Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Saturday, June 20, 2009

June 20th, 2009 Picks

(skip to picks)1-0-0 today with Tiger Woods carding over 70 in his first round of play. Looks like they got the first round finished but only a part of the way through the second round by 8:30pm EDT. I think they'll be fortunate to finish out the second round on Saturday and we'll be looking at a Monday finish for this tournament at the least. Looks like my evening picks failed, but my streak lives on. Oh, and the icons work to some degree now. Click on the 'H'ulu icon to see that widget, the mp3 icon for the player, etc., and just click on them again if you'd like to switch them off. Eventually you'll be able to drag the widgets around the page, but not for now. So on to the picks.


Tiger Woods Falters, Ends First Round Tied For 79th
Rnd1: Woods 74 (T-79)
Woods was up at the top of the leaderboard until Hole No. 15.
``The problems started when Woods' tee shot found the right rough on the 15th hole. He had a good lie and decided to go for the green, but his ball embedded in the deep grass above a greenside bunker. He took his drop and chipped on, but the ball rolled back toward him, and Woods three-putted, lipping out a 2-footer for bogey. Woods' ball picked up some mud after he hit his drive at the 16th hole -- the fourth time that had happened on Friday. He missed the green and then missed a 6-footer for par. The bogey at the 18th hole came similarly for Woods, who used 31 putts."
Read more....Leaderboard (After Rnd. 1)Woods' ScorecardVideo: Woods Post-Round Press Conference

1) Tiger Woods' Score After First 9 Holes (#10-#18): 34 or lower vs. 35 or higher - 34 or lower
2) South Africa vs. Spain - 2 goals or fewer
3) Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets - Tampa Bay
5) Los Angeles Galaxy @ San Jose Quakes - San Jose
6) Wladimir Klitschko vs. Rushlan Chagaev - Any other result
7) Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals - Toronto
8) New York Yankees @ Florida Marlins - Florida
9) Atlanta Braves hits off Beckett vs. Josh Beckett strikeouts - Braves hits off Beckett
10) Brad Keselowski vs. Carl Edwards - Edwards has a lower finishing position
11) Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
12) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle


The approach to the elevated green on #15 which gave Woods so much trouble yesterday. He should be able to avoid a penalty stroke in drier conditions.
1) Tiger Woods had a difficult time on the course yesterday, in the early morning, before much of the previous days moisture had a chance to evaporate. His scorecard from the first round shows he started out well enough before a few mud balls and an embedded ball on the 15th hole forced him to take a penalty stroke.

Well, the rain has had all day Friday to dry out and will continue to do so up until Tiger tees off at 10:06am EDT as the area remained dry through the evening and night hours. There looks to be rain moving in

to the area, however, in the early afternoon. At worst it would see Tiger playing in light rain for the last 3 or 4 holes of the back 9. You can also check out WeatherBonk to forecast the weather for the area and look in on live webcams throughout the region. If you want to get an idea for the course here is the best hole-by-hole overview of Bethpage I've found so far. As long as Woods can avoid getting into trouble after #14, and the weather doesn't worsen suddenly, a 34 is well within his reach on the back 9 today.

South Africa could lose a place in the semifinals should Iraq defeat New Zealand and Bafana Bafana fail to secure a point.
With a win Spain would become the all-time leaders in consecutive international victories with 15.
2) The Furia Roja have booked their spot in the semifinals of the Confederations Cup after having taken their first two games in Group A, a 5-0 drubbing of New Zealand and a 1-0 win over a stolid Iraq side. South Africa come in at second place with a 2-0 win over New Zealand and a 0-0 draw against Iraq, leaving them three points clear of the Iraqis and three goals ahead in differential. South Africa will guarantee their spot in the semifinals along Spain should they win or come away with a draw. That seems to be a tall order against a Spanish side that has gone 31-0-3 (W-D-L), not including a penalty kick win over Italy in Euro 2008, and has outscored their opponents 71 to 11 since a friendly loss to Romania in 2006. Even if South Africa lose, however, they could still qualify for the semifinals under three conditions: 1) Iraq loses to New Zealand; 2) Iraq draws; or 3) Iraq's margin of victory is less than three goals greater than South Africa's margin of defeat. If it is three goals exactly then whichever team had scored more goals in the competition would advance, followed by other tie breakers eventually leading to the drawing of lots if those fail to separate the two teams.
``Once you're winning you want to maintain the momentum, so for us it is very important to win and not draw tomorrow."
---Spain goalkeeper Pepe Reina

The match between Iraq and New Zealand will take place at the same time as the South African's tie, however, so they will not be looking to take any chances against Spain. South Africa's coach, Joel Santana, has said they must look to attack if they wish to achieve a positive result but must also be mindful on defense so as not to lose their advantage on goal differential to the Iraqis. Santana appears to be realistic in not expecting to earn a clean sheet against Spain and will need a goal for a draw or win, while indicating he would still like Bafana Bafana to focus on defense. As for Spain, they will be looking to give some of their players some rest ahead of their semifinal matches against Brazil, Italy, or Egypt, whoever they may draw against. One of the front men will almost certainly be rested for the match, with Fernando Llorente or Daniel Guiza coming in to replace them. The BBC reports Fernando Torres is the most likely striker to be rested by Spanish coach Vicente del Bosque, though Villa may take the role of substitute, or both. Pepe Reina is set to replace Iker Casillas in goal, while Xavi and Juan Mata also look to be rested. Additionally, defenders Sergio Ramos and Carlos Marchena may see limited action if they start at all. Make no mistake, however. Whoever the Spain fields in their Starting XI will be filled to the brim with incredibly gifted footballers.

Possible Starting XI's (goal.com)
South Africa: Khune, Booth, Gaxa, Masilela, Davids, Mokoena, Sibaya, Pienaar, Modise, Mashego, Parker.

Spain: Reina, Ramos, Arbeloa, Pique, Capdevila, Riera, Fabregas, Alonso, Cazorla, Villa, Guiza

Click here to view a wide range of articles on this match from both teams' point of view. South Africa is talking a big game, Spain is cautioning themselves on being too satisfied with their history making success, and the rugby pitch at Bloemfontein remains an obstacle to each teams' offensive style.

6) Vitali Wladimirovich Klitschko will be fighting Ruslan Chagaev in Berlin, Germany (1pm EDT) in front of 60,000 roaring fans. It will be the biggest crowd to watch a boxing match in Germany since 1939, when Max Schmeling fought Adolf Heuser in front of 70,000 in Stuttgart. Klitschko sports a 52-3 record, with those losses coming early in his career (2003 and earlier). The vast majority (over 90%) of his victories have come by knockout or technical knockout. His opponent, Chagaev, is undefeated with a 25-0 record, including an impressive split decision victory over Nikolay Valuev in 2007. The match is being held in Germany and I'll take SkyBet's British odds on this one which have a victory by Klitschko via decision as the single most favored result. Overall then, accounting for the sportsbooks' profits the KO/TKO by Klitschko comes out to 46.4% with any other result being favored at 53.6%.

9) Beckett appears to either dominate this kind of matchup by flirting with the no-hitter, or lose by a small margin in general. It also looks like he's either in the groove, or not. Based on his last performance against Philadelphia I'm going to say he's not in a groove right now. Over his career against the Braves' batting order he has averaged one fewer batter faced per hit given up than per strikeout.
Is Beckett due for another string of low strikeout starts? You be the judge.


  1. Reasoning behind San Jose Win? I thought you said you always pick the Win or Draw whenever the teams are relatively close to each other in the standing, and in this case LA is higher than San Jose. The only thing I can think of is that LA will be without Donovan.

  2. LA without Donovan and San Jose not finishing the season with ZERO losses at home... haven't looked into it much more than that. But from what I've seen of the Galaxy they have no hope of scoring w/o Donovan creating something.

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  4. Err... with L.A. finishing the season with zero losses on the road... did I get that right?

  5. You forgot to mention that Valuev is a giant. OR a regular size guy who fights midgets: