click it
An ugly 1-3-0 day, and if I hadn’t gotten all 3 morning picks right I’m sure it would have been 0-4-0. My first pick was the PIttsburgh Pirates. Neither Maholm or Nolasco had spectacular outings with a 6.00 ERA for the former and a 7.50 ERA for the latter in 6 innings pitched each. Pittsburgh took an early 1-0 lead on an Adam LaRouche ground rule double in the 1st. McLouth batted in another run and a sacrifice fly by Andy LaRouche made it 3-0 after three. A Helms double RBI in the fourth got a run back for the Marlins and Nolasco himself hit a single RBI in the 5th to make it 3-2. Andy LaRouche got that run back in the next inning but the Marlins leveled things at 4-4 with RBI’s by Paulino and Ross. Morgan batted in a run at the top of the 6th, and crossed home on a throwing error by Paulino. The bullpens came in to play after that and another run by the Pirates made the final score 7-4. Grabow did a terrific job for the Pirates with a 3 K hold in the 8th.
My second pick of the day was the San Diego Padres. Barry Zito had a terrific outing for the Giants with 5 strikeouts, and zero earned runs in 7 innings. Chris Young also had a nice outing, giving up 2 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings. Howry relieved Zito but was pulled after two batters when Hairston advanced to third on a sacrifice fly. Affeldt caught Giles and Gonzalez looking to retire the inning with 2 strikeouts. The game went into extra innings tied 0-0 and in the bottom of the 10th Moreno gave up a single, and a ground rule double to Molina to earn the loss. The Padres kept Bell out for a potential save, but it never materialized and the Giants won 1-0.
My third pick was the Baltimore Orioles. This was one that was just a bad pick. The White Sox immediately went to work with Quentin, Getz, and Fields batting in three runs in the first two innings. A lead off home run by Thome in the 3rd made it 4-0 White Sox. Guthrie and Danks dueled for a few innings before Scott hit a solo home run to make it 4-1. Guthrie was relieved by Sarfate in the top of the 7th with one man on and Sarfate immediately yielded a two run shot by Fields to put it at 6-2. Danks did a great job retiring batters without throwing too many pitches and did not walk a single batter. In the end it was 8-2 Chicago.
My final pick was the Los Angeles Angels. It was a back and forth battle with Verlander and Saunders giving up hits and runs left and right. Verlander had a 12.40 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in 5 innings pitched while Saunders stood with a 9.00 ERA and 1.8 ERA after 5. It was tied up 4-4 after three innings and the Angels led 8-6 after 6 innings. Scot Shields came in for the Angels in the 7th and immediately gave up two singles and walked a batter to load the bases. He then walked in a run before being relieved by Arredondo. He did not fare well and four singles and an error later the Tigers were up 11-8. The Angels gave up another run in the 9th and a 2 RBI double with 2 outs by Rivera was too little, too late. Detroit won on the road 12-10. So on to the picks…..
1) Rich Beem vs. Steve Marino – Marino cards a lower front 9 score
2) Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
3) Mike Weir vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower first round score
4) Sampdoria @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins by 1 goal, ties, or loses
5) Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
6) Penguins (v. Flyers) vs. Red Wings (v. Blue Jackets) – Red Wings win margin
7) Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls – Chicago
9) New York Red Bulls @ Kansas City Wizards – Kansas City win
10) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros – Los Angeles
11) Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz – Utah
Analysis
1) To start off it might help to view each golfers stats in 2009. Click here for Rich Beem’s stats and click here for Steve Marino’s. In 2008 and 2009 Marino has entered 40 stroke play events, been cut 9 times and finished in the top 10 six times. Beem has entered 35 such events, been cut 14 times and finished in the top 10 twice. The Zurich Open has been played at TPC Louisiana in 2005 and 2007-present. In 2006 and prior to 2005 it was played at the English Turn Golf Club. At the current course Beem has carded four front 9 scores, at +1, +3, -1, and even par. Marino has carded four scores as well, -1, -2, +1, and even par. That makes Beem’s average and median scores just above par and Marino’s a stroke better at just below par. Marino has a worse sand save percentage than Beem and this course is filled with enormous bunkers. On the front 9, however, the bunkers are placed such that that only a poor hook or slice will place a player in the sand. This is in contrast to the back 9 where the bunkers are placed such that an aggressive player trying to give themselves a short approach shot to the green would be penalized. The front 9 should play well to a big driver like Marino and I like his chances to win the front 9. Click here for the group’s shot tracker and click on one of the colored boxes with the players photos inside to get a hole-by-hole view of the course to see what I mean about the placement of the bunkers.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Both starting pitchers have had a good start to their seasons. Gil Meche has a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 innings of work and Anthony Reyes has a 5.73 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 innings. Reyes has had great success against the Royals posting a 2.25 ERA in 8 innings against them last season. The Indians’ batting order has a career batting average of .278 and slugging average of .432 against Meche, so Kansas City’s ace may not be enough for them here tonight. What does favor the Royals is the Indians’ relatively cold bats since their 22 run victory at the new Yankee Stadium. They’ve batted .198 with a .330 slugging average since that game, going 1-2. The Royals have been on the other side of that equation with a .310 batting average and .450 slugging average in their last 3 games. I can see Meche and Reyes each struggling a bit today in a cold early game and can see Cleveland getting back on track with their hitting.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Not much to go on here. Perry has played 8 rounds at TPC Louisiana and carded an average and median score of 71.5 ranging from a 69 to a 74. Weir has played two rounds, a 71 and a 75. You can see how Weir has performed this year compared to Kenny Perry. I think Perry wins with a 71 to a 73 for Weir today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Felix Hernandez and James Shields are starting for Seattle and Tampa Bay, respectively. Both had terrific seasons last year although Hernandez’ stats suffered a bit through injury. Historically the Mariners have performed better against Shields than the Rays against Hernandez. Last season Shields had a 4.05 ERA against the Mariners and a 1.35 WHIP, while Hernandez had a 1.13 ERA against the Rays and a 0.88 WHIP. The Rays’ lineup has a career batting average of .132 and slugging average of .176 against Hernandez. The Mariners’ lineup has a career batting average of .239 and slugging average of .403 against Shields. In their last 3 games the Rays are batting .243 while the Mariners are batting .219, though they are slugging .354 compared to .320 for the Rays. I think it should be a great pitchers duel, but if Hernandez’ ankle is bothering him at all the Rays will be able to take a lead. Unfortunately I don’t see their bullpen doing well to hold on to that lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Kevin Millwood has had a great start to the season with a 1.17 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in three starts. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP so it is likely he will be giving up some walks, hits, and runs soon enough. Scott Richmond is a minor league surprise who has done well enough in the majors. In 27 innings last season he had 20 strikeouts and walked two batters. This season his ERA is 3.48 and his WHIP is 1.35 in 101/3 innings. Texas has one of the best batting orders in the league, but have slumped a tiny bit recently. Toronto’s bats are hot and their bullpen has performed much better than Texas’. Texas will need another terrific 6 or 7 innings from Millwood to have a good chance here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Wandy Rodriguez is an all-star but Chad Billingsley is no slouch. Against Rodriguez the Dodgers have a career batting average of .298 and slugging average of .553. Against Billingsley the Astros have a career batting average of .214 and slugging average of .300. Both teams are hitting great recently and both pitchers are due to give up some runs but the Dodgers’ bullpen has performed a bit better this season with Broxton especially being nearly unhittable.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Utah Jazz were within three points with three minutes to go and the result was a roaring Staples Center, some clutch play by Kobe Bryant, and some brick wall physical defense by the Lakers to end up with a 10 point victory. Mehmet Okur will be missing again for the Utah Jazz and that’s a big injury since Okur can pull Gasol or Bynum out from the paint with his three point shooting and that opens things up down there offensively for the Jazz who rely quite a bit on open lanes to the basket leading to easy shots. As long as Kobe and Gasol lead the Lakers with a killer instinct they should win this game, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them come out a bit lackluster and fold if Utah applies the pressure early and throughout.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
April 22nd, 2009 Picks
‘Twas a quite disappointing 0-2-0 day for me today. My first pick was Liverpool to win at home. They were very aggressive right from the start but were unable to work one past keeper Lukasz Fabianski. At 36’ Mascherano lost the ball to Arsenal and Andrei Arshavin booted the go-ahead goal in past Pepe Reina. Arsenal led 1-0 at half time but Liverpool quickly jumped in front with a header by Torres at 49’ and another one by Benayoun at 56’. Fabianski slapped the Benayoun header out of the goal but was standing past the line and the ball crossed it before he made his move.
At 67’ Arshavin stole the ball and rocketed a shot past a diving Reina. The Liverpool defense made another costly mistake at 70’ when Aurelio chipped a shot clear which landed right to Arshavin who collected his third goal of the day. Torres brought another equalizer two minutes later when he received the balll in the box and turned to his left to slam his shot into the goal. Right as injury time was reached Liverpool had a corner and had pulled an extra man into the box. Fabianski punched the ball clear and there was no Reds player to collect the rebound. Arshavin and Walcott broke for the counter attack and easily beat the Liverpool defense. Arshavin made his fourth goal on the resulting shot. Benayoun equalized again in the third minute of injury time but Liverpool could not muster up a fifth goal in the final two minutes. Arsenal picked up a well deserved point with a 4-4 draw at Anfield.
My second pick was the Milwaukee Brewers. My gut feeling that the Brewers would hit well against Moyer was only half correct. They took a 1-0 lead in the first inning off a Braun solo home run, but gave back two runs in the bottom of the inning. The Brewers ended up with 7 hits and 4 runs off of Moyer, but Parra was one run worse. Moyer put in a solid 6 innings while Parra lasted only 4. In the next two innings the Brewers’ bullpen had allowed another 6 runs and the Brewers were down 11-3. They could not outpace the Phillies’ bats which produced 13 hits with those 11 runs. A rain delay caused the game to finish late, precluding the selection of the late evening picks and the Phillies prevailed 11-4. So on to the picks, eh?
1) Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
2) Werder Bremen @ Hamburg SV – Werder Bremen win or draw
3) Lazio @ Juventus – 3 goals or more
4) San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – San Diego
5) Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
6) Montreal (v. Boston) vs. NY Rangers (v. Washington) – Montreal scores more goals
7) Andre Miller vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
8) Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks – 184 points or fewer
9) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros – Los Angeles
10) Jose Reyes vs. Joel Piniero – Piniero total strikeouts
11) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – 5 goals or fewer
12) Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
13) C. Paul and D. West vs. C. Billups and C. Anthony – Paul and West pts.
Analysis
1) Ricky Nolasco will be starting pitcher for the Florida Marlins as they try to avoid a sweep by the Pittsburgh Pirates and PNC Park. Paul Maholm will start for the Pirates. Maholm is having a terrific start to the season with a 0.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 3 starts and 202/3 innings pitched. Nolasco has had a more mundane start with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.60 in 3 starts and 15 innings pitched. Last season Nolasco was a slightly better pitcher regarding these metrics and collected 15 wins to 8 losses while Maholm had 9 wins and 9 losses. The Marlins batters have had success historically against Maholm as well, batting .286 and slugging .603 in 63 at bats. The Pirates have not done as well with a .216 batting average and .314 slugging average. One bright spot for Maholm is his 2.6 strikeout to walk ratio against the Marlins’ lineup compared to a 1.8 SO:BB ratio for Nolasco against the Pirates. This season, however, it is Nolasco with the 4.0 SO:BB ratio and Maholm with a 1.0 SO:BB ratio. The Marlins have been cold at the plate in their last three games with a .185 batting average. This could be the game they break out of that slump, but I think the Marlins are facing Maholm at the wrong time to take advantage of him again. The Pirates’ bullpen of Yates, Grabow, and Capps has performed well this year so they should be able to hold on to a lead as long as Maholm doesn’t plummet back to earth in this game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) It’s probably easier just to read it for yourselves so here are each clubs’ news in English. Click for Werder Bremen news; Click for HSV news; And a preview from goal.com. Werder Bremen have won 4 away matches to reach the semi-final, including a 5-2 thrashing of VfL Wolfsburg who are 13-1-0 (W-D-L) in league play with a plus-27 goal differential. Werder Bremen are 1-5-8 away in the Bundesliga with a minus-7 goal differential. Wolfsburg was at full strength so one can see how Bundesliga form can fly out the window for a Cup match like this. Throw in that this is a ‘derby’ (read: rivalry) match between HSV and Werder Bremen and it’s tough to predict the outcome. I would give HSV the advantage at home but give Bremen the overall advantage of performing well in this tournament. HSV have their hands full with the Bundesliga title within reach. HSV and Bremen play one another in the UEFA Cup semi-finals as well so neither team is relying on this tournament solely for winning a trophy this year.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) The starting pitchers for this game are Chris Young for the Padres and Barry Zito for the Giants. Young has had a good start to the season with a 4.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 16.2 innings pitched which is not far off from his overall ERA and WHIP from the 2008 season. He also has done well against the Giants with a 2.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 innings against them last season. Barry Zito has not gotten off to a stellar start with a 10.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 9 innings pitched. He gave up 6 earned runs in one start and 4 earned runs in his other start. His numbers from last season were worse than Young’s but much better than his current lines. He did alright in 202/3 innings against the Padres last season with a 3.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Both teams are hitting the ball well with the Padres batting .330 in their last three games and the Giants batting .255 in their last three. In terms of slugging percentage the Padres are at .477 recently and the Giants are at .363. Overall the Padres’ bullpen has done better with Bell recording 5 saves in 5 appearances, and Cla Meredith recording 3 wins. The Giants’ Brian Wilson has 2 saves in 5 appearances and no wins, and the other main relievers have nearly as many losses as holds and saves. I fully expect Zito to pitch a good game today, but Young should be better. The Padres have had the hotter bats lately and the deadlier bullpen as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) The Sixers won Game 1 by two points in Orlando and Andre Miller had 7 assists and 7 rebounds. Stan Van Gundy is a good coach who was the favorite to win Coach of the Year for most of the season. I think Van Gundy will make some adjustments and Orlando will find itself up by at least 15 after three quarters and this time Orlando will extend that lead. Hedo Turkoglu not being 100% will make it more difficult for the Magic as he has been a large part of their ability to close teams out at the end of games. Andre Miller is also one of the better rebounding point guards in the league. If Orlando plays strong defense Miller’s teammates will start to miss shots and Miller could very well end up with under 5 assists. Half of Miller’s rebounds this season were offensive so he’ll still get at least 4 rebounds. Miller has the potential to get a triple double so 20 plus assists and rebounds is possible but I like the Magic to win by more than 20.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) Piniero has had 2 and 3 strikeouts in his first two starts. His median number of strikeouts this year and last is 3. Last season Piniero had 10 games with 4 or more strikeouts and 16 with three or fewer. This season Reyes has two games with 5 or more total bases and 11 games with 3 or fewer. His median number of total bases this season and last is 1. Reyes has recorded 13 total bases in 9 career at bats against Piniero while being struck out twice. This looks to be very close and only based on Piniero’s success in a small number of at bats would he have a chance here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) In the playoffs these teams have scored 4, 5, and 6 goals in regulation. During the season they scored 7, 4, 7, and 7 goals. Notice when the series was at 0-0 there were 4 goals, at 1-0 there were 5 goals, and at 2-0 there were 6 goals. Now it’s 2-1 so I see more conservative play and defensive focus from these two teams.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Chauncey Billups scored 36 points on 10 of 15 shooting in Game 1, including 8 for 9 from three point range. Anthony added 13 points with a poor shooting night. David West did even worse with 12 points on 16 field goal attempts and Paul added 21 points, with the Nuggets’ duo outscoring them 49 to 33. During the season Paul and West averaged 43.8 points while Billups and Anthony averaged 40.5 points. In the last 5 games of the regular season Paul and West averaged 53.2 point to 35.6 points for Anthony and Billups. Billups would do well to have even 3 three pointers and 25 points in this game. I think West, Anthony, and Paul all increase their scoring from Game 1. In the end West and Paul should win this prop by 5 points or so.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
At 67’ Arshavin stole the ball and rocketed a shot past a diving Reina. The Liverpool defense made another costly mistake at 70’ when Aurelio chipped a shot clear which landed right to Arshavin who collected his third goal of the day. Torres brought another equalizer two minutes later when he received the balll in the box and turned to his left to slam his shot into the goal. Right as injury time was reached Liverpool had a corner and had pulled an extra man into the box. Fabianski punched the ball clear and there was no Reds player to collect the rebound. Arshavin and Walcott broke for the counter attack and easily beat the Liverpool defense. Arshavin made his fourth goal on the resulting shot. Benayoun equalized again in the third minute of injury time but Liverpool could not muster up a fifth goal in the final two minutes. Arsenal picked up a well deserved point with a 4-4 draw at Anfield.
My second pick was the Milwaukee Brewers. My gut feeling that the Brewers would hit well against Moyer was only half correct. They took a 1-0 lead in the first inning off a Braun solo home run, but gave back two runs in the bottom of the inning. The Brewers ended up with 7 hits and 4 runs off of Moyer, but Parra was one run worse. Moyer put in a solid 6 innings while Parra lasted only 4. In the next two innings the Brewers’ bullpen had allowed another 6 runs and the Brewers were down 11-3. They could not outpace the Phillies’ bats which produced 13 hits with those 11 runs. A rain delay caused the game to finish late, precluding the selection of the late evening picks and the Phillies prevailed 11-4. So on to the picks, eh?
1) Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
2) Werder Bremen @ Hamburg SV – Werder Bremen win or draw
3) Lazio @ Juventus – 3 goals or more
4) San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – San Diego
5) Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
6) Montreal (v. Boston) vs. NY Rangers (v. Washington) – Montreal scores more goals
7) Andre Miller vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
8) Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks – 184 points or fewer
9) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros – Los Angeles
10) Jose Reyes vs. Joel Piniero – Piniero total strikeouts
11) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – 5 goals or fewer
12) Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
13) C. Paul and D. West vs. C. Billups and C. Anthony – Paul and West pts.
Analysis
1) Ricky Nolasco will be starting pitcher for the Florida Marlins as they try to avoid a sweep by the Pittsburgh Pirates and PNC Park. Paul Maholm will start for the Pirates. Maholm is having a terrific start to the season with a 0.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 3 starts and 202/3 innings pitched. Nolasco has had a more mundane start with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.60 in 3 starts and 15 innings pitched. Last season Nolasco was a slightly better pitcher regarding these metrics and collected 15 wins to 8 losses while Maholm had 9 wins and 9 losses. The Marlins batters have had success historically against Maholm as well, batting .286 and slugging .603 in 63 at bats. The Pirates have not done as well with a .216 batting average and .314 slugging average. One bright spot for Maholm is his 2.6 strikeout to walk ratio against the Marlins’ lineup compared to a 1.8 SO:BB ratio for Nolasco against the Pirates. This season, however, it is Nolasco with the 4.0 SO:BB ratio and Maholm with a 1.0 SO:BB ratio. The Marlins have been cold at the plate in their last three games with a .185 batting average. This could be the game they break out of that slump, but I think the Marlins are facing Maholm at the wrong time to take advantage of him again. The Pirates’ bullpen of Yates, Grabow, and Capps has performed well this year so they should be able to hold on to a lead as long as Maholm doesn’t plummet back to earth in this game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) It’s probably easier just to read it for yourselves so here are each clubs’ news in English. Click for Werder Bremen news; Click for HSV news; And a preview from goal.com. Werder Bremen have won 4 away matches to reach the semi-final, including a 5-2 thrashing of VfL Wolfsburg who are 13-1-0 (W-D-L) in league play with a plus-27 goal differential. Werder Bremen are 1-5-8 away in the Bundesliga with a minus-7 goal differential. Wolfsburg was at full strength so one can see how Bundesliga form can fly out the window for a Cup match like this. Throw in that this is a ‘derby’ (read: rivalry) match between HSV and Werder Bremen and it’s tough to predict the outcome. I would give HSV the advantage at home but give Bremen the overall advantage of performing well in this tournament. HSV have their hands full with the Bundesliga title within reach. HSV and Bremen play one another in the UEFA Cup semi-finals as well so neither team is relying on this tournament solely for winning a trophy this year.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) The starting pitchers for this game are Chris Young for the Padres and Barry Zito for the Giants. Young has had a good start to the season with a 4.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 16.2 innings pitched which is not far off from his overall ERA and WHIP from the 2008 season. He also has done well against the Giants with a 2.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 innings against them last season. Barry Zito has not gotten off to a stellar start with a 10.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 9 innings pitched. He gave up 6 earned runs in one start and 4 earned runs in his other start. His numbers from last season were worse than Young’s but much better than his current lines. He did alright in 202/3 innings against the Padres last season with a 3.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Both teams are hitting the ball well with the Padres batting .330 in their last three games and the Giants batting .255 in their last three. In terms of slugging percentage the Padres are at .477 recently and the Giants are at .363. Overall the Padres’ bullpen has done better with Bell recording 5 saves in 5 appearances, and Cla Meredith recording 3 wins. The Giants’ Brian Wilson has 2 saves in 5 appearances and no wins, and the other main relievers have nearly as many losses as holds and saves. I fully expect Zito to pitch a good game today, but Young should be better. The Padres have had the hotter bats lately and the deadlier bullpen as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) The Sixers won Game 1 by two points in Orlando and Andre Miller had 7 assists and 7 rebounds. Stan Van Gundy is a good coach who was the favorite to win Coach of the Year for most of the season. I think Van Gundy will make some adjustments and Orlando will find itself up by at least 15 after three quarters and this time Orlando will extend that lead. Hedo Turkoglu not being 100% will make it more difficult for the Magic as he has been a large part of their ability to close teams out at the end of games. Andre Miller is also one of the better rebounding point guards in the league. If Orlando plays strong defense Miller’s teammates will start to miss shots and Miller could very well end up with under 5 assists. Half of Miller’s rebounds this season were offensive so he’ll still get at least 4 rebounds. Miller has the potential to get a triple double so 20 plus assists and rebounds is possible but I like the Magic to win by more than 20.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) Piniero has had 2 and 3 strikeouts in his first two starts. His median number of strikeouts this year and last is 3. Last season Piniero had 10 games with 4 or more strikeouts and 16 with three or fewer. This season Reyes has two games with 5 or more total bases and 11 games with 3 or fewer. His median number of total bases this season and last is 1. Reyes has recorded 13 total bases in 9 career at bats against Piniero while being struck out twice. This looks to be very close and only based on Piniero’s success in a small number of at bats would he have a chance here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) In the playoffs these teams have scored 4, 5, and 6 goals in regulation. During the season they scored 7, 4, 7, and 7 goals. Notice when the series was at 0-0 there were 4 goals, at 1-0 there were 5 goals, and at 2-0 there were 6 goals. Now it’s 2-1 so I see more conservative play and defensive focus from these two teams.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Chauncey Billups scored 36 points on 10 of 15 shooting in Game 1, including 8 for 9 from three point range. Anthony added 13 points with a poor shooting night. David West did even worse with 12 points on 16 field goal attempts and Paul added 21 points, with the Nuggets’ duo outscoring them 49 to 33. During the season Paul and West averaged 43.8 points while Billups and Anthony averaged 40.5 points. In the last 5 games of the regular season Paul and West averaged 53.2 point to 35.6 points for Anthony and Billups. Billups would do well to have even 3 three pointers and 25 points in this game. I think West, Anthony, and Paul all increase their scoring from Game 1. In the end West and Paul should win this prop by 5 points or so.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
April 21st, 2009 Picks
Holy flarking schnittballs, 1-3-0 today. My first pick of the day was Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot. He started out the race well as a dozen or so runners were leading the pack in a group of their own. At 25K, a little over halfway through the race Cheruiyot and Ryan Hall were still with the main group clocking in at 1:16:10, a very fast pace. 5 kilometers later Cheruiyot had dropped behind the main group by nearly half a minute and in the next 5 kilometers he had dropped behind by over 4 minutes. In the end he was unable to complete the race and Ryan Hall made a terrific finish to the race to close the gap between him and eventual winner Deriba Merga to 58 seconds. Ryan Hall finished in 3rd place with a time of 2:09:40 and proved he can run with the best in the world on one of the toughest courses in the world.
My second pick was Burnley over Sheffield United. Both teams looked very talented and worthy of promotion, though they played a bit recklessly most of the time. It was a very physical match with the referee allowing most contact when a play was made for the ball. In the 23’ Rhys Williams whipped a cross in from the right wing and Martin Paterson leaned forward to head the ball in to the goal and put Burnley ahead 1-0. At the end of the first half Sheffield United applied some pressure and were rewarded with three consecutive corner kicks, but could not get anything for the effort. They had some very dangerous opportunities arise in the 2nd half but Brian Jensen made the necessary saves and the Blades squandered other opportunities with off-target shots. Burnley held on to win after 5 minutes of injury time, 1-0.
My third pick was the New York Rangers. They were at home and up 2-0 in the series and that must have provided all the incentive the Capitals needed to show up. They played very well, going up 2-0 in the first 12 minutes on two Alexander Semin goals, each assisted by Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Rangers were frustrated by their inability to beat Simeon Varlamov, who finished with a shutout and 33 saves. The Rangers ended up with 26 penalty minutes and the Capitals took advantage with two power play goals. Washington took a game back with a 4-0 win.
My last pick was the Colorado Rockies. Considering Marquis and Garland had similar ERA’s last season it was not terribly surprising to see Garland pitch a fine game while Marquis was far too hittable. Arizona went up early on a lead-off home run by Reynolds in the 2nd. Colorado got the run back when Fowler hit a single to bat in Iannetta. A Reynolds double in the 4th put Arizona up 2-1, and in the 5th inning the Diamondbacks broke the game open. An error by Hawpe allowed Ojeda to reach home from 1st base off a single and Montero belted out a three run homer to give Arizona the 6-1 lead. Colorado made a game attempt at a comeback with a single run in the 6th and 8th innings but in the end left too many men stranded at 2nd and 3rd to take this game. Arizona won at home 6-3. So on to the picks.
1) Arsenal @ Liverpool – Liverpool win
2) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee
4) Rodney Stuckey vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas – Ilgauskas pts.
5) New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
6) Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
7) Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners – Tampa Bay
8) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – San Jose
9) Carlos Boozer vs. Kobe Bryant – Boozer pts. and reb.
Analysis
1) Liverpool currently lies one point off Manchester United for first place in the Premier League, and with a game in hand against Portsmouth for the Red Devils Liverpool absolutely need to win this game. Missing for Arsenal will be Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor at forward, Clichy, Gallas, and Djourou on defense, and goalkeeper Manuel Alumnia. Arsenal have the necessary depth up front with Arshavin, Bendtner, Eduardo, and Vela available, but will be hard pressed to replace Clichy and Gallas, though the return of Bacary Sagna will help. Lukasz Fabianski will fill in for Alumnia. Liverpool will be without Steven Gerrard who has a groin injury and another week or more of recovery left. That will hurt but they will be hoping Xabi Alonso can take on his role and Yossi Benayoun can put in a strong start. Liverpool played at the Emirates Stadium last December against a an Arsenal side missing Theo Walcott and Liverpool with Robbie Keane in place of Torres. The result was a 1-1 draw. Now Liverpool is at home and I think with the injuries in Arsenal’s backfield Liverpool have a good chance of winning this match outright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Because of the rainout last night Jamie Moyer will be getting his third start of the season tonight. So far in 11 innings pitched he has given up 16 hits and walked 4 batters while striking out 3. His WHIP is 1.83 where 1.75 is considered the break point between very poor and average. Last year his WHIP was 1.33 and his strikeout to walk ratio was 1.98 so he is due to have a good start, but in his 23rd season now it would not be surprising if he experienced a decline this year. Manny Parra is starting for the Brewers and has had an average start to the season with a 6.97 ERA and WHIP of 1.39. He has two losses in his first two starts due to the Brewers only scoring 1 run in each of those games. Milwaukee will need to generate more runs here to win this game and I think Jamie Moyer will allow that It will be difficult to outpace the Phillies’ bats which have generated 31 hits and 17 runs in their series against the Padres, but my gut tells me it will happen tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) During the regular season Ilgauskas outscored Stuckey in 3 of the 4 meetings. Allen Iverson played in all four of those games and that had an effect on Stuckey’s role in the offense and his production. In Game 1 of their playoff series Stuckey outscored Ilgauskas 20-12 while taking 21 field goal attempts and 6 free throws. I cannot guarantee Stuckey will have been told to stop taking so many shots and distribute the ball more but that is how I see Curry playing it in Game 2. I’m guessing Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, and others will end up with more field goal attempts this time around. Ilgauskas should score 12 plus points, but he’s had bad games before with less than 10.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Armando Galarraga will be starting for the Tigers tonight and he is off to a fantastic start to the season, and that’s understating it. In two starts he has pitched 131/3 innings with an ERA of 0.68 and a WHIP of 0.90, both wins. His strikeout to walk ratio is over 4:1. He had a 1.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP against the Angels last season, so I think we can expect another great outing from him rather than a move back to the mean. Jered Weaver has had a fairly good start for the Angels, pitching 112/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. Detroit has been hitting the ball very well with a batting average of .283 in their last three outings generating 13 runs. Their slugging average has been lagging, however, at .321 with only four doubles in those three games. The Angels have been cold lately hitting .225 in their series against the Twins. They have done better at home and playing at Angel Stadium may be the boost they need. In their last series there, against the Red Sox, they batted .289 with a slugging average of .454 which included 4 home runs. The Angels need 5 to 6 solid innings from Weaver and will need to swing wisely and force Galarraga into high pitch counts in an effort to get to the Tigers’ bullpen early.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Over the course of the season Carlos Boozer has averaged 26.6 points and rebounds and Kobe Bryant has averaged 26.8 points. Boozer was injured for over half of the season and had a number of low production games when he returned. He averaged 31.0 points and rebounds before the injury. His production remained limited even after recovering from the injury, however, as he averaged 27.8 points and rebounds in his last 5 meaningful regular season games. Kobe Bryant has also slowed a bit at the end of the season, averaging 25.0 points in his last 5 games where he played meaningful minutes. In last years playoff series Kobe Bryant won this prop in 4 games of the 6 including the first two homestand games. Bryant averaged 13.4 free throw attempts per game, with a series low of 10 attempts in Game 5. He had 7 attempts in Game 1 this year which gives an indication of how aggressive he was in attacking the basket. Boozer had 27 points and 9 rebounds to Bryant’s 24 points in Game 1. Watching the Lakers this year Phil Jackson has been running the offense through Pau Gasol to a greater degree. Against a generally weak defensive frontcourt in Utah I expect to see more of the same and thus fewer 30-plus point games from Bryant. Boozer only needs to have a decent night offensively, especially if he gathers 15-plus rebounds which he is more than capable of.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick was Burnley over Sheffield United. Both teams looked very talented and worthy of promotion, though they played a bit recklessly most of the time. It was a very physical match with the referee allowing most contact when a play was made for the ball. In the 23’ Rhys Williams whipped a cross in from the right wing and Martin Paterson leaned forward to head the ball in to the goal and put Burnley ahead 1-0. At the end of the first half Sheffield United applied some pressure and were rewarded with three consecutive corner kicks, but could not get anything for the effort. They had some very dangerous opportunities arise in the 2nd half but Brian Jensen made the necessary saves and the Blades squandered other opportunities with off-target shots. Burnley held on to win after 5 minutes of injury time, 1-0.
My third pick was the New York Rangers. They were at home and up 2-0 in the series and that must have provided all the incentive the Capitals needed to show up. They played very well, going up 2-0 in the first 12 minutes on two Alexander Semin goals, each assisted by Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Rangers were frustrated by their inability to beat Simeon Varlamov, who finished with a shutout and 33 saves. The Rangers ended up with 26 penalty minutes and the Capitals took advantage with two power play goals. Washington took a game back with a 4-0 win.
My last pick was the Colorado Rockies. Considering Marquis and Garland had similar ERA’s last season it was not terribly surprising to see Garland pitch a fine game while Marquis was far too hittable. Arizona went up early on a lead-off home run by Reynolds in the 2nd. Colorado got the run back when Fowler hit a single to bat in Iannetta. A Reynolds double in the 4th put Arizona up 2-1, and in the 5th inning the Diamondbacks broke the game open. An error by Hawpe allowed Ojeda to reach home from 1st base off a single and Montero belted out a three run homer to give Arizona the 6-1 lead. Colorado made a game attempt at a comeback with a single run in the 6th and 8th innings but in the end left too many men stranded at 2nd and 3rd to take this game. Arizona won at home 6-3. So on to the picks.
1) Arsenal @ Liverpool – Liverpool win
2) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Milwaukee
4) Rodney Stuckey vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas – Ilgauskas pts.
5) New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
6) Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
7) Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners – Tampa Bay
8) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – San Jose
9) Carlos Boozer vs. Kobe Bryant – Boozer pts. and reb.
Analysis
1) Liverpool currently lies one point off Manchester United for first place in the Premier League, and with a game in hand against Portsmouth for the Red Devils Liverpool absolutely need to win this game. Missing for Arsenal will be Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor at forward, Clichy, Gallas, and Djourou on defense, and goalkeeper Manuel Alumnia. Arsenal have the necessary depth up front with Arshavin, Bendtner, Eduardo, and Vela available, but will be hard pressed to replace Clichy and Gallas, though the return of Bacary Sagna will help. Lukasz Fabianski will fill in for Alumnia. Liverpool will be without Steven Gerrard who has a groin injury and another week or more of recovery left. That will hurt but they will be hoping Xabi Alonso can take on his role and Yossi Benayoun can put in a strong start. Liverpool played at the Emirates Stadium last December against a an Arsenal side missing Theo Walcott and Liverpool with Robbie Keane in place of Torres. The result was a 1-1 draw. Now Liverpool is at home and I think with the injuries in Arsenal’s backfield Liverpool have a good chance of winning this match outright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Because of the rainout last night Jamie Moyer will be getting his third start of the season tonight. So far in 11 innings pitched he has given up 16 hits and walked 4 batters while striking out 3. His WHIP is 1.83 where 1.75 is considered the break point between very poor and average. Last year his WHIP was 1.33 and his strikeout to walk ratio was 1.98 so he is due to have a good start, but in his 23rd season now it would not be surprising if he experienced a decline this year. Manny Parra is starting for the Brewers and has had an average start to the season with a 6.97 ERA and WHIP of 1.39. He has two losses in his first two starts due to the Brewers only scoring 1 run in each of those games. Milwaukee will need to generate more runs here to win this game and I think Jamie Moyer will allow that It will be difficult to outpace the Phillies’ bats which have generated 31 hits and 17 runs in their series against the Padres, but my gut tells me it will happen tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) During the regular season Ilgauskas outscored Stuckey in 3 of the 4 meetings. Allen Iverson played in all four of those games and that had an effect on Stuckey’s role in the offense and his production. In Game 1 of their playoff series Stuckey outscored Ilgauskas 20-12 while taking 21 field goal attempts and 6 free throws. I cannot guarantee Stuckey will have been told to stop taking so many shots and distribute the ball more but that is how I see Curry playing it in Game 2. I’m guessing Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, and others will end up with more field goal attempts this time around. Ilgauskas should score 12 plus points, but he’s had bad games before with less than 10.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Armando Galarraga will be starting for the Tigers tonight and he is off to a fantastic start to the season, and that’s understating it. In two starts he has pitched 131/3 innings with an ERA of 0.68 and a WHIP of 0.90, both wins. His strikeout to walk ratio is over 4:1. He had a 1.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP against the Angels last season, so I think we can expect another great outing from him rather than a move back to the mean. Jered Weaver has had a fairly good start for the Angels, pitching 112/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. Detroit has been hitting the ball very well with a batting average of .283 in their last three outings generating 13 runs. Their slugging average has been lagging, however, at .321 with only four doubles in those three games. The Angels have been cold lately hitting .225 in their series against the Twins. They have done better at home and playing at Angel Stadium may be the boost they need. In their last series there, against the Red Sox, they batted .289 with a slugging average of .454 which included 4 home runs. The Angels need 5 to 6 solid innings from Weaver and will need to swing wisely and force Galarraga into high pitch counts in an effort to get to the Tigers’ bullpen early.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Over the course of the season Carlos Boozer has averaged 26.6 points and rebounds and Kobe Bryant has averaged 26.8 points. Boozer was injured for over half of the season and had a number of low production games when he returned. He averaged 31.0 points and rebounds before the injury. His production remained limited even after recovering from the injury, however, as he averaged 27.8 points and rebounds in his last 5 meaningful regular season games. Kobe Bryant has also slowed a bit at the end of the season, averaging 25.0 points in his last 5 games where he played meaningful minutes. In last years playoff series Kobe Bryant won this prop in 4 games of the 6 including the first two homestand games. Bryant averaged 13.4 free throw attempts per game, with a series low of 10 attempts in Game 5. He had 7 attempts in Game 1 this year which gives an indication of how aggressive he was in attacking the basket. Boozer had 27 points and 9 rebounds to Bryant’s 24 points in Game 1. Watching the Lakers this year Phil Jackson has been running the offense through Pau Gasol to a greater degree. Against a generally weak defensive frontcourt in Utah I expect to see more of the same and thus fewer 30-plus point games from Bryant. Boozer only needs to have a decent night offensively, especially if he gathers 15-plus rebounds which he is more than capable of.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Monday, April 20, 2009
April 20th, 2009 Picks
2-1-0 yesterday. My first pick was Rory McIlroy to card a lower front 9 score. Joe Durant played a very solid round, hitting most of his fairways and rarely having to scramble to score par. McIlroy routinely found himself hitting his second shot from the rough but managed to stick his shot fairly close to the hole most of the time. The winner of this prop was decided by who had the best mid-range putting game. Durant hit his 10 foot putt on #2 for birdie while McIlroy missed his and ended up with par. Durant missed a 7 foot putt for par and ended up with a bogey on #3. McIlroy missed a 6-foot putt on #6 and ended up with a bogey on that hole. On the par-4 8th hole Joe Durant sank a 12 foot putt for birdie and went up two strokes on McIlroy. McIlroy was able to hit a 5 foot putt on #9 to gain a stroke back but it was not enough as Durant carded a 34 to McIlroy’s 35.
My second pick of the day was for Brian Gay to win the Verizon Open. Gay started out well with a birdie on the first hole and only got better from there. On the par-5 second hole he hit his second shot on to the green 57 feet from the hole and proceeded to sink that monster for an eagle. He had opened up a six stroke lead at that point and went on to hit two more birdies on the front 9 while hitting par on the rest of the holes. His first bogey came on #12 when he missed a 9 foot putt for par. At that point he had a seven stroke lead and it hardly mattered. He hit three more birdies on the next four holes and had a 10 stroke lead on the rest of the field with two holes remaining. He hit par on #17 and #18 to take the tournament with a record 20 under par. His 10 stroke lead on the rest of the field was also a record at Harbour Town. Gay bogeyed two times in the 72 holes he played in the event, also a record.
My third pick was the Vancouver Canucks. The St. Louis Blues took the lead three minutes into the game on a David Backes goal. The Canucks held on from there and in the second period scored a couple of power play goals two minutes apart. Andy McDonal equalized things at 2-2 with four minutes remaining and the score stood heading into the third period. A roughing penalty assessed at the very end of the period would prove costly for the Blues as Vancouver scored on the resulting power play less than two minutes into the third. Vancouver would hold on to win 3-2 to go up 3 games to none in the series. Vancouver converted 3 of their 5 power plays and killed all 6 Blues power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot vs. Ryan Hall – Cheruiyot finishes with a faster time
2) Sheffield United @ Burnley – Burnley win
3) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – New York
4) Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees – 2 home runs or less hit in the game
5) Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals – Washington
6) Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Florida
7) Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros – Cincinnati
8) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – Calgary
9) Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts. and reb.
10) Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Colorado
Analysis
1) Robert Cheruiyot is an overwhelming favorite to win this race in the eyes of the bookies and bettors. Cheruiyot has +150 on him while Ryan Hall is anywhere from +350 to +500. Cheruiyot has won the Boston Marathon for the past three years and set the all-time record at the Boston Marathon in 2006 with a time of 2:07:14. Ryan Hall qualified for the Boston Marathon with his 2:06:17 5th place finish at the London Marathon in 2008. This is Hall’s first entry into the Boston Marathon. Here is a story about that London Marathon that makes me think Cheruiyot will win finish ahead of Hall if not win the race: “On that note I came across the results from the London Marathon this past weekend and Ryan Hall kicked ass. He finished in 5th place (behind 4 Kenyans) with a time of 2:06:17, which is the 3rd best American marathon finish ever. I think the coolest thing I read about the race is that sometime in the middle of the race, Hall in the lead pack rolled up to the front of the Kenyans and told them to pick up the pace, they were running too slow. Granted that may not have been the best move as the Kenyans picked up the pace to 4:30/mile (insanity) and dared him to keep up, not much of a chance.” I think Cheruiyot will be able to match and exceed any pace Hall decides to set but a year of training could surprise everyone.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Sheffield United stands 3rd in the tables with 76 points, 4 points off of automatic promotion to the Premier League. Burnley stands 6th place with 69 points, one point clear of dropping out of the promotion playoffs. Burnley defeated Sheffield United away 3-2 on December 6th, 2008. Sheffield United last lost an away match October 19th, 2008, to Sheffield Wednesday 0-1. Since then they are undefeated in 15 away matches. Burnley lost at home to Sheffield Wednesday 2-4 on February 28th, 2009 and since then have won three straight home matches. Striker Steven Thompson is likely to be missing from Burnley today with injury and fellow striker Martin Paterson is probable to be a substitute rather than a starter. Sheffield United will be without defender Matthew Kilgallon who suffered a knock in during a 1-0 away win at Reading. They will also miss attacking midfielder Brian Howard. With Burnley being at home and desperately needing at least one point to stay in the race for promotion I think they will be more motivated to avoid a loss, while Sheffield United would be satisfied with a draw.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) This game has been postponed.
5) The Washington Nationals are 1-11 this season. They simply have to start winning some games at some point because teams just do not finish the season with 14 wins. They will be starting Jordan Zimmerman who is a highly touted prospect. The Braves will counter with Derek Lowe who has a strong track-record against the Nationals. Lowe has an ERA of 2.81 in three starts this season, having given up 5 runs in 16 innings. Last season he fairly dominated the Nationals with a 0.56 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) in 13 innings and an ERA of 1.13. The Braves look like a lock here, but with Washington due for a win and the potential of Zimmerman they could easily lose a low scoring game.
UPDATE: The 5-year $45 milion deal was for 3B Ryan Zimmerman, unrelated to Jordan Zimmerman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Dirk Nowtizki averaged 34.3 points and rebounds during the season while Tim Duncan averaged 30.0 points and rebounds. In the last 5 games of the season where Duncan played meaningful minutes he averaged 32.8. Nowitzki also stepped up his game, averaging 40.2 rebounds and points in his last 5 games of the regular season. In three meetings during the regular season Nowtizki won this prop once in San Antonio, 37-34 and once in Dallas, 36-31. Duncan won once in Dallas 46-45 and did not play in the third game of the season series. In Game 1 of this series Nowtizki had 19 points and 8 rebounds. Tim Duncan had 27 points and 9 rebounds. Last year against the Hornets Nowitzki averaged 34.8 points and rebounds while going down in 5 games. In the Spurs’ series against the Hornets that same year Duncan averaged 27.1 points and rebounds while winning a 7 game series. After losing Game 1 of this series I think Duncan, out of the two, will be the one to step up his game which was already more than enough to out pace Nowitzki in points and rebounds. Nowitzki has the greater potential to win this prop but I’m inclined to go with the player who won in the previous game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) The starting pitchers in this game are Jon Garland for the Diamondbacks and Jason Marquis for the Rockies. Garland has a year-to-date ERA of 8.44 and is 1-1 in decisions. He’s also struck out 2 batters while walking 8 which is poor for him when he struck out 1.5 times as many batters as he walked last year. Marquis has a 1.93 ERA so far this year and has a 2-0 record in decisions. Both he and Garland have been around 4.50 in ERA for most of their careers. I like Colorado in this game because of how cold the Diamondbacks have been when it comes to hitting the ball recently. They have a .126 batting average in their last 3 games, including a .167 slugging average against Sanchez on Friday night, a pitcher against whom their batting order has a career slugging average of .680 against. Colorado has been only slightly better with a .214 batting average in their past 3 games. At least Colorado has scored 10 runs in those games, whereas Arizona has been limited to 4 runs. Marquis has been pitching well compared to Garland so far this season as well.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick of the day was for Brian Gay to win the Verizon Open. Gay started out well with a birdie on the first hole and only got better from there. On the par-5 second hole he hit his second shot on to the green 57 feet from the hole and proceeded to sink that monster for an eagle. He had opened up a six stroke lead at that point and went on to hit two more birdies on the front 9 while hitting par on the rest of the holes. His first bogey came on #12 when he missed a 9 foot putt for par. At that point he had a seven stroke lead and it hardly mattered. He hit three more birdies on the next four holes and had a 10 stroke lead on the rest of the field with two holes remaining. He hit par on #17 and #18 to take the tournament with a record 20 under par. His 10 stroke lead on the rest of the field was also a record at Harbour Town. Gay bogeyed two times in the 72 holes he played in the event, also a record.
My third pick was the Vancouver Canucks. The St. Louis Blues took the lead three minutes into the game on a David Backes goal. The Canucks held on from there and in the second period scored a couple of power play goals two minutes apart. Andy McDonal equalized things at 2-2 with four minutes remaining and the score stood heading into the third period. A roughing penalty assessed at the very end of the period would prove costly for the Blues as Vancouver scored on the resulting power play less than two minutes into the third. Vancouver would hold on to win 3-2 to go up 3 games to none in the series. Vancouver converted 3 of their 5 power plays and killed all 6 Blues power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot vs. Ryan Hall – Cheruiyot finishes with a faster time
2) Sheffield United @ Burnley – Burnley win
3) Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – New York
4) Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees – 2 home runs or less hit in the game
5) Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals – Washington
6) Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Florida
7) Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros – Cincinnati
8) Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames – Calgary
9) Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts. and reb.
10) Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Colorado
Analysis
1) Robert Cheruiyot is an overwhelming favorite to win this race in the eyes of the bookies and bettors. Cheruiyot has +150 on him while Ryan Hall is anywhere from +350 to +500. Cheruiyot has won the Boston Marathon for the past three years and set the all-time record at the Boston Marathon in 2006 with a time of 2:07:14. Ryan Hall qualified for the Boston Marathon with his 2:06:17 5th place finish at the London Marathon in 2008. This is Hall’s first entry into the Boston Marathon. Here is a story about that London Marathon that makes me think Cheruiyot will win finish ahead of Hall if not win the race: “On that note I came across the results from the London Marathon this past weekend and Ryan Hall kicked ass. He finished in 5th place (behind 4 Kenyans) with a time of 2:06:17, which is the 3rd best American marathon finish ever. I think the coolest thing I read about the race is that sometime in the middle of the race, Hall in the lead pack rolled up to the front of the Kenyans and told them to pick up the pace, they were running too slow. Granted that may not have been the best move as the Kenyans picked up the pace to 4:30/mile (insanity) and dared him to keep up, not much of a chance.” I think Cheruiyot will be able to match and exceed any pace Hall decides to set but a year of training could surprise everyone.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Sheffield United stands 3rd in the tables with 76 points, 4 points off of automatic promotion to the Premier League. Burnley stands 6th place with 69 points, one point clear of dropping out of the promotion playoffs. Burnley defeated Sheffield United away 3-2 on December 6th, 2008. Sheffield United last lost an away match October 19th, 2008, to Sheffield Wednesday 0-1. Since then they are undefeated in 15 away matches. Burnley lost at home to Sheffield Wednesday 2-4 on February 28th, 2009 and since then have won three straight home matches. Striker Steven Thompson is likely to be missing from Burnley today with injury and fellow striker Martin Paterson is probable to be a substitute rather than a starter. Sheffield United will be without defender Matthew Kilgallon who suffered a knock in during a 1-0 away win at Reading. They will also miss attacking midfielder Brian Howard. With Burnley being at home and desperately needing at least one point to stay in the race for promotion I think they will be more motivated to avoid a loss, while Sheffield United would be satisfied with a draw.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) This game has been postponed.
5) The Washington Nationals are 1-11 this season. They simply have to start winning some games at some point because teams just do not finish the season with 14 wins. They will be starting Jordan Zimmerman who is a highly touted prospect. The Braves will counter with Derek Lowe who has a strong track-record against the Nationals. Lowe has an ERA of 2.81 in three starts this season, having given up 5 runs in 16 innings. Last season he fairly dominated the Nationals with a 0.56 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) in 13 innings and an ERA of 1.13. The Braves look like a lock here, but with Washington due for a win and the potential of Zimmerman they could easily lose a low scoring game.
UPDATE: The 5-year $45 milion deal was for 3B Ryan Zimmerman, unrelated to Jordan Zimmerman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Dirk Nowtizki averaged 34.3 points and rebounds during the season while Tim Duncan averaged 30.0 points and rebounds. In the last 5 games of the season where Duncan played meaningful minutes he averaged 32.8. Nowitzki also stepped up his game, averaging 40.2 rebounds and points in his last 5 games of the regular season. In three meetings during the regular season Nowtizki won this prop once in San Antonio, 37-34 and once in Dallas, 36-31. Duncan won once in Dallas 46-45 and did not play in the third game of the season series. In Game 1 of this series Nowtizki had 19 points and 8 rebounds. Tim Duncan had 27 points and 9 rebounds. Last year against the Hornets Nowitzki averaged 34.8 points and rebounds while going down in 5 games. In the Spurs’ series against the Hornets that same year Duncan averaged 27.1 points and rebounds while winning a 7 game series. After losing Game 1 of this series I think Duncan, out of the two, will be the one to step up his game which was already more than enough to out pace Nowitzki in points and rebounds. Nowitzki has the greater potential to win this prop but I’m inclined to go with the player who won in the previous game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) The starting pitchers in this game are Jon Garland for the Diamondbacks and Jason Marquis for the Rockies. Garland has a year-to-date ERA of 8.44 and is 1-1 in decisions. He’s also struck out 2 batters while walking 8 which is poor for him when he struck out 1.5 times as many batters as he walked last year. Marquis has a 1.93 ERA so far this year and has a 2-0 record in decisions. Both he and Garland have been around 4.50 in ERA for most of their careers. I like Colorado in this game because of how cold the Diamondbacks have been when it comes to hitting the ball recently. They have a .126 batting average in their last 3 games, including a .167 slugging average against Sanchez on Friday night, a pitcher against whom their batting order has a career slugging average of .680 against. Colorado has been only slightly better with a .214 batting average in their past 3 games. At least Colorado has scored 10 runs in those games, whereas Arizona has been limited to 4 runs. Marquis has been pitching well compared to Garland so far this season as well.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Sunday, April 19, 2009
April 19th, 2009 Picks
One of the worst 2-2-0 days I can remember. If you avoided my NBA picks there’s a good chance you went 4-0-0 today. Oy. My first pick of the day was Justin Leonard to card a lower front 9 score. Leonard raced to a two stroke lead after three by birdying the first three holes. He stuck the ball within four feet of the hole for birdie putts on the first two holes and sank a 12 foot putt for birdie on the third. Baddeley and Leonard hit par on the next three holes and Leonard took a three stroke lead with his fourth birdie on the par-3 #7. Leonard hit into a green-side bunker on #8 and took two strokes to get himself out of it. He sank a 10 foot putt for bogey to avoid giving back two strokes. Baddeley hit his second birdie on #9 but Leonard hit par to preserve a one stroke lead. Baddeley was 2 under while Leonard was 3 under.
My next pick was Paul Pierce to score more points. Derrick Rose showed why he is the Rookie of the Year in spectacular fashion. He would have won the prop easily even without including his 11 assists. He had 20 points by half time while Pierce had only taken 4 shots by the half and scored 4 points. By the time the Bulls had pulled of the upset victory in overtime Rose had 36 points, tying the record for most points by a rookie in their first playoff game set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Wilt Chamberlain is second on that list with 35 in his first playoff game. That Rose is a guard makes it all the more remarkable.
My third pick was the Chicago Cubs. St. Louis took an early lead when Ryan Dempster walked the first two batters at the bottom of the Cardinals’ order to start off the third inning. He gave up two more hits and walked another batter and the Cardinals took a 3-0 lead. The Cubs got a run back in the bottom of the inning but Khalil Greene put St. Louis back on top with a lead-off solo home run in the fourth. By the middle of the 8th inning the score was tied 5-5 and it remained that way until the bottom of the 11th whenl Aramis Ramirez had his first hit of the day, a home run, to score two for the Cubs and win the game 7-5.
My last pick of the day was the Portland Trailblazers. Yao Ming was stellar as he made every shot he attempted in the game, scoring 24 points in 24 minutes of play. Brandon Roy had a good game, but got no support from LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw. Houston started to run away with things as the first half ended and continued in that vein throughout the second half, eventually winning Game 1, on the road, 108-81. So on to the picks.
1) Joe Durant vs. Rory McIlroy – McIlroy cards a lower front 9 score
2) Marseille @ Lorient – Marseille win
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – New York
4) Brian Gay vs. Rest of Field – Gay wins the tournament
5) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
6) Deron Williams vs. Pau Gasol – Williams pts. and ast.
7) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
8) Andre Iguodala vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Iguodala pts., reb., and ast.
9) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – Vancouver
10) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Johnson pts. and ast.
11) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – St. Louis
12) Albert Pujols vs. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano hits, runs, and RBIs
13) Chris Paul vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
Analysispicks
1) Joe Durant has plenty of experience on this course. He’s played 27 rounds from 2001-present. His average front 9 score in that time is -0.3, with a median score of even par and a range of scores of (-5 to +4). This is Rory McIlroy’s first appearance in this event. He has carded scores of even par, 1 under, and 1 over. There are a couple of par-5’s McIlroy has birdied in two consecutive rounds. All of his bogeys have been on different holes. He double bogeyed #7 today after laying his tee shot up short into the water. He also bogeyed #4 by hitting into the water. Durant also has bogeys sprinkled on all different holes through the first three rounds so he’s not likely to bogey on any particular hole. He picked up his only two birdies on the front nine in the tournament today on #2 and #9. It’s close but McIlroy is more likely to continue to birdie those par 5’s and is not likely to pick up penalty strokes again. Durant could sink one or more 10 foot putts this time, however, and push or win by a stroke.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Marseille are the current leaders of the French Ligue 1 with 61 points. Lorient currently lie in 11th place with 38 points. The 25 point lead for Marseille is more than enough reason to choose against Lorient at home with the ‘draw’ option. Marseille were knocked out of the UEFA Cup by Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday so their only hope for a trophy out of this season comes from winning their domestic league title. They are 1 point ahead of Lyon and will be motivated to come out of this game with a victory and three points. Marseille will be missing striker Mamadou Niang and defender Taye Taiwo along with midfielder Julien Rodriguez. The absence of these players may be a concern against stronger competition, but not here. Lorient will be missing Marchal, Boutruche, and Soro on defense, with Marchal being the most notable absence. Le Pen and Pinard in the fore field will also miss, though they have few starts this season to begin with. Notable results, Lorient lost at home to Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 on March 9th. Marseille defeated Paris Saint-Germain away 3-1 on March 15th.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Brian Gay currently sits at 13 under with a three stroke lead over the rest of the field. Wilkinson, Janzen, Hamilton, Briny Baird, and Davis Love III are the main threats with Wilkinson at 10 under par and Baird and Love III at 7 under par. Davis Love III should be considered the main threat here. The other challengers are playing above themselves and have already carded rounds of 66 or 65 which they’re not likely to do again in this event. All should hit 69 or worse. Davis Love III’s best round thus far has been a 67, but in the past 5 years his best final round at Harbour Town has been 69. Gay missed the cut in this event last year and his final round scores the two years previous were 73 and 70. That 73 came after hitting a 67 in the 3rd round. 70 or 71 are likely from Gay, but 72 or 73 are just as likely. There is a pretty good chance Gay wins this one with the players below him being unlikely to mount a run.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Silence is the norm for the Diamondbacks and Giants recently, as in the crack of the bat is not heard too often. In the first two games of the series between these teams there have been 4 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are averaging 3.4 runs in their past 5 games and the Giants have averaged 2 runs in their last 5. Randy Johnson and Max Scherzer are the starting pitchers today. Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA in 5 innings pitched against St. Louis this season. Randy Johnson has an 11.42 ERA in 82/3 innings pitched this season, 5 against the Brewers and 32/3 against the Dodgers. Johnson has recorded 12 strikeouts in those 82/3 innings compared to 4 walked. Scherzer has walked two batters and struck out only one in his first start. These teams have not faced these pitchers very much in their careers. Johnson’s opponents, however, have a slugging percentage of 0.707 in 82/3 innings. The Cardinals had a slugging percentage of .364 against Scherzer. Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio is impressive at 3.0, especially compared to Scherzer’s 0.5 ratio. With the bats being quiet Johnson’s propensity for giving up big hits seems less important than his ability to strike out batters. The bullpen for the Giants is not too strong however, and with their bats being quiet as well it will be difficult for them to maintain a lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) I haven’t looked at the stats behind this one, the story behind the prop if you will. All I know is this is Hedo Turkoglu’s first game back from injury and limited production offensively on return from injury is the rule in basketball, even for the most talented players in the league.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Dwyane Wade averages 30.2 points on the year compared to 27.2 points and assists for Joe Johnson. Wade has averaged 27.0 points in his last 5 road games. Johnson has averaged 25.8 points and assists in his last 5 home games. In their three meaningful head to head matchups during the regular season Wade scored 21, 35, and 21 points. Johnson had 24 points, 4 assists, 21 points, 3 assists, and 24 points, 5 assists, winning this prop 2 out of 3 times this season. Last year Wade averaged 23.5 points in the playoffs and Johnson averaged 24.0 points and assists. Wade is the more consistent of the two, but if Johnson is on his game he should win easily. I like Johnson at home to be on his game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) This matchup has been cancelled.
13) During the season Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony each averaged 22.8 points per game. Last year in the playoffs Paul averaged 25.4 points in home games and 22.2 points away. In the past two years in the playoffs Anthony has averaged 23.5 points at home 26.0 points away. It looks like Paul thrives on his home court more than on the road, whereas Anthony is the type who steps up his game more on the road. In the regular season Paul averaged 26.0 points at Denver compared to Carmelo who averaged 23.0 points at home against the Hornets. Both players are capable of scoring 30-plus, especially in the playoffs. I have to give Chris Paul the advantage here as his last 5 road games of the season he has averaged 29.2 points, scoring 26, 9, 42, 26, and 43 points. Anthony averaged 24.4 points in his last 5 home games. On the other hand, Paul will likely try to build his teammates’ confidence in Game 1.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was Paul Pierce to score more points. Derrick Rose showed why he is the Rookie of the Year in spectacular fashion. He would have won the prop easily even without including his 11 assists. He had 20 points by half time while Pierce had only taken 4 shots by the half and scored 4 points. By the time the Bulls had pulled of the upset victory in overtime Rose had 36 points, tying the record for most points by a rookie in their first playoff game set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Wilt Chamberlain is second on that list with 35 in his first playoff game. That Rose is a guard makes it all the more remarkable.
My third pick was the Chicago Cubs. St. Louis took an early lead when Ryan Dempster walked the first two batters at the bottom of the Cardinals’ order to start off the third inning. He gave up two more hits and walked another batter and the Cardinals took a 3-0 lead. The Cubs got a run back in the bottom of the inning but Khalil Greene put St. Louis back on top with a lead-off solo home run in the fourth. By the middle of the 8th inning the score was tied 5-5 and it remained that way until the bottom of the 11th whenl Aramis Ramirez had his first hit of the day, a home run, to score two for the Cubs and win the game 7-5.
My last pick of the day was the Portland Trailblazers. Yao Ming was stellar as he made every shot he attempted in the game, scoring 24 points in 24 minutes of play. Brandon Roy had a good game, but got no support from LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw. Houston started to run away with things as the first half ended and continued in that vein throughout the second half, eventually winning Game 1, on the road, 108-81. So on to the picks.
1) Joe Durant vs. Rory McIlroy – McIlroy cards a lower front 9 score
2) Marseille @ Lorient – Marseille win
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – New York
4) Brian Gay vs. Rest of Field – Gay wins the tournament
5) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Philadelphia
6) Deron Williams vs. Pau Gasol – Williams pts. and ast.
7) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
8) Andre Iguodala vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Iguodala pts., reb., and ast.
9) Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues – Vancouver
10) Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson – Johnson pts. and ast.
11) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – St. Louis
12) Albert Pujols vs. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano hits, runs, and RBIs
13) Chris Paul vs. Carmelo Anthony – Anthony pts.
Analysispicks
1) Joe Durant has plenty of experience on this course. He’s played 27 rounds from 2001-present. His average front 9 score in that time is -0.3, with a median score of even par and a range of scores of (-5 to +4). This is Rory McIlroy’s first appearance in this event. He has carded scores of even par, 1 under, and 1 over. There are a couple of par-5’s McIlroy has birdied in two consecutive rounds. All of his bogeys have been on different holes. He double bogeyed #7 today after laying his tee shot up short into the water. He also bogeyed #4 by hitting into the water. Durant also has bogeys sprinkled on all different holes through the first three rounds so he’s not likely to bogey on any particular hole. He picked up his only two birdies on the front nine in the tournament today on #2 and #9. It’s close but McIlroy is more likely to continue to birdie those par 5’s and is not likely to pick up penalty strokes again. Durant could sink one or more 10 foot putts this time, however, and push or win by a stroke.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Marseille are the current leaders of the French Ligue 1 with 61 points. Lorient currently lie in 11th place with 38 points. The 25 point lead for Marseille is more than enough reason to choose against Lorient at home with the ‘draw’ option. Marseille were knocked out of the UEFA Cup by Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday so their only hope for a trophy out of this season comes from winning their domestic league title. They are 1 point ahead of Lyon and will be motivated to come out of this game with a victory and three points. Marseille will be missing striker Mamadou Niang and defender Taye Taiwo along with midfielder Julien Rodriguez. The absence of these players may be a concern against stronger competition, but not here. Lorient will be missing Marchal, Boutruche, and Soro on defense, with Marchal being the most notable absence. Le Pen and Pinard in the fore field will also miss, though they have few starts this season to begin with. Notable results, Lorient lost at home to Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 on March 9th. Marseille defeated Paris Saint-Germain away 3-1 on March 15th.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Brian Gay currently sits at 13 under with a three stroke lead over the rest of the field. Wilkinson, Janzen, Hamilton, Briny Baird, and Davis Love III are the main threats with Wilkinson at 10 under par and Baird and Love III at 7 under par. Davis Love III should be considered the main threat here. The other challengers are playing above themselves and have already carded rounds of 66 or 65 which they’re not likely to do again in this event. All should hit 69 or worse. Davis Love III’s best round thus far has been a 67, but in the past 5 years his best final round at Harbour Town has been 69. Gay missed the cut in this event last year and his final round scores the two years previous were 73 and 70. That 73 came after hitting a 67 in the 3rd round. 70 or 71 are likely from Gay, but 72 or 73 are just as likely. There is a pretty good chance Gay wins this one with the players below him being unlikely to mount a run.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Silence is the norm for the Diamondbacks and Giants recently, as in the crack of the bat is not heard too often. In the first two games of the series between these teams there have been 4 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are averaging 3.4 runs in their past 5 games and the Giants have averaged 2 runs in their last 5. Randy Johnson and Max Scherzer are the starting pitchers today. Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA in 5 innings pitched against St. Louis this season. Randy Johnson has an 11.42 ERA in 82/3 innings pitched this season, 5 against the Brewers and 32/3 against the Dodgers. Johnson has recorded 12 strikeouts in those 82/3 innings compared to 4 walked. Scherzer has walked two batters and struck out only one in his first start. These teams have not faced these pitchers very much in their careers. Johnson’s opponents, however, have a slugging percentage of 0.707 in 82/3 innings. The Cardinals had a slugging percentage of .364 against Scherzer. Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio is impressive at 3.0, especially compared to Scherzer’s 0.5 ratio. With the bats being quiet Johnson’s propensity for giving up big hits seems less important than his ability to strike out batters. The bullpen for the Giants is not too strong however, and with their bats being quiet as well it will be difficult for them to maintain a lead.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) I haven’t looked at the stats behind this one, the story behind the prop if you will. All I know is this is Hedo Turkoglu’s first game back from injury and limited production offensively on return from injury is the rule in basketball, even for the most talented players in the league.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Dwyane Wade averages 30.2 points on the year compared to 27.2 points and assists for Joe Johnson. Wade has averaged 27.0 points in his last 5 road games. Johnson has averaged 25.8 points and assists in his last 5 home games. In their three meaningful head to head matchups during the regular season Wade scored 21, 35, and 21 points. Johnson had 24 points, 4 assists, 21 points, 3 assists, and 24 points, 5 assists, winning this prop 2 out of 3 times this season. Last year Wade averaged 23.5 points in the playoffs and Johnson averaged 24.0 points and assists. Wade is the more consistent of the two, but if Johnson is on his game he should win easily. I like Johnson at home to be on his game.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) This matchup has been cancelled.
13) During the season Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony each averaged 22.8 points per game. Last year in the playoffs Paul averaged 25.4 points in home games and 22.2 points away. In the past two years in the playoffs Anthony has averaged 23.5 points at home 26.0 points away. It looks like Paul thrives on his home court more than on the road, whereas Anthony is the type who steps up his game more on the road. In the regular season Paul averaged 26.0 points at Denver compared to Carmelo who averaged 23.0 points at home against the Hornets. Both players are capable of scoring 30-plus, especially in the playoffs. I have to give Chris Paul the advantage here as his last 5 road games of the season he has averaged 29.2 points, scoring 26, 9, 42, 26, and 43 points. Anthony averaged 24.4 points in his last 5 home games. On the other hand, Paul will likely try to build his teammates’ confidence in Game 1.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Saturday, April 18, 2009
April 18th, 2009 Picks
A bit better on the day at 2-0-1. My first pick was Davis Love III to card a lower front 9 score. Davis Love III took a lead early as he set himself up with a 30 foot chip for eagle that became a three foot putt for birdie on the 2nd hole. Boo Weekley hit a bogey on the 3rd to go down two strokes. Both bogeyed the 4th hole, and Weekley hit a birdie on the 5th. Love III extended his lead to three strokes nonetheless by making a 26 foot putt for eagle. Going into the 8th hole Weekley was still down three strokes. He was in position to hold par but a two-putt from 8 feet out on the 8th, and a four-putt on the 9th lead to a bogey and double bogey. Davis Love III finished with a pair of pars and carded a 2-under 34 on the front nine, while Weekley finished with a 4-over 40. As a side-note Weekley carded a back 9 one stroke better than Love III.
My second pick was Paul Casey to card a lower 2nd round score. It was a very close match with Casey hitting two birdies, three bogeys, and 7 pars through the first 12 holes and Zach Johnson hitting two birdies, a bogey, a double bogey, and 8 pars through the first 12. From there Zach Johnson began to falter as he dropped behind a stroke or more on 5 of the final 6 holes. Casey hit two birdies, one on the par-5 15th and one on the par-4 18th as he finally started to drop his shorter putts. Zach Johnson hit into the water on the 14th hole to score a double bogey to go along with two other bogeys. Casey finished with a 70 while Johnson finished the round with a 76.
My final pick was the Flyers to score more goals than the Hurricanes in their respective games. The Flyers scored 1 goal in the first period, but the Hurricanes put in a final minute goal to also score in the 1st of their game. The Hurricanes were held scoreless thereafter but the Devils could not get past Cam Ward. Philadelphia scored early in the 3rd period for their second goal, but gave up a late power play goal to the Penguins. Both games went into overtime with the Flyers having scored 2 to 1 goal for the Hurricanes. Philadelphia was hit with a couple of penalties and could not stand firm against the Penguins in the resulting 5 on 3 situation. Carolina was aggressive from the start in their OT, and coupled with two injuries to the Devils’ front lines were able to score a goal to win their game. The prop ended in a push with both teams scoring two goals. So, we find ourselves again at the time where we go to the picks.
1) Aaron Baddeley vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bolton Wanderers vs. Portsmouth – Portsmouth win
3) Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
4) Derrick Rose vs. Paul Pierce – Pierce pts.
5) Brian Gay vs. Todd Hamilton – Gay cards a lower third round score
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Mo Williams – Hamilton pts.
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins – Los Angeles
9) Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
10) Jeff Gordon vs. Tony Stewart – Gordon has a better final position
11) Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
12) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Detroit
13) Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers – Portland
14) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann – Soszynski
Analysis
1) Both of these players have won this event in the past, Aaron Baddeley in 2006 and Justin Leonard in 2002. Leonard is 8-5-1 in this prop against Baddeley from 2006-present, yet he has placed lower than Baddeley consistently. That suggests to me it is the back 9 which Leonard has problems with. Looking at Baddeley’s second round he hit quite a few mid-to-long range iron shots to within 10 feet of the hole. That is very good, but even for Tiger Woods is considered lucky to happen on consecutive holes. I think Leonard will do better sinking his mid-range putts and Baddeley will be forced to two-putt for par more often. Each player’s median score is -1 on the front 9 from rounds played in the years 2001-present. Baddeley’s average score is -1.3 and he has carded scores ranging from -6 to +2. Leonard’s average score is -1.0 and his scores range from -5 to +2. I think Baddeley scores -2 at best while Leonard has a good chance to score -2 or -3. Assuming Baddeley has better odds of hitting 2 under, but worse odds of hitting any other score between -4 and +2, I’d say Baddeley’s chances of winning are 40.6%, Leonard’s chances are 41.8%, and the probablity of a push are 17.6%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Portsmouth sit at even odds to win this game, while a win or a draw for Bolton Wanderers are at 25% and 29%, respectively. That gives Bolton Wanderers a slight edge odds-wise, though either golf pick holds better odds for not losing. Both teams are at full strength though Danny Shittu is a major doubt for Bolton on defense. Bolton will not want to find themselves down at half time as they have not won or drawn a match on the road when in that position. Bolton Wanderers are 0-2-3 (W-D-L) in their past 5 away matches, drawing to West Bromwich Albion and Blackburn Rovers, while losing to Stoke City, Chelsea, and Everton. Portsmouth are 2-1-2 in their past 5 home matches, defeating Everton and Manchester City, while losing to Chelsea and Liverpool and drawing to West Bromwich Albion. Bolton were missing Glenn Johnson on defense and Sean Davis up front in the West Brom match. Both players have started 24 to 25 matches this season. I think Portsmouth has strong victories against stronger teams than Bolton, while Bolton have not managed to win on the road at all recently, managing draws against sides with worse home form than Portsmouth.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Derrick Rose averaged 23.1 points and assists during the regular season and had a very nice finish with a number of terrific games. He averaged 18.7 points and 7.6 assists in the last 10 games of the season. Paul Pierce averaged 20.5 points during the season and 21.9 points in the last 10 games he played. During the season the Bulls and the Celtics played one another three times. Rose had 19 points and assists in all three meetings and Pierce had 14, 16, and 37 points. In the low scoring games Kevin Garnett played and Pierce was in for less than 35 minutes in big victories for the Celtics. He played 39 minutes without Kevin Garnett in the 37 point game. Pierce is the leader of the Celtics and their number one scoring option without Garnett on the floor. This is Rose’s first playoff game and there is a chance his inexperience could lead to turnovers and forcing bad shots. Rajon Rondo is a good defender with playoff experience so the 19 points and assists for Rose against the Celtics could be his ceiling.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Brian Gay and Todd Hamilton have hit rounds of 66, 66, 67, and 68 between them so far at Harbour Town this year. The 68 and 66 are the best Hamilton has ever scored in playing this event from 2004 till now. Gay has carded a round of 66 once before and 67 three times from 2001 till now. Gay’s average score is 71.1 and his median score is 71. Hamilton’s average score is 72.8 and his median score is 73.5. This year and in 2008 Gay has missed the cut in 11 events, finished in the top 10 seven times and won 1 event. In that same time Hamilton has missed the cut in 18 events and has not finished in the top 10 a single time. Gay has proven he has the potential to play at this level in the past two years. Hamilton looks to be overachieving, where even if he hits a 75 today he looks to put in his best performance of the past two years.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) What can I say here other than that the team with home court advantage has a great advantage in Game 1. Maybe it’s that the road team knows they’ll have another chance at stealing the next game and even then can even the series up at home and ride that momentum to a road win in Game 5. Whatever it is Dallas’ best chance lies in outstanding play by Jason Terry and Josh Howard. If Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea can add strong games on top of that they could win here. The Spurs are missing Manu Ginobili but it is not an unfamiliar position for them to be in and they’ve won without him plenty during the season. More likely than not Dallas’ younger players will have so-so games in a loss.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) The pitching matchup in this game features Edwin Jackson for the Tigers and Erik Bedard for the Mariners. Jackson has pitched 131/3 innings this year and given up 5 earned runs, 4 to the Texas Rangers, and 1 to the Toronto Blue Jays. Bedard has pitched 131/3 innings and given up 3 earned runs, all to the Minnesota Twins. Last year Bedard had an ERA of 1.80 against the Tigers and Jackson had an ERA of 0.60 against the Mariners and both pitchers won the decisions when they pitched. The batter v. pitcher stats show the Mariners with a career slugging average of .442 against Jackson and the Tigers with a slugging average of .458. Jackson’s strikeout to walk ratio is 4.0 against the Mariners while Bedard’s is 2.0 against the Tigers. It will be difficult for the Tigers to win on the road in this game against Mariners team improved from last year but Jackson is the pitcher on the mound to do it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) In the Western Conference the team with home court advantage ends up winning the series something like 75% of the time. That team wins game 1 at least that often. The Blazers are continuing to play their best basketball of the season. Yao Ming will provide matchup problems, as he does for any opponent. Scola, Battier, and Artest will need to have great nights offensively to keep up with Portland’s offense, and a strong defensive night will help with that. In the end it will probably be Portland’s bench that extends their leads and keeps the game out of reach for the Rockets, even if the Rockets play an exceptional game.
Confidence: W7 streak or les
My second pick was Paul Casey to card a lower 2nd round score. It was a very close match with Casey hitting two birdies, three bogeys, and 7 pars through the first 12 holes and Zach Johnson hitting two birdies, a bogey, a double bogey, and 8 pars through the first 12. From there Zach Johnson began to falter as he dropped behind a stroke or more on 5 of the final 6 holes. Casey hit two birdies, one on the par-5 15th and one on the par-4 18th as he finally started to drop his shorter putts. Zach Johnson hit into the water on the 14th hole to score a double bogey to go along with two other bogeys. Casey finished with a 70 while Johnson finished the round with a 76.
My final pick was the Flyers to score more goals than the Hurricanes in their respective games. The Flyers scored 1 goal in the first period, but the Hurricanes put in a final minute goal to also score in the 1st of their game. The Hurricanes were held scoreless thereafter but the Devils could not get past Cam Ward. Philadelphia scored early in the 3rd period for their second goal, but gave up a late power play goal to the Penguins. Both games went into overtime with the Flyers having scored 2 to 1 goal for the Hurricanes. Philadelphia was hit with a couple of penalties and could not stand firm against the Penguins in the resulting 5 on 3 situation. Carolina was aggressive from the start in their OT, and coupled with two injuries to the Devils’ front lines were able to score a goal to win their game. The prop ended in a push with both teams scoring two goals. So, we find ourselves again at the time where we go to the picks.
1) Aaron Baddeley vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower front 9 score
2) Bolton Wanderers vs. Portsmouth – Portsmouth win
3) Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
4) Derrick Rose vs. Paul Pierce – Pierce pts.
5) Brian Gay vs. Todd Hamilton – Gay cards a lower third round score
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Mo Williams – Hamilton pts.
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
8) Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins – Los Angeles
9) Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
10) Jeff Gordon vs. Tony Stewart – Gordon has a better final position
11) Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
12) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Detroit
13) Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers – Portland
14) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann – Soszynski
Analysis
1) Both of these players have won this event in the past, Aaron Baddeley in 2006 and Justin Leonard in 2002. Leonard is 8-5-1 in this prop against Baddeley from 2006-present, yet he has placed lower than Baddeley consistently. That suggests to me it is the back 9 which Leonard has problems with. Looking at Baddeley’s second round he hit quite a few mid-to-long range iron shots to within 10 feet of the hole. That is very good, but even for Tiger Woods is considered lucky to happen on consecutive holes. I think Leonard will do better sinking his mid-range putts and Baddeley will be forced to two-putt for par more often. Each player’s median score is -1 on the front 9 from rounds played in the years 2001-present. Baddeley’s average score is -1.3 and he has carded scores ranging from -6 to +2. Leonard’s average score is -1.0 and his scores range from -5 to +2. I think Baddeley scores -2 at best while Leonard has a good chance to score -2 or -3. Assuming Baddeley has better odds of hitting 2 under, but worse odds of hitting any other score between -4 and +2, I’d say Baddeley’s chances of winning are 40.6%, Leonard’s chances are 41.8%, and the probablity of a push are 17.6%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Portsmouth sit at even odds to win this game, while a win or a draw for Bolton Wanderers are at 25% and 29%, respectively. That gives Bolton Wanderers a slight edge odds-wise, though either golf pick holds better odds for not losing. Both teams are at full strength though Danny Shittu is a major doubt for Bolton on defense. Bolton will not want to find themselves down at half time as they have not won or drawn a match on the road when in that position. Bolton Wanderers are 0-2-3 (W-D-L) in their past 5 away matches, drawing to West Bromwich Albion and Blackburn Rovers, while losing to Stoke City, Chelsea, and Everton. Portsmouth are 2-1-2 in their past 5 home matches, defeating Everton and Manchester City, while losing to Chelsea and Liverpool and drawing to West Bromwich Albion. Bolton were missing Glenn Johnson on defense and Sean Davis up front in the West Brom match. Both players have started 24 to 25 matches this season. I think Portsmouth has strong victories against stronger teams than Bolton, while Bolton have not managed to win on the road at all recently, managing draws against sides with worse home form than Portsmouth.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Derrick Rose averaged 23.1 points and assists during the regular season and had a very nice finish with a number of terrific games. He averaged 18.7 points and 7.6 assists in the last 10 games of the season. Paul Pierce averaged 20.5 points during the season and 21.9 points in the last 10 games he played. During the season the Bulls and the Celtics played one another three times. Rose had 19 points and assists in all three meetings and Pierce had 14, 16, and 37 points. In the low scoring games Kevin Garnett played and Pierce was in for less than 35 minutes in big victories for the Celtics. He played 39 minutes without Kevin Garnett in the 37 point game. Pierce is the leader of the Celtics and their number one scoring option without Garnett on the floor. This is Rose’s first playoff game and there is a chance his inexperience could lead to turnovers and forcing bad shots. Rajon Rondo is a good defender with playoff experience so the 19 points and assists for Rose against the Celtics could be his ceiling.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Brian Gay and Todd Hamilton have hit rounds of 66, 66, 67, and 68 between them so far at Harbour Town this year. The 68 and 66 are the best Hamilton has ever scored in playing this event from 2004 till now. Gay has carded a round of 66 once before and 67 three times from 2001 till now. Gay’s average score is 71.1 and his median score is 71. Hamilton’s average score is 72.8 and his median score is 73.5. This year and in 2008 Gay has missed the cut in 11 events, finished in the top 10 seven times and won 1 event. In that same time Hamilton has missed the cut in 18 events and has not finished in the top 10 a single time. Gay has proven he has the potential to play at this level in the past two years. Hamilton looks to be overachieving, where even if he hits a 75 today he looks to put in his best performance of the past two years.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) What can I say here other than that the team with home court advantage has a great advantage in Game 1. Maybe it’s that the road team knows they’ll have another chance at stealing the next game and even then can even the series up at home and ride that momentum to a road win in Game 5. Whatever it is Dallas’ best chance lies in outstanding play by Jason Terry and Josh Howard. If Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea can add strong games on top of that they could win here. The Spurs are missing Manu Ginobili but it is not an unfamiliar position for them to be in and they’ve won without him plenty during the season. More likely than not Dallas’ younger players will have so-so games in a loss.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) The pitching matchup in this game features Edwin Jackson for the Tigers and Erik Bedard for the Mariners. Jackson has pitched 131/3 innings this year and given up 5 earned runs, 4 to the Texas Rangers, and 1 to the Toronto Blue Jays. Bedard has pitched 131/3 innings and given up 3 earned runs, all to the Minnesota Twins. Last year Bedard had an ERA of 1.80 against the Tigers and Jackson had an ERA of 0.60 against the Mariners and both pitchers won the decisions when they pitched. The batter v. pitcher stats show the Mariners with a career slugging average of .442 against Jackson and the Tigers with a slugging average of .458. Jackson’s strikeout to walk ratio is 4.0 against the Mariners while Bedard’s is 2.0 against the Tigers. It will be difficult for the Tigers to win on the road in this game against Mariners team improved from last year but Jackson is the pitcher on the mound to do it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) In the Western Conference the team with home court advantage ends up winning the series something like 75% of the time. That team wins game 1 at least that often. The Blazers are continuing to play their best basketball of the season. Yao Ming will provide matchup problems, as he does for any opponent. Scola, Battier, and Artest will need to have great nights offensively to keep up with Portland’s offense, and a strong defensive night will help with that. In the end it will probably be Portland’s bench that extends their leads and keeps the game out of reach for the Rockets, even if the Rockets play an exceptional game.
Confidence: W7 streak or les
Friday, April 17, 2009
April 17th, 2009 Picks
Yuck, 2-2-1 on the day. My first pick was for Johnson or Immelman to card a lower first 9 score. It started off well enough with Johnson and Immelman keeping pace with Villegas as each player had a bogey in the first two holes. Over the next five holes Immelman and Johnson had two birdies apiece while Villegas saved par time and again with excellent long putts, but failed to pick up birdies with not so excellent short putts. Johnson and Immelman were each up two strokes on Villegas going into the penultimate hole of the prop. Villegas hit par again while Johnson bogeyed and Immelman picked up his third birdie of the round. On the final hole, a par 4, Villegas missed the green with his second shot and two-putted from 10 feet away to card his second bogey to go along with 7 pars while Immelman carded his fourth birdie to finish five strokes ahead of Villegas and four strokes ahead of Johnson.
My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.
My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.
My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.
My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Pa̤os de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora РPa̤os de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
My second pick was two goals or fewer in the match between Dynamo Kiev and Paris Saint-Germain. Dynamo Kiev scored quickly at 4’ when Ismael Bangoura scored from just outside the penalty box off a set piece. Disaster struck for Paris Saint-Germain when the French goalie, Landreau, attempted to clear a headed ball out with a punch. Instead of punching the ball he missed, only managing to have the ball glance off the back of his fist and into the net. The score at the half was 2-0 and it only took Dynamo Kiev 16 minutes or so to strike again. This time Landreau parried a shot and Ognjen Vukojevic was there to put the rebound home. The match ended with Dynamo Kiev winning 3-0 and advancing to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup.
My third pick was Adam Wainwright strikeouts. Wainwright found himself having given up one more hit than he had gotten strikeouts throughout the game. In his final inning on the mound he had given up 6 hits and gotten 4 strikeouts, but managed to catch Bradley looking and Soto swinging. Wainwright was relieved in the 7th inning ending the matchup at 6-6. One of the six hits was questionable as there appeared to be a clear error on the part of the shortstop in mishandling the ball. At first an error was credited, but was changed to a double for Fukudome in the next inning. One of Wainwright’s strikeouts came on a bunt foul with two strikes on the batter.
My fourth pick was the Chicago White Sox. Danks did a great job, allowing two hits and one run through 6 innings while recording 8 strikeouts. Niemann had a good game as well, although he gave up 9 hits the Sox only managed to score two runs. Niemann also walked only a single batter. The White Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 9th but the Rays scored again on a ground out RBI. The White Sox were very lucky to hold on for the 3-2 victory as they only scored 3 runs on 14 hits.
My final pick was 6 goals or more in the Ducks/Sharks game. It was a very poor choice. There were zero goals through two periods as the two teams combined for 33 shots in the first 40 minutes. The final period was much the same but the Ducks managed to squeeze two shots by Nabokov as they won game 1 in San Jose 2-0. So on to the picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Boo Weekley – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Joba Chamberlain SO vs. New York Yankees runs – Chamberlain records more SO
3) Paul Casey vs. Dustin Johnson – Casey cards a lower 2nd round score
4) Pa̤os de Ferreira @ Estrela Amadora РPa̤os de Ferreira win or draw
5) New England @ DC United – DC United win
6) Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes – Flyers score more goals (vs. Pittsburgh)
7) Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch has a better final position
9) Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – Arizona
Analysis
1) Weekley is recovering from an injury and is experiencing back pain, otherwise I would say he wins with tremendous odds on his side. Here’s an interview he made after his round today. The back 9 of Harbour Town is full of sharp doglegs with the second leg being unhittable or guarded by hazards. It’s full of short par 4’s that require a conservative short game. The front 9 consists more of longer, straighter holes, with fewer hazards where hitting the long ball is more of an advantage. I feel like Boo Weekley will feel the effects from his round the previous day and the early tee time will not help as that is generally when back pain is most severe. Even with therapy prior to the first round Weekley admitted to feeling pain whenever he tried to hit a long ball, and only that the pain was not as bad as he expected. The second round may be a reality check for Weekley and I think even a stroke or two added on because of this will be all that Love III needs to win here.
Here is Boo Weekley’s round, and here is Davis Love III’s. Notice the layout of the holes in the front 9 compared to the back 9. Looking at their rounds it looks like Weekley did just fine, but would not have won without an eagle. After even par on the front 9 on this couse Love III has shot better and worse in the next round, so this is really a guessing game more than previous golf props.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Joba Chamberlain is a good strikeout pitcher. Last season he recorded 118 Ks in 100.1 innings pitched. From June till the end of the season Chamberlain started and had 10 of 11 starts with 5 K’s or more. He had a game with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings pitched against San Diego and a 7 inning shutout of the Red Sox with 9 K’s. Even as a relief pitcher he did well. Some games he did not record a strikeout in 1.0 inning but usually had 1 or 2 and had a game with 3 K’s in 1.0 inning against the Orioles once. The Yankees are averaging 5.3 runs per game in this young season. Last year they averaged 4.9 runs per game but scored more at Yankee Stadium, by 0.5 runs per game. I don’t think they’re in a major slump, averaging 9.2 hits per game. Anthony Reyes has not had a bad start to the season, with a 6.00 ERA against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs. The Indians won that game 8-4 so their bullpen performed alright against a good Toronto team. The Indians’ batters have been struck out 92 times in 10 games so far this season.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Paços de Ferreira and Estrela Amadora are removed from one another by only 3 points in the tables. I would go with the win or draw option based solely on that. There is the fact that Estrela Amadora players have not been paid since October and were recently on strike for a week, returning to training 9 days ago on the 8th. From TheLimeChicken there are reports that: “Estrela is without first choice keeper Nelson, midfielder Vidigal, and Senegalese forward Deme N’Diaye. No notable absences for Paços de Ferreira and Pedrinha will return from suspension.” With Estrela Amadora scoring earlier in the match on average and Paços de Ferreira conceding a goal in the first 20 minutes on average I would not be surprised to see Estrela Amadora take a 1-0 lead early on. If Paços de Ferreira cannot equalize by half-time their chances are slim to pull off the draw, having lost 6 and drawn once this season on the road when down at the half.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Both Brodeur and Fleury played great in the first games of their respective playoff series’. Each goalie gave up 1 goal with Fleury making 26 saves and Brodeur making 18 saves. Over the course of the season Brodeur has a 2.42 GAA and a .916 SV% compared to a 2.67 GAA and .912 SV% for Fleury. In 4 games against the Hurricanes this year Brodeur has a 1.67 GAA and an impressive .946 SV%, while Fleury had a 2.40 GAA and .910 SV% in 5 games against the Flyers. During the regular season Philadelphia scored a goal for every 9.2 shots on goal on average and Carolina scored a goal for every 11.2 shots on goal taken. It will probably be close with Carolina scoring 1-2 goals and Philadelphia scoring 1-3 goals. I would put the odds of Philadelphia winning this prop at 45.8%, of losing the prop at 35.6%, and of it ending in a push at 20.6%.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The pitcher vs. batter matchups in this game appear to strongly favor the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. The batting order for the Diamondbacks has a lifetime average of 0.68 total bases per at bat against Sanchez, while recording an RBI every 3.4 at bats. They have 6 home runs on Sanchez in 85 at bats, so it is almost a given that they will homer off of him tonight. The Giants have a lifetime average of 0.32 total bases per at bat, with an RBI recorded every 14.8 at bats. Sanchez also walks every sixth DIamondback he faces or so, while Haren has only 6 walks against the Giants in 133 at bats. Last April Haren had a lower ERA than Sanchez by a small margin. He has a 2.67 ERA against the Giants last season with a 2-1 record compared to an 8.83 ERA for Sanchez against the Diamondbacks with a 1-2 record. So far this season neither pitcher has recorded a win but Haren is giving up far fewer runs.
UPDATE: Arizona’s slugging percentage agianst Sanchez is .680, compared to .320 for the Giants against Haren.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
