August 19th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Up to the 5 win mark again with the Americans taking 1^st and 3^rd in the 400m hurdles yesterday. The Tigers pulled off a nice win against Seattle to move a game further ahead of the White Sox in the division. With two outs and men on 2^nd and 3^rd Fernando Rodney got caught up in a battle with Jose Lopez. Lopez kept hitting the ball foul and had a full count. Rodney started throwing pitches high and inside, settling on a 99mph fastball. Finally with the 12^th pitch Rodney took the fastball down low, well out of the strike zone and got Lopez to whiff. End of game, Tigers win. It's good to have a dependable closer which most playoff bound teams do. Relief pitching made the difference tonight in two games with Boston winning and Texas losing and I suspect Boston's relief pitching will help land them the wild card spot in the AL. Well, on to the picks.

Picks
1) Ivo Karlovic vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu: 2 sets played vs. 3 sets - 2 sets
2) IAAF Men's Discus Final: Gerd Kanter vs. Any Other Throwers - Kanter
3) Maccabi Haifa @ FC Red Bull Salzburg - FC Red Bull Salzburg win
4) Manchester United (@ Burnley) vs. Liverpool (v. Stoke City) - Liverpool has a larger margin of victory
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians - Los Angeles
6) Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz vs. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind - Hill and Lind record more total bases
7) Florida Marlins @ Houston Astros - Houston
8) Los Angeles Galaxy @ Chicago Fire - Los Angeles win or draw
9) How Many Innings Will Rich Harden Last: 6¹/₃ or less vs. 6²/₃ or more - 6¹/₃ or less
10) St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
11) Minnesota Lynx @ Los Angeles Sparks - 76 points or fewer in the 1^st half

Previews & Notes
1) In the first round Paul-Henri Mathieu defeated world #46 Mischa Zverev 6-1 7-5 while Ivo Karlovic took down #13 Gael Monfils 6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(2). The results are on the official tournament website, here. Discounting Challengers matches Karlovic is 1-0 against Mathieu with a straight sets victory in Rome last year. SkyBet has Karlovic as a fairly heavy favorite to win this match. Karlovic is +110 to win in straight sets while Mathieu is at +350 for a straight sets win. For 3 set victories it's +275 and +450 for Karlovic and Mathieu, respectively. This is the first match of the day on court 3 so barring weather it should start right on time and be decided well in time for the next picks of the day.

2) Gerd Kanter is far and away the biggest individual favorite to win this event and is even favored against the field. SkyBet has him at -200 with the biggest challenger being Virgiljus Alekna at +350. When accounting for the sportsbooks profits and combining the odds for the field, however, Kanter is only about -115 against the field. The IAAF website has a good preview for the final. Highlights being that Kanter has won 28 straight discus events with his last loss coming in July of 2008 to none other than Alekna.