A Bleak Look At Cash

Monday, June 22, 2009

June 22nd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Congratulations once again to the fathers of the world! 1-2-0 for me today as Pakistan broke me off a 2 game losing streak, but then Jurrjens and Lackey both fucked up in ways that only ended up being decisive by the time it was too late and the Braves and Angels fell to the better teams. In case anyone is wondering what happened to the mp3 player, the scores from CBS, or the hulu content they're still there, they just have to be turned on with one of the buttons up in the corner of the header. Well, on to the picks then.

Recaps

Incredible Afridi Six In 18^th Over Paves The Way For Pakistan's Victory

Pakistan 139/2 - Sri Lanka 138/6 (Pakistan win by 8 wickets)

``Sangakkara paced his innings expertly, reaching fifty off 44 balls despite the problems that surrounded him, but only found support when joined by Angelo Mathews. The final five overs brought 59 runs and if any attack could make a game out of 138 it was Sri Lanka's. Early wickets, however, were key and they didn't materialise as Akmal and Shahzaid Hasan played sensibly. The wizardry of Mendis and Muttiah Muralitharan and the accuracy of Lasith Malinga have provided wonderful entertainment over the last weeks, but on this occasion couldn't conjure the magic spell that was needed. Occasionally the tension rose as [Pakistan's] required rate climbed, but each time [Shahid] Afridi was on hand with one of his most mature innings. He hit consecutive balls from Muttiah Muralitharan for six and four in the 14th over, a calculated assault against a key bowler. The destination of the trophy was sealed when he swung a huge six over midwicket off Isuru Udana in the 18th over - the moment when Sangakkara gambled on one of his weaker bowling links - and followed that with another boundary off a high full toss."

Nick Green's First Pitch Walk Off Sinks Jurrjens, Braves

Boston Red Sox 6 - 5 Atlanta Braves

``Nick Green surprised the Boston Red Sox by overcoming long odds to make the team. On Sunday, he was surprised that his homer won the game. The shortstop who went to spring training as a non-roster player but is now the starter hit the first pitch in the bottom of the ninth just inside the right-field foul pole 302 feet from home plate. Wakefield allowed Brian McCann's two-run double in the first. The Red Sox went ahead with three runs in the first off Jair Jurrjens. Dustin Pedroia doubled and took third on an error when Jurrjens bobbled Kevin Youkilis' grounder. Jason Bay hit a sacrifice fly and David Ortiz gave the Red Sox a 3-2 lead with his sixth homer of the season, a two-run shot. A misplay that fell for a hit in the fourth led to Boston's fourth run."

Kershaw Excels As Loney's Home Run Lifts Dodgers Above Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers 5 - 3 Los Angeles Angels

``Clayton Kershaw was pulled 2½ weeks ago after giving up three runs and throwing 83 pitches in his worst outing of the season. On Sunday, he shut down a potent Los Angeles Angels lineup that leads the league in batting. Lackey, who has had an up and down season after missing the first six weeks with an elbow injury, didn't get much of a lift as the Angels left 12 on base. Juan Pierre had a pair of RBI doubles, Casey Blake hit an RBI single and the Dodgers had nine hits off Angels starter John Lackey. Loney's fourth homer of the season put the Dodgers ahead 4-0 after a brief review. The ball appeared to carom off a railing just above the wall in right-center and bounced back on the field. It was originally ruled a home run, and the call was upheld after the umpires looked at the replay."

Results From Group Play
England	Germany
Spain (2:0)	Finland (2:0)
Finland (2:1)	Spain (0:0)

Sunday, June 21, 2009

June 21st, 2009 Picks (Happy Fathers Day)

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(skip to picks)0-2-0 today for me. I utilized my special ability to select losing picks out of a crop of winners which is actually more helpful than it might seem at first glance. OK, it's really not helpful so much as frustrating but I try to put a positive spin on these kinds of things. Beckett got his first complete game shutout of the season and the Padres went down swinging. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Beckett Earns First Complete Game Shutout, Spoils Lowe's Return To Fenway

Boston Red Sox 3 - 0 Atlanta Braves (Beckett 7 K, 5 H)

``Josh Beckett allowed just five singles for his first shutout since joining the Red Sox, and Jason Varitek doubled twice against his ex-batterymate to lead Boston to a 3-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves on Saturday night. Beckett (8-3) rebounded after giving up a season-high 11 hits in his last outing, throwing just 94 pitches for his first complete game of the year and the sixth of his career. He struck out seven, walked none and only allowed one runner to reach second base to win for the sixth time in seven decisions. Lowe received a loud ovation when he left in the seventh, but Beckett's came at the end of the game, and it was even louder."

Wakefield	FLA	NYY	DET	@TOR	NYM	TOR
Gm.Score	55	43	49	23	37	69
Jurrjens	@CIN	PIT	MIL	@ARI	TOR	COL
Gm.Score	48	60	48	35	49	72
Negative	Bad	Mediocre	Quality	Gem
Click here for a definition of game scores.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

June 20th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-0-0 today with Tiger Woods carding over 70 in his first round of play. Looks like they got the first round finished but only a part of the way through the second round by 8:30pm EDT. I think they'll be fortunate to finish out the second round on Saturday and we'll be looking at a Monday finish for this tournament at the least. Looks like my evening picks failed, but my streak lives on. Oh, and the icons work to some degree now. Click on the 'H'ulu icon to see that widget, the mp3 icon for the player, etc., and just click on them again if you'd like to switch them off. Eventually you'll be able to drag the widgets around the page, but not for now. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Tiger Woods Falters, Ends First Round Tied For 79th

Rnd1: Woods 74 (T-79)

Woods was up at the top of the leaderboard until Hole No. 15.

``The problems started when Woods' tee shot found the right rough on the 15th hole. He had a good lie and decided to go for the green, but his ball embedded in the deep grass above a greenside bunker. He took his drop and chipped on, but the ball rolled back toward him, and Woods three-putted, lipping out a 2-footer for bogey. Woods' ball picked up some mud after he hit his drive at the 16th hole -- the fourth time that had happened on Friday. He missed the green and then missed a 6-footer for par. The bogey at the 18th hole came similarly for Woods, who used 31 putts."

Picks
1) Tiger Woods' Score After First 9 Holes (#10-#18): 34 or lower vs. 35 or higher - 34 or lower
2) South Africa vs. Spain - 2 goals or fewer
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets - Tampa Bay
5) Los Angeles Galaxy @ San Jose Quakes - San Jose
6) Wladimir Klitschko vs. Rushlan Chagaev - Any other result
7) Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals - Toronto
8) New York Yankees @ Florida Marlins - Florida
9) Atlanta Braves hits off Beckett vs. Josh Beckett strikeouts - Braves hits off Beckett
10) Brad Keselowski vs. Carl Edwards - Edwards has a lower finishing position
11) Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
12) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle

Previews

The approach to the elevated green on #15 which gave Woods so much trouble yesterday. He should be able to avoid a penalty stroke in drier conditions.

1) Tiger Woods had a difficult time on the course yesterday, in the early morning, before much of the previous days moisture had a chance to evaporate. His scorecard from the first round

shows he started out well enough before a few mud balls and an embedded ball on the 15^th hole forced him to take a penalty stroke.

Well, the rain has had all day Friday to dry out and will continue to do so up until Tiger tees off at 10:06am EDT as the area remained dry through the evening and night hours. There looks to be rain moving in

to the area, however, in the early afternoon. At worst it would see Tiger playing in light rain for the last 3 or 4 holes of the back 9. You can also check out WeatherBonk to forecast the weather for the area and look in on live webcams throughout the region. If you want to get an idea for the course here is the best hole-by-hole overview of Bethpage I've found so far. As long as Woods can avoid getting into trouble after #14, and the weather doesn't worsen suddenly, a 34 is well within his reach on the back 9 today.

Keep Track With USGA.com's Interactive Leaderboard

South Africa could lose a place in the semifinals should Iraq defeat New Zealand and Bafana Bafana fail to secure a point.

With a win Spain would become the all-time leaders in consecutive international victories with 15.

2) The Furia Roja have booked their spot in the semifinals of the Confederations Cup after having taken their first two games in Group A, a 5-0 drubbing of New Zealand and a 1-0 win over a stolid Iraq side. South Africa come in at second place with a 2-0 win over New Zealand and a 0-0 draw against Iraq, leaving them three points clear of the Iraqis and three goals ahead in differential. South Africa will guarantee their spot in the semifinals along Spain should they win or come away with a draw. That seems to be a tall order against a Spanish side that has gone 31-0-3 (W-D-L), not including a penalty kick win over Italy in Euro 2008, and has outscored their opponents 71 to 11 since a friendly loss to Romania in 2006. Even if South Africa lose, however, they could still qualify for the semifinals under three conditions: 1) Iraq loses to New Zealand; 2) Iraq draws; or 3) Iraq's margin of victory is less than three goals greater than South Africa's margin of defeat. If it is three goals exactly then whichever team had scored more goals in the competition would advance, followed by other tie breakers eventually leading to the drawing of lots if those fail to separate the two teams.

``Once you're winning you want to maintain the momentum, so for us it is very important to win and not draw tomorrow."
---Spain goalkeeper Pepe Reina

The match between Iraq and New Zealand will take place at the same time as the South African's tie, however, so they will not be looking to take any chances against Spain. South Africa's coach, Joel Santana, has said they must look to attack if they wish to achieve a positive result but must also be mindful on defense so as not to lose their advantage on goal differential to the Iraqis. Santana appears to be realistic in not expecting to earn a clean sheet against Spain and will need a goal for a draw or win, while indicating he would still like Bafana Bafana to focus on defense. As for Spain, they will be looking to give some of their players some rest ahead of their semifinal matches against Brazil, Italy, or Egypt, whoever they may draw against. One of the front men will almost certainly be rested for the match, with Fernando Llorente or Daniel Guiza coming in to replace them. The BBC reports Fernando Torres is the most likely striker to be rested by Spanish coach Vicente del Bosque, though Villa may take the role of substitute, or both. Pepe Reina is set to replace Iker Casillas in goal, while Xavi and Juan Mata also look to be rested. Additionally, defenders Sergio Ramos and Carlos Marchena may see limited action if they start at all. Make no mistake, however. Whoever the Spain fields in their Starting XI will be filled to the brim with incredibly gifted footballers.

Possible Starting XI's (goal.com)
South Africa: Khune, Booth, Gaxa, Masilela, Davids, Mokoena, Sibaya, Pienaar, Modise, Mashego, Parker.

Spain: Reina, Ramos, Arbeloa, Pique, Capdevila, Riera, Fabregas, Alonso, Cazorla, Villa, Guiza

Click here to view a wide range of articles on this match from both teams' point of view. South Africa is talking a big game, Spain is cautioning themselves on being too satisfied with their history making success, and the rugby pitch at Bloemfontein remains an obstacle to each teams' offensive style.

6) Vitali Wladimirovich Klitschko will be fighting Ruslan Chagaev in Berlin, Germany (1pm EDT) in front of 60,000 roaring fans. It will be the biggest crowd to watch a boxing match in Germany since 1939, when Max Schmeling fought Adolf Heuser in front of 70,000 in Stuttgart. Klitschko sports a 52-3 record, with those losses coming early in his career (2003 and earlier). The vast majority (over 90%) of his victories have come by knockout or technical knockout. His opponent, Chagaev, is undefeated with a 25-0 record, including an impressive split decision victory over Nikolay Valuev in 2007. The match is being held in Germany and I'll take SkyBet's British odds on this one which have a victory by Klitschko via decision as the single most favored result. Overall then, accounting for the sportsbooks' profits the KO/TKO by Klitschko comes out to 46.4% with any other result being favored at 53.6%.

9) Beckett appears to either dominate this kind of matchup by flirting with the no-hitter, or lose by a small margin in general. It also looks like he's either in the groove, or not. Based on his last performance against Philadelphia I'm going to say he's not in a groove right now. Over his career against the Braves' batting order he has averaged one fewer batter faced per hit given up than per strikeout.

Is Beckett due for another string of low strikeout starts? You be the judge.

Friday, June 19, 2009

June 19th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)Well, well, 0-0-0 for my streak today as I had little time to consider any of the matchups. Surprisingly my blog picks still went 6-3-3, so hey maybe I'm onto something here and will be able to put together a week straight of 50%-plus winners. The layout changes have been slow going, especially making animated icons. Eventually those logos in the corner there will be clickable and the corresponding widget will fade into view to be used. So on to some picks.

Picks
1) Tiger Woods' First Round Score: 69 or lower vs. 70 or higher - 70 or higher
2) Italy U21 vs. Sweden U21 - Sweden win or draw
3) Who Will Card A Lower 1^st Round Score: Rory McIlroy vs. Dustin Johnson - McIlroy win
4) How Many Holes Under Par Will Phil Mickelson Card: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 4 or more
5) Serbia vs. Belarus - 2 goals or fewer
6) LSU vs. Arkansas - 11 runs or more
7) Cleveland Indians @ Chicago Cubs - Cleveland
8) Texas vs. Arizona State - Arizona State
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets - Tampa Bay
10) Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds - Chicago
11) St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
12) Roy Oswalt vs. Kevin Slowey - Slowey allows fewer hits
13) Fernando Beltran Jr. vs. Monty Meza Clay - Meza Clay
14) Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres - Oakland
15) Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco

Previews
1) The first round of the U.S. Open at Bethpage State Park got off to a rocky start as heavy rains inundated the course eventually forcing suspension of play just before 2:00pm EDT. All of the morning groups teed off, but the furthest any of them got was 11 holes, with Tiger Woods' group ending up on the green of #7.

Tiger Woods requests a spot on the course be squeegeed as dictated by the rules.

Woods was at +1 to par with an 8 foot putt for par on the 7^th hole when play was suspended. If he were to make the putt when play resumes this morning he would need to shoot at least 2 under par to hit 69 or better on the par 70 course. That may not sound like much, but the Black course at Bethpage is one of the most difficult on the Tour, this year or any other year. For one the course this year measures 7,426 yards with multiple par-4's over 500 yards in length and a monstrous 600 yard par 5 on the back 9. Another difficult aspect of the course are the enormous bunkers

bordering both sides of many fairways and greens. Golf Club Atlas has a very nice article expanding on just what it is about the design of Bethpage Black which makes it so difficult.

The course will be plenty wet come morning despite the efforts of tournament organizers and volunteers. On the one hand this will make the greens play very soft, allowing golfers to place their shots closer to the hole without worrying about the ball rolling past and off the green. This benefits most pro golfers, but the drawback to this is that the fairways will also play soft. This means the ball will not bounce and roll after the tee shot, cutting 10-40 yards off each players overall drive at the very least. With the course being so long to begin with this will make the green of a 500 yard par-4 very difficult to reach in regulation, let alone to save par. One thing to keep in mind is that should the conditions on the course be difficult enough tournament officials are within their rights to move players up to a closer tee box:

``Some tees were moved up for the first round in an effort to be fair to the players who were already dealing with adverse conditions. No. 7, one of the U.S. Open-record three 500-plus-yard par 4s at Bethpage Black, was moved up to the penultimate tee box and played 36 yards shorter than the 525 yards on the scorecard."

Even if this allowance is made on some of the longer holes it will still be a difficult proposition to play birdie golf. In 2002 when Tiger Woods won the U.S. Open here at Bethpage he carded a 72 hole -3 to par, and led the field by three strokes. For him to remain at +1 to par by the end of the first round would be a fine accomplishment for Woods and to shoot 2 under par on the remaining 11 holes would be an tremendous feat.

Keep Up With The Leaderboard | Or Watch Live Video From USGA

The Swedish Under-21 national team looks to extend their unbeaten streak to five matches.

The trio of Balotelli, Acquafresca, and Giovinco hope to lead Italy to their first win since last October.

2) Italy are in desperate need of points after earning only one in a 0-0 draw against Serbia's Under-21 team. Now they will face host nation Sweden with the requirement of earning all three points from the match if they are to hold their fate in their own hands. Otherwise, the Azzurini will be relying on other teams in their group to lose or draw to keep them in the running to advance to the semifinal stage. Sweden are hosts and so automatically qualified for the tournament. Because they did not have to qualify this will be only their second non-friendly match at this level in two years. Their first was the 5-1 victory over Belarus earlier in the week.

Goal.com carries a preview of the match and note that both sides will be at full strength. They give the impression of Italy being the far more talented team, but given their results over the first half of this year they still have some issues with team chemistry and discipline. The Swedes, on the other hand, appear to be in top form, despite having gone through 70 players in the two years since their last major competition.

Recent Form/Results
Sweden	Italy
Belarus (5:1)	Serbia (0:0)
Estonia (2:1)	Netherlands (1:1)
Poland (2:1)	Austria (2:2)
Spain (0:0)	Sweden (1:1)
Finland (0:1)	Germany (1:0)
Scores reported in (home:away) format

Italy played a friendly match earlier this year in Trieste against Sweden with the result being a 1-1 draw. Some additions and subtractions have been made to each squad, but for the most part these are the same two sides who met back in February and they know each other very well. The match will pit two star strikers against one another. Sweden's Marcus Berg scored a hat trick against Belarus and is playing terrific football right now. Italy's Mario Balotelli struggled against a tough Serbian defense in their last match but will be looking to make amends. Overall, I think Sweden and Italy are well-matched on paper, and with being in better form at the moment they have a very good chance of winning this match outright. SkyBet has Italy as 5/4 (+125) favorites, with Sweden at 15/8 (+185), and the draw at 9/4 (+225), which would make Sweden winning or drawing a decent favorite at 59.6% odds to 40.4% for Italy to win.

``They are two great strikers, but I think Balotelli has a more individual style, while Berg plays more for the team so I think he fits better in our side." ---Sweden coach Jörgen Lennartsson regarding whether he would exchange Berg for Balotelli

``I don't think there is any rule not allowing me to replace Balotelli during a game. I took him off after 70 minutes as he was not having a great night and he had been booked." ---Italy coach Pierluigi Casiraghi when questioned about subbing for Balotelli against Belarus

4) So after all that about how difficult Bethpage is

and how hard it would be to shoot -2 to par with 11 holes one might be wondering how Mickelson could be expected to card four holes under par. Well, it would take a number of holes over par, because he is not going to be carding a 66 or better today at Bethpage. Conditions were rainy last time the USGA held the U.S. Open at Bethpage in 2002. Looking at his scorecard

from that tournament Mickelson had one round under par that year, but three rounds with four or more holes under par. Mickelson has a monster drive and so he will be able to take advantage of those wet greens without being bogged down as badly on the wet fairways. It won't be easy for Lefty, but he's been one of the best golfers on the Tour this year.

Keep Up With The Leaderboard | Or Watch Live Video From USGA

Belarus played Serbia in qualification for the Euro U21's, a 1-1 home draw and a 3-1 away loss.

Serbia will be without Nemanja Matić while Nemanja Tomić will be limited.

5) Serbia may have injuries to deal with, but Belarus have being dominated by Sweden to answer for. After losing 5-1 and allowing a hat trick by Marcus Berg the Belarussians, and Sergei Kislyak in particular, are desperate to prove they belong in this competition. They made it through the qualifying stage and looked far better than they did against the Swedes, but it will be hard for them to turn things so completely around. Serbia and Belarus played one another twice in the qualifying stage with Serbia claiming three points with a 3-1 victory at home and coming away with one point in a 1-1 draw in Belarus. UEFA provides a few articles on each team and this match which give an idea of the mindset for each squad. Serbia know they need to score goals and come away with three points while Belarus are simply determiend to achieve a positive result from the match. Goal.com provides a preview where they note the absence of Nemanja Matić and Nemanja Tomić for Serbia and predict a 3-1 win for Serbia. Oddsmakers have 3 goals or more favored with SkyBet in particular putting over 2.5 at 8/11 compared to even odds for under 2.5 goals. Looking at the two sides' recent results, however, shows 80% of their matches have come in under. I think Belarus will be determined to avoid another landslide defeat and will limit the scoring. It will be close, but I see a 2-1 win for Serbia or a 1-1 draw.

Recent Form/Results
Belarus	Serbia
Sweden (5:1)	Italy (0:0)
Moldova (2:2)	Romania (1:1)
Finland (1:0)	Ukraine (0:0)
Germany (1:1)	Cyprus (0:2)
Turkey (2:0)	Israel (2:3)
Scores reported as (home:away)

12) If you look at Roy Oswalt's and Kevin Slowey's stats from this season you'll see that Oswalt gives up fewer hits on average, hands down. He has a .274 bat against average and a 1.07 HIP compared to Slowey's .307 bat against average and 1.26 HIP. Both pitchers are right-handed and not surprisingly both do better against right handed batters. Here are the lineups for tonight's game. Both teams have some solid hitters on their side. The difference here is that the very best batters for the Twins are left-handed (Morneau, Mauer, Kubel) whereas Houston's top men are right handed (Lee, Pence, Tejada). I think that could be the deciding factor in this one.

A Bleak Look At Cash

And So It Goes....

Monday, June 22, 2009

June 22nd, 2009 Picks

Sunday, June 21, 2009

June 21st, 2009 Picks (Happy Fathers Day)

Saturday, June 20, 2009

June 20th, 2009 Picks

Friday, June 19, 2009

June 19th, 2009 Picks

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A Bleak Look At Cash

And So It Goes....

Monday, June 22, 2009

June 22nd, 2009 Picks

Sunday, June 21, 2009

June 21st, 2009 Picks (Happy Fathers Day)

Saturday, June 20, 2009

June 20th, 2009 Picks

Friday, June 19, 2009

June 19th, 2009 Picks

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