February 26th, 2009 Picks

Well, at 87% correct yesterday I had my best day by far. It still really gets my goat that of the two games I mis-called I actually picked those two games! Out of all the other choices…. I mis-called the Kansas State and Missouri game, it was only over by 16 points, mainly due to the teams combining for 68 free throws. But hey, that’s the Big12 for some teams. Liverpool looked strong as well, Madrid appeared to have lost some of their recent form. A great away victory for Liverpool, look for them to advance into the quarterfinals. And so on to the picks.

1) Brian Gay vs. David Toms – Gay has a better first round score
2) Aston Villa @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow advances
3) Woods wins by hole 10-15 vs. Woods wins by 16+ or loses – Woods wins on 16+ or loses
4) Fiorentina @ Ajax Amsterdam – 3 goals or more
5) Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers – Florida Panthers
6) West Virginia @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati has more three pointers
7) Xavier @ St. Joseph’s – 133 points or more
8) Cleveland @ Houston – Cleveland
9) Miami (FL) @ Virginia – Virginia
10) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Edmonton Oilers – 6 goals or more
11) Purdue @ Michigan – Purdue
12) Memphis vs. Murray State – Murray State has a larger winning margin
13) James Harden vs. Justin Dentmon – Harden pts.

Analysis
1) Brian Gay won this event at this course last year. It’s a shorter course which will negate some of Toms’ advantage in driving distance. Gay hits more greens in regulation and is slightly more accurate with his drives which is important on this course with tropical winds being a factor. That should be enough to overcome Toms’ fewer putts per hole. Finally, in the three past events these two have played together Gay has had the lower first round score all three times.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

2) Aston Villa is resting the majority of their starters for this match and CSKA already has an away goal. With all the reserves playing for Aston Villa CSKA Moscow should comfortably pull this out.
Confidence: W15 streak or less

3) Woods had a couple of eagles in the first round, which is great, but he also had a couple of bogeys. Jones couldn’t capitalize on that but Clark should be able to. Clark had zero bogeys in the first round, so he would win those holes against Woods. If Jones could go 16 holes against Woods, Clark should be able to as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) Florida has had a day to rest while New York is traveling from Toronto after losing to the Maple Leafs yesterday. Vokoun should be back in net for the Panthers, but even if he is not Anderson has had the Rangers’ number this season. New York’s coach has been quoted saying his team looks too tired at the end of games as well. Florida bounces back on the road here with a 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 win.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) Cincinnati shoots a higher percentage on threes and has 4 players averaging one made three pointer. West Virginia makes close to the same number of threes and Cincy but have only three players averaging one three or more per game. West Virginia has a good defense and typically disrupts three point shooting teams, but Cincinnati has shot well against other teams in their conference who defend the three well.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) Cleveland is on a level above Houston being contenders to reach the Finals while Houston will count itself fortunate to achieve a first round win. Delonte West will be returning for the Cavaliers and they have LeBron. Houston doesn’t have the advantage in many of the matchups, except perhaps with Scola versus Wallace.
Confidence: W9 streak or less

9) Virginia is pretty good at the turnover game, one of Miami’s weaknesses. They’re also at home. I like the upset here and don’t think McClinton can beat Virginia on his own.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Memphis at UAB is a major rivalry game pitting the top two C-USA schools against one another. UAB lost this game by 1 point last year, and Memphis had Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans is good, but is he that good? Murray State plays in a weaker conference where 20 point swings from home to away games are common. Morehead State is not very good on the road and Murray State is playing well right now. Murray State wins by 15, Memphis wins by 7.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

13) Harden scores 1.66 points per shot while Dentmon shoots a terrific 1.53 points per shot. 0.13 difference is still significant with this stat. Dentmon had his best game of the season at ASU earlier in the year. I think it’s more likely he just had a great game than that ASU can’t defend him. Harden is the ‘safer’ choice, but not by much.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

February 25th, 2009 Picks

Well, I was pretty damn pleased when Inter Milan and Manchester United combined to score zero goals in their match. I was heartbroken when Nebraska completely shut down and lost to Texas A&M by two. Overall, not a great day, but I did get a few nice ones correct. So on to the next days picks!

1) Stewart Cink vs. Richard Sterne – Cink
2) Yukon/Northwest Territores vs. Nova Scotia – Yukon/Northwest Territory
3) Mike Weir vs. Hunter Mahan – Mahan
4) Woods wins on hole 10-15 vs. wins on hole 16+ or loses – Wins on 16+ or loses
5) Tim Clark vs. Retief Goosen – Clark
6) Liverpool @ Real Madrid – Real Madrid
7) Juventus @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
8) Connecticut @ Marquette – Connecticut
9) Kentucky @ South Carolina – South Carolina
10) San Jose @ Detroit – Detroit
11) New York Rangers @ Toronto – Toronto
12) Brandon Roy pts+reb vs. Tim Duncan pts+reb – Roy pts+reb
13) Kansas State @ Missouri – 152 points or fewer
14) Kyle Singler vs. Greivis Vasquez – Singler gets more points
15) Texas Tech @ Texas – Texas Tech has more three pointers
16) Charlotte @ Sacramento – Charlotte

Analysis
2) Nova Scotia has only one victory, against Manitoba. Northwest Territory/Yukon only has two wins, but one of them is a come-from-behind victory over Team Canada.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) Pro golfers are good, some better than others. Until Tiger proves he’s back to top form I have to assume he’ll be taken the distance by whoever he plays.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

6) Liverpool returns Gerrard and Alonso which should help them a great deal, but Real Madrid is on a 9 – 0 – 0 tear in the Spanish Premier League, scoring 22 goals and allowing only 2. Plus, Atletico Madrid, a team that Liverpool pulled a draw against twice in group play has been beaten at home by Real Madrid 2 -1 when Real wasn’t playing with such form.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) Very dangerous to pick under with Juventus in the house and with Chelsea fielding Anelka and Drogba, two potent strikers. Chelsea should hold strong at home, however. I expect Juventus to do the same, losing to Chelsea 1 – 0 or 2 – 0.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

9) South Carolina has already beaten Kentucky at Kentucky, though it was on a last second shot. South Carolina is as good as the Wildcats this year with two main differences. One, the Gamecocks don’t have a player receiving as much media attention as Jodie Meeks, and two, their conference losses have come to opponents with 16 total losses while Kentucky’s losses have come to opponents with 22 total losses. South Carolina at home here is the clincher.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

11) The Rangers have a better record overall and have a better away record than Toronto has home record. New York is only 1 – 1 – 1 against Toronto, however, losing at Toronto, and losing at home in a shootout.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

13) Yea, these two teams are high powered offenses who should easily put up 153 points. They’re also not bad defensively. Lately they haven’t been scoring as much. In conference Kansas State has gone over in only 2 of 6 away games, and one of those required overtime to go over. Missouri has gone over in 3 of 6 home games. Their last game went over by 7 points, but that’s not a predictor here. Plus, I have a system.
Confidence: W8 streak or less

14) Singler is the more consistent scorer here with a 0.11 advantage in points per shot, which is significant. Vasquez will have to have another phenomenal game wherein he takes 20+ shots, and I don’t see Duke letting that happen after watching UNC go down.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

15) Texas Tech averages more threes per game than Texas and shoots at a higher percentage. Texas has mainly A.J. Abrams to rely on for threes while Tech has three players that average one three pointer or more per game. Even in a 71 – 49 loss Texas Tech shot 7 threes to 6 for Texas.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

Good luck today, sorry about the Nebraska pick if anybody picked them.

February 24th, 2009 Picks

Well, went 6-4-0 yesterday, and I could just punch myself for passing up the chance to pick Boston and going with Golden State instead. Especially since I had more confidence in Boston (W7 vs. W3). On to the next streak and on to the picks.

1) AS Roma @ Arsenal – AS Roma win or draw
2) Manchester United @ Inter Milan – 2 goals or fewer
3) O.J. Mayo + Rudy Gay pts. vs. LeBron James pts. – Mayo and Gay
4) Colorado Avalanche @ Atlanta Thrashers – Colorado
5) Penn State @ Ohio State – 127 or over
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens – Vancouver
7) Portland @ Houston – Portland
8) Florida @ LSU – LSU
9) Florida State @ Boston College – Florida State
10) Texas A&M @ Nebraska – Nebraska
11) Brigham Young @ San Diego State – Brigham Young

Analysis
1) Arsenal is missing strikers Adebayor and Walcott, midfielder Fabregas, and defender Silvestre while AS Roma is essentially at full strength. Roma has not won in England recently, but today is a day they should not lose.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

2) Internazionale (Inter Milan) has averaged a total score of 1.3 in their home matches in the Champions League; Manchester United has averaged a total score of 1.7 in their away matches. 0 of 3 home matches have gone 3 goals or over for Internazionale and 1 of 3 of Manchester United’s away matches have gone over. Even in their home leagues Inter averages a total score of 2.2 and Manchester United averages a total score of 1.7. Manchester United is missing a number of key defenders, notably Nemanja Vidic, Jonathan Evans, and Gary Neville, but they will have a strong defense on the field with or without O’Shea since they can play midfielders as defenders. Additionally, the only goals the Red Devils have conceded in Champions League play have been when Vidic, Rafael, or Neville have been on the field. Inter Milan is missing Mazzerati on defense, but more than make up for that with the addition of Chivu.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

5) It’s not that Penn State and Ohio State like to eke out victorys with monumental defensive efforts, but they can play that game if forced to (see: Penn St. 38-33 Illinois the other day). These teams know how to put up points and it seems unlikely PSU will shoot as poorly as they did against Illinois. Plus, you’d think OSU could get at least a few free throws, unlike Illinois. And I have a system for these.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) I’ll have to do more research but I don’t really see a reason to expect Florida will have a chance in this one on the road. LSU has been playing well lately and one shouldn’t expect Florida to defeat LSU at home when they’ve already lost to Tennessee and Georgia. Again, it seems unlikely they’ll have another 50+% game from beyond the arc when they’re only 37.3% from three on the season.
Confidence: W13 streak or less

10) Nebraska has a great defense, especially at home. They consistently force more turnovers than they give up. They also keep offenses from flowing, as evidenced by only one conference opponent getting 10 assists against them (all the rest had fewer than 10). They will probably be outrebounded by Texas A&M but the Aggies will need another 29 free throw edge to beat the Cornhuskers here.
Confidence: W20 streak or less

Good luck y’all!

February 23rd, 2009 Picks

Bad day, 25% correct is by far the worst I’ve done here. I did get the Genoa pick, Boston, the over/under on Duke and Wake and the Harden more points prop. Overall I’ve been doing great on over/unders in college basketball, but the straight up picks have been shite. And it looks like there are two early morning additions to the schedule and so on to the picks.

1) Tottenham Hotspur @ Hull City – 3 goals or over
2) Quebec vs. Alberta – Quebec
3) Louisville @ Georgetown – Louisville
4) Philadelphia 76ers @ New Jersey Nets – Philadelphia
5) San Jose @ Dallas – 5 goals or less
6) Tennesse-Martin @ Murray State – Murray State
7) Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets – Boston
8) Kansas @ Oklahoma – Oklahoma
9) Alberta vs. British Columbia – Alberta
10) Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers – Golden State

Analysis
1) Hull City has gone over in 75% of their home games and Tottenham has gone over in 58% of their away games. Average total goals scored in Hull City home matches: 3.2, average total goals scored in Tottenham away matches: 3.1. Still, on any given Monday a squad may fail to find the net.
Confidence: W3 streak or less.

3) We already saw this game on here and the Hoyas showed they don’t have what it takes to win this kind of game. Cardinals win, just like Marquette did.
Confidence: W12 streak or less

6) Murray State lost at Tennessee-Martin by four points and shot 50% from the foul line. They are a 70+% free throw shooting team, so they easily could have won that game. Murray State also has an impressive 9 point loss at Missouri in their non-conference schedule. Tennessee-Martin lacks a game like that on their schedule. Lester Hudson will give the Skyhawks a big push and it should be a close game. Murray State has also proven to have the capability to choke away close games. I still think they win at home.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) Surprising to see this matchup on here as Nene just went down for Denver during the final minute of their game against Milwaukee yesterday. Both teams are on the second of a back-to-back, with Boston hammering Phoenix in Phoenix and Denver losing to the Bucks. Kenyon Martin looks to return tonight with Renaldo Balkman also seeing a few minutes. Still, the Celtics are a mature team and Denver will be hard pressed to beat them a second time this season. Kenyon Martin may come back strong, or gingerly, depending on how tight his back is.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

10) Golden State is more talented with Al Thornton, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby all out. The loss of Monta Ellis will hurt, but they should get Biedrins back. With the Clippers looking like they’ve quit on the season by now the Warriors look like a solid pick.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

If I didn’t bold the pick it means I wouldn’t pick it. Though I’m tempted with Quebec/Alberta, the Quebecois have been doing well so far.

February 22nd, 2009 Picks

Agghh! What a terrible day; while my picks went 9-9-0, mainly thanks to NASCAR, curling, and NHL, my entry obtained a record of 1-5-0 for the day. And so now, on to the picks.

1) Genoa @ Napoli – Genoa win or draw
2) Hamburg SV @ Bayer Leverkusen – Bayer Leverkusen win
3) Newfoundland/Labradour vs. British Columbia – Newfoundland/Labradour
4) New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors – New York
5) Villanova @ Syracuse – Syracuse
6) Pete Weber/Chris Barnes vs. Mike Fagan/Jeff Carter – Weber/Barnes
7) Northern Trust Open Winner’s 4th round score – 67 or under
8) Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns – Boston
9) Yukon/Northwest vs. New Brunswick – Yukon/Northwest
10) Michigan @ Iowa – Michigan
11) Seton Hall @ St. John’s – Seton Hall
12) Dwayne Wade pts+ast vs. Dwight Howard pts+reb – Howard pts+reb
13) Jimmie Johnson vs. Kyle Busch – Johnson
14) Wake Forest @ Duke – 151 points or more
15) Allen Iverson vs. Mo Williams – Williams scores more points
16) Chase Buddinger vs. James Harden – Harden scores more points

1) Genoa has been ‘hot’ on the road winning or drawing their last 5 of their last 6, their most recent away match losing 3 – 0 to AS Roma. Napoli has lost or drawn their last 3 at home. Napoli is also without their first string goali (Iezzo) or their second strong goalie (Gianello). The return of Sculli should also buoy Genoa here.
2) Bayer Leverkusen are completely healthy while Hamburg is missing defender Bastian Reinhardt and striker Mladen Petric. Still, this could easily go Hamburgs way as Bayer have lost or drawn their last three matches at home. My gut says go with the lower % here, however.
5) Simple, Syracuse is at home and their conference is better represented in March Madness if Syracuse wins this game and locks up an at-large bid.
7) Mickelson leads by four strokes. If Mickelson shoots 4 under or better it’s guaranteed to be 67 or less.
9) Yukon/Northwest wins due to their unique form of beauty (see the large one on the left). I would say I’m confident in Newfoundland/Labradour, but it’s difficult to say if they are truly uglier than British Columbia.
10) Another team on the bubble who need to basically win out their final games to make it to the tournament. Should be a tough game but Michigan may be able to pressure and trap Iowa at will without fear of fouling near the end.
11) Wake and Duke are not Big10 teams who play 2-3 zone all game. The last game was well under at 138, but hey, I’ve got a system here.
16) Buddinger has a lower pps (points per shot) than Harden, significantly. If Harden can get some shots off and get to the line at home he should win.

That’s all for today, best of luck to all of ye. But bestest luck of all to me. =D

February 21st, 2009 Picks

Another poor day for me today. I picked against myself on Borussia Dortmund and ended up with another loss due to goals scored after the 80th minute. SC Freiburg was unable to muster more than one goal, while FC Augsburg could not put in even one. Many shots off target in that match. Ogilvie birdied the final hole to tie Ernie Els in a close push. Niagara demolished Illinois State, and in retrospect I should have seen it coming. The numbers and home court supported Niagara. Nevada pulled out a close one against VCU, wish I’d picked that one. Orlando played a nice game, leading Charlotte by 13 or 15 for most of the game. Houston came back in the second half against Dallas and repulsed their runs in the fourth to take a victory at home. And in the final game of the night David West turned in a lazy performance, while Pau was Pau. West turned the ball over multiple times while driving to the basket and walked up the court on offense until overtime. New Orleans tried to bump and push Gasol to tire him out, but he played well, scoring on dunks when the defense lost him. Gasol 20, West 16. And now, the picks!

1) Chelsea @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win or draw
2) Inter Milan @ Bologna FC – Inter Milan win
3) Notre Dame @ Providence – Providence
4) Geoff Ogilvie vs. Phil Mickelson – Ogilvie has a lower 3rd round score
5) Chicago Blackhaws @ Dallas Stars – Chicago
6) Marquette @ Georgetown – Georgetown
7) Ontario vs. Newfoundland/Labradour – Ontario
8) Kyle Busch vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Busch
9) North Carolina winning margin vs. Landon Milbourne points – UNC margin
10) Miami (OH) @ Evansville – Miami (OH)
11) Utah State @ St. Mary’s – St. Mary’s
12) Texas A&M @ Texas Tech – Texas A&M
13) Boston Bruins @ Florida Panthers – Boston
14) Greg Biffle vs. Carl Edwards – Edwards has a better final position
15) Oklahoma @ Texas – Oklahoma
16) Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers – Calgary
17) New Brunswick vs. Prince Edward Island – Prince Edward Island
18) Brigham Young @ UNLV – Brigham Young

1) Chelsea is missing Ashley Cole, while Aston Villa is missing Martin Laursen, advantage even. Chelsea are also missing Essien who started in their most impressive road victory, against Wigan Athletic. The other injuries should not have a large effect, though Carvalho returning could give Chelsea a boost, as could Emile Heskey returning for Aston Villa. In the end, Chelsea has not shown they can defeat anybody in the promotion ranks away at their pitch.
2) Inter Milan should dominate this game. Burdisso and Chivu being out is not important, though if Stankovic sits to rest for Manchester United it would hurt Inter. Volpi being out for Bologna is not good, but not bad, they are really just hoping for Mundingayi to return. Bologna is just not a good home team, with the fewest number of wins and draws of any opponent Inter has faced, including relegation squads. It would be a major victory for Bologna to pull even a draw.
3) For college matchups some friends of mine have devised a simple formula, it’s been working so far for straight up matchups, and total points over/unders. It predicted Niagara yesterday, but I didn’t listen. Providence is at home, and should win by 10 or more.
4) Ogilvie drives about as far as Mickelson, averages more birdies per round, hits more greens in regulation, drives more accurately, and has fewer putts per hole.
5) Chicago is missing their main goalie Khabibulin, and their top goal scorer Patrick Sharp. Huet is the backup goalie and is 3-1 in his last four starts. Dallas is missing some big point men as well in Zubov, Richards, and Morrow. Both teams are hot right now, but Chicago should get more shots on goal and eventually prevail.
6) Marquette is a very slight favorite according to the formula, but Georgetown is at home and experience has shown that the home court advantage is enough to offset being a slight underdog. Georgetown by 3 in overtime.
7) Ontarios curling team is uglier than Newfoundland/Labroudor, plus they have some old women who must be really good at curling, otherwise why wouldn’t some younger, prettier lady be on the team?
8) Busch won the last truck race, he has a shot to win this one as well.
9) UNC is a 12 point favorite or so, Milbourne averages 13 points per game. The Tarheels defense will keep him quiet, however. He has had too many games with under 10 points and UNC should win by 10, 15, or even 20+.
10) Miami (OH) is the underdog but I think they’ll win by 6 or 7 and have a big lead at some point in the game.
11) St. Mary’s College looked pretty damn good against Gonzaga, and they’re at home. USU has a real shot to win this, but SMC should run away in the end.
12) Texas A&M is a 2 point favorite, and I agree.
13) Boston is the favorite, though the two teams are evenly matched in terms of GAA for the goalies, save%, and average shots on goal. Florida has been better in the past 10 games, but Chicago’s defeat of them Wednesday is the first taste of things to come.
14) Carl Edwards finished last years circuit hot and is continuing into this year.
15) Oklahoma may be on the road, but they have something to prove. I see them as big favorites and will hopefully finish the game strong, instead of starting strong and letting Texas back into it.
16) Calgary just lost their second leading scorer to injury, but Edmonton has lost two of their top defensemen. Without their help Calgary can look forward to another 6 to 4 type of win.
17) Prince Edward Island. Seriously, check out their team photo. See those two on the right? They’re the ones to watch out for.
18) Brigham Young and UNLV are pretty good shooting teams and will make you pay for leaving them open. BYU a little moreso than UNLV. Advantage, BYU, and a handy 7 point win.

18 games is quite a bit, here’s hoping you can find two or six in there to turn to your advantage. Good luck ever’buddy.

February 20th, 2009 Picks

Well, today was a turr-ible picking day for me, rather than going with a couple of winners in Lamont Mack and Mike Rosario I switched my picks to the Panthers, who got thwomped by the Blackhawks, and Fresno State, who lost a close one to the Rainbow Warriors at home. The soccer picks were fairly brutal too, with the Udinese match going over in the 81st minute and FC Copenhagen tying things up in the first minute of injury time. On a brighter note my over/under formula predicted total points in the Duke game to be 141.7 and they were actually 145, only 3.3 points off. And then, to make everything fine the Utah Jazz defeated Boston, 90-85. Yeah, yeah, Garnett was out for the second half, but Carlos Boozer was out for the entire game! Just to be complete, Weir dominated, taking the lead at the Northern Trust Open, Dudi beat Serra in straight sets, going to tie-breaks for both, Mack outscored Brown 12-2 in the second half to win, Wisconsin played great defense to make many more threes than Indiana, Columbus won in a shootout, and Minnesota took Calgary to overtime before falling. Finally, Darren Collison had a fine game, scoring 17 points with 5 assists to Thomas’ 12 points and 2 assists. So onto the picks.

1) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Ernie Els – Ogilvie will have a lower 2nd round score
2) FC Augsburg @ SC Freiburg – 3 or more
3) Borussia Dortmund @ Schalke 04 – Borussia Dortmund win or draw
4) Illinois State @ Niagara – Illinois State
5) Orlanda Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats – Orlando
6) Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets – Dallas
7) Virginia Commonwealth @ Nevada – Nevada
8) David West vs. Pau Gasol – David West scores more points

1) Ogilvie has been playing better this year overall and has fewer rounds at even or over par than Els.
2) Freiburg could easily put 3 on Augsburg on their own, but I see 2-1 as more likely.
3) Borussia Dortmund just had a road loss against Bayern Munich, they’ve followed a road loss with a road win or tie every time this year.
4) Illinois State just has more talented players than Niagara I think and are ranked slightly higher in RPI. They also play in a slightly tougher conference.
5) Charlotte doesn’t have a Chris Paul to attack Orlando with.
6) Houston is missing Rafer Alston, though Aaron Brooks should fill in nicely. Tracy McGrady is also out, but Houston is still pretty good without him. I see Dirk Nowitzki and Terry outpacing Yao and Artest here.
7) Nevada is a tough pick, VCU is good, but not so much on the road. Nevada has the size to avoid getting pushed around and stay up on VCUs big guards so I expect them to struggle a bit, giving Nevada the advantage. Plus, VCU rarely travels so far for a game. They did beat New Mexico in Cancun, but UNM players probably partied before that one anyways.
8) David West is almost a sure thing I think. Pau Gasol has been scoring below average at home recently, while West has been scoring above average on the road recently. Another 40 point game in L.A. for West?

I’ll be taking the 3+ and Borussia Dortmund in the morning then probably Illinois State and David West, though my mind could definitely be changed on ISU.