June 3rd, 2009 Picks

Wow, well 2-0-0 today with Gonzalez and Hawpe, but man were my picks shitty today overall. I blame it on g++ not giving me the right error codes.... Tomorrow will be a much better day, especially with some props to choose from. And my condolences to anyone who picked the Cubs tonight. Game over but for Soto dropping a wild pitch.

Recaps

Gonzalez Passes By Murray In 4 Sets 6-3 3-6 6-0 6-4

"One set all therefore – had Murray weathered the storm? Would Gonzalez be forced to play more cagily? Not a bit of it. The third set saw Murray blown off court 6-0 as Gonzalez hit a raft of forehand winners – 24 of them from the baseline alone throughout the match – and then deciding to dust off his slice, drop and cross-court play as he took the set on a wave of confidence. Murray had no answer to this combination of power and variation, his tennis looking terribly one-dimensional in comparison." Read more....

Carlos Lee 0-for-4, Hawpe With Double, Astros Win Anyways 3-2 (in 11)

Felipe Paulino was dominant early, striking out five of the first 10 batters he faced. But the Rockies took a 2-0 lead in the fourth on back-to-back doubles by Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe and an RBI single by Seth Smith. Read more....

Picks click on bold posts to scroll directly to them
1) Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Serena Williams - Kuznetsova
2) Roger Federer vs. Gael Monfils - 39 games or fewer
3) Netherlands U20 @ Argentina U20 - Netherlands U20 win or draw
4) Jason Bay vs. Miguel Cabrera - Cabrera records more total bases
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays - Los Angeles
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Florida Marlins - Florida
7) Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros - Houston
8) Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
9) Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - Cincinnati
10) United States @ Costa Rica - United States win
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres - Philadelphia
12) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore
13) Will Ichiro Suzuki Extend His Hit Streak To 27 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes

Analysis
1) Ended up with too much to do, but basically had Kuznetsova on here because she's committed fewer errors and has won a greater proportion of her service and receiving points.

4) The Detroit Tigers host the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park as they attempt to stay on the winning side of the series after dropping the first game 5-1 yesterday. Boston will start a red hot Josh Beckett to help them continue making up ground on the AL East leading New York Yankees. Beckett has put together three lights out starts5/28 @MIN - 3H, 1ER, 1HR
5/23 v.NYM - 5H, 0ER, 0HR
5/16 @TB - 4H, 2ER, 1HR, allowing no more than 5 hits or 2 earned runs against Minnesota, the Mets, or Seattle. He will be facing off against Armando Galarraga who has been struggling a bit, giving up 20 hits and 5 home runs in his last 3 starts5/28 @BAL - 10H, 3ER, 2HR
5/23 v.COL - 6H, 4ER, 2HR
4/17 v.OAK - 4H, 5ER, 1HR. In one of those starts, against Oakland, he pitched for just ²/₃ of one inning, throwing 41 pitches and giving up 5 earned runs form 4 hits.

Pitching Statistics
	Beckett	Galarraga
HIP	1.02	1.09
IP/HR	10.4	4.9
	BOS blpn	DET blpn
HIP	0.84	0.94
IP/HR	13.3	9.1
HIP - hits per inning pitched

Looking at the table to the left one can see that Beckett and Galarraga give up hits at around the same rate but that Galaragga gives up home runs at twice the rate Beckett does. One can also see that the Boston bullpen gives up hits and home runs less often than Detroit's.

So far this season Jason Bay is batting .286 with a .632 slugging percentage, for an average of 2.21 total bases per hit. 57.7% (30 of 52) of his hits are extra base hits and he has 16 home runs for the season. Cabrera is batting .358 with a .578 slugging percentage, for an average of 1.61 total bases per hit. He has 46 singles this season with 21 extra base hits, 10 of them being home runs meaning he has hit for extra bases on 31.3% of his hits. Last season Cabrera had more home runs than Bay (37 to 31) and hit for extra bases 41.7% of the time while Bay had an extra base hit 42.4% of the time. I think Cabrera is due to hit some doubles and home runs, while Jason Bay is more likely to get singles for a period of time in the near future.

Click above for a closer look. Notice how Bay is at the peak of a hot streak while Cabrera appears to be exiting a slump.

Clicking on the chart to the side one can see how many total bases each player has had on a game-by-game basis, and how their 3 game average has evolved through the season. Each player has gone through slumps and hot streaks this season and that is seen in the 3 game average which tends to undulate up and down. Interestingly, it appears that Cabrera is in a slump at the same time Bay is on a hot streak, and vice versa. The game-by-game average fluctuates even more severly, with a 6 total bases game followed by one with zero total bases regularly. Right now it looks as if Jason Bay is at the peak of a hot streak, having hit a home run in his two previous games, and is about to move into a slump. Cabrera has been in a slump and looks to be moving on to a hot streak.

The graph below shows how many games each player has this season recording a specific number of total bases. One can see Bay has 7 more games with zero total bases than Cabrera and that in those games Cabrera has mainly had one or two total bases. Bay has 5 more games with 3 or more total bases. It looks like Jason Bay tends to either hit a home run, a home run and another hit, a double and a single, two doubles, or no hits at all, whereas Cabrera has many games with one single or one double. Considering Jason Bay has had a home run in three or more consecutive games only once in his 6 year career I think he's more likely to end up with zero total bases in this game than Cabrera. I also think Cabrera is overdue to hit some doubles and home runs. The pitching matchups favor Bay in this one greatly, however, so one of the straight up MLB picks may be a better option on this one.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers have been swept in a series once this season, a little over a week ago to the Minnesota Twins. They will attempt to avoid that fate at Land Shark Stadium when they play the Florida Marlins, a team they swept earlier this season. They will have to do it against Sean West who has recorded a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 innings of Major league play after struggling some with AA Jacksonville

(close)

West Seeks First Win
West's AA Stats

where he gave up 9 home runs in 42²/₃ innings. Fortunately for West, or perhaps not, the Brewers have had some difficulty with the long ball in their past three games, with a .340 slugging average and .258 batting average en route to scoring 12 runs.

Can the Florida Marlins sweep the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers?

The Marlins, despite a couple of huge home runs in their last game, have also not been hitting hard the past few games, slugging .393 and batting .299, with many singles being hit. Those slugging numbers are actually a bit above the Marlins' season average of .385, partially thanks to the return of Hanley Ramirez to the lineup. They will try and keep up those numbers against Braden Looper tonight. Looper has been above average in consistency

Braden Loopers Starts
CHC	CIN	@PHI	PIT	ARI	@CIN	FLA	@STL	@MIN	CIN
	GSc: 70+;		GSc: 50-69;		GSc: 40-49;		GSc: 16-39;		GSc:<15

this season with 6 of 10 quality starts, and two non-quality starts being only mediocre rather than poor. He did get touched up a bit in his last start against the Marlins, giving up 5 earned runs, but the Brewers took the game 8-6.

22 year old Sean West will look to continue his Major league success and pick up his first win against the Milwaukee tonight.

Overall the Brewers have the stronger bullpen in terms of WHIP and ERA, and it will only be stronger with the return of Mark DiFelice for today's game. I think Florida only wins this game if Sean West receives the run support that was lacking his last two times out because I don't see Florida making an 8^th or 9^th inning come back against the Brewers. Milwaukee may or may not improve offensively in this game, but against West I can see them continuing their slump so a few runs of support for West will go a long way.

12)	The Orioles are in a serious slump offensively, batting .145 and scoring 3 runs in their last three games.

Jason Vargas will take to the mound tonight for the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field and try to defend a three game homestand by taking two of three against the Baltimore Orioles. Vargas has posted an incredible 1.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 5 starts and 2 relief efforts encompassing 27¹/₃ innings this season. His last start, against the Los Angeles Angels was one of his worst of the season as he gave up 2 earned runs from 4 hits, including a home run. He had given up no more than 1 earned run in each of his previous 4 starts. He may be facing his greatest challenge of the season tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, though they may not look like much a threat at the moment. In their past three games they have a woeful .154 batting average and an even worse .209 slugging average. The Orioles have blamed some of that on the competition they've faced recently, but I think they've also simply hit a natural slump in the season, and one they are sure to break out of with a vengeance, though I'm sure they're not happy about facing Vargas.

"It's been a tough week, we faced Detroit, who throws some exceptional guys, starters and guys coming out of the pen throwing 100 [mph]. Then you come in here and [Jarrod] Washburn has been throwing well. He's been shutting lefties down. And when Bedard is on his game, he's tough."
--Orioles cleanup batter Aubrey Huff

The Orioles will start 23 year old rookie Brad Bergesen who started the season with the AAA Nofolk Tide. He got off to a rocky start this season, posting a 4.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 8 starts, before putting in a stellar performance against Detroit in his last start. Baltimore will desperately need him to cool off a red hot Seattle team which is batting .324 with a .569 slugging average in their last three games, and that's including this 2 hit stinker the other night.

With Jason Vargas on the mound the Seattle Mariners always have a chance to win.

I think Seattle is likely to cool off some, after all, that 2 hit game was sandwiched in between games with 15 and 16 hits and against a pitcher with a 1.70 WHIP. Bergesen showed what he can do in 8 innings against Detroit and I expect the Orioles will see more of that in the future. If players like Aubrey Huff, Pie, Reimolds, Luke Scott, and especially rookie sensation Matt Wieters can finally break out of their slump I think they could definitely hand Vargas his first poor start of the season. In the end I don't see the Mariners providing much run support, and the Orioles scoring at least two off of Vargas. Unless the Mariners can pull another clutch performance with a multi-run homer in the 8^th or 9^th inning I like the Orioles to win this game. To get an idea of how likely that may be the Orioles' bullpen has combined to allow a home run every 7 innings they've pitched and have a 1.49 WHIP.