click it
I’m suspending the results entries, it’s a lot of time and pretty superfluous when one can just check the recaps and match reports. Carwin proved he’s for real with another early knockout. Overton slipped by with a win when Yang duffed a 7-foot putt for birdie. Doni killed AS Roma when he punched away a shot he could have caught, giving Udinese another shot instead of clearing the ball out. Ruoff hurt WVU by airballing a couple of threes at the end of that game. On the bright side Ottawa took out Buffalo on the second night of a back to back for the Sabres. Vancouver continued their hot streak with a win over San Jose. The UW/WSU over/under was close, but a couple of missed free throws ensured it stayed under. Personally, I went 2-3-0 on the day so I’m surprised only one monthly leader gained a game on me. I’ve got to start making up ground, however, so I’ll be gunnin’ for 5-0-0 tomorrow! On to the picks.
1) Atalanta @ AC Milan – 2 goals or fewer
2) Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers – New York Rangers
3) Chris Barnes/Rhino Page vs. Mika Koivuniemi/Mike Scroggins – Koivuniemi/Scroggins
4) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Orlando
5) Yang, Overton, or Klauk vs. Rest of Field – Yang, Overton, or Klauk win
6) Carl Edwards vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
7) Phoenix Coyotes @ New York Islanders – New York Islanders
8) Shaquille O’Neal vs. Tim Duncan – Duncan pts.
9) Middle Tennessee State vs. North Texas – Middle Tennessee State
10) Henderson and Singler vs. Hansbrough and Green – Hansbrough and Green pts.
11) Carlos Lee vs. Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez records more total bases
12) Montreal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars – Dallas
13) David Wright vs. Bobby Abreu – Abreu records more total bases
14) South Alabama vs. Troy – Troy
I’ll be taking the under in soccer, Koivuniemi/Scroggins, NY Islanders, Montreal, and Troy… oooorrrrr under in soccer, Rangers, Hansbrough/Green, Troy… OK, after some more thought Carey Price is going to get served by Dallas’ offense, so I’ll go with the Stars.
Analysis
1) First off, Atalanta have scored more than one goal in seven of their 26 games this season. Of those they have accomplished this only once on the road, scoring two goals against Palermo. Floccari and Pinto scored one goal each, and Floccari is out for this game, along with top goal scorers Doni and Vieri. AC Milan are ravaged by injuries, with Borriello and Ronaldinho out in the front, Kaka, Gattuso, and Ambrosini out at midfield, and Nesta, Gattuso, Kaladze, and Favalli out on defense. I think they will score between two and three goals, with the most likely score being Atalanta 1 – 1 AC Milan. So I will take the under here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) The Boston Bruins have never split a back to back in their 12 this season. They’ve won both games nine times and lost both games three times. If Thomas or Rask is in net it would boost my personal confidence in this continuing since Fernandez has lost his last four games. Rask has only played once this year but shut out the Rangers in Boston. They lost their first and only match in Madison Square Garden this year, 3-2 in a shootout and have won once in New York in their last seven games there. If Fernandez is the goalie for Boston I would probably take the Rangers.
UPDATE: Fernandez is probable for the Bruins
Confidence: W4 streak or less (for Boston if Thomas/Rask in net, for NYR if Fernandez in net).
3) I like Koivuniemi and Scroggins here because they have scored significantly more in the previous rounds of the tournament than Barnes and Rhino. The format will be a three game, single elimination run-off. The lowest scoring player in each game will be eliminated. It should take approximately 1.5 hours for all three games and the matchup could potentially end after 1 hour with one side or the other being eliminated in the first two games.
Confidence: W2 streak or less (i.e. 75% confident)
8) Shaq has been on a scoring run recently, putting up big numbers. Tim Duncan averages more per game at home than Shaquille O’Neal does on the road. Tim Duncan has won this prop in their past three meetings 32-15, 25-23, and 20-13. I would take this matchup except for that Duncan seems to still be battling a minor knee injury which kept him sidelined for a week at the end of February.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) Singler and Henderson have been scoring more, recently, but Hansbrough and Green have been scoring more at home. Singler and Henderson outscored the Tarheels duo when they played at Duke earlier in the year. Hansbrough and Green have a 1.495 points per shot average compared to 1.325 for Henderson and Singler. I definitely have to go with the home duo who score more for each shot taken. Of course, there’s always the possibility one or the other side will be sidelined with fouls or by injury.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Troy has beaten Southern Alabama twice this season, once at home and once away. Both schools need to win to have a chance at making the NCAA tournament. Troy won the first game in Alabama by 24 with an 18 point lead at half time. They won the second game at home by five. Both wins were mainly due to shooting a higher percentage across the board than Southern Alabama. Over the course of the season both schools shoot nearly the same average. South Alabama looks like they could be a good upset pick, but I think Troy’s defense is the reason South Alabama has shot poorly against Troy.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Saturday, March 7, 2009
March 7th, 2009 Picks
Man, what a day, 2-6-2 on my picks overall and 2-2-2 for my SFTC picks. I started the day on the leaderboard, hoping to move up a game on the leaders, but ended up just off of it. The Sparta/Willem match was a real punch in the gut as well. I’ve rarely been as confident on a soccer match as I was for the Sparta victory. Billups played an average game. Coming off a game the night before he’s averaged 12 points in the last six now. Okur was sub-par and had plenty of opportunities, but missed a free throw and some open threes. Calgary got smashed by Carolina. It’s not all Kiprusoff sitting that did them in either; the other five on the ice were thoroughly outplayed. Cleveland played really soft on defense and it cost them the chance to make a game of things. Calderon had such a bad game that Jay Triano was playing Jason Kapono down the stretch instead. Well, tomorrow is another day and I’ll bounce back! So on to the picks.
1) Udinese @ AS Roma – AS Roma wins
2) Manchester United @ Fulham – Manchester United wins
3) Y.E. Yang vs. Jeff Overton – Yang cards a lower front 9 score
4) Justin Morneau vs. Derek Jeter – Morneau records more total bases
5) Missouri @ Texas A&M – Texas A&M
6) Todd Bodine vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Hornaday Jr.
7) Maryland @ Virginia – Virginia
8) Minnesota Wild @ Los Angeles Kings – Minnesota
9) LSU @ Auburn – LSU
10) Carlos Lee vs. Alex Rios – Rios records more total bases
11) Washington State @ Washington – 129 points or more
12) Buffalo Sabers @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
13) Louisville @ West Virginia – West Virginia
14) San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
15) Nevada @ Boise State – Boise State
16) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin – Gonzaga wins
Analysis
1) AS Roma is at home with a record of 9-2-1 (W-D-L), while Udinese is 2-3-8 away from home. AS Roma is playing for an automatic berth in the Champions League next year and Udinese is just trying to stay abroad of relegation. Udinese defeated visiting AS Roma 3-1 in a match on October 25th. At that point in the season Udinese were tied with Inter for 1st place in Serie A and AS Roma was in the relegation zone. So, was Udinese playing above themselves at the time? Or are AS Roma playing above themselves since then? Two of Udinese’s defenders from that match are missing for today’s. Totti is out, but Menez, Baptista, and Vucinic are all named to the team for today. (http://www.asroma.it/NewsDoc.aspx?Categoria=ITArchivioNews&Documento=10108). AS Roma may rest some starters, especially those who have been ill or are nursing an injury, but they will have many others responsible for their 9 wins at home playing.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
2) Manchester United is the talk of Europe and their potential for winning five European and English tournaments this year. They won the Carling Cup at Old Trafford against Tottenham Hotspur, currently 13th in the Premier League, but it took penalty kicks for it to be decided. They lost 1-0 when visiting a Derby County team which currently sits in 16th place in the 2nd tier English League Championship and had only won 7 of 17 matches at home! In both of these matches O’Shea, Tevez, Rooney, Ronaldo, and others were playing, some as substitutes and some as starters. The common thread is that Edwin van der Sar was not on goal. Van der Sar will be resting for this FA Cup 1st leg against Fulham. Fulham is in the 10th spot in the Premier League and have lost only twice at home. Manchester United have drawn or lost to worse teams than Fulham in their tournament runs, and I think they will draw at best here, knowing they can return to Old Trafford to advance to the next round.
UPDATE: ManU is playing Edwin van der Sar, and the majority of their starters for this one. They must have caught wind that people were betting against them.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Both Yang and Overton have been playing very well in the first two rounds of The Honda Classic. Yang’s statistics such as % of greens in regulation, and putting average are above his career long averages (plus 7.9% GIR and plus 0.071 putts per GIR). The same statistics for Overton are also inflated from his career averages and to a greater degree (plus 10.7% GIR and plus 0.184 putts per GIR). Yang is expected to do better from these stats and Overton is more likely to see a larger drop in play as they go into the third and fourth rounds.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Missouri is coming off a great home win over the Oklahoma Sooners, a game in which they dominated from beginning to end. Texas A&M is seeking their sixth consecutive conference win on their home court. Young teams can have a tendency to have a drop in play after an impressive win, especially when their next game is away from home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Auburn will give LSU a run for their money just as they did in their previous game at LSU. The Tigers will be looking to recover from a tough loss against Vanderbilt in their most recent game where they cut an 11 point half time deficit to 1 with 5 minutes to go but were unable to score thereafter. LSU are a good enough team to shake off that loss and give their best against Auburn.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) Every one of Washington’s conference home games have gone over 129 points. Five of Washington State’s eight conference away games have gone under. Two of the three that went over were against UCLA and California, two of the top three schools in the PAC-10. The other top three team is Washington who averages more points per game than either UCLA or California. Washington State can play a 65-55 type of game against Arizona State, who average 69.2 points per game, but Washington is exactly the type of team they haven’t been able to hold under 70.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Buffalo has lost 3 of 4 games against Ottawa this season, twice at home and once on the road. Their one victory came at home. Ottawa’s home record is 14-12-6 and Buffalo’s away record is 14-13-5. Mikael Tellqvist may make his first start for the Sabers this season. Brian Elliott is the most likely goalie for Ottawa and is 2-0 against Buffalo this season with a 1.50 GAA and 0.952 save percentage.
UPDATE: Looks like Lalime will start over Tellqvist, but not for certain. It would improve Buffalo’s chances for victory, but not by enough to make me pick them to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Remember, this is the West Virginia team which laid Villanova out cold to end their two game streak of scoring over 100 points. They dug themselves into a deep hole in their previous matchup and were down 20 at the half, then fought back to end up losing by six. The Mountaineers shot poorly in that game, only 35.6% on 59 field goals, 21.4% on 14 three pointers. That’s 6% and 11% below their season averages. West Virginia will be prepared for Louisville’s athleticism and will take care of the ball more than they did in the first half of that game. West Virginia is 12-2 at home, losing to Pittsburgh and Connecticut. Louisville is 7-1 on the road losing to Notre Dame. If West Virginia can avoid giving up many easy baskets inside and can take care of the ball for 40 minutes I think they will win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) Shane Carwin has an impressive undefeated record with each one happening in the first round. Carwin’s opponents have been beginners and fighters with losing records for the most part. Gabriel Gonzaga has three losses, but two of those are to Werdum and one a third round TKO at the hands of Randy Couture. Gonzaga knocked out Mirko Cro Cop with a kick in a previous fight. Gonzaga has more experience and toughness as he has gone toe to toe with some of the top fighters out there. Either Carwin will wilt in the face of a challenge or he will prove he really does deserve to be one of the featured fighters in UFC.
Confidence: W2 or less
1) Udinese @ AS Roma – AS Roma wins
2) Manchester United @ Fulham – Manchester United wins
3) Y.E. Yang vs. Jeff Overton – Yang cards a lower front 9 score
4) Justin Morneau vs. Derek Jeter – Morneau records more total bases
5) Missouri @ Texas A&M – Texas A&M
6) Todd Bodine vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Hornaday Jr.
7) Maryland @ Virginia – Virginia
8) Minnesota Wild @ Los Angeles Kings – Minnesota
9) LSU @ Auburn – LSU
10) Carlos Lee vs. Alex Rios – Rios records more total bases
11) Washington State @ Washington – 129 points or more
12) Buffalo Sabers @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
13) Louisville @ West Virginia – West Virginia
14) San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver
15) Nevada @ Boise State – Boise State
16) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin – Gonzaga wins
Analysis
1) AS Roma is at home with a record of 9-2-1 (W-D-L), while Udinese is 2-3-8 away from home. AS Roma is playing for an automatic berth in the Champions League next year and Udinese is just trying to stay abroad of relegation. Udinese defeated visiting AS Roma 3-1 in a match on October 25th. At that point in the season Udinese were tied with Inter for 1st place in Serie A and AS Roma was in the relegation zone. So, was Udinese playing above themselves at the time? Or are AS Roma playing above themselves since then? Two of Udinese’s defenders from that match are missing for today’s. Totti is out, but Menez, Baptista, and Vucinic are all named to the team for today. (http://www.asroma.it/NewsDoc.aspx?Categoria=ITArchivioNews&Documento=10108). AS Roma may rest some starters, especially those who have been ill or are nursing an injury, but they will have many others responsible for their 9 wins at home playing.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
2) Manchester United is the talk of Europe and their potential for winning five European and English tournaments this year. They won the Carling Cup at Old Trafford against Tottenham Hotspur, currently 13th in the Premier League, but it took penalty kicks for it to be decided. They lost 1-0 when visiting a Derby County team which currently sits in 16th place in the 2nd tier English League Championship and had only won 7 of 17 matches at home! In both of these matches O’Shea, Tevez, Rooney, Ronaldo, and others were playing, some as substitutes and some as starters. The common thread is that Edwin van der Sar was not on goal. Van der Sar will be resting for this FA Cup 1st leg against Fulham. Fulham is in the 10th spot in the Premier League and have lost only twice at home. Manchester United have drawn or lost to worse teams than Fulham in their tournament runs, and I think they will draw at best here, knowing they can return to Old Trafford to advance to the next round.
UPDATE: ManU is playing Edwin van der Sar, and the majority of their starters for this one. They must have caught wind that people were betting against them.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) Both Yang and Overton have been playing very well in the first two rounds of The Honda Classic. Yang’s statistics such as % of greens in regulation, and putting average are above his career long averages (plus 7.9% GIR and plus 0.071 putts per GIR). The same statistics for Overton are also inflated from his career averages and to a greater degree (plus 10.7% GIR and plus 0.184 putts per GIR). Yang is expected to do better from these stats and Overton is more likely to see a larger drop in play as they go into the third and fourth rounds.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) Missouri is coming off a great home win over the Oklahoma Sooners, a game in which they dominated from beginning to end. Texas A&M is seeking their sixth consecutive conference win on their home court. Young teams can have a tendency to have a drop in play after an impressive win, especially when their next game is away from home.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Auburn will give LSU a run for their money just as they did in their previous game at LSU. The Tigers will be looking to recover from a tough loss against Vanderbilt in their most recent game where they cut an 11 point half time deficit to 1 with 5 minutes to go but were unable to score thereafter. LSU are a good enough team to shake off that loss and give their best against Auburn.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
11) Every one of Washington’s conference home games have gone over 129 points. Five of Washington State’s eight conference away games have gone under. Two of the three that went over were against UCLA and California, two of the top three schools in the PAC-10. The other top three team is Washington who averages more points per game than either UCLA or California. Washington State can play a 65-55 type of game against Arizona State, who average 69.2 points per game, but Washington is exactly the type of team they haven’t been able to hold under 70.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Buffalo has lost 3 of 4 games against Ottawa this season, twice at home and once on the road. Their one victory came at home. Ottawa’s home record is 14-12-6 and Buffalo’s away record is 14-13-5. Mikael Tellqvist may make his first start for the Sabers this season. Brian Elliott is the most likely goalie for Ottawa and is 2-0 against Buffalo this season with a 1.50 GAA and 0.952 save percentage.
UPDATE: Looks like Lalime will start over Tellqvist, but not for certain. It would improve Buffalo’s chances for victory, but not by enough to make me pick them to win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Remember, this is the West Virginia team which laid Villanova out cold to end their two game streak of scoring over 100 points. They dug themselves into a deep hole in their previous matchup and were down 20 at the half, then fought back to end up losing by six. The Mountaineers shot poorly in that game, only 35.6% on 59 field goals, 21.4% on 14 three pointers. That’s 6% and 11% below their season averages. West Virginia will be prepared for Louisville’s athleticism and will take care of the ball more than they did in the first half of that game. West Virginia is 12-2 at home, losing to Pittsburgh and Connecticut. Louisville is 7-1 on the road losing to Notre Dame. If West Virginia can avoid giving up many easy baskets inside and can take care of the ball for 40 minutes I think they will win.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) Shane Carwin has an impressive undefeated record with each one happening in the first round. Carwin’s opponents have been beginners and fighters with losing records for the most part. Gabriel Gonzaga has three losses, but two of those are to Werdum and one a third round TKO at the hands of Randy Couture. Gonzaga knocked out Mirko Cro Cop with a kick in a previous fight. Gonzaga has more experience and toughness as he has gone toe to toe with some of the top fighters out there. Either Carwin will wilt in the face of a challenge or he will prove he really does deserve to be one of the featured fighters in UFC.
Confidence: W2 or less
Friday, March 6, 2009
March 6th, 2009 Picks
Ahhh, my first sub-.500 day of the month as far as my picks go, and the first day I’ve avoided picking any losers! I only got 2 picks in today as the NBA game got off to a late start. I learned my lesson about picking against the player with the higher point per shot total, Derrick Brown and Chris Wright each took 9 shots, Brown had more points from those shots, just as one might expect. Over/under was off by quite a bit, I think if Arizona misses their threes down the stretch, they don’t foul, and under may have won out. I also appeared on the monthly leaderboard for a moment after the Paul victory but fell off again after Penn State won. Just one strong day and I should be ensconced! So on to the picks.
1) Miguel Jiminez vs. Justin Rose – Jiminez cards a lower front 9 score
2) Charlie Wi vs. J.J. Henry – Wi cards a lower front 9 score
3) Willem II Tilburg @ Sparta Rotterdam – Sparta Rotterdam wins
4) Southern Illinois @ Bradley – Southern Illinois
5) William & Mary @ James Madison – James Madison
6) Calgary Flames @ Carolina Hurricanes – Calgary
7) Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
8) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics – Cleveland
9) Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
10) Chauncy Billups vs. Mehmet Okur – Okur scores more points
*yawn* Well, as far as Jiminez and Wi go they shot well on the front 9 yesterday and did well overall. The golf matches should end after 2.5 hours, assuming they unlock after the front 9 are finished. So I’ll go Jiminez, Wi, Sparta, and then probably Calgary or Toronto, followed by Anaheim or Okur. Good luck!
Analysis
3) In the first game these two teams played this season Willem won 3 – 2 over Sparta. Sparta Rotterdam had many more injuries than Willem, while in this match it is Willem who has been bit by the injury bug. According to the match preview Willem will be missing Boutahar, with Demouge possible. According to the Willem II Tilburg homepage Akgun, Schenkel, Deul, Mathijssen, and Quasten are also injured, and van Eijden and Demouge are in doubt. That makes 3 of their top 5 goal scorers out for this match, and if Demouge also misses the game it would be 4 out of 5. Demouge is huge for them as he has scored 46.4% of their goals this season. Willem II Tilburg has lost their last 6 matches. Wapenaar will be out for Sparta Rotterdam and he is their starting goalie. Their backup, Cassio, has done well for them with two clean sheets in six games, and 8 goals allowed overall. I think Sparta Rotterdam will win this 2 – 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) It’s tough to make a pick on two teams one knows as little about as these two. One thing I do know is that James Madison has already beaten William & Mary twice this season, once at home and once on the road, and both by 9 points. This one will be on a neutral court, and while Harrisburg is over twice as close to Richmond as Williamsburg they will have equal numbers of tickets reserved for either school. Both of the games were close and Williams & Mary had the early lead both times, so this won’t be an automatic victory for James Madison.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Calgary is really pushing their luck going for their seventh road victory in a row. It’s a back-to-back situation for them here as well, and Carolina is a good team. Calgary’s road record is 17-11-2 and Carolina’s home record is 17-13-1. With the addition of Jokinen and Leopold and with Kiprusoff in the net it’s hard to pick against them.
UPDATE: Kiprusoff is being replaced by McIlhenny in net tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Miami has lost their last six meetings to Toronto. This will be their first meeting since the trade that sent Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon to Miami in exchange for Shawn Marion. I expect O’Neal and Moon to have above average games against their former team, but I also expect the same from Marion. Dwyane Wade tends to save his best games for the best competition, which Toronto is not. If Wade scores over 40 points there is a good chance it’s because O’Neal, Moon, Haslem and other members of the Heat are not having good games. If Bosh and Calderon have good games along with Marion it would negate a terrific game by Wade, or a good game by all the Heat.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
8) The Celtics defeated Cleveland at home in the first game of the season. It was Mo Williams’ first regular season game with the team he’d just been traded to in the offseason. It was a close game, with Boston holding a four point lead going into the fourth quarter. At Cleveland, later in the season, the Cavaliers were missing Zydrunas Ilgauskas. They won another close game, but had a 12 point lead going into the fourth quarter. This game is in Boston, but now Mo Williams has truly integrated himself into the Cavaliers as their point man, Ilgauskas is back and playing well, and Kevin Garnett is missing for the Celtics.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Superficially Bilups should win this easily. He’s averaged 25.2 points in his last five games, and 25.8 points in his last 5 road games. Okur has only averaged 19.2 in his last 5, and 18.4 in his last 5 at home. The kicker for me is that Billups is averaging 14.9 points on the second night of a back-to-back this season and 12.0 in the last 5 of those. The only real problem here is that the Jazz have so many other offensive weapons that can step up and score 15 or more, C.J. Miles, Harpring, Korver, Brewer, Millsap, Boozer, Williams, even Kirilenko. So in the end I’ll take Okur. Utah Jazz forver!
Confidence: W8 streak or less
1) Miguel Jiminez vs. Justin Rose – Jiminez cards a lower front 9 score
2) Charlie Wi vs. J.J. Henry – Wi cards a lower front 9 score
3) Willem II Tilburg @ Sparta Rotterdam – Sparta Rotterdam wins
4) Southern Illinois @ Bradley – Southern Illinois
5) William & Mary @ James Madison – James Madison
6) Calgary Flames @ Carolina Hurricanes – Calgary
7) Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
8) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics – Cleveland
9) Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
10) Chauncy Billups vs. Mehmet Okur – Okur scores more points
*yawn* Well, as far as Jiminez and Wi go they shot well on the front 9 yesterday and did well overall. The golf matches should end after 2.5 hours, assuming they unlock after the front 9 are finished. So I’ll go Jiminez, Wi, Sparta, and then probably Calgary or Toronto, followed by Anaheim or Okur. Good luck!
Analysis
3) In the first game these two teams played this season Willem won 3 – 2 over Sparta. Sparta Rotterdam had many more injuries than Willem, while in this match it is Willem who has been bit by the injury bug. According to the match preview Willem will be missing Boutahar, with Demouge possible. According to the Willem II Tilburg homepage Akgun, Schenkel, Deul, Mathijssen, and Quasten are also injured, and van Eijden and Demouge are in doubt. That makes 3 of their top 5 goal scorers out for this match, and if Demouge also misses the game it would be 4 out of 5. Demouge is huge for them as he has scored 46.4% of their goals this season. Willem II Tilburg has lost their last 6 matches. Wapenaar will be out for Sparta Rotterdam and he is their starting goalie. Their backup, Cassio, has done well for them with two clean sheets in six games, and 8 goals allowed overall. I think Sparta Rotterdam will win this 2 – 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) It’s tough to make a pick on two teams one knows as little about as these two. One thing I do know is that James Madison has already beaten William & Mary twice this season, once at home and once on the road, and both by 9 points. This one will be on a neutral court, and while Harrisburg is over twice as close to Richmond as Williamsburg they will have equal numbers of tickets reserved for either school. Both of the games were close and Williams & Mary had the early lead both times, so this won’t be an automatic victory for James Madison.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Calgary is really pushing their luck going for their seventh road victory in a row. It’s a back-to-back situation for them here as well, and Carolina is a good team. Calgary’s road record is 17-11-2 and Carolina’s home record is 17-13-1. With the addition of Jokinen and Leopold and with Kiprusoff in the net it’s hard to pick against them.
UPDATE: Kiprusoff is being replaced by McIlhenny in net tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Miami has lost their last six meetings to Toronto. This will be their first meeting since the trade that sent Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon to Miami in exchange for Shawn Marion. I expect O’Neal and Moon to have above average games against their former team, but I also expect the same from Marion. Dwyane Wade tends to save his best games for the best competition, which Toronto is not. If Wade scores over 40 points there is a good chance it’s because O’Neal, Moon, Haslem and other members of the Heat are not having good games. If Bosh and Calderon have good games along with Marion it would negate a terrific game by Wade, or a good game by all the Heat.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
8) The Celtics defeated Cleveland at home in the first game of the season. It was Mo Williams’ first regular season game with the team he’d just been traded to in the offseason. It was a close game, with Boston holding a four point lead going into the fourth quarter. At Cleveland, later in the season, the Cavaliers were missing Zydrunas Ilgauskas. They won another close game, but had a 12 point lead going into the fourth quarter. This game is in Boston, but now Mo Williams has truly integrated himself into the Cavaliers as their point man, Ilgauskas is back and playing well, and Kevin Garnett is missing for the Celtics.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Superficially Bilups should win this easily. He’s averaged 25.2 points in his last five games, and 25.8 points in his last 5 road games. Okur has only averaged 19.2 in his last 5, and 18.4 in his last 5 at home. The kicker for me is that Billups is averaging 14.9 points on the second night of a back-to-back this season and 12.0 in the last 5 of those. The only real problem here is that the Jazz have so many other offensive weapons that can step up and score 15 or more, C.J. Miles, Harpring, Korver, Brewer, Millsap, Boozer, Williams, even Kirilenko. So in the end I’ll take Okur. Utah Jazz forver!
Confidence: W8 streak or less
Thursday, March 5, 2009
March 5th, 2009 Picks
Well another 50%+ day, but another 3-0 day ruined, this time by a Marcus Camby migraine. I know Rudy Gay had a great chance of winning either way, but it would have been nice to see it play out. I also knew Boston College wouldn’t out rebound N.C. State again. I should’ve changed my pick here in my blog when I saw N.C. State had higher shooting percentages on the season. It’s too bad McNeal couldn’t make his last open three for the win and had his shot blocked for the push. Other than that things went well. I took Sampdoria, which was a great game to watch. Their goalie, Castellazzi, was amazing. Then it was the Sabres, and finally Marcus Camby. I was on the monthly wins leaderboard briefly yesterday and hopefully can get back up there today. So on to the picks.
1) Ernie Els vs. Camilo Villegas – Villegas cards a lower first round score
2) Robert Allenby vs. Boo Weekley – Allenby cards a lower first round score
3) York City @ Weymouth – 2 goals or fewer
4) Calgary Flames @ Philadelphia Flyers – Calgary
5) Tennessee @ South Carolina – South Carolina
6) Providence @ Villanova – Providence score more three pointers
7) Dirk Nowitzki pts. and reb. vs. Chris Paul pts. and ast. – Paul pts. and ast.
8) Illinois @ Penn State – Illinois
9) Chris Wright vs. Derrick Brown – Wright pts.
10) California @ Arizona – 147 points or less
Good luck tomorrow everybody, I’ll try and add some analysis before too late. I’ll be taking Villegas in the morning then under in soccer, then probably Paul over Nowitzki and then under in PAC-10 action. Well scratch the soccer pick, and I think I may take Calgary instead of Paul, but I want to see if new acquisition Jokinen will be playing for them.
Analysis
3) Well, I spent a lot of time looking at these teams’ past results to determine the most likely number of goals to be scored was 2. Then I dug deeper and discovered the reason Weymouth lost 9 to 0 to Rushden & Diamond was because they were playing their Under-18 squad. They had to play the teenagers because they hadn’t paid their senior players for a couple of months and the vast majority of them quit the team. Weymouth has found a potential financial backer now and have some new senior players, but these guys have only played one game together, the 2 to 0 loss to York City on February 28th. So be careful picking this one, the Weymouth team out there will be entirely different from the one who played before 2/21/09, but at least they are (mostly) senior players.
UPDATE: This match has been postponed due to the field at Wessex being waterlogged from melting snow.
Confidence: Does it matter?
5) South Carolina and Tennessee are tied for second place in the SEC. South Carolina is 7-0 at home in conference play and Tennessee is 4-3 on the road. In their previous matchup Tennessee won by 3 even though they had 22 turnovers to 11 for South Carolina. Tennessee had one of their best shooting games of the season that night. South Carolina has forced more turnovers than they’ve given up in all 7 home games they’ve won. Tennessee will probably out rebound them and has a better inside scoring presence. They will have to have another fantastic shooting night to defeat the Gamecocks tonight as South Carolina will have the advantage in turnovers again. South Carolina should also expect to shoot better on threes having shot 40 or better their past three home games. Tennessee will have to shoot over 70% on free throws which they’ve done in only 2 of their 7 road games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Providence appears to have the same advantages over Villanova that Texas Tech had over Kansas. They shoot more threes (21.4 to 17.8), and make a bit more too (6.897 to 6.433). Tech shoots a lower percentage than Kansas, and Providence shoots a lower percentage than ‘Nova (32.2% to 36.2%). Providence should be playing from behind, which I don’t like since that usually means taking more bad shots, rather than getting three pointers from the offense. I think this will be a lot closer than yesterday’s prop, but with the stats favoring Providence I’ve got to go with them.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) It’s basically a tossup when one averages together recent performance overall, at home/away, and season totals, with Dirk averaging 31.5 points and rebounds and Paul averaging 31.0 points and assists. Nowitzki is playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. The last time these teams met Dallas was on the second night of a back-to-back in Dallas and Paul won 44 to 33.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) Derrick Brown averages 1.5 points per shot attempted compared to 1.35 points per shot attempted for Chris Wright. Brown is also at home. Chris Wright is averaging 3.4 more points in their last 5 games, 0.2 more points in his last 5 away games compared to Brown’s last 5 home games, and 0.5 fewer points overall. It’s really not leaning one way or the other for either player. Usually I’ll go with the one with the higher point per shot statistic, but here I’ll go with Wright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) These two teams combined for 124 points in their last meeting, which is quite a bit under 148. Even with points added to their projected total based on assists and turnovers the total score I estimate is under. At most they’ll score 146. Unless of course it goes to triple overtime, then the over looks pretty good. I think I’ll take that chance.
Confidence: W12 streak or less
1) Ernie Els vs. Camilo Villegas – Villegas cards a lower first round score
2) Robert Allenby vs. Boo Weekley – Allenby cards a lower first round score
3) York City @ Weymouth – 2 goals or fewer
4) Calgary Flames @ Philadelphia Flyers – Calgary
5) Tennessee @ South Carolina – South Carolina
6) Providence @ Villanova – Providence score more three pointers
7) Dirk Nowitzki pts. and reb. vs. Chris Paul pts. and ast. – Paul pts. and ast.
8) Illinois @ Penn State – Illinois
9) Chris Wright vs. Derrick Brown – Wright pts.
10) California @ Arizona – 147 points or less
Good luck tomorrow everybody, I’ll try and add some analysis before too late. I’ll be taking Villegas in the morning then under in soccer, then probably Paul over Nowitzki and then under in PAC-10 action. Well scratch the soccer pick, and I think I may take Calgary instead of Paul, but I want to see if new acquisition Jokinen will be playing for them.
Analysis
3) Well, I spent a lot of time looking at these teams’ past results to determine the most likely number of goals to be scored was 2. Then I dug deeper and discovered the reason Weymouth lost 9 to 0 to Rushden & Diamond was because they were playing their Under-18 squad. They had to play the teenagers because they hadn’t paid their senior players for a couple of months and the vast majority of them quit the team. Weymouth has found a potential financial backer now and have some new senior players, but these guys have only played one game together, the 2 to 0 loss to York City on February 28th. So be careful picking this one, the Weymouth team out there will be entirely different from the one who played before 2/21/09, but at least they are (mostly) senior players.
UPDATE: This match has been postponed due to the field at Wessex being waterlogged from melting snow.
Confidence: Does it matter?
5) South Carolina and Tennessee are tied for second place in the SEC. South Carolina is 7-0 at home in conference play and Tennessee is 4-3 on the road. In their previous matchup Tennessee won by 3 even though they had 22 turnovers to 11 for South Carolina. Tennessee had one of their best shooting games of the season that night. South Carolina has forced more turnovers than they’ve given up in all 7 home games they’ve won. Tennessee will probably out rebound them and has a better inside scoring presence. They will have to have another fantastic shooting night to defeat the Gamecocks tonight as South Carolina will have the advantage in turnovers again. South Carolina should also expect to shoot better on threes having shot 40 or better their past three home games. Tennessee will have to shoot over 70% on free throws which they’ve done in only 2 of their 7 road games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Providence appears to have the same advantages over Villanova that Texas Tech had over Kansas. They shoot more threes (21.4 to 17.8), and make a bit more too (6.897 to 6.433). Tech shoots a lower percentage than Kansas, and Providence shoots a lower percentage than ‘Nova (32.2% to 36.2%). Providence should be playing from behind, which I don’t like since that usually means taking more bad shots, rather than getting three pointers from the offense. I think this will be a lot closer than yesterday’s prop, but with the stats favoring Providence I’ve got to go with them.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) It’s basically a tossup when one averages together recent performance overall, at home/away, and season totals, with Dirk averaging 31.5 points and rebounds and Paul averaging 31.0 points and assists. Nowitzki is playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. The last time these teams met Dallas was on the second night of a back-to-back in Dallas and Paul won 44 to 33.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) Derrick Brown averages 1.5 points per shot attempted compared to 1.35 points per shot attempted for Chris Wright. Brown is also at home. Chris Wright is averaging 3.4 more points in their last 5 games, 0.2 more points in his last 5 away games compared to Brown’s last 5 home games, and 0.5 fewer points overall. It’s really not leaning one way or the other for either player. Usually I’ll go with the one with the higher point per shot statistic, but here I’ll go with Wright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) These two teams combined for 124 points in their last meeting, which is quite a bit under 148. Even with points added to their projected total based on assists and turnovers the total score I estimate is under. At most they’ll score 146. Unless of course it goes to triple overtime, then the over looks pretty good. I think I’ll take that chance.
Confidence: W12 streak or less
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
March 4th, 2009 Picks
Continued my run of over 50% picks correct in March, it must be getting close to St. Patrick’s Day. Went 2-1 overall and have 8 wins on the month so far, but I figure one needs at least 3 wins per day on average to be in the running for the monthly prize. That Michigan State game was brutal to me, they started out scoring at ease. I go to dinner and come back in the middle of Michigan State shooting bricks and just in time to watch both teams combine for one point over at least three minutes. The lesson today: I am not very good at picking college basketball, at least not today. So on to the picks.
1) Inter Milan @ Sampdoria – Sampdoria wins
2) Manchester United @ Newcastle – 3 goals or more
3) Boston College @ North Carolina State – Boston College
4) North Carolina @ Virginia Tech – 156 points or more
5) Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
6) Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat – Miami
7) McNeal and Matthews vs. Young and Blair – McNeal and Matthews pts.
8) San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks – San Antonio
9) Oklahoma @ Missouri – Missouri
10) Florida @ Mississippi State – Mississippi State
11) Kansas @ Texas Tech – Kansas has more three pointers
12) Rudy Gay pts. + ast. vs. Marcus Camby pts. + reb. – Camby pts. + reb.
The picks are finalized and I’m looking forward to the day’s matchups. Let me know if you have a question about one of the matchups without analysis. Good luck!
Analysis
1) This is frighteningly similar to the Juventus @ Lazio match yesterday. Both teams are missing a defender, a goalie, and a striker from their squads that played to a 1 – 1 draw at the beginning of the season. Fortunately for Sampdoria their goalie in that match, Mirante, has been replaced by Castellazzi for most of the season and that is who they’ll have in net for today’s match. Inter Milan will be leaving Julio César back home and their backup goalie, Toldo, has only played in two matches this season. Inter Milan will also be missing striker Ibrahimovic, midfielder Figo, and defenders Samuel and Chivu. Aside from defender Lucchini Sampdoria will return the side which beat AC Milan 2 – 1 on Sunday. It should be a wet and rainy day in Genoa so expect the unexpected with a few more goals than usual.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Newcastle United are a wholly different squad than the one which pulled a 1 – 1 draw against Manchester United in the first game of the season. Only 4 of the players starting in that game are available to play in this game. Looking at recent goals scored/allowed, season-long goals scored/allowed, and performance against the top-flight/bottom-rung teams I got that the teams would combine for – get this – 2.503 goals. Well, it’s closer to 3 than it is to 2 so I’ll go with the over here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) On paper these two teams match up fairly well. North Carolina State is a 2 to 3 point favorite by virtue of their being at home. In their game at Boston College the Eagles out rebounded the Wolf Pack 40 to 24, and had 19 offensive rebounds. Other than that the teams were nearly equal in every statistical category. Boston College won with a few more threes and a couple more free throws. Boston College will have to dominate the boards again to win this one, unless the Wolf Pack have a poor shooting night. If Boston College shoots poorly, however, they’re doomed.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) McNeal and Matthews are averaging 0.6 less than Blair and Young in their past 5 games. Recently at home, however, Blair and Young have been below their season average. McNeal and Matthews’ points per shot average is 1.50 while Blair and Young’s points per shot average is 1.37. Blair and Young generally play fewer minutes than McNeal and Matthews and are more prone to getting into foul trouble.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Defensively, Missouri will have no answer for Blake Griffin, with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons doing their best to stop the powerhouse. Missouri has also yet to lose at home this season, and it will be the final home game for Carroll and Lyons who are seniors. Missouri is a four point home favorite in this game, which is kind of surprising to me. It will be a hard fought game and Missouri should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Some people might think that since Texas is playing from behind they’ll be shooting a lot of threes and have more chances at making them. It’s true they’ll be forcing a lot of threes, and missing a lot, trying to come back. Kansas will have gotten their lead partly by getting good looks at threes, however. I think Texas Tech shoots below their average and Kansas hits theirs. Texas Tech shoots 37.1% on the season, Kansas shoots 39.0%. Texas Tech makes 7.07 threes and shoots 19.07 per game, Kansas makes 6.52 and shoots 16.72 on average. Kansas and Texas Tech each have three players averaging over 1.0 three point make per game, but Kansas also has another player hitting nearly 1.0.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
12) Camby averages more points and rebounds than Gay averages points and assists. In their past five games Camby is averaging more than Gay, and Camby averages more in his recent home games than Gay in his recent away games. Rudy Gay really doesn’t get many assists, that 6 against the Lakers last night are the most he’s had all season. He turns the ball over more than he gets assists. I also like that Camby can get rebounds on the offensive and defensive ends of the court, while Gay can only get assists on offense. Whether or not Randolph plays Camby will get his. Gay has won this prop in their previous two matchups which is why the confidence isn’t higher on this.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
1) Inter Milan @ Sampdoria – Sampdoria wins
2) Manchester United @ Newcastle – 3 goals or more
3) Boston College @ North Carolina State – Boston College
4) North Carolina @ Virginia Tech – 156 points or more
5) Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
6) Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat – Miami
7) McNeal and Matthews vs. Young and Blair – McNeal and Matthews pts.
8) San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks – San Antonio
9) Oklahoma @ Missouri – Missouri
10) Florida @ Mississippi State – Mississippi State
11) Kansas @ Texas Tech – Kansas has more three pointers
12) Rudy Gay pts. + ast. vs. Marcus Camby pts. + reb. – Camby pts. + reb.
The picks are finalized and I’m looking forward to the day’s matchups. Let me know if you have a question about one of the matchups without analysis. Good luck!
Analysis
1) This is frighteningly similar to the Juventus @ Lazio match yesterday. Both teams are missing a defender, a goalie, and a striker from their squads that played to a 1 – 1 draw at the beginning of the season. Fortunately for Sampdoria their goalie in that match, Mirante, has been replaced by Castellazzi for most of the season and that is who they’ll have in net for today’s match. Inter Milan will be leaving Julio César back home and their backup goalie, Toldo, has only played in two matches this season. Inter Milan will also be missing striker Ibrahimovic, midfielder Figo, and defenders Samuel and Chivu. Aside from defender Lucchini Sampdoria will return the side which beat AC Milan 2 – 1 on Sunday. It should be a wet and rainy day in Genoa so expect the unexpected with a few more goals than usual.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Newcastle United are a wholly different squad than the one which pulled a 1 – 1 draw against Manchester United in the first game of the season. Only 4 of the players starting in that game are available to play in this game. Looking at recent goals scored/allowed, season-long goals scored/allowed, and performance against the top-flight/bottom-rung teams I got that the teams would combine for – get this – 2.503 goals. Well, it’s closer to 3 than it is to 2 so I’ll go with the over here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) On paper these two teams match up fairly well. North Carolina State is a 2 to 3 point favorite by virtue of their being at home. In their game at Boston College the Eagles out rebounded the Wolf Pack 40 to 24, and had 19 offensive rebounds. Other than that the teams were nearly equal in every statistical category. Boston College won with a few more threes and a couple more free throws. Boston College will have to dominate the boards again to win this one, unless the Wolf Pack have a poor shooting night. If Boston College shoots poorly, however, they’re doomed.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) McNeal and Matthews are averaging 0.6 less than Blair and Young in their past 5 games. Recently at home, however, Blair and Young have been below their season average. McNeal and Matthews’ points per shot average is 1.50 while Blair and Young’s points per shot average is 1.37. Blair and Young generally play fewer minutes than McNeal and Matthews and are more prone to getting into foul trouble.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Defensively, Missouri will have no answer for Blake Griffin, with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons doing their best to stop the powerhouse. Missouri has also yet to lose at home this season, and it will be the final home game for Carroll and Lyons who are seniors. Missouri is a four point home favorite in this game, which is kind of surprising to me. It will be a hard fought game and Missouri should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Some people might think that since Texas is playing from behind they’ll be shooting a lot of threes and have more chances at making them. It’s true they’ll be forcing a lot of threes, and missing a lot, trying to come back. Kansas will have gotten their lead partly by getting good looks at threes, however. I think Texas Tech shoots below their average and Kansas hits theirs. Texas Tech shoots 37.1% on the season, Kansas shoots 39.0%. Texas Tech makes 7.07 threes and shoots 19.07 per game, Kansas makes 6.52 and shoots 16.72 on average. Kansas and Texas Tech each have three players averaging over 1.0 three point make per game, but Kansas also has another player hitting nearly 1.0.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
12) Camby averages more points and rebounds than Gay averages points and assists. In their past five games Camby is averaging more than Gay, and Camby averages more in his recent home games than Gay in his recent away games. Rudy Gay really doesn’t get many assists, that 6 against the Lakers last night are the most he’s had all season. He turns the ball over more than he gets assists. I also like that Camby can get rebounds on the offensive and defensive ends of the court, while Gay can only get assists on offense. Whether or not Randolph plays Camby will get his. Gay has won this prop in their previous two matchups which is why the confidence isn’t higher on this.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
March 3rd, 2009 Picks
Overall a good day, going 3-2-1 with my picks. New Orleans proved to have too much firepower for Philly with Posey and West having big games. The Sixers played poorly with the exception of Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala. New Orleans improves to 3-7 on the road in the second half of a back-to-back. I also failed to consider what would happen if Notre Dame had trouble holding onto the ball. They led, and probably still lead, the nation in terms of fewest numbers of turnovers per game. I also didn’t expect them to shoot 50% from the line, but that’s what happens when it’s your worst free throw shooters drawing fouls. Once they fell behind by 5 it was over. At least Braga, the Islanders, and Texas delivered. So on to today’s picks.
1) Chelsea (@Portsmouth) vs. Arsenal (@West Bromwich Albion) – Arsenal scores more goals
2) Juventus @ Lazio – Lazio wins
3) Florida Panthers @ Atlanta Thrashers – Florida
4) Michigan State @ Indiana – 130 points or more
5) Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
6) Oklahoma State vs. Georgetown – Georgetown has a greater winning margin
7) Wake Forest @ Maryland – Maryland
8) Auburn @ Alabama – Alabama
9) Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings – Indiana
10) Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks – 5 goals or fewer
Analysis
1) Chelsea did score 4 goals on Portsmouth in the first game of the season, and Arsenal scored only 1 goal on West Bromwich Albion. It’s fairly common for those scores to change in the second meeting of the Barclay’s Premier League campaign.
Against the bottom 6 teams in terms of goals allowed Chelsea has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 9 matches and Arsenal has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 7 matches. West Bromwich has averaged 2.75 goals allowed in 8 matches against the top 5 goal scoring teams, and Portsmouth has averaged 1.571 goals allowed in 7 matches. Averaging with goals scored/allowed in the past five games, the past five games at home/away, total goals scored/allowed, total goals scored/allowed at home/away, I came up with Arsenal scoring 1.763 goals and Chelsea scoring 1.603 goals. Basically two goals for each is most likely with Arsenal slightly more likely to score 2. So I pick Arsenal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Juventus played at Lazio earlier in the season and it was a 1-1 draw. This time around the game is at home for Lazio again, and both sides have roughly the same squads taking the field. The few injuries each have suffered are adequately made up for by their capable reserves. Lazio has more to play for in this game as the Coppa Italia title would grant them a berth in the UEFA Cup next year. That desire plays big in football and should be enough to power them to a win. Again, however, I would not be surprised if this were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) This reminds me of a recent matchup, Carolina at Atlanta. In that game Carolina had a 3 to 1 lead in the third period and gave up four straight goals to lose 5 – 3. Florida is a better team and have better goalies in the net, whether it’s Vokoun or Anderson. They should be able to avoid such a meltdown. Florida is 15-15-3 on the road and Atlanta is 11-17-2 at home.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
4) Just the stats here. Combined Romo average points allowed: 130.2, combined Romo average points scored: 127.3. Adjusted Romo average points allowed: 147.1. The adjusted points allowed takes turnovers and assists into account and has been tuned based on past over/under results. These two teams scored 122 points in their last meeting, but Michigan State was missing Raymar Morgan. In conference Michigan State scores more on the road than at home and Indiana scores more at home than on the road.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
6) Kansas State is a pretty good team. Oklahoma State has beaten Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M at home by an average of 7 points. Kansas State has defeated Texasm A&M and Texas on the road by an average of 4.5 points. Kansas State should play a competitive game against the Cowboys. Georgetown had a bad stretch losing to Seton Hall and Cincinnati on the road, but they’ve also beaten UCONN and Villanova on the road. I see them blowing out St. John’s.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) One should almost always go with the home team in the in-state rivalry game, especially when it’s senior night for the home team.
Confidence: W14 streak or less
10) San Jose and Dallas have gone under in three of their four previous meetings this season. Dallas has gone under in 67% of their last 15 games. San Jose has gone under in 53% of their last 15 games. Nabokov might be coming back in net for San Jose, but Boucher is capable as well as both have over 90% save percentages.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
1) Chelsea (@Portsmouth) vs. Arsenal (@West Bromwich Albion) – Arsenal scores more goals
2) Juventus @ Lazio – Lazio wins
3) Florida Panthers @ Atlanta Thrashers – Florida
4) Michigan State @ Indiana – 130 points or more
5) Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
6) Oklahoma State vs. Georgetown – Georgetown has a greater winning margin
7) Wake Forest @ Maryland – Maryland
8) Auburn @ Alabama – Alabama
9) Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings – Indiana
10) Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks – 5 goals or fewer
Analysis
1) Chelsea did score 4 goals on Portsmouth in the first game of the season, and Arsenal scored only 1 goal on West Bromwich Albion. It’s fairly common for those scores to change in the second meeting of the Barclay’s Premier League campaign.
Against the bottom 6 teams in terms of goals allowed Chelsea has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 9 matches and Arsenal has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 7 matches. West Bromwich has averaged 2.75 goals allowed in 8 matches against the top 5 goal scoring teams, and Portsmouth has averaged 1.571 goals allowed in 7 matches. Averaging with goals scored/allowed in the past five games, the past five games at home/away, total goals scored/allowed, total goals scored/allowed at home/away, I came up with Arsenal scoring 1.763 goals and Chelsea scoring 1.603 goals. Basically two goals for each is most likely with Arsenal slightly more likely to score 2. So I pick Arsenal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Juventus played at Lazio earlier in the season and it was a 1-1 draw. This time around the game is at home for Lazio again, and both sides have roughly the same squads taking the field. The few injuries each have suffered are adequately made up for by their capable reserves. Lazio has more to play for in this game as the Coppa Italia title would grant them a berth in the UEFA Cup next year. That desire plays big in football and should be enough to power them to a win. Again, however, I would not be surprised if this were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) This reminds me of a recent matchup, Carolina at Atlanta. In that game Carolina had a 3 to 1 lead in the third period and gave up four straight goals to lose 5 – 3. Florida is a better team and have better goalies in the net, whether it’s Vokoun or Anderson. They should be able to avoid such a meltdown. Florida is 15-15-3 on the road and Atlanta is 11-17-2 at home.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
4) Just the stats here. Combined Romo average points allowed: 130.2, combined Romo average points scored: 127.3. Adjusted Romo average points allowed: 147.1. The adjusted points allowed takes turnovers and assists into account and has been tuned based on past over/under results. These two teams scored 122 points in their last meeting, but Michigan State was missing Raymar Morgan. In conference Michigan State scores more on the road than at home and Indiana scores more at home than on the road.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
6) Kansas State is a pretty good team. Oklahoma State has beaten Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M at home by an average of 7 points. Kansas State has defeated Texasm A&M and Texas on the road by an average of 4.5 points. Kansas State should play a competitive game against the Cowboys. Georgetown had a bad stretch losing to Seton Hall and Cincinnati on the road, but they’ve also beaten UCONN and Villanova on the road. I see them blowing out St. John’s.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) One should almost always go with the home team in the in-state rivalry game, especially when it’s senior night for the home team.
Confidence: W14 streak or less
10) San Jose and Dallas have gone under in three of their four previous meetings this season. Dallas has gone under in 67% of their last 15 games. San Jose has gone under in 53% of their last 15 games. Nabokov might be coming back in net for San Jose, but Boucher is capable as well as both have over 90% save percentages.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Monday, March 2, 2009
March 2nd, 2009 Picks
Well, a pretty nice day overall as I went 4-1 with 3 or more goals in the Villa/Stoke match, Hamilton pts. and ast., Illinois, the Pacers, and Oregon. Illinois was a very disappointing loss as they had plenty of opportunities to take the lead and change the nature of the game. They were outrebounded, and they also turned the ball over too much (17 to 11 for MSU) and shot under 30% on their threes. The one time they had the game tied was the one time they were over 30% on three point shooting. That Inter Milan game was insane! I guess I should have expected a let down after the match with Manchester United. It’s like the Nuggets beating L.A. and then losing to the Pacers. On to another day and on to the picks.
1) Guimeraes @ Braga – Braga wins
2) New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Colorado Avalanche @ New York Islanders – New York
4) Villanova @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
5) New Mexico State vs. Texas – Texas has a greater winning margin
6) Tony Parker vs. Zach Randolph – Parker scores more points
Analysis
1) Braga will be missing their top goal scorer, Albert Ze Meyong, while Guimeraes will be adding a new signee to their team, Cìcero. Cìcero has been playing for Dinamo Moscow, though he was not called as a starter or a sub last year. He was a regular fixture on the Muscovite squad the year before but did not score a single goal. Meyong has the amazing stat of having 8 goals on 8 shots. That leaves 13 goals scored by other members of SC Braga. On the road Guimeraes has never won or drawn against an opponent who has allowed less than 10 goals at home. Braga has allowed 5. Braga has only drawn once at home and has shut out six opponents, all victories. Aside from the draw to Naval 1° Maio Braga has never lost to an opponent who allows more than 8 goals on the road. Guimeraes has allowed 15.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
2) This is New Orleans’ 15th back-to-back set of games this season. The Hornets are 2-7 on the road in the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve won both games four times, once at Golden State then at Phoenix, once at Oklahoma City then at home against Orlando, once at Memphis then at home against San Antonio and once in a home-and-home against Oklahoma City. They’ve split the back-to-back eight times, and lost both games twice. It seems more likely they’ll have a let down after a competitive game against New Jersey and split this back-to-back as well. Philadelphia is also looking as if they’re regaining their pre-All-Star break form. New Orleans is 15-13 on the road and Philadelphia is 17-13 at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Villanova has only lost three times on the road in conference, to a very good West Virginia team and to UCONN and Marquette. They’ve also won some close games against the bottom-feeders, a 2 point win over DePaul, a 4 point win over Seton Hall, and a 9 point win over South Florida. Notre Dame has beaten a good Louisville team, and beat them by 33. They also lost to Marquette by 7 and UCONN by 8. If Notre Dame can shoot 33% or better on threes and Luke Harangody can stay out of foul trouble they have a good shot of winning this game.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) New Mexico State went on the road and lost to Boise State by 3 points in a very close game. Texas went on the road and beat Baylor by 6 in another extremely close game. The Aggies are favored by 6.5 to 7 points, while the Longhorns are favored by 7.5 to 8 points. Boise State is a half-game back from New Mexico State in the WAC. Baylor is three games behind Texas in the Big 12.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
1) Guimeraes @ Braga – Braga wins
2) New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Colorado Avalanche @ New York Islanders – New York
4) Villanova @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
5) New Mexico State vs. Texas – Texas has a greater winning margin
6) Tony Parker vs. Zach Randolph – Parker scores more points
Analysis
1) Braga will be missing their top goal scorer, Albert Ze Meyong, while Guimeraes will be adding a new signee to their team, Cìcero. Cìcero has been playing for Dinamo Moscow, though he was not called as a starter or a sub last year. He was a regular fixture on the Muscovite squad the year before but did not score a single goal. Meyong has the amazing stat of having 8 goals on 8 shots. That leaves 13 goals scored by other members of SC Braga. On the road Guimeraes has never won or drawn against an opponent who has allowed less than 10 goals at home. Braga has allowed 5. Braga has only drawn once at home and has shut out six opponents, all victories. Aside from the draw to Naval 1° Maio Braga has never lost to an opponent who allows more than 8 goals on the road. Guimeraes has allowed 15.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
2) This is New Orleans’ 15th back-to-back set of games this season. The Hornets are 2-7 on the road in the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve won both games four times, once at Golden State then at Phoenix, once at Oklahoma City then at home against Orlando, once at Memphis then at home against San Antonio and once in a home-and-home against Oklahoma City. They’ve split the back-to-back eight times, and lost both games twice. It seems more likely they’ll have a let down after a competitive game against New Jersey and split this back-to-back as well. Philadelphia is also looking as if they’re regaining their pre-All-Star break form. New Orleans is 15-13 on the road and Philadelphia is 17-13 at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Villanova has only lost three times on the road in conference, to a very good West Virginia team and to UCONN and Marquette. They’ve also won some close games against the bottom-feeders, a 2 point win over DePaul, a 4 point win over Seton Hall, and a 9 point win over South Florida. Notre Dame has beaten a good Louisville team, and beat them by 33. They also lost to Marquette by 7 and UCONN by 8. If Notre Dame can shoot 33% or better on threes and Luke Harangody can stay out of foul trouble they have a good shot of winning this game.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) New Mexico State went on the road and lost to Boise State by 3 points in a very close game. Texas went on the road and beat Baylor by 6 in another extremely close game. The Aggies are favored by 6.5 to 7 points, while the Longhorns are favored by 7.5 to 8 points. Boise State is a half-game back from New Mexico State in the WAC. Baylor is three games behind Texas in the Big 12.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
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