Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

click it

Monday, January 3, 2011

Sports Betting Stats, Mighty High Coup, Self-Scientific, Burnell Washburn

(skip nerd shit)
Skellam P.D.F. for West Bromwich Albion & Fulham F.C.

All data from WorldFootball.net

Alright, so above is a Skellam distribution. It's like a Gaussian distribution, except instead of being the probability for a single random variable X, it's the probability of the difference of two Poisson variables, X-Y.

Poisson variables are ones that occur at random intervals, but with an overall time average, like nuclear radiation. This average is the mean of the distribution and completely determines the probability distribution.

So say you had some radioactive materials, and they're hooked up to a balance such that if the second material becomes 5 grams lighter than the first material a button will be pressed that ignites a nuclear bomb fueled by both materials. Damn. Stakes are high. Do you have anything to worry about?

Skellam distribution.

Put in the half-lives (means) for the materials and check out the probability for A-B > 5. If I had more time and skill I'd put a widget up here specifically so you could check these kinds of every day things. As it stands, we'll just use this for sports betting and odds-making.

In this case the random event is a point being scored. The 'materials' are the opposing teams, the 'half-lives' are the average goals per unit each team scores, and the 'nuclear explosion' is your bank account blowing up.
(Well, not really, since the bookmakers use this method and extensions of it, and then go ahead and artificially set the odds so they add up to over 100% chance for either team winning, and arbitrage the situation to ensure they profit no matter the outcome, much like a hedge fund but arbitrage-ier.)

Hit me up if you're in school now and can get *this* article. I don't want to have to park at or bus to the University.

Now that there above tired me the fuck out. So I'll just leave you with another soulful funk mix, this time by the great Mogpaws over at Invisible Friends. Hit play below, or go directly to their site.
Medium Beneath Media. Bang Around.

Face The MusicHa Ha. Thanks. - Bullett EP

Fade Away.
Burnell Washburn

Face The MusicHa Ha. Thanks. - Bullett EP

This is the first three songs from The White Dove EP (2010). You can find it in Utah, or hit up Burnell at his |___|Space.

Chace Infinite, DJ Khalil, egawd.

Mighty High Coup

Face The MusicHa Ha. Thanks. - Bullett EP

Face The Music (Haha!) From "To The Moon", which you can pre-order at their site. Ricky Raw, A-Bomb, Mr. SOS

P.S. Hit me up if you would appreciate having the new Stones Throw cast w/o iTunes. We can discuss how nice it would be to have.

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