February 21st, 2009 Picks

Another poor day for me today. I picked against myself on Borussia Dortmund and ended up with another loss due to goals scored after the 80th minute. SC Freiburg was unable to muster more than one goal, while FC Augsburg could not put in even one. Many shots off target in that match. Ogilvie birdied the final hole to tie Ernie Els in a close push. Niagara demolished Illinois State, and in retrospect I should have seen it coming. The numbers and home court supported Niagara. Nevada pulled out a close one against VCU, wish I’d picked that one. Orlando played a nice game, leading Charlotte by 13 or 15 for most of the game. Houston came back in the second half against Dallas and repulsed their runs in the fourth to take a victory at home. And in the final game of the night David West turned in a lazy performance, while Pau was Pau. West turned the ball over multiple times while driving to the basket and walked up the court on offense until overtime. New Orleans tried to bump and push Gasol to tire him out, but he played well, scoring on dunks when the defense lost him. Gasol 20, West 16. And now, the picks!

1) Chelsea @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win or draw
2) Inter Milan @ Bologna FC – Inter Milan win
3) Notre Dame @ Providence – Providence
4) Geoff Ogilvie vs. Phil Mickelson – Ogilvie has a lower 3rd round score
5) Chicago Blackhaws @ Dallas Stars – Chicago
6) Marquette @ Georgetown – Georgetown
7) Ontario vs. Newfoundland/Labradour – Ontario
8) Kyle Busch vs. Ron Hornaday Jr. – Busch
9) North Carolina winning margin vs. Landon Milbourne points – UNC margin
10) Miami (OH) @ Evansville – Miami (OH)
11) Utah State @ St. Mary’s – St. Mary’s
12) Texas A&M @ Texas Tech – Texas A&M
13) Boston Bruins @ Florida Panthers – Boston
14) Greg Biffle vs. Carl Edwards – Edwards has a better final position
15) Oklahoma @ Texas – Oklahoma
16) Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers – Calgary
17) New Brunswick vs. Prince Edward Island – Prince Edward Island
18) Brigham Young @ UNLV – Brigham Young

1) Chelsea is missing Ashley Cole, while Aston Villa is missing Martin Laursen, advantage even. Chelsea are also missing Essien who started in their most impressive road victory, against Wigan Athletic. The other injuries should not have a large effect, though Carvalho returning could give Chelsea a boost, as could Emile Heskey returning for Aston Villa. In the end, Chelsea has not shown they can defeat anybody in the promotion ranks away at their pitch.
2) Inter Milan should dominate this game. Burdisso and Chivu being out is not important, though if Stankovic sits to rest for Manchester United it would hurt Inter. Volpi being out for Bologna is not good, but not bad, they are really just hoping for Mundingayi to return. Bologna is just not a good home team, with the fewest number of wins and draws of any opponent Inter has faced, including relegation squads. It would be a major victory for Bologna to pull even a draw.
3) For college matchups some friends of mine have devised a simple formula, it’s been working so far for straight up matchups, and total points over/unders. It predicted Niagara yesterday, but I didn’t listen. Providence is at home, and should win by 10 or more.
4) Ogilvie drives about as far as Mickelson, averages more birdies per round, hits more greens in regulation, drives more accurately, and has fewer putts per hole.
5) Chicago is missing their main goalie Khabibulin, and their top goal scorer Patrick Sharp. Huet is the backup goalie and is 3-1 in his last four starts. Dallas is missing some big point men as well in Zubov, Richards, and Morrow. Both teams are hot right now, but Chicago should get more shots on goal and eventually prevail.
6) Marquette is a very slight favorite according to the formula, but Georgetown is at home and experience has shown that the home court advantage is enough to offset being a slight underdog. Georgetown by 3 in overtime.
7) Ontarios curling team is uglier than Newfoundland/Labroudor, plus they have some old women who must be really good at curling, otherwise why wouldn’t some younger, prettier lady be on the team?
8) Busch won the last truck race, he has a shot to win this one as well.
9) UNC is a 12 point favorite or so, Milbourne averages 13 points per game. The Tarheels defense will keep him quiet, however. He has had too many games with under 10 points and UNC should win by 10, 15, or even 20+.
10) Miami (OH) is the underdog but I think they’ll win by 6 or 7 and have a big lead at some point in the game.
11) St. Mary’s College looked pretty damn good against Gonzaga, and they’re at home. USU has a real shot to win this, but SMC should run away in the end.
12) Texas A&M is a 2 point favorite, and I agree.
13) Boston is the favorite, though the two teams are evenly matched in terms of GAA for the goalies, save%, and average shots on goal. Florida has been better in the past 10 games, but Chicago’s defeat of them Wednesday is the first taste of things to come.
14) Carl Edwards finished last years circuit hot and is continuing into this year.
15) Oklahoma may be on the road, but they have something to prove. I see them as big favorites and will hopefully finish the game strong, instead of starting strong and letting Texas back into it.
16) Calgary just lost their second leading scorer to injury, but Edmonton has lost two of their top defensemen. Without their help Calgary can look forward to another 6 to 4 type of win.
17) Prince Edward Island. Seriously, check out their team photo. See those two on the right? They’re the ones to watch out for.
18) Brigham Young and UNLV are pretty good shooting teams and will make you pay for leaving them open. BYU a little moreso than UNLV. Advantage, BYU, and a handy 7 point win.

18 games is quite a bit, here’s hoping you can find two or six in there to turn to your advantage. Good luck ever’buddy.

February 20th, 2009 Picks

Well, today was a turr-ible picking day for me, rather than going with a couple of winners in Lamont Mack and Mike Rosario I switched my picks to the Panthers, who got thwomped by the Blackhawks, and Fresno State, who lost a close one to the Rainbow Warriors at home. The soccer picks were fairly brutal too, with the Udinese match going over in the 81st minute and FC Copenhagen tying things up in the first minute of injury time. On a brighter note my over/under formula predicted total points in the Duke game to be 141.7 and they were actually 145, only 3.3 points off. And then, to make everything fine the Utah Jazz defeated Boston, 90-85. Yeah, yeah, Garnett was out for the second half, but Carlos Boozer was out for the entire game! Just to be complete, Weir dominated, taking the lead at the Northern Trust Open, Dudi beat Serra in straight sets, going to tie-breaks for both, Mack outscored Brown 12-2 in the second half to win, Wisconsin played great defense to make many more threes than Indiana, Columbus won in a shootout, and Minnesota took Calgary to overtime before falling. Finally, Darren Collison had a fine game, scoring 17 points with 5 assists to Thomas’ 12 points and 2 assists. So onto the picks.

1) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Ernie Els – Ogilvie will have a lower 2nd round score
2) FC Augsburg @ SC Freiburg – 3 or more
3) Borussia Dortmund @ Schalke 04 – Borussia Dortmund win or draw
4) Illinois State @ Niagara – Illinois State
5) Orlanda Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats – Orlando
6) Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets – Dallas
7) Virginia Commonwealth @ Nevada – Nevada
8) David West vs. Pau Gasol – David West scores more points

1) Ogilvie has been playing better this year overall and has fewer rounds at even or over par than Els.
2) Freiburg could easily put 3 on Augsburg on their own, but I see 2-1 as more likely.
3) Borussia Dortmund just had a road loss against Bayern Munich, they’ve followed a road loss with a road win or tie every time this year.
4) Illinois State just has more talented players than Niagara I think and are ranked slightly higher in RPI. They also play in a slightly tougher conference.
5) Charlotte doesn’t have a Chris Paul to attack Orlando with.
6) Houston is missing Rafer Alston, though Aaron Brooks should fill in nicely. Tracy McGrady is also out, but Houston is still pretty good without him. I see Dirk Nowitzki and Terry outpacing Yao and Artest here.
7) Nevada is a tough pick, VCU is good, but not so much on the road. Nevada has the size to avoid getting pushed around and stay up on VCUs big guards so I expect them to struggle a bit, giving Nevada the advantage. Plus, VCU rarely travels so far for a game. They did beat New Mexico in Cancun, but UNM players probably partied before that one anyways.
8) David West is almost a sure thing I think. Pau Gasol has been scoring below average at home recently, while West has been scoring above average on the road recently. Another 40 point game in L.A. for West?

I’ll be taking the 3+ and Borussia Dortmund in the morning then probably Illinois State and David West, though my mind could definitely be changed on ISU.

February 19th, 2009 Picks

Yesterday I made the mistake of going with the over/under in hockey rather than rolling with Oklahoma State. I blame the 5-on-3 power play that led to the goal that put it over. CSKA Moscow and Florida State handled their business, however, to give me two green tacos. Overall the picks went 8-3-0, a little over 70%, not bad. And so on to the next days picks.

1) Phil Mickelson vs. Mike Weir – Weir will have a lower 1st round score
2) Dudi Sela vs. Florent Serra – Serra
3) Udinese @ Lech Poznan – 2 goals or less
4) Manchester City @ FC Copenhagen – Manchester City win
5) Derrick Brown vs. Lamont Mack – Mack has more points
6) Duke @ St. John’s – 139 points or more
7) Columbus @ Toronto – Columbus
8) Chicago @ Florida – Florida
9) Calgary @ Minnesota – Minnesota
10) Mike Rosario points vs. Villanova winning margin – Rosario points
11) Wisconsin @ Indiana – Indiana has more 3-pointers
12) Hawaii @ Fresno State – Fresno State
13) Isaiah Thomas vs. Darren Collison – Thomas has more points+assists

Udinese is apparently more concerned with Serie A so I see them as being content to play defense which should take away Lech Poznan’s counter-attack. I’m thinking 0-0 tie or 1-1 tie. As for FC Copenhagen they have lost to St. Etienne who is in danger of relegation in French Ligue 1. St. Etienne has been playing great in UEFA, taking out Greek uber-champ Olympiakos in Greece 3-1, but still. They also only managed a tie against a mid-level Norwegian club. Manchester City will be healthy and playing more of their top players who sat in the Santander game they lost on the road. I will probably be taking 2-, then Man. City, followed by Lamont Mack, Mike Rosario or Fresno State.

February 18th, 2009 Picks

Yesterday was below average. Took Burnley instead of Luton Town; Burnley managed to score one goal on something like 15 shots and 12 shots on goal. Very disappointing for them and us Burnley pickers. I then took Hazell rather than Purdue or the over points prop. Hazell was getting trounced and then decided to make a flurry of threes, free throws, and shots to end up losing by one in the last three minutes. Then the Lakers made things easy by trouncing Atlanta and holding Horford to 6 points in 21 minutes. I’m going to call a perfect day today, so on to the picks.

1) CSKA Moscow @ Aston Villa – CSKA Moscow win or draw
2) Hamburg SV @ NEC Nijmegen – NEC Nijmegen win or draw
3) Denver @ Philadelphia – Philadelphia
4) Miami (FL) @ Florida State – Florida State
5) Providence @ Louisville – 147 points or more
6) Luke Harangody vs. Da’Sean Butler – Harangody has more points
7) Orlando @ New Orleans – New Orleans
8) Virginia Tech @ Virginia – Virginia
9) Kansas vs. North Carolina – Kansas has a larger margin of victory
10) Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Oklahoma State
11) Anaheim Ducks @ L.A. Kings – 5 goals or fewer

These picks are a mixture of research, gut instincts, and outside opinion. Past four days these picks have been 45-70% correct. Going with CSKA this morning, the Florida State, and then…. hmmm…. the 5 and under. All picks will be final by the time the grass hockey games start this morning. Good luck ever’buddy!

February 17th, 2009 Picks

Went 3-3-1 yesterday with my picks, so going 2-1 on my actual picks and losing the one by 1 point in overtime it was a pretty good day overall. SC Freiburg took control of their match after subbing in Rodionov for Iddrisou. Delaware State made a host of bad plays to go down by one to NC A&T in overtime. The Thrashers and Kings took care of business and tallied 6 goals in the first period. So on to the picks.

1) Coventry City @ Burnley – Burnley win
2) Brighton @ Luton Town – Luton Town win
3) Michigan State @ Purdue – Purdue
4) Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards – Minnesota
5) Buffalo @ Toronto – Buffalo
6) New Jersey @ Florida – New Jersey
7) Maryland @ Clemson – 145 points or over
8) Jeremy Hazell vs. Wesley Matthews – Hazell (by 4 points)
9) Kentucky @ Vanderbilt – Kentucky
10) Ottawa @ Colorado – Ottawa
11) Al Horford points vs. L.A. Lakers winning margin – Lakers winning margin

Probably going to roll with Burnley, then decide on the rest during game day. I like Hazell and the over and Purdue, so it’s a choice between those for the 2nd game. Then going with the Lakers winning margin. These teams are unchanged from the end of last year during which time Atlanta visited LA. Horford scored four points. The Lakers won by 29.

February 16th, 2009 Picks

Today was fairly good, went 3-2-0 with Atalanta, Illinois State, and Vancouver pulling me up and the Rangers and Valparaiso dragging me down. Today was also the day that saw me finally getting my red star! Now it’s on to the blue star. Razznmarbles in TACOS has gotten to W12 and should be on the leaderboard now, congratulations! Oh, and my picks for yesterday went 7-3-1; I’m having more and more of these above .600 days. And so, on to the picks.

1) Dustin Johnson vs. Rest of Field – Johnson wins
2) SC Freiburg @ Hansa Rostock – Freiburg wins
3) North Carolina A&T @ Delaware State – Delaware State
4) Pittsburgh @ Connecticut – Connecticut
5) Marist @ St. Peter’s – St. Peter’s
6) Texas @ Texas A&M – Texas
7) Atlanta @ Los Angeles – 6 goals or more

If I had to pick against myself here I would take Texas A&M. Delaware State has played against so many tough teams like Notre Dame, West Virginia, Kentucky, UCONN, Dayton, and Ohio State, their record is deceptive. I also like the 6 goals or more, with the Thrashers and Kings giving up a combined 6.24 goals per game and over 50% of their games ending with combined scores of 6 or more. Marist is 1-10 on the road and St. Peter’s is coming off solid wins over Canisius and Rider. Connecticut has Thabeet, they should be able to overcome Dyson’s absence at home. Any questions?

February 15th, 2009 Picks

Dang, today was a nice day for me. Our formula for picking who scores the most points matchups went 2-0 today. Kansas overcame a 16 point deficit to defeat Kansas State. The Austin Peay game was exciting as well. The teams had 5 points in the first six minutes and only 61 points by halftime. It looked to be over. Even though the teams were scoring at the right pace for most of the game those first six minutes had put ‘em in too deep of a hole. Well, thank goodness for 21 points in the final minute! The final game I decided to pick against myself and go with Nevada who scored five straight points in the final 1:17 to win 47-46. whew With that, it’s on to the picks.

1) AS Roma @ Atalanta – Atalanta win or draw
2) Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers – New York
3) Dustin Johnson vs. Rest of Field – Johnson wins
4) John Nolen vs. Rest of Field – Nolen wins
5) Rider @ Manhatten – Manhatten
6) San Jose Sharks @ New Jersey Devils – New Jersey
7) Dale Earnhardt Jr. vs. Jeff Gordon – Earnhardt Jr.
8) Illinois-Chicago @ Valparaiso – Valparaiso
9) Illinois State @ Drake – Illinois State
10) Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference – Western
11) Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver

I’m liking Atalanta, Manhatten, Valpo, and Illinois State most. Feel free to ask if you’d like more of the reasoning behind the picks. Happy taco =]