hand, has scored fewer than 15 points in only 11 of 51 (21.6%) home games this year. Howard has a much bigger problem with getting into foul trouble, and has less range on his shot than Pau Gasol who is deadly to at least 12 feet out. I think Howard is more than capable of blowing up for 30 plus points in Game 2, but I also think the Lakers are capable of locking down on him defensively, fouling him hard to make him work for points at the line, and frustrating him in general by exaggerating contact and drawing offensive fouls on him. I think it will be extremely close, but in the end Gasol outscores Howard in this game, something like 18 points to 17 points.

Howard has averaged 18 points in three games against L.A. this year compared to 13 points for Gasol, though Pau did outscore Superman 16 to 12 in Game 1.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

June 6th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)Fuckin' ugly day, going 0-3-1 with Gonzalez teasing with a comeback only to drop 5 straight games to lose the match, Arkansas game being suspended so even though they won 9-2 eventually I got a push only, Kansas City falling hard for their 8th straight loss, and Ichiro Suzuki having zero success against Liriano.

Today's a little bare bones, but tomorrow will be meatier and with some projects finishing the picks will improve.

Recaps


Soderling Advances To His First Grand Slam Final Over Gonzalez In 5 Sets
6-3 7-5 5-7 4-6 6-4

``In the fourth set, the 28-year-old Gonzalez blew his top in the ninth game over a questionable line call. After a Soderling groundstroke fell close to the line with the Chilean serving, Gonzalez battled with both the chair umpire and the lineperson, indicating that the latter was pointing to the wrong mark. After losing the battle, he sat down on the clay and wiped out the mark with his backside, possibly an Open Era first. But instead of completely losing his cool, grew even more motivated Gonzalez managed to hold to 5-4 and then broke the Swede to win the set when Soderling hit a forehand wide."

Overall Soderling outplayed Gonzalez and you can see some evidence of that in their serve statistics, especially their second serve speed. Soderling was confident enough to remain aggressive on his while Gonzalez pulled back.
Read more....Serve Stats Box Score

Arkansas One Game Away From College World Series
Arkansas Razorbacks 9 - 2 Florida State Seminoles
Rather bogus turn of events here as anyone who picked Arkansas got a push rather than a win, with the rain delays forcing the game on into the evening.
``A patient Arkansas squad took the game's largest lead in the top of the seventh inning when it scored three runs on no hits. A leadoff walk to Andy Wilkins was followed by another walk and then a hit batter, loading the bases with no outs. Brett Eibner followed with another walk to bring in Wilkins and James McCann's sacrifice fly to deep right-center field scored Bigham. Arkansas' third came across on a finely executed safety squeeze by Collin Kuhn, making it a 5-2 game. The Hogs tacked on two additional runs in the eighth to make it a 7-2 game capitalizing this time on three Florida State errors."
Read more....Box Score

Greinke Gets Bombed, Gives Up 6 Earned Runs In First 3 Innings
Toronto Blue Jays 9 - 3 Kansas City Royals
Greinke's streak of innings without a home run came to a crashing halt today.
``Seeking to join Toronto's Roy Halladay as the only nine-game winners in baseball, Greinke (8-2) was instead tagged for a season high seven runs -- five earned -- and nine hits in five innings. He walked one and struck out three. The right-hander dropped to 1-4 with a 7.07 ERA in his career at Rogers Centre. ``He wasn't as sharp to both sides of the plate," Royals manager Trey Hillman said. ``Specifically today, he needed to pitch inside a little bit more. He tried to get in there a couple of times and left it out over the plate.""
Read more....Box Score

Ichiro's Hit Streak Ends At 27 Games, Mariners Lose In Extra Innings
Minnesota Twins 2 - 1 Seattle Mariners (in 10)
Ichiro's hitting streak also come to a halt today.
``Pinch-hitter Ken Griffey Jr. fouled out against Twins closer Joe Nathan before Suzuki -- with the crowd of 35,808 of chanting, pleading "Eee-chee-ro!" -- struck out for the final out, ending his team-record hitting streak. Francisco Liriano pitched six strong innings to perhaps save his place in the rotation and help the Twins win for the fourth time in five games. Matt Gurrier (2-0) allowed one hit in 1 2-3 innings, and Nathan finished for his 11th save in 13 chances."
Read more....Box Score


Picks
1) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Stuart Appleby - Appleby cards a lower front 9 score
2) Dinara Safina vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3 sets played
3) Wales @ Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan win or draw
4) Tiger Woods' 3rd Round Score - 69 or lower
5) Virginia @ Ole Miss - Ole Miss
6) East Carolina @ North Carolina - East Carolina
7) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - New York
8) Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
9) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
10) Where Will `Mine That Bird' Finish: 1st or 2nd vs. 3rd or worse - 3rd or worse
11) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros - Pittsburgh
12) Brad Keselowski vs. Jason Leffler - Keselowski has a better finishing position
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings - Detroit
14) Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics - Baltimore
15) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - San Diego

Previews

Azerbaijan has yet to score a goal in 4 World Cup qualifiers.
3) For Azerbaijan this is essentially a match against an injury ravaged Wales side with both teams being all but eliminated from the World Cup. Wales will be missing Craig Bellamy, Simon Davies, James Collins, Gareth Bale, Rhys Williams, and Carl Robinson. This article from Setanta Sports puts a posistive spin on it for the Welsh pointing out their strong youth players. Azerbaijan has yet to score a goal in their 4 World Cup qualifying matches and failed to score at Millenium Stadium in Wales where they lost 1-0 from an 83' goal by Samuel Vokes after having a man sent off at 68'. It would be remarkable for Azerbaijan to hold Wales scoreless, but after doing so for 83', and a man down for part of that time, I think they are capable of it.

Friday, June 5, 2009

June 5th, 2009 Picks

I have a slight inkling how Rafael Nadal must have felt after today with an excruciating string of losses leading to my personally going, 1-2-0 today. Started off with a shaky Safina winning her match in straight sets, but 18 games, then bet the wrong way on Randy Johnson and his 300th, and finally managed to end the day on a high note with the Philadelphia Phillies bringing me back to W1.

Recaps
Dinara Safina Defeats Dominika Cibulkova 6-3 6-3
So close to the domination expected by Safina over Dominika:
``The Russian was nervous and far from her best, but her inexperienced Slovakian opponent did not possess the variety of shots to knock the top seed off her pedestal. Safina will face Svetlana Kuznetsova in a clay-court final for the third time this year, after losing in Stuttgart and winning the title in Rome."
Read more....

Randy Johnson Collects 300th Win Against Nationals
San Francisco Giants 5 - 1 Washington Nationals
Wow, it came down to one pitch on a full count with the bases loaded. A ball and the tying run would have walked home. A strike and the inning was over:
``He [Johnson] left leading 2-1, but nearly wound up with a no-decision. The Nationals loaded the bases with two outs in the eighth before Adam Dunn was called out on strikes with a full count on a knee-high fastball from reliever Brian Wilson. ...although Wilson's strikeout of Dunn was a borderline call disputed by the Nationals slugger."
Johnson pitched a great game, however, and deserved the win. The Giants defense helped out as well:
``After Dukes' hit, Johnson walked Austin Kearns to give the Nationals runners on first and second with none out. But second baseman Emmanuel Burriss thwarted a rally with the defensive play of the game. On a one-hopper that hit the mound, Burriss dived to his right to stab the ball backhanded, then flipped it out of his glove to shortstop Edgar Renteria to start a dazzling double play."
Read more....

Hamels Pitches Complete Game Shutout, Dodgers Fail To Score For Second Time This Season
Philadelphia Phillies 3 - 0 Los Angeles Dodgers
Congratulations to Cole Hamels and the Phillies who won 3-0 at Dodgers Stadium:
``In his first start in Los Angeles since winning the clincher of the NL championship series, Hamels (4-2) threw 97 pitches, retiring 18 of his last 20 batters and allowing only two runners as far as second base -- one of them on defensive indifference in the ninth."
Read more.... Box Score


Picks (Click on bold matchups to scroll directly to their previews)
1) Robin Soderling vs. Fernando Gonzalez - Gonzalez
2) Mike Weir vs. Ben Curtis - Weir cards more birdies on the front 9
3) Florida State vs. Arkansas - Arkansas
4) Jim Furyk vs. Vijay Singh - Furyk cards a lower or identical second round score
5) Ole Miss vs. Virginia - Virginia
6) Shamrock Rovers @ Cork City - Shamrock Rovers win or draw
7) Rice vs. LSU - LSU
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - New York
9) Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays - Kansas City
10) Mike Skinner vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. - Hornaday Jr. has a better finishing position
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia
12) Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Minnesota
13) Will Ichiro Suzuki's Hit Streak Reach 28 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes
14) CS Fullerton vs. Louisville - CS Fullerton

Analysis
1) This half of the bracket was supposed to bring a highly anticipated Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray matchup, or at the very least Nadal who had never lost at Roland Garros through some 40 odd matches. Fernando Gonzalez prevented Murray from making his entry into this round, however, defeating him soundly in 4 sets in the quarterfinals while Soderling pulled off the upset of the year, if not the decade, by defeating #1 ranked Nadal in the fourth round.
Match Stats
SoderlingGonzalez
1st Serve %59.3%65.9%
1st Serve Won %76.4%82.4%
2nd Serve Win %55.5%67.5%
Receiving Win %42.1%44.3%
Unforced Errors197100
Data through all 5 rounds of play
Those kinds of wins demand attention and the analysts are split over who they expect to come out victorious today, with Gonzalez having the experience and being the better player on paper and Soderling... well, Soderling beat Rafael Nadal. At the French Open! You can read their views by clicking here and selecting a preview.

Looking at the table to the right one can see that, on paper, Gonzalez is a clear choice to come out of this match victorious. He's won over 80% of his first serves and over two-thirds of his second serves, compared to 76% of first serves won and 56% of second serves for Soderling. He's also won a greater proportion of his points receiving (points played with the opponent serving). Those could be attributed to Gonzalez playing an easier draw as he had avoided any player ranked #25 or higher all the way till the quarterfinals where he played #3 Andy Murray. Soderling, on the other hand, has faced players ranked #15 or higher in the past three rounds, including of course a match with #1 Nadal. Where Gonzalez has shown clearly better play then is in his first serves put in play and unforced errors. Soderling has faulted on just over 40% of his services, while Gonzalez has only failed to put his first serve in play 34% of the time. Soderling has also committed nearly 200 errors in this tournament, most coming against Nadal (59) and Ferrer (61). That he won those matches at all is incredible and evidence of his opponents not playing their finest games.


Gonzalez has dominated, losing one set on the way to the semi-finals of the French Open, but will he be good enough to succeed where the King of Clay failed?

I do think Gonzalez will have to be at his absolute best to defeat a supremely confident Soderling, but having just defeated the #3 ranked player in the world in 4 sets, including a 6-0 thumping in one set, his confidence will be riding high as well. Soderling has the more impressive victories of the two. He has the more unimpressive wins up to this point as well as in his straight sets victory over #91 Kevin Kim with two of the sets being decided on tie break. While I feel Soderling is certainly capable of defeating Gonzalez I think Gonzalez would have to play down for that to happen.

4) The Memorial Tournament is hosted by Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus designed course established in 1974. Both Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk have won this event once in the past, with Furyk taking home the winners' purse in 2002 and Singh in 1997. Since 2002 Singh's best finish was 4th place in 2003 with Furyk topping out with an 8th place finish in 2005.


Vijay Singh will have to shoot better than 75 to have any hope of receiving a paycheck this weekend.
In the 19 rounds they have each played at this event, from 2002 till now, Furyk has carded a lower score 8 times, Singh has carded a lower score 8 times, with the two carding identical scores 3 times. That includes their result from this years first round where Furyk was 8 strokes better and has put himself in second place with a 67 while Singh will be looking to make the cut after his 3-over 75. That would make this Vijay Singh's worst round at Muirfield Village since 2002 while Furyk was one stroke off the 64 he shot in the third round in 2005.
Click here for written descriptions of each hole.
Clearly, Singh will be playing more aggressive in an attempt to guarantee his paycheck from this weekend, but will he be able to outpace Furyk? Well, the greatest stroke change from round to round for either player is 9 strokes by Furyk from the second to the third rounds. A 9 stroke improvement. He regressed back to a 68 in the final round that year, a 4 stroke decline, his worst since 2002. Vijay Singh's greatest improvement since 2002 was 4 strokes, going from a 71 to a 67 after the third round in 2007.

Singh may very well match or better that 4 stroke improvement after shooting a 75, but Furyk has been playing well this year, earning $1.5 million from 11 events this year and it's difficult to see him playing that much worse in the second round.


Sand saves such as this will keep Jim Furyk in the hunt for the lead at The Memorial.
Singh has been recovering from surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and while he seems to be mostly back in full form he has missed four cuts out of 12 events, earning $800,000. While Vijay Singh is one of the best golfers in the world Jim Furyk is right up there and injured or not Furyk has had a much better year on the Tour so far. I do think Furyk will card higher than 67 and Singh will do better than 75, but not by a combined 8 strokes or more.







Cork City hope to recover from a dreadful loss at Drogheda United.
6)

A victory would see Shamrock Rovers move into a tie with Cork City for second place."
Shamrock Rovers visit Turner's Cross, the home ground of Cork City F.C. in a match that could potentially move them into a tie for second place behind Bohemians in the tables. Cork will be looking to rebound from two consecutive losses in league play, one at home to Bohemians and the other away at last place Drogheda United. Shamrock are riding a 5 match undefeated streak with their latest being a 3-1 win away at Dundalk who lie one place above Drogheda. With that recent victory, and having lost only one match on the road this season, Shamrock Rovers are very confident heading into this one.

Both clubs will face some injury concerns, with Cork City having to do without Joe Gamble (Knee), Robert Mezeckis (Achilles), Davin O’Neill (Ankle), Shane Duggan (Ankle), and Cillian Lordan (suspension). Darragh Maguire and Stephen Rice will face late fitness tests for Shamrock Rovers and Sean Webb will be out indefinitely with a back problem. Joe Gamble, regular substitute for the Irish national team and having appeared in 9 matches for Cork is their only major injury and his absence from midfield may disrupt their ability to transition from defense to offense. Shamrock should see Maguire and Rice fit and that will help them tremendously in this match.

“We’ve been very good away from home and have lost only one game on the road so far this season – so going down to Turner’s Cross holds absolutely no fear for us."
---Shamrock Manager Michael O'Neill

Being at Turner's Cross Cork City are the favorites in this match with their odds at 4/5 to 8/11 (-125 to -140) while Shamrock are being given 3/1 odds or worse. Given these clubs' recent form and overall performances this season I really think Shamrock provide a great value as they should be able to pull off a draw if not win outright. In a low scoring contest Cork City may win 1-0 but Shamrock are one of the better offenses in the Irish Premier ranking 3rd overall with 21 goals scored in 15 matches. Yes, it is a low scoring league, so a 1-1 draw seems quite likely.

9) The Kansas City Royals take a trip up north to the Rogers Centre to visit the Toronto Blue Jays, bringing with them a 7 game losing streak, a .149 batting average from their last series, and a .234 slugging average to go along with it. The story of the day, of course, is Zack Greinke extending his streak of innings pitched without giving up a home run while going for his 9th win of the season to tie league leader, Toronto's Roy Halladay.


The Kansas City Royals will attempt to snap their 7 game losing streak today in Toronto.
Greinke hasn't had much success in the past at the Rogers Centre, posting a 1-3 record with a 6.65 ERA during his career. “I haven't really pitched there recently. Last year, I thought I pitched decent, but they got a couple runs in tough situations and it ended up not being good." said Greinke, explaining away his past poor performances against the Blue Jays. Greinke is coming off his worst start of the season, a 7 inning start against the Chicago White Sox in which he gave up 3 earned runs. He had not given up more than 2 earned runs in his previous 10 starts and the performance was still enough to qualify as a quality start though the Royals lost the game 7-4. Greinke struck out 7 batters and walked none. It was his second consecutive game, spanning 16 innings, in which he did not walk a batter.

Facing off against the newly minted ace extraordinaire is hot prospect Ricky Romero. Romero has posted a 5.08 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through 5 starts. He started off the season strong, but has struggled since landing on the disabled list after straining one of his obliques while sneezing. In his last two starts

, against Boston and Baltimore, he's pitched 91/3 innings while giving up 7 earned runs from 17 hits while walking 6 batters.

Greinke will try and mow down the Blue Jays, a somewhat tall order at the Rogers Centre.

Romero can whip a towel to work on his mechanics all day long but he will still have to hope the Royals' remain impotent at bat. At .149 one can't help but expect the Royals to hit semi-decently in this game. If Romero continues to walk batters regularly they may not need all that many hits to score runs, but I expect he'll settle down soon enough. As long as he doesn't sneeze too hard before the game he should pitch a decent game. Given Greinke's track record in Toronto that could spell trouble for the Royals, but I expect the two or three runs Romero gives up will be enough to win this game.

11) The Philadelphia Phillies can thank Cole Hamels for their seventh straight win after he pitched a complete game shut out of the Dodgers, trumping Clayton Kershaw's quality effort. The Dodgers can thankfully count on not having to see Hamels again for a while and look forward to a meeting with 46 year old veteran Jamie Moyer. Moyer has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through 10 starts while giving up 14 home runs in only 531/3 innings pitched. Moyer is coming off his best start of the season, against the Washington Nationals where he pitched 6 innings, giving up only 1 earned run from 3 hits. The run came from a Josh Willingham home run. If Moyer's most recent game against the Dodgers is any indication he will not be repeating his performance against the Nationals. Not even close.


Philadelphia seeks their 8th consecutive victory, and Jamie Moyer the 251st of his career.

The one hope Philadelphia fans do have is their teams success against left handed pitchers, left handers like Eric Milton. Milton has been pitching great since having his elbow surgically reconstructed, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his three starts, most recently against the Chicago Cubs against whom he gave up 2 earned runs in 41/3 innings. Over his career he has not been nearly as successful against the Phillies' batting order, however. In 69 at bats against Milton the Phillies have hit 5 home runs, batting .319 with a .638 slugging percentage. Players like Ibañez, Victorino, and Utley are all batting over .300 against lefties in general this season. They will need to provide all the run support they possibly can for Moyer in this game.

Overall I'd have to say the Dodgers look like the better pick, especially considering Milton's success in a limited number of innings so far this season. Milton will probably not be able to reach 100 pitches so the Phillies will get a good long look at the Dodgers' bullpen, but that is probably a worse scenario for them than facing Milton for 7 innings. Milton is pitching even better than he did before the surgery and so a return back to his career averages would seem likely, especially against Philadelphia. If Moyer can pitch even half-way decently tonight and give up at most 4 or 5 earned runs I think Philadelphia has a good chance to win.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

June 4th, 2009 Picks

Awww hell, 0-1-0 today with Bay's single being enough to sink me and my streak. Lot's of golf and a couple tennis props on the board tomorrow so I'm hoping for an 11-4-0 day at worst.
UPDATE: In an attempt to get all the previews tomorrow up before the first matchup of the day starts, and to pick more damn winners, the evening previews for tonight will be a bit thin. On the plus side, four straight losers this morning should lead to a nice run of winners this evening.

Recaps
Bay Single And Beckett's 2-Hitter Enough To Sink Cabrera, Tigers
Boston Red Sox 10 - 5 Detroit Tigers
Called Bay having a poor game 100%, one single for him, but Beckett was awesome, 72/3 innings and only 2 hits allowed! Phenomenal stuff there. Cabrera had a chance even then, but his one hit off a reliever was a weak grounder that would have been an out if Lowell hadn't mishandled it. From the article: "Beckett (6-2) gave up a single to Curtis Granderson with two outs in the seventh to end the no-hit bid. He retired 18 straight after walking Placido Polanco with one out in the first until he walked Magglio Ordonez with one out in the seventh. Miguel Cabrera hit a fly to the warning track in right-center before Granderson singled to right." Read more....


Picks click on bold posts to scroll directly to them
1) Dinara Safina vs. Dominika Cibulkova - 17 games or fewer
2) Aaron Baddeley vs. Johnson Wagner - Baddeley cards more birdies on the front 9
3) Samantha Stosur vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2 sets
4) New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates - New York
5) Ernie Els or Zach Johnson vs. Tiger Woods - Els or Johnson card a lower 1st round score
6) Kenny Perry's Total Par 5's Score: 18 strokes or fewer vs. 19 strokes or more - 18 strokes or fewer
7) Municipal @ Suchitepequez - Municipal win or draw
8) Will Randy Johnson Get Win Number 300 Today: Yes or No - No
9) Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves - Chicago
10) San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals - Washington
11) New York Red Bulls @ DC United - New York win or draw
12) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Detroit
13) Dwight Howard vs. Kobe Bryant - Bryant pts. and reb.
14) Toronto Nationals @ Washington Bayhawks - Toronto
15) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia

Analysis
1) Dinara Safina and Dominika Cibulkova have each waltzed through to the semi-finals at Roland Garros for the most part. Safina lost her first set in the quarterfinals to Victoria Azarenka, having lost only 5 games up to that point, and has won 61 games with 17 losses including the match with Azarenka. Cibulkova lost her only set in the first round, to #28 Alona Bondarenko and has won 62 games with 29 losses to reach the semi-finals.
Match Stats
SafinaCibulkova
1st Serve %67.2%60.6%
1st Serve Won %73.6%65.4%
2nd Serve Win %43.5%50.8%
Receiving Win %55.4%52.6%
Unforced Errors79110
Data through all 5 rounds of play
The table at the left displays some of that dominance with each player winning over 50% of their points while receiving. Safina has been a bit better, however, with over 2/3 of her first serves being in play and winning over 70% of those services compared to Cibulkova who has faulted on nearly 40% of her first services and winning just 65% of those put in play. Safina has also committed fewer errors than Cibulkova, though both players have more than one match with over 20 errors with Cibulkova committing 45 errors in her first round match.

The official Roland Garros site has a nice match analysis section covering this match. They note Safina has had a weak mental game in the past which has been more or less mastered thanks to a new coach. I think she shows a little bit of those mental lapses remaining however, with only 45% of her 2nd services converted into points. They note Safina is much bigger and more powerful, but Cibulkova is very fast paced. Safina is a huge favorite to win this match and from their head to head match ups one can see why. They have met twice, both last year and on hard court, with Safina winning both times in straight sets. One match took 15 games to complete and the other match took 19 games. The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour site also has a brief preview where they also note Cibulkova is simply outmatched in terms of height, power, and shots.


Dinara Safina has been here before, but will her advantages in strength, height, and experience be enough to overcome the feisty 20 year old Slovak?

Overall I think Cibulkova has been playing tremendously especially in her domination of Maria Sharapova, but that may have been due to fatigue setting in on the unfit Sharapova. Safina has been just as dominant, with her only set loss coming to #9 ranked Azarenka, someone who I would favor to beat Cibulkova, possibly in straight sets. Cibulkova is only 20 years old and has never progressed this far in a Grand Slam tournament. She may have nothing to play for with nobody expecting her to win, but I think nerves may set in if she wins a game or two as she starts to think "what-if". Of course it could work the opposite way, with Safina losing a game, then another, and a third with frustration overcoming her, but I think she would grit her teeth and up her level of play after losing the first game. Cibulkova has just not been as good as Safina even in her straight set victories and I think it will be enough for Safina to win the match quickly and efficiently. Keep in mind, however, Cibulkova only has to win 6 games total to send this over 18 matches.

Ξ Ξ Ξ==__|| Watch the match live from UStream ||== Ξ Ξ Ξ


Samantha Stosur has an entire continent rooting for her. Kuznetsova has her game.
3) Samantha Stosur and Svetlana Kuznetsova have eached faced their share of challenges in this tournament having been taken to three sets in earlier rounds of the tournament. Most recently Stosur had a difficult straight sets victory over Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-3 while Kuznetsova advanced through the quarterfinals past Serena Williams in a marathan 77-63 5-7 7-5 match.

Head to head these two do not have much experience with their only match being in 2004, a straight sets victory for Kuznetsova on hard court. Looking at their matches on clay this year on the WTA Tour one can see that Stosur winning 4 matches and losing 1 in straight sets, and winning 2 matches and losing 2 in three sets. Kuznetsova has been more dominant on the clay surface with 10 matches won and 2 lost in straight sets to go with 5 matches won and 1 lost in three sets. Overall then these two have played 20 matches decided in straight sets and 7 matches decided in three sets on clay surfaces this year. Kuznetsova defeated Dinara Safina in straight sets earlier this year and I think she may be able to dispatch Stosur in the same fashion.

8) Randy Johnson faces an historic milestone tonight as he looks to get his 300th career win in the first game of a doubleheader against the Washington Nationals. Washington will be starting Jordan Zimmerman, who was 1 going on 2 years old, when Johnson threw his first pitch in the Majors.


Randy Johnson pitching against Atlanta, his 299th win. Can he repeat that success today?
For Randy Johnson to pick up the win he needs to pitch at least 5 innings, the Giants must have the lead when he is relieved, and the Giants must keep that lead for the rest of the game. Jordan Zimmerman does have a tendency to give up runs early in the game, but the Nationals offense bails him out quite a bit and his record for the season is 2-2. The last time Zimmerman pitched against the Giants San Francisco had Matt Cain pitching. The Nationals came back to tie the game before Cain was relieved in the 8th inning and both starting pitchers ended up with a 'No Decision'. I think something very similar to that could end up happening in today's game.

14 ) OK, here's the deal. This game is being played as we speak. Toronto is currently leading 13-11 after the third quarter. It doesn't lock until it is replayed on ESPN2 later tonight. By that time the winner should be just about decided so if you like you can take the gimmie on this one after checking out the final score.

June 3rd, 2009 Picks

Wow, well 2-0-0 today with Gonzalez and Hawpe, but man were my picks shitty today overall. I blame it on g++ not giving me the right error codes.... Tomorrow will be a much better day, especially with some props to choose from. And my condolences to anyone who picked the Cubs tonight. Game over but for Soto dropping a wild pitch.

Recaps


Gonzalez Passes By Murray In 4 Sets 6-3 3-6 6-0 6-4
"One set all therefore – had Murray weathered the storm? Would Gonzalez be forced to play more cagily? Not a bit of it. The third set saw Murray blown off court 6-0 as Gonzalez hit a raft of forehand winners – 24 of them from the baseline alone throughout the match – and then deciding to dust off his slice, drop and cross-court play as he took the set on a wave of confidence. Murray had no answer to this combination of power and variation, his tennis looking terribly one-dimensional in comparison." Read more....

Carlos Lee 0-for-4, Hawpe With Double, Astros Win Anyways 3-2 (in 11)
Felipe Paulino was dominant early, striking out five of the first 10 batters he faced. But the Rockies took a 2-0 lead in the fourth on back-to-back doubles by Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe and an RBI single by Seth Smith. Read more....

Picks click on bold posts to scroll directly to them
1) Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Serena Williams - Kuznetsova
2) Roger Federer vs. Gael Monfils - 39 games or fewer
3) Netherlands U20 @ Argentina U20 - Netherlands U20 win or draw
4) Jason Bay vs. Miguel Cabrera - Cabrera records more total bases
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays - Los Angeles
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Florida Marlins - Florida
7) Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros - Houston
8) Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
9) Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - Cincinnati
10) United States @ Costa Rica - United States win
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres - Philadelphia
12) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore
13) Will Ichiro Suzuki Extend His Hit Streak To 27 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes

Analysis
1) Ended up with too much to do, but basically had Kuznetsova on here because she's committed fewer errors and has won a greater proportion of her service and receiving points.

4) The Detroit Tigers host the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park as they attempt to stay on the winning side of the series after dropping the first game 5-1 yesterday. Boston will start a red hot Josh Beckett to help them continue making up ground on the AL East leading New York Yankees. Beckett has put together three lights out starts5/28 @MIN - 3H, 1ER, 1HR
5/23 v.NYM - 5H, 0ER, 0HR
5/16 @TB - 4H, 2ER, 1HR
, allowing no more than 5 hits or 2 earned runs against Minnesota, the Mets, or Seattle. He will be facing off against Armando Galarraga who has been struggling a bit, giving up 20 hits and 5 home runs in his last 3 starts5/28 @BAL - 10H, 3ER, 2HR
5/23 v.COL - 6H, 4ER, 2HR
4/17 v.OAK - 4H, 5ER, 1HR
. In one of those starts, against Oakland, he pitched for just 2/3 of one inning, throwing 41 pitches and giving up 5 earned runs form 4 hits.
Pitching Statistics
BeckettGalarraga
HIP1.021.09
IP/HR10.44.9
BOS blpnDET blpn
HIP0.840.94
IP/HR13.39.1
HIP - hits per inning pitched
Looking at the table to the left one can see that Beckett and Galarraga give up hits at around the same rate but that Galaragga gives up home runs at twice the rate Beckett does. One can also see that the Boston bullpen gives up hits and home runs less often than Detroit's.

So far this season Jason Bay is batting .286 with a .632 slugging percentage, for an average of 2.21 total bases per hit. 57.7% (30 of 52) of his hits are extra base hits and he has 16 home runs for the season. Cabrera is batting .358 with a .578 slugging percentage, for an average of 1.61 total bases per hit. He has 46 singles this season with 21 extra base hits, 10 of them being home runs meaning he has hit for extra bases on 31.3% of his hits. Last season Cabrera had more home runs than Bay (37 to 31) and hit for extra bases 41.7% of the time while Bay had an extra base hit 42.4% of the time. I think Cabrera is due to hit some doubles and home runs, while Jason Bay is more likely to get singles for a period of time in the near future.

Click above for a closer look. Notice how Bay is at the peak of a hot streak while Cabrera appears to be exiting a slump.

Clicking on the chart to the side one can see how many total bases each player has had on a game-by-game basis, and how their 3 game average has evolved through the season. Each player has gone through slumps and hot streaks this season and that is seen in the 3 game average which tends to undulate up and down. Interestingly, it appears that Cabrera is in a slump at the same time Bay is on a hot streak, and vice versa. The game-by-game average fluctuates even more severly, with a 6 total bases game followed by one with zero total bases regularly. Right now it looks as if Jason Bay is at the peak of a hot streak, having hit a home run in his two previous games, and is about to move into a slump. Cabrera has been in a slump and looks to be moving on to a hot streak.

The graph below shows how many games each player has this season recording a specific number of total bases. One can see Bay has 7 more games with zero total bases than Cabrera and that in those games Cabrera has mainly had one or two total bases. Bay has 5 more games with 3 or more total bases. It looks like Jason Bay tends to either hit a home run, a home run and another hit, a double and a single, two doubles, or no hits at all, whereas Cabrera has many games with one single or one double. Considering Jason Bay has had a home run in three or more consecutive games only once in his 6 year career I think he's more likely to end up with zero total bases in this game than Cabrera. I also think Cabrera is overdue to hit some doubles and home runs. The pitching matchups favor Bay in this one greatly, however, so one of the straight up MLB picks may be a better option on this one.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers have been swept in a series once this season, a little over a week ago to the Minnesota Twins. They will attempt to avoid that fate at Land Shark Stadium when they play the Florida Marlins, a team they swept earlier this season. They will have to do it against Sean West who has recorded a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 innings of Major league play after struggling some with AA Jacksonville

where he gave up 9 home runs in 422/3 innings. Fortunately for West, or perhaps not, the Brewers have had some difficulty with the long ball in their past three games, with a .340 slugging average and .258 batting average en route to scoring 12 runs.

Can the Florida Marlins sweep the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers?

The Marlins, despite a couple of huge home runs in their last game, have also not been hitting hard the past few games, slugging .393 and batting .299, with many singles being hit. Those slugging numbers are actually a bit above the Marlins' season average of .385, partially thanks to the return of Hanley Ramirez to the lineup. They will try and keep up those numbers against Braden Looper tonight. Looper has been above average in consistency

Braden Loopers Starts
CHCCIN@PHIPITARI@CINFLA@STL@MINCIN
GSc: 70+;
GSc: 50-69;
GSc: 40-49;
GSc: 16-39;
GSc:<15
this season with 6 of 10 quality starts, and two non-quality starts being only mediocre rather than poor. He did get touched up a bit in his last start against the Marlins, giving up 5 earned runs, but the Brewers took the game 8-6.

22 year old Sean West will look to continue his Major league success and pick up his first win against the Milwaukee tonight.

Overall the Brewers have the stronger bullpen in terms of WHIP and ERA, and it will only be stronger with the return of Mark DiFelice for today's game. I think Florida only wins this game if Sean West receives the run support that was lacking his last two times out because I don't see Florida making an 8th or 9th inning come back against the Brewers. Milwaukee may or may not improve offensively in this game, but against West I can see them continuing their slump so a few runs of support for West will go a long way.

12)

The Orioles are in a serious slump offensively, batting .145 and scoring 3 runs in their last three games.
Jason Vargas will take to the mound tonight for the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field and try to defend a three game homestand by taking two of three against the Baltimore Orioles. Vargas has posted an incredible 1.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 5 starts and 2 relief efforts encompassing 271/3 innings this season. His last start, against the Los Angeles Angels was one of his worst of the season as he gave up 2 earned runs from 4 hits, including a home run. He had given up no more than 1 earned run in each of his previous 4 starts. He may be facing his greatest challenge of the season tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, though they may not look like much a threat at the moment. In their past three games they have a woeful .154 batting average and an even worse .209 slugging average. The Orioles have blamed some of that on the competition they've faced recently, but I think they've also simply hit a natural slump in the season, and one they are sure to break out of with a vengeance, though I'm sure they're not happy about facing Vargas.

"It's been a tough week, we faced Detroit, who throws some exceptional guys, starters and guys coming out of the pen throwing 100 [mph]. Then you come in here and [Jarrod] Washburn has been throwing well. He's been shutting lefties down. And when Bedard is on his game, he's tough."
--Orioles cleanup batter Aubrey Huff
The Orioles will start 23 year old rookie Brad Bergesen who started the season with the AAA Nofolk Tide. He got off to a rocky start this season, posting a 4.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 8 starts, before putting in a stellar performance against Detroit in his last start. Baltimore will desperately need him to cool off a red hot Seattle team which is batting .324 with a .569 slugging average in their last three games, and that's including this 2 hit stinker the other night.

With Jason Vargas on the mound the Seattle Mariners always have a chance to win.

I think Seattle is likely to cool off some, after all, that 2 hit game was sandwiched in between games with 15 and 16 hits and against a pitcher with a 1.70 WHIP. Bergesen showed what he can do in 8 innings against Detroit and I expect the Orioles will see more of that in the future. If players like Aubrey Huff, Pie, Reimolds, Luke Scott, and especially rookie sensation Matt Wieters can finally break out of their slump I think they could definitely hand Vargas his first poor start of the season. In the end I don't see the Mariners providing much run support, and the Orioles scoring at least two off of Vargas. Unless the Mariners can pull another clutch performance with a multi-run homer in the 8th or 9th inning I like the Orioles to win this game. To get an idea of how likely that may be the Orioles' bullpen has combined to allow a home run every 7 innings they've pitched and have a 1.49 WHIP.