June 27th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-0-0 today, Cubs and Jacobs with the TKO in the nick of time. Crazy Cubs game it looks like, and some funny images from it as well. For example, I did not know that compared to Derrek Lee Jamie Fox looks like a grown up Wally from ``Leave It To Beaver". And so on to the picks.

Recaps

Young Guns Geovany Soto And Jamie Fox Smoke White Sox

Chicago Cubs 5 - 4 Chicago White Sox

Kevin Gregg ended the game with an inside pitch that was called a strike after having been called a ball for the rest of the inning. Marmol had a 54.00 ERA and 12.00 WHIP today while Sean Marshall got twice as many outs as he with a single pitch.

``Dye gave the White Sox a 1-0 lead in the first with his 17th homer. Jim Thome tied it at 2 in the fourth with a solo drive that broke an 0-for-13 slump after Fox -- who had three hits -- hit a two-run drive in the top half. But on a day when the ball was carrying, Soto landed the biggest blow after Fox singled with one out and Mike Fontenot reached on first baseman Paul Konerko's error. Fresh off the revelation that he tested positive for marijuana at the World Baseball Classic Soto, the 2008 Rookie of the Year, drove his seventh homer out to center to help send Contreras to his second straight loss. The Cubs hung on even though Carlos Marmol nearly blew it in the eighth. Jim Thome drove a two-run double off first baseman Derrek Lee's glove and Marmol then intentionally walked Paul Konerko to load the bases again. Sean Marshall came in and pinch hitter A.J. Pierzynski grounded into an inning-ending 3-2-3 double play on the first pitch."

Read more....Box Score

Daniel Jacobs Remains Unbeaten With Win In Tucson

D. Jacobs def. G. Walton by TKO (8^th round)

``Like a patient matador, Jacobs (17-0, 15 KOs) picked apart Walton, turning to his vicious uppercut whenever "Blaze" leaned in too close, trying to hit a home run. Tucsonan Bobby Ferrara stopped the fight 1:59 into the eighth round after Jacobs battered Walton against the ropes. Jacobs' TKO victory in front of about 1,800 fans at Desert Diamond Casino continued his steady climb up the middleweight division."

Read more....Round-By-Round

Picks
1) Radek Stepanek vs. David Ferrer - Ferrer
2) Tommy Haas vs. Marin Cilic - Cilic
3) Victor Hanescu vs. Gilles Simon - Hanescu
4) Kenny Perry vs. Anthony Kim - Perry cards a lower third round score
5) Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays - Philadelphia
6) Jason Leffler vs. Joey Logano - Logano has a better finishing position
7) Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox - White Sox
8) Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians - Cincinnati
9) San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - San Francisco
10) Florida Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
11) Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
12) Washington Mystics @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
13) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Seattle

1)

Having retired twice since May 10th Radek Stepanek (left) simply hopes he can avoid another injury. David Ferrer (right) is hoping he can step into the semifinals this year.

David Ferrer (current 52 week ATP ranking #21) and #23Radek Stepanek meet in the third round at Wimbledon. Neither played particularly well in the weekends between Roland Garros and this tournament with Ferrer losing in the quarterfinals at 's-Hertogenbosch to #81 Ivan Navarro in straight sets while Stepanek opted out of the grass court circuit to play in a clay tournament in Prostejov, Czech Republic. Stepanek was leading 6-2 1-1 over Pablo Cuevas before he was forced to retire after sustaining an ankle injury. Stepanek has not played an event in the three weeks from then until now and even as late as June 4^th reports were that he may miss Wimbledon altogether. The lack of news regarding his ankle suggests to me he has more or less fully recovered, but in a long 5 set match it could become an issue. That he's also had two retirements in a month suggests to me he is pushing his body by playing in Wimbledon.

Head to head Ferrer holds the edge at 3-2 but this will be the first time the two have met on a grass court. Ferrer won their most recent encounter at Roland Garros last year, a back and forth 5 set victory with each player dominating individual sets. Both players have done well to get to the third round though neither has faced anyone ranked higher than #80 to this point. Ferrer has done better of the two, in my opinion, especially in terms of his return game. He has lost only one set so far, to Kevin Kim in the first round, and defeated #66 Fabio Fognini in straight sets in the second round while winning 54% of his receiving points. Stepanek has not played exceptional by any means, but he has played well enough to win. His second round match against #80 Potito Starace went five sets, but it was more due to Starace playing a strong match than Stepanek playing poorly.

Overall, neither player has an overpowering serve in the 130mph range. For Stepanek that is a good thing as he has had trouble historically against powerful services which are always an advantage on grass courts. Stepanek has committed fewer unforced errors in this tournament, though neither player has been error prone thus far. Each player have accumulated a total of 7 double faults through the first two rounds as well. The main area I give the advantage to Ferrer is in his return game where he has been able to dominate his opponents. Stepanek will not be so easy to win receiving points against, but I think Ferrer will convert an extra break point or two and those will be the match deciding games.

Tommy Haas (left) and Marin Cilic (right) gave it their all yesterday to take it to a first to win two consecutive sets match today.

2) Tommy Haas and Marin Cilic had their match suspended yesterday due to darkness all tied at 6 games apiece in the fifth set. It was a thriller of a match by all accounts and these highlightsHighlights and match report here show some terrific plays being made by both men.

With everything tied at 6 games each in the fifth set this match will come down to who can be first to win two consecutive sets. In other words, who will be the first to hold service and break service in consecutive sets. Looking at the match statistics from yesterday one can see that Haas committed fewer errors and was better at getting his first serve into play, but that Cilic won more of his first and second serves overall. Cilic also won a higher proportion of his receiving points and to me that is the single biggest factor in determining who is more likely to break serve. From the percentage of first serves in play and the percentage of first and second serves won Cilic is a bit more likely to win a point on any given serve (67% to 63% for Haas). Overall I like Cilic to win in this short form of the match.