April 3rd, 2009 Picks

Terrible day for my picks yesterday and another 1-1-0 day for me on the Streak. My first pick was the 5 goals or fewer in the Rangers/Hurricanes game. It was a risky pick with the past five games Lundqvist had started on the road for New York going over. The two teams each scored a goal in the first two periods with Cam Ward doing a fine job considering the number of shots New York was getting. Then in the third period the Hurricanes put two in the net about 30 seconds apart with under 8 minutes to go. Carolina won the game 4-2 and the under was blown away.

My next pick of the day was Denver over Utah. Utah got out to an early 11 point lead in the first quarter but had given it all back by the second. Denver went up by 11 by the half and the closest Utah got after that was 6 points. Denver ended up winning 114 to 104 thanks to the incredible performance by J.R. Smith who had 28 points off the bench and went 8 for 13 from behind the arc.

The one game that really surprised me was Real Salt Lake winning 4-1 against Columbus. I knew they were dangerous at home, but 4-1?! Obviously I had to give it up for them by adding them as a favorite team and changing my theme. RomoIsBurning and I picked up another game on arty and JAYJUDD after Phoenix defeated Los Angeles 2-1 with two goals in the third period. Al Montoya picked up his second win in his second NHL game and has a 0.50 GAA to go along with a 97.7 SV%. And now it’s time to go on to the picks.

1) Schalke 04 @ Arminia Bielefeld – Schalke 04 win
2) San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
3) Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
5) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Orlando
6) New Orleans Hornets @ Golden State Warriors – New Orleans
7) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.

Analysis
1) Arminia Bielefeld is 2-4-2 (W-D-L) in 2009 and 0-3-1 at home. Their lone loss came against VfL Wolfsburg who are tied for 2nd place with Bayern Munich. Their draws were against Hertha Berlin (1st), VfL Bochum (14th), and Eintracht Frankfurt (12th). Schalke 04 is 3-1-4 in 2009 and 1-0-3 on the road. Their lone win was against Eintracht Frankfurt and their three losses were against Hannover 96 (13th), VfL Bochum, and VfL Wolfsburg. Arminia Bielefeld is 15th in the tables and Schalke 04 is 8th. Schalke 04 and Arminia Bielefeld played to a 0-0 draw in a home game for Schalke 04 earlier this season, but Arminia Bielefeld are only 0-2-8 against Schalke 04 going back to 2003. The current European odds have Schalke winning at 44.9% and Arminia Bielefeld winning or drawing at 55.1%.
UPDATE: It’s rather silly, but according to the Arminia homepage the head official for the game today is from Essen which is 6 miles from Gelesenkirchen, where Schalke 04 play. Radim Kucera, a defender for Arminia, was injured in their last match against VfL Wolfsburg on March 21st and won’t play today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Washington has opened as -170 favorites at home and Buffalo as +150 underdogs. Washington is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 3-1-1 at home recently. They are on a two game winning streak and have won their last three at home. Buffalo are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road. They are on a one game losing streak, losing at Atlanta a couple of nights ago. Washington is 2-1-0 against Buffalo this season, winning the only previous meeting in Washington D.C.
Confidence: W8 streak or less

4) Calgary is 5-5-0 in their last 10 games and 2-3-0 on the road recently. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-0-3 at home. Calgary is currently on a one game winning streak after defeating Dallas 2-1 last night and Minnesota is on a one game losing streak. Minnesota is 0-3-2 against Calgary this season with both overtime losses occuring in Minnesota. One of those losses was the second game of a back-to-back for Calgary. Calgary is 2-8-1 in the second night of back-to-back games this season. Niklas Backstrom is a terrific goalie most nights and with Calgary slumping a bit lately this is Minnesota’s best and last chance at defeating Calgary this season. Calgary opened as +100 underdogs and Minnesota as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

7) Over the entire season Yao Ming has been averaging 29.4 points and rebounds compared to 27.3 points for Kobe Bryant. Kobe has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately as well, scoring 22.3 points in his last 10 games and 22.8 points in his last 5 home games. He certainly broke out of it the other night, however, with 30 points in a win at Milwaukee. Yao Ming has been putting up solid numbers lately with 28.8 points and rebounds in his last 10 games and 27.0 points and rebounds in his last 5 away games. He had 20 points and 14 rebounds the other night at Phoenix in a loss. Houston and the Lakers have met three times previously this season. Kobe Bryant won the first matchup 23 to 20, lost the second 33 to 36 and won the third 37 to 22. Houston is a good defensive squad but Kobe is terrific against good defenses and if Ron Artest starts jawing with him again Kobe is likely to go off for 30-plus again.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

April 2nd, 2009 Picks

Ah, missed out on the Suns so it was a 1-1-0 day today for me. My first pick was Turkey to win or draw. Senturk scored an easy tap in on an empty net after Casillas failed to hold on to or clear a shot and Turkey went into the half up 1-0. Spain had a corner kick and Ibrahim Uzulmez blocked the resulting shot partially with his arm. Since he was inside the box it was a penalty and Xabi Alonso easily converted it to even the score at 1-1. Turkey held strong and the teams traded scoring opportunities down the stretch but just over a minute into injury time Spain lofted a long pass to Guiza who made a swift pass to Alberto Riena. Riena had plenty of space and hit a side-footed shot past Demirel to save a 2-1 victory over Turkey.

My second pick was Atlanta over Buffalo. Buffalo scored first but the Thrashers evened things up less than two minutes later. Atlanta went ahead 2-1 in the second period but two penalties on Bogosian and Exelby for roughing put Atlanta in a 3 on 5 situation and they were very fortunate to come out of it with the score only 2-2. The 3rd period saw nobody find the net so the game went into overtime. With 30 seconds left Ilya Kovalchuk scored and handed Ryan Miller and the Sabres a 3-2 loss. Atlanta won for the fourth time over Buffalo this season, all four being decided on a shootout or in overtime.

In another matchup Jozy Altidore netted a hat trick for Team USA against Trinidad & Tobago as the United States won 3-0. Altidore very nearly had 4 goals in the game but tapped a shot from a yard out over the net. So on to the new picks.

1) Davis Love III vs. Andres Romero – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Ebbsfleet United @ Eastbourne Borough – Eastbourne Borough win
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Stuart Appleby – Appleby cards a lower 1st round score
4) Sergio Garcia vs. Henrik Stevenson – Garcia cards a lower front 9 score
5) Baylor vs. Penn State – Baylor
6) New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – 5 goals or fewer
7) LeBron James vs. Antawn Jamison – Jamison pts., reb., and ast.
8) Columbus @ Real Salt Lake – Columbus win or draw
9) Los Angeles Kings @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
10) Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets – Denver

Analysis
1) Davis Love III and Andres Romero have played in four of the same events this year and Davis Love III had a lower front 9 score in the first round three of the four times. At Doral, however, the most recent tournament they both played in, Romero was five strokes better on the front 9 in the first round. Davis Love III has a lower putting average, higher driving accuracy, and a higher percentage of greens in regulation this year but all by small amounts. Just flip a coin.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Ebbsfleet United is a really cool fan-owned team so I’d like to take them here. Unfortunately, they haven’t won a road game in 2009, losing to Grays Athletic 1-3, Woking 0-1, Salisbury City 0-1, and Kettering Town 1-2. Eastbourne Borough is 3-1-3 (W-D-L) at home in 2009. They drew against Salisbury City (#12 in the tables), lost to Burton Albion (#1), Mansfield Town (#14), and Oxford United (#8), and defeated Crawley Town (#9), Wrexham (#10), and York City (#20). Currently Eastbourne Borough are #13 in the tables and Ebbsfleet United are #19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) Baylor outpaces Penn State in nearly every statistical category except rebounding margin, field goal and three point percentage defense, and assist to turnover ratio. Notre Dame is one of the worst teams in the nation in terms of empty possessions because they miss a lot of shots and don’t create more opportunities for themselves by forcing turnovers or blocking shots. Baylor shoots a higher percentage, forces turnovers, and blocks shots at a high rate. It’s really a matter of opinion if you feel they have been overachieving of late or if they were underachieving during Big 12 play in the regular season. I like Baylor’s offensive efficiency to carry the day in a fairly easy win over Penn State.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

9) Phoenix is a -120 favorite at home and the Kings are +110 underdogs. Phoenix is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and are on a two game winning streak. L.A. is 2-6-2 and are on a two game losing streak. Phoenix is 4-0-1 at home recently, winning their last three while Los Angeles is 1-3-1 on the road having lost their most recent game. Ilya Bryzgalov should be well rested for the Coyotes and ready to play tonight. Phoenix is 2-3-0 at home on the second night of a back to back this season.
UPDATE: The Coyotes look to start Al Montoya in net tonight after he shut out the Colorado Avalanche last night. The Los Angeles Kings have been nearly as poor as the Avalanche on offense lately scoring 1.6 goals per game in their last 10.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

10) The Nuggets have opened up as only 3.5 point favorites at home. The Utah Jazz, my favorite team, have lost every single game against teams with records above .500 this season. Having watched most of those games I can say the Jazz have rarely come close to winning in these games and have only shown the barest inkling of being capable of it. This is one time I’d definitely pick against Utah.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

April 1st, 2009 Picks

A fine 2-0-0 day yesterday and I think I get to punch ESPN in the arm since it’s still March 31st here in the Mountain West. My first pick of the day was the under in the Portugal/South Africa match. Bruno Alves scored on a header off one of the first half dozen corner kicks Portugal earned in the 4th minute. The score was 1-0 going into the half and Lucas Twala scored an own goal for Portugal off another corner kick for Portugal to make it 2-0 in the 58th minute. The South African defense held for the rest of the match and never really threatened to score to leave the match with two goals total.

My second pick of the day was Montreal at home. The Canadiens scored in the first 30 seconds of the game and tallied two more goals in the second period to make it 3-0. Chicago scored first in the third period but the Canadiens answered back to make the final score Montreal 4, Chicago 1. So on to the new picks for the new round.

1) Spain @ Turkey – Turkey win or draw
2) Buffalo Sabres @ Atlanta Thrashers – Atlanta
3) Detroit Pistons @ New Jersey Nets – Detroit
4) Trinidad & Tobago @ United States – 3 goals or more
5) McDonald’s High School All-American Game: West vs. East – East
6) Phoenix Coyotes @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
7) Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns – Phoenix

Alright, looks like there’s still a monthly prize, the chance for a million, top 7 streaks get 10 grand at least, some T-shirt prizes and the chance to win some big money on random games. Good luck everybody!

Analysis
1) The current European odds have a victory for Spain at 45% and a win or draw for Turkey at 55%. Spain has already amassed 15 points in group play, with second place Bosnia-Herzegovina only collecting 9 points. Turkey is just behind the Bosnians with 8 points and really need a win or a draw to stay competitive with a chance to qualify for the World Cup. It is a home game for Turkey. Spain defeated Turkey 1-0 in Barcelona and defeated Belgium 2-1 in Brussels behind an 88' minute goal by David Villa after being down 0-1 early on. Spain will rest some of their players to ensure fresh legs and with their talent should not see a drop in quality. Fernando Torres should start in a 4-5-1 formation.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Buffalo is a -125 favorite and Atlanta is a +105 underdog. Buffalo is 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Buffalo is 1-4-0 on the road recently, losing their last road game, and Atlanta is 4-1-0 at home winning their last two. Ryan Miller is a better goalie than Johan Hedberg but Atlanta is tough at home and their offense is one of the best in the NHL.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) Both Trinidad & Tobago and United States have played 10 matches in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying play. United States’ matches have had an average of 3.2 goals scored and Trinidad’s matches have had an average of 2.6 goals scored. 5 of 10 of United States’ matches have gone over and 6 of 10 of Trinidad’s matches have gone over. Both previous matches between Trinidad & Tobago and United States have had 3 goals scored.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) Phoenix is 6-4 in their last 10 games and are currently on a 3 game slide, all on the road. Houston is 7-3 in their last 10 games and currently on a 1 game winning streak, a home game. Phoenix has won their last 5 home games and Houston lost their last road game, but won the 4 road games before that. Both teams have defeated good competition, but Houston had a tendency to win in incredibly close games while Phoenix won more comfortably. Phoenix is a 1 to 1.5 point favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

March 31st, 2009 Picks

A nice turnaround for myself today as I went 3-0-0. My first pick was Cambridge United to win. This was a matchup of the 2nd place team in the Blue Square Premiere against the 22nd place team. Both offenses were lacking with few shots being taken. Jai Reason finally booted in a shot from the edge of the box in the 82nd minute and Cambridge United held on to defeat Woking 1-0.

My next pick was the Rangers over the Devils. The first period was scoreless, but in the 2nd the Rangers broke loose with three goals. The Devils turned up the pressure and started taking more shots but Henrik Lundqvist made saves on all 38. The Devils grew frustrated in the 3rd and were unable to make a run with at least one player in the box after the 10 minute mark. The Rangers continued their recent dominance over Brodeur and the Devils with a 3-0 victory.

My final pick of the day was Oregon State. They came out with their zone defense and jumped out to a 7-0 lead. They were up by as much as 11 in the first half but UTEP made a small run to make it 35-29 at the half. Oregon State started the second half strong as well and were up by as much as 21 before UTEP made a run again. The Miners got the deficit down to 3 with under 5 minutes to go behind the play of Randy Culpepper, Stefon Jackson, and Arnett Moultrie. Oregon State was 50% from the free throw line, but turned it around at the end to extend their lead. A couple of missed jumpers from Jackson and some more free throws from the Beavers and Oregon State pulled out the victory at home, 75-69. Now it’s on to the picks.

1) Portugal vs. South Africa – 2 goals or fewer
2) Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Baylor vs. San Diego State – San Diego State
4) Chicago Blackhaws @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal

Analysis
1) Portugal has been in a bit of a slump lately. They were beaten 6-2 by Brazil in an international friendly. Aside from that they have scored 1 goal in 4 matches in international competition. South Africa has done much better against African competition, going 3-0-0 in defeating Equatorial Guinea 1-0, Ghana 2-1, and Cameroon 3-2. They lost to Chile 2-0 but then defeated Norway 2-1. So 80% of Portugal’s games going back to October have gone under and they’ve scored 0.6 goals per match and allowed 1.4 goals per match including the 6 goals Brazil tagged on them, while 80% of South Africa’s games have gone over while scoring 1.2 goals and allowing 1.2 goals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) This game is being played in Madison Square Garden. Baylor shoots the ball better, from three point range, from the free throw line, and in general. They make more three pointers than San Diego State, get more blocks and have a higher adjusted points rating. The Aztecs have a greater rebounding margin, their opponents shoot lower percentages from the field than Baylor’s do, they have a higher assist to turnover ratio, have a greater turnover margin, get more steals, commit fewer fouls, and come up with fewer empty possessions. Both teams play 7 to 8 men, with Baylor starting two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore with two seniors in the rotation off the bench. San Diego State starts four seniors and a sophomore, with a junior, a sophomore, and a freshman in the rotation off the bench. Lomars, at 7 feet, could give the Aztecs hassles as their tallest player is 6’8". San Diego State will need to play good man-to-man defense to stop Baylor’s three point shooting and will want to force turnovers. Baylor will want to use their athleticism to get easy baskets around the rim and play inside-out to get open jump shots. If Lomars gets into foul trouble it will enable the Aztec forwards to score around the rim much easier, but they should be looking to attack in any case.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Cristobal Huet has a lower goals against average (GAA) and a higher save percentage than Carey Price of Montreal. Montreal is 4-3-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 4-4-2. Montreal is 2-1-2 at home recently, while Chicago is 1-3-1 on the road. Both teams lost their previous game. Montreal lost their previous home game and Chicago has lost their last 4 road games. Montreal is a -115 favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

March 30th, 2009 Picks

Ouch, my first winless day of the month as I went 0-3-0. I need to pick it up to finish over .500 on 600+ picks this round. My first pick was the over on Louisville versus Michigan State. Things started off slow immediately as the two teams combined to score 10 points in the first five minutes of the game. Michigan State played great defense and Terrence Williams disappeared from the game as he went 1 for 7 from the field. Altogether the two teams combined for 99 shots, whereas on the season they averaged 115 shots per game. Michigan State pulled away in the middle of the second half and downed the Cardinals 64-52 to make it to the Final Four in Detroit!

My second pick was the over on the North Carolina versus Oklahoma game. The teams started out flat again scoring 10 points in the first five minutes. The pace was slow again as 105 shots were taken by two teams who had averaged a combined 123 shots per game during the season. Tyler Hansbrough was ineffective for most of the game, but the rest of the Heels did more than enough against the Sooners. Blake Griffin had a slow and steady 23 points and 18 rebounds, but aside from him, Willie Warren, and Juan Pattillo the rest of the Sooners had 10 points total. Final score, North Carolina 72, Oklahoma 60.

My final pick was the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs had a four point lead going into the half, but the Hornets used a 9-0 run at the end of the third to go up by five in the final quarter. Chris Paul made a couple of amazing plays near the end leading to turnovers by San Antonio and even 6 straight points in 8 seconds near the end of the game could not unseat the Hornets. The clincher involved Chris Paul driving down the court, getting fouled, and flinging up a prayer from 40 feet out. The refs determined he intended to shoot the ball and granted the continuation and Chris Paul nailed three free throws to seal it. New Orleans won the game 90-86 and kept up in the race for home court. So on to the fracking picks.

1) Cambridge United @ Woking – Cambridge United win
2) New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers – New York
3) Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat – Miami
4) David Lee reb. vs. Utah Jazz win margin – Utah win margin
5) UTEP @ Oregon State – Oregon State

Time to have fun tomorrow! Good luck!

Analysis
1) Cambridge United have 7 wins on the road all season. They won two away matches in the first 6 months of the season and have won 5 in the last two months, going 5-1-0 (W-D-L) in their last 6 away matches. Woking have gone 2-2-2 in their last 6 home matches, losing to Kettering Town and Eastbourne Borough, yet drawing against Burton Albion who are tops in the tables. Given that Cambridge United are playing their best on the road right now and they are 52 percent favorites in the European sports books I like their chances here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) New York is 5-4-1 in their last 10 and New Jersey is also 5-4-1. New York is 4-1-0 in their last five home games. New Jersey is 1-3-1 in their last five away games. New Jersey is 3-2-0 against the Rangers head-to-head this season, with Clemmensen being in net for all three victories and Brodeur and Weekes each picking up a loss. Henrik Lundqvist was in net for New York in all five games. The Rangers are on a two game losing streak and the Devils are on a four game slide. The line for this game has opened with both teams at -110. I like the Rangers but much less so if Clemmensen is in net.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

4) David Lee averages 11.9 rebounds on the season and the Utah Jazz are 11 point favorites in Vegas. David Lee has been averaging 11.9 rebounds per game in his last 10 and 10.8 rebounds in his last 5 away games. Utah is 31-6 at home with their average margin of victory being 13.4 points, while New York has lost 25 games on the road by an average of 10.6 points.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) UTEP is a 1 point favorite in Vegas even though they’re on the road. UTEP has a greater rebounding margin on the season, and averaged more blocks and assists than Oregon State did. They have a much higher adjusted points rating, but they do come out with more empty possessions than Oregon State. Oregon State shoots better from the field and makes more three pointers. UTEP is a good free throw shooting team and shoots over three times as many free throws as Oregon State per game. Oregon State plays a zone defense which UTEP has seen in only a few games this season. UTEP won each game against the zone. Oregon State must win this game with the next two games in the CBI championship series being played in El Paso. Stefon Jackson will need to be able to get to the line often to help crack Oregon State’s zone as the Miners are not a great outside shooting team.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

March 29th, 2009 Picks

Mired in the depths of the 1-3-0 day I knew I was lucky just to win one. My first pick was Bart Bryant to have the lower front 9 score, going against my coin which had failed me the two days previous. Bryant started out with two bogeys and was down two strokes going into the third hole. Amazingly Bryant holed out from 140 yards for an eagle while Lehman two putted from three feet for a double bogey putting Bryant up two strokes. Bryant bombed from there hitting into the water on the 6th and double bogeying that double dog leg. The round was tied after that but Lehman birdied the 8th hole and Bryant parred out to lose 38 strokes to 37.

My next pick was the home favorite, Wales. They were dominant in midfield in the first half spending most of their time in the danger zone of the Finns. Their attack was stalled, however, as they failed to take aggressive shots. Most of their attacks ended with pass after pass eventually being stolen by the Finnish defenders. In the 45th minute Hennessey made a huge blunder and left the net to try and reach a ball before Johansson could reach it. He was unable to and Johansson booted a shot which was partially deflected but still had enough juice to reach the net. Finland went into the half up 1-0. In the second half Finland rode that momentum and fairly outplayed the Welshmen. Finland tacked on a second goal in the 90th minute to wrap the game up, winning 2 to nil.

My third pick was the over in the Missouri/UCONN game. The first half went well with UCONN shooting 70% from the field and the teams combining for 82 points. They came out dull in the second half as the defenses began to wear on each other. Both teams shot under 30% for a good portion of the second half and it was just under seven and half minutes remaining before the first three pointer of the half was made. Missouri kept the game close and Matt Lawrence made a three with 45 seconds remaining to encourage the Tigers to keep fouling. Kemba Walker played amazing and made some incredible shots down the stretch for the Huskies. UCONN made their free throws and the two teams ended up scoring 157. Final score: UCONN 82, Missouri 75.

My final pick of the day was Ottawa over Atlanta. I had changed my pick away from Atlanta based on the information that Kari Lehtonen had been injured in their previous game against the New York Rangers on Thursday night. His replacement, Johan Hedberg, had some poor stats in 28 games this season. He gave up three goals and saved only 85% of Ottawa’s shots, but it was more than enough as Atlanta won 6-3. The key for Atlanta was a 2:58 period in the 2nd in which they scored three goals. Down 5-2 Ottawa was unable to mount a comeback and only hurt their chances in the third as they allowed frustration to mount resulting in penalties and power plays for the Thrashers. So on to the slim pickin’s!

1) Tiger Woods’ 4th Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
2) Michigan State vs. Louisville – 140 points or more
3) Chivas USA vs. FC Dallas – Chivas USA win or draw
4) Oklahoma vs. North Carolina – 164 points or more
5) San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets – San Antonio

I’m really not sure about the OK/UNC o/u but the MSU/L’ville over seems pretty solid, though as we all know a poor shooting night can ruin an over. Good luck tomorrow everybody!!

Analysis
1) When I posted 68 or lower last night the weather report for Bay Hill had the sun coming out and the winds calming down to 10-15mph by the time of Tiger Woods’ round. Now the weather report says “WINDY”. Difficult pin placements on the green for the final round are normal. Tiger has hit a 66 and a 76 the last two years at Bay Hill since it went to a par 70 for the Tour.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

2) Louisville have Williams, Clark, Sosa, Smith, McGee. Five players who can shoot the three ball competently. I’m a little concerned about how much production Michigan State can expect from Kalin Lucas with Louisville’s defense seeming to specialize in shutting down guards. Raymay Morgan suffered a broken nose in the game against Kansas and will be wearing a non-fitted mask for protection against Kansas. Goran Suton, however, should be able to score 20 again on Samardo Samuels. Michigan State will need players like Draymond Green and Travis Walton to step up here. Based on their combined adjusted points rating I would give this a 70% chance of going over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

4) Based on the two teams’ adjusted points ratings this one has just under a 55 percent chance of going over. Gonzaga and North Carolina went over 163 easily and I did not see much in Oklahoma’s defense to make me think they would do any better than Gonzaga against North Carolina. Oklahoma’s offense, on the other hand, is terrific with Willie Warren, Austin Johnson, Taylor Griffin, and obviously Blake Griffin.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

5) San Antonio is 22-13 on the road and New Orleans is 26-11 at home. The Hornets are on a two game losing streak and are 3-2 at home recently. The Spurs are on a three game winning streak an dare 3-2 on the road recently. Ginobili is playing again for the Spurs, while Peja Stojakovic is still out for New Orleans. Tyson Chandler (ankle) is also out for the Hornets tonight. James Posey (elbow) will certainly miss the game tonight now as he’s been suspended by the NBA for throwing a ball at a referee on Friday. Hilton Armstrong will start for Chandler even though he also has an ankle injury. The line for this game has moved from “pick ’em” to the Spurs being a 1.5 point favorite.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

March 28th, 2009 Picks

And my slow decline continues from the 5-0-0 day with a 1-3-0 day. I took Mike Weir to start the day off. Weir started out alright until he reached hole #5. He hit out of bounds on his tee shot and then hit far into the rough in the same direction with his drop tee shot. He ended up with a double bogey on the hole and two over on the front nine. Zach Johnson also nearly hit par on the front nine except for a bogey on #8, finishing 1 over par. My next pick was Adam Scott. Things went much the same way with Scott hitting par on the first 12 holes and Cink hitting a double bogey and a birdie to go one over through 12. Adam Scott proceeded to melt down completely hitting seven over par on the last six holes with a triple bogey, a double bogey and two more bogeys. Cink, as might be expected, did better than that and finished the round six strokes ahead of Scott who failed to make the cut.

My third pick was the over in the Arizona/Louisville game. Both teams got off to a fast start and ended up with 77 points by halftime. Their pace only quickened in the second half and they reached 140 points with five minutes remaining. Louisville blew out Arizona by 39 points, winning 103-64.

My last pick of the day was Kansas. It looked good in the first half with Kansas taking a 13 point lead at one point and keeping a 7 point lead at the half. Michigan State came out strong in the second and were down 2 with 17 minutes to go. I’m amazed Kansas actually outrebounded Michigan State, held Kalin Lucas to under 20 points, and still lost. Kansas seemed to be complacent with the lead instead of staying aggressive to extend it. Cole Aldrich wore down in the second half as he tallied 6 rebounds, 5 points and 0 blocks compared to 8 rebounds, 12 points, and 4 blocks in the first half. Kansas could not execute against the Spartan defense in the final three minutes and Michigan State won a terrific game 67-62. So on to the picks, ja?

1) Tom Lehman vs. Bart Bryant – Bryant cards a lower front 9 score
2) Finland vs. Wales – Wales
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Scotland @ Netherlands – 2 goals or fewer
5) Missouri vs. UCONN – 150 points or more
6) Ottawa Senators vs. Atlanta Thrashers – Ottawa
7) Villanova vs. Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh
8) Columbus Blue Jackets @ St. Louis Blues – St. Louis

Remember, they’re in twosomes after the cut so the first golf matchup will be over quickly, and good luck!

Analysis
1) Tom Lehman won the first round front 9 by one stroke and Bart Bryant won the second round front 9 by one stroke. Tom Lehman has missed the cut in four of seven tournaments this year while Bryant has made the cut in all seven tournaments he’s played in. Bryant’s putting average is 1.778 in this tournament and Lehman’s is 1.789. Lehman has hit 52.8% greens in regulation and Bryant has hit 50.0%. Bryant has hit 2 birdies and 5 bogeys on the front 9 in the first two rounds. Lehman has hit 1 birdie and 5 bogeys. Bryant has hit 71.4% of his fairways and Lehman has hit 67.9%. I’ll go with Bryant here even though my coin selected Lehman.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Wales is undefeated at home in World Cup Qualifying competition, while Finland has not won on the road. The caveat is that Wales has defeated the bottom side of their group at home while Finland has lost, once, to the upper side. Craig Bellamy injured his knee against West Ham United on March 1st but played for Manchester City as a substitute as recently as March 22nd. He may still be nursing the injury but he is fit to play against Finland as the Welsh coach named him to the squad on March 16th. Wales is favored to win in this match, with a Finnish win getting a 27.9% chance in the European sports books and a Welsh win getting a 43.3% chance.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) The current odds are 50.7% for over 2.5 goals and 49.3% for under 2.5. Combined The Netherlands and Scotland have scored 7 goals in six matches and allowed 3 goals. That’s an average score of 1.67 goals. The Netherlands are known for being an up-tempo offensive team but have only scored two goals at most in matches against Iceland, Norway, and Macedonia. This could easily be 2-1 in favor of The Netherlands, but Scotland is a good defensive squad having allowed 1 goal in three matches against the same three squads.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) Missouri and Connecticut are both high powered offenses. Missouri played against a strong defensive squad in Memphis and posted 102 points in regulation. Connecticut will prove to be a tougher challenge, but Missouri leads the nation in assists and have a 1.53 assist to turnover ratio so they should be finding easy baskets even against the Huskies. Both teams play at a fast pace and combine for 120 shots, 50 free throw attempts, and 12 three pointers scored. If both teams shoot over 40 percent from the field and hit 65 percent of their free throws it should go over. Based on their adjusted points ratings and the difference between that and actual scores in 47 tournament games this year I would give the over an 80% chance of happening.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

6) Both teams are hot, Ottawa is 8-2-0 in their last 10 and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Atlanta is 4-1-0 in their last 5 home games and Ottawa is 2-3-0 in their last 5 away games. Lehtonen was injured on Thursday night against the Rangers. Dan Hedburg, who has a 3.65 GAA and an 88.1 SV%, will be in net for the Thrashers tonight which gives Ottawa the advantage here.
UPDATE: It’s Johan Hedburg, not Dan.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) Both Columbus and St. Louis are doing well recently with Columbus going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and St. Louis going 6-3-1. Both teams have victories against strong competition in that stretch. St. Louis is 4-1-0 at home recently and Columbus is 3-1-1 on the road. Columbus won their last game at home against Calgary 5-0. St. Louis is on a three game winning streak including a 3-2 win at Calgary and a 4-2 win at home against Vancouver. Head to head this season St. Louis is 2-1-0. St. Louis is currently the favorite at -120.
Confidence: W2 streak or less