February 20th, 2009 Picks

Well, today was a turr-ible picking day for me, rather than going with a couple of winners in Lamont Mack and Mike Rosario I switched my picks to the Panthers, who got thwomped by the Blackhawks, and Fresno State, who lost a close one to the Rainbow Warriors at home. The soccer picks were fairly brutal too, with the Udinese match going over in the 81st minute and FC Copenhagen tying things up in the first minute of injury time. On a brighter note my over/under formula predicted total points in the Duke game to be 141.7 and they were actually 145, only 3.3 points off. And then, to make everything fine the Utah Jazz defeated Boston, 90-85. Yeah, yeah, Garnett was out for the second half, but Carlos Boozer was out for the entire game! Just to be complete, Weir dominated, taking the lead at the Northern Trust Open, Dudi beat Serra in straight sets, going to tie-breaks for both, Mack outscored Brown 12-2 in the second half to win, Wisconsin played great defense to make many more threes than Indiana, Columbus won in a shootout, and Minnesota took Calgary to overtime before falling. Finally, Darren Collison had a fine game, scoring 17 points with 5 assists to Thomas’ 12 points and 2 assists. So onto the picks.

1) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Ernie Els – Ogilvie will have a lower 2nd round score
2) FC Augsburg @ SC Freiburg – 3 or more
3) Borussia Dortmund @ Schalke 04 – Borussia Dortmund win or draw
4) Illinois State @ Niagara – Illinois State
5) Orlanda Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats – Orlando
6) Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets – Dallas
7) Virginia Commonwealth @ Nevada – Nevada
8) David West vs. Pau Gasol – David West scores more points

1) Ogilvie has been playing better this year overall and has fewer rounds at even or over par than Els.
2) Freiburg could easily put 3 on Augsburg on their own, but I see 2-1 as more likely.
3) Borussia Dortmund just had a road loss against Bayern Munich, they’ve followed a road loss with a road win or tie every time this year.
4) Illinois State just has more talented players than Niagara I think and are ranked slightly higher in RPI. They also play in a slightly tougher conference.
5) Charlotte doesn’t have a Chris Paul to attack Orlando with.
6) Houston is missing Rafer Alston, though Aaron Brooks should fill in nicely. Tracy McGrady is also out, but Houston is still pretty good without him. I see Dirk Nowitzki and Terry outpacing Yao and Artest here.
7) Nevada is a tough pick, VCU is good, but not so much on the road. Nevada has the size to avoid getting pushed around and stay up on VCUs big guards so I expect them to struggle a bit, giving Nevada the advantage. Plus, VCU rarely travels so far for a game. They did beat New Mexico in Cancun, but UNM players probably partied before that one anyways.
8) David West is almost a sure thing I think. Pau Gasol has been scoring below average at home recently, while West has been scoring above average on the road recently. Another 40 point game in L.A. for West?

I’ll be taking the 3+ and Borussia Dortmund in the morning then probably Illinois State and David West, though my mind could definitely be changed on ISU.