June 5th, 2009 Picks

I have a slight inkling how Rafael Nadal must have felt after today with an excruciating string of losses leading to my personally going, 1-2-0 today. Started off with a shaky Safina winning her match in straight sets, but 18 games, then bet the wrong way on Randy Johnson and his 300^th, and finally managed to end the day on a high note with the Philadelphia Phillies bringing me back to W1.

Recaps

Dinara Safina Defeats Dominika Cibulkova 6-3 6-3

So close to the domination expected by Safina over Dominika:

``The Russian was nervous and far from her best, but her inexperienced Slovakian opponent did not possess the variety of shots to knock the top seed off her pedestal. Safina will face Svetlana Kuznetsova in a clay-court final for the third time this year, after losing in Stuttgart and winning the title in Rome."

Read more....

Box Score

Randy Johnson Collects 300^th Win Against Nationals

San Francisco Giants 5 - 1 Washington Nationals

Wow, it came down to one pitch on a full count with the bases loaded. A ball and the tying run would have walked home. A strike and the inning was over:

``He [Johnson] left leading 2-1, but nearly wound up with a no-decision. The Nationals loaded the bases with two outs in the eighth before Adam Dunn was called out on strikes with a full count on a knee-high fastball from reliever Brian Wilson. ...although Wilson's strikeout of Dunn was a borderline call disputed by the Nationals slugger."

Johnson pitched a great game, however, and deserved the win. The Giants defense helped out as well:

``After Dukes' hit, Johnson walked Austin Kearns to give the Nationals runners on first and second with none out. But second baseman Emmanuel Burriss thwarted a rally with the defensive play of the game. On a one-hopper that hit the mound, Burriss dived to his right to stab the ball backhanded, then flipped it out of his glove to shortstop Edgar Renteria to start a dazzling double play."

Read more....

Box Score

Hamels Pitches Complete Game Shutout, Dodgers Fail To Score For Second Time This Season

Philadelphia Phillies 3 - 0 Los Angeles Dodgers

Congratulations to Cole Hamels and the Phillies who won 3-0 at Dodgers Stadium:

``In his first start in Los Angeles since winning the clincher of the NL championship series, Hamels (4-2) threw 97 pitches, retiring 18 of his last 20 batters and allowing only two runners as far as second base -- one of them on defensive indifference in the ninth."

Read more.... Box Score

Picks (Click on bold matchups to scroll directly to their previews)
1) Robin Soderling vs. Fernando Gonzalez - Gonzalez
2) Mike Weir vs. Ben Curtis - Weir cards more birdies on the front 9
3) Florida State vs. Arkansas - Arkansas
4) Jim Furyk vs. Vijay Singh - Furyk cards a lower or identical second round score
5) Ole Miss vs. Virginia - Virginia
6) Shamrock Rovers @ Cork City - Shamrock Rovers win or draw
7) Rice vs. LSU - LSU
8) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - New York
9) Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays - Kansas City
10) Mike Skinner vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. - Hornaday Jr. has a better finishing position
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia
12) Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Minnesota
13) Will Ichiro Suzuki's Hit Streak Reach 28 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes
14) CS Fullerton vs. Louisville - CS Fullerton

Analysis
1) This half of the bracket was supposed to bring a highly anticipated Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray matchup, or at the very least Nadal who had never lost at Roland Garros through some 40 odd matches. Fernando Gonzalez prevented Murray from making his entry into this round, however, defeating him soundly in 4 sets in the quarterfinals while Soderling pulled off the upset of the year, if not the decade, by defeating #1 ranked Nadal in the fourth round.

Match Stats
	Soderling	Gonzalez
1st Serve %	59.3%	65.9%
1st Serve Won %	76.4%	82.4%
2nd Serve Win %	55.5%	67.5%
Receiving Win %	42.1%	44.3%
Unforced Errors	197	100
Data through all 5 rounds of play

Those kinds of wins demand attention and the analysts are split over who they expect to come out victorious today, with Gonzalez having the experience and being the better player on paper and Soderling... well, Soderling beat Rafael Nadal. At the French Open! You can read their views by clicking here

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ESPN
Yahoo!
TennisWorld
LiveTennis

and selecting a preview.

Looking at the table to the right one can see that, on paper, Gonzalez is a clear choice to come out of this match victorious. He's won over 80% of his first serves and over two-thirds of his second serves, compared to 76% of first serves won and 56% of second serves for Soderling. He's also won a greater proportion of his points receiving (points played with the opponent serving). Those could be attributed to Gonzalez playing an easier draw as he had avoided any player ranked #25 or higher all the way till the quarterfinals where he played #3 Andy Murray. Soderling, on the other hand, has faced players ranked #15 or higher in the past three rounds, including of course a match with #1 Nadal. Where Gonzalez has shown clearly better play then is in his first serves put in play and unforced errors. Soderling has faulted on just over 40% of his services, while Gonzalez has only failed to put his first serve in play 34% of the time. Soderling has also committed nearly 200 errors in this tournament, most coming against Nadal (59) and Ferrer (61). That he won those matches at all is incredible and evidence of his opponents not playing their finest games.

Gonzalez has dominated, losing one set on the way to the semi-finals of the French Open, but will he be good enough to succeed where the King of Clay failed?

I do think Gonzalez will have to be at his absolute best to defeat a supremely confident Soderling, but having just defeated the #3 ranked player in the world in 4 sets, including a 6-0 thumping in one set, his confidence will be riding high as well. Soderling has the more impressive victories of the two. He has the more unimpressive wins up to this point as well as in his straight sets victory over #91 Kevin Kim with two of the sets being decided on tie break. While I feel Soderling is certainly capable of defeating Gonzalez I think Gonzalez would have to play down for that to happen.

4) The Memorial Tournament is hosted by Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus designed course established in 1974. Both Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk have won this event once in the past, with Furyk taking home the winners' purse in 2002 and Singh in 1997. Since 2002 Singh's best finish was 4^th place in 2003 with Furyk topping out with an 8^th place finish in 2005.

Vijay Singh will have to shoot better than 75 to have any hope of receiving a paycheck this weekend.

In the 19 rounds they have each played at this event, from 2002 till now, Furyk has carded a lower score 8 times, Singh has carded a lower score 8 times, with the two carding identical scores 3 times. That includes their result from this years first round where Furyk was 8 strokes better and has put himself in second place with a 67 while Singh will be looking to make the cut after his 3-over 75. That would make this Vijay Singh's worst round at Muirfield Village since 2002 while Furyk was one stroke off the 64 he shot in the third round in 2005.

Click to see a gallery of video previews of each hole.

Click here for written descriptions of each hole.

Clearly, Singh will be playing more aggressive in an attempt to guarantee his paycheck from this weekend, but will he be able to outpace Furyk? Well, the greatest stroke change from round to round for either player is 9 strokes by Furyk from the second to the third rounds. A 9 stroke improvement. He regressed back to a 68 in the final round that year, a 4 stroke decline, his worst since 2002. Vijay Singh's greatest improvement since 2002 was 4 strokes, going from a 71 to a 67 after the third round in 2007.

Singh may very well match or better that 4 stroke improvement after shooting a 75, but Furyk has been playing well this year, earning $1.5 million from 11 events this year and it's difficult to see him playing that much worse in the second round.

Sand saves such as this will keep Jim Furyk in the hunt for the lead at The Memorial.

Singh has been recovering from surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and while he seems to be mostly back in full form he has missed four cuts out of 12 events, earning $800,000. While Vijay Singh is one of the best golfers in the world Jim Furyk is right up there and injured or not Furyk has had a much better year on the Tour so far. I do think Furyk will card higher than 67 and Singh will do better than 75, but not by a combined 8 strokes or more.

‡‡‡===жж--__¦Follow their round with PGATour.com's ShotTracker¦__--жж===‡‡‡

Cork City hope to recover from a dreadful loss at Drogheda United.

6)

A victory would see Shamrock Rovers move into a tie with Cork City for second place."

Shamrock Rovers visit Turner's Cross, the home ground of Cork City F.C. in a match that could potentially move them into a tie for second place behind Bohemians in the tables. Cork will be looking to rebound from two consecutive losses in league play, one at home to Bohemians and the other away at last place Drogheda United. Shamrock are riding a 5 match undefeated streak with their latest being a 3-1 win away at Dundalk who lie one place above Drogheda. With that recent victory, and having lost only one match on the road this season, Shamrock Rovers are very confident heading into this one.

Both clubs will face some injury concerns, with Cork City having to do without Joe Gamble (Knee), Robert Mezeckis (Achilles), Davin O’Neill (Ankle), Shane Duggan (Ankle), and Cillian Lordan (suspension). Darragh Maguire and Stephen Rice will face late fitness tests for Shamrock Rovers and Sean Webb will be out indefinitely with a back problem. Joe Gamble, regular substitute for the Irish national team and having appeared in 9 matches for Cork is their only major injury and his absence from midfield may disrupt their ability to transition from defense to offense. Shamrock should see Maguire and Rice fit and that will help them tremendously in this match.

“We’ve been very good away from home and have lost only one game on the road so far this season – so going down to Turner’s Cross holds absolutely no fear for us."
---Shamrock Manager Michael O'Neill

Being at Turner's Cross Cork City are the favorites in this match with their odds at 4/5 to 8/11 (-125 to -140) while Shamrock are being given 3/1 odds or worse. Given these clubs' recent form and overall performances this season I really think Shamrock provide a great value as they should be able to pull off a draw if not win outright. In a low scoring contest Cork City may win 1-0 but Shamrock are one of the better offenses in the Irish Premier ranking 3^rd overall with 21 goals scored in 15 matches. Yes, it is a low scoring league, so a 1-1 draw seems quite likely.

9) The Kansas City Royals take a trip up north to the Rogers Centre to visit the Toronto Blue Jays, bringing with them a 7 game losing streak, a .149 batting average from their last series, and a .234 slugging average to go along with it. The story of the day, of course, is Zack Greinke extending his streak of innings pitched without giving up a home run while going for his 9^th win of the season to tie league leader, Toronto's Roy Halladay.

The Kansas City Royals will attempt to snap their 7 game losing streak today in Toronto.

Greinke hasn't had much success in the past at the Rogers Centre, posting a 1-3 record with a 6.65 ERA during his career. “I haven't really pitched there recently. Last year, I thought I pitched decent, but they got a couple runs in tough situations and it ended up not being good." said Greinke, explaining away his past poor performances against the Blue Jays. Greinke is coming off his worst start of the season, a 7 inning start against the Chicago White Sox in which he gave up 3 earned runs. He had not given up more than 2 earned runs in his previous 10 starts and the performance was still enough to qualify as a quality start though the Royals lost the game 7-4. Greinke struck out 7 batters and walked none. It was his second consecutive game, spanning 16 innings, in which he did not walk a batter.

Facing off against the newly minted ace extraordinaire is hot prospect Ricky Romero. Romero has posted a 5.08 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through 5 starts. He started off the season strong, but has struggled since landing on the disabled list after straining one of his obliques while sneezing. In his last two starts

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5/31 v.BOS
5/26 @BAL

, against Boston and Baltimore, he's pitched 9¹/₃ innings while giving up 7 earned runs from 17 hits while walking 6 batters.

Greinke will try and mow down the Blue Jays, a somewhat tall order at the Rogers Centre.

Romero can whip a towel to work on his mechanics all day long but he will still have to hope the Royals' remain impotent at bat. At .149 one can't help but expect the Royals to hit semi-decently in this game. If Romero continues to walk batters regularly they may not need all that many hits to score runs, but I expect he'll settle down soon enough. As long as he doesn't sneeze too hard before the game he should pitch a decent game. Given Greinke's track record in Toronto that could spell trouble for the Royals, but I expect the two or three runs Romero gives up will be enough to win this game.

11) The Philadelphia Phillies can thank Cole Hamels for their seventh straight win after he pitched a complete game shut out of the Dodgers, trumping Clayton Kershaw's quality effort. The Dodgers can thankfully count on not having to see Hamels again for a while and look forward to a meeting with 46 year old veteran Jamie Moyer. Moyer has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through 10 starts while giving up 14 home runs in only 53¹/₃ innings pitched. Moyer is coming off his best start of the season, against the Washington Nationals where he pitched 6 innings, giving up only 1 earned run from 3 hits. The run came from a Josh Willingham home run. If Moyer's most recent game against the Dodgers is any indication he will not be repeating his performance against the Nationals. Not even close.

Philadelphia seeks their 8^th consecutive victory, and Jamie Moyer the 251^st of his career.

The one hope Philadelphia fans do have is their teams success against left handed pitchers, left handers like Eric Milton. Milton has been pitching great since having his elbow surgically reconstructed, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his three starts, most recently against the Chicago Cubs against whom he gave up 2 earned runs in 4¹/₃ innings. Over his career he has not been nearly as successful against the Phillies' batting order, however. In 69 at bats against Milton the Phillies have hit 5 home runs, batting .319 with a .638 slugging percentage. Players like Ibañez, Victorino, and Utley are all batting over .300 against lefties in general this season. They will need to provide all the run support they possibly can for Moyer in this game.

Overall I'd have to say the Dodgers look like the better pick, especially considering Milton's success in a limited number of innings so far this season. Milton will probably not be able to reach 100 pitches so the Phillies will get a good long look at the Dodgers' bullpen, but that is probably a worse scenario for them than facing Milton for 7 innings. Milton is pitching even better than he did before the surgery and so a return back to his career averages would seem likely, especially against Philadelphia. If Moyer can pitch even half-way decently tonight and give up at most 4 or 5 earned runs I think Philadelphia has a good chance to win.

June 4th, 2009 Picks

Awww hell, 0-1-0 today with Bay's single being enough to sink me and my streak. Lot's of golf and a couple tennis props on the board tomorrow so I'm hoping for an 11-4-0 day at worst.
UPDATE: In an attempt to get all the previews tomorrow up before the first matchup of the day starts, and to pick more damn winners, the evening previews for tonight will be a bit thin. On the plus side, four straight losers this morning should lead to a nice run of winners this evening.

Recaps

Bay Single And Beckett's 2-Hitter Enough To Sink Cabrera, Tigers
Boston Red Sox 10 - 5 Detroit Tigers

Called Bay having a poor game 100%, one single for him, but Beckett was awesome, 7²/₃ innings and only 2 hits allowed! Phenomenal stuff there. Cabrera had a chance even then, but his one hit off a reliever was a weak grounder that would have been an out if Lowell hadn't mishandled it. From the article: "Beckett (6-2) gave up a single to Curtis Granderson with two outs in the seventh to end the no-hit bid. He retired 18 straight after walking Placido Polanco with one out in the first until he walked Magglio Ordonez with one out in the seventh. Miguel Cabrera hit a fly to the warning track in right-center before Granderson singled to right." Read more....

Picks click on bold posts to scroll directly to them
1) Dinara Safina vs. Dominika Cibulkova - 17 games or fewer
2) Aaron Baddeley vs. Johnson Wagner - Baddeley cards more birdies on the front 9
3) Samantha Stosur vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2 sets
4) New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates - New York
5) Ernie Els or Zach Johnson vs. Tiger Woods - Els or Johnson card a lower 1^st round score
6) Kenny Perry's Total Par 5's Score: 18 strokes or fewer vs. 19 strokes or more - 18 strokes or fewer
7) Municipal @ Suchitepequez - Municipal win or draw
8) Will Randy Johnson Get Win Number 300 Today: Yes or No - No
9) Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves - Chicago
10) San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals - Washington
11) New York Red Bulls @ DC United - New York win or draw
12) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Detroit
13) Dwight Howard vs. Kobe Bryant - Bryant pts. and reb.
14) Toronto Nationals @ Washington Bayhawks - Toronto
15) Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia

Analysis
1) Dinara Safina and Dominika Cibulkova have each waltzed through to the semi-finals at Roland Garros for the most part. Safina lost her first set in the quarterfinals to Victoria Azarenka, having lost only 5 games up to that point, and has won 61 games with 17 losses including the match with Azarenka. Cibulkova lost her only set in the first round, to #28 Alona Bondarenko and has won 62 games with 29 losses to reach the semi-finals.

Match Stats
	Safina	Cibulkova
1st Serve %	67.2%	60.6%
1st Serve Won %	73.6%	65.4%
2nd Serve Win %	43.5%	50.8%
Receiving Win %	55.4%	52.6%
Unforced Errors	79	110
Data through all 5 rounds of play

The table at the left displays some of that dominance with each player winning over 50% of their points while receiving. Safina has been a bit better, however, with over ²/₃ of her first serves being in play and winning over 70% of those services compared to Cibulkova who has faulted on nearly 40% of her first services and winning just 65% of those put in play. Safina has also committed fewer errors than Cibulkova, though both players have more than one match with over 20 errors with Cibulkova committing 45 errors in her first round match.

The official Roland Garros site has a nice match analysis section covering this match. They note Safina has had a weak mental game in the past which has been more or less mastered thanks to a new coach. I think she shows a little bit of those mental lapses remaining however, with only 45% of her 2nd services converted into points. They note Safina is much bigger and more powerful, but Cibulkova is very fast paced. Safina is a huge favorite to win this match and from their head to head match ups one can see why. They have met twice, both last year and on hard court, with Safina winning both times in straight sets. One match took 15 games to complete and the other match took 19 games. The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour site also has a brief preview where they also note Cibulkova is simply outmatched in terms of height, power, and shots.

Dinara Safina has been here before, but will her advantages in strength, height, and experience be enough to overcome the feisty 20 year old Slovak?

Overall I think Cibulkova has been playing tremendously especially in her domination of Maria Sharapova, but that may have been due to fatigue setting in on the unfit Sharapova. Safina has been just as dominant, with her only set loss coming to #9 ranked Azarenka, someone who I would favor to beat Cibulkova, possibly in straight sets. Cibulkova is only 20 years old and has never progressed this far in a Grand Slam tournament. She may have nothing to play for with nobody expecting her to win, but I think nerves may set in if she wins a game or two as she starts to think "what-if". Of course it could work the opposite way, with Safina losing a game, then another, and a third with frustration overcoming her, but I think she would grit her teeth and up her level of play after losing the first game. Cibulkova has just not been as good as Safina even in her straight set victories and I think it will be enough for Safina to win the match quickly and efficiently. Keep in mind, however, Cibulkova only has to win 6 games total to send this over 18 matches.

Ξ Ξ Ξ==__|| Watch the match live from UStream ||== Ξ Ξ Ξ

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Samantha Stosur has an entire continent rooting for her. Kuznetsova has her game.

3) Samantha Stosur and Svetlana Kuznetsova have eached faced their share of challenges in this tournament having been taken to three sets in earlier rounds of the tournament. Most recently Stosur had a difficult straight sets victory over Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-3 while Kuznetsova advanced through the quarterfinals past Serena Williams in a marathan 7⁷-6³ 5-7 7-5 match.

Head to head these two do not have much experience with their only match being in 2004, a straight sets victory for Kuznetsova on hard court. Looking at their matches on clay this year on the WTA Tour one can see that Stosur winning 4 matches and losing 1 in straight sets, and winning 2 matches and losing 2 in three sets. Kuznetsova has been more dominant on the clay surface with 10 matches won and 2 lost in straight sets to go with 5 matches won and 1 lost in three sets. Overall then these two have played 20 matches decided in straight sets and 7 matches decided in three sets on clay surfaces this year. Kuznetsova defeated Dinara Safina in straight sets earlier this year and I think she may be able to dispatch Stosur in the same fashion.

8) Randy Johnson faces an historic milestone tonight as he looks to get his 300^th career win in the first game of a doubleheader against the Washington Nationals. Washington will be starting Jordan Zimmerman, who was 1 going on 2 years old, when Johnson threw his first pitch in the Majors.

Randy Johnson pitching against Atlanta, his 299^th win. Can he repeat that success today?

For Randy Johnson to pick up the win he needs to pitch at least 5 innings, the Giants must have the lead when he is relieved, and the Giants must keep that lead for the rest of the game. Jordan Zimmerman does have a tendency to give up runs early in the game, but the Nationals offense bails him out quite a bit and his record for the season is 2-2. The last time Zimmerman pitched against the Giants San Francisco had Matt Cain pitching. The Nationals came back to tie the game before Cain was relieved in the 8^th inning and both starting pitchers ended up with a 'No Decision'. I think something very similar to that could end up happening in today's game.

14 ) OK, here's the deal. This game is being played as we speak. Toronto is currently leading 13-11 after the third quarter. It doesn't lock until it is replayed on ESPN2 later tonight. By that time the winner should be just about decided so if you like you can take the gimmie on this one after checking out the final score.

June 3rd, 2009 Picks

Wow, well 2-0-0 today with Gonzalez and Hawpe, but man were my picks shitty today overall. I blame it on g++ not giving me the right error codes.... Tomorrow will be a much better day, especially with some props to choose from. And my condolences to anyone who picked the Cubs tonight. Game over but for Soto dropping a wild pitch.

Recaps

Gonzalez Passes By Murray In 4 Sets 6-3 3-6 6-0 6-4

"One set all therefore – had Murray weathered the storm? Would Gonzalez be forced to play more cagily? Not a bit of it. The third set saw Murray blown off court 6-0 as Gonzalez hit a raft of forehand winners – 24 of them from the baseline alone throughout the match – and then deciding to dust off his slice, drop and cross-court play as he took the set on a wave of confidence. Murray had no answer to this combination of power and variation, his tennis looking terribly one-dimensional in comparison." Read more....

Carlos Lee 0-for-4, Hawpe With Double, Astros Win Anyways 3-2 (in 11)

Felipe Paulino was dominant early, striking out five of the first 10 batters he faced. But the Rockies took a 2-0 lead in the fourth on back-to-back doubles by Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe and an RBI single by Seth Smith. Read more....

Picks click on bold posts to scroll directly to them
1) Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Serena Williams - Kuznetsova
2) Roger Federer vs. Gael Monfils - 39 games or fewer
3) Netherlands U20 @ Argentina U20 - Netherlands U20 win or draw
4) Jason Bay vs. Miguel Cabrera - Cabrera records more total bases
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays - Los Angeles
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Florida Marlins - Florida
7) Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros - Houston
8) Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
9) Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - Cincinnati
10) United States @ Costa Rica - United States win
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres - Philadelphia
12) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore
13) Will Ichiro Suzuki Extend His Hit Streak To 27 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes

Analysis
1) Ended up with too much to do, but basically had Kuznetsova on here because she's committed fewer errors and has won a greater proportion of her service and receiving points.

4) The Detroit Tigers host the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park as they attempt to stay on the winning side of the series after dropping the first game 5-1 yesterday. Boston will start a red hot Josh Beckett to help them continue making up ground on the AL East leading New York Yankees. Beckett has put together three lights out starts5/28 @MIN - 3H, 1ER, 1HR
5/23 v.NYM - 5H, 0ER, 0HR
5/16 @TB - 4H, 2ER, 1HR, allowing no more than 5 hits or 2 earned runs against Minnesota, the Mets, or Seattle. He will be facing off against Armando Galarraga who has been struggling a bit, giving up 20 hits and 5 home runs in his last 3 starts5/28 @BAL - 10H, 3ER, 2HR
5/23 v.COL - 6H, 4ER, 2HR
4/17 v.OAK - 4H, 5ER, 1HR. In one of those starts, against Oakland, he pitched for just ²/₃ of one inning, throwing 41 pitches and giving up 5 earned runs form 4 hits.

Pitching Statistics
	Beckett	Galarraga
HIP	1.02	1.09
IP/HR	10.4	4.9
	BOS blpn	DET blpn
HIP	0.84	0.94
IP/HR	13.3	9.1
HIP - hits per inning pitched

Looking at the table to the left one can see that Beckett and Galarraga give up hits at around the same rate but that Galaragga gives up home runs at twice the rate Beckett does. One can also see that the Boston bullpen gives up hits and home runs less often than Detroit's.

So far this season Jason Bay is batting .286 with a .632 slugging percentage, for an average of 2.21 total bases per hit. 57.7% (30 of 52) of his hits are extra base hits and he has 16 home runs for the season. Cabrera is batting .358 with a .578 slugging percentage, for an average of 1.61 total bases per hit. He has 46 singles this season with 21 extra base hits, 10 of them being home runs meaning he has hit for extra bases on 31.3% of his hits. Last season Cabrera had more home runs than Bay (37 to 31) and hit for extra bases 41.7% of the time while Bay had an extra base hit 42.4% of the time. I think Cabrera is due to hit some doubles and home runs, while Jason Bay is more likely to get singles for a period of time in the near future.

Click above for a closer look. Notice how Bay is at the peak of a hot streak while Cabrera appears to be exiting a slump.

Clicking on the chart to the side one can see how many total bases each player has had on a game-by-game basis, and how their 3 game average has evolved through the season. Each player has gone through slumps and hot streaks this season and that is seen in the 3 game average which tends to undulate up and down. Interestingly, it appears that Cabrera is in a slump at the same time Bay is on a hot streak, and vice versa. The game-by-game average fluctuates even more severly, with a 6 total bases game followed by one with zero total bases regularly. Right now it looks as if Jason Bay is at the peak of a hot streak, having hit a home run in his two previous games, and is about to move into a slump. Cabrera has been in a slump and looks to be moving on to a hot streak.

The graph below shows how many games each player has this season recording a specific number of total bases. One can see Bay has 7 more games with zero total bases than Cabrera and that in those games Cabrera has mainly had one or two total bases. Bay has 5 more games with 3 or more total bases. It looks like Jason Bay tends to either hit a home run, a home run and another hit, a double and a single, two doubles, or no hits at all, whereas Cabrera has many games with one single or one double. Considering Jason Bay has had a home run in three or more consecutive games only once in his 6 year career I think he's more likely to end up with zero total bases in this game than Cabrera. I also think Cabrera is overdue to hit some doubles and home runs. The pitching matchups favor Bay in this one greatly, however, so one of the straight up MLB picks may be a better option on this one.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers have been swept in a series once this season, a little over a week ago to the Minnesota Twins. They will attempt to avoid that fate at Land Shark Stadium when they play the Florida Marlins, a team they swept earlier this season. They will have to do it against Sean West who has recorded a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 innings of Major league play after struggling some with AA Jacksonville

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West Seeks First Win
West's AA Stats

where he gave up 9 home runs in 42²/₃ innings. Fortunately for West, or perhaps not, the Brewers have had some difficulty with the long ball in their past three games, with a .340 slugging average and .258 batting average en route to scoring 12 runs.

Can the Florida Marlins sweep the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers?

The Marlins, despite a couple of huge home runs in their last game, have also not been hitting hard the past few games, slugging .393 and batting .299, with many singles being hit. Those slugging numbers are actually a bit above the Marlins' season average of .385, partially thanks to the return of Hanley Ramirez to the lineup. They will try and keep up those numbers against Braden Looper tonight. Looper has been above average in consistency

Braden Loopers Starts
CHC	CIN	@PHI	PIT	ARI	@CIN	FLA	@STL	@MIN	CIN
	GSc: 70+;		GSc: 50-69;		GSc: 40-49;		GSc: 16-39;		GSc:<15

this season with 6 of 10 quality starts, and two non-quality starts being only mediocre rather than poor. He did get touched up a bit in his last start against the Marlins, giving up 5 earned runs, but the Brewers took the game 8-6.

22 year old Sean West will look to continue his Major league success and pick up his first win against the Milwaukee tonight.

Overall the Brewers have the stronger bullpen in terms of WHIP and ERA, and it will only be stronger with the return of Mark DiFelice for today's game. I think Florida only wins this game if Sean West receives the run support that was lacking his last two times out because I don't see Florida making an 8^th or 9^th inning come back against the Brewers. Milwaukee may or may not improve offensively in this game, but against West I can see them continuing their slump so a few runs of support for West will go a long way.

12)	The Orioles are in a serious slump offensively, batting .145 and scoring 3 runs in their last three games.

Jason Vargas will take to the mound tonight for the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field and try to defend a three game homestand by taking two of three against the Baltimore Orioles. Vargas has posted an incredible 1.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 5 starts and 2 relief efforts encompassing 27¹/₃ innings this season. His last start, against the Los Angeles Angels was one of his worst of the season as he gave up 2 earned runs from 4 hits, including a home run. He had given up no more than 1 earned run in each of his previous 4 starts. He may be facing his greatest challenge of the season tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, though they may not look like much a threat at the moment. In their past three games they have a woeful .154 batting average and an even worse .209 slugging average. The Orioles have blamed some of that on the competition they've faced recently, but I think they've also simply hit a natural slump in the season, and one they are sure to break out of with a vengeance, though I'm sure they're not happy about facing Vargas.

"It's been a tough week, we faced Detroit, who throws some exceptional guys, starters and guys coming out of the pen throwing 100 [mph]. Then you come in here and [Jarrod] Washburn has been throwing well. He's been shutting lefties down. And when Bedard is on his game, he's tough."
--Orioles cleanup batter Aubrey Huff

The Orioles will start 23 year old rookie Brad Bergesen who started the season with the AAA Nofolk Tide. He got off to a rocky start this season, posting a 4.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 8 starts, before putting in a stellar performance against Detroit in his last start. Baltimore will desperately need him to cool off a red hot Seattle team which is batting .324 with a .569 slugging average in their last three games, and that's including this 2 hit stinker the other night.

With Jason Vargas on the mound the Seattle Mariners always have a chance to win.

I think Seattle is likely to cool off some, after all, that 2 hit game was sandwiched in between games with 15 and 16 hits and against a pitcher with a 1.70 WHIP. Bergesen showed what he can do in 8 innings against Detroit and I expect the Orioles will see more of that in the future. If players like Aubrey Huff, Pie, Reimolds, Luke Scott, and especially rookie sensation Matt Wieters can finally break out of their slump I think they could definitely hand Vargas his first poor start of the season. In the end I don't see the Mariners providing much run support, and the Orioles scoring at least two off of Vargas. Unless the Mariners can pull another clutch performance with a multi-run homer in the 8^th or 9^th inning I like the Orioles to win this game. To get an idea of how likely that may be the Orioles' bullpen has combined to allow a home run every 7 innings they've pitched and have a 1.49 WHIP.

June 2nd, 2009 Picks

Sorry folks but the free ride is over and the streams have been taken down. Enjoy the scoreboards and widghts!

Yarrr, 1-1-0 today with Gael Monfils knocking Andy Roddick around and that putz J.J. Putz fucking up big time to blow a 2 run lead. Ah well, que sera, sera.

Recaps

Gael Monfils def. Andy Roddick (6-4 6-2 6-3); Advances To Quarterfinals

Gael Monfils took his match against Andy Roddick in straight sets after a late start forced the match to be played in dusk lighting. Roddick complained to the side judge at one point in the match that he could not see the ball properly. Afterwards Roddick came to terms with the decision to play on, saying the conditions were the same for both players and that Monfils simply served bigger at the right times. Gael Monfils will move on to the quarterfinals to take on Swissman Roger Federer in his attempt to claim his first Grand Slam title.

Pittsburgh Pirates 8 - 5 New York Mets

The New York Mets had a small flurry of scoring in the 2^nd and 3^rd innings neutralized by a two RBI triple by Andy LaRoche in the 4^th inning and were nearly able to hold on to the two run lead. In the end the New York Mets never scored again and the Pirates reeled off four consecutive singles in the 8^th inning on their way to 5 runs and an 8-5 lead. It was only the second time this season the Pirates had come from behind after the 7^th inning to win a game as well as only the second time the Mets had lost such a lead after the 7^th. And so on to the picks.

1) Andy Murray vs. Fernando Gonzalez - Gonzalez
2) Dominika Cibulkova vs. Maria Sharapova - Sharapova
3) Turkey (v. Azerbaijan) vs. Germany (@ United Arab Emirates) - Germany win margin
4) Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves - Chicago
5) Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
6) Los Angeles Angels hits off Halladay vs. Roy Halladay strikeouts - Angels hits off Halladay
7) Florida vs. Washington - Florida
8) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Detroit
9) Brad Hawpe vs. Carlos Lee - Hawpe records more total bases
10) Earned Runs Allowed by Jake Peavy: 3 runs or less vs. 4 runs or more - 3 runs or less
11) Will Ichiro Suzuki Extend His Hit Streak To 26 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes
12) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles

Analysis
1) (#3) Andy Murray and (#12) Fernando Gonzalez meet in the quarterfinals of the 2009 French Open today in a highly anticipated match between two players who have mostly rolled through their competition.

2009 French Open Stats
	Murray	Gonzalez
1st Serve %	64.1%	64.6%
1st Serve Win %	73.8%	85.7%
2nd Serve Win %	50.3%	70.8%
Receiving Win %	47.1%	44.5%
Unforced Errors	85	76
Games Lost	51	37
Data over rounds 1 through 4

Both players are putting ²/₃ of their first serves into play with Murray winning 74% of his first serve points and Gonzalez winning 86% of them. Overall Gonzalez has won an impressive 80% of his service points with Murray winning 64% of his service points facing slightly tougher competition.

Murray is coming off one of his more impressive clay court matches, defeating #13 Marin Cilic in straight sets 7-5 7-6(7-4) 6-1. He was pushed to the limit early on, but never stopped giving up and played with great composure, committing only 14 errors while racking up 10 aces. "I'm playing well, I mean, you don't get to the quarters of the French not playing good clay-court tennis." said Murray after the match. Fernando Gonzalez fairly waltzed through his foruth round match as he overpowered #33 Victor Hanescu 6-2 6-4 6-2 to reach the quarterfinals.

Murray gives the crazy eye to Gonzalez, loses a service point, and chides those who doubt he will win the match.

Murray and Gonzalez have only faced one another twice in their careers, and never on clay. Both men respect the challenge the other presents and both are feeling very confident in their present play. "I think Murray is No. 3, and he deserves it, I can tell you, so it's going to be a difficult match." said Gonzalez after his fourth round victory.

I think it will be a very exciting match, but once again a player who has had more success on clay will triumph in this one. It will be difficult for Murray to maintain his composure if he is down a set after losing 7-6(7-5) rather than up a set won in that manner and it has been that composure, that lack of committing errors that has helped him advance this far. Gonzalez has been dominant holding serve through four rounds and I think that could be the difference here.

@@__==--^^Click here to watch the 2009 French Open live^^--==__@@

2) Maria Sharapova continues her remarkable comeback from a rotator cuff tear she had been playing through for three months in 2008. She took the rest of the year off along with the first part of 2009 to recover playing in only one tournament, at Warsaw, where she lost in the quarterfinals.

Cibulkova has a powerful shot, but Sharapova might be the more aggressive of the two.

She has been in superb form here at the French Open having already defeated #11 Nadia Petrova in the second round and #25 Na Li in the fourth round to reach her quarterfinal match with #20 Dominika Cibulkova. Cibulkova has been even more dominant in her march to the quarters losing only one set, in the first round, to #28 Alona Bondarenko. The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour site contains a a nice preview of the match. They note that Cibulkova has also missed playing time this year with a hip adductor strain and that she seems surprised to have been this successful in the French Open.

The two have played twice in the past, both times on clay court, and both in 2008. Sharapova won both matches, but Cibulkova took it to three sets in one and forced a tie break in the other. I think Cibulkova has a good chance to win in this match, but she may be overwhelmed by a fan favorite in Sharapova who is on her way to regaining a top 10 ranking by the end of the year.

@@__==--^^Click here to watch the 2009 French Open live^^--==__@@

4) Before the season started the Chicago Cubs were favorites to win the NL Central for a third straight year, but a slew of injuries have left the Cubs 4¹/₂, behind Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Cincinnati. If not for their starting pitching, 2^nd best ERA in the division, they may have found themselves trailing even - *gasp* - Pittsburgh. Chicago will start Randy Wells tonight who has an impressive 1.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three Major league starts

CHC 1 - 2 LAD(L)
CHC 1 - 3 SD(L)
CHC 5 - 4 HOU(W)

.

"It's that middle ground where you have to be aggressive but you can't be out of control,.... You watch him and he's very much in control with his body. You don't see him overthrow. When you get that, that's why you see consistent command." --Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly on Randy Wells' pitching style

He will be facing an Atlanta Braves team that is batting .305 and slugging .475 in their last three games, scoring 21 runs in that span.

Atlanta is praying that recent burst is a sign of things to come and not just a result of poor pitches being thrown their way. Considering they rank last in the National League in stolen bases and next to last in OPS and have two outfielders rounding out the bottom five in OPS the latter seems more likely.

In that case the Braves will rely on 33 year old rookie Kenshin Kawakami to put in another quality start. Kawakami is coming off a mundane performance against the San Francisco Giants where he gave up 3 earned runs from 9 hits in 5²/₃ innings. He is certainly capable of better, as when he held the Blue Jays scoreless for 8 innings, giving up 3 hits while striking out 7 batters.

Randy Wells (1.80 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0-2 record) seeks his first win.

Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher before so it is difficult to say whether there will be a poor matchup there, but as far as who will have a better start I favor Wells who has been extremely consistent in the Majors and the minors this year. Both teams are hitting above average in their previous series' so it would not be surprising to see a pitchers duel in this game making it difficult for either team to secure a win. Chipper Jones is suffering from some bunions on his right foot and may rest for this game, which would hinder the Braves' chances, but even if he does play his limited mobility could reduce the effectiveness of Atlanta's defense on some hits. With strong bullpens I favor the team whose pitcher stumbles least and as I said before I think it will be Wells. Of course, he has to have a bad start eventually.

6) The Los Angeles Angels rank 2^nd in the Majors and 1^st in the American League in terms of fewest strikeouts recorded with 287 in 49 games. They are also 5^th in the Majors in batting average at .276 for the season. Looking at the graph below one can see the Angels have had more batters get a hit off of the starting pitcher than be struck out by him in 5 out of 49 games this season. Those pitchers were Greinke and Davies of the Royals, Bedard(&mult;2) from the Mariners, and Gavin Floyd of the White Sox. Since Vlad Guerrero returned to the lineup they seem to have struggled a bit, averaging only 5 hits per game off the starting pitcher. Guerrero himself started off slow and is batting .240 since his return, but the Angels are probably just experiencing a natural slump in production that may or may not continue into this game.

In one previous game this season Halladay struck out 6 Angels batters while giving up 6 hits. Vlad Guerrero was not in the lineup.

Looking at Roy Halladay's numbers against the Angels' current roster it appears this should be a very close matchup. Halladay has given up 49 hits and struck out 44 in 227 at bats against them. The player most likely to whiff on a Halladay toss has been Bobby Abreu, with 12 strikeouts in 34 at bats and only 6 hits. The biggest plus for the Angels has been Howie Kendrick who is batting .400 in 10 at bats with only 1 strikeout. Whatever lineup the Angels field for this game it should be very close. With their batting numbers low for the past 6 games I might give the advantage to Halladay, but the Angels' lack of strikeouts all season long make me think they will have one more hit or push at worst.

9) Looking at the graph below one can see that last season Carlos Lee would have been a runaway favorite to have more total bases than Brad Hawpe in any given game. Hawpe was getting zero hits in over a third of his games while Lee went '0'-fer in under a quarter of his. This season Lee has not been able to avoid going hitless as reliably, with at least one hit in 36 of 50 games, while Hawpe has improved his hitting drastically, reaching base safely in 33 of 45 games.

Pitching Stats
	Jiminez	Paulino
HIP	1.01	1.39
SlgAg	.320	.882
	COL blpn	HOU blpn
HIP	1.23	1.06
HRIP	0.11	0.15
HIP - Hits per Inning Pitched (season);
blpn - bullpen; SlgAg - Slg. Avg.(against opponent)

Hawpe has also increased the number of games he has with 2 or 3 total bases from around 22% last season to 31% this season. Carlos Lee has 2 or 3 total bases in around 24% of his games this season, finishing games with one single, or a home run, more often than Hawpe has. A quick comparison of Hawpe's stats with Carlos Lee's shows Hawpe is having the better season overall in terms of hits and total bases.

As far as the pitching matchups go the Rockies are starting Ubaldo Jiminez who has a 1.01 HIP (hits per inning pitched) this season. In 4 at bats against Lee he has given up one single. The Houston Astros are starting Felipe Paulino whose HIP this season is at 1.39, and who has given up a double and a single in two at bats against Hawpe. Both bullpens give up home runs at a higher than average rate for the Majors, and Colorado's gives up more hits. With the batters likely to have more at bats against the starting pitchers however, I'll take Paulino's higher HIP to favor Hawpe's chances more.

11) Ichiro Suzuki will get most of his at bats in this game against David Hernandez. Hernandez gave up 5 hits in 5²/₃ innings in his first ever Major league start and has been devouring the minor leagues, with a 1.06 WHIP in 8 starts for AAA Norfolk. Ichiro is batting .352 for the season, however, and with 4 at bats assured (he's not one to intentionally walk) those are good odds he gets a hit.

June 1st, 2009 Picks

1-2-0... Just one of those days where I managed to pick a few losers out of the winners after getting lucky in the morning. Justin Rose got me back on track, but then I took Tim Clark to win the tournament rather than either the Twins, the Red Sox, or the Angels, or even Jimmie Johnson. A Sean Marshall 1^st inning meltdown ended the day on a down note for me. I've been experimenting with various elements for this blog and I've discovered some compatibility issues with Google Chrome (and thus with Safari and probably iPod/iPhone browsers as well). I'm trying to fix them, but if something isn't rendering properly for you on this page please leave a comment and I'll fix that problem first thing.

Recaps

Justin Rose 34, John Rollins 35 (Front 9 Scores)

J. Rose/J. Rollins - Front 9 Scorecards - Colonial CC
	1/5	2/4	3/4	4/3	5/4	6/4	7/4	8/3	9/4	OUT/35
J. Rose	4	4	4	3	4	5	4	2	4	34
J. Rollins	4	4	4	3	6	3	4	3	4	35
				Birdie		Par		Bogey		2+ Bogey

Justin Rose took a two stroke lead when Rollins double bogeyed the par-4 #5 but got them both back with a birdie on #6 and a bogey by Rose on the same. Rose hit a tremendous tee shot to score birdie on the 8^th hole and that was the difference in this matchup.

Stricker Defeats Clark, Marino On Second Playoff Hole At Colonial CC

Tim Clark clung to a one to two stroke lead for the entire final round, and with one hole remaining he retained that one stroke lead on playing partner Steve Marino. Clark hit a poor tee shot and was unable to scramble for par dropping him back into a tie with Marino and Steve Stricker. Stricker had chipped in for birdie on #17 and it ended up being the shot that entered him into the playoff. Tim Clark missed a 7 foot putt on the first playoff hole which would have won it and then hit his tee shot on the par-3 17^th right at the hole. His shot was so on target that it bounced off the flag pole, rolling to about 23 feet away. Stricker hit his tee shot within four feet and sunk his putt for the birdie and the win.

Los Angeles Dodgers 8 - 2 Chicago Cubs

Sean Marshall gave up five consecutive singles to lead off the 1^st inning and the Chicago Cubs were never able to recover from the 5 run deficit. Aside from that debacle the Dodgers outscored the Cubs 3-2 to win the game 8-2 and split the series at Wrigley field two games apiece. And so on to the picks.

1) Andy Roddick vs. Gael Monfils - Monfils
2) Odd Grenland @ Molde FK - Odd Grenland win or draw
3) South Carolina vs. East Carolina - South Carolina
4) New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates - New York
5) New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
6) Washington vs. Florida - Florida
7) Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - Cincinnati
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore

Analysis
1) Andy Roddick meets French favorite Gael Monfils in the 4^th round of the French Open. Third round results are discussed here. Roddick has advanced through the first three rounds without losing a set while Monfils lost his first set on Saturday to world 26^th ranked player Jurgen Melzer.

Roddick has the strength and skill to win. Monfils has the strength, skill, and acrobatics to.

Roddick has never made it through the second round in 8 previous entries into the French Open but his improved training over the off-season, including slimming down and adding more shots to his repertoire have allowed him to be more successful on the clay surface than ever before. Monfils made it through to the semi-finals last year so expectations are high despite his knee problems due to ongoing growing pains this year. He has not been able to play much this season with his last ATP appearance coming at the end of March.

Head to head Roddick and Monfils have split their meetings, 3 apiece, with Roddick winning both meetings this year and Monfils winning both of their matches on clay. The Roland Garros site contains a nice preview of the match. Both players appear to be in excellent form, with Monfils not yet showing signs of the pain in his knees, leaping, diving, and sliding in the ways that earned him the moniker "The Sliderman". Oddsmakers have Monfils as the favorite in this match, but with the way Roddick has been playing he will certainly have a shot but Monfils should prove too skilled on clay to go down today.

Ξ Ξ Ξ==__|| Watch the match live from UStream ||== Ξ Ξ Ξ

Click on image if embedded stream fails

2) World Football Net is a very nice place to look for information on this match. One can see immediately that Molde FK and Odd Grenland are tied in the tables with 18 points apiece. Clicking on the home and away tables to the left shows that Molde FK are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of home performance, while Odd Grenland are one of only three teams to have yet to win a match outright on the road. Head to head Molde FK has been fairly dominant at Aker Stadium against Odd Grenland, with a 6-1-1 record through the clubs' histories. Their last match was in 2006 which Molde FK won 2-0.

Odd Grenland visit Aker Stadium as they attempt to make a push for second place in the Tippeligaen.

Only two players, Morten Fevang and Svindal Larsen remain from that Odd team.

Odd Grenland's homepage has a terrific preview of the match against Molde FK, but unfortunately it's only in Norwegian. Essentially it notes that Odd Grenland will welcome back Tommy Svindal Larsen and Jacob Sørensen at midfield, but will be without Alex Valencia up front and Torjus Hansèn on defense who picked up knocks in their last match, in Cup play. They will likely start 19 year old phenom Fredrik Semb on defense to give him some match experience. Worth noting are that Odd Grenland midfielders Morten Fevang and Simen Brenne play for the Norwegian national team, and equally worth noting is that team is in last place in their World Cup qualifier group, earning 2 points from 3 matches.

Information on Molde FK is a bit harder to come by though there are some goals scored by minute stats. Molde FK appear to score the majority of their goals in the five minutes before and after half time. In their last five matches they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses with their lone home win of the season coming against FK Bodø/Glimt in March.

Possible starting XI's
Molde FK: (3-4-3) Lillebakk -- Vatshaug, Steen, Forren -- Rindarøy, Hoseth, Thioune, Skjølsvik -- Moström, Mame Diouf, Pape Diouf
Odd Grenland: (4-3-3): Arason -- Hagen, Fevang, Semb, Rambekk -- Storbæk, S. Larsen, Brenne -- Sørensen, Kovacs, Bentley

||--~~==Follow the match with live ticker==~~--||

4) The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of only two teams the New York Mets have swept this season, the other being the Washington Nationals. Both of those sweeps this season occured at home at Citi Field.

The Mets try and carry their success with them to PNC Park.

Today the Mets will travel to PNC Park sporting an 11-12 away record this season. They've been successful at PNC, winning most of their games there the past few years, but have had some hard to take losses with a late lead. Livan Hernandez will be starting on the mound for the Mets today. Hernandez has come on strong at the end of May pitching a complete game against Washington while allowing only 1 earned run from 9 hits and holding the Dodgers to 1 earned run in 7 innings at Dodger Stadium. He will need to keep up with those kinds of performances for the Mets to succeed on the road, especially considering all the injuries the Mets have had to deal with, the latest being to outfielder Angel Pagan who tweaked his groin in the series against Florida over the weekend. He was playing for the injured Carlos Beltran who, coincidentally, is expected back for today's game against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh will start right-hander Ian Snell in a rematch of the starting pitchers from the May 10^th game at Citi Field in which the Mets won 8-4. Snell and Hernandez both had decent outings, giving up three and two runs in 6 innings, respectively. It was Pittsburgh's bullpen who put the Pirates out of it, a fact they are well aware of. Pittsburgh's bullpen has improved since then, but Ian Snell has not, increasing his ERA to 5.43 and WHIP to 1.58 after giving up 6 earned runs from 8 hits in 5 innings to the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park. Snell also walked 4 batters while striking out the same number.

Livan Hernandez pumps his fist after throwing his first complete game of the season last week against Washington.

The Mets had some problems with their offense against Florida, batting .212 with a .303 slugging average, scoring only 8 runs in the series. It was still good enough to take 2 of the 3 games with their bullpen holding slim leads in both victories. Although Snell has been fairly successful in limiting the Mets' offense, even with Reyes and Delgado in the lineup, I think New York will turn things around some offensively. As long as Hernandez can maintain his form and put in a quality start the Mets should be able to take a small lead or at least stay close. I do think Pittsburgh's bullpen is performing better now than they did three weeks ago so they may be able to hold off New York from 2 or 3 runs down. If the Mets have the lead then New York's bullpen, tops in the league, should clinch the victory for the Mets. Especially considering Pittsburgh is 1-21 this season in games in which they are trailing after 7 innings.


7) The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium tonight in a matchup of NL Central hopefuls. The Milwaukee Brewers currently hold a one game lead over St. Louis with the Reds lurking 2¹/₂ games further back. St. Louis will start Todd Wellemeyer, who has a 5.02 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 10 starts this season, hardly all-star numbers. His numbers were even worse a week and a half ago before he pitched two quality startsSTL 3 - 2 MIL(W)
STL 5 - 0 KC(W) against Kansas City and at Milwaukee. Wellemeyer has not earned that high ERA and WHIP by stringing together multiple quality starts and another one today would be the first time he has had three in a row all season.

Cincinnati will have to hope they can keep Wellemeyer from reaching that mark without the help of slugger Joey Votto who has been placed on the disabled list with an inner ear infection and to deal with personal issues. The loss of Votto will hurt the Reds' offense, but they have had to make do without him quite a bit recently, managing a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

Edinson Volquez looks to outduel a streaking Todd Wellemeyer after returning from the disabled list.

As a team the Reds are batting only .219 in their last three games but have made up for that with a .409 slugging average, earning nearly two total bases with every hit. With Wellemeyer's 5.5 K/9 and low ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.63), coupled with a fairly high walk rate that could spell trouble if say he walks a batter, gives up a sacrifice fly, then a double to drive a run home.

Cincinnati will welcome back Edinson Volquez who is returning from a stint on the disabled list due to back spasms. Volquez struggled the last time he faced the Cardinals giving up 7 earned runs in 6²/₃ from just 6 hits though he did record 8 strikeouts. Was he feeling those spasms even in that game? How he performs in his return from injury will be pivotal for the Reds' chances at victory tonight. Back spasms are a tricky ailment with a subconscious component - if they flare up on him tonight he may struggle again. Additionally, the Cardinals are back to hitting well again now that Ryan Ludwick and Ricky Ankiel have rejoined the team. In their last three games the Cardinals are batting .274 with a .409 slugging average, not too far off of their season averages. If they can get Brian Barden back to his season opening form it could be a very long 5 innings for Volquez.

Overall I think the 25 year old Volquez will heal nicely and have a strong start against a Cardinals though he will probably still give up 2 to 4 runs in 6 innings. That should be good enough against Wellemeyer who I can see being shelled by the Reds' lineup even without Votto. Both teams have strong bullpens so it will be important for both pitchers to start off strong. I think Volquez will have the stronger start and the Reds will pull away early in this game.

9) The Baltimore Orioles visit Safeco Field to take on the Seattle Mariners who are enjoying their best offensive production to date this season. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.75 runs in their last four games, going 3-1 in that stretch. They're also batting over .300 and slugging over .500 in that stretch, well above their season long numbers of .258 batting and .387 slugging. Part of that success, according to manager Dan Wakamatsu, is finding the right lineup and swinging at the right pitches.

Baltimore looks to rediscover the offense that's been key to their recent success.

Seattle will try to maintain that success at Safeco against the Orioles' Rich Hill. Hill has recorded a 6.14 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his 3 major league starts. The bulk of his runs were given up in his last start, against Toronto, where he conceded 6 runs on 6 hits in just 3¹/₃ innings. The Orioles were able to keep pace, however, and won the game 12-10. Hill is a strikeout pitcher with a K/9 of over 9.0, but he has a tendency to walk batters. Last season his WHIP in the Majors consisted of more walks than hits. He had the same problem in the minors as well. It speaks to an issue of delivery and control as a pitcher who strikes so many batters out will throw balls that are swung at he must be putting the ball way outside the zone at times. Even with the Mariners most likely to cool off at the plate tonight any hits they do get will be that much more costly with runners already on base. One man who will certainly make Hill pay is the speedy Ichiro Suzuki, who is currently riding a 24 game hit streak.

Baltimore will have to hope their offense can keep pace tonight if Hill is unable to keep men off base. Their offense already cooled down facing Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson against Detroit, though they are still batting .247 and slugging .412 in their past three games.

Luke Scott (left) has an OPS of over 1.900 in the past week, while Ichiro (right) has a hit in 24 consecutive games.

The Orioles boast the presence of Player of the Week Luke Scott who has gone 8-for-18 with 6 home runs, driving in 14 runs in the past 5 games. Baltimore will be tested once again, facing Jarrod Washburn who rebounded from a poor showing against the Angels with a 6 inning shutout of Oakland.

Overall I think Washburn is likely to avoid a poor start, but could very well give up 4 or 5 runs in 6 innings. If the season were to end now Washburn's 3.45 ERA would rank as his 3^rd best in his 12 year career. I think the Mariners will not hit as well as they have been but bases on balls and speedy base running will still lead to a few runs off of the hits they do get. The x-factor will be whether Baltimore can score enough runs to keep pace.